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Sony FY 2021/22 Q3 earnings: 2nd best quarter ever (revenue), 3.9m PS5s (LTD: 17.3m)

Ouch, those shortages are slowing them down now. At least it's not affecting revenue as much yet. Software is down for Q3 but Horizon will give them a good Q4 for first party software.
 
11.3 million units for 1st Party games in a holiday season, even with a lot of bundles. Is really low and confirms my previous posts.

These consoles beeing undershipped due to manufacturing shortages, somehow holds open hopes of unprecedented demand, but I'm actually getting the impression that PS4 was more popular. Current circumstances causing relative lower adoptions launch aligned gives all parties more time to position themselves, especially with the current acquisitions.
What first party game did they release during this holiday (or year frankly) to sell a lot during the holidays?
 
Looking at Sony's 1st party sales for the quarter, there's a chance that Pokémon BDSP sell more than Sony's overall 1st party sales.
 
BDSP sold-through >6M during its Fri-Sun launch. Would be surprising if it didn't sell another >5M from Nov 22 - Dec 31.
 
I dont think miniscule is accurate at all:

--> iOS ranked fifth, with just 7 percent of total revenue.

Babcock explicitly confirmed that the iOS version of Fortnite earned less revenue, month to month, than:

  • PlayStation 4
  • Xbox (presumably Xbox One)
  • Nintendo Switch
  • PCs
Switch is at the very least was a 7.1% of all fortnite revenue per month.


For sure, I think people are missing the point - the vast majority of huge money makers aren't treating Switch properly.
From the GaaS games I would say Fortnite, Apex Legends are games that treat the platform and the audience on the platform with respect, I don't think I can say the same about FIFA/NBA2K. While all other games are basically not even on the platform. The reason Sony has such a dominant position here is the tons of GaaS games that are exclusive to the system and missing on the Switch. But I'm sure these two franchises are contributing a lot to Nintendo's digital revenue growth and if more GaaS games take success on the platform with the same attitude they would also find success.

Lets take Fall Guys as an example... where is the Switch version that was announced last year, I don't even know if the game is still popular but with Japan not really embracing other platforms the team at Mediatonic is surely missing a huge chance. Japan after all is a country where Human Fall Flat sold over 1 million units on the Switch alone and Among Us likely is heading for 2 million already. Hell even a game like Dead Cells which sold 5 million is a form of GaaS in a way; since there have been 3 or 4 paid DLCs and we can be sure that Switch is one of the leading platforms for it.

In terms of Fortnite as you mention Switch was likely over 15% by July 2020(below is the cumulative sales per

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Since July 2020 no doubt that due to the expanding audience on the Switch the market share has grown substantially while main competitors have remained stagnant, I think people under estimate that in games like Dota 2/LoL/CS a low end PC is the leading platform. So from a point of absolute domination it's likely the situation for PlayStation ecosystem in terms of Fortnite is already competative and with Switch selling another 20M+ this year compared to PS4/PS5's combined total we are looking at another year of growth. Especially in high growth markets like Asia where Switch is probably running up the scores
In my estimation it's very likely that if Fortnite maintains popularity for Switch to be the #1 benefactor in 2022, PS will remain close but I don't think it can keep its lead with hardware sales below 15M.
 
I'm honestly not sure PS5>PS4, mid-to-late gen I expect the MS acquisitions to start having a real effect on sales. I think PS5 will sell pretty much like PS4.
if they have not fix their pipeline by the time Microsoft announces CoD will be Xbox/ PC only or any future acquisition Microsoft does (im sure they will pull in 1 or 2 more moves before letting their accounting department rest)
 
I mean you dont just snap your fingers at the price point PS5 is and sell 25 million units, thats the type of year PS5 needs to make up ground and we are unlikely to see production or supply scale to that level until 2023

These numbers are good for Microsoft because it means they have a chance to make up some ground in US compared to past gens but for Sony they would really be motivated by higher results
 
I honestly think both Sony and MS should take a serious look at porting their games to each others platforms until the hardware shortages end, if ever.

Exclusives dont make sense this gen.

Do you think results like this could accelerate SONY's pc strategy?
I mean hardware as fallen really hard, but software is as healthy as ever. One would think that they would have realized the have an entire open platform waiting to be mined by their products and not letting their competition dominate it.
 
I honestly think both Sony and MS should take a serious look at porting their games to each others platforms until the hardware shortages end, if ever.

Exclusives dont make sense this gen.

I think Microsoft is happy to do that - if Sony agrees to support Game Pass.

I imagine once the ball is really rolling on Spartacus it will be the same for PlayStation.

