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Media Create Prediction League : October 2022 [FULL RESULTS]

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[NSW] Nier Automata (4 days) - 35.000
[NSW] Persona 5 Royal (3 days) - 48.000
[PS4+PS5] Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 (3 days) - 50.000
[NSW] Bayonetta 3 (3 days) -65.000
[PS4+PS5] Star Ocean 6 (4 days) -41.000
 
[NSW] Nier Automata (4 days) - 39.000
[NSW] Persona 5 Royal (3 days) - 51.000
[PS4+PS5] Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 (3 days) - 57.000
[NSW] Bayonetta 3 (3 days) - 49.000
[PS4+PS5] Star Ocean 6 (4 days) - 43.000
 
[NSW] Nier Automata (4 days) - 41.300
[NSW] Persona 5 Royal (3 days) - 82.050
[PS4+PS5] Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 (3 days) - 45.427
[NSW] Bayonetta 3 (3 days) - 84.808
[PS4+PS5] Star Ocean 6 (4 days) - 57.000
 
[NSW] Nier Automata (4 days) - 41.121
[NSW] Persona 5 Royal (3 days) - 39.444
[PS4+PS5] Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 (3 days) - 58.876
[NSW] Bayonetta 3 (3 days) - 54.321
[PS4+PS5] Star Ocean 6 (4 days) - 58.980
 
Huge spreads this month!

Here are the median predictions for September (min <> max):

[NSW] Nier Automata (4 days) - 46.464 (22.000 <> 111.000) --> actual result: 30.218
[NSW] Persona 5 Royal (3 days) - 63.755 (30.000 <> 145.000) --> actual result: 45.998
[PS4+PS5] Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 (3 days) - 60.000 (38.000 <> 105.000) --> actual result: 42.081
[NSW] Bayonetta 3 (3 days) - 62.000 (35.038 <> 99.999) --> actual result: 41.285
[PS4+PS5] Star Ocean 6 (4 days) - 51.000 (30.000 <> 90.000) --> actual result: 44.178

The most bull-ish predictor of the month is @Nocturnal, expecting no less than 511.000 units sold across all predictions.
The most bear-ish predictor of the month is @kamaitachi, expecting only 205.000 units sold across all predictions.

@Eren Jaeger's predictions are closest to the median (in terms of %).
@Nocturnal's predictions are farthest away from the median.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
DarkDetective said:
Huge spreads this month!

Here are the median predictions for September (min <> max):

[NSW] Nier Automata (4 days) - 46.464 (22.000 <> 111.000) --> actual result: 30.218
[NSW] Persona 5 Royal (3 days) - 63.755 (30.000 <> 145.000)
[PS4+PS5] Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 (3 days) - 60.000 (38.000 <> 105.000)
[NSW] Bayonetta 3 (3 days) - 62.000 (35.038 <> 99.999)
[PS4+PS5] Star Ocean 6 (4 days) - 51.000 (30.000 <> 90.000)

The most bull-ish predictor of the month is @Nocturnal, expecting no less than 511.000 units sold across all predictions.
The most bear-ish predictor of the month is @kamaitachi, expecting only 205.000 units sold across all predictions.

@Eren Jaeger's predictions are closest to the median (in terms of %).
@Nocturnal's predictions are farthest away from the median.
Click to expand...
The first time I get mentioned in these threads. Let's hope IB's average is better than last month.
 
Nier & Persona results
  • Index
    • Nier Automata

    Bpltsy1.png


    The Install Base consensus was a bit too high for Nier, around 15.000 units too high. The game's price, coupled with the anime in January and a promising 2nd week drop, still are pointing toward a good performance overall for the late port.

    Congrats to @kamaitachi with their excellent 30.000 prediction, followed by @TheSilentWombat and @NinnyKirby at #2 and #3. Only the top 2 was below 5% of error margin !

    Persona 5 Royal

    AKLgWNE.png



    The Persona hype was palpable on Install Base and probably pushed the consensus too high, a little less than a 20.000 units gap with the actual retail launch.

    Congrats to @mariodk18 and @Chris1964 with their excellent 46.103 & 45.678 predictions, they were followed by @TheSilentWombat (again!) at #3. All of them were below 2.5% of error margin ! Congrats !
     
