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Media Create Prediction League : February 2022 [FINAL RESULTS !]

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Lelouch0612

Lelouch0612

Staff
Archivist Genius Staff
Hello everyone !

While we are still waiting on the very final results of January, it is already time to open the February edition of the Prediction League !

We are aiming to host this prediction contest every month. The rules are simple, you can make and edit your prediction on the following titles until February 6th 22:59 CEST which basically means that as soon the COMG orders chart is updated, you can no longer change your prediction. So don't edit your post after that deadline.

At the end of the month, the results will be shared and the predictors will be ranked by units and %mean error. This is the second yearly edition of this contest already.

The tracked period will be January 31st to February 27th. I also ask you to respect the following formatting :

[Platform] Full name of the game (number of days accounted) : 100 000

Now let's get things started with the Ferbruary edition of the Media Create Prediction League !

[NSW] Touken Ranbu Warriors (4 days) -
[PS4+PS5] Horizon Forbidden West (3 days) -
[PS4+NSW] Atelier Sophie 2 (4 days) -
[PS5] Elden Ring (3 days) -
[PS4] Elden Ring (3 days) -
[NSW] Pokémon Legends Arceus (28 days) -

If you have any remarks or suggestions, don't hesitate to share !

Media Create Prediction League : January 2021
 
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[NSW] Touken Ranbu Warriors (4 days) - 55555
[PS4 + PS5] Horizon Forbidden West (3 days) - 99000
[PS4 + NSW] Atelier Sophie 2 (4 days) -89000
[PS5] Elden Ring (3 days) - 80000
[PS4] Elden Ring (3 days)- 125000
[NSW] Pokemon Legends Arceus (28 days) - 1090000
 
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[NSW] Touken Ranbu Warriors (4 days] - 50500
[PS4 + PS5] Horizon Forbidden West (3 days)- 110000
[PS4 + NSW] Atelier Sophie 2 (4 days) - 80000
[PS5] Elden Ring (3 days) - 70000
[PS4] Elden Ring (3 days) - 150000
[NSW] Pokemon Legends Arceus (28 days) - 1250000

Edit 1: TRW aged badly. HWF not as badly.
 
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No prediction for Arceus' February performance? EDIT: Thx 👍🏻✨

[NSW] Touken Ranbu Warriors (4 days) 47000
[PS4+PS5] Horizon Forbidden West (3 days) -54000
[PS4+NSW] Atelier Sophie 2 (4 days) - 77000
[PS5] Elden Ring (3 days) - 36000
[PS4] Elden Ring (3 days) - 160000
[NSW] Pokemon Legends Arceus (28 days) - 1170000
 
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[NSW] Touken Ranbu Warriors (4 days) - 68000
[PS4+PS5] Horizon Forbidden West (3 days) - 48000
[PS4+NSW] Atelier Sophie 2 (4 days) -83000
[PS5] Elden Ring (3 days) - 72000
[PS4] Elden Ring (3 days) - 110000
[NSW] Pokemon Legends Arceus (28 days) - 1050000
 
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[NSW] Touken Ranbu Warriors (4 días) - 60.000
[PS4 + PS5] Horizon Forbidden West (3 días) - 70.000
[PS4 + NSW] Atelier Sophie 2 (4 días) -95.000
[PS5] Elden Ring (3 días) - 70.000
[PS4] Elden Ring (3 días) 130.000
[NSW] Pokémon Legends Arceus (28 días) - 1.350.000
 
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[NSW] Touken Ranbu Warriors (4 days) - 111.111
[PS4+PS5] Horizon Forbidden West (3 days) - 92.222
[PS4+NSW] Atelier Sophie 2 (4 days) - 52.222
[PS5] Elden Ring (3 days) - 80.955
[PS4] Elden Ring (3 days) - 120.954
[NSW] Pokémon Legends Arceus (28 days) - 1.001.279
 
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[NSW] Touken Ranbu Warriors (4 days) - 80.000
[PS4+PS5] Horizon Forbidden West (3 days) - 65.000
[PS4+NSW] Atelier Sophie 2 (4 days) - 95.000
[PS5] Elden Ring (3 days) - 55.000
[PS4] Elden Ring (3 days) - 130.000
[NSW] Pokémon Legends Arceus (28 days) - 1.250.000
 
