The Steam Deck - What kind of market performance do we expect from Valve's portable gaming PC?
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I don't think most people are saying that, to be fair?
Switch is kind of a like a runaway train at this point, at least for this product cycle and probably the next (assuming they stick to the "apple-like continuous platform" strategy)
And, in handheld space, Nintendo never loses. This track record is one thing to consider too. An incumbent, with a lower price, exclusive content, and simpler games will be more treat for switch than a powerful beef PC game portable, bigger price, and with no exclusive software. One portable take all indie games away from the Nintendo software pipeline will damage more than a Valve portable, and track history of Valve does not help at all.
PC has a hundred times more exclusives than Nintendo every year.
And again, we are in the 4th year of the Switch, the Deck doesn't compete with a brand new handheld. Most Nintendo Fans who wanted a Switch because of Nintendo Exclusives already got it.
99% of 3rd-party releases will release at the same time, or in most cases, first on Steam. And let's not mention that nearly all of Microsoft Exclusives and in the future nearly all of Sony Exclusives will also be on the Deck.
The Meme "would be great for Switch" started not because there is an abundance of games on the Switch. The meme exists because Switch owners want more quality 3rd-party games on the System.
The Deck has, what other competitors against Nintendo Handhelds could only dream off: A 50k Games ready library with customers already owning a big chunk of games.
Nintendo has to convince their playerbase into investing in a new library and hardware every 5 years or so, and it wasn't that successful in that regard. While the Deck can just exist and be another great thing about the Steam Platform.
For the record I believe Steam Deck will get the majority of it's initial sales from people plugged into the Steam ecosystem. Limiting factors are the Steam account requirement, online-only sales model and the uncertainty attached to devices like this.
If a year goes by with glowing user reviews about how easy it is to buy, use and how reliable and comfortable it is then the uncertainty issue will be partly addressed.
Then there is the visibility. Debuting the thing on IGN and flying tech reviewers big and small to the HQ for a hands on is a great strategy for people plugged into gaming tech. But if ads appear online & on TV and Steam Deck also appearing not just in the Amazon store but also physically in-store that will fix that factor.
Lastly you don't need a PSN or XBL account to buy a PS5DE or XSS even though you need one to use them. It's a simple distinction but a very important one. The solution above will also fix this.
If they can establish a distribution business or find a distribution partner to help get it on shelves I believe the majority of it's sales wouldn't come from potential Switch customers, even though it's an altogether superior product, but instead by having a similar button layout, similar library and focus on cutting edge technology it will start to eat voraciously into Xbox Series S and X part of the pie.
If a year goes by with glowing user reviews about how easy it is to buy, use and how reliable and comfortable it is then the uncertainty issue will be partly addressed.
Then there is the visibility. Debuting the thing on IGN and flying tech reviewers big and small to the HQ for a hands on is a great strategy for people plugged into gaming tech. But if ads appear online & on TV and Steam Deck also appearing not just in the Amazon store but also physically in-store that will fix that factor.
Lastly you don't need a PSN or XBL account to buy a PS5DE or XSS even though you need one to use them. It's a simple distinction but a very important one. The solution above will also fix this.
If they can establish a distribution business or find a distribution partner to help get it on shelves I believe the majority of it's sales wouldn't come from potential Switch customers, even though it's an altogether superior product, but instead by having a similar button layout, similar library and focus on cutting edge technology it will start to eat voraciously into Xbox Series S and X part of the pie.
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Whoah, even coming from a fellow Pre-Orderer (Decker? Deckmate? Deck-kin?) lets not get ahead of ourselves
I get that you are probably basing on technical merits, which are drf stimulating. But just want to be fair when noting there are very significant other vectors going into what defines a Product where Deck is utterly unproven.
For instance, the pricing still puts it out of the orbit of loads of potential customers.
Other vectors would include form-factor (Likely loads of potential users would prefer a smaller, lighter portable), demonstrated reliability (prototypes are EZ, mass manufacture is Hard) and ease-of-use.
