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Sony FY 2021/22 Q3 earnings: 2nd best quarter ever (revenue), 3.9m PS5s (LTD: 17.3m)

DarkDetective

DarkDetective

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真実はいつもひとつ! There's only one truth
Sony has released their earnings report for the Oct-Dec quarter, fiscal Q3.

Link to handout.
Link to Supplemental Information.

Game & Network Sales segment
Sales: ¥813.3bn (~$7.15bn)
Operating income: ¥92.9bn (~$0.82bn)

Second-best quarter ever for G&NS in terms of revenue, only behind fiscal Q3 last year.

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Source

Hardware
PS5: 3.9m (LTD: 17.3m)
PS4: 0.2m (LTD: 116.8m)

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Source

Software
PS5+PS4: 92.7m games sold (104.2m in Oct-Dec 2020)
First-party software sales: 11.3m games sold (19.0m in Oct-Dec 2020), which is 12.2% of total PlayStation game sales (18.2% in Oct-Dec 2020).

PlayStation Store revenue: ¥432.3bn (~$3.80bn; -0.1% YoY).
62% of software sales were digital.
111m Monthly Active Users, who spent $42.37 on average on PSN during Oct-Dec 2021.
48.0m PlayStation Plus subscribers (up from 47.4m at the end of 2020)

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Outlook for the full current fiscal year ending 31st March 2022
- Revenue outlook has been decreased from ¥2900bn to ¥2730bn (~$24.6bn)
- Profit outlook has been increased from ¥325bn to ¥345bn (~$3.1bn)
- PlayStation 5 hardware sales outlook decreased from 14.8m units to 11.5m units, implicating expected fiscal Q4 shipments of 2.0m units.



Thanks ArmGunar.
 
It is a shame shortages are slowing down their momentum, below 4m in Q4 CY is really unfortunate.

However, despite that, they are handling the transition pretty well in terms of financials. Their big 2022 games being cross-gen will also help them.
 
Xbox seems to have outsold Playstation worldwide in last quarter, mainly due to Series S. And maybe Xbox could ship more than 2 million consoles this quarter, which would mean more than PS5.
 
Those hardware sales and outlook are a real shame, but the overall software performance is still great. Yes, first-party software sales are down sharply YoY, but PlayStation didn't have a single first-party release during the quarter. With the Uncharted port on PS5 out now, Horizon coming later this month, and Gran Turismo 7 in March, things will suddenly look a lot better on that front three months from now. Most important is that overall software sales are still good, MAU is up YoY, and the PS+ subscriber base has grown (which means the audience is still well engaged with the brand).

I hope Sony will find a way around the chip shortages. The Xbox Series S was a great move by Microsoft in this regard, because it needs smaller chips. Perhaps a toned down digital-only model could help for Sony, too? They could use it as a temporary solution, only manufacturing it for as long as necessary, before shifting back to PS5 DE production when those chips (and other parts?) are more widely available again.
 
Hardware is rough, but everything else is flat out amazing.

It's easy to see where the Bungie acquisitions fits into Sony's plans(even if the price was a bit steep IMO).
 


I gotta wonder if this year is going to be a huge watershed moment for Sony's MTX's focused strategy

A lot of the growth is also due to their market leadership position for such titles

FIFA will no doubt continue to be a huge factor for them in Europe as MS won't make up that much ground there outside of UK; while Switch doesn't seem to be a platform that leads to huge MTX revenue among FIFA players - I'm not even sure why its selling so much.

Their other huge MTX game currently is Genshin Impact, honestly if it's launches on the Switch it will be bad news for Sony as it will lose a major exclusive, I'm guessing Sony is doing everything to prevent this. Don't think it launching on XS would make as much of an impact.

They are unlikely to outsell MS in North America - which makes Madden & NBA2K competitive and I even expect the XS version of Madden to outsell the PS5 one this year; while for NBA2K its a toss up with an edge for Sony since they are likely to retain advantage in Other markets

In terms of lost ground I can see them losing a lot of ground in GTA V, Call of Duty but retaining their market leadership position.

