Betting Time 2022 Edition: Nintendo Switch Lifetime Expectations (Worldwide)

[liverpop]

Signs that we still have 3 years to go before Switch 2.

No price drop yet.
Mario Kart 8D dlc.
No software budget line.
Nintendo said we are just over halfway of Switch lifespan.
Stilling selling like hotcake.

Definitely 150m+.

 

[menx64]

So.... 150 is a lock I guess now.

 

[Old sorta fan]

And with no price cut, too.

 

[War Inquisitor]

150-160, above Ps2
I am betting on 3 things
1) that Switch 2 comes out in 2024 (doesn't matter if in March or November)
2) it will almost match 2021 in sales
3) 2022 Software carries sales + it will have a new gen pokèmon in 2023
This is how I think it will go
March 2022 - 108M (assuming they meet their target for this year)
March 2023 - 130M (+22M)
March 2024 - 146M (+15-16M)
March 2025 - 155M (+8-9M)
March 2026 - 157M (+2M)
I'm probably being incredibly optimistic, but I want to believe it can make it!

So far it's going almost how I predicted. Still betting above Ps2, but I might say 160M+ if they announce a Pro and it's counted toward total sales.

 

[Torpoleon]

I could definitely see it surpassing the PS2. with MK8 DX DLC lasting until the end of next year, I can't see a Switch successor launching until Holiday 2024 at the earliest. Honestly, could see it even being 2025. The longer they wait, the higher the odds of Switch outselling PS2!

 

[BTB123]

There's no way it's not reaching 150M.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

So.... 150 is a lock I guess now.

Lock is too strong. Right now it's about 17 million behind the DS. If it were to end 17 million behind the DS, it would fail to reach 140.

EDIT: To expand on this a bit. Imagine you're looking at DS after quarter 21. It's hitting 125 million! Still selling over 25m/year! Tracking nearly 40 million ahead of PS2! Why doubt it would end up passing PS2 easily? But things happened, and it didn't.

 

[silvergun]

Lock is too strong. Right now it's about 17 million behind the DS. If it were to end 17 million behind the DS, it would fail to reach 140.

EDIT: To expand on this a bit. Imagine you're looking at DS after quarter 21. It's hitting 125 million! Still selling over 25m/year! Tracking nearly 40 million ahead of PS2! Why doubt it would end up passing PS2 easily? But things happened, and it didn't.

Both your point of view and War Inquisitor's road map are fair and good points.

Thing is, yeah stuff happen. We do care about the record, but Nintendon't. They can very well kill all the Switch production line 9 months after a successfull launch of a backward-compatible successor. Or just let the OG Switch with a 2DS or DSLite XL type of form factors.

 

[Nintendianajones64]

Easily over 200+ million with a new model.

 

[Drblitzk]

150 sounds about right

 

[Eddy]

Anyway, my vote is 150-160.

There used to be a poll in this thread
Has anyone changed opinions? I think 150M is the floor now, I hope the Switch can reach 160M.

(This was the newest thread I could find about NSW lifetime hardware predictions)

 

[Djehuty]

A lot of this early thread aged pretty badly.

I’m just gonna expect for the switch and it’s successor to never ever have a steep decline yoy now.

 

[Eddy]

Current Switch HW sales: 132.46M

Sales breakdown prediction:
At the end of the fiscal year (March 31)
FY 2024= 142M
FY 2025= 152M
FY 2026= 157M
FY 2027= 160M (production may end here, 10 years of sales)

What do you think?

 

[Aostia82]

Current Switch HW sales: 132.46M

Sales breakdown prediction:
At the end of the fiscal year (March 31)
FY 2024= 142M
FY 2025= 152M
FY 2026= 157M
FY 2027= 160M (production may end here, 10 years of sales)

What do you think?

Too high to me
I see them dropping to 9mil next FY, 4mil FY'26 and a couple of in their tale

 

[Eddy]

Too high to me
I see them dropping to 9mil next FY, 4mil FY'26 and a couple of in their tale

Yeah, It is an optimistic prediction, I wanted to show a path to 160M in a 10 year cycle

In the end, Switch could sell for 9 or 11 years, if I was a betting man I would choose 158M today, but thats less fun to me

 

[Ghostsonplanets]

I can see it surpassing DS. Specially now that we have hard confirmation that Nintendo won't stop manufacturing like Sony did with PS4. But surpassing PS2 will be a tall order.

I guess it depends on the strength, popularity and quality of the cross-gen games. If Switch still keeps receiving something like Pokémon Black/White Remake or even Pokémon Gen 10, I can see it still pushing a respectable amount of sales.

 

[Meriadock]

If they price cut next year, who knows!