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[Nikkei/Rumor] Next Switch development is "progressing well", due in 2024 [UPDATE: VGC/Eurogamer share more details]

What would be the best time for a new Switch 2024 launch ?

  • April-May 2024

    Votes: 158 42.8%
  • June-September 2024

    Votes: 77 20.9%
  • October-November 2024

    Votes: 134 36.3%

  • Total voters
    369
Nintendo isn't going to touch VR. It's going to be a more powerful Switch with some kind of new gimmick. Maybe they'll double down on the touch screen or some new joy con functionality.

If Nintendo ever did get crazy with new tech, IMO they would go after either holograms or some lite-AR. VR is not in their future.
Yeah. Nintendo tries 3d without glass and AR on 3ds. Nintendo sees video games as local multiplayer fun. So it´s more possible to try motion control with touch-sensitive holograms than VR or hololens or Apple approach.
 
I wonder if the next Nintendo hardware is going to have analogue triggers.
Its been a long time since they last used them on the Gamecube.
I honestly it's part of what tirns away lots of 3rd-parties. Not just racing games, but also games like GTA require them.

On that note: I hope Switch 2-joycons have proper analog stucks, not those flimsy things we have now.
 
I'm starting to think that at some point Nintendo had planned to launch Switch 2 much earlier, but the continued Switch 1-success made them postpone it, and now they're feeling arrogant and just keep finished games back for Switch 2 instead of releasing them now. And from a business pov, it might very well work. Zelda will keep riding its high. Pikmin 4 is a semi-big seller for the latter half of the year. Lots of 3rd-party games releasing.

If I were Nintendo, I'd keep back games for Switch 2, too. And since it's too early to reveal Switch 2, I'm not sure there will be any worthwhile Direct any time soon. Probably a whelming Partner Direct with an additional Pikmin 4-trailer or Pikmin 4 Direc-announcement.

The big question is: When will Nintendo reveal Switch 2? Before or after Christmas? If Switch 2 launches in spring 2024, not announcing it before Christmas might anger a lot of people.
 
Nintendo has talked about the Switch having a longer-than-usual lifespan for years, there is no universe where it would have launched before 2023.
That’s ultimately dependent on whether they view a hardware product’s lifespan in relation to when a new piece of hardware is released. A return to Famicom/NES or Super Famicom/SNES longevity after the release of new hardware would be “longer than usual”, it does not inherently suggest Game Boy-like longevity.
We can‘t operate on assumptions of what undefined terms and phrases are.
 
I'm starting to think that at some point Nintendo had planned to launch Switch 2 much earlier, but the continued Switch 1-success made them postpone it, and now they're feeling arrogant and just keep finished games back for Switch 2 instead of releasing them now. And from a business pov, it might very well work. Zelda will keep riding its high. Pikmin 4 is a semi-big seller for the latter half of the year. Lots of 3rd-party games releasing.

If I were Nintendo, I'd keep back games for Switch 2, too. And since it's too early to reveal Switch 2, I'm not sure there will be any worthwhile Direct any time soon. Probably a whelming Partner Direct with an additional Pikmin 4-trailer or Pikmin 4 Direc-announcement.

The big question is: When will Nintendo reveal Switch 2? Before or after Christmas? If Switch 2 launches in spring 2024, not announcing it before Christmas might anger a lot of people.
If the machine was meant to come out earlier but they are holding it back because of Switch’s continued success they are actively sabotaging themselves with quite a few parties. That would be arrogance not whatever they currently are doing. There is a timetable Nintendo is going with & people are just feeling really nasty cause it’s not Veruca now.

They are not announcing this thing pre-Christmas for a 2024 Spring launch. If they want to sell during Christmas then the time is ticking. If it’s after then it will depend on when they want to sell the device. Overall I doubt Nintendo is thinking of how “angry” some people will be.
 
Overall I doubt Nintendo is thinking of how “angry” some people will be.
People still remember the N64-price cut right after launch.
People remember the 3DS-price cut right after launch (and GBA-games were not the great compensation Nintendo might have thought it is).

Regardless, I think it'd leave a bad taste if Nintendo announced Switch in January/February 2024 for a May-launch.
 
That’s ultimately dependent on whether they view a hardware product’s lifespan in relation to when a new piece of hardware is released. A return to Famicom/NES or Super Famicom/SNES longevity after the release of new hardware would be “longer than usual”, it does not inherently suggest Game Boy-like longevity.
We can‘t operate on assumptions of what undefined terms and phrases are.
Nintendo is obviously referring to the Switch's active lifecycle as their flagship game system.
 
