Media Create Prediction League : October 2022 [FULL RESULTS]

[Lelouch0612]

Nier Automata

The Install Base consensus was a bit too high for Nier, around 15.000 units too high. The game's price, coupled with the anime in January and a promising 2nd week drop, still are pointing toward a good performance overall for the late port.

Congrats to @kamaitachi with their excellent 30.000 prediction, followed by @TheSilentWombat and @NinnyKirby at #2 and #3. Only the top 2 was below 5% of error margin !

Persona 5 Royal

The Persona hype was palpable on Install Base and probably pushed the consensus too high, a little less than a 20.000 units gap with the actual retail launch.

Congrats to @mariodk18 and @Chris1964 with their excellent 46.103 & 45.678 predictions, they were followed by @TheSilentWombat (again!) at #3. All of them were below 2.5% of error margin ! Congrats !

 

[Lelouch0612]

Call of Duty: Modern Warfare II

The Install Base consensus was once again too high for CoD, around 20.000 units too high. People expected a rebound from Vanguard (which happened in the West) but it was not the case

Congrats to @ktpoison with their excellent 42.000 prediction, followed by @Spikeylord and @MarcoP90 at #2 and #3. Only four people were below 10% of error margin (@Tbone5189 rounds up the top 4) !

Bayonetta 3

The Install Base consensus was once again too high for Bayonetta, around 20.000 units too high. Early tracking suggested a higher opening, but that's not the first time vouchers are making predictions harder for us, and retailers.

Congrats to @Mr Swine with their excellent 41.000 prediction, followed by @mariodk18 and @BoktaiFan at #2 and #3. They were all below 5% of error margin !

Star Ocean 6

The Install Base consensus was once again too high for Star Ocean, but this time only around 10.000 units too high. A big decline was expected but it ended being higher than we predicted.

Congrats to @PillFencer with their excellent 44.099 prediction, followed by @Abzeronow and @Arynio at #2 and #3. They were all below 3% of error margin !

 

[Lelouch0612]

Congrats to @kamaitachi for being the top predictor of the month and to @Arynio and @NinnyKirby who round up the podium very nicely.

It was a peculiar month with many releases being below the 50k treshold, it is usually something I want to avoid because of the impact a few thousands units have on the error margin. Still, we are dependant on the games launching during the month.

Hopefully, we'll do better in November

You can still predict here:

Media Create Prediction League : November 2022 [LESS THAN 48H REMAINING!]

Hello everyone ! While we are still waiting on the final results of October, it is already time to open the November edition of the Prediction League ! We are aiming to host this prediction contest every month, when the release schedule allows it. The rules are simple, you can make and edit...

www.installbaseforum.com