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Do you think Playstation will reach its 25m target for the FY ?

Do you think Playstation will reach its 25m target for the FY ?

  • Yes, it will sell 25m !

    Votes: 17 12.4%

  • No, but it will barely miss it (24m-25m)

    Votes: 28 20.4%

  • No, it will miss it by a fair margin (<24m)

    Votes: 92 67.2%
  • Total voters
    137
Lelouch0612

Lelouch0612

Staff
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Sony is aiming to sell 25m PS5 by the end of the FY (March 2024), a target regularly mentioned as achievable, even a week ago.

This would beat Playstation's previous record by a good margin and make it close the gap with the Playstation 4 launch-aligned. Several analysts and sales enthusiasts shared their thoughts on the target, so let's make a summary of the arguments on both sides.


+ Sony is confident they will be able to ship that amount of consoles
+ Sony is confident the target is reachable, just like last year, where they were able to pull through despite resonable doubts
+ Sony is launching a hardware refresh this November in the US/Japan.
+ Spider-Man 2 had a record-breaking launch and should be a great hardware mover

- They only shipped 3.3m units in the first quarter, so there's 21,7m to sell between July 23 and March 24.
- Inventory is at a high level
- The discount option has already been used several times during the year
- Price increase in Japan

So in your opinion, how many PS5 will be sold this FY ? And why ?
 
25 million on the dot
i think they will make it but the discounts especially the rumored one by billbil-kun makes me think they are going make some loss of hardware but will try to offset it with the amazing software
 
want to be a 'coward' and wait for the next earning call before making a guess but if i had to, 23m would be my guess. If they do hit that 25m, they are definitely not focusing on profit margins.
 
I’m still thinking we need to know how low SIE will go price wise if they still want to get this done. The price promotions during the summer coupled with the low quarter 1 showed that demand has slowed from the height of it getting into stock and that this wasn’t forecasted. The delayed launch of the slim along with them saying they are cutting hardware profit forecasts also speaks to this.

They could have two record breaking quarters upcoming for them off of price promotions, 5 and 12 million for Q2 and Q3. That Q3 would eclipse anything ps4 has done IIRC…but that still probably wouldn’t be enough if Q4 went back to regular prices, as they’d need another 4.7 million and postholiday stock would still be sitting there. Q2 will illuminate a lot though.

I will say there was a price increase in the US with the digital sku. But I see that at least with Japan, trying to cut the knees of exports and tourists does have a bit more standing in terms of negatives for selling overall.
 
reksveks said:
want to be a 'coward' and wait for the next earning call before making a guess but if i had to, 23m would be my guess. If they do hit that 25m, they are definitely not focusing on profit margins.
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They're definitely focusing on profit margins as well since they didn't drop the base price of the slim like they did when they released prior generations' slim models. That they're confident that they can hit their target (although I voted they'd fall into the 24m camp myself) just shows the incredibly good position that Sony seems to have maneuvered itself into or at least, that its executives believe to have done so. We'll see if they can come close to or possibly reach their lofty goals, but nobody should be thinking that they're not profit-focused as the poster I quoted seems to believe.
 
23 million is max they can get to IMO. Digital sku price increase in USA shows they are not willing to do anything to reach 25m which is right thing to do. They likely have lost hundreds of millions on failed GAAS projects, cannot afford more hardware losses in this climate.
 
Feel like there will be very direct signs coming out within the next two weeks that will make it more clear.

I’d say 23-24m right now. Its kind of a shoot for the stars land in the clouds situation either way. Even if they fall short 2m, it would still be a record setting year for them
 
I'm thinking 22-23M. Not much more. Still huge of course, but there are some indicators that they aren't that adamant to reach the target anymore.
 
Megiddo said:
They're definitely focusing on profit margins as well since they didn't drop the base price of the slim like they did when they released prior generations' slim models. That they're confident that they can hit their target (although I voted they'd fall into the 24m camp myself) just shows the incredibly good position that Sony seems to have maneuvered itself into or at least, that its executives believe to have done so. We'll see if they can come close to or possibly reach their lofty goals, but nobody should be thinking that they're not profit-focused as the poster I quoted seems to believe.
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I personally can't see it but we don't have ranges of profit margins that we are talking about. We already know that they forecasted a drop in profits due to the price promotions and that was with their forecasted currency and the fx rates imo haven't worked out that well for them. Its not too bad for sales in Europe, think its going to be 2% difference but sales for HW in Japan will be less profitable than they would have hoped for.
 
