[Nikkei/Rumor] Next Switch development is "progressing well", due in 2024 [UPDATE: VGC/Eurogamer share more details]

[Lelouch0612]

In a recent article, Nikkei analysed Nintendo's recent financial reports and shared their insights about the next Nintendo platform:

To offset the Switch's decline and get back on the growth track, many are calling on the company to introduce a new console.

One is rumored to be due out next year. "Development seems to be progressing well," a source close to Nintendo told Nikkei Asia. "But a product launch won't happen before next spring at the earliest."

Nintendo expects Switch sales to slow further this year

'Mario' blockbuster could help give revenue a boost but console worries linger

asia.nikkei.com

Nintendo's forecast for the current FY basically ended any hopes of an earlier release. Switch's current momentum, while slowing down, should get one last big push with Tears of the Kingdom, whereas the price promotion card is always available for the Holidays.

While there are big questions about Nintendo's upcoming line-up, when would be the optimal timing for a 2024 launch ? What games do you expect to see before and at launch ?

 

[storres]

Great work as always, Lelouch0612.

 

[ILikeFeet]

still on team spring 2024. something akin to how the switch launched. 3D mario is still the big launch title, I expect

 

[Lite_Agent]

I remember when Nikkei reports had actual juicy stuff (like the 3DS XL stuff they ran before it was announced) instead of this "Captain Obvious" """"rumour"""".

For a while now, real question has been whether it'll be H1 and or H2 2024. Leaning towards H1 right now given current sales trends, but I guess that'll depend on what happens during rest of the year. Oh, and H2 line-up too. The fact that Nintendo's financials only listed one game for the rest of the year (Pikmin 4) is quite striking. They'll want some big stuff to meet their sales target, but if they're going for H1 launch, they'll want to save some stuff for that too (especially if they plan to repeat the Switch plan of "at least 1 game/month during launch year").

 

[Lelouch0612]

My quick take is that software will dictate first their launch timing, just like with the 3DS and the Switch that launched in early 2011/2017.

So, we'll get a better idea about the launch timing this Summer imho. Before TGS even.

 

[Ghostsonplanets]

My quick take is that software will dictate first their launch timing, just like with the 3DS and the Switch that launched in early 2011/2017.

So, we'll get a better idea about the launch timing this Summer imho. Before TGS even.

That's my take as well. Can't release new hardware without interesting software to take advantage of it. If Nintendo release schedule for this year is filled with smaller releases outside of ToTK, it will be clear that they're saving development resources for the next device.

 

[ILikeFeet]

I remember when Nikkei reports had actual juicy stuff (like the 3DS XL stuff they ran before it was announced) instead of this "Captain Obvious" """"rumour"""".

Nintendo clamped down hard on leaks, it seems. the WSJ article with the 11 devs and spices must have put them on edge

 

[Undead Warrior]

I was certain of a 24Q1 launch, but Nintwndo's forecast certainly proved me wrong.
I guess Q2 is still feasible but no idea what they would consider an ideal launch window. I'd assume it has more to do with how far along software is than hardware timing, right?

 

[LoneRanger]

They can make a spring launch with a new 3D game from EPD Tokyo.

Then some exclusive collaborations from external partners like (example) Platinium Games or Team Ninja. (Either using Nintendo IP or something).

And a new Mario Kart as big holiday title with western publishers support like COD, GTAVI and Assasins Creed.

Of course the year filled with lots of third party XOne/PS4 late ports.

 

[Vena]

I remember when Nikkei reports had actual juicy stuff (like the 3DS XL stuff they ran before it was announced) instead of this "Captain Obvious" """"rumour"""".

For a while now, real question has been whether it'll be H1 and or H2 2024. Leaning towards H1 right now given current sales trends, but I guess that'll depend on what happens during rest of the year. Oh, and H2 line-up too. The fact that Nintendo's financials only listed one game for the rest of the year (Pikmin 4) is quite striking. They'll want some big stuff to meet their sales target, but if they're going for H1 launch, they'll want to save some stuff for that too (especially if they plan to repeat the Switch plan of "at least 1 game/month during launch year").

My lean is H1 2024. Exactly how it materializes, I think, will depend on the slate of releases they have planned and how they are approaching being ready to go.

 

[fiendcode]

July 15, 2024 with a 3D Mario and new F-Zero.

 

[Sky2High]

These rumors SUCK. The Switch will be 7 years old come March 2024. We know a successor is coming, tell us something of value damnit.