  • Index
    • Lelouch0612 said:
    Nier Automata

    Bpltsy1.png


    The Install Base consensus was a bit too high for Nier, around 15.000 units too high. The game's price, coupled with the anime in January and a promising 2nd week drop, still are pointing toward a good performance overall for the late port.

    Congrats to @kamaitachi with their excellent 30.000 prediction, followed by @TheSilentWombat and @NinnyKirby at #2 and #3. Only the top 2 was below 5% of error margin !

    Persona 5 Royal

    AKLgWNE.png



    The Persona hype was palpable on Install Base and probably pushed the consensus too high, a little less than a 20.000 units gap with the actual retail launch.

    Congrats to @mariodk18 and @Chris1964 with their excellent 46.103 & 45.678 predictions, they were followed by @TheSilentWombat (again!) at #3. All of them were below 2.5% of error margin ! Congrats !
    Click to expand...

    *when you know your overall rank for the month already*

    >_>
     
    Lelouch0612 said:
    You cannot say we didn't warn you :p
    Click to expand...
    All jokes aside, this really is the deep-rooted desire to see those big numbers again that we had during the PS2- and NDS-era. I've been following MC-threads sind all the way back then and it always was a sight when a game managed to sell several hundred thousands at launch or even millions in the case of FF and DQ. Nowadays big numbers are reserved for Nintendo, the rest makes, as I mentioned in MC-threads before, around 200k at best. As much as I my personal interest is happy over Nintendo's success, I wish 3rd-parties would see more success, too. Ofc, that's mostly 3rd-parties' own fault, considering how the ignore to put their biggest games on Switch.

    Sorry for offtopic ;>
     
    Tokuiten said:
    All jokes aside, this really is the deep-rooted desire to see those big numbers again that we had during the PS2- and NDS-era. I've been following MC-threads sind all the way back then and it always was a sight when a game managed to sell several hundred thousands at launch or even millions in the case of FF and DQ. Nowadays big numbers are reserved for Nintendo, the rest makes, as I mentioned in MC-threads before, around 200k at best. As much as I my personal interest is happy over Nintendo's success, I wish 3rd-parties would see more success, too. Ofc, that's mostly 3rd-parties' own fault, considering how the ignore to put their biggest games on Switch.

    Sorry for offtopic ;>
    Click to expand...

    We are talking about ports that came out way too late. And in an era where 20-40% of the sales don't show on these charts. Ps2 era for third parties was crazy though, never see that again
     
    Lelouch0612 said:
    Persona 5 Royal

    AKLgWNE.png



    The Persona hype was palpable on Install Base and probably pushed the consensus too high, a little less than a 20.000 units gap with the actual retail launch.

    Congrats to @mariodk18 and @Chris1964 with their excellent 46.103 & 45.678 predictions, they were followed by @TheSilentWombat (again!) at #3. All of them were below 2.5% of error margin ! Congrats !
    Click to expand...
    Oh geez, didn't expect to be that spot on. I have to say, when I first saw I was mentioned by Lelouch I thought I was in trouble, like when you get called to the principal's office.

    Regardless, the reason for my prediction being so "low" compared to the median was because I've been burned too many times by being optimistic on late (or even later) ports on Switch. Over nearly 6 years of the Switch's life in Japan, I began to notice a "pattern" or trend of how these ports would perform. Namely, how most of them seemed to never really cross or go much higher than 20K FW. It didn't matter if it was Dragon Ball FighterZ, Xenoverse 2, Danganronpa, Fatal Frame, FF X, FF XII, etc.- there seemed to be this mythical "20k barrier".

    Except for a few high profile titles, most late ports didn't do crazy numbers, rarely doing over 100k. So I took that 20k bar into account and figured P5R would do at least double, given the Smash promotion, the spin-offs, its critical reception, including all the DLC, compared other later ports of Atlus games...shaved off a bit for digital and voila! 46,103 FW physical for P5R.
     
