Nikkei: There Will Be No New Nintendo Hardware This Fiscal Year, Which Ends In March 2023

[Welfare]

任天堂4～6月、純利益増も営業益15%減　Switch減速 - 日本経済新聞

任天堂が3日発表した2022年4～6月期の連結決算は営業利益が前年同期比15%減の1016億円だった。半導体不足の長期化でゲーム機の生産に制約がかかる中、新型コロナウイルス下の「巣ごもり」需要は一服しつつある。インフレで娯楽への支出が落ち込む可能性もあり、好調だったゲーム市場が踊り場を迎える懸念が出てきた。売上高は5%減の3074億円、純利益は28%増の1189億円だった。同社は欧米など海外で

www.nikkei.com

The earliest we see new hardware is April 2023 and given how rare it is for new models to launch in April - June, the real earliest for a new Switch revision is August/September, and Switch 2 November.

 

[My Tulpa]

Nikkei was the one to whom Nintendo vehemently denied there would be any new 3ds models…and then announced them a couple weeks later, right?

 

[uncleoptimus]

Yea I think this is inline with what the majority of folks who follow these developments believe.

Component sourcing challenges at the crux of all this?
Would Nintendo delay Breath of the Wild 2 again to more closely track updated hardware release?
If you believe the story about how many publishers are already developing games for the new hardware spec, how frustrated must they be?

 

[Oregano]

Yea I think this is inline with what the majority of folks who follow these developments believe.

Component sourcing challenges at the crux of all this?
Would Nintendo delay Breath of the Wild 2 again to more closely track updated hardware release?
If you believe the story about how many publishers are already developing games for the new hardware spec, how frustrated must they be?

They'll only be frustrated if they had specific products planned for a specific timeframe that won't be viable any more if that specific timeframe moves. If not they'll probably be pretty understanding considering how many timelines must have shifted for everyone over the last few years.

That or they don't care because they weren't making big upfront investments anyway.

 

[unkindlynice]

Not surprising. If they did we should have been hearing production rumours considering supply issues. Thats all this will come down to - supply and its very difficult to speculate on that.

 

[My Tulpa]

Imo, the content of the article doesn’t exactly match the headline in the Tweet.

 

[Joseki]

.

 

[cw_sasuke]

Quite happy about this news. Makes planning future purchases much easier.

So Fall 23 for Switch ? Or whenever BotW2 is ready.

 

[Hartmann]

Can we get a proper, not machine translated, version of this behind-the-paywall article before making any real comment either way?

The original text is as follows. I think Nikkei has no basis for this.
---
任天堂の古川社長も「思った量を製造できても全て売れるのかと言われれば楽観視はしていない」と語る。今期は目玉となる最新機種の発表もない。その中で販売計画を達成するには残された9カ月間で1800万台近くを売る必要がありハードルは高い。成長市場に黄信号がともりつつある。
---

 

[Chris1964]

The original text is as follows. I think Nikkei has no basis for this.
---
任天堂の古川社長も「思った量を製造できても全て売れるのかと言われれば楽観視はしていない」と語る。今期は目玉となる最新機種の発表もない。その中で販売計画を達成するには残された9カ月間で1800万台近くを売る必要がありハードルは高い。成長市場に黄信号がともりつつある。
---

If Nikkei didn't misinterpret Nintendo CEO words again, speaking for uncertainty of meeting hardware targets even if production goes well is red flag for new models this FY.

He clearly hinted at possibility of lowering hardware forecast to below 21m.

 

[Hartmann]

If Nikkei didn't misinterpret Nintendo CEO words again, speaking for uncertainty of meeting hardware targets even if production goes well is red flag for new models this FY.

He basically hinted at possibility of lowering hardware forecast to below 21m.

I think it will be very hard to achieve 21 million units this fiscal year with or without the new model.

 

[Chris1964]

If new system was scheduled for this year, with the software schedule of Switch, the specs it's speculated to have and Nintendo doing apparently everything to have Breath of the Wild 2 ready for its release window I don't see how will plentiful supply forecast wouldn't be met.

 

[Joseki]

.