Let me expound on that last one.
I respect what Valve has and is bringing to the table in lowering the barrier for picking up PC gaming, and the new interface is looking slick. However I just had an issue where Larian kinda bricked Divinity 2 on linux for awhile due to an update, and it wasnt super-duper straightforward how to fix yourself.
Now, for me, Im frustrated but Im OK. I can figure it out! But so many other potential users? Thats a dealbreaker.
In other words, there is a ton of product value that stems from how easy and reliable a product is to pick up and play. Switch, while not perfect, does an awesome job of this. The jury is out on how well Deck will achieve this.
So you forget history, you forget the up entry-level (100-150 dollars plus Steam Deck) against 300 dollars´ Switch. You forget good exclusivity, good exclusivities, not PC and Steam Deck multiplatform indies. A 50k game is ready and the big ones not working on Proton. The problem your analyzis is based on promises and potential not in fact. The entry-level for hybrid experience is more than $ 200,00 bucks for a similar hybrid experience. If you need a handheld experience is the same $ 200,00. What is the market for portable accessory, one PC second console, beyond the Valve hardcore fans? The Valve controller fails, that Valve console fails, why this will succeed and destroy Nintendo hybrid system? It´s blue strategy system? It´s a disruptive system? Does valve understands the portable market? Does valve understand the hybrid market? The switch has more than 3000 games now, 50k of games, all works for Steam Deck?
Which game that you want to play on Steam Deck does currently not work?
(That is in the context of not installing Windows/using a SD Card to boot Windows, because then ALL games work on Steam Deck from day 1)
For the love of God, can we stop with this false narrative? There has never been a "Valve console". Valve never released a Steam Machine of their own and had very little to do with what these PCs actually were (basically nothing more than small form factor PCs).
The Steam Controller didn't set the world on fire but I don't know if calling it a failure is correct (and getting sued for the design didn't help). The work they did served as the very basis for Steam Input which is one of the most impressive things about Steam as a platform. Without the SC, the Deck would look very different.
Where's the Index on this list of failures?
I'm not sure what this really even means. They don't have to understand "the market". The Deck is not reliant on being it's own separate ecosystem. It's a PC. It plays Steam games.
No matter how you feel about the device or its long term success, demand wont be an issue for a while so i dont think it makes sense to downplay the appeal of the system at this point - there is appeal and supply will be Valves biggest issue for the foreseeable future.
Same way i have to chuckle when consoles are selling out immediately and then i go online an see threads ala "plattform holder NEEDS to this because [insert some reasoning]" - these are all nice to haves but as of that moment the market has already spoken and demand is there.
It would be more interesting to discuss how the longterm plan looks like and how Valve is gonna position the system once the initial demand and fans have gotten their hands on it - lets say in mid 2023. As ILikeFeet posted on the last page.
Is Valve positioning the Deck as always having the somewhat best-in class mobile APU (at that price point) and update it accordingly while keeping the same price structure or even introduce more expensive SKUs. Or are they gonna stick to current specs for years to come and really try to establish as portable gaming PC baseline for a console like period of +4 years, while trying to sell it for even cheaper down the line. Is smaller cheaper SteamDeck Lite for 299 something that could happen ? What will things look like when Valve introduced their SteamDeck equivalent of a homeconsole ?
In general its interesting to see what their longterm plans are gonna look like and sadly we dont have much information on that yet which makes it much more difficult to predict where the system is gonna end up on a very broad spectrum of possible outcomes.
The amount of games being playable or it general appeal are kinda moot points to discuss - its a PC in the end and unless you have very specific needs in terms of entertainment you are gonna find something that if for you on it. This isnt your new gen console launch with 20 launch games, where you need to be convinced about the library having enough must haves to justify a purchase. It doesnt get much more known quantity as PC as a gaming plattform and what it stands for. The SD offer a lot more than just being a PC, but there are a lot of people where Valve probably could have ended the sales pitch at portable PC.
So yeah downplaying/questioning the PC as gaming plattform is like ...probably not the best use of time.