I went with 24-25M, but I could easily see it being closer to 23M. I think the potential of reaching 25M depends on what they do during Black Friday and the rest of the holiday season. Spider-Man is a good game to have this quarter if they want to make a big push for 25M.
 
Actual price hurts too much to reach those numbers. They have to start dropping the price in Black Friday at the latest to have a chance.
The bad thing is that it doesn't seem probable with the prices of the new model releasing in November.

20-21m would be my prediction if they don't shake the holidays.
 
We will see if Sony manage to imprest everyone like last FY but for now I am less and less confident in the 25M FY.

Spider-Man 2 doest not seams to be as great as I expected to move hardware.

However, PS5 Hardware is still selling well. Their market shares are increasing sharply.
 
No chance tbh. The slim version isn't what I was hoping to see, and I was expecting it to be the reason it could potentially reach 25m. Now that it's announced, it's really hard for me to see the 25m fy happening. In fact, it's pretty much another price increase in certain regions like Japan. Somehow some reports are saying it will reach the goal, but I'm not seeing it.
 
As of today, October 29th, I see it as sub 24 millions shipped.

This said, I think this thread would have made a bit more sense in a week time when we have the 6 months earnings from Sony.
 
Joseki said:
As of today, October 29th, I see it as sub 24 millions shipped.

This said, I think this thread would have made a bit more sense in a week time when we have the 6 months earnings from Sony.
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I would expect it to be active at that point too and you can change your prediction if the added data changes things
 
I don't have a specific figure in mind, but I'm gonna say it's not making it. I don't see a realistic path to 25m based off the info we have now
 
nah we can do pre guessing before earning and then adjust accordingly to the earnings that come out
 
Drblitzk said:
I think waiting less than to weeks for Sony's 6 months earnings is the wise call here to make a more informed decision lmao.
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I was going to ask if we know the results for the 2nd quarter but that's two weeks away so I'll wait. Is the 3.3M consoles sold during the first quarter accurate?
 
If the "slim" had any benefit for people already owning a "fat" PS5 it would be easy to reach the goal, but the new version is just boring.
 
peter42O said:
I was going to ask if we know the results for the 2nd quarter but that's two weeks away so I'll wait. Is the 3.3M consoles sold during the first quarter accurate?
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That is the number in the earnings report for Q1. It was also the number for Q2 of the previous FY.
 
The new pricing strategy makes me pause a bit. Normally slim models are followed by price cuts but this made the digital edition even more expensive. And it is obvious the natural demand for the PS5 has been met and most of the growth now is being fueled by price promotion. So are they going to bring that back in the holiday period? Hard to tell. They could be gearing up for more price promotions and the slims are cheaper to produce so they can offer promotions at better margins. But I struggle to see 25m at the current pace tbh.

I think they miss it.
 
I’ll wait until the next report but right now it seems really unlikely. The revision not bringing much to the table on the consumer side makes me question the impact it will have on sales that seem to have plateaued with pent up demand now being met. My guess 4.5m+10m+3.5m for the rest of the FY totalling up to 21.3m. Still great result for Sony.
 
I was wrong about hitting their FY23Q4 shipment target, but it turned out they stuffed the shit out of the retail channels. Surely, they won't be allowed to do so again.

Surely...
 
Undead Warrior said:
I was wrong about hitting their FY23Q4 shipment target, but it turned out they stuffed the shit out of the retail channels. Surely, they won't be allowed to do so again.

Surely...
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Based on their sellthrough they didn’t stuff the channels. That Q4 sellthrough left a bit over 2 million in the channel, which is right where a console should be.

Right now the issue is they can’t push the slim until they get rid of all the old version they have built up.
 
Sony would need to reach close to Switch peak results which was boosted by the pandemic for the rest of the FY them to achieve that and I see no realistic way that happens.

