Nikkei: There Will Be No New Nintendo Hardware This Fiscal Year, Which Ends In March 2023
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…. Huh. That would be a rather auspicious day.
if the device is desirable, they're supply-constrained, and think they have sufficient stock, it doesn't really matter when they release.
Your argument has merit, but saying the vast majority of Nintendo’s audience is under 12 was highly unnecessary. I don’t believe that to be true, and it didn’t need to be added for your argument to be correct.
Nintendo has a large children’s audience, but its the “whole family” audience they really go after. Games like Switch Sports are enjoyable for the whole family, not just the under 12 demographic. That’s a very important nuance that tends to be overlooked.
A lot of companies think the kids market and the whole family market are the same thing, they’re not, and that’s why they don’t capture the whole family market like Nintendo does.
I will say I agree with you about graphics not being that important for the whole family market as much as it is for the enthusiast crowd, no matter how some of them try to spin it lol. The whole family market tends to go for unique art styles that fit the game play. They also prioritize smoothness, responsiveness & the feel of a game.
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The reason I pulled under 12 is simply a Japanese thing. 12 is when elementary school student graduate and go to JHS. JHS in Japan is far more homework heavy and demanding than elementary school, so naturally a huge fall off occurs at this age. I guess when we look at the US Market, you could argue that is BS.. But pretty much everyone goes through the same hormonal changes at 12-13 and this is when children move slightly away from the things they loved as children, for better or for worse. So, you see it isnt really guess work at all.
The anomaly which occurred during the pandemic and centered around the release of Animal crossing and skewed the data towards more young adults playing Switch was great for Nintendo, and as you can see in the quote I pulled it even surprise the game directors at Nintendo, and hopefully it will mean they can carry over some of that audience to new hardware; however, software sales of more mature rated titles are still slightly lower than I am sure Nintendo would have liked. Not that they havent vastly improved over the 3ds and the wii.
This is why I believe Nintendo will continue to aim for the best quality product at the best price with the best battery life etc., over a huge hike in graphical power and a $500 price tag.
Yes, these are my opinions and they are based on research and reading not just pulling stuff outta my backside.
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All I am seeing is opinions not based on any figures. The fact is that if you disbelieve figures provided by Nintendo, then there are no "facts" to base anything on.
So yes it's all opinion pulled out from your gut. It can be true, but it can just as easily be false. You are not proving anything to anyone.
The fact that early Japanese 3P report that they see Switch as a good outlet for retro games (such as Hamster Archives) tells us alot about how the companies perceived the demographic. Not to mention many retro revivals are most successful on Switch and nowhere else.
This s even why Hamster keeps putting them out on Swirch, and this at least shows that there is actual factual holes in your theory to explain why Switch is mostly kid-based. Very young kids do not buy retro games older than they are.
Additionally, another proof is the demograoh of Monster Hunter Rise
Monster Hunter Rise Player Survey Results
Monster Hunter Rise Player Survey Results - Revealing Japanese players' favorite weapons, monsters, areas, and more.
www.frontlinejp.net
You can say it is more self selecting than the walk-in survey done by Famitsu, where a 1800 people sample is dismissed by a wise guy here we "not representative". Regardless, 5k is a pretty big number and it doesn't really prove your "gut opinion".
I will also throw in the survey for MHW, you can see the results for yoruself
『モンハン:アイスボーン』「ラージャン」に挑む新米ハンターに贈る！ 先輩ハンターのアドバイスが多数到着─意気込みなどもお届け【アンケート】 (2019年10月9日) - エキサイトニュース(2/11)
『モンスターハンター:アイスボーン』に、金獅子“ラージャン”が訪れようとしています。強敵の実装に先駆け、過去作で戦った先輩ハンターたちから寄せられた貴重なアドバイスを、今回たっぷりと紹介させていただき...(2/11)
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Based on a survey made by NPD for ESA, the average age of a game player in US is 33 years old.
Nintendo has traditionally targeted "everyone" but that includes both children and adults.
Mario Kart 8 selling over 45 million on Switch doesn't prove that "vast majority of the audience is under 12" because it's an all-age game.
