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Betting Time 2022 Edition: Nintendo Switch Lifetime Expectations (Worldwide)

Tbone5189

Tbone5189

Member
Scholar
Once again that time of year! Simple question, where will Nintendo Switch End up at lifetime?

It’s currently over 93mil as of Sept with a holiday quarter that should break the 100mil mark by end of Dec (we shall know next Quarterly report). It has at least 1 more Fiscal Year of selling with NSW2 possibly releasing anywhere between Nov 2022 - Nov 2024. Of course you would have to go out and think of when the successor comes out and when will that sharp decline come for NSW yourself!

Anyways I’ll put down a couple of notes/takes for the predictions so go based on what you think overall! Let’s see how this pans out, have fun predicting InstallBase 😉

🗒 Notes 📝

+2022 will most likely be NSW software Peak Year
+Shortages are still a thing (japan excluding at the moment)
+2022 Hardware unless something happens should be no lower than 15mil imo
+Nintendo At least expects good hardware sales from OLED with the current lineup of 2022

+As of Sept 2021, PS4 is at 116.6mil. In the same timeframe as NSW (end of dec) PS4 was at 86.8mil (NSW being at least 100mil)
+The NDS with lifetime of 153mil+ was at 125.1mil as the NSW is now

switch-family

Still will update more soon
 
Thinking 140 M-145M range. Japan will likely go over 30 million LTD but Switch sales will gradually decline in the next few years there. Might start to reach saturation point in Europe this year or even the US but lower stock availability might mean demand won't be completely met until 2023.

Would need a really big 2022 for me to think they might challenge the WW LTD for the PS2.
 
I'm thinking 135-140 but really depends on when they launch the switch 2 and what software is left for the switch.
 
I'm saying 160m+ because I expect the next model to be counted with the base one, like GB and GBC.
 
+140 million sales

+30-35 millions in japan

+ 50 million in americas

+ 55-60 million europe + others

2022 YTD shipments might be around 20 million (LTD +120 millions)
2023 YTD numbers (where next hardware will be release) will see a drop to 12.5 millions (LTD +132.5 millions)
2024 and 2025 YTD will be around 4 millions (LTD ~140 millions)
Finally, current switch models will be discontinued by 2026, where YTD would be 1-2 millions.
 
I'd say the biggest factor will be when Switch Next come around. If it's 2023, then I see Switch sales capping at 135M at most. But if Ampere and others are right and 2024 might be it's release date, then 140M+ isn't impossible. It also depends how well Switch hardware will fare after 2020 peak. This year, it sligthly declined, but gracefully so. How it will do this year?
 
Voted 160+. May be closer to 140-150 but I'm thinking one more late iteration comes like how 2ds got a 2017 new version. Watch it be switch lite OLED 🤠
 
Honestly there's many factors that can drastically change things

1.will there be a price cut?
2.will they launch Switch 2 sooner then later?
3.will they discontinue the switch as soon as the next one is released?

Also sales tracking for NDS/Highest console by region vs NSW data should be posted in the OP as an extra information i think:

All ranked by highest sales until NSW

Americas:
NDS : 59M+
PS2: 50M
Wii:48M
Gameboy:44M
Gameboy Advance: 41M
PS1:40M
NSW: 36M (forecast by Nintendo)

Japan:
NDS : 33M
Gameboy: 32M
3DS: 25M
PS2: 24M
NSW: 23M~

Europe (Unsure of this,someone check this please):
NDS:48M
PS2: 48M
PS1: 40M
NSW:23M

Other(Check this as well,also unsure if anything else sold higher in Other. PS2 probably did):
NDS: 14M
????????


I think Switch is going to go for 45M+ in Americas and 30M in Japan. Europe is hard. Other (China,Asia,Middle east) may help with a couple millions more as well.
 
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Switch sales will go belly up the millisecond Nintendo even thinks about announcing the succ so who knows. My guess in 145M
 
Nintendo Switch is probably at around 102 million as of January 1st, 2022 and in a year’s time, will hit 122m. I think that sometime this November or December, NS will pass PlayStation 4 and Game Boy, back to back.

Even with a pretty conservative guess, come 01-01-24, I can see Nintendo Switch’s total being 137m and should Nintendo skip a souped up NS model and go straight to Nintendo Switch 2 in November, 2024, I think the OG model(s) hits 145 million at that point.

If we’re looking at 147 million Nintendo Switch units out there on the console’s 8th anniversary and if Nintendo plans on releasing cross-gen software for two years into NS2’s life, keeps production lines open on Nintendo Switch Lite and base NS models, along with introducing significant price drops on the aforementioned, the console could have fairly strong legs for a couple more years, inching towards 160 million as it approaches turning 11.

