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Media Create Prediction League : July 2022 [RESULTS !]

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Lelouch0612

Lelouch0612

Staff
Archivist Genius Staff
Hello everyone !

While we are still waiting on the final results of June, it is already time to open the July edition of the Prediction League !

We are aiming to host this prediction contest every month, when the release schedule allows it. The rules are simple, you can make and edit your prediction on the following titles until July 10th 23:59 CEST which basically means that as soon the COMG orders chart is updated, you can no longer change your prediction. So don't edit your post after that deadline.

At the end of the month, the results will be shared and the predictors will be ranked by units and %mean error. This is the second yearly edition of this contest already.

The tracked period will be July 4th to July 31st (4 weeks). I also ask you to respect the following formatting :

[Platform] Full name of the game (number of days accounted) : 100 000

Now let's get things started with the July edition of the Media Create Prediction League !

[NSW] Live A Live (3 days) -
[NSW+PS4] Digimon Survive (4 days) -
[NSW] Xenoblade Chronicles 3 (3 days) -
[NSW] Monster Hunter Rise + Sunbreak Set (28 days) -
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (4 weeks) -

If you have any remarks or suggestions, don't hesitate to share !

Media Create Prediction League : January 2021
Media Create Prediction League : February 2021
Media Create Prediction League : March 2021
 
[NSW] Live A Live (3 days) -76.666
[NSW+PS4] Digimon Survive (4 days) - 53.333
[NSW] Xenoblade Chronicles 3 (3 days) - 188.888
[NSW] Monster Hunter Rise + Sunbreak Set (28 days) -68.000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (4 weeks) -250.000
 
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[NSW] Live A Live (3 days) : 70 000
[NSW+PS4] Digimon Survive (4 days) : 50 000
[NSW] Xenoblade Chronicles 3 (3 days) : 145 000
[NSW] Monster Hunter Rise + Sunbreak Set (28 days) : 70 000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (4 weeks) : 215 000
 
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[NSW] Live A Live (3 days) - 75.000
[NSW+PS4] Digimon Survive (4 days) - 60.000
[NSW] Xenoblade Chronicles 3 (3 days) - 170.000
[NSW] Monster Hunter Rise + Sunbreak Set (28 days) - 50.000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (4 weeks) - 270.000
 
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[NSW] Live A Live (3 days) : 45 000
[NSW+PS4] Digimon Survive (4 days) : 50 000
[NSW] Xenoblade Chronicles 3 (3 days) : 220 000
[NSW] Monster Hunter Rise + Sunbreak Set (28 days) : 55 000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (4 weeks) : 235 000
 
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[NSW] Live A Live (3 days) : 70 030
[NSW+PS4] Digimon Survive (4 days) : 43 000
[NSW] Xenoblade Chronicles 3 (3 days) : 210 000
[NSW] Monster Hunter Rise + Sunbreak Set (28 days) : 270 000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (4 weeks) : 240 000
 
[NSW] Live A Live (3 days) - 81 738
[NSW+PS4] Digimon Survive (4 days) - 33 546
[NSW] Xenoblade Chronicles 3 (3 days) - 152 948
[NSW] Monster Hunter Rise + Sunbreak Set (28 days) - 100 000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (4 weeks) - 250 000
 
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[NSW] Live A Live (3 days) : 67.890
[NSW+PS4] Digimon Survive (4 days) : 45.678
[NSW] Xenoblade Chronicles 3 (3 days) : 123.456
[NSW] Monster Hunter Rise + Sunbreak Set (28 days) : 89.012
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (4 weeks) : 234.567
 
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[NSW] Live A Live (3 days) - 65,065
[NSW + PS4] Digimon Survive (4 days) - 57,000
[NSW] Xenoblade Chronicles 3 (3 days): 250,000
[NSW] Monster Hunter Rise + Sunbreak Set (28 days): 110,000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (4 weeks): 214,000
 
Should have had Nobunaga's Ambition imo

_


Historical data/comparisons:


[NSW] Live A Live (Week 1)

[3DS] Bravely Default - 144.909
[3DS] Bravely Second: End Layer - 100.047
[NSW] Octopath Traveler - 109.579
[NSW] Bravely Default II - 93.061
[NSW] Triangle Strategy - 86.298

________________________________________________

[NSW+PS4] Digimon Survive (Week 1)

[PSP] Digimon World Re:Digitize - 73.468
[PSP] Digimon Adventure - 45.438
[3DS] Digimon World Re:Digitize Decode - 37.125
[PSV] Digimon Story: Cyber Sleuth - 53.495
[PSV] Digimon World: Next Order - 52.521
[PS4+PSV] Digimon Story: Cyber Sleuth - Hacker's Memory - 41.786