 

[Oregano]

I don't understand the part about production meeting expectations but sales not meeting expectations.

Shipment issues? Lower demand than expected?



I don't think anyone expected BotW 2 to release this FY after the generic "spring '23", especially considering there are only 2 fridays in "spring '23" that are also part of the current FY: March 24 and March 31.

With production behind schedule recently they have less stock ready for the holidays which means a time crunch between production and logistics to meet demand later in the year. In the IR stuff they already alluded to it, likely they will need to use air freight to meet demand.

 

[Chris1964]

I don't think anyone expected BotW 2 to release this FY after the generic "spring '23", especially considering there are only 2 fridays in "spring '23" that are also part of the current FY: March 24 and March 31.

Possibility of Zelda missing March if a new console was launching this FY must be less than 1%.

 

[Joseki]

.

 

[Oregano]

Yeah that's what I'm saying.
If BotW 2 was March '23 there was going to be new hardware alongside it. Since the chances of Zelda making the FY were slim given the "spring '23" release window, chances of new hardware this FY were slim too.

At the same time, a FY Q1 launch window is unusual for massive titles like BotW 2 and/or new hardware. I don't think we ever got a big new release that quarter on Switch.

Switch Sports. =P

 

[AruanaRiva]

I don't understand the part about production meeting expectations but sales not meeting expectations.

Shipment issues? Lower demand than expected?



I don't think anyone expected BotW 2 to release this FY after the generic "spring '23", especially considering there are only 2 fridays in "spring '23" that are also part of the current FY: March 24 and March 31.

They are probably taking a safer route there. The recession and demand probably going to have steeper drop if economy is not getting better anytime soon. So they are preparing themselves if that happen, they will have revise the target to avoid over reaction by shareholder once more.

 

[SoonyXboneUhh]

Thant's okay, as long as there is new hardware in FY2024, that ends in March 2024.
Really don't want to wait for holidays 2024 for a Switch successor.

 

[My Tulpa]

The original text is as follows. I think Nikkei has no basis for this.
---
任天堂の古川社長も「思った量を製造できても全て売れるのかと言われれば楽観視はしていない」と語る。今期は目玉となる最新機種の発表もない。その中で販売計画を達成するには残された9カ月間で1800万台近くを売る必要がありハードルは高い。成長市場に黄信号がともりつつある。
---

If Nikkei didn't misinterpret Nintendo CEO words again, speaking for uncertainty of meeting hardware targets even if production goes well is red flag for new models this FY.

He clearly hinted at possibility of lowering hardware forecast to below 21m.

Right, so this is mostly just speculation based on very little.

With the history of Nintendo admonishing Nikkei for past hardware speculation that Nintendo said is erroneous, I knew the idea that Nintendo would reach out to Nikkei to announce hardware news/plans was ridiculous.

 

[Notsowise]

I still believe it’s gonna be Christmas of 2023. After that, it’s Nintendo been Nintendo. They will risk losing gamers retention.

2023 is supposed to be an amazing year for ps5/xbox series, which will start to hurt switch businness. If they wait until 2024, sales may fall of a cliff like Wii.

 

[My Tulpa]

I still believe it’s gonna be Christmas of 2023. After that, it’s Nintendo been Nintendo. They will risk losing gamers retention.

2023 is supposed to be an amazing year for ps5/xbox series, which will start to hurt switch businness. If they wait until 2024, sales may fall of a cliff like Wii.

Ps5/series SX will have as much affect on Switch sales and success as the ps4/One did.

Which means, absolutely no effect.

And do I read you correctly? You are worried that the Switch might start really declining in sales in its 8th year on the market?

LOL

 

[MegaBulborb]

Makes total sense. Between the chip shortage, strong hardware and software sales, and a solid lineup of games, they have little reason to be pushing to get new hardware out the door.

I still think Spring 2025 is when we’ll get “Switch 2”. They’ll ride this Switch ship as long as they can before jumping to the next thing.

 

[EnergyDrink]

I mean I read many sensational tweets about and from Nikkei that were untrue in the end. Sometimes pure speculation sometimes speculation based on data or "insiders". But in the end they don't seem to have better results than the usual "insiders".