Now the ones I'm really thinking that they are most worried about are Fortnite & Apex Legends, I kinda of think that at this stage the leading platform is likely the Switch, which will no doubt lead to it taking the leadership at some point in terms of highest MTX revenue.
With Switch likely to outsell PS5 by a big amount in 2022 these two games are definitely huge in Asia where it dominates - meaning that Nintendo are likely to see continued growth this year if their popularity continues.
 
Shortages worse than expected, a huge 2.5 million down on PS4's 2014-15 Q3.

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So much for securing the chips for 14.5m+ PS5s this year, 11.5m is awful especially as its ending on a 2m quarter, way down from a year ago - meaning the situation is getting worse not better.

PS5 is going to be off to a slow start when Sony wanted their fastest start ever, we know that hardware often compounds due to friends buying what their friends have etc. so I think this will have a knock-on effect, especially with Series S being readily available, and PS install base is going to drop a lot this gen. It does make sense that Sony are starting to look beyond their PS hardware now.

Everything beyond hardware is fantastic and Sony will want to be able to keep that up regardless of what their HW is doing. Majority of this fantastic performance is due to the market leader position and getting the biggest share of MTX and sales for third parties. Losing that would be a massive blow.

The next quarter will be absolutely huge for Sony's revenue and profits with Horizon and GT7 for sure.
 
Lelouch0612 said:
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Variance is very small between quarters for the PS5. Really a sign they are maxing out production capabilities.
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Same will happen next quarter.
AMD expect it to be flattish and not being down a lot (mainly of course because the super low holiday quarter)

SoonyXboneUhh said:
From the AMD call

5:42 PM ET: A question about Q1 expectations for console SoC sales.

Su: Semi-custom sales are normally significantly down Q/Q in Q1 due to seasonality. But this year, they're expected to be flattish.
Click to expand...
 
Nocturnal said:
Now the ones I'm really thinking that they are most worried about are Fortnite & Apex Legends, I kinda of think that at this stage the leading platform is likely the Switch, which will no doubt lead to it taking the leadership at some point in terms of highest MTX revenue.
With Switch likely to outsell PS5 by a big amount in 2022 these two games are definitely huge in Asia where it dominates - meaning that Nintendo are likely to see continued growth this year if their popularity continues.
Click to expand...

I don't think there's any remote chance of that in the near future. The figures from the Epic Apple suit showed that MTX revenue from the Switch base for Fortnite was absolutely miniscule, lagging well behind Xbox nevermind PlayStation.

EDIT: I don't think Nintendo's digital revenue really points to a massive uptick either.
 
Despite a great start PS5 is now 2.9m behind PS4 and is also behind Nintendo Switch despite having an extra holiday, Shortages were so bad it was close to falling behind Nintendo 3DS launch aligned.


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The good about the quarter is PS+ numbers. The only metric being up YoY. No wonder Sony tries to capitalize on the nearly 50m paying member to make more money and launch more services.
 
Luminoth 4545 said:
Despite a great start PS5 is now 2.9m behind PS4 and is also behind Nintendo Switch despite having an extra holiday, Shortages were so bad it was close to falling behind Nintendo 3DS launch aligned.

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Yeah these shortages must be a worry for everyone. Am not convinced we will see great improvements until 2023/4 either.

Everyone must be looking at how they can expand into cross platform services.
 
I am not the smartest in terms of finances but I saw the network revenue is up around 7% however the jpy has weakened by like 10%. When I use their usd conversion rates for the respective quarters, it's actually down a little bit.

Is it right to conclude its up cause of USD effectively going further?
 
So what are the chances of the PS4 of actually catching the Game Boy?

It has slow down more than I anticipated but with the extra push it's gonna get, it is possible?
 
I am lowering my lifetime sales prediction for PS5.
At this point, it is obvius shortages are gonna last for a while at least, and even if by the end of the year everything is solved, 2 years of momentum lost is huge. Some people (and i used to ne one of those years ago) think that if there are shortages is fine, because they will eventually buy it when everything is solved right?
Well it doesn't really work like that: some consumer just lose interest over time. You better sell what you can sell as soon as possible, otherwise you gonna lose sales.
Not only that but less install base > less word of mouth which traduce in less natural growth.

