Pandemic demand was a mirage everyone fell for.
Had there been regular supply, 2022 would've been a clear peak year and 2023 an expected downturn.
But no, demand wasn't satisfied just yet leaving 2022 and Q1 2023 was insane because of it.
Do you think Playstation will reach its 25m target for the FY ?
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Had there been regular supply, 2022 would've been a clear peak year and 2023 an expected downturn.
But no, demand wasn't satisfied just yet leaving 2022 and Q1 2023 was insane because of it.
Not sure how you got that number. It was 50 million sell through after the 9th in December. 54.8 million shipped by the end of the year. Probably closer to 2 million difference then 4.
Ah, I thought the 50m was for the 20th. Even still, 2m or 3m or whatever, stuffing to 4.6m in Q1 is unrealistic imo.
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Surprise, surprise...
Sony seem to be resistant to learning and cling to 21 million, but well, if they want to fall flat on their face then go ahead.
Damn. Not sure if anyone keeps track but missing your target by 4-5 million must be something of a record. Obviously PS5 is still an absolute juggernaut but I guess that just shows how wild their forecast was.
Also whilst I do think PS5 has peaked i wouldn’t underestimate the potential of a HW revisions and GTA6. With Xbox dead and buried this gen and no PC version we’re going to see some serious PS5 HW moved when that shit drops.
Also whilst I do think PS5 has peaked i wouldn’t underestimate the potential of a HW revisions and GTA6. With Xbox dead and buried this gen and no PC version we’re going to see some serious PS5 HW moved when that shit drops.
I think the effect of GTA VI on hardware is being overestimated, not saying will not have an impact, but I don't think will be so big because a lot of GTA players certainly already entered in this gen.
Plus Xbox isn't dead and buried, it remains on the market and can also attract some players on the GTA hype train.
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Depending HW revision price. Oh it might again selling at loss and thus tanking their profits.
Xbox Series selling less than Xbox One and PS is still behind PS4....I don't think there will be some miracle for Playstation either.
That’s certainly a possibility. GTAVI is probably going to be the biggest game launch of all time, that’s going to bring a lot of interest and not just from GTA players.
Maybe dead and buried is the wrong word choice but it’s already getting dwarfed by PS5 and I don’t see that situation improving. I personally think most of the HW being driven by GTAVI will be heading towards PS.
If GTA6 is releasing June 2025, PS5 installbase will be ~82m by then and XBS ~33m. T2 will be fine with ~115m installbase and potential hardware boost on GTA6 release and byond.
Sony isn't doing 28m in the next 18 months. I doubt they even target that high, they already said they expect a hardware decline next FY.
What size userbase did GTAV launch to?
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Do these margins include price increase in Europe? Not sure when the price increase happened.
GTA6 will be very interesting to see. It will probably come out after the next FY or right at the end. I’m most interested in the comparison with the then much talked about Fortnite/PUBG effect that helped hardware sales last generation. Will be interesting to compare how they compare.
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A cursory google search shows around 160 million in november of 2013, GTAV launched in September.
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I think GTA attachment rate will be quite high. Like it should be bigger than Elden Ring, Hogwarts on just consoles.
~82m is feasible unless PS5 sales tank to 15m next FY. I expect 19m next FY.
19m likely isn't far off from what this FY will end up. Next year will be less.
Doable but missable too IMHO.
They eat into their own hype fueled by the pandemic demand and the dynamics brought in by the ensuing manufacturing shortages.
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Or Microsoft could go very agressive and make a marketing deal for GTA VI.
MS Store day one timed exclusivity, PC gamers riot...
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Considering that they are even planning to give their games to Playstation, I don't think they will even bother with GTA marketing. It will also be more expensive for them than for Playstation anyway. Plus no PC release.
The problem is more that less that 3 million in the channel is honestly low for them in the holiday season. I was expecting more like 10 million this quarter. Makes me wonder if retailers aren't requesting as much stock. That is what might be bringing down shipments to below 20 million.
21M is pie in the sky. No way.