 

[Blue Monty]

Dev kits have been in the wild since late 2020, unless you think Nintendo is okay with dev kits of unreleased hardware being out for 4 years predicting 2024+ makes little sense. Only way that can happen if it was scheduled for H2 2023 CY and for whatever reason it gets delayed to Q1 24 CU.

 

[War Inquisitor]

if it does come out in H1 2023, I'm betting on may or early june at most. Otherwise it will release in october.

I still believe it’s gonna be Christmas of 2023. After that, it’s Nintendo been Nintendo. They will risk losing gamers retention.

2023 is supposed to be an amazing year for ps5/xbox series, which will start to hurt switch businness. If they wait until 2024, sales may fall of a cliff like Wii.

Will it? The same thing was said before Ps5/XSX were launched and yet it didn't do much
Also 2023 is a strong year for switch too. BOTW2, Fire Emblem next, likely a new Mario + who knows what else. they will be fine for another year.

 

[Daremo]

I'm still on the boat for this year, even if it goes straight to the Niagara Falls.

Waiting for a real confirmation of "nothing this year" to give up.

 

[asperatology]

Technically, the Splatoon 3-themed OLED model is the newest hardware from Nintendo for this year.

 

[Old sorta fan]

Makes sense to me, considering they are having a hard time shipping enough Switches/Switch OLED units to meet retail demand worldwide. I wonder how the first party software for the Switch 2 is coming along. We'll never know but it's nice to wonder.

Keep your eyes peeled for software announcements into next fiscal year. That'll provide clues about if there will be new hardware next fiscal year or not. (I hope not as I don't want to buy new hardware and am still playing Switch games like Quake and have a few pre-ordered on Limited Run Games).

 

[Pooroomoo]

People who expect Switch to crater at some point are wrong imo, as are people that think PS5 availability will affect Switch sales in any significant way.

But imo people who think Nintendo can just cruise by and launch the next version whenever they want are also wrong. Switch is imo in risk of losing significant mindshare with the "hardcore" crowd the more time passes, and as I see it this crowd is very important for the success of the next Switch iteration, given its expected nature.

 

[awng782]

To me, a 2022 launch for new Switch hardware was always laughable and even an early 2023 launch was pushing it, though possible.

If this is true, we can also forget about this new hardware being a Pro revision as I don't see any situation in which Nintendo launches a Pro revision 6+ years into the lifecycle of the platform.

 

[SoonyXboneUhh]

Ps5/series SX will have as much affect on Switch sales and success as the ps4/One did.

Which means, absolutely no effect.

And do I read you correctly? You are worried that the Switch might start really declining in sales in its 8th year on the market?

LOL

You can't compare that.
Switch was new tech with exclusive games.
Xbox One and PS4 already saturated.
Now it's a quite different equation. It won't be a major impact, but some is possible.
Especially with $ to spend for many low income families being less.

 

[Joseki]

.

 

[Torpoleon]

Using Japanese release dates:

NDS > 3DS - 6 years, 2 months
3DS > NSW - 6 years, 1 month
NSW > ??? - 6 years, 0-3 month (continuing the pattern) = FYQ1 '24

Announced BotW 2 release date: Spring '23 (very lateFYQ4 '23 - FYQ1 '24)

Things are different now, with Nintendo having only one console to support as opposed to two (and if you ask me, I feel like they launched 3DS too soon after their successful DS and don't want that mistake repeated with successful Switch).

I can't see Nintendo reaching their forecast without a revision, so I still believe we are getting a Switch revision, not successor before the end of the FY. At this point, I have ruled out it happening this holiday, so I would say March 2023 with Zelda.

 

[Herb Alpert]

People who expect Switch to crater at some point are wrong imo, as are people that think PS5 availability will affect Switch sales in any significant way.

But imo people who think Nintendo can just cruise by and launch the next version whenever they want are also wrong. Switch is imo in risk of losing significant mindshare with the "hardcore" crowd the more time passes, and as I see it this crowd is very important for the success of the next Switch iteration, given its expected nature.