Same way i have to chuckle when consoles are selling out immediately and then i go online an see threads ala "plattform holder NEEDS to this because [insert some reasoning]" - these are all nice to haves but as of that moment the market has already spoken and demand is there.
It would be more interesting to discuss how the longterm plan looks like and how Valve is gonna position the system once the initial demand and fans have gotten their hands on it - lets say in mid 2023. As ILikeFeet posted on the last page.
Is Valve positioning the Deck as always having the somewhat best-in class mobile APU (at that price point) and update it accordingly while keeping the same price structure or even introduce more expensive SKUs. Or are they gonna stick to current specs for years to come and really try to establish as portable gaming PC baseline for a console like period of +4 years, while trying to sell it for even cheaper down the line. Is smaller cheaper SteamDeck Lite for 299 something that could happen ? What will things look like when Valve introduced their SteamDeck equivalent of a homeconsole ?
In general its interesting to see what their longterm plans are gonna look like and sadly we dont have much information on that yet which makes it much more difficult to predict where the system is gonna end up on a very broad spectrum of possible outcomes.
The amount of games being playable or it general appeal are kinda moot points to discuss - its a PC in the end and unless you have very specific needs in terms of entertainment you are gonna find something that if for you on it. This isnt your new gen console launch with 20 launch games, where you need to be convinced about the library having enough must haves to justify a purchase. It doesnt get much more known quantity as PC as a gaming plattform and what it stands for. The SD offer a lot more than just being a PC, but there are a lot of people where Valve probably could have ended the sales pitch at portable PC.
So yeah downplaying/questioning the PC as gaming plattform is like ...probably not the best use of time.
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All of the highlighted are easier said than done, given that the Steam Deck (I don't recall if all or just the cheapest model) is sold at a loss. Actually the more they will sell, the higher the hit they will have to absorb. And no, I don't think that the more they sell, the cheaper it will become for them, not in the current climate nor at the current quantities, even if doubled or tripled.
the cheapest version is being sold at a lost.
I suspect they can't get a big volume of APUs for this. Van Gogh was about to be buried (thanks to MS backing out of a portable Xbox, allegedly) until Valve saved it. that doesn't make for a good quantity of wafers unless you're Nintendo (who did the same thing with the Tegra X1)
the choice of Van Gogh itself is a curious one. they'd have much better supply if they chose a Cezanne-based APU. but that would mean they'd be stuck on a weaker Vega gpu. but they'd also have more CPU cores to work with. they could have also waited until Rembrandt. they could have gotten a better CPU, and RDNA, but then the Deck would have to wait until 2022/2023
I suspect they can't get a big volume of APUs for this. Van Gogh was about to be buried (thanks to MS backing out of a portable Xbox, allegedly) until Valve saved it. that doesn't make for a good quantity of wafers unless you're Nintendo (who did the same thing with the Tegra X1)
the choice of Van Gogh itself is a curious one. they'd have much better supply if they chose a Cezanne-based APU. but that would mean they'd be stuck on a weaker Vega gpu. but they'd also have more CPU cores to work with. they could have also waited until Rembrandt. they could have gotten a better CPU, and RDNA, but then the Deck would have to wait until 2022/2023
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Never implied it was easier just interested what there long-term plans look like. We already know that the supply and pricing situations isn't really gonna be able to change much in the first 18-24 months - the interesting part is what happens after that and what their goal for SteamDeck as a Plattform is.
Even with the 400 base system being sold at loss, i have a hard time believing that they are gonna sell you the same for 400 bucks 2-3 years from now. So where do they go from there to expand their market ?
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Well, I see various possibilities -
1. Valve find they have a hit even with the higher priced versions and will continue with SD, but selling all future versions at a profit and making this into an extra income source. This is the least likely version imo.
2. Steam Deck increases Steam sales more than sufficiently to make up for the losses from the cheapest version. Valve continues things as they are with SD.