So we're looking at what realistically, 18-19M then? That would be a 6-7M miss on hardware forecasts. Maybe 20M if everything goes their way?
So we're looking at what realistically, 18-19M then? That would be a 6-7M miss on hardware forecasts. Maybe 20M if everything goes their way?
Back when Nintendo missed their aggressive Switch HW forecast their stock price tumbled and we got a whole slate of Nintendoomed news articles, surely the same will happen to Sony now right...?
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I’ll be completely honest, I don’t think it will, really.
Like many said, I think Sony might’ve overestimated pandemic demand. We’ll see what happens in Q4 but yeah.
Don't think so, Nintendo always seems more likely to be declared doomed over Sony Playstation. Probably because of failures such as Camecube and Wii U previously.
Sony already know what they shipped in month and half of 4Q, along with sell trough. If they cant get this Q FC right then they may as well stop providing that information in future.
We knew 25m was unrealistic back in September too. Sony being over ambitious with targets isn't exactly new.
8.2mil for Q3... I guess record breaking Q3 didn't happen... probably won't happen in Q4 either
70% of users voted in the poll already knew PS5 would ship lower than 24 mil. Yet Sony still insisted on 25 mil target in last earning call. What makes you think they actually know better this time? It's more likely than not that they are going to miss 21 mil target too.
70% of users voted in the poll already knew PS5 would ship lower than 24 mil. Yet Sony still insisted on 25 mil target in last earning call. What makes you think they actually know better this time? It's more likely than not that they are going to miss 21 mil target too.
I am not totally sure with Sony's cadence but I would figure you don't want to announce you'll miss you FY target before the biggest season of the year occurs. They likely knew but there are probably other strategic reasons to wait until after the Q3 report to cut your forecast. One of them being that you will be deeper into Q4 when you give the revision.
I would agree, if they don't know what they are going to ship in the next month and a half, that's wildly problematic. I feel it's pretty rare to miss reduced projections like this.
Sony already knew 25 million wasn't gonna happen, but only changed the forecast now.
They can easily just have chosen to not drop the target more, softening the disappointment.
4.6m on Q4 sounds to high.
Just to hammer this in, Sony knew what they had shipped in October and what they were shipping in November when they said 25M was still the goal, and then they only shipped 8.2M that quarter.
Sony saying they want 4.6M this quarter is just cope to investors so they don't say "yeah so we're cutting our forecast by nearly 6M, don't sell that stock please".
If Rockstar actually stops messing around and launch day and date with PC (Steam), their pre-orders/day 1 numbers would be so gargantuan no other piece of entertainment would ever come close until.... well GTA VII
VI for sure will release to a smaller user base than V did, but hey maybe Rockstar really loves that staggered launch strategy.
75€ price cut (temporary but this type of flash deals are becoming the norm here) in Italy
Playstation 5 in Europe is remembering me of Xbox One, so many deals that hardware will not move at regular price.
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21 Million is not a guarantee either. PS5 hardware is down over 100K YTD vs last year in Japan. PS5 sales were down 17% in the UK in January. I expect the US will have a decent drop as well.
They might still hit it but I would bet more on 20-20.5.
Just to add to this, there has probably been a bit over 100k Spider-man bundles sold since the beginning of the year...but those bundles were delivered in December when the started selling the promotion based on Famitsu's sell through estimates. So shipments will be further down.
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The software also isn’t there to move as many units of hardware as they forecast.
PS5 was up in Europe in January, yes.
Wasn't the EU up YoY data missing UK and Germany, with UK officially down -17% YoY?
Not sure that PS5 was up in the EU as a whole
Let's see US, with japan officially down by a lot so far.
Mainland Europe without Germany (and UK, of course), which is ultimately a somewhat small market. NPD will give us the final conclusion, but a repeat of last Q4 isn't in the cards really.
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I believe the data you are referring to does not cover UK or Germany and the total consoles sold (including switch + Xbox) was only 475,000.
That's not going to make their forecast come true with a slight increase vs last year