This

 

[JavelinR]

I'm not seeing any historical basis being brought forward for these "mind share" and "momentum" arguments . Especially for Nintendo who at least twice has bucked this idea and gone from their worst selling console to their best.

The only things that have shown to be important when launching consoles are: price, console capability, launch exclusives, and now production capability. Nebulous ideas like "mind share" aren't a priority. If they have to wait until 2025 to have a good launch year lineup ready, than that's the smart move. Nintendo can recover from "bad momentum". What they can't recover from is a perception there's no games for their system.
Same thing with parts. Having a popular console doesn't matter if you can't meet the high demand. We're already seeing PS5 fall further behind projections and there's no guarantee the hype will still be there when production stabilizes.
Rushing to capitalizes on momentum honestly sounds like a Sega move.

 

[ILikeFeet]

If they have to wait until 2025 to have a good launch year lineup ready, than that's the smart move. Nintendo can recover from "bad momentum". What they can't recover from is a perception there's no games for their system.

I'd argue that PS5 and Series has shown that this isn't an incredibly big need if games can seamlessly carry over and offer improved functionality. essentially, people don't mind PS4/XBO games in a fancy box if it has features to justify that. Mario Kart 8D "NOW IN 4K!", Scarlet and Violet "WITH NEW 60FPS HAT!", and Nintendo Switch Sports "WITH DLSS INSTEAD OF FSR" are good for a lot of people in addition to whatever Switch games nintendo has slated.

 

[Joseki]

.

 

[tentacle-tropes]

People need to remember that next year we will finally start seeing the first proper next gen exclusives, it’s gonna be another factor to consider for the Switch decline.

So far they sold 20-30 million consoles solely to play PS4 games in 4K.

I think we heard the same with PS4/X1 yet that really didn’t do much.

 

[awng782]

It's probably worth mentioning that Zelda BOTW2 doesn't necessarily have to be the big launch title for the new Switch hardware.

 

[My Tulpa]

You can't compare that.
Switch was new tech with exclusive games.
Xbox One and PS4 already saturated.
Now it's a quite different equation. It won't be a major impact, but some is possible.
Especially with $ to spend for many low income families being less.

Already saturated? In 2017? Switch launched just after the ps4 pro/slim and before the One X/slim launched.

And the ps5 and Series S and Series X are already almost 2 years old now. Zero effect on Switch hardware and software sales.

There is no correlation between Nintendo as a 1st party gaming machine and PlayStation/Xbox/pc as a 3rd party gaming machine. Zero effect.

You talking about low income families choosing a $500 ps5 over a $199 Switch seems kind of silly to me.

Nintendo console success/failure is completely decided by their 1st party output/support. Xbox/pc/PlayStation has no effect on this.

 

[My Tulpa]

People need to remember that next year we will finally start seeing the first proper next gen exclusives, it’s gonna be another factor to consider for the Switch decline.

So far they sold 20-30 million consoles solely to play PS4 games in 4K.

Are you implying there were no huge, pretty videogames released on the Xbox/PlayStation/PC from 2017-2022? That in 2024 you will FINALLY see games released exclusively to the Xbox/PlayStation/PC that put Nintendo gaming to shame? Finally this will happen?

 

[My Tulpa]

It's probably worth mentioning that Zelda BOTW2 doesn't necessarily have to be the big launch title for the new Switch hardware.

It’s also probably worth mentioning that new Switch hardware doesn’t need any launch titles tied to it to sell out completely.

 

[Terrell]

Pulled this in from the other thread on recommendation:

A “gen breaking successor” model (in this day and age) is a new model designed to replace all previous models as quickly as possible. All software/services focus shifts toward the new successor even before it releases. All previous models essentially stop production post successor release.

This new Drake model won’t act like that. It will be just another option in the Switch family ecosystem like the Lite was. Nintendo isn’t going to stop making and selling OLED Switches, Nintendo isn’t going to stop making and selling $199-$299 Switch model price point options. Nintendo isn’t going to shift software/services focus to Drake and away from the other models.