People still remember the N64-price cut right after launch.
People remember the 3DS-price cut right after launch (and GBA-games were not the great compensation Nintendo might have thought it is).

Regardless, I think it'd leave a bad taste if Nintendo announced Switch in January/February 2024 for a May-launch.
Define people because if all we are talking about are a fraction of enthusiast forum-goers then I think Nintendo can live with that. This is like the the various boycotts people have tried over Nintendo this gen leading to absolutely nothing within the grand scheme of things.

If they announce in Jan/Feb with a May release then that’s making issues out of anthills.
 
Nintendo is obviously referring to the Switch's active lifecycle as their flagship game system.
Based on what? Why would a corporation be adopting a largely consumer-generated opinion on their product lifecycle? If there’s evidence of that, I’d love to see it.
 
I'm starting to think that at some point Nintendo had planned to launch Switch 2 much earlier, but the continued Switch 1-success made them postpone it, and now they're feeling arrogant and just keep finished games back for Switch 2 instead of releasing them now. And from a business pov, it might very well work. Zelda will keep riding its high. Pikmin 4 is a semi-big seller for the latter half of the year. Lots of 3rd-party games releasing.
chip production contracts are signed well over a year out from launch. it takes at least 6 months for chips to even be made. and that's just the chips, they have to procure and stockpile all the other parts for the system and they all have to be ready in time for production (because waiting on parts costs money, see the auto industry during the pandemic).

these aren't pivots they can make at the last minute unless they want to pay penalties for tying up other companies' resources that go unutilized. if it isn't launching, it's most likely because it was never planned to launch at that point
 
Nintendo has talked about the Switch having a longer-than-usual lifespan for years, there is no universe where it would have launched before 2023.

This is true but plans can always change. GBA wasn't planned to last only 3 years and a half in the market as the only Nintendo supported handheld but, even if it was selling tremendously good, the company feared competition from Sony and released DS which was, at the beginning, a "third" pillar while becoming in a few years its main product.
 
Based on what? Why would a corporation be adopting a largely consumer-generated opinion on their product lifecycle? If there’s evidence of that, I’d love to see it.
There is nothing particularly noteworthy about a platform lasting for several years after its successor launches before getting discontinued.

I recall that Furukawa talked about how Switch was entering the "middle of its lifecycle" back in late 2020/early 2021. Given that the Switch successor doesn't look to be launching until early 2024 at the absolute earliest, it seems pretty samn clear he was referring Swutch having a long lifespan as Nintendo's flagship game system.
 
There is nothing particularly noteworthy about a platform lasting for several years after its successor launches before getting discontinued.

I recall that Furukawa talked about how Switch was entering the "middle of its lifecycle" back in late 2020/early 2021. Given that the Switch successor doesn't look to be launching until early 2024 at the absolute earliest, it seems pretty samn clear he was referring Swutch having a long lifespan as Nintendo's flagship game system.
OK, again, undefined terms. How long is that "middle" intended to last? Are the 3 stages measured in an equal number of years? If not, what's the expected distribution?

Also, if they are measuring based on when the successor hardware comes out and it's 2024... that's 7-7.5 years, depending on when in 2024 it releases (if they don't do something bonkers and have it for this holiday). That's not really all that "longer than usual", unless around an extra 6 months to a year is enough to be considered "longer than usual". I ran the numbers on this in another thread:
Excluding the GBC, GBA and Wii U (the shortest hardware cycles Nintendo has ever had, removed in the interest of fairness), the average time from hardware launch to the release of the next hardware is 6.395 years.
For just consoles except Wii U, the average is 5.87 years, less if Wii U is included.
For just handhelds except GBC/GBA, average is 7.26 years; OG Game Boy's obscene timeframe and removing GBC/GBA skews that figure immensely, so looking at just the two most recent handhelds, DS and 3DS, the average is 6.145 years.
Looking at the median averages for recent successful Nintendo hardware (and most of their hardware overall) before new hardware releases, it's not that wide of a gap. For this to be genuinely "longer than usual", we'd have to wait until 2025 or later to see a release.

This is what leads me to believe that Nintendo has some intention or another to support Switch with software for "longer than usual" and the commentary has nothing to do with hardware, as they have not supported a hardware platform with new software releases past year 8 since the Game Boy (and even that needed a cultural phenomenon like Pokemon to get software support at a regular pace again after it began to stall out in the year before Pokemon's release).