I fully expect Sony to have very good year in terms of hardware sales but 25M is a tall order, I dont think it will happen.
 
Josh5890 said:
Seems like they are going to try like hell to hit that 25m threshold.

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I guess that (along with Spidey bundle) seals the deal: If they don't achieve the 25 million they'll come VERY close. This is the most aggressive CoD bundle ever, with the game being virtually free with the console at release date.

Also, very smart from Sony to lock as much as they can of the CoD crowd on their ecosystem before their marketing deal expires. Very smart indeed.
 
While of course getting more install base (hehe) for your console is worth, they have been stupidly aggresive with their deals/bundles, at some point you gotta wonder about the profits and it's worth it just to hit an arbitrary number.

I guess they can due to the PS+ price hike, maybe
 
Having a pack-in game really isn't that aggressive, rather the norm historically.
449$ with a game or even 399$ (Black Friday?) would be aggressive.
 
Godzilla said:
While of course getting more install base (hehe) for your console is worth, they have been stupidly aggresive with their deals/bundles, at some point you gotta wonder about the profits and it's worth it just to hit an arbitrary number.

I guess they can due to the PS+ price hike, maybe
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It probably is worth it in the long term but yeah, going to be interesting to see what they get re profit margins.
 
i can say for a fact sony are shipping a metric butt ton of spiderman 2 ps5's. is that known to be 499 too? if not i suspect it's coming.
 
Godzilla said:
While of course getting more install base (hehe) for your console is worth, they have been stupidly aggresive with their deals/bundles, at some point you gotta wonder about the profits and it's worth it just to hit an arbitrary number.

I guess they can due to the PS+ price hike, maybe
Click to expand...
Pumping stock prices is apparently way more important than keeping your business sustainable. I expect a lot of chatter around record "revenue" numbers (inflated, of course) to distract any naysayers, regardless of whethee or not they hit 25M.
 
Butzke said:
Having a pack-in game really isn't that aggressive, rather the norm historically.
449$ with a game or even 399$ (Black Friday?) would be aggressive.
Click to expand...

I'm sorry, but when was the last time this has happened for a high profile game at launch?

Undead Warrior said:
Pumping stock prices is apparently way more important than keeping your business sustainable. I expect a lot of chatter around record "revenue" numbers (inflated, of course) to distract any naysayers, regardless of whethee or not they hit 25M.
Click to expand...

Eating costs on hardware to grow an userbasse is hardly a new tactic and pretty much the norm outside of Nintendo.
 
Undead Warrior said:
Pumping stock prices is apparently way more important than keeping your business sustainable. I expect a lot of chatter around record "revenue" numbers (inflated, of course) to distract any naysayers, regardless of whethee or not they hit 25M.
Click to expand...

None of this is true.

Stock prices can also depend on profits.
Playstation will still be profitable so sustainability is a not even a question.

Record revenue was already known at the beginning of the year lol
Hitting 25M will also be record breaking, especially a 12M holiday quarter.

Oh and taking marketshare and expanding output is more important at this stage than big margins.
 
enpleinjour said:
None of this is true.

Stock prices can also depend on profits.
Playstation will still be profitable so sustainability is a not even a question.

Record revenue was already known at the beginning of the year lol
Hitting 25M will also be record breaking, especially a 12M holiday quarter.

Oh and taking marketshare and expanding output is more important at this stage than big margins.
Click to expand...

Hardware is a relatively small split of their revenue, so I really don't understand this talk of sustainability. They're after that 30% out of every purchase made on Playstation and they're right to do so.
 
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tolkir said:
Last month, PS5 bundle with EA FC 24 was even cheaper than a standalone PS5 in Europe. Bad thing was it lasted only 2 weeks.
Click to expand...

That was a very limited deal, tho. The official price for that bundle was 620 euros or something on that ballpark.
 
Belthazar said:
I'm sorry, but when was the last time this has happened for a high profile game at launch?



Eating costs on hardware to grow an userbasse is hardly a new tactic and pretty much the norm outside of Nintendo.
Click to expand...
This is the first holiday season where the PS5 is fully in stock.
There was no reason to do it so far, now stock is plentiful so we return to normal procedure.
 
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