 

[Lichtsang]

How about ... May 10th? Mario Day? It's a Friday next year. Launch with Mario, profit!

Edit: Just realized March 10th is Mario Day ...

 

[Smelly]

I prefer console releases that are further from Christmas than closer since it's usually easier to eventually get one. When you release in months like november there's a mad dash to get one for Christmas.

That's the sole reason I voted april-may.

 

[Phenom08]

Holiday 2024, no way in hell does Switch pull off a 15 million fiscal year without a major holiday title this year. Zelda and Pokemon are off the table, Mario is the only one left which just received massive mindshare due to a huge hollywood blockbuster movie. No way they then turn around with another major Mario launch game in early 2024 for Drake.

 

[Josh5890]

This is why I don't see Nintendo going quiet in June like Andy was speculating. Nintendo has nothing past Pikmin 4 in July and even Game Freak isn't launching a new Pokemon game this fall. There is no way Nintendo will just ride on DLC this fall.

 

[fiendcode]

Pokémon's getting it's "3rd version" DLC this holiday though. Which is a pretty major release itself.

 

[Lichtsang]

This is why I don't see Nintendo going quiet in June like Andy was speculating. Nintendo has nothing past Pikmin 4 in July and even Game Freak isn't launching a new Pokemon game this fall. There is no way Nintendo will just ride on DLC this fall.

Especially when they crammed spring needlessly with Maior Kart, XBC3 & FE DLC and Metroid Prime.

 

[Lite_Agent]

Nintendo clamped down hard on leaks, it seems. the WSJ article with the 11 devs and spices must have put them on edge

Not surprised, Switch gen. was particularly leaky. I'm guessing whoever at Ubi leaked all that Switch stuff ahead of reveal isn't at Ubi anymore

Still, I hope we're gonna get at least a couple bs "leaks" 'like the NX 'controller') before Nintendo officially reveals the Succ.

I still whenever I remember how people went crazy about this picture (despite, especially those people that actually analyzed the reflection and "determined" the picture had been taken at some Swedish(?) developer or something.

It was so obviously bs some people from NoA openly commented on it, which said a lot.

I prefer console releases that are further from Christmas than closer since it's usually easier to eventually get one. When you release in months like november there's a mad dash to get one for Christmas.

Yup, allows them to adjust production ahead of holiday season and mitigate shortages during November/December.

This is why I don't see Nintendo going quiet in June like Andy was speculating. Nintendo has nothing past Pikmin 4 in July and even Game Freak isn't launching a new Pokemon game this fall. There is no way Nintendo will just ride on DLC this fall.

What if they have a Direct this month instead of June? ;D

But yeah, only 1 game left on Nintendo's financials result planning (unless you're expecting Prime 4 to be released this year?), it's obvious they have some big reveal event (Direct) coming up.

 

[Josh5890]

Especially when they crammed spring needlessly with Maior Kart, XBC3 & FE DLC and Metroid Prime.

And Advance Wars three weeks before Zelda!

 

[ILikeFeet]

Not surprised, Switch gen. was particularly leaky. I'm guessing whoever at Ubi leaked all that Switch stuff ahead of reveal isn't at Ubi anymore

Still, I hope we're gonna get at least a couple bs "leaks" 'like the NX 'controller') before Nintendo officially reveals the Succ.

I still whenever I remember how people went crazy about this picture (despite, especially those people that actually analyzed the reflection and "determined" the picture had been taken at some Swedish(?) developer or something.

It was so obviously bs some people from NoA openly commented on it, which said a lot.

yea, Massive Entertainment

These rumors SUCK. The Switch will be 7 years old come March 2024. We know a successor is coming, tell us something of value damnit.

imagine if the Nvidia theft didn't happen. lol

 

[Lichtsang]

And Advance Wars three weeks before Zelda!

Yeah, why fill Spring up so much when you have nothing for H2?
And why go to Gamescom when you have literally nothing new to demo there?

We're for sure getting some kind of Direct.

 

[Himura Kenshin]

I prefer console releases that are further from Christmas than closer since it's usually easier to eventually get one. When you release in months like november there's a mad dash to get one for Christmas.

That's the sole reason I voted april-may.

This doesn't rule out a late year/Christmas release at all, in fact it makes it more likely.