Switch's USP is to maximize playing time.
Guess who lacks time to play videogames due to family/work duties...
Nintendo has traditionally targeted "everyone" but that includes both children and adults.
Mario Kart 8 selling over 45 million on Switch doesn't prove that "vast majority of the audience is under 12" because it's an all-age game.
Switch's USP is to maximize playing time.
Guess who lacks time to play videogames due to family/work duties...
Based on a survey made by NPD for ESA, the average age of a game player in US is 33 years old.
Nintendo has traditionally targeted "everyone" but that includes both children and adults.
Mario Kart 8 selling over 45 million on Switch doesn't prove that "vast majority of the audience is under 12" because it's an all-age game.
Switch's USP is to maximize playing time.
Guess who lacks time to play videogames due to family/work duties...
I find it very surprising that "under 18" isn't the largest group. Back when I was a kid, say, 12yo, I'm sure most gamers were my age. It almost seems like there's a specific group of people aged 18+ that values games most and the younger generation has lost interest in comparison. Ofc, the younger than 18-group might grow into a larger 18+ group, because of growing up with parents that play video games.
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Since this is based on NA data, I can say from looking around at the people in my "elder millennial" age bracket with kids that parents don't buy their kids video games like ours did, or at least not in the volume they did with us. Console gaming is now something many kids don't get to do until they have independent income from summer jobs or when they go to uni and the parents aren't paying attention anymore, apparently. For those kids, IAP-restricted mobile gaming is what they're given, because it's "free" so long as they disable IAP on the device they're using. If they're allowed to at all, because of parental panic over "screen time".
This obviously is not a universal trend, as there are parents who play console games with their kids or buy them such devices regardless, but no matter how desirable game consoles might be among the 18-and-under set, some parents aren't giving them any, which makes the 18+ crowd over-represented when these kids are finally able to own one for themselves.
At this point you're not even willing to admit that your opinions are guesses. You keep saying its based on "research“ but have provided nothing but opinions. Can you share the links for this research you've done?
This is the only actual data you've cited (actually I posted it), apparently Nintendo being suprised by the age demographics means they expected the game to be played by 12yo's? How is this data and not just guess work on your part?
Lmao...”research"!
Not to be rude but I did check the facts and found the comments from Nintendo directors and put a link to the pdf where the original data everyone is worshiping actually came from.. rather than a second hand retweet without the small print.
My point was never that young adults dont play Nintendo. My point was... And I am coming from a Japanese point of view based on Japanese sales and Japanese life. Most Nintendo switch owners are familes with young children.
That is the demographic that I see. Teens in Japan play smartphones.
Adults work.
almost 25% of the worlds Nintendo Switches are in Japan.
Yes, in America maybe the trend is different.
I only came into this conversation because I was sick of reading the "Power" argument and Nintendo has to put out a new Switch.. All this mainly comes from American based people who are probably desperate for a more powerful Switch. It just does not resonate from what I see here in Japan.
I meant they move to more adult games.. Not family friendly media. Sorry if that needed clarifying.
I read the article and posted the original PDF. They expected the game to be played by a much younger demographic and suspected the numbers were skewed by the pandemic..Have you still not read it?
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I don't doubt what you see but this is totally anecdotal. One of my biggest pet peeves (this is a general statement not mearly directed at you) is people who preface an opinion with "I live in x", while this might give you more insight than someone who doesn't live there, the market is far too big for a single (or even many) anecdote(s) to truly matter.
It's 48 pages, can you point me to the relevant section? Regardless, Nintendo being wrong about the demographics for a single game hardly counts as data for your original point (vast majority of the audience is under 12). Again, can you point any data or research which suggest this?
Also:
Can you answer this question?
US is roughly 40% of Switch userbase fwiw. It's by far Nintendo's largest market and also the largest console market in general.
And honestly, even if the Switch audience skews younger or more family oriented in Japan, sales of multiplatform games in more "adult" categories (VN, retro, open world, etc) tend to show Switch is still the largest adult audience anyway.
