GamesIndustry.biz: Chris Dring "Xbox sales flatlining in Europe, majority of Xbox games coming to PS5 at some point, MS putting less focus on GamePass
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It was posted in the GSD thread but, yeah it makes sense to have its own thread. Though I think you should change the title as the podcast isn't about GDC but, stuff that happened during the week which includes GDC. The quote is in response to general industry trends including the February GSD Report and Circana results. Maybe change the thread title to GamesIndustry.biz: Chris Dring "Xbox sales flatlining in Europe, majority of Xbox games coming to PS5 at some point, MS putting less focus on GamePass"
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"The major company who released a big game last year said they don't know why they bother supporting it."
And this is exactly why MS should be doing the opposite if what they are and pouring their money/acquisitions into exclusives.
Everyone say "ohh but more people will play it and it's better for all!" But ignores the fact that the competition will become the default place to play if you offer no meaningful difference
And this is exactly why MS should be doing the opposite if what they are and pouring their money/acquisitions into exclusives.
Everyone say "ohh but more people will play it and it's better for all!" But ignores the fact that the competition will become the default place to play if you offer no meaningful difference
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Thanks!
I changed the tittle to your suggestion, thank you very much for the input
I did not check the GSD thread, my bad
I could see it as a last resort before pulling the plug on hardware. The next 5 to 10 years are going to be interesting. It really seems that Xbox hasn't had a "w" in a while other than the acquisition themselves.
It's a possible avenue as boutique hardware akin to the Steam Deck but, they are going to need to make something like Proton that allows a high level of software compatibility. That's sort of the direction I'd expect for future Xboxes in general.
Microsoft was banking heavily on the fact that subscriptions would become central in the video games market but today, 7 years after the launch of the service, it's difficult to see any movement in favor of this.
Microsoft's failure this generation is perhaps more the failure of a new model (the GP)
FRANCE MARKET DATA (SELL)
Microsoft's failure this generation is perhaps more the failure of a new model (the GP)
FRANCE MARKET DATA (SELL)
Flatlining is being generous. Its collapsing.
A big issue for MS is they are trying to change strategy whilst maintaining two SKUs for the Xbox hardware - Series S I absolutely adore but once the PS5 Pro comes in its just a lot more work for developers already struggling to deliver games in a good state.
A big issue for MS is they are trying to change strategy whilst maintaining two SKUs for the Xbox hardware - Series S I absolutely adore but once the PS5 Pro comes in its just a lot more work for developers already struggling to deliver games in a good state.
I think it would just be Windows hardware and support existing Steam libraries and Steam store. I can't see them doing anything beyond that.
Wonder who the publisher is?
If a major one leaves Xbox, others will have the excuse to leave too.
If a major one leaves Xbox, others will have the excuse to leave too.
I continue to say what I have been writing for the past few months. I don't think Microsoft will abandon hardware in the short term, in fact I think from that point of view it will even go for other formats like portable, what I think it will abandon will be the concept of the Xbox console as we have known it since 2001. So I expect less and less marketing, fewer first party exclusives ( most will arrive at launch or after 1 year on other consoles),
less production and shipping of consoles PER YEAR, no longer consoles sold at a loss, agressive discounts or particularly competitive prices , less support from third parties, abandonment of physical support, etc.. I think xbox will become a fairly "niche" option to enter Microsoft's gaming ecosystem, just as Surface for Windows or Steam deck for Steam are, rather than a competitor to the Playstation and Nintendo consoles.
less production and shipping of consoles PER YEAR, no longer consoles sold at a loss, agressive discounts or particularly competitive prices , less support from third parties, abandonment of physical support, etc.. I think xbox will become a fairly "niche" option to enter Microsoft's gaming ecosystem, just as Surface for Windows or Steam deck for Steam are, rather than a competitor to the Playstation and Nintendo consoles.
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Capcom ?
I can't imagine Ubisoft (good relationship) or EA (patriotism) dropping the Xbox complement.
a publisher like Capcom is very likely.
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MS sees the writing on the wall, you are not going to see a reversal for the Xbox brand where people buy it for exclusives the same way they do for Nintendo and Sony consoles. It's just not going to happen. Outside of a handful of countries it might as well not exist. No amount of acquisitions would make this a profitable strategy on the long run.
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Isn't that exactly what happened in the 360 days? The OG xbox was on the map due to halo!