[NSW] Touken Ranbu Warriors (4 days) - 30001
[PS4+PS5] Horizon Forbidden West (3 days) - 60002
[PS4+NSW] Atelier Sophie 2 (4 days) - 80003
[PS5] Elden Ring (3 days) - 60004
[PS4] Elden Ring (3 days) - 140005
[NSW] Pokémon Legends Arceus (28 days) - 1100006
 
Historical data/comparisons:


[NSW] Touken Ranbu Warriors (Week 1)

Other original Warriors games available on Nintendo Switch
[3DS+NSW] Fire Emblem Warriors - 62.154 (40.606 on Switch)
[PS4+NSW] Warriors Orochi 4 - 134.368 (28.493 on Switch)
[PS4+NSW] One Piece: Pirate Warriors 4 - 137.569 (61.571 on Switch)
[NSW] Hyrule Warriors: Age of Calamity - 173.215
[PS4+NSW] Samurai Warriors 5 - 94.366 (38.691 on Switch)

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[PS4+PS5] Horizon Forbidden West (Week 1)

Previous title
[PS4] Horizon: Zero Dawn - 109.739

PS4 to PS4+PS5 transition in another SIE series
[PS4] Marvel's Spider-Man - 132.520
[PS4+PS5] Marvel's Spider-Man: Miles Morales - 41.522 (down 69%)

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[PS4+NSW] Atelier Sophie 2: The Alchemist of the Mysterious Dream (Week 1)

Previous title
[PSV+PS4+PS3] Atelier Sophie: The Alchemist of the Mysterious Book - 68.254

Direct sequel transition in another subseries
[PS4+NSW] Atelier Ryza: Ever Darkness & the Secret Hideout - 78.966
[PS4+NSW] Atelier Ryza 2: Lost Legends & the Secret Fairy - 74.630 (down 5%)

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[PS5] Elden Ring (Week 1)
[PS4] Elden Ring (Week 1)

Previous titles
[PS3] Demon's Souls - 36.794
[PS3] Dark Souls - 228.870
[PS3] Dark Souls II - 256.701
[PS4] Bloodborne - 150.245
[PS4] Dark Souls III - 218.764
[PS4] Sekiro: Shadows Die Twice - 150.721

System split of other PS4+PS5 titles
[PS4] Resident Evil Village - 111.171 (74%)
[PS5] Resident Evil Village - 38.713 (26%)
[PS4] Tales of Arise - 151.316 (75%)
[PS5] Tales of Arise - 50.482 (25%)
[PS4] Lost Judgment - 111.852 (77%)
[PS5] Lost Judgment - 33.151 (23%)
[PS4] Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba - The Hinokami Chronicles - 94.849 (82%)
[PS5] Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba - The Hinokami Chronicles - 20.187 (18%)

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[NSW] Pokémon Legends: Arceus (Weeks 2-5)

Previous titles
[NSW] Pokémon: Let's Go, Pikachu/Eevee! - 404.820 (LTD: 1.069.018)
[NSW] Pokémon Sword/Shield - 1.091.915 (LTD: 2.456.459)
[NSW] Pokémon Brilliant Diamond/Shining Pearl - 767.055 (LTD: 2.162.697)

Another late January launch
[GBA] Pokémon Fire Red/Leaf Green - 623.348 (LTD: 1.578.685)
 
[NSW] Touken Ranbu Warriors (4 days) - 67.000
[PS4+PS5] Horizon Forbidden West (3 days) - 75.000
[PS4+NSW] Atelier Sophie 2 (4 days) - 73.000
[PS5] Elden Ring (3 days) - 71.000
[PS4] Elden Ring (3 days) - 168.000
[NSW] Pokémon Legends Arceus (28 days) - 849.000
 
[NSW] Touken Ranbu Warriors (4 days) - 44.444
[PS4+PS5] Horizon Forbidden West (3 days) - 88.888
[PS4+NSW] Atelier Sophie 2 (4 days) - 66.666
[PS5] Elden Ring (3 days) - 55.555
[PS4] Elden Ring (3 days) - 122.222
[NSW] Pokémon Legends Arceus (28 days) - 777.777
 