This also is mearly an anecdote on your part. Do you have any data that under 12yo's are playing/consuming Nintendo games (in significant #'s) to begin with? Or that they aren't playing smart phone games/fortnite/cod ect. in bigger #'s than Nintendo games?
It you want to use 12 as the age then that is fine, you just need to change your statement to "the vast vast majority of Switchs' audience is over 12".
In regards to Nintendo not designing a revision for enthusiasts, how many kids and families do you think care about an OLED screen, improved speakers and a LAN port?
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In the end neither Nintendo or Nikkei have said anything about new hardware coming or not coming this year 
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Nintendo themselves have this event this weekend. If you can read it you will see they have 80% of the trial time dedicated to under 12s. I guess they dont know their market either.
Of course, Nintendo wants to sell to the broader market and has products dedicated to the enthusiasts market like the OLED, but it is totally disingenuous of the posters who are calling me out to ignore the marketing, history, and sales of software just to defend their opinion that Nintendo is not for kids.
Nintendo is for everyone but they, themselves, aim at selling to children as the primary market and consider under 12s to be their biggest audience. Do you all believe Nintendo doesn't check its data?
They are involved in making a kids movie, they have a theme park deal with attractions aimed at a younger audience. The last two days I have been called out by a number of posters acting like one feedback graph posted in the middle of worldwide pandemic changes who Nintendo should be focusing their products on is just insane.
Especially when I am the only person who bothered to read the report and see the small print that the data was based on one hour of play in a year. A year which was 2020 -2021.. I have no idea why many young adults may buy a switch and play it in that year, do you?
As for VNs, retro games and open world games. It isnt like I ever said they dont have any footprint in the adult market.. I said their main market. I even pointed out that Nintendo cant get a first party game aimed at over 15s to sell over 5 million, despite this being a pretty standard achievement for Playstation for example.
And I am an adult fan of Nintendo. I own over 200 switch games. I have a good amount of disposable income to buy powerful gaming PCs and I own switches for my whole family. My point was always, Nintendo's main market is a younger demographic which does not care about a NEW switch coming out with more power right now!
And the reason a child may enter their age as an adult is simply to play games like fortnite. A game that has a rating of over 12. Did I really need to explain that to an enthusiasts forum?
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It doesn’t have to be a one or the other type situation at all. Nintendo really does have a very huge kids market, but like I said before, saying the vast majority of their fanbase is under 12 is laying it on thick, and it’s not true.
I’ve seen plenty of kids, parents, grand parents and single adults play Switch. If you study their market you would know they dedicate most of their advertising to the whole family, not kids. Something parents/grandparents can actually enjoy playing with the kids, instead of feeling obligated to play with them. That’s a major difference.
Reducing the whole family market to just a kids market is the reason why Nintendo runs circles around its competitors when it comes to 1st party software sales and price retention lol.
I’ve seen plenty of kids, parents, grand parents and single adults play Switch. If you study their market you would know they dedicate most of their advertising to the whole family, not kids. Something parents/grandparents can actually enjoy playing with the kids, instead of feeling obligated to play with them. That’s a major difference.
Reducing the whole family market to just a kids market is the reason why Nintendo runs circles around its competitors when it comes to 1st party software sales and price retention lol.
Warning: Arguing in apparent bad faith over a series of posts, please be mindful to address arguments less selectively moving forward.
I never said they dont sell to other age groups. But it is clear from all their marketing, their sales of software, their own game directors feedback and their use of IP at theme parks and in upcoming movies that Nintendo does view its main audience as under 12.
This is why the recent Momotaro was so successful. Because they marketed the game to the whole family.
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That is a Konami game and the main audience at first were more parents/adults nostalgic about the games which of course means they end up also playing with their kids. This has always been a strength of Nintendo IPs of creating long term fans and these games being games suited also for kids means that the fathers play with their kids and make them also long term fans.