Switch was released March 3, this puts it out of that same timeframe. So you assume April-May since March is out, but if they wanted it earlier in the year why not just go March again as it worked so well with the Switch? To me the top two probabilities are now later in the year or Q4 2025 (aka the following March). But going along with the premise provided by Nikkei that it will happen in 2024, that puts Q4 2025 off the table so then I return again to holiday-ish time. Both the Wii and WiiU released in November, Switch was the outlier with March, now that March is off the table, I believe they return to November. Again, going along with Nikkei's 2024 premise.

 

[Aleh]

April or May 2024 sounds just right to me.

 

[Aostia82]

Among the offered options, that are indicating the next FY, I'd go with a Christmas season launch (from October onward)
and, at this point, I totally expect their September Direct to surprise a lot of people with unannounced Switch software lineup (Metroid 4, a new Mario/Donkey Kong, Tomodatchi Life, etc...)

 

[jacsoncr]

I hope that the Nintendo development teams have the time to develop games with the new capabilities of the console, it is the only thing that matters

 

[hroerekr]

Seems a risky strategy the long period between the peak and the next system. Meanwhile, the competition ramp up production, user base, and mindshare.
Reminds me of the Wii transition that lost momentum.

 

[Lelouch0612]

The Zelda delay might have pushed plans a bit, especially on the software front given how EDP ressource intensive the game was.

Still a 2024 launch, means the following:

- 7 years since Super Mario Odyssey
- 6 years since Super Smash Bros. U
- 5 years since Three Houses
- 5 years since Luigi's Mansion 3
- 5 years since Yoshi's Crafted World
- 5 years since Ring Fit
- 5 Years since Super Mario Maker 2
- 4 years since Animal Crossing
- 4 years since Paper Mario

So Nintendo could have several games from these teams ready around the launch window + potential DLC for Zelda (and Pokémon ?).

 

[Lord Azrael]

So you assume April-May since March is out, but if they wanted it earlier in the year why not just go March again as it worked so well with the Switch?

What kind of logic is this? "If they do H1 then it has to be March, because that's what they did before"? Not like the Switch wouldn't have done well in April-May

 

[tentacle-tropes]

Seems a risky strategy the long period between the peak and the next system. Meanwhile, the competition ramp up production, user base, and mindshare.
Reminds me of the Wii transition that lost momentum.

The Wii transition lost momentum mostly because of software; specifically the stretches of notable software both 1st & 3rd party. The competition had little to do with it at that point in time. Even if they had momentum the next device was the WiiU so it wouldn’t have mattered in the least.

 

[Himura Kenshin]

What kind of logic is this? "If they do H1 then it has to be March, because that's what they did before"? Not like the Switch wouldn't have done well in April-May

First of all no one said it has to be March. Another note, no one said the Switch wouldn't have done well in April-May. Stop making up arguments no one cares about just so you can argue with yourself. Finally, it's the same logic that saw them launch the Wii and WiiU in November.

 

[Astrogamer]

First of all no one said it has to be March. Another note, no one said the Switch wouldn't have done well in April-May. Stop making up arguments no one cares about just so you can argue with yourself. Finally, it's the same logic that saw them launch the Wii and WiiU in November.

The Wii launch is 16 years old at this point and logistics are a fair bit different now. The Switch proved that holiday season launches aren't necessary. I would propose that a holiday launch isn't ideal unless you got a firm handle on production. If they run into yield issues like PS5/Xbox Series X, a launch sometime before June will allow them to resolve much of them by the first holiday. If the hardware still isn't ready, that may be the issue. Software shouldn't be the issue since TotK could have been made cross-gen like BotW as well as there being several Nintendo groups that haven't put out a title in a few years.

 

[Martin]

I am sure the console will launch with a big title like the Switch did with Zelda.
I don't see Nintendo doing the same 3DS, Wii U mistake where they wanted third parties to manly lead the system launches.

Because we get Tears of the Kingdom this Friday, I could see the Switch 2 or what ever it will be called releasing with a new 3D Mario game.
I still think Nintendo aims for an April-May release, as long as they have their big launch title ready for the release!

 

[Pikachupwnage]

My quick take is that software will dictate first their launch timing, just like with the 3DS and the Switch that launched in early 2011/2017.

So, we'll get a better idea about the launch timing this Summer imho. Before TGS even.

Agreed

Software being there early is vital to long term success especially for Nintendo.

Even if you right the ship after a poor launch...some devs and consumers already will jump ship or lose interest(look at 3DS. I daresay it would've done better and had somewhat better third party support if it hit the ground running with software. Still well below the DS mind you.)