________________________________________________

[NSW] Xenoblade Chronicles 3 (Week 1)

[WII] Xenoblade Chronicles - 79.163
[WIU] Xenoblade Chronicles X - 88.544
[3DS] Xenoblade Chronicles 3D - 43.762
[NSW] Xenoblade Chronicles 2 - 97.274
[NSW] Xenoblade Chronicles: Definitive Edition - 90.789

[NSW] Fire Emblem: Three Houses - 143.130

________________________________________________

[NSW] Monster Hunter Rise + Sunbreak Set (Weeks 2-5)

[PS4] Monster Hunter: World - Iceborne Master Edition - 155.780
 
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[NSW] Live A Live (3 days) : 42.000
[NSW+PS4] Digimon Survive (4 days) : 63.400
[NSW] Xenoblade Chronicles 3 (3 days) : 247.000
[NSW] Monster Hunter Rise + Sunbreak Set (28 days) : 130.000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (4 weeks) : 231.000

Releasing directly before XB3 makes me feel Digimon Survive will sell more in the 40k range, but I want it to sell more, so going with the above. Switch hw will be "4 times (50k-60k)". Took my XB3 prediction from the prediction thread, but lowered it slightly, because experience-wise, the real number is always slightly disappointing from what I want it to be ... assuming my 250k is anywhere close to reality.
 
[NSW] Live A Live (3 days) : 90000
[NSW+PS4] Digimon Survive (4 days) : 27000
[NSW] Xenoblade Chronicles 3 (3 days) : 166000
[NSW] Monster Hunter Rise + Sunbreak Set (28 days) : 78474
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (4 weeks) : 255000
 
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[NSW] Live A Live (3 days) - 83000
[NSW+PS4] Digimon Survive (4 days) - 40000
[NSW] Xenoblade Chronicles 3 (3 days) - 191000
[NSW] Monster Hunter Rise + Sunbreak Set (28 days) - 96050
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (4 weeks) - 262500
 
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[NSW] Live A Live (3 days) - 100000
[NSW+PS4] Digimon Survive (4 days) - 60000
[NSW] Xenoblade Chronicles 3 (3 days) - 150000
[NSW] Monster Hunter Rise + Sunbreak Set (28 days) - 80000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (4 weeks) - 220000
 
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[NSW] Live A Live (3 days) - 74999
[NSW+PS4] Digimon Survive (4 days) - 49999
[NSW] Xenoblade Chronicles 3 (3 days) - 139999
[NSW] Monster Hunter Rise + Sunbreak Set (28 days) - 129999
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (4 weeks) - 219999
 
People have some high expectations for Xenoblade. Y’all the Special Edition isn’t counted that will skew the charts. DE did 91k with the SE included.

It’s also a voucher game without the LE to soften the blow. I‘m expecting the worse tbh. I think the sales itself will be amazing, but it won’t be reflected in the physical charts unless the game does absolutely bonkers numbers.

[NSW] Live A Live (3 days) - 75.000
[NSW+PS4] Digimon Survive (4 days) - 35.000
[NSW] Xenoblade Chronicles 3 (3 days) - 130.000
[NSW] Monster Hunter Rise + Sunbreak Set (28 days) - 85.000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (4 weeks) - 240.000
 
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[NSW] Live A Live (3 days) - 77.000
[NSW+PS4] Digimon Survive (4 days) - 58.000
[NSW] Xenoblade Chronicles 3 (3 days) - 163.000
[NSW] Monster Hunter Rise + Sunbreak Set (28 days) - 106.000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (4 weeks) - 241.000
 
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[NSW] Live A Live (3 days) - 72.000
[NSW+PS4] Digimon Survive (4 days) - 44.000
[NSW] Xenoblade Chronicles 3 (3 days) - 117.000
[NSW] Monster Hunter Rise + Sunbreak Set (28 days) - 169.000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (4 weeks) - 244.000
 
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[NSW] Live A Live (3 days) - 60.000
[NSW+PS4] Digimon Survive (4 days) - 40.000
[NSW] Xenoblade Chronicles 3 (3 days) - 125.000
[NSW] Monster Hunter Rise + Sunbreak Set (28 days) -150.000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (4 weeks) -250.000
 
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[NSW] Live A Live (3 days) - 65.400
[NSW+PS4] Digimon Survive (4 days) - 45.300
[NSW] Xenoblade Chronicles 3 (3 days) - 153.000
[NSW] Monster Hunter Rise + Sunbreak Set (28 days) - 182.400
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (4 weeks) - 213.500
 