Literally you can count the actual kid focused Switch software Nintendo's put out on two hands. And it hasn't even done particularly well (Labo, DCSHG, BBA, etc). What you seem to continue missing, willfully at this point given how it's been repeatedly laid out for you, is there's a key difference with "kid focused" and "everyone focused". Nintendo will do whatever they need to in order to get in at least that E-10 category even and cast the widest net for their 10m+ sellers (Zelda, Smash, etc) but that doesn't mean the bulk of their audience is children. The Pokémon/COD target/actual audience meme only works because there's a kernel of truth to it.Nintendo Live 2022 | 任天堂
「Nintendo Live 2022」は音楽ライブ・ステージイベント・ゲーム体験・ゲーム大会などをお楽しみいただける任天堂主催のイベントです。www.nintendo.co.jp
Nintendo themselves have this event this weekend. If you can read it you will see they have 80% of the trial time dedicated to under 12s. I guess they dont know their market either.
Of course, Nintendo wants to sell to the broader market and has products dedicated to the enthusiasts market like the OLED, but it is totally disingenuous of the posters who are calling me out to ignore the marketing, history, and sales of software just to defend their opinion that Nintendo is not for kids.
Nintendo is for everyone but they, themselves, aim at selling to children as the primary market and consider under 12s to be their biggest audience. Do you all believe Nintendo doesn't check its data?
They are involved in making a kids movie, they have a theme park deal with attractions aimed at a younger audience. The last two days I have been called out by a number of posters acting like one feedback graph posted in the middle of worldwide pandemic changes who Nintendo should be focusing their products on is just insane.
Especially when I am the only person who bothered to read the report and see the small print that the data was based on one hour of play in a year. A year which was 2020 -2021.. I have no idea why many young adults may buy a switch and play it in that year, do you?
As for VNs, retro games and open world games. It isnt like I ever said they dont have any footprint in the adult market.. I said their main market. I even pointed out that Nintendo cant get a first party game aimed at over 15s to sell over 5 million, despite this being a pretty standard achievement for Playstation for example.
And I am an adult fan of Nintendo. I own over 200 switch games. I have a good amount of disposable income to buy powerful gaming PCs and I own switches for my whole family. My point was always, Nintendo's main market is a younger demographic which does not care about a NEW switch coming out with more power right now!
And the reason a child may enter their age as an adult is simply to play games like fortnite. A game that has a rating of over 12. Did I really need to explain that to an enthusiasts forum?
Gotchas about Nintendo directors being surprised about audience makeup for one game or how much presentation time or space for one game is dedicated aren't worth much. They certainly don't support the notion that the bulk of Nintendo's audience isn't what the demographic IR reports indicate but is in fact kids, a theory you've been wholly unable to support in any reasonable way. It's tiring at this point.
All of the things you named are geared towards the whole family market, not just kids lol. That’s a major nuance that continues to baffle some it seems. That’s why Nintendo is excelling, and why the “whole family” market continues to pay top dollar for Nintendo’s 1st party games. Mario Kart can be enjoyed by the whole family.
A lot of kids know when their parents are doing something with them because they genuinely enjoy it vs feeling obligated to enjoy it & vice versa.
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Exactly, it’s a subtle but overt marketing ploy Nintendo has mastered. The whole family market has its own set of rules and expectations that Nintendo has studied and has helped form.
a live event is not a representation of the broader playing public
With nintendo playing to the family, does that mean Bayonetta is a family IP?
We're never going to see a Switch Pro, are we? I wish Nintendo would give me a reason to buy a new Switch. I have the OG model and the back cover is falling off and I've gone through two pairs of joycons (shockingly I have not gotten drift on my current sticks that are at least 2 years old). The OLED isn't enough of an upgrade for me, so at this point I guess I'm just holding out until 2024 when they release the Switch 2 (maybe).
My bet at this point is Switch 2 will arrive in March of 2024. The March timeframe worked so well with the Switch and it allows Nintendo to ramp up for the holiday season. I don't know why historically consoles have released near the end of the year when they are going to sell every unit they can make, regardless of the release date. It seems smarter to release it in a slower time period like March and continue that momentum through the year into the holiday season. But what do I know?