NES was produced for the US market all the way through to 1995, almost the entirety of SNES lifespan. SNES wasn’t discontinued until 1999, though the majority of the N64 lifecycle. And this is without discussing Japan, where neither console was discontinued until the early 2000s. PS2 was manufactured for 12 years. DS was discontinued at an undisclosed date some time in its 11th or 12th year in 2016 at the earliest. 3DS was manufactured through to 2020. PS4 is re-entering heftier production numbers after a premature winding down.

Consoles, especially the incredibly successful ones, do not leave production all that quickly if it can be helped, even if there’s a new hardware cycle present, and there’s no indication of a major part discontinuation that suggests they’d have to stop producing Switches. Yearly sales numbers for older hardware do decline, but certainly not to nothing and definitely not immediately, the figures recorded by Nintendo and SIE in this regard back that up.

 

[Brandonleemoss]

Dev kits have been in the wild since late 2020, unless you think Nintendo is okay with dev kits of unreleased hardware being out for 4 years predicting 2024+ makes little sense. Only way that can happen if it was scheduled for H2 2023 CY and for whatever reason it gets delayed to Q1 24 CU.

Does that mean the SoC of the new switch will be based off of tech from 2020 too?
Can nintendo maybe get a custom chip for Nvidia? If released in 2023 can they
maybe update it?

 

[Terrell]

Does that mean the SoC of the new switch will be based off of tech from 2020 too?
Can nintendo maybe get a custom chip for Nvidia? If released in 2023 can they
maybe update it?

Kits that were in the wild were based on loosely-anticipated final specifications for hardware to be released at a later date, which they can roughly anticipate ahead of time. Final hardware is often more capable. This is why launch titles are typically less capable than games that are released through a hardware’s lifespan, as non-launch games get more time to be optimized for final hardware specifications.
That being said, you don’t release preliminary kits without a timetable for release, so as to not generate a huge performance gap between prelim kits and the final hardware. Prelim kits are when there’s more specific hardware details that are confirmed and hammered out with the chip manufacturers, usually based on performance expected for chips not yet in production.

EDIT: This is why PS5 and XBS were based on RDNA 2 with preliminary kits issued at least 2 years in advance, despite there being no RDNA 2 hardware in the wild at the time those kits were issued; they were spec’d out to approximate what RDNA 2 hardware would be capable of.

 

[fully engaged]

Nintendo can wait and wait. Even if rumored dev kits were sent, unlikely in 2020 to be honest that is only 3 years after the switch launched and in the height of the pandemic, Dev kits can be updated and improved. No software company is going to be upset at being able to add more to their games..
Basically, I think that Nintendo will wait until they can get the best battery life out of the highest performance jump with in their target costs. Nintendo is not going to be chasing western developed games, especially as half the publishers now belong to MS and the other half will take huge money hats.
Nintendo will continue to romance the developers from Japan.

I dont expect a new Switch until late 2024 and that will depend on the issues with China. China is currently unreliable as a manufacturing base and as a stable country.

 

[fully engaged]

Does that mean the SoC of the new switch will be based off of tech from 2020 too?
Can nintendo maybe get a custom chip for Nvidia? If released in 2023 can they
maybe update it?

I see no reason why dev kits would be out in 2020. Think about the year 2020 was.. I think what happened was someone heard about a dockable portable device and assumed it was the Switch 2 when it was more than likely the steam deck.

 

[ILikeFeet]

I see no reason why dev kits would be out in 2020. Think about the year 2020 was.. I think what happened was someone heard about a dockable portable device and assumed it was the Switch 2 when it was more than likely the steam deck.

devs kits take many forms. including literal pc parts in a nondescript box. also the Nvidia theft shown that hardware was up and running in 2020

 

[jacsoncr]

Yea I think this is inline with what the majority of folks who follow these developments believe.

Component sourcing challenges at the crux of all this?
Would Nintendo delay Breath of the Wild 2 again to more closely track updated hardware release?
If you believe the story about how many publishers are already developing games for the new hardware spec, how frustrated must they be?

It is not in any line with the fans of the pro and drake, they clearly said 22 start of 23 after years of failing, in 2024 they will say that their forecast was fulfilled