[NSW] Live A Live (3 days) - 54,777
[NSW+PS4] Digimon Survive (4 days) - 34,777
[NSW] Xenoblade Chronicles 3 (3 days) - 149,777
[NSW] Monster Hunter Rise + Sunbreak Set (28 days) - 64,777
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (4 weeks) - 224,777
 
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[NSW] Live A Live (3 days) - 69.876
[NSW+PS4] Digimon Survive (4 days) - 28.765
[NSW] Xenoblade Chronicles 3 (3 days) - 146.543
[NSW] Monster Hunter Rise + Sunbreak Set (28 days) - 43.210
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (4 weeks) - 252.109
 
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[NSW] Live A Live (3 days) : 80.000
[NSW+PS4] Digimon Survive (4 days) : 45.000
[NSW] Xenoblade Chronicles 3 (3 days) : 200.000
[NSW] Monster Hunter Rise + Sunbreak Set (28 days) : 75.000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (4 weeks) : 285.000
 
[NSW] Live A Live (3 days) : 75 000
[NSW+PS4] Digimon Survive (4 days) : 55 000
[NSW] Xenoblade Chronicles 3 (3 days) : 110 000
[NSW] Monster Hunter Rise + Sunbreak Set (28 days) : 90 000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (4 weeks) : 280 000
 
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[NSW] Live A Live (3 days) : 49.999
[NSW+PS4] Digimon Survive (4 days) : 39.999
[NSW] Xenoblade Chronicles 3 (3 days) : 149.999
[NSW] Monster Hunter Rise + Sunbreak Set (28 days) : 29.999
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (4 weeks) : 269.999
 
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[NSW] Live A Live (3 days) : 67.450
[NSW+PS4] Digimon Survive (4 days) : 55.000
[NSW] Xenoblade Chronicles 3 (3 days) : 157.000
[NSW] Monster Hunter Rise + Sunbreak Set (28 days) : 127.500
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (4 weeks) : 255.000
 
[NSW] Live A Live (3 days) - 76543
[NSW+PS4] Digimon Survive (4 days) - 43210
[NSW] Xenoblade Chronicles 3 (3 days) - 161616
[NSW] Monster Hunter Rise + Sunbreak Set (28 days) - 123456
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (4 weeks) - 260482
 
[NSW] Live A Live (3 days) - 45.000
[NSW+PS4] Digimon Survive (4 days) - 43.000
[NSW] Xenoblade Chronicles 3 (3 days) - 140.000
[NSW] Monster Hunter Rise + Sunbreak Set (28 days) - 79.000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (4 weeks) - 250.000
 
[NSW] Live A Live (3 days) - 83.000
[NSW+PS4] Digimon Survive (4 days) - 63.000
[NSW] Xenoblade Chronicles 3 (3 days) - 162.000
[NSW] Monster Hunter Rise + Sunbreak Set (28 days) - 63.000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (4 weeks) - 280.000
 
Last edited:
DarkDetective said:
[NSW] Monster Hunter Rise + Sunbreak Set (28 days) - 79.000
Click to expand...
Lelouch0612 said:
[NSW] Monster Hunter Rise + Sunbreak Set (28 days) - 71.000
Click to expand...
Chris1964 said:
01./00. [NSW] Monster Hunter Rise + Sunbreak Set <Monster Hunter Rise \ Monster Hunter Rise: Sunbreak> <ACT> (Capcom) {2022.06.30} (¥7.990) - 104.315 / NEW <40-60%>
Click to expand...

Please help my brain. Maybe I misunderstood something. The MH Set already sold 104k. Why the sub-launch amount predictions?
 
[NSW] Live A Live (3 days) - 67 000
[NSW+PS4] Digimon Survive (4 days) - 58 000
[NSW] Xenoblade Chronicles 3 (3 days) - 144 000
[NSW] Monster Hunter Rise + Sunbreak Set (28 days) - 60 000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (4 weeks) - 265 000
 
Last edited:
[NSW] Live A Live (3 days) : 81.000
[NSW+PS4] Digimon Survive (4 days) : 40.000
[NSW] Xenoblade Chronicles 3 (3 days) : 162.000
[NSW] Monster Hunter Rise + Sunbreak Set (28 days) : 58.000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (4 weeks) : 255.000
 
[NSW] Live A Live (3 days) - 85.000
[NSW+PS4] Digimon Survive (4 days) - 55.000
[NSW] Xenoblade Chronicles 3 (3 days) - 145.000
[NSW] Monster Hunter Rise + Sunbreak Set (28 days) - 65.000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (4 weeks) - 265.000
 
[NSW] Live A Live (3 days) - 62.000
[NSW+PS4] Digimon Survive (4 days) - 59.000
[NSW] Xenoblade Chronicles 3 (3 days) - 179.000
[NSW] Monster Hunter Rise + Sunbreak Set (28 days) - 63.000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (4 weeks) - 272.000

Forgot to participate in the June edition, but not today!