Also you reminded me of Pachter saying Nintendo should release games on PS/XB until their next console in the Wii U days
 
I'm honestly not sure PS5>PS4, mid-to-late gen I expect the MS acquisitions to start having a real effect on sales. I think PS5 will sell pretty much like PS4.

I'm not seeing any reason for PS5 sell more or even on par with PS4 in the current environment of Xbox Series more competitive than One, Sony increasingly supporting PC and streaming lurking.
 
If PS5 and XBOX Series can't reach 50 millions before the next Switch is announced there could be a massive upending of the apple cart in terms of major western third party support. EA and Take 2 will need large install base for their monetized properties alongside PC. Luminoth's chart above has PS4 at 50 millions in 13 quarters. Sony is touting the strong ecosystem engagement now and they should but this clear signaling that the PS4 base is still engaged to entice cross gen development only benefits a future switch 2 which would be able to run similar games with a more appealing form factor. Damned if you do, damned it you don't.
Yeah, I think Switch 2 is gonna be big if Nintendo won't fall flat on the face, coming after Switch momentum and if they won't have shortages (I believe Switch SoC will be smaller than XSX/PS5) so they are gonna be big.

On top of that as streaming becomes more of a thing there's less of a need for new consoles. XB1 being able to stream XBS games came after the series launch and soon people will expect something like that as the new standard.
Yeah, I believe the shortage might accelerate the move towards streaming. I think Xbox Series S (with the ability to stream XSX games) and the application for Xbox One (to stream XSX games) will help Xbox too. A lot of people didn't try streaming but I think eventually they will experience it and find out that it is not that bad.

I think Microsoft wants to come close to 1:1 again to see the generation as a real success story.
In pure console sales? Not gonna happen. Microsoft provides too many entry points for that.

Exclusives dont make sense this gen.
No, they make sense. I think even GaaS (not from third parties) will be ecosystem based (Bungie will probably be the exception). Third party publishers will pivot to GaaS / F2P games or smaller games or merge / will be purchased. Next gen they won't be able survive without recurring revenue (or huge backing if tech giant).
 
I personally expect the rise of Xbox to not be hugely detrimental to Sony's hardware, there will just be more people owning both.
I wonder, do we have statistics on how many people own both a PS and an Xbox?

Do you think results like this could accelerate SONY's pc strategy?
I mean hardware as fallen really hard, but software is as healthy as ever. One would think that they would have realized the have an entire open platform waiting to be mined by their products and not letting their competition dominate it.
I definitely think it would incentivize Sony to release a few more of their games on PC. Maybe not the PS5 exclusives though.

I’m curious what live service games Sony has planned. Will they be new IPs or will they be multiplayer installments of their singleplayer franchises?
 
I wonder, do we have statistics on how many people own both a PS and an Xbox?


I definitely think it would incentivize Sony to release a few more of their games on PC. Maybe not the PS5 exclusives though.

I’m curious what live service games Sony has planned. Will they be new IPs or will they be multiplayer installments of their singleplayer franchises?
Yeah, I'm definitely not seeing a great amount of people owning an Xbox series and a Ps5. This is not a Switch/Ps4 situation like at all. Most popular games on those consoles are third parties by far. Wonder when all the MS acquisitions will start to make a big impact and if it's gonna hurt Sony.
 
Yeah, I'm definitely not seeing a great amount of people owning an Xbox series and a Ps5. This is not a Switch/Ps4 situation like at all. Most popular games on those consoles are third parties by far. Wonder when all the MS acquisitions will start to make a big impact and if it's gonna hurt Sony.
I think Starfield will star that, every Bethesda game are threated like events as far I remember and MS is going to push it really hard this holidays and if (BIG IF) the ABK deal is completed this year...yeah.
Some people don't like to admit it but COD will really hurt PS even if at the end xbox just got the marketing deals (MS will make sure that the best place to play COD is on their platforms)
 
I wonder, do we have statistics on how many people own both a PS and an Xbox?

The links above suggest around a third of PS/Xbox console buyers own both, but that could be influenced by the data collection method.
 
I expect the same to happen to Nintendo.
Some on the Tokyo Stock Exchange ain't waiting, Nintendo's stock is down 2.7%, probably because some investors expect a less-than-desirable FQ3 earnings report. What happens tomorrow depends on the actual content of the earnings report, since it's not made public until the exchange closes in Japan.
 
Pretty crazy that they're cutting their hardware forecast by such a huge amount but also raising their overall profit forecast.
That massive PS4 userbase ain't going away any time soon, it looks like.
It's also worth noting that logistics issues mean that even if the BoP for each PS5 is under its RRP, the increased costs associated with shipping them to the US, for example, would drive margins negative.

Speaking of which, those ten planned live service games could very well end up extending the lifespan of the PS4 several more years. I don't expect the PS4 to keep getting new (big) live service games in 2026, but the earlier live service titles in the PS pipeline could still keep operating on the PS4 through the 2030s.
 