And Wii U...was a disaster all around but the extremely weak software support was arguably the worst issue.)

 

[Himura Kenshin]

The Wii launch is 16 years old at this point and logistics are a fair bit different now. The Switch proved that holiday season launches aren't necessary. I would propose that a holiday launch isn't ideal unless you got a firm handle on production. If they run into yield issues like PS5/Xbox Series X, a launch sometime before June will allow them to resolve much of them by the first holiday. If the hardware still isn't ready, that may be the issue. Software shouldn't be the issue since TotK could have been made cross-gen like BotW as well as there being several Nintendo groups that haven't put out a title in a few years.

Sure, this is all fair and based on your presumptions. Can't argue with that. My presumptions tell me if Q4 is off the table, the next likeliest launch is the holiday season. And I back that up with Nintendo's previous two home consoles prior to the Switch launching during that time.

 

[Old sorta fan]

I voted November 2024 but really think March 2025 is the real answer.

 

[Baki]

I really thought we would get Switch 2 this holiday. I’m assuming SW development is taking a bit longer than expected and that’s why they’re targeting next FY. I think we might see a September 2024 release. It seems like a better release window than April 2024 and gets Switch 2 into stores for the holidays.

 

[Zeld]

In a past thread i gave 70% odds of early 2024 (H1) and 20% late 2024 (H2) (5%-2023/5%-2025) and im sticking more or less to that shifting those 5% to 30% late 2024 probably.

I think hardware development decides the general window but as some of you have said, software decides the exact window and right now i think we are in the stage of software being the deciding factor of when exactly is going to release.

With Nintendo's comments and this rumor in mind, i expect an April-May release since Summer is a quite rare launch window tha forces H1 of 2024 to be pretty pretty barren, September/October could be an option but at that point maybe you go full christmas and i think there are reasons for H1 release being better than Christmas release which are:
1) I don't think there is much juice to the Switch tank besides the last impulse that TotK may give. I expect H2 to be held by DLC of already existing games (Splatton, MK, Pokemon, Zelda (?)) a casual game (maybe 2D mario/yoshi) maybe a middle size dedicated game (some remake/remaster) and for the first time in the Switch life remarkable bundles/offers as they have emphasized their backcatalog and dlc as pillars for sustained Switch sales (plus they can change them depending on the demand they see) and their aim for more upgrading rather than new costumers since at this stage there is very few software that will entince new buyers already not served by the existing library.
2) An early release allows them to start building it's software library gradually. By that i mean, you can start by releasing a couple of games+1 every 2 months and by Christmas season have a decently size library to entice a diverse group of consumers+drop then the big guns in the highest point of consumer spending. Staggering release dates not to overwhelm the consumer but also not having empty months, giving games time to breath (and not being lost in christmas noise) but also smothing the lowest sales periods. (And building a userbase for the first Pokemon game of the system)
3) A late release would imply a long period of lost mindshare. If you are building games for the new system even if it is retrocompatible then you don't want to waste your biggest bullets to move already close to saturation hardware, but then, what do you release in the Switch meanwhile but smaller titles that don't capture much mindshare? I think half a year of that situation with a christmas in the middle is fine but a full year and a half feels like a bit too much and a mistake imo.
4) Early release allows them to ramp up production much earlier for the christmas season, since pre-release the units you can manufacture are limited by your inventory while after release you can fabricate much more since a lot of units go directly to consumers. Allowing them to reach a higher audience in their first christmas season which translates into bigger momentum.
5) This is speculation about the possible games but if they release early they can do so with Prime 4+MK9. Starting with the biggest evergreen, while catering to the dedicated crowd (and also with a game that can showcase the potential of the new hardware) with Prime 4, which also can have a simultaneos release on the Switch as BotW was with WiiU/Switch. And that configuration allows them to have a Pokemon remake+Mario/Mario adjecent first Christmas which would give the console insane momentum. Which feels better than a configuration of Pokemon remake+Metroid Christmas with MK and new Mario game in 2025.

Of course it is Nintendo and we lack much of the information about their development pipeline at the moment so maybe some of those points are weaker than the information that we have right now may suggest but i think they are pretty fair with the info we have as of today.

 

[Lite_Agent]

yea, Massive Entertainment

The amusing thing is that they're yet to release a single game on Switch yet (and most likely never will -- the Succ maybe?)

