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So far it's going almost how I predicted. Still betting above Ps2, but I might say 160M+ if they announce a Pro and it's counted toward total sales.150-160, above Ps2
I am betting on 3 things
1) that Switch 2 comes out in 2024 (doesn't matter if in March or November)
2) it will almost match 2021 in sales
3) 2022 Software carries sales + it will have a new gen pokèmon in 2023
This is how I think it will go
March 2022 - 108M (assuming they meet their target for this year)
March 2023 - 130M (+22M)
March 2024 - 146M (+15-16M)
March 2025 - 155M (+8-9M)
March 2026 - 157M (+2M)
I'm probably being incredibly optimistic, but I want to believe it can make it!
Lock is too strong. Right now it's about 17 million behind the DS. If it were to end 17 million behind the DS, it would fail to reach 140.So.... 150 is a lock I guess now.
Lock is too strong. Right now it's about 17 million behind the DS. If it were to end 17 million behind the DS, it would fail to reach 140.
EDIT: To expand on this a bit. Imagine you're looking at DS after quarter 21. It's hitting 125 million! Still selling over 25m/year! Tracking nearly 40 million ahead of PS2! Why doubt it would end up passing PS2 easily? But things happened, and it didn't.
Current Switch HW sales: 132.46M
Sales breakdown prediction:
At the end of the fiscal year (March 31)
FY 2024= 142M
FY 2025= 152M
FY 2026= 157M
FY 2027= 160M (production may end here, 10 years of sales)
What do you think?
Yeah, It is an optimistic prediction, I wanted to show a path to 160M in a 10 year cycleToo high to me
I see them dropping to 9mil next FY, 4mil FY'26 and a couple of in their tale