But while that's my interpretation with the data to somewhat back it up, it's just that, because.... I'll say it til I'm blue in the face... we don't know what the definition of these phrases actually are. And because they're not defined, people can insert whatever meaning they want them to have into them, which makes them practically useless to use as some sort of hard fact as you're trying to.
 
People still remember the N64-price cut right after launch.
People remember the 3DS-price cut right after launch (and GBA-games were not the great compensation Nintendo might have thought it is).

Regardless, I think it'd leave a bad taste if Nintendo announced Switch in January/February 2024 for a May-launch.

The N64 price cut actually happened before launch. It was supposed to launch at $250, but launched at $199.
 
People still remember the N64-price cut right after launch.
People remember the 3DS-price cut right after launch (and GBA-games were not the great compensation Nintendo might have thought it is).

Regardless, I think it'd leave a bad taste if Nintendo announced Switch in January/February 2024 for a May-launch.

Why would it be a bad taste? The kind of people who buy a system on its 7th holiday season is not the kind that would have otherwise bought a new generation in its launch year. As long as the OG switch support doesn't fall off a cliff after the succ releases, I don't see the issue.

The only issue I could see coming is from existing users that got the switch OLED as a replacement system this holiday season, and could've used that money to get the new-gen switch if they had waited half a year. However, the truly enthusiast crowd that buys consoles on its first year would have already gotten an OLED years ago and gotten quite a bit of use out of it. The venn diagram of people who waited this long to get a switch/upgrade to an OLED and the people who would otherwise get Drake on H2 2024 is extremely small.

Hell, I upgraded to an OLED until this january and I won't be pissed if the succ releases next year (in fact i'm expecting THAT to happen), because I still won't get it until I know its launch-year lineup.
 
They could have done it for the DS to 3DS and didn't. And so far, Nintendo hasn't followed the same playbook as PS or MS.
was that a think they could even do? could a ds game detect if it was running on a 3DS? DSi didn't have better hardware as far as I could remember, so that's out. and 3DS games could use the n3DS hardware if unlocked enough to stretch their legs
 
was that a think they could even do? could a ds game detect if it was running on a 3DS? DSi didn't have better hardware as far as I could remember, so that's out. and 3DS games could use the n3DS hardware if unlocked enough to stretch their legs

DSi did have better hardware, off the top of my head it had 16mb of RAM and a more powerful CPU. I believe a Sonic game ran better on DSi than other models.
 
DSi did have better hardware, off the top of my head it had 16mb of RAM and a more powerful CPU. I believe a Sonic game ran better on DSi than other models.
DSi and DSiXL have better hardware because of digital software (DSiWare). Was an ARM 9 with 133 MHz( against 67 MHz) and 4x the memory (16MB against 4MB). It´s a minor upgrades.
 
Nintendo released small games on 3ds way past the Switch release date.
To their detriment, I would say. Nintendo clearly didn't expect the bottom to fall out on 3DS HW/SW so quickly, but few of those titles really took off like they would have mid-generation. I can only really see this if the NS2 is backwards compatible. I don't really see many crossgen releases otherwise, bar special cases a la Twilight Princess/BOTW.
 
I still think one of the more interesting questions to ask about Switch 2 is: What will be Nintendo's big 1st-party games for 2024, 2025 and 2026?

Unlike Switch 1, Switch 2 won't have the triple-combo of Zelda, Mario and Xenoblade 2. Most of us probably expect a new 3d-Mario at launch, but what other big titles can we expect? Next Zelda and Xenoblade are years away. Animal Crossing probably, too.
 
I still think one of the more interesting questions to ask about Switch 2 is: What will be Nintendo's big 1st-party games for 2024, 2025 and 2026?

Unlike Switch 1, Switch 2 won't have the triple-combo of Zelda, Mario and Xenoblade 2. Most of us probably expect a new 3d-Mario at launch, but what other big titles can we expect? Next Zelda and Xenoblade are years away. Animal Crossing probably, too.
my thoughts within 24 months of launch
  • 3D Mario
  • Mario Kart 10
  • Smash Bros 6
  • Monolith Action Game
  • Fire Emblem
  • Kirby
  • Next Level's next game
and of course, new IPs that usually come with new systems
 
I still think one of the more interesting questions to ask about Switch 2 is: What will be Nintendo's big 1st-party games for 2024, 2025 and 2026?

Unlike Switch 1, Switch 2 won't have the triple-combo of Zelda, Mario and Xenoblade 2. Most of us probably expect a new 3d-Mario at launch, but what other big titles can we expect? Next Zelda and Xenoblade are years away. Animal Crossing probably, too.