3. Other companies chime in with their own versions, Valve eventually discontinues SD (which serves as proof of concept) when critical mass has been achieved, why waste money when others do the work (= increase Steam game sales) for you.
4. Valve has a grand plan to do something else with SD beyond what we are seeing that will justify the expense, e.g. a subscription model, and they need the SD for that.
If Steam Deck sells well; it could help build interest from larger manufacturers like HP or Lenovo to help expand the segment.
Kind of like what Valve/HTC pulled off with the HTC Vive. Vive came out early 2016 and late 2017 saw Acer, HP, Lenovo and Samsung release PC compatible headsets.
are they even still making headsets? honest question as I don't follow VR news
Most of those companies released revisions of their headsets in late 2018. HP released the Reverb G2 end of last year and HTC released the Vive Pro 2 this year.
Stand-alone VR headsets seems to be where the market is going after the success of the Oculus Quest/Quest 2. Valve's next rumored headset Deckard seems to be following this trend.
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6 million at best imo, would a massive success. I have high doubts valve could even produce a 1mil per year
Steam Deck image shrinks significantly, ships with RAM from different vendors
What was supposed to be already shipping has been delayed until February, and while Valve cites the silicon shortage as the cause, it looks like there may be a bit more to the story.
www.neowin.net
More available space for storage and multiple memory vendors.
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I think it is also worth mentioning that it got another delay, now it's February 2022.Steam Deck image shrinks significantly, ships with RAM from different vendors
What was supposed to be already shipping has been delayed until February, and while Valve cites the silicon shortage as the cause, it looks like there may be a bit more to the story.
More available space for storage and multiple memory vendors.
The delay was already announced a couple of weeks ago, so its not exactly news anymore.
Didnt expect the OS footprint to be this big to begin with +20gb would have been massive.Steam Deck image shrinks significantly, ships with RAM from different vendors
What was supposed to be already shipping has been delayed until February, and while Valve cites the silicon shortage as the cause, it looks like there may be a bit more to the story.
More available space for storage and multiple memory vendors.
Seems like things might come in hot in February, lets hope they dont have to delay it again.
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I totally missed this... Was this also mentioned on IB somewhere at the time?
By your logic, it would sell even more than the PS5 and XSX.You keep stating that it's about sales talk, but then go back to defending the Switch on a hardware/feature level, repeating that somehow Steam Deck-fans are using the SoC alone for their "Steam Deck is better" claims, which couldn't be further from the truth. Your entire posting reads like it was written by 2 different people, to be quite honest, one person that indeed wants to have a level-headed debate about sales, but then another person that can't help but return to "but ACTUALLY Steam Deck is NOT better!!1". Like this:
That's just not true, Steam Deck-fans have brought up many points to say how the Steam Deck is better than the Switch, and graphics are only one of many. I myself brought up many of these points myself. I'm afraid it won't lead anywhere productive, because it was dismissed in the past already, but for sincerity's sake I'll list those points again:
- obviously, stronger hardware that plays all games on the market
- more comfortable to hold/better ergonomy as per hands-on reports
- about equal battery life
- barely more expensive
- optional dock for docked/undock-switching
- no detachble joycons, but supports pretty much any controller
- much bigger, much cheaper games library
- no Nintendo-games, but everything else, even Sony 1st-party games going forward
- customization features
- party-chat, messaging, Netflix, folders, etc, all the things people have been wishing for for Switch since 2017
- multimedia-capability aka it can be both for gaming, but also for productive work
- perfect emulation device
- extreme hybrid versatility: handheld play, docked play, laptop style play, 2nd screen play
- analog shoulder buttons
- additional input elements (back triggers, touchpads, dynamic swith to gyro)
- free online play
- the freedom of choice of a PC
- being produced by a notable, reliable global company that has a great standing with its customers (so at least equal with Nintendo here)
Those are the points that come to my mind. Based on that list, I feel confident that it's fair to say: The Steam Deck is better than the Switch. Of course, there are special cases where some only cares about Mario Kart and thus will prefer the Switch and I'm not saying that the Switch isn't still a fun system. But that's a personal decision then. The list I compiled is objective. It'd be unfair to dismiss "the Steam Deck is better" based only on subjective feelings. If that were an acceptable argument, then no product in the history of products would ever be allowed to called "better than X", because you'd always find some special person with a special taste. I'm sure someone out there enjoyed Superman 64 ;>
I hope you can acknowledge that I gave my best attempt to display why the Steam Deck is better beyond "SoC". And again, this is not some slight against the Switch. It's a 2017 device vs a 2022-device. It's expected. It will change again once the Switch 2 is revealed (although tbh I don't expect it to keep up feature-wise with Steam Deck, not that it needs to). Saying "Steam Deck is better than Switch" is not some console warrior-drivel, it's a calm observation made to express that the Steam Deck is a good, quality, desireable product. And from there, sales disussion can proceed. If we cannot even agree that the Steam Deck is a better product hardware/feature-wise, then sales debate becomes moot, because then nobody would have any reason to believe the Steam Deck to sell at all. After all, if you want to sell next to Nintendo, you need to put in the effort to even have a chance, right?