PlayStation 2 launched in 2000 for $300 and dropped to $100 in 2009, three years into PS3’s life. Imagine Nintendo Switch Lite on the market for $80-$100 and Nintendo Switch at $150, all the while, there’s a Player’s Choice line of games that are permanently at $20 or $30 and new software coming out even while the more expensive Nintendo Switch 2 is available.

That’s a strong ecosystem and still provides a good reason for people to make an easy and affordable purchase of a base NS.

There’s the China factor, too. Nintendo Switch could high end, sell 210 million in my opinion, but that’s definitely on the optimistic side and it requires several things to go down just right.

No fewer than 140 will sell.
160 is very possible.
210 could, but requires plenty of if’s.

Also, the chip shortage affecting PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series more than Nintendo Switch, means that more NS units will be available to buy during these next two years. Having more stock available is only good if there's a reason to buy said hardware, but here we are in 2022 and there are a lot of compelling reasons to buy a Nintendo Switch. Instead of folks begrudgingly resorting to buy an NS when they can't find a PS5/XBS, they'll look at the cost benefit, be surrounded by the word of mouth of evergreens, and be buying into a still healthy, vibrant platform with NEW hit games being released and not something that's gonna die off in 6 months.

The stock issue of PS5 and XBS being a problem also means that third party companies are hanging onto PlayStation 4 and Xbox One for probably a little longer than they anticipated. By making cross-gen games for those systems because of their install bases, Nintendo Switch will be the recipient of some of those titles as well.

Yes, Nintendo Switch will also be hit by the chip shortage, but it's not competing for the same new components as the competition, which the latter are in competition with other new, non-video game platforms on the market. Let Nintendo take their time making a Nintendo Switch 2. Perhaps that thing will be a hybrid console released in November of 2024 and have Xbox Series S-like capabilities for $400. A 1080p screen, capable of putting out 4K when docked, but with the understanding that most higher profile games will be running at 1080p docked, all while being backwards compatible? That sounds like a dream machine and probably isn't too far off from reality.

So sign me up for Club 160+.
 
I'm going with 140-145 mil. This is with the expectation that the next Nintendo system comes out between Q3 2023-Q1 2024.

I expect a strong 2022 for the Switch with another 20~25 mil units sold, thanks to a strong software lineup this year. There will be rumblings of the next system or a "Pro" model, but nothing will be formally announced.

2023 is when sales will probably take a dive. Software lineup should be decent, but noticeable drop from 2022. I'm expecting 10~15 mil in unit sales in 2023. After the next system launches, there will be another 5~10 mil in sales, mostly in regions that are not saturated in Switch 1 sales like the US, but Nintendo will be pushing their next system hard.

Rumors will get stronger in 2023 about the next system, and Nintendo will announce their next system. If it is holiday 2023 release, expect it around E3 time (June). If it is a 2024 launch, it could be a brief announcement sometime late 2023 with a formal presentation in January of 2024. Yes, that would hurt Nintendo's holiday sales, but I really think Nintendo wants to get the next system out sometime in FY 2023. My gut says the launch will depend on if Nintendo has enough software ready for the next system (see: Switch 1 launch timeline)
 
135 million
- Japan: ~30 million
- Americas: ~52 million
- Europe: ~36 million
- ROTW: ~17 million

I'm basing this off of the Switch successor launching in late 2023.
 
Voted 130-135

However, there's sooo many factors that could drastically lower or increase that number. It's really a lucky guess at this point.

- Will Switch 1 be sold still when Switch 2 is out?
- Will Switch 2 not count towards Switch 1-sales, even Nintendo says It's the same eco-system?
- will there be price cuts?
- when will Switch 2 launch anyway

And more. If I go by my expectation of Switch 2 launching late 2022/early 2023, then we have at least one full calendar year of sales to go, plus a wind down-phase, assuming Switch 2 is sold for a premium and Switch 1-production isn't killed off immediately.
 
150-160, above Ps2
I am betting on 3 things
1) that Switch 2 comes out in 2024 (doesn't matter if in March or November)
2) it will almost match 2021 in sales
3) 2022 Software carries sales + it will have a new gen pokèmon in 2023
This is how I think it will go
March 2022 - 108M (assuming they meet their target for this year)
March 2023 - 130M (+22M)
March 2024 - 146M (+15-16M)
March 2025 - 155M (+8-9M)
March 2026 - 157M (+2M)
I'm probably being incredibly optimistic, but I want to believe it can make it!
 
didn't really change opinion, still expect something in the DS/PS2 range possible the best selling console of all time, so 150-170 million
 
expecting a new platform before the end of 2023. maybe that means even this year. but mainly thinking it's late 2023.

end of 2022: 120m
end of 2023: 135m
end of 2025: 140m (discontinued)

if a new system comes this year and it's more a gbc than a gba, then it'll hit over 160m units, sure.
 