They did support work on South Park: The Fractured But Whole, but a different Ubisoft studio did the porting so they weren't even directly involved.

 

[Baki]

In a past thread i gave 70% odds of early 2024 (H1) and 20% late 2024 (H2) (5%-2023/5%-2025) and im sticking more or less to that shifting those 5% to 30% late 2024 probably.

I think hardware development decides the general window but as some of you have said, software decides the exact window and right now i think we are in the stage of software being the deciding factor of when exactly is going to release.

With Nintendo's comments and this rumor in mind, i expect an April-May release since Summer is a quite rare launch window tha forces H1 of 2024 to be pretty pretty barren, September/October could be an option but at that point maybe you go full christmas and i think there are reasons for H1 release being better than Christmas release which are:
1) I don't think there is much juice to the Switch tank besides the last impulse that TotK may give. I expect H2 to be held by DLC of already existing games (Splatton, MK, Pokemon, Zelda (?)) a casual game (maybe 2D mario/yoshi) maybe a middle size dedicated game (some remake/remaster) and for the first time in the Switch life remarkable bundles/offers as they have emphasized their backcatalog and dlc as pillars for sustained Switch sales (plus they can change them depending on the demand they see) and their aim for more upgrading rather than new costumers since at this stage there is very few software that will entince new buyers already not served by the existing library.
2) An early release allows them to start building it's software library gradually. By that i mean, you can start by releasing a couple of games+1 every 2 months and by Christmas season have a decently size library to entice a diverse group of consumers+drop then the big guns in the highest point of consumer spending. Staggering release dates not to overwhelm the consumer but also not having empty months, giving games time to breath (and not being lost in christmas noise) but also smothing the lowest sales periods. (And building a userbase for the first Pokemon game of the system)
3) A late release would imply a long period of lost mindshare. If you are building games for the new system even if it is retrocompatible then you don't want to waste your biggest bullets to move already close to saturation hardware, but then, what do you release in the Switch meanwhile but smaller titles that don't capture much mindshare? I think half a year of that situation with a christmas in the middle is fine but a full year and a half feels like a bit too much and a mistake imo.
4) Early release allows them to ramp up production much earlier for the christmas season, since pre-release the units you can manufacture are limited by your inventory while after release you can fabricate much more since a lot of units go directly to consumers. Allowing them to reach a higher audience in their first christmas season which translates into bigger momentum.
5) This is speculation about the possible games but if they release early they can do so with Prime 4+MK9. Starting with the biggest evergreen, while catering to the dedicated crowd (and also with a game that can showcase the potential of the new hardware) with Prime 4, which also can have a simultaneos release on the Switch as BotW was with WiiU/Switch. And that configuration allows them to have a Pokemon remake+Mario/Mario adjecent first Christmas which would give the console insane momentum. Which feels better than a configuration of Pokemon remake+Metroid Christmas with MK and new Mario game in 2025.

Of course it is Nintendo and we lack much of the information about their development pipeline at the moment so maybe some of those points are weaker than the information that we have right now may suggest but i think they are pretty fair with the info we have as of today.

SW is where they make money. They release SW on a large install base to make money. They’ll have a few next gen exclusives but they’ll still release plenty of bangers before the new console launches.

 

[Astral_lion02]

Holidays like Gamecube, Wii and Wii U is most likely.

April-May instead of March don't make sense.
If Nintendo want to release the console early 2024 they will chose March because it's at the end of the FY.

Jul-Sept is the worst possible period.

 

[Pooroomoo]

Do the 15 million this FY HAVE to be "old" Switch? Couldn't the following scenario be true: Switch 2 launch March 2024, Switch actually sells 13 million in the FY while Switch 2 launches with 2 million?

 

[Eddy]

Do the 15 million this FY HAVE to be "old" Switch? Couldn't the following scenario be true: Switch 2 launch March 2024, Switch actually sells 13 million in the FY while Switch 2 launches with 2 million?

What if Switch 2 actually launch on Friday March 29? It would affect their fiscal year projection the least :O

 

[RDragon]

Do the 15 million this FY HAVE to be "old" Switch? Couldn't the following scenario be true: Switch 2 launch March 2024, Switch actually sells 13 million in the FY while Switch 2 launches with 2 million?

Nintendo don’t usually do that. Despite having similar names and fully backwards compatible, the Wii U didn’t add to the Wii’s sells. Same with the GBA to original GameBoy and the DS to the 3DS.