Hard to know but I expext Mario Kart and a new 3D Mario. And I think we could probably expect a new Mercury Steam Metroid title. There will be aome new IP (there always is) and late 2025 it is possible for new Xenoblade or something from Monolith.

But I also expect third party support wont suck like the first year of the Switch so the pressure for the slate we got on Switch wont be as high.

I mean in 9 months it was

BOTW
MK8D
1,2 Switch
Arms
Splatoon 2
Pokken
Odyssey
Xenoblade 2

And even though it was a Ubisoft game Mario + Rabbids was in there too. I don't think if third party support is even current Switch levels they will need to have that level of software present.
 
But I also expect third party support wont suck like the first year of the Switch so the pressure for the slate we got on Switch wont be as high.
I expect Nintendo to go after third parties they want on the platform like they did for Switch.
I'm betting on Ubisoft (they released Watch Dogs on the WiiU!) for Assassin's Creed and Far Cry, CDProjekt for Cyberpunk and Witcher Remake and 2k for continued support and maybe RDR2
 
The only big new 1st party titles that will definitely miss the Switch 2 launch year are 3D Zelda and Splatoon. That sucks but certainly far from end of the world.


Commercially, probably a brand new Mario Kart will be more than enough, if the hardware will be compelling, the USP will be appealing and the price positioning will be wise
 
With the Wii getting Just Dance until like 2019, I'm curious how long 3rd party support will last on Switch 1 after next one releases. Not easy to just give up on such a large base.
they'll dump that shit immediately. they can't fuckin wait to dump that shit. companies like Capcom and SE got backlogs of ports ready to go. the only studios who won't be quick to drop it are indies and A/AA level studios. but even most AA studios will drop it quickly I think
 
I still think one of the more interesting questions to ask about Switch 2 is: What will be Nintendo's big 1st-party games for 2024, 2025 and 2026?

Unlike Switch 1, Switch 2 won't have the triple-combo of Zelda, Mario and Xenoblade 2. Most of us probably expect a new 3d-Mario at launch, but what other big titles can we expect? Next Zelda and Xenoblade are years away. Animal Crossing probably, too.
I think it will be important to have a few big single player games in there like Metroid Prime 4 and a 3D Mario. I think Metroid can generate a lot of buzz if it were to be a launch title. I think a surprise Smash Bros announcement could be in the cards too. The rest can be filled with major casual games like Mario Kart and Luigi's Mansion, Ring Fit adventure type of thing and Pokemon too. I think at this point Nintendo will have to hold off on big releases on Switch and focus their effort on their next machine. They need a steady flow of big games and with how long game development takes these days they will have planned this years in advance. The reasons for not having new hardware at this point could be that the software pipe line is not ready yet.
 
I think it will be important to have a few big single player games in there like Metroid Prime 4 and a 3D Mario. I think Metroid can generate a lot of buzz if it were to be a launch title. I think a surprise Smash Bros announcement could be in the cards too. The rest can be filled with major casual games like Mario Kart and Luigi's Mansion, Ring Fit adventure type of thing and Pokemon too. I think at this point Nintendo will have to hold off on big releases on Switch and focus their effort on their next machine. They need a steady flow of big games and with how long game development takes these days they will have planned this years in advance. The reasons for not having new hardware at this point could be that the software pipe line is not ready yet.
Prime 4 will almost certainly be on Switch 1 so I'm not sure it's gonna be a big deal for Switch 2 if it's crossgen. I am somewhat expecting Prime 4 to launch in H1 2024 as the last "big" flagship Nintendo game before H2 2024 has Switch 2.
 
With the Wii getting Just Dance until like 2019, I'm curious how long 3rd party support will last on Switch 1 after next one releases. Not easy to just give up on such a large base.
A and AA will be fine for a bit, but 2 years into next-gen I expect only casual games and indies to be present. At that point not even nintendo first party games will be there.
 
DLC or Remake could fill the bill for Zelda. Super Mario 64 DS and OoT 3DS were great launch titles and had very strong sales for their respective platforms.
They're not remakes but Wind Waker/Twilight Princess HD ports (maybe upscaled to 4K?) can fill in the gap nicely between TOTK and the next 3D Zelda.
 
Nintendo has talked about the Switch having a longer-than-usual lifespan for years, there is no universe where it would have launched before 2023.
You can launch a system in late 2023 and still have that promise fulfilled. The switch already has a longer lifespan than most of their consoles save for the GameBoy but that thing is an anomaly and not likely to be replicated again.

By this time in the switch’s lifecycle on other systems, a successor was already on the market. The switch exceeded the lifecycle. It already fulfilled its “promise”.
 
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