Too many variables...

I'm expecting they to reach close to their revised projection (24mi), so 108 mi.

Even if they announce the successor sometime this year, the line up and the pandemic will prevent a drop like the DS got with the 3DS announcement (27 > 17). So another 20 mi or so for FY23, for roughly 128 mi total, assuming the shortage doesn't hit them too hard.

Successor releasing 23H1, I would put 15 millions for FY24 and onwards. Making it roughly 142 mi. Then I add a 10 mi or so error margin, to account a different release window and Nintendo being a lot more/less aggressive with OG deals and transitioning users to the successor than I'm predicting.

So, my expected range is 132~152 right now. Voting on the middle ground 140-145 then.
 
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Time to dig out my old Resetera post from way back in 2017 again:
Switch: 160 million. Surprised at the estimates here, but you folks are underestimating the Switch...again.
A couple things to consider:

-we haven't been able to accurately gauge demand for the Switch yet because of supply issues. Yet despite that, Switch has managed to snag the top hardware spot many times over. When supply is finally there, it wouldn't surprise me to see the Switch start selling similar to the DS.

-Whilst having a very strong launch year sales and quality wise, Nintendo has used only 1 of its biggest brands to sell the Switch(Mario). The other series released have overperformed compared to earlier installments(Zelda, Splatoon). This bodes VERY well for when Nintendo decides to launch Pokemon and Animal Crossing. However, this may also mean smaller series like Luigi's Mansion, Fire Emblem and Tomodachi Collection are poised to overperform similar to Zelda and Splatoon. This significantly expands the amount of BIG titles that can keep up momentum.

-Switch didn't start in the hole where the 3DS started, sales wise. That means that any revision, price cut, new bundle, colours, etc. can only add to a product that people already desire. It means that all those 'tricks' can only extend the ceiling of the Switch in terms of LTD sales.

With the 3DS you always had the sense that it sold despite the product itself being so undesirable. As if all the revisions, price cuts, etc. were to obscure the main usp's itself(2DS says hi!). In fact I think it says a lot about your product when you need a price cut of almost half in order to get people to buy it.

Switch will never have these issues. Even at $300, people actually WANT it. Badly. (compared to the 3DS's lower entry price of $250). Every pricecut that gets it lower then that will only spur demand back to the levels we have now.

The above are (some of) the reasons I expect Switch to very, very high.
Click to expand...
 
Do we know exactly how much the PS2 sold? Going by the notes in Wikipedia:



PlayStation 2: 155 million units sold as of March 31, 2012.[22] It was discontinued worldwide on January 4, 2013.[23]

Maybe 156 millions? I wish some investor or journalist asked Sony.

Anyway, my vote is 150-160.
 
This poll makes my vote easy, 160mil+. Switch has been sold out in the US for months, and it still hasn't even had a price cut yet. Also number of software titles continues to increase every fiscal year and will likely do so next fiscal year as well. So many green lights on Switch. It should be at about 108m at the end of the current fiscal year, and then it can coast another 52m+ easily after that.

I'm just glad you didn't make 160-170m and 170m+ two different options in the poll. Then I would have actually had a hard time choosing.
 
Im saying low 150. Seeing it selling 110-120 at current price and the rest after price cut, which it hasn't received
 
Eddy said:
Do we know exactly how much the PS2 sold? Going by the notes in Wikipedia:



PlayStation 2: 155 million units sold as of March 31, 2012.[22] It was discontinued worldwide on January 4, 2013.[23]

Maybe 156 millions? I wish some investor or journalist asked Sony.

Anyway, my vote is 150-160.
Click to expand...
Only more recent data i can find is from statista putting it at 157.68M
 
Himura Kenshin said:
I went for 160mil+. Until I see some serious signs of slowing down I have no reason to think otherwise at the moment.
Click to expand...
Although I don’t know if I would go that high, I agree about having to see serious signs of a slow down before I say anything less than 150M.
 
I'm not sure how anyone can pick options below 135 mil based on what I posted on Era.

Saicho said:
Also, if you want to use DS as example for falling off the cliff, you should align the numbers correctly. After 20 quarters, DS was at 113.48 mils while Switch is at 102 mil est. DS ends at 154.02 mil and with Nintendo carbon copying their NDS product roadmap for Switch, we get 138.42 mil for Switch by using the same %.