Your telling me that if the series x had consistent 90+ games like the PS4 did it wouldn't matter?
I don't understand why no one questioned the GP business model compared to the growth estimations Microsoft was hoping for.Microsoft was banking heavily on the fact that subscriptions would become central in the video games market but today, 7 years after the launch of the service, it's difficult to see any movement in favor of this.
Microsoft's failure this generation is perhaps more the failure of a new model (the GP)
FRANCE MARKET DATA (SELL)
Unlike Netflix and its competitors, GP subscriptions were always going to be capped by Xbox hardware sales because premium AAA games are not played on smartphones and gaining significant market share on PC where Steam has a total monopoly is close to impossible.
Microsoft was banking heavily on the fact that subscriptions would become central in the video games market but today, 7 years after the launch of the service, it's difficult to see any movement in favor of this.
Microsoft's failure this generation is perhaps more the failure of a new model (the GP)
FRANCE MARKET DATA (SELL)
Steaming has more or less busted as a bubble as Disney, WB, and Comcast has learned. Seems the only steaming services people really want are Netflix and CR. Steaming games may sound good on paper, but where I think MS messed up is that games are not movies or TV shows. You can marathon TV shows and movies quickly and even run out of content (which is what happened during Covid). The same is not true of games where you can live off of one or two games for an entire year, especially with the rise of GAAS like Fortnite or evergreens like Minecraft, GTA5, and MK8. So only the hardcore care about being able to play so many games in an year.
I considered myself a fairly hardcore gamer, but I only invest in about 3-6 games in a year with a few evergreens like ACNH and Splatoon 3. The Switch is honestly the first time I bought so many games since the SNES. I'm also slow. I have Star Ocean 2 still waiting for me to play and I want to get UO and SMTVV this year, but I have been busy with Harvestella and Splatoon 3. So I would get little to no value out of GP because I simply don't play enough games, and given how GP has flatline that seems to be the case for most gamers.
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Honestly I don't think so. PlayStation as a brand has incredibly big mindshare around the world due to Sony having offices everywhere in the 90s, making it easy to transition to marketing for the PlayStation. The original Xbox only sold modestly more than the GameCube and the 360 for all of its success basically tied with the PS3 that gen. It's been over a decade since the Xbox One came out and I'm just not seeing what could move the needle for the brand in the necessary territories at this point.
I'm the exact same way. I only play maybe half a dozen new games a year on average and my backlog is more than enough to entertain me otherwise. The value proposition for streaming games is significantly worse than TV/movies.
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Well according to Sony and regulators COD!
Of course there might not be exactly one thing but if the switch showed anything it was that launching with BOTW and following it up with hit after hit certainly moved the needle.
Zelda went from 4 million skyward sword to a 30 million seller.
I think there is ample evidence if you supply a steady stream of great games that people will buy your hardware
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What's Nintendo, chopped liver? These articles always act like only Sony and MS exist. Surely a bunch more MS games will land on Switch and Switch 2 down the road.
These articles always act like only Sony and MS exist. Surely a bunch more MS games will land on Switch and Switch 2 down the road.
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I've been paying careful attention to the software splits for the past few years and there is no stop to the declining of XB's segment to Playstation especially in UK and US. EU and Asia are untenable.
The ratio is 70:30 including digital even for Western titles in the UK. US is likely not far behind. EU would be 85:15. For JP titles its going to be 10%+ more titled. Therefore globally PS:XB is getting 75:25 Western and 85:15 JP.
From the CMA doc MSFT submitted, its only gotten worse now and is continuing to get worse.
I suspect Xbox is paying JP pubs for ports just to maintain parity in game releases and may soon have to do the same for some Western AAA titles. Phil will never let a major Western AAA miss Xbox, because that would signal the end of the Xbox console and so I think they will continue paying out.
And just to reiterate, Phil and Co told MSFT board and genuinely thought XBS would do good in console sales. Phil in 2020 reckoned they could get near 12-15M sales in a year (last year was around 6.5M).
The ratio is 70:30 including digital even for Western titles in the UK. US is likely not far behind. EU would be 85:15. For JP titles its going to be 10%+ more titled. Therefore globally PS:XB is getting 75:25 Western and 85:15 JP.
From the CMA doc MSFT submitted, its only gotten worse now and is continuing to get worse.