[NSW] Touken Ranbu Warriors (4 days) - 97.541
[PS4 + PS5] Horizon Forbidden West (3 days) - 67.000
[PS4 + NSW] Atelier Sophie 2 (4 days) -79.500
[PS5] Elden Ring (3 days) - 50.000
[PS4] Elden Ring (3 days)- 110.000
[NSW] Pokemon Legends Arceus (28 days) - 921.000



 
[NSW] Touken Ranbu Warriors (4 days) - 85 058
[PS4 + PS5] Horizon Forbidden West (3 days) - 65 056
[PS4 + NSW] Atelier Sophie 2 (4 days) - 55 055
[PS5] Elden Ring (3 days) - 50 005
[PS4] Elden Ring (3 days) - 115 511
[NSW] Pokemon Legends Arceus (28 days) - 1 100 011

Palindromic Numbers
 
[NSW] Touken Ranbu Warriors (4 days) - 45 000
[PS4+PS5] Horizon Forbidden West (3 days) - 87 000
[PS4+NSW] Atelier Sophie 2 (4 days) - 80 000
[PS5] Elden Ring (3 days) - 20 000
[PS4] Elden Ring (3 days) - 120 000
[NSW] Pokémon Legends Arceus (28 days) - 800 000
 
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[NSW] Touken Ranbu Warriors (4 days) - 67 890
[PS4+PS5] Horizon Forbidden West (3 days) - 89 012
[PS4+NSW] Atelier Sophie 2 (4 days) - 78 901
[PS5] Elden Ring (3 days) - 65 432
[PS4] Elden Ring (3 days) - 109 876
[NSW] Pokémon Legends Arceus (28 days) - 765 432
 
[NSW] Touken Ranbu Warriors (4 days) - 80k
[PS4+PS5] Horizon Forbidden West (3 days) - 77k
[PS4+NSW] Atelier Sophie 2 (4 days) - 75k
[PS5] Elden Ring (3 days) - 42k
[PS4] Elden Ring (3 days) - 95k
[NSW] Pokémon Legends Arceus (28 days) - 760k
 
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For comparisons of W2-W5…..

SwSh: 1.091.915
BDSP: 767.055

Mind that this has holiday shopping period in them
 
[NSW] Touken Ranbu Warriors (4 days) - 64.000
[PS4 + PS5] Horizon Forbidden West (3 days) - 92.000
[PS4 + NSW] Atelier Sophie 2 (4 days) -76.000
[PS5] Elden Ring (3 days) - 54.000
[PS4] Elden Ring (3 days)- 107.000
[NSW] Pokemon Legends Arceus (28 days) - 873.000
 
[NSW] Touken Ranbu Warriors (4 days) - 44 333
[PS4+PS5] Horizon Forbidden West (3 days) - 99 999
[PS4+NSW] Atelier Sophie 2 (4 days) - 77 111
[PS5] Elden Ring (3 days) - 55 777
[PS4] Elden Ring (3 days) - 99 999
[NSW] Pokémon Legends Arceus (28 days) - 888 666
 
[NSW] Touken Ranbu Warriors (4 days) - 52.000
[PS4+PS5] Horizon Forbidden West (3 days) - 32.000
[PS4+NSW] Atelier Sophie 2 (4 days) - 95.000
[PS5] Elden Ring (3 days) - 25.000
[PS4] Elden Ring (3 days) - 120.000
[NSW] Pokémon Legends Arceus (28 days) - 856.000
 
[NSW] Touken Ranbu Warriors (4 days) - 60.900
[PS4+PS5] Horizon Forbidden West (3 days) - 59.900
[PS4+NSW] Atelier Sophie 2 (4 days) - 70.900
[PS5] Elden Ring (3 days) - 39.900
[PS4] Elden Ring (3 days) - 99.900
[NSW] Pokémon Legends Arceus (28 days) - 799.000
 