It is absolutely fair when people make low sales forecasts for the Steam Deck and there's plenty of good reasons to cite for that. But to question the quality of the product itself just has no basis in reality at this point, unless we later learn that there are some severe issues. I hope we can get past the mutual accusations and focus on the sales part, not on whether or not the product is of better quality. Is it of better desirability? That's the interesting question.
PS: In case any of this came off as aggressive or offensive, I want to make clear that was not my intention and I appreciate most of your postings, cw_sasuke. After all, I've been reading yours for years, too, on the old place.
You are extremely wrong.
Won't be a box. The big question for me - with Aya have a Steam OS version or continue with Windows? Valve need more people on that platform to ensure support for all games.
Would help Aya reduce the price too.
Not sure what people expect at this stage. Every console people complain about the OS side but this is quite standard these days.
To me it just suggests the cheaper Deck is fairly limited and just exists to give a low 'From*' price point.
Might have not been posted in this thread, since it doesnt really affect most longterm expectation for this device and is sold out for a while anyway.
SteamOS3 will be public soon after the Deck launch so it should work on all kinds of PC, including competitors ala AyaNeo.
I dont see how this would help them reduce the price though, where is the relation ?
Also dont quote follow your comment about the OS footprint, what are "console people" complaining about ?
It's not the biggest cost on the hardware but Steam OS3 will be free and Windows will have an additional licensing cost.
I mean people complain about the size of every consoles OS when they launch. OSs are just big these days.
The OS cost is really a very small part of the price once you are charging over 1k for a device, it wont make any difference for people interested in this kind of hardware. Would need to be half the price to appeal to the SD audience.
I didnt complain about the OS size, i just new that the OS footprint wouldnt be +20gb for the SD at launch. Thats a very large amount for what kind of OS its built up on and the features this device needs. What console makers are doing isnt really relevant to a Linux-Based gaming OS from Valve, their goal will always be to have it as small/minimal as possible and leave the users to install/add additional components on their own.
The standard console SSDs are 500gb/1tb - the base SD is 64gb, they are not gonna bloat up the OS for no reason, especially if the goal is to have SteamOS3 show up and perform well on plenty of other portables PCs down the line. Gotta keep the size footprint small and attractive for people to consider installing it even as an addition OS, next to Windows.
Microsoft Windows licenses are not free. But the bigger advantage, adapting the system to the hardware, is more likely to make a difference.
We are in a thread where many see the Deck as competitor to Switch. There it does make a big difference.
1. I didn't say Win licenses are free but the cost are minor once the device is already that expensive. 50 bucks more or less ain't gonna make or break a case for a niche device of that level, nor gonna put the device into the price weight class of the Deck or a Switch.
2. SD and Switch price are much closer than what is being charged for AyaNeo and co. for the most part. Regards of that most people here compare three systems because they are all that gamers know, when the comparison to other portable PCs would make a lot more sense in terms of initial sales projectory and supply situation.