My bet at this point is Switch 2 will arrive in March of 2024. The March timeframe worked so well with the Switch and it allows Nintendo to ramp up for the holiday season. I don't know why historically consoles have released near the end of the year when they are going to sell every unit they can make, regardless of the release date. It seems smarter to release it in a slower time period like March and continue that momentum through the year into the holiday season. But what do I know?
This is some serious mental gymnastics. Do you think all kids under 12 dont play Mariokart, splatoon, Mario, smash .. I guess my kids and all their friends are freaks...
I think there are some serious issues with people taking offence to me stating that it appears to me based on everything Nintendo does that they are focused mostly on a younger audience. I never said they dont cast a wider net and have games for a broader market...
But everyone ignoring everything Nintendo does is insanity. You all need to take a hard look at what you are spewing.
I actually read IR report and didnt just look at the pretty graph.. It says clearly that the data is taken from 1 hour of play from 2020 to 2021. A year which as everyone knows many people were locked in their house and spent money on any tech they could. We are going in circles. You all want to deny that the company that has a cute cartoon character as its mascot is not a company aimed at children.. I am done here.. this is ridiculous.
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2023 is still the expected date. I'm betting on a april/may
Are you incapable of understanding other people? People keep telling you those games, especially stuff like Mario Kart and Mario in general, are aimed at everyone aka they are owned by tons of adults.
Disney has a cute cartoon character as it's mascot as well. And yet the vast majority of Disney's audience is not under 12. It's all ages, just like Nintendo .
You are right that lots people under 12 play Mario Kart, Smash and Animal Crossing. But so do lots of people of many ages
That's the point people are trying to make to you. That, to Nintendo, the 12-20, 20-30 and 30-40 age groups are just as important as the under 12s. We can't say any single age group is the "main" one.
You seem to have a hard time to understand that games sell to a large age range
LOL reaching for straws
And we are done. The fact that adults enjoy disney's movies aimed at children is exactly the same as Nintendo. the primary audience is still children just like Disney.
I'll be honest wit ya, I don't see those specific references, but I am sure it will be a large contingent of kodomos there.
On a general marketing note from a layman, Nintendo stating that about their own event is kinda weird reductive language for no discernible gain? Even if internally you predict the majority of event-goers to be in a certain age range, it doesn't behoove your bottom line to actively push away other groups. Ideally, I'd want as many eyeballs and attention cells on my products.
All that said, if i were in Tokyo around the time, I would totally go. Bet it will be a blast, positive vibes everywhere. Maybe a Breath of the Wild 2 playable demo or three (assuming I could fight thru the sea of screaming children to get to the demo kiosk ofc!
)I think people really took offence to my point of Nintendo still being generally focused around a younger market. I also think a lot of people misunderstand what under 12s are like. I have two, a 10 year old and an 8 year old. My daughter is 8 and she is one of the girls who kills in splatoon 2 and draws a heart around the person. I know a lot of of elementary kids as you can imagine.. Having two of my own. And the vast majority have at least one switch in their house. My point coming into this thread was to express that I dont think Nintendo is panicking about getting hardware to the enthusiast market as that market isnt their main target demographic. Some people seem to misread "Not their main" as that I dont believe adults play Nintendo games.. This despite me being an adult Nintendo gamer with over 200 switch titles of my own..I'll be honest wit ya, I don't see those specific references, but I am sure it will be a large contingent of kodomos there.
On a general marketing note from a layman, Nintendo stating that about their own event is kinda weird reductive language for no discernible gain? Even if internally you predict the majority of event-goers to be in a certain age range, it doesn't behoove your bottom line to actively push away other groups. Ideally, I'd want as many eyeballs and attention cells on my products.
All that said, if i were in Tokyo around the time, I would totally go. Bet it will be a blast, positive vibes everywhere. Maybe a Breath of the Wild 2 playable demo or three (assuming I could fight thru the sea of screaming children to get to the demo kiosk ofc!
My point was always I know I am not the target audience for the majority of Nintendo's games. I still enjoy them.. but my son and daughter are far more invested and most of the marketing Nintendo does in Japan is aimed squarely at them.
