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Will Nintendo have a 20 million selling release this year?

Phantom Thief

Phantom Thief

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Every year since the launch of the Nintendo Switch, Nintendo has put out at least one 20 million seller:

  • 2017: The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild, Mario Kart 8 Deluxe, Super Mario Odyssey
  • 2018: Super Smash Bros. Ultimate
  • 2019: Pokémon Sword/Shield
  • 2020: Animal Crossing New Horizons
Now what's interesting is, while the Switch 2021 lineup from Nintendo is fairly impressive, I'm not quite sure any game exists published by Nintendo that will hit 20 million or above this year:

  • Metroid Dread, as great as it is, is not getting there
  • Mario Party Superstars will presumably be north of 10 million, but I don't see it doubling that (particularly when SMP exists already)
  • New Pokemon Snap isn't getting there
  • Pokemon BDSP are almost certainly not getting there, that would require a massive over performance on their part as remakes (still, they are among the likelier candidates to do so, if nothing else)
  • Mario Golf isn't getting there
  • Skyward Sword isn't getting there (though I'd be interested in seeing if it crosses 10 million, given the brand's increased profile)
  • Super Mario 3D World + Bowser's Fury will assuredly sell over 10 million, presumably cross 15 million, but 20 million seems ambitious for it (I would argue this is the likeliest candidate if nothing else)

So, are they due to not have one this year? Will something surprise us?
 
It's what Metroid Dread deserves.


But yeah I agree, it doesn't look like any one game will get there. Interesting.
 
Abzeronow said:
I don't see a 20 million seller for this year, but Arceus could be the 20 million seller for this FY.
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Right, and for calendar year 2022, I can see a fair few titles from them having a shot (Pokemon and Zelda being the biggest ones ofc, but I'd be interested in Splatoon 3's potential as well).
 
Looks you have two potential 15 million sellers. Not sure Superstars can get there with competition from Super and without getting bundled like Super was.
 
I agree the biggest potential seller is 3D World, and I’ m not quite sure it can leg it to 20m, though I wouldn’t completely rule it out either. It’s a fantastic game that finally gets access to a wide audience, but at this point in the Switch’s life there are already quite a lot of great Mario platformers to pick from.
 
We’ll see where Super Mario 3D World + Bowser’s Fury is, as of September 30th, in a couple more weeks. Hopefully it’s not too far away from 10 million at that point. Then it is up to the holidays, which is a time where Mario typically over succeeds.

Though it would be great to see it hit 20, doing it this year doesn’t seem the most likely. Lifetime with a potential Player’s Choice line? Good chance.

I’d sure like it to though!
 
I'm hesitant about Switch releasing a new game that can become a 20 million seller period. In the past it seems like the games that arrived first to the system would outsell their later sequels. Really even on 3DS we saw Pokémon X&Y outsell Sun & Moon, despite the latter getting an absolutely massive launch in part thanks to the Pokémon Go craze.

So in a sense I think Sword/Shield, BotW, and Odyssey will be the ceilings of their respective IP on Switch, and many of them aren't far above that 20m milestone as it is. I think the exceptions of a sequel outselling the first title on the platform would be games like Bayonetta 3 where it benefits from that "new game" interest that Bayonetta 2 didn't have, and the LTD set by Bayo 2 is low enough anyways that it doesn't seem like too difficult a hurdle to pass.

EDIT: Revisiting this post, I'm already way off base. lol

I do think 2022 has the potential for one, but 2021 releases I'm less certain about.
 
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I'm not seeing it this year. As someone else mentioned, for the fiscal year it is possible Arceus achieves that milestone. We will have to wait to see how the market responds to the new style of Pokemon.
 
I think the only game that *could* get there is Super Mario 3D World, and a lot of that hinges on it being the last 3D Mario entry released for Switch.
 
None of them will, BDSP will get the closest out of those and 3D World in second place, but both still far from 20m
 
While not a potential 20m seller imo, GTA Trilogy has a shot at being eventually the highest selling title among those listed.

I voted nothing of course
 
Kenka said:
While not a potential 20m seller imo, GTA Trilogy has a shot at being the highest selling title among those listed eventually.

I voted 0 of course
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Yeah, but that's not a Nintendo game any more than SMTV or MH Rise are. Yeah Nintendo appears to be handling the distribution of the physical version (in at least some territories), but it's not a first party title.

I do think sales of Trilogy overall will get to 20 million, yeah.
 
Well of course it’ll do that combined. It is launching on everything include my toaster oven.

Though I’m not sure III actually got to 20 million. Vice City probably eventually did through PC sales and what not.
 
Exclusives, no chance. Muliplat, probably.

Phantom Thief said:
Every mainline GTA release since 3 has sold 20 million or above, I don't see the Trilogy not doing it.
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Considering GTA VI isn't coming out anytime soon, the legs on the trilogy should easily carry it to 20 million in total sales.
 