I suspect Xbox is paying JP pubs for ports just to maintain parity in game releases and may soon have to do the same for some Western AAA titles. Phil will never let a major Western AAA miss Xbox, because that would signal the end of the Xbox console and so I think they will continue paying out.
And just to reiterate, Phil and Co told MSFT board and genuinely thought XBS would do good in console sales. Phil in 2020 reckoned they could get near 12-15M sales in a year (last year was around 6.5M).
Been saying for years that XBox as a brand lacks an identity and feels rudderless. Never could relate to the value of Gamepass on a personal level either, especially beyond the pandemic circumstances. Even back then, I thought the industry was too bloated to support that model, not to mention the proliferation of all kinds of other entertainment services.
Time is a very valuable and very finite resource for the average person.
I loved my Xbox 360, but I do not understand the appeal of the Xbox brand today at all.
Time is a very valuable and very finite resource for the average person.
I loved my Xbox 360, but I do not understand the appeal of the Xbox brand today at all.
MS is certainly about to start releasing big FP exclusives at a steadier cadence, which should help somewhat. However, I don't think their situation is really comparable to Nintendo's. If MS wants to increase their market share in places outside the US, they need to market and localize their products better, which they haven't done since the 360 gen. Nintendo had a much stronger presence in Europe and other countries that helped them bounce back so quickly with the Switch.
If it runs windows then it'll instantly be compatible with everything on steam, so I don't think they'll need any layer to improve compatibility.
it is in the context of the traditional AAA console marketWhat's Nintendo, chopped liver?
like EA and the next Battlefield or Capcom and Dragon's Dogma 2, etc...
I think it's only a matter of time at this point.
Basically the only way you get any major income on Xbox ports is if Microsoft pays you to put your games on Gamepass, because they sell miniscule amounts. Games that sell decently on other platforms just makes nothing on Xbox, so the only worth is just to get Microsoft to pay you for making a port.
That seems like a very unhealthy ecosystem in the long run, where the only justification of making ports to that system being to get subsidized by the platform holder, when the traditional way of doing business is gamers just buying your games on mass on that platform, that never happens with Xbox.
Imagine if the only way to make money on releasing games on Switch is if Nintendo pays the studio to make a Nintendo version, that is Microsoft only way now.
That seems like a very unhealthy ecosystem in the long run, where the only justification of making ports to that system being to get subsidized by the platform holder, when the traditional way of doing business is gamers just buying your games on mass on that platform, that never happens with Xbox.
Imagine if the only way to make money on releasing games on Switch is if Nintendo pays the studio to make a Nintendo version, that is Microsoft only way now.
Some gamers seem to think Microsoft is in gaming because they enjoy rivalry with Sony, they are into gaming to get money in the end. They can't just go around and put endless billions into buying up studios, when they have already invested more than Sony and Nintendo will ever do put together, there comes a point where you end up spending more money than you will ever earn from the gaming business. Nintendo has earned more profits during the Switch era from gaming than Microsoft has since they started their gaming business, even though Microsoft invests more into gaming every year than Nintendo can ever do. Return on investment has been miniscule for Microsoft, and that is what they care about.
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And how do you make money in games? If you are a platform holder the main ways are avoiding the 30% cut on all your own software sales and service (Nintendo's main model) or the 30% fee on all third party sales and MTX (Sony and Xbox main model).
The point of investing in exclusives is to lure consumers over from Steam/PS so that you get that 30% on all their COD,FIFA, etc MTX. The problem is that Sony has been executing this strategy and MS has faltered. We are 3 and a half years into this gen and what games have they published? Flight Sim, Forza Horizons 5, Halo Infinite, Grounded, Pentiment, Hi-Fi Rush, Redfall, Starfield, and Forza Motorsport. That's about it. 3 games a year if that? Look at the switch 2017 lineup and compare.
Edit: In fact just look at the 360 in the same timeframe! Gears of war, Perfect dark zero, Viva Pinata, Mass Effect, Blue Dragon, Lost Odyssey, Halo 3, Forza 2, Fable 2, Braid, Halo Wars, Ninja Gaiden 2, Banjo nuts and bolts. And a ton of other smaller games and 3rd party exclusives too. MS used to do this and they saw great success from it!