[NSW] Touken Ranbu Warriors (4 days) - 50.000
[PS4+PS5] Horizon Forbidden West (3 days) - 55.000
[PS4+NSW] Atelier Sophie 2 (4 days) - 45.000
[PS5] Elden Ring (3 days) - 100.000
[PS4] Elden Ring (3 days) - 150.000
[NSW] Pokémon Legends Arceus (28 days) - 1.000.000
 
[NSW] Touken Ranbu Warriors (4 days) - 55000
[PS4+PS5] Horizon Forbidden West (3 days) - 69000
[PS4+NSW] Atelier Sophie 2 (4 days) - 40000
[PS5] Elden Ring (3 days) -60000
[PS4] Elden Ring (3 days) -12000
[NSW] Pokémon Legends Arceus (28 days) - 770000
 
[NSW] Touken Ranbu Warriors (4 días) - 50.000
[PS4 + PS5] Horizon Forbidden West (3 días) - 65.000
[PS4 + NSW] Atelier Sophie 2 (4 días) -70.000
[PS5] Elden Ring (3 días) - 40.000
[PS4] Elden Ring (3 días) 90.000
[NSW] Pokémon Legends Arceus (28 días) - 650.000
 
[NSW] Touken Ranbu Warriors (4 days) - 33000
[PS4 + PS5] Horizon Forbidden West (3 days) - 67000
[PS4 + NSW] Atelier Sophie 2 (4 days) -56000
[PS5] Elden Ring (3 days) - 53000
[PS4] Elden Ring (3 days)- 114000
[NSW] Pokemon Legends Arceus (28 days) - 564000
 
[NSW] Touken Ranbu Warriors (4 days) - 44.444
[PS4+PS5] Horizon Forbidden West (3 days) - 66.666
[PS4+NSW] Atelier Sophie 2 (4 days) - 45.554
[PS5] Elden Ring (3 days) - 77.777
[PS4] Elden Ring (3 days) - 135.791
[NSW] Pokémon Legends Arceus (28 days) - 1.234.567
 
[NSW] Touken Ranbu Warriors (4 days) - 100000
[PS4+PS5] Horizon Forbidden West (3 days) - 60000
[PS4+NSW] Atelier Sophie 2 (4 days) - 60000
[PS5] Elden Ring (3 days) - 50000
[PS4] Elden Ring (3 days) - 180000
[NSW] Pokémon Legends Arceus (28 days) - 800000
 
Last edited:
[NSW] Touken Ranbu Warriors (4 days) - 58,000
[PS4+PS5] Horizon Forbidden West (3 days) - 92,000
[PS4+NSW] Atelier Sophie 2 (4 days) - 42,000
[PS5] Elden Ring (3 days) - 75,000
[PS4] Elden Ring (3 days) - 125,000
[NSW] Pokémon Legends Arceus (28 days) - 700,000
 
[NSW] Touken Ranbu Warriors (4 days) - 72 389
[PS4+PS5] Horizon Forbidden West (3 days) - 89 357
[PS4+NSW] Atelier Sophie 2 (4 days) - 72 129
[PS5] Elden Ring (3 days) - 50 000
[PS4] Elden Ring (3 days) - 100 000
[NSW] Pokémon Legends Arceus (28 days) - 985 567
 
[NSW] Touken Ranbu Warriors (4 days) - 20,000
[PS4+PS5] Horizon Forbidden West (3 days) - 70,000
[PS4+NSW] Atelier Sophie 2 (4 days) - 70,000
[PS5] Elden Ring (3 days) - 112,000
[PS4] Elden Ring (3 days) - 48,000
[NSW] Pokémon Legends Arceus (28 days) - 800,000
 
[NSW] Touken Ranbu Warriors (4 days) - 125.290
[PS4+PS5] Horizon Forbidden West (3 days) - 36.200
[PS4+NSW] Atelier Sophie 2 (4 days) - 62.200
[PS5] Elden Ring (3 days) - 35.200
[PS4] Elden Ring (3 days) - 99.250
[NSW] Pokémon Legends Arceus (28 days) - 1.000.250
 