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Even in a world without covid/supply chain/chip shortage issues, Steam Deck would struggle more then 5 million units with it's current distribution model. With all those things it'll probably takes until 2023 before a normal person can even think about getting one even if reviews for it are stellar.
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Isn't Windows free on devices with screens smaller than 9 inches? Or did they change that policy?
as far as I know it still is
and even if it wasn't, the hardware makers can just ship without an OS
For me personally, I have no interest. I don't play my computer games enough as is even with a huge library of games. But, I voted 15m and did so because I think the audience is entirely different than the Switch's. PC game software sells in truly exorbitant numbers that generally goes under the radar (Valheim selling 5 million copies in one month is genuinely astounding) so there is a huge market for this I think.
I'm sure it will take some time to reach that number, but Valve sees the potential for success in this and I think they'll support it for awhile. I guess the biggest issue is the same as every other piece of hardware right now -- manufacturing capacity. That more than interest may result in a lower number before a potential successor is made.
I'm sure it will take some time to reach that number, but Valve sees the potential for success in this and I think they'll support it for awhile. I guess the biggest issue is the same as every other piece of hardware right now -- manufacturing capacity. That more than interest may result in a lower number before a potential successor is made.
Lovely.
Around 4 million would be my idea of a great success if this is just a gen 1 hardware that valve plans to iterate on in the coming years. Portable gaming PC’s have been an interesting niche for years. But the main thing I see this doing is just consolidating the entire market around the steam deck.
For anything else besides that, like completing with Nintendo for instance. I’d keep the expectations in check. The ven diagram in who finds the switch appealing and who finds the steam deck appealing. Would have maybe a 20% overlap at best.
For anything else besides that, like completing with Nintendo for instance. I’d keep the expectations in check. The ven diagram in who finds the switch appealing and who finds the steam deck appealing. Would have maybe a 20% overlap at best.
1-5 million.
I love PC gaming and portable gaming makes it more accessible. I even owned a GPD Win in the past. It was awesome but it was clunky and just not a great device. The idea of a handheld gaming PC, though, is sublime. So many awesome games, particularly indies, translate well to it.
Even though I'm a huge fan, unless Valve really pushes this idea (has Valve ever really pushed anything?), I don't see it as being a massive mainstream success. That said, as long as it's successful for Valve to continue with it, I'm thrilled.
I love PC gaming and portable gaming makes it more accessible. I even owned a GPD Win in the past. It was awesome but it was clunky and just not a great device. The idea of a handheld gaming PC, though, is sublime. So many awesome games, particularly indies, translate well to it.
Even though I'm a huge fan, unless Valve really pushes this idea (has Valve ever really pushed anything?), I don't see it as being a massive mainstream success. That said, as long as it's successful for Valve to continue with it, I'm thrilled.
The biggest issue for Aya isn't the OS cost, it's how much profit margin they need to make from the hardware sale vs BoM. Valve has another way to make money off Steam deck aka the store, Aya and the like don't really.
One further aspect is economy of scale. Mainstream consoles and handheld profit of it, and so do common PC designs. A PC handheld is the very definition of a niche so far though so I don't think Aya, the biggest manufacturer in that area so far, had much economy of scale to profit from so far.
Yeah that's the other key one.
This is what I'm expecting to happen again.
Even if it isn't, you can legally install Windows without ever activating it, and all it will ever do is prevent you from changing the desktop background. Nothing else is ever turned off or disabled.
At what price is key. At least in the context of this thread. Fortunately, only 7 days until we find out.
don't really need a reveal to know this will be priced way the hell out of the common market
That's what I thought, so I'm not sure why the Aya Neo or its successor are being discussed here. The whole reason for Steam Deck-hype is because of the price point. PC-handhelds of that prowess used to be in the 1000+ dollars space. The Steam Deck brings it down to 399.
On a technical level, I'm sure the new Aya Neo will be nice, better even than the Steam Deck. But I'd never even think about spending that much money on a handheld