Thank you very much for your answer! I completely agree with you about the other references that could fuel the discussions! My original post unfortunately oversimplified this matter too much.You make a very good points there when it comes to your concern about a manga forum, and I for the most part agree with you. However, as someone who has been following the industry for a couple years now, I would like to put forth the argument that I believe discussions around manga sales would be pretty similar to the current discussions here surrounding video game sales.
There are many points of reference when it comes to discussions how well a manga will sell and if it will survive in the long term: Oricon’s weekly Top 50 rankings and sales, Shoseki’s weekly Top 500 rankings and estimations, Amazon pre-order rankings, circulation numbers for said manga (most surviving manga get these), social media engagement (mostly Twitter and YouTube, but I know of a manga that was saved by TikTok), the state of the magazine the manga is currently running in, the amount of views each chapter has (if the magazine is digital), awards, TV show promotions, and of course adaptations of said manga. Most of these factors, if not all, do come into play.
I will disagree with the chapter rule only being true for Jump though! Other magazines use that, too; the last example I can think of was Weekly Shounen Sunday's Ping Kong, which was canceled with 14 chapters. I believe that this rule is less prevalent right now because of magazines having a hard time finding a stable lineup, thus giving more breath space for newest series. Regarding the Phantom Seer situation, these happen every now and then, the most notable one I can think of is Illegal Rare.From what I hear, that 8-chapter rule really only applies to Jump, and came during a time where the magazine was far more cutthroat. You are right about ToC, though (one bottom ranking isn’t too bad - the alarms go off only when the series keeps staying at the bottom). Phantom Seer, to be honest, is a truly weird case that I can only reasonably chalk up to editorial bias (bias being another common discussion in here, especially when it comes to certain third-parties differing attitudes towards Sony and Nintendo). There hasn’t really been a situation quite like it since in Jump.
Also, while Shueisha (the company behind Jump) is so far ahead of other publishers when it comes to establishing an overseas presence, international volume sales still very much pale in comparison to domestic. Most magazines still primarily look at a manga’s popularity in Japan when deciding their fate. (See: Red Hood and Time Paradox Ghostwriter)
I have concerns of derailing regarding chapter discussions specifically, but I agree that Install Base userbase is probably mature enough to not let things like that happen frequently!I personally think many people who are really into manga sales to talk on this forum are aware that their personal opinion doesn’t matter at all when it comes to sales, as there are a ton of different factors to consider when it comes to how well a manga’s doing. Of course, a manga’s general appeal is one of them, which is definitely the most prone to derailing discussion, but appeal has also been a talking point in video game sales as well.
Glad to hear that Josu_ke is interested! Their work is really good!I’m not sure about Sakaki, per se, but I did contact Josu_ke through Discord and he really likes the idea of a manga thread here and he’d be happy to help. He just needs to get his invitation here accepted first. XD