    CanineGrouchyFrog-size_restricted.gif

    Did you ever hear the tragedy of @Tokuiten the Acquire Whale? I thought not...
    Tokuiten said:
    ...this really is the deep-rooted desire to see those big numbers again that we had during the PS2- and NDS-era. I've been following MC-threads sind all the way back then and it always was a sight when a game managed to sell several hundred thousands at launch or even millions in the case of FF and DQ. Nowadays big numbers are reserved for Nintendo, the rest makes, as I mentioned in MC-threads before, around 200k at best. As much as I my personal interest is happy over Nintendo's success, I wish 3rd-parties would see more success, too. Ofc, that's mostly 3rd-parties' own fault, considering how the ignore to put their biggest games on Switch.
    Click to expand...
    tumblr_p14c8l2Z5l1w8mobyo4_500.gif

    ...but not himself from ending up dead last. I know what you're thinking Nopon Anakin. Holy Invasion of Prediction League, BadMan! What Did I Do to Deserve This? Continue buying Akiba’s Trip Dumpster Fire Trash in order to keep the GungHo free to play wolves at bay as you subsidise sumi-e drpgs like Labyrinth of Zangestu. Now you too, can learn this power...
    qVVvNsB.gif
     
    Another successful month for me. /s

    But being the closest to average, I already know I can't be dead-last at least.
     
    Joseki said:
    LOL every single game was overpredicted.
    Click to expand...

    Well at least that can't be called a Sony/Nintendo bias but just being overenthusiastic or games underperforming, but I'm leaning towards the former rather than the latter.

    SO6 is the only one where I was above average/median because I did expect the IP to still have some pull but its numbers are atrocious.
     
    CoD, Bayo and SO6 results !
  • Index
    • Call of Duty: Modern Warfare II

    bBHSTgs.png


    The Install Base consensus was once again too high for CoD, around 20.000 units too high. People expected a rebound from Vanguard (which happened in the West) but it was not the case

    Congrats to @ktpoison with their excellent 42.000 prediction, followed by @Spikeylord and @MarcoP90 at #2 and #3. Only four people were below 10% of error margin (@Tbone5189 rounds up the top 4) !

    Bayonetta 3

    BELBSaM.png


    The Install Base consensus was once again too high for Bayonetta, around 20.000 units too high. Early tracking suggested a higher opening, but that's not the first time vouchers are making predictions harder for us, and retailers.

    Congrats to @Mr Swine with their excellent 41.000 prediction, followed by @mariodk18 and @BoktaiFan at #2 and #3. They were all below 5% of error margin !

    Star Ocean 6

    FSj5Nk1.png


    The Install Base consensus was once again too high for Star Ocean, but this time only around 10.000 units too high. A big decline was expected but it ended being higher than we predicted.

    Congrats to @PillFencer with their excellent 44.099 prediction, followed by @Abzeronow and @Arynio at #2 and #3. They were all below 3% of error margin !
     
  • Index
    • Full results !
  • Index
    • UmSq0j6.png

    agdq0WJ.png


    Congrats to @kamaitachi for being the top predictor of the month and to @Arynio and @NinnyKirby who round up the podium very nicely.

    It was a peculiar month with many releases being below the 50k treshold, it is usually something I want to avoid because of the impact a few thousands units have on the error margin. Still, we are dependant on the games launching during the month.

    Hopefully, we'll do better in November ;)

    You can still predict here:
    www.installbaseforum.com

    Media Create Prediction League : November 2022 [LESS THAN 48H REMAINING!]

    Hello everyone ! While we are still waiting on the final results of October, it is already time to open the November edition of the Prediction League ! We are aiming to host this prediction contest every month, when the release schedule allows it. The rules are simple, you can make and edit...
    www.installbaseforum.com www.installbaseforum.com
     
  • Index
    • I was worried NieR would push me off the top 10, cool. Guess we should learn to aim as low as possible for CoD huh, that's two entries in a row
     
    Again overpredicted everything. Trying to stay on the lower end this month.
     
    And here I thought my P5R-prediction slaughtered me. Well, it kinda did, but at least my 2nd month in a row not last place >_>
     
    Middle of the road (by my standards at least), but happy to be second closest for COD:MWII - even if it was by being extremely pessimistic about the chances, or at least I thought I was being pessimistic but turned out to be optimistic accidentally...
     
    Right in the middle. Not my worst month, at least. But I should start the habit of substracting a few thousands from my prediction to prevent too optimistic numbers.
     
    After quite a few months overpredicting stuff I decided to be a little more pessimistic this month. And, while I still ended up overpredicting pretty much everything, it payed off. Tough month, though. Thanks, Lelouch!
     
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