I still think 100 million is possible but i'm not too sure anymore, could end up closer to PS3.
 
MS is going to be gaining on Sony in several territories due to the expedited development of Series S in comparison to the resource hungry 4K consoles.

Things really seem to be swinging against Sony this generation despite the continued strength of the brand and strong demand.
 
Hardware sales aren’t the greatest but wow are they making bank off their subscriptions and microtransactions.
 
11.5M for the current*** fiscal year is extremely rough. Crossgen is here to stay for quite a long time if next gen adoption is slowed that much.

*** edited after misreading
 
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Ryng™ said:
I am lowering my lifetime sales prediction for PS5.
At this point, it is obvius shortages are gonna last for a while at least, and even if by the end of the year everything is solved, 2 years of momentum lost is huge. Some people (and i used to ne one of those years ago) think that if there are shortages is fine, because they will eventually buy it when everything is solved right?
Well it doesn't really work like that: some consumer just lose interest over time. You better sell what you can sell as soon as possible, otherwise you gonna lose sales.
Not only that but less install base > less word of mouth which traduce in less natural growth.

I still think 100 million is possible but i'm not too sure anymore, could end up closer to PS3.
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I think 100m is slipping away as well, might not even beat PS3 if next year's COD is the last one PS5 gets.
EDGalTBR said:
Xbox may have outsold Playstation in last quarter, base on @Welfare estimates:

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Yeah it seems likely and with only 2M forecast for the next quarter it could be 2 in a row for xbox. Sony need to ramp up their production rapidly if they want to stay ahead.

Edit: when was the last time xbox shipped more consoles than PS in a quarter worldwide? Must have been with the 360 right?
 
Hardware sales are underwhelming for obvious reasons. Shipping less last holiday than during the 2020 launch quarter - which itself was heavily supply-constrained - is pretty awful.

Everything else is doing really good. 92.7M PS4+PS5 software during FY2031 Q3 is especially impressive given all the underperforming 3rd party games (COD Vanguard, BF2042, FarCry 6, etc) and lack of new 1st party releases compared to FY2020 Q3.
 
Well that explains things. I know that sales data we got during the holiday season kinda indicated lowish shipments but under 4 million is still quite shocking. All other numbers seem great though.
 
Sony also didn't revise the forecast for next FY PS5 shipments.
Still 22.6m. Because of motivation for the team.




But I believe 17m is the best they can hope for. So at least 5m less. That's still on average 3.3m each normal quarter and over 7m during the holidays.
But if supply is rough the actual number could fall below 15m.
 
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SoonyXboneUhh said:
Sony also didn't revise the forecast for next FY PS5 shipments.
Still 22.6m. Because of motivation for the team.




But I believe 17m is the best they can hope for. So at least 5m less. That's still on average 3.3m each normal quarter and over 7m during the holidays.
But if supply is rough the actual number could fall below 15m.
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Whilst I'm sure there's some truth to it Mochizuki is being shady af...
 
SoonyXboneUhh said:
Sony also didn't revise the forecast for next FY PS5 shipments.
Still 22.6m. Because of motivation for the team.




But I believe 17m is the best they can hope for. So at least 5m less. That's still on average 3.3m each normal quarter and over 7m during the holidays.
But if supply is rough the actual number could fall below 15m.
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Making an overly optimistic forecast as "motivation" even though everyone (employees, shareholders, consumers) knows said forecast won't be met???

wat
 
awng782 said:
Making an overly optimistic forecast as "motivation" even though everyone (employees, shareholders, consumers) knows said forecast won't be met???

wat
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Yeah it's weird. But I can't speak Japanese and didn't listen to the call. Maybe some context is missing for a more editorialized headline.
 
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SoonyXboneUhh said:
Sony also didn't revise the forecast for next FY PS5 shipments.
Still 22.6m. Because of motivation for the team.




But I believe 17m is the best they can hope for. So at least 5m less. That's still on average 3.3m each normal quarter and over 7m during the holidays.
But if supply is rough the actual number could fall below 15m.
Click to expand...

That is bizarre. But calling this quarter bad for playstation is also weird. Shipments are bad, sure, but that's just one aspect.