I'm predicting a ~400k+ week 1 for XC3 including digital (~50% share) and the untracked SE.
 
[NSW] Live A Live (3 days) -57.000
[NSW+PS4] Digimon Survive (4 days) - 45.000
[NSW] Xenoblade Chronicles 3 (3 days) - 135.000
[NSW] Monster Hunter Rise + Sunbreak Set (28 days) -53.000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (4 weeks) -237.000
 
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[NSW] Live A Live (3 days) - 50,000
[NSW+PS4] Digimon Survive (4 days) - 50,000
[NSW] Xenoblade Chronicles 3 (3 days) - 150,000
[NSW] Monster Hunter Rise + Sunbreak Set (28 days) - 63,000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (4 weeks) - 240,000
 
[NSW] Live A Live (3 days) - 68,000
[NSW+PS4] Digimon Survive (4 days) - 41,000
[NSW] Xenoblade Chronicles 3 (3 days) - 131,000
[NSW] Monster Hunter Rise + Sunbreak Set (28 days) - 46,000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (4 weeks) - 240,000
 
[NSW] Live A Live (3 days) - 55,000
[NSW + PS4] Digimon Survive (4 days) - 47,000
[NSW] Xenoblade Chronicles 3 (3 days) - 152,000
[NSW] Monster Hunter Rise + Sunbreak Set (28 days) - 57,000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (4 weeks) - 267,000
 
[NSW] Live A Live (3 days) - 85.000
[NSW+PS4] Digimon Survive (4 days) - 57.050
[NSW] Xenoblade Chronicles 3 (3 days) - 147.500
[NSW] Monster Hunter Rise + Sunbreak Set (28 days) - 55.005
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (4 weeks) - 225.000
 
NSW] Live A Live (3 days) - 65.000
[NSW+PS4] Digimon Survive (4 days) - 74.000
[NSW] Xenoblade Chronicles 3 (3 days) - 95.000
[NSW] Monster Hunter Rise + Sunbreak Set (28 days) - 160.000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (4 weeks) - 255.000


Edit: the Sunbreak+ Rise set is the game with the DLC code right? Or is it something else?
 
Haven't done it in a while...

[NSW] Live A Live (3 days) - 61.000
[NSW+PS4] Digimon Survive (4 days) - 45.000
[NSW] Xenoblade Chronicles 3 (3 days) - 138.000
[NSW] Monster Hunter Rise + Sunbreak Set (28 days) - 76.000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (4 weeks) - 250.000
 
[NSW] Live A Live (3 days) - 63.000
[NSW+PS4] Digimon Survive (4 days) - 65.000
[NSW] Xenoblade Chronicles 3 (3 days) - 135.000
[NSW] Monster Hunter Rise + Sunbreak Set (28 days) - 100.000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (4 weeks) - 260.000
 
[NSW] Live A Live (3 days) - 50.000
[NSW+PS4] Digimon Survive (4 days) - 45.000
[NSW] Xenoblade Chronicles 3 (3 days) - 130.000
[NSW] Monster Hunter Rise + Sunbreak Set (28 days) - 90.000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (4 weeks) - 255.000
 
[NSW] Live A Live (3 days) - 66.666
[NSW + PS4] Digimon Survive (4 days) - 39.800
[NSW] Xenoblade Chronicles 3 (3 days) - 234.567
[NSW] Monster Hunter Rise + Sunbreak Set (28 days) - 99.999
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (4 weeks) - 300.000
 
[NSW] Live A Live (3 days) - 92.000
[NSW+PS4] Digimon Survive (4 days) - 61.000
[NSW] Xenoblade Chronicles 3 (3 days) - 187.000
[NSW] Monster Hunter Rise + Sunbreak Set (28 days) - 56.000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (4 weeks) - 284.000
 
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[NSW] Live A Live (3 days) - 79.000
[NSW+PS4] Digimon Survive (4 days) - 35.000
[NSW] Xenoblade Chronicles 3 (3 days) - 200.000
[NSW] Monster Hunter Rise + Sunbreak Set (28 days) - 60.000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (4 weeks) - 311.000
 
[NSW] Live A Live (3 days) - 66,880
[NSW+PS4] Digimon Survive (4 days) - 48,640
[NSW] Xenoblade Chronicles 3 (3 days) - 144,300
[NSW] Monster Hunter Rise + Sunbreak Set (28 days) - 45,282
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (4 weeks) - 252,000
 
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