And living in Kansai I am also annoyed I cant add to the Kodomo problem and attend the event in Tokyo this weekend with my 2 under 12s. a lot of the advertising states 小学生 meaning elementary school only 12s and under.
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When it comes down to it I think folks are mostly arguing over semantics for no real gain.
Probably because your post served as the most entertainment after Nikkei (or Mochizuki's tweet, tbf) let everyone down w/ what looks like a fat ol' nuthin' burger.
You local context is a very interesting anecdotal data point, and I don't doubt it. At the end of the day, Nintendo in all regions advertising to family demo is their bread and butter. And there is nothing better than picturing taking your kids someplace to have a great time after some dark recent days/months/years.
Wait is there *another* event this weekend?? Or do you mean Nintendo Live which is in October?
Probably because your post served as the most entertainment after Nikkei (or Mochizuki's tweet, tbf) let everyone down w/ what looks like a fat ol' nuthin' burger.
You local context is a very interesting anecdotal data point, and I don't doubt it. At the end of the day, Nintendo in all regions advertising to family demo is their bread and butter. And there is nothing better than picturing taking your kids someplace to have a great time after some dark recent days/months/years.
Wait is there *another* event this weekend?? Or do you mean Nintendo Live which is in October?
Yes, the Splatoon focused live is this weekend in Tokyo.
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Stuff your strawman, no one's saying 12 year olds don't play Nintendo games. This isn't a binary, think bigger.
If you can't properly source an argument (like you've utterly failed to here, repeatedly) my suggestion is it's probably not the hill worth dying on you might think it is.
Because they’re not, they’re selling to all ages, which is backed up by data, from multiple sources.
The target audience is everyone, not just children.
Oh see this I can agree with. Switch is still doing fine and Nintendo can take their time.
Nintendo doesn't target children, it seems that way because the content has to be appealing to children, teens, and adults. I understand it looks that way but it is unfair to assume that's their target when they clearly show ads with children and their parents playing together. You are pretty much saying they target the children and parents but only get the children without an once of proof that the parents aren't also playing. Ring Fit adventure would have flopped on any other system. Please don't tell me you believe children are interested in their fitness? That's why they target families, because nearly everyone is part of a family. That could lead to more software being sold. In a family of 4, dad could play Fifa, son could play Smash Bros, daughter could play Animal Crossing, mom could play Ring Fit adventure, and they all play Mario Kart. Everyone is part of a family even hard-core gamers. They target families not children, children are just easier to get.
Looking at popular Switch commercials with adult celebrities playing Ringfit Adventure (and other games) with their parents and/or partners shows you the whole family market I keep talking about. That’s not the under 12 demo, that makes up the “vast majority” of the Switch’s user base they’re marketing to when you watch those commercials.
The reason why those commercials are so popular is because a very large part of Switch’s user base is being reached. The under 12 demo being the vast majority would mean the over 12 demo is quite small in comparison, and that doesn’t add up with the type of marketing Nintendo produces for the Switch.
It would also mean Nintendo is wasting a lot of money consistently advertising to a very small part of the Switch’s demographic. Not happening lol.
The reason why those commercials are so popular is because a very large part of Switch’s user base is being reached. The under 12 demo being the vast majority would mean the over 12 demo is quite small in comparison, and that doesn’t add up with the type of marketing Nintendo produces for the Switch.
It would also mean Nintendo is wasting a lot of money consistently advertising to a very small part of the Switch’s demographic. Not happening lol.
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The only truth is sales data and release pattern. From what we have seen and how many huge revival of old IP as well as spiritual successor toward genre that previously ignored during previous generation, it shows that Switch demographic is far from being majority being 12 years old kids.
Bomberman
Momotaro
Act Raiser
Getsu Fumaden
Brigandine
Ghost'n Goblin
Moon
Langrisser
House of the Dead Remastered
Panzer Dragoon
Pocky and Rocky
Monster Rancher 1+2 Remastered
Mr Driller
Synaptic Drive
Hamster retro catalogue release
Insane amount of Shmup games
Numerous old Icon Platformer revived(Klonoa, Pacman, Kao,Spongebob,etc)
and many more.