Thank you. If we take those links at face value then that means that 2/3 of the audience can be swayed into picking an next-gen console lane. And if we try to read a bit deeper into the data collection methods I’m almost 100% positive that that the percentage of people who own both XB and PS is overrepresented. Either way that’s potentially a huge chink of audience that could migrate from PS to Xbox.

Stocks will be stocks. Nothing surprising. As others have mentioned it will probably be the same for Nintendo.
 
Shares are falling... yes. Because they went up 1,500 yen/share in 4 days. Stocks don't always keep going up.
 
So far the only interesting thing in terms of the share price is the fact Sony is still down 12% from the 18th, Konami up 16%, Sega up 10%, Capcom up 10% and SE is like 7%.

Daily, only Sega is flat or slightly up
 
Thank you. If we take those links at face value then that means that 2/3 of the audience can be swayed into picking an next-gen console lane. And if we try to read a bit deeper into the data collection methods I’m almost 100% positive that that the percentage of people who own both XB and PS is overrepresented. Either way that’s potentially a huge chink of audience that could migrate from PS to Xbox.

Stocks will be stocks. Nothing surprising. As others have mentioned it will probably be the same for Nintendo.
I'm sorry but that seems like bullshit. How the fuck would they even know who owns both consoles? Some IP address research? All through high school and college I barely met anyone (maybe 10%) with a ps3 and a 360 or ps4 and xbox one. Now a bunch of people do switch or buy another one eventually cuz they get bored of the same console.

Data shows that the majority of gamers only buy only a couple of games a year but you telling me somehow that they feel the need to own 2 consoles with a similar library, and just to play like 2 games per console? Come on now.
 
I'm sorry but that seems like bullshit. How the fuck would they even know who owns both consoles? Some IP address research? All through high school and college I barely met anyone (maybe 10%) with a ps3 and a 360 or ps4 and xbox one. Now a bunch of people do switch or buy another one eventually cuz they get bored of the same console.

Data shows that the majority of gamers only buy only a couple of games a year but you telling me somehow that they feel the need to own 2 consoles with a similar library, and just to play like 2 games per console? Come on now.
That average games per console rate is likely brought down significantly by people who buy a console for Madden and ONLY Madden (or, if you're from most other sales regions, FIFA and ONLY FIFA) and other abnormalities like that (see: Wii owners that only bought one game).

And also, it's clear you didn't actually look at the links that show the methodology. And both meatbag and I both agree that the data sample and data collection method has the potential to over-represent multi-console ownership. Calm yourself.
 
That average games per console rate is likely brought down significantly by people who buy a console for Madden and ONLY Madden (or, if you're from most other sales regions, FIFA and ONLY FIFA) and other abnormalities like that (see: Wii owners that only bought one game).

And also, it's clear you didn't actually look at the links that show the methodology. And both meatbag and I both agree that the data sample and data collection method has the potential to over-represent multi-console ownership. Calm yourself.
Im calmed bro, it's just the way I talk. Nothing was directed to u, I just call bullshit on these findings. Btw I did clicked and read the 1st link (thought the 2nd would be the same thing) but looking at the 2nd just now, the data sample is 2600 US consumers? So yeah, pretty much meaningless. There's 100s millions console owners out there. What's 2600 US consumers gonna tell us about the global gaming userbase. Nothing. My silly IP address idea would've lead to way better data.
 
So far the only interesting thing in terms of the share price is the fact Sony is still down 12% from the 18th, Konami up 16%, Sega up 10%, Capcom up 10% and SE is like 7%.

Daily, only Sega is flat or slightly up
there's a lot of volatility in tech stock right now hell Meta tumbled 23% in premarket trading
 
yeah and the same will happen to sony. I can see rising to 150 or more by next year
Maybe, not much to add there.

The only thing I am highlighting is that drop from the 18th has still not recovered yet. It opened on the 19th on the TSE at 13100 and closed yesterday is 12585.
 
Sony was smart to invest in PC and streaming in recent years. They would be wise to keep PS4 consoles supported with firmware and content as well.
 
Yeah I don't doubt all their 2022 are planned for PC as well, I fully expect HFW & GT on PC by the end of the year to offset the hardware supply limitations
 
So what are the chances of the PS4 of actually catching the Game Boy?

It has slow down more than I anticipated but with the extra push it's gonna get, it is possible?
I used to think PS4 would squeak out ahead but doing only 200k this Q3 I'm not sure if it can even clear 118m.
 
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Pointless article. Anyone who is paying attention to the stock market knows central banks are increasing interest rates resulting in an equity wide sell off, especially in growth stocks which is a lot of the technology sector.