[NSW] Touken Ranbu Warriors (4 days) - 88,450
[PS4+PS5] Horizon Forbidden West (3 days) - 59,150
[PS4+NSW] Atelier Sophie 2 (4 days) - 66,250
[PS5] Elden Ring (3 days) - 45,350
[PS4] Elden Ring (3 days) - 139,550
[NSW] Pokémon Legends Arceus (28 days) - 865,050
 
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[NSW] Touken Ranbu Warriors (4 days) - 75,000
[PS4+PS5] Horizon Forbidden West (3 days) - 115,000
[PS4+NSW] Atelier Sophie 2 (4 days) - 65,000
[PS5] Elden Ring (3 days) - 90,000
[PS4] Elden Ring (3 days) - 160,000
[NSW] Pokémon Legends Arceus (28 days) - 690,000
 
[NSW] Touken Ranbu Warriors (4 days) - 60.000
[PS4+PS5] Horizon Forbidden West (3 days) - 85.000
[PS4+NSW] Atelier Sophie 2 (4 days) - 55.000
[PS5] Elden Ring (3 days) - 55.000
[PS4] Elden Ring (3 days) - 90.000
[NSW] Pokémon Legends Arceus (28 days) - 800.000
 
[NSW] Touken Ranbu Warriors (4 days) - 50.000
[PS4+PS5] Horizon Forbidden West (3 days) - 75.000
[PS4+NSW] Atelier Sophie 2 (4 days) - 60.000
[PS5] Elden Ring (3 days) - 75.000
[PS4] Elden Ring (3 days) - 175.000
[NSW] Pokémon Legends Arceus (28 days) - 750.000
 
[NSW] Touken Ranbu Warriors (4 days) - 70,000
[PS4+PS5] Horizon Forbidden West (3 days) - 65,000
[PS4+NSW] Atelier Sophie 2 (4 days) - 65,000
[PS5] Elden Ring (3 days) - 45,000
[PS4] Elden Ring (3 days) - 100,000
[NSW] Pokémon Legends Arceus (28 days) - 875,000
 
[NSW] Touken Ranbu Warriors (4 days) - 72 004
[PS4+PS5] Horizon Forbidden West (3 days) - 55 005
[PS4+NSW] Atelier Sophie 2 (4 days) - 80 003
[PS5] Elden Ring (3 days) - 30 006
[PS4] Elden Ring (3 days) - 125 002
[NSW] Pokémon Legends Arceus (28 days) - 950 001
 
Quick and dirty. Sorry if I step on anyone's prediction.

[NSW] Touken Ranbu Warriors (4 days) - 53.000
[PS4+PS5] Horizon Forbidden West (3 days) - 61.000
[PS4+NSW] Atelier Sophie 2 (4 days) - 46.000
[PS5] Elden Ring (3 days) - 49.000
[PS4] Elden Ring (3 days) - 160.000
[NSW] Pokémon Legends Arceus (28 days) - 390.000

Thanks! Quote
 
[NSW] Touken Ranbu Warriors (4 days) - 54,321
[PS4+PS5] Horizon Forbidden West (3 days) - 45,678
[PS4+NSW] Atelier Sophie 2 (4 days) - 51,234
[PS5] Elden Ring (3 days) - 12,345
[PS4] Elden Ring (3 days) - 123,456
[NSW] Pokémon Legends Arceus (28 days) - 987,654
 
[NSW] Touken Ranbu Warriors (4 days) - 18,945
[PS4+PS5] Horizon Forbidden West (3 days) - 59,376
[PS4+NSW] Atelier Sophie 2 (4 days) - 71,097
[PS5] Elden Ring (3 days) - 115,792
[PS4] Elden Ring (3 days) - 43,976
[NSW] Pokémon Legends Arceus (28 days) - 837,012
 
[NSW] Touken Ranbu Warriors (4 days) - 88.888
[PS4+PS5] Horizon Forbidden West (3 days) - 44.444
[PS4+NSW] Atelier Sophie 2 (4 days) - 88.888
[PS5] Elden Ring (3 days) - 76.676
[PS4] Elden Ring (3 days) - 121.121
[NSW] Pokémon Legends Arceus (28 days) - 1.111.111
 
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