 

[ILikeFeet]

The amusing thing is that they're yet to release a single game on Switch yet (and most likely never will -- the Succ maybe?)

They did support work on South Park: The Fractured But Whole, but a different Ubisoft studio did the porting so they weren't even directly involved.

Depends on Avatar, I guess. The game is prioritizing high end rendering with being exclusively ray traced

 

[Lelouch0612]

Holidays like Gamecube, Wii and Wii U is most likely.

April-May instead of March don't make sense.
If Nintendo want to release the console early 2024 they will chose March because it's at the end of the FY.

Jul-Sept is the worst possible period.

I would agree but it is the same company that launched two of their biggest games in January and May, which are the slowest months of the year.

 

[Baki]

Do the 15 million this FY HAVE to be "old" Switch? Couldn't the following scenario be true: Switch 2 launch March 2024, Switch actually sells 13 million in the FY while Switch 2 launches with 2 million?

They said projections does not include the launch of new switch hardware. That means no new Switch this FY.

 

[Zeld]

SW is where they make money. They release SW on a large install base to make money. They’ll have a few next gen exclusives but they’ll still release plenty of bangers before the new console launches.

I agree Software is king but a king is nothing without his kingdom. By your logic why would anyone bother releasing new HW when you can just sit in a massive installbase and sell them SW indefinetly? The reason is that the market doesn't work that way and there are very important synergistic mechanisms between SW and HW that are what makes the money. Yes SW is important but HW is too and Nintendo is famous for making money out of HW and not wanting to compromise HW profits for higher SW sales. I think there would be more crossgen titles than usual for Nintendo (although less than people think imo) so yeah they will not completly abandon the Switch installbase but they have a high interest in transitioning that installbase to new HW

 

[awng782]

I used to think Switch 2 was a lock for early 2024 but that doesnt seem likely anymore TBH. I'm betting holiday 2024 now.

 

[Josh5890]

The Zelda delay might have pushed plans a bit, especially on the software front given how EDP ressource intensive the game was.

Still a 2024 launch, means the following:

- 7 years since Super Mario Odyssey
- 6 years since Super Smash Bros. U
- 5 years since Three Houses
- 5 years since Luigi's Mansion 3
- 5 years since Yoshi's Crafted World
- 5 years since Ring Fit
- 5 Years since Super Mario Maker 2
- 4 years since Animal Crossing
- 4 years since Paper Mario

So Nintendo could have several games from these teams ready around the launch window + potential DLC for Zelda (and Pokémon ?).

- 7 years since Super Mario Odyssey- EPD 8 is waaaaaay overdue for a release. Makes too much sense not to be a launch title.
- 6 years since Super Smash Bros. U- Probably the biggest wild card since Sakurai is seemingly retired. Who knows what direction Nintendo will take the franchise now.
- 5 years since Three Houses- Engage just came out and the rumored Geneology remake is close. I don't think a new Fire Emblem will be out for a few years.
- 5 years since Luigi's Mansion 3- Next Level Games released Mario Strikers last year. We are probably a couple of years out from seeing their next title.
- 5 years since Yoshi's Crafted World- Good Feel is overdue for a release. Whatever they are cooking could be for the current Switch or launch window on the next hardware.
- 5 years since Ring Fit- EPD 4 had Switch Sports last year, but they tend to do smaller projects (compared to other teams) so a 2024 release from them isn't crazy to consider.
- 5 Years since Super Mario Maker 2- EPD 10 is wrapping up Pikmin 4 right now. That group probably won't have anything else for a while.
- 4 years since Animal Crossing- EPD 5 made Splatoon 3, so it depends on what Nintendo wants to prioritize for the next system.
- 4 years since Paper Mario- Intelligent Systems just finished Fire Emblem: Engage, and there are rumors of a TTYD remaster. A new Paper Mario is a bit off.

A few other teams to consider:

EPD 9 (Mario Kart)- We haven't seen a new game from them for years. It has been all DLC. They have to have something cooking.
ND Cube (Mario Party)- 2024 will mark three years since Superstars. They could be due
Grezzo (Link's Awakening)- It will be five years since LA HD. They are definitely due by 2024.
Nintendo Software Technology (Bowser's Fury)- Three years since Bowser's Fury, which wasn't a big title. Captain Toad 2 anyone?

So yes, assuming Nintendo isn't holding back on a bunch of new 2023 games, they would have several teams lined up for 2024.