This shows that the audience of Switch is very diverse and certainly had huge amount of old lapsed nostalgia gamers who returned to switch and enjoy their childhood games but now on more modern twist.
Bomberman
Momotaro
Act Raiser
Getsu Fumaden
Brigandine
Ghost'n Goblin
Moon
Langrisser
House of the Dead Remastered
Panzer Dragoon
Pocky and Rocky
Monster Rancher 1+2 Remastered
Mr Driller
Synaptic Drive
Hamster retro catalogue release
Insane amount of Shmup games
Numerous old Icon Platformer revived(Klonoa, Pacman, Kao,Spongebob,etc)
and many more.
This shows that the audience of Switch is very diverse and certainly had huge amount of old lapsed nostalgia gamers who returned to switch and enjoy their childhood games but now on more modern twist.
And yet 50% of Disney+ subscribers are adults without kids. Surely that is large enough to be considered a primary audience.
Just because something can be enjoyed by children, doesn't mean it is aimed at children.
So, fully engaged, are you unwilling (or unable) to answer this question? Can anyone else? Keeping in mind his argument is that the audience is made up of mostly under 12yo's who're playing games aimed at children/families. Remember, we're talking children who only become interested in "adult" games after their "hormones change", this is what fully engaged has said over a series of post in this thread. That is, the types of kids who make up the vast majority of SW userbase have little interest in "adult" content. Why then lie about their age?
I dont think it is controversial that children and families are a large part of Nintendo's target audience. I think it is just strange that we have lots of demographics info (from before the pandemic too, from NPD etc) and we know a notable amount of Switch owners are young adults into middle age people. You're super adamant that kids under 12 are the target. Just seems not in line with everything we've seen from the last 6 years. You're in Japan so certainly there will be some cultural difference. That said I dunno, I feel like if you want your position to understood, at some point you need to provide actual data, not just look for reasons to discard presented information.
In regards to software sales of for 15+ rated games not selling 10m units, I guesd the question is, have any of the games on Switch that are in that age bracket sold 10m units on other platforms (and aren't super old ports)? I guess I just dont see what would be released that ever had the ability to sell 10m units. Outside of Minecraft and eventually MHR, no third party games on Switch have crossed 10m units. Nintendo has a handful of series that go over 10m. So just seems arbitrary.
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I do not think we are going to get a Switch 2 next year. I do think there is a good chance of a Switch revision next year though. The biggest reason for this is that for the past 2 fiscal years Nintendo has made profits like no gaming company/division has ever seen before. That is not something that should be cast aside easily. As long as they are making profits that are at least as good as 50% of their peak year, then I think they are going to want to keep Switch as their main console.
The reality of the gaming business is that every new console brings the risk of a very different set of profits for several years. This is the reason why Nintendo was eager to shorten the life of the Gamecube and Wii U. Now that they are making unprecedented profits, they are going to want to prolong the Switch's life for as long as they can. That is actually the most important factor in determining how long a system's life is going to be. Money talks. Everything else walks. New hardware plans can be postponed or modified. Software release schedules are harder to change, but even there ports, smaller games, and third party moneyhats can beef up a software schedule. The main question is "are profits going to stay high"? If profits look like they are staying high, then everything else can be modified.
Right now I think the most likely scenario is a hardware revision in 2023 and Switch 2 in 2025.
The reality of the gaming business is that every new console brings the risk of a very different set of profits for several years. This is the reason why Nintendo was eager to shorten the life of the Gamecube and Wii U. Now that they are making unprecedented profits, they are going to want to prolong the Switch's life for as long as they can. That is actually the most important factor in determining how long a system's life is going to be. Money talks. Everything else walks. New hardware plans can be postponed or modified. Software release schedules are harder to change, but even there ports, smaller games, and third party moneyhats can beef up a software schedule. The main question is "are profits going to stay high"? If profits look like they are staying high, then everything else can be modified.
Right now I think the most likely scenario is a hardware revision in 2023 and Switch 2 in 2025.