Let's also consider PS4 whose late life cycle was cut short by PS5. It was at 86 mil as of November 18, 2018 which is a little over 20 quarters after launch and it was at 116.6 mil in the last Sony quarterly report. Taking the same % for Switch and it will end with... 138.29 mils.

While I agree there is always a chance for apocalypse to happen or I can get hit by lightening, it would be close to impossible for Switch to end below 130 mil unless you are expecting Switch to have a historical decline that no console has experienced before.
Click to expand...
 
I think it will challenge PS2/DS. There's no signs of slowing down and stuff like BOTW2/Splatoon 3 are confirmed and 3D Mario/Mario Kart 9 can't be that far behind considering when those games released.
 
Where's this expectation that the Switch 2 is launching as early as this holiday or even 2023 coming from? Furukawa stated Switch was in the middle of its life span last year. I'm aware of the Bloomberg report but I'm confident that's the revision we have all been waiting for. It just boggles my mind that you guys are expecting this to have a shorter lifespan than the 3DS.

2017 - 2021: 102m
2022 (Revision + HW and SW Price cut): 23m / 125m
2023: 17m / 142m
2024 (Succesor): 7m / 149m
2025: 3m / 152m
2026-2029: 2m / 154m

Will end up just short or a hair above DS and less than 3m short of PS2. If the successor were to come out in 2025 or Nintendo shits the bed with Switch 2 then it's definitely going to make it.
 
Tbone5189 said:
If its closer to 130mil it’s understandable but should be nowhere near 120mil imo. Switch would have to collapse this Upcoming FY and NSW2 would need to release holiday 2022
Click to expand...
Opps, I read 93M but that was only up to Sept. So it must be at least 105M now. Give +25M for upcoming FY, I think we're looking at 130 min, probably 140 then. Successor in March 2023, can't see it any longer than that.
 
appleofenlightenment said:
Opps, I read 93M but that was only up to Sept. So it must be at least 105M now. Give +25M for upcoming FY, I think we're looking at 130 min, probably 140 then. Successor in March 2023, can't see it any longer than that.
Click to expand...

On the safe side it should be 101mil+, next FY could be anywhere between 17mil-22mil imo
 
Eddy said:
Do we know exactly how much the PS2 sold?
Click to expand...

Between 159.2m and 161.9m​

www.resetera.com

What was the lifetime sales of the PS2? Not 158m [Update: Between 159.2m and 161.9m]

So I saw this tweet just earlier: I went to take a look at the lifetime sales of the PS2 on Wikipedia. On this page it says 155 million and the citations don't give that number. I went to this page that says 158 million, gives the same citations but it doesn't give that number. I then tried...
www.resetera.com www.resetera.com
 
PillFencer said:

Between 159.2m and 161.9m​

www.resetera.com

What was the lifetime sales of the PS2? Not 158m [Update: Between 159.2m and 161.9m]

So I saw this tweet just earlier: I went to take a look at the lifetime sales of the PS2 on Wikipedia. On this page it says 155 million and the citations don't give that number. I went to this page that says 158 million, gives the same citations but it doesn't give that number. I then tried...
www.resetera.com www.resetera.com
Click to expand...
This seems way to high, but let's assume it's at 160M, could Switch reach it if the successor releases in november 2024?

There's definitely going to be a Pokèmon gen 9 on Switch by 2023 and probably a gen 5 remake by 2024 + a new Mario Kart + whatever the next big hit after 2022 will be, is that enough to give it a boost for a couple years and make it end up at 160M?
 
PillFencer said:

Between 159.2m and 161.9m​

www.resetera.com

What was the lifetime sales of the PS2? Not 158m [Update: Between 159.2m and 161.9m]

So I saw this tweet just earlier: I went to take a look at the lifetime sales of the PS2 on Wikipedia. On this page it says 155 million and the citations don't give that number. I went to this page that says 158 million, gives the same citations but it doesn't give that number. I then tried...
www.resetera.com www.resetera.com
Click to expand...
There's also the PSX numbers you can add on top so it's actually a little higher even. lol.

Although then we could go back and add iQue numbers for different consoles (GBA, DS, 3DS) as well as other manufacturer variants (Twin Famicom to NES, Panasonic Q to Gamecube, etc). Actually are Tencent Switch numbers included in Nintendo's totals?
 
fiendcode said:
Actually are Tencent Switch numbers included in Nintendo's totals?
Click to expand...
Yes as per Nintendo's Q&A. they're included on Others IIRC. it sold about 3M to date with little games launched and OLED verison just launched a few days ago (no Lite yet)
 
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