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And by the way, they bought Activision, but because of the deals they are forced to make they still can't make the games exclusives, in fact they even had to give CoD games to Nintendo for the first time in ages. So they can't even get what you want from buying studios because stuff like Cod still releases on Playstation and will come to Nintendo as well. Which makes it even more uneccesary for them to buy studios because they can't seemingly use these big titles as true exclusives. Mega budget exclusives like Starfield also did next to nothing to drive any sales for the Xbox, which was surely noticed by the Microsoft higher ups as well because after Starfield all the noices about them going multiplatform happened.
We know by now that getting these games on gamepass means nothing for them because people will still prefer to buy the new CoD on their Playstation anyway. Gamepass doesn't drive people into Xbox ecosystem which was the whole point of gamepass from the beginning, so it has been a failure. Given the choice between getting an Xbox and gamepass or buying games on Playstation, people have chosen the second option on mass. In fact since Gamepass was created people have flocked ever more from Xbox to Playstation, not exactly a brilliant strategy.
I'm thinking the handheld will just be Microsoft's Steam Deck and it'll be the Xbox PC store front. Throw in their eventual still in the works (?) mobile store and they have a reason to sell a handheld. It's not like Microsoft makes phones anymore and they need to ensure some device exists that has that front and center.
That's also probably where the OEM rumors come in. Microsoft looking to get other manufacturers to produce their own Xbox gaming portable, like Logitech's G Cloud or ROG Ally. The Samsung Xbox Portable or something.
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Exactly. The platform holders make the most money in gaming (in most tech industries to be frank) and its not even close.
The whole talk that MSFT is going 3rd party to make more profit or revenue is devoid of reality. Even MSFT knows being the platform is how you make the most money, its in all the slides they produce internally for research (leaked from Apple v Epic).
If MSFT goes third party like SEGA etc, then it is not from their own choice, rather the market has pushed them out.
I think they already know this. They've accepted they've lost the battle and just want to make as much money as possible now.
Every time a MS game comes to PS5 it will now benefit and Xbox will lose out but MS will still win. It's strange but nobody thought PS5 was going to get a mid to late gen boost from MS themselves.
Makes one wonder what they acquired all those studios for then.
Dystopia-mode on: MS is gathering the talent to create a virtual world, like Zuckerberg tried with the Metaverse, for a post-WW3 world where everything is shit irl and the surviving super rich will be enjoying their fun, wonderous worlds from within highend-VR headsets. Half-joking.
Dystopia-mode on: MS is gathering the talent to create a virtual world, like Zuckerberg tried with the Metaverse, for a post-WW3 world where everything is shit irl and the surviving super rich will be enjoying their fun, wonderous worlds from within highend-VR headsets. Half-joking.
The big irony is that a 3rd-party Microsoft that releases its games on all platforms would suddenly become a brand you see EVERYWHERE.
I can only assume the Activision Blizzard deal taking so long to close threw a wrench in their plans. The Zenimax deal was lightning fast by comparison.
Couple that with Starfield being a critical failure that couldn’t drive meaningful Game Pass growth.
Xbox seems completely rudderless at this point.
Couple that with Starfield being a critical failure that couldn’t drive meaningful Game Pass growth.
Xbox seems completely rudderless at this point.
To be honest, Xbox has always felt like a very US-centric console. It’s not surprising it’s underperforming in EU markets.
It’s an American brand with American sensibilities. During the 360 era it solidified itself as the Sports, Guns, Cars console. The Xbox One reveal was all about US-only features such as ESPN and honestly they never really recovered from that perception.
Add to that: if you’re a weeb and into Japanese games, it’s simply better to go for Nintendo or PlayStation so on two accounts it’s never come across as a global console, but always “American”
It’s an American brand with American sensibilities. During the 360 era it solidified itself as the Sports, Guns, Cars console. The Xbox One reveal was all about US-only features such as ESPN and honestly they never really recovered from that perception.
Add to that: if you’re a weeb and into Japanese games, it’s simply better to go for Nintendo or PlayStation so on two accounts it’s never come across as a global console, but always “American”
I thought with the expansion of thier first party efforts Xbox would come across a few legitimate exclusives that draw people to their platform but the reality is they haven't produced anything worth a damn. Tbh I always thought purchasing ABK was dumb and when it became obvious they wouldn't be able to make CoD exclusive it was an even dumber acquisition that had no value creation.
I thought the transition into Series X and Series S offered an opportunity to gain more mind and market share after the Xbox One fell off but they just failed at every turn. Now they are effectively a 3rd party considering Xbox hardware has no real necessity in the market if all the games will be on PS5.