I see a bunch of potential 10 million sellers but aside from an unexpected Mario Party boom, nada for that benchmark.
 
Unless I'm forgetting some other release, no, none of the ones you listed will reach 20m. Even the best sellers on that list will be closer to 10m than 20m
 
Mario 3D World would have to basically repeat Odyssey’s performance, which is no easy feat. Maybe it can do it, but it will be a while before we know.
 
A lot of them will pass 10 million, but I can't see any passing 20 million. Next contestants for that crown would likely be Pokemon Gen 9 and BoTW2.
 
Celine said:
The plumber will prove a lot of folks wrong.
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I certainly hope so. 3D World is by far my favorite 3D Mario title and I hope this title selling in such large quantities will show Nintendo that 3D Mario doesn't just have to be defined as open world adventure collectathons.
 
Well, I'm looking forward to see where SM3DW+BF is at when Nintendo's financials are out soon
 
Can't say I see a 20m from this year's titles to be quite honest. It's mostly remakes and re-releases, so that's fairly weak. Newer titles like Dread are never going to sell 20m.
 
I think 2022 already has much more potential for 20 million sellers, Botw 2 which I think it should likely hit, Arceus if it's good and provides the shakeup the franchise needed, and Splatoon 3 potentially, it would have to do much better than 2 did worldwide, though I think it will do better in japan than 2 at least. I have it pegged at around 13-15 million but I could see it achieving 20 million, though if it does it'll do it by crawling there on its last breaths.
 
None of them will do it. But it's still incredible that we are talking about possible 20m sellers. The Switch is a software monster...i think all of the four will do 10-15m. Alone that is absolutely crazy.
 
Yeah, there's no software that will reach 20 million this year. The only candidate would be Poké BD/SP, but that would need a massive overperformance, selling better than the original game(Which I think it's a feat no Pokémon Remake has done).
 
Gartooth said:
So in a sense I think Sword/Shield, BotW, and Odyssey will be the ceilings of their respective IP on Switch, and many of them aren't far above that 20m milestone as it is.
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But then what's the ceiling for Sword/Shield, BotW, and Odyssey?

Pokemon Sword/Shield:
FY1: 17.37M
FY2: 3.73M

Zelda BotW:
FY1: 2.76M
FY2: 5.72M
FY3: 4.29M
FY4: 4.64M
FY5: 4.87M

Super Mario Odyssey:
FY1: 10.41M
FY2: 4.03M
FY3: 2.97M
FY4: 3.42M

The current situation see many years of healthy software sales ahead (and hardware sales which mean new users that will buy software), no Nintendo Selects line yet, software sales that don't completely depend on finding physical games on stores' shelves due to Switch being the first Nintendo console with a strong digital usage.
 
Celine said:
But then what's the ceiling for Sword/Shield, BotW, and Odyssey?

Pokemon Sword/Shield:
FY1: 17.37M
FY2: 3.73M

Zelda BotW:
FY1: 2.76M
FY2: 5.72M
FY3: 4.29M
FY4: 4.64M
FY5: 4.87M

Super Mario Odyssey:
FY1: 10.41M
FY2: 4.03M
FY3: 2.97M
FY4: 3.42M

The current situation see many years of healthy software sales ahead (and hardware sales which mean new users that will buy software), no Nintendo Selects line yet, software sales that don't completely depend on finding physical games on stores' shelves due to Switch being the first Nintendo console with a strong digital usage.
Click to expand...

Yeap, Pokemon has legs, it’ll clear 25mil. SMO even if it’s not BotW should do close to 25mil, maybe 24mil. BotW I see is underestimated again. I expect that game to pull way ahead of 30mil.
 
Ghostsonplanets said:
Yeah, there's no software that will reach 20 million this year. The only candidate would be Poké BD/SP, but that would need a massive overperformance, selling better than the original game(Which I think it's a feat no Pokémon Remake has done).
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ORAS got close. Less than 2 million away if I recall.
 
SM3DW would need some fantastic holiday sales to pass 20m. It might just barely do it, but I wouldnt bet on it. Pokemon could do it lifetime, but probably not this year, and with Arceus Legends releasing so close after it, its legs might be cut off.
 
Celine said:
But then what's the ceiling for Sword/Shield, BotW, and Odyssey?

Pokemon Sword/Shield:
FY1: 17.37M
FY2: 3.73M

Zelda BotW:
FY1: 2.76M
FY2: 5.72M
FY3: 4.29M
FY4: 4.64M
FY5: 4.87M

Super Mario Odyssey:
FY1: 10.41M
FY2: 4.03M
FY3: 2.97M
FY4: 3.42M

The current situation see many years of healthy software sales ahead (and hardware sales which mean new users that will buy software), no Nintendo Selects line yet, software sales that don't completely depend on finding physical games on stores' shelves due to Switch being the first Nintendo console with a strong digital usage.
Click to expand...

Well after reading that my assumption was *way* off base. lol

Seeing how those titles performed each FY helped give way more insight.
 
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