An outstanding quarter would have reversed this, sure, but decline is what pretty much most technology stocks that have not had outstanding quarters are doing. Even with an outstanding quarter, the stock price will still continue to decline.

This is a macroeconomic reason, to understand why its happening, you should understand why equities boomed with the central bank printing.
 
For sure, I think people are missing the point - the vast majority of huge money makers aren't treating Switch properly.
From the GaaS games I would say Fortnite, Apex Legends are games that treat the platform and the audience on the platform with respect, I don't think I can say the same about FIFA/NBA2K. While all other games are basically not even on the platform. The reason Sony has such a dominant position here is the tons of GaaS games that are exclusive to the system and missing on the Switch. But I'm sure these two franchises are contributing a lot to Nintendo's digital revenue growth and if more GaaS games take success on the platform with the same attitude they would also find success.

Lets take Fall Guys as an example... where is the Switch version that was announced last year, I don't even know if the game is still popular but with Japan not really embracing other platforms the team at Mediatonic is surely missing a huge chance. Japan after all is a country where Human Fall Flat sold over 1 million units on the Switch alone and Among Us likely is heading for 2 million already. Hell even a game like Dead Cells which sold 5 million is a form of GaaS in a way; since there have been 3 or 4 paid DLCs and we can be sure that Switch is one of the leading platforms for it.

In terms of Fortnite as you mention Switch was likely over 15% by July 2020(below is the cumulative sales per

FKnKYPyXwAAjOug


Since July 2020 no doubt that due to the expanding audience on the Switch the market share has grown substantially while main competitors have remained stagnant, I think people under estimate that in games like Dota 2/LoL/CS a low end PC is the leading platform. So from a point of absolute domination it's likely the situation for PlayStation ecosystem in terms of Fortnite is already competative and with Switch selling another 20M+ this year compared to PS4/PS5's combined total we are looking at another year of growth. Especially in high growth markets like Asia where Switch is probably running up the scores
In my estimation it's very likely that if Fortnite maintains popularity for Switch to be the #1 benefactor in 2022, PS will remain close but I don't think it can keep its lead with hardware sales below 15M.
These are actually great numbers for the Switch version. It launch on Switch way later than the other consoles and the other platforms have had a way bigger online shooter and gaas fanbase for years. Hell, I use my Switch way more these days than I do my Ps4 but Ps4 is still my default platform for online gaming sessions. You can't even interact with ur online friends or randos on Switch so playing online there barely feels like the true experience.

Also, the fact that Switch beats PC by that much is pretty crazy to me.
 
I'm sorry but that seems like bullshit. How the fuck would they even know who owns both consoles? Some IP address research? All through high school and college I barely met anyone (maybe 10%) with a ps3 and a 360 or ps4 and xbox one. Now a bunch of people do switch or buy another one eventually cuz they get bored of the same console.

Data shows that the majority of gamers only buy only a couple of games a year but you telling me somehow that they feel the need to own 2 consoles with a similar library, and just to play like 2 games per console? Come on now.
Publishers do get this type of data in communication with the platform holders. EA knew about XBox being around 30M and PS4 being around double that way back. Thing is that they occasionally send out questionnaires about “what gaming consoles do you own?” And if you check off more than one, even the ones you don’t actually use, it’s flagged as “X amount of people own more than one piece of hardware (ie PlayStation + non-PS platform) or “X amount of people only own this type of hardware (ie PlayStation hardware)”.


Here’s something from the PSN ToS that we are asked to agree to:
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A question with the weakening jpy in the very recent months, what conversion rates do the analysts use Sony's one or the one at the time of the earning call.



Separately Sony announced the next earnings call is May 10th.
 
A question with the weakening jpy in the very recent months, what conversion rates do the analysts use Sony's one or the one at the time of the earning call.



Separately Sony announced the next earnings call is May 10th.

Same day as Nintendo. That will be an interesting day.
 
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I don't think PS5 will meet it's 2 million target for Q4, I'm predicting 1.8m which will mean 11.3m for the fiscal year. Hope Sony can produce enough this coming FY to reach 15m although that would still be way short of the 17.7m PS4 shipments in 2015-16. I want PS5 to have a 20m+ year but that's not going to happen until FY 2023-24 at the earliest.
 
PS5-Hardware.png


PS4-Hardware.png


I don't think PS5 will meet it's 2 million target for Q4, I'm predicting 1.8m which will mean 11.3m for the fiscal year. Hope Sony can produce enough this coming FY to reach 15m although that would still be way short of the 17.7m PS4 shipments in 2015-16. I want PS5 to have a 20m+ year but that's not going to happen until FY 2023-24 at the earliest.
Do you happen to also have the numbers for the PS3?
 
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