Its impossible to make any prediction really, its just a guessing game on what components they can secure. Even when they say they've secured the parts for 14.5m+ this FY it turns out they can only ship 11.5m, so there's no logic to follow at all. It seems to me that any reasonable increase will require them to up their bid for components as silicon is still all bought out. Could be another 11.5m year next year for all we know.
 
DarkDetective said:
Perhaps a toned down digital-only model could help for Sony, too?
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The problem is that digital only model won't help either as it has the same SoC as the regular PS5. Xbox Series S has smaller SoC thus you can produce more of it.

It seems like this shortage will trigger big console manufacturers to pivot to service based economy (except Nintendo of course).
 
awng782 said:
Making an overly optimistic forecast as "motivation" even though everyone (employees, shareholders, consumers) knows said forecast won't be met???

wat
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I take it to mean Sony internally is prepared to support that forecast if external factors change during the FY (before summer production for holiday sales). The operation is staffed and resourced for that forecast.
 
Ship shortages won’t be over soon and that’s really depressing when you think what could have been achieved, oh well.
Microsoft is really lucky to have the Series S.
 
Oregano said:
I don't think there's any remote chance of that in the near future. The figures from the Epic Apple suit showed that MTX revenue from the Switch base for Fortnite was absolutely miniscule, lagging well behind Xbox nevermind PlayStation.

EDIT: I don't think Nintendo's digital revenue really points to a massive uptick either.
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I think the data from these figures was relatively old? Meanwhile Switch has sold many millions unit more.
 
If PS5 and XBOX Series can't reach 50 millions before the next Switch is announced there could be a massive upending of the apple cart in terms of major western third party support. EA and Take 2 will need large install base for their monetized properties alongside PC. Luminoth's chart above has PS4 at 50 millions in 13 quarters. Sony is touting the strong ecosystem engagement now and they should but this clear signaling that the PS4 base is still engaged to entice cross gen development only benefits a future switch 2 which would be able to run similar games with a more appealing form factor. Damned if you do, damned it you don't.
 
Oregano said:
Isn't that similar to 3DS actually?

Shows how rough shortages are.
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Actually worse than the 3DS' first full fiscal year (13.52m), but when Sony get these shortage problems solved i'm sure PS5 will be hitting 20m or more a year at it's peak just like PS1, PS2 and PS4.

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Sales in millions.
 
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EDGalTBR said:
Xbox may have outsold Playstation in last quarter, base on @Welfare estimates:

Click to expand...


Xevross said:
I think 100m is slipping away as well, might not even beat PS3 if next year's COD is the last one PS5 gets.

Yeah it seems likely and with only 2M forecast for the next quarter it could be 2 in a row for xbox. Sony need to ramp up their production rapidly if they want to stay ahead.

Edit: when was the last time xbox shipped more consoles than PS in a quarter worldwide? Must have been with the 360 right?
Click to expand...

Kouriozan said:
Ship shortages won’t be over soon and that’s really depressing when you think what could have been achieved, oh well.
Microsoft is really lucky to have the Series S.
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So, basically +6 mil. XSX there vs. +17 mil. PS5s. That's funny. No wonder why MS pushed XSS production heavily over XSX
 
Amazing results outside of the hardware where they are hit hard by chip shortages.
Its weird but with all the demand the system had its really disappointing that we arent able to witness what the system could have sold in a non Covid world - some ridiculous first 12 months records could have been broken.
 
No doubt this will be the longest "generation" ever, since things won't really take off until the supply issue has been solved
 
nayu said:
No doubt this will be the longest "generation" ever, since things won't really take off until the supply issue has been solved
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On top of that as streaming becomes more of a thing there's less of a need for new consoles. XB1 being able to stream XBS games came after the series launch and soon people will expect something like that as the new standard.

Even when next gen comes, people won't need the new hardware to benefit from it anymore, just any smart device and a good internet.
 
I'm glad I got my console last year, because if it's already a bloodbath trying to find one, I don't know how more difficult will be for the rest of the year.

Shame Sony didn't designed their own Series S (with disc support and proper PS4 Pro compatibity) it could have mitigaded a bit this actual situation but at this point is unfeasible due to lack of proper specific support of a low profile SKU.
 
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