I thought the transition into Series X and Series S offered an opportunity to gain more mind and market share after the Xbox One fell off but they just failed at every turn. Now they are effectively a 3rd party considering Xbox hardware has no real necessity in the market if all the games will be on PS5.
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What else is there to be said than MS made their own bed. Sales in Europe wont be good if you dont give Europe the proper care it needs. Seems like pressure from above came to make Xbox profitable before they could loss lead themselves to victory.
Another thing that I dont see other people mention is their contractor policy for their own studios. Ive said this before, but I think the effects of that have been disastrous but invisible. If 343 had a relatively static workforce from all their years of working on Halo, Halo Infinite wouldve been a much better and competent game. However this is sort of impossible to prove for anyone inside the organization. What KPIs are you looking for?
Another thing that I dont see other people mention is their contractor policy for their own studios. Ive said this before, but I think the effects of that have been disastrous but invisible. If 343 had a relatively static workforce from all their years of working on Halo, Halo Infinite wouldve been a much better and competent game. However this is sort of impossible to prove for anyone inside the organization. What KPIs are you looking for?
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well a lot may not like it but next hardware is already confirmed so thats another 10-15yrs minimum counting the rest of xbs.
but man more or less series s was every bit as disastrous as i feared before the generation, if not even more so.
i keep looking for crumbs of them to salvage out this gen but so far they are nowhere.
people DO NOT want a less powerful core option and shame on Phil Spencer for not understanding his own business.
Not even to mention going into the gen with a 52-36 CU lead and somehow just completely blowing it. To the point PS5 runs games just as well. How do you even do that? But yet that still is nothing compared to the S blunder.
Trying to get a mom to understand "Xbox Series X, Xbox Series S, Xbox One S, Xbox One X" is a joke. Just writing it out is painful. But everybody understands ps1, 2, 3, 4, 5. There's only one, PS5, it's the newest bestest only one. it's the one after ps4. the only one.
I might be bold if I'm MS and just call the next one "Xbox". They could go to any number equal or higher to ps, really, 6 or 7, if you add all the iterations, but maybe just xbox? like apple just has the ipad. it's not the ipad 26.
but man more or less series s was every bit as disastrous as i feared before the generation, if not even more so.
i keep looking for crumbs of them to salvage out this gen but so far they are nowhere.
people DO NOT want a less powerful core option and shame on Phil Spencer for not understanding his own business.
Not even to mention going into the gen with a 52-36 CU lead and somehow just completely blowing it. To the point PS5 runs games just as well. How do you even do that? But yet that still is nothing compared to the S blunder.
Trying to get a mom to understand "Xbox Series X, Xbox Series S, Xbox One S, Xbox One X" is a joke. Just writing it out is painful. But everybody understands ps1, 2, 3, 4, 5. There's only one, PS5, it's the newest bestest only one. it's the one after ps4. the only one.
I might be bold if I'm MS and just call the next one "Xbox". They could go to any number equal or higher to ps, really, 6 or 7, if you add all the iterations, but maybe just xbox? like apple just has the ipad. it's not the ipad 26.
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Am I the only one that thinks people are taking Sara Bond's comments about the next XBox way too seriously?
Feels to me like she was just in PR mode with those comments. Not only will I be not surprised if the next XBox is far from the "largest technical leap" but I wouldn't be surprised if there isn't another Xbox at all.
Feels to me like she was just in PR mode with those comments. Not only will I be not surprised if the next XBox is far from the "largest technical leap" but I wouldn't be surprised if there isn't another Xbox at all.
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And that goes from Marketing to even things like localization, where Microsoft massively drops the ball too. I was comparing how many languages got localization (both full text+voice and text only) between Spider-Man 2 and Starfield (latest big game from each)... And the difference is stark.
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Isn't the biggest part of the acquisition the mobile department? Feel like that's what will benefit them as a publisher in the long run than anything to entire people into their console ecosystem.
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damn Starfield has the average Nintendo game text options
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The ABK acquisition helped kill their console, but it also made their position on the industry much stronger in general. It helped them in turning into such a huge publisher that they dont even need the console.
That's cherrypicking. Starfield only supports 9 languages but Forza (arguably Xbox's last big game, though it flopped) supports 21. Spidey 2 supports 26 languages (truly a feat) but Helldivers 2 only supports 14. You'll find lots of variance here depending on studio, budget and scope. Starfield likely has a larger script than the other 3 games combined.