Predictions for Top 10 Nintendo Switch Games Lifetime in ORDER (Read OP!)

[BTB123]

1. Mario Kart 8 Deluxe 70M
2. Animal Crossing: New Horizons 48M
3. Super Smash Bros. Ultimate 34M
4. The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild 33M
5. Pokémon Scarlet/Violet 32M
6. Super Mario Odyssey 28M
7. Pokémon Sword/Shield 27M
8. The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom 26M
9. Nintendo Switch Sports 22M
10. Super Mario Party 20M

I'm expecting a lot of Switch Sports and I think some people here expect a bit to much from Legends Arceus.

Updating with my current expectations:

1. Mario Kart 8 Deluxe 69M
2. Animal Crossing: New Horizons 48M
3. The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild 38M
4. Super Smash Bros. Ultimate 36M
5. The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom 33M
6. Pokémon Scarlet/Violet 32M
7. Super Mario Odyssey 30M
8. Pokémon Sword/Shield 27M
9. Super Mario Party 22M
10. New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe 21M

11. Nintendo Switch Sports 20M
12. Mario Party Superstars 18M
13. Ring Fit Adventure 17M
14. Pokémon Legends: Arceus 17M
15. Super Mario 3D World + Bowser's Fury 16M
16. Pokémon Let's Go, Pikachu! and Let's Go, Evee! 16M
17. Pokémon Brilliant Diamond/Shining Pearl 15.5M
18. Splatoon 3 15M
19. Luigi's Mansion 3 15M
20. Splatoon 2 14M
21. Super Mario Maker 10M
22. Kirby and the Forgotten Land 9M
23. The Legend of Zelda: Link's Awakening 7.5M

 

[Wockio]

I have revised my top 10:

1. Mario Kart 8 Deluxe (72M)
2. Animal Crossing: New Horizons (50M)
3. Super Smash Bros. Ultimate (37M)
4. The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild (36M)
5. Super Mario Odyssey (30M)
6. Pokémon Scarlet and Violet (29M)
7. The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom (28M)
8. Pokémon Sword and Shield (27M)
9. Super Mario Party (23M)
10. New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe (20M)

New top 10, and might as well try to predict every 10M+ seller:

1. Mario Kart 8 Deluxe (75M)
2. Animal Crossing: New Horizons (50M)
3. The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild (40M)
4. Super Smash Bros. Ultimate (39M)
5. Super Mario Odyssey (33M)
6. The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom (30M)
7. Pokemon Scarlet and Violet (29M)
8. Pokemon Sword and Shield (28M)
9. New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe (24M)
10. Super Mario Party (23M)
11. Mario Party Superstars (21M)
12. Super Mario 3D World + Bowser's Fury (20M)
13. Nintendo Switch Sports (19M)
14. Luigi's Mansion 3 (18M)
15. Ring Fit Adventure (18M)
16. Pokémon Legends Arceus (17M)
17. Pokémon Let's Go Pikachu and Let's Go Eevee (17M)
18. Pokémon Brilliant Diamond and Shining Pearl (16M)
19. Splatoon 2 (15M)
20. Splatoon 3 (14M)
21. Super Mario Maker 2 (11M)
22. Kirby and the Forgotten Land (10M)

 

[Josh5890]

1st:ACNH
2nd:MK8D
3rd:SSBU
4th:BOTW
5th Pokemon Sw/Sh
6th: Super Mario Odyssey
7th: BOTW2
8th: Super Mario Party
9th: Pokemon D/P
10th: Ring Fit Adventure

I really wanted to throw Splatoon in there but I can't see 2 staying on that list with the likes of Pokemon and BOTW 2 still to come, and 3 might not have as long of legs depending on when Nintendo's next system releases.

Well, my top 5 would be looking really good if I flipped 1 and 2. I totally missed on the new Pokémon gen though. Let me try again lol.

1. MK8D
2. AC:NH
3. SSBU
4. BOTW
5. Pokémon S/V
6. Pokémon Sw/Sh
7. Mario: Odyssey
8. TotK
9. SMP
10. Ring Fit Adventure

 

[Catalyst]

The reveal of Super Mario Bros Wonder and TOTK’s massive launch are reason to revive this thread.

1. Mario Kart 8 Deluxe - 72 million
2. Animal Crossing New Horizons - 49 million
3. Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild - 36 million
4. Super Smash Bros Ultimate - 36 million
5. Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom - 31 million
6. Super Mario Bros Wonder - 30 million
7. Pokémon Scarlet and Violet - 29 million
8. Super Mario Odyssey - 29 million
9. Pokémon Sword and Shield - 27 million
10. Super Mario Party - 21 million

At this point it’s safe to say any game that could make the top 10 has already been announced. Nintendo simply doesn’t have any potential 20m+ franchises left that aren’t on Switch yet, so the remaining questions are where TOTK and the new Mario will end up.

 

[Wockio]

1. Mario Kart 8 Deluxe (75M)
2. Animal Crossing: New Horizons (50M)
3. Super Smash Bros. Ultimate (39M)
4. The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild (36M)
5. The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom (33M)
6. Super Mario Odyssey (30M)
7. Pokémon Scarlet and Violet (29M)
8. Pokémon Sword and Shield (28M)
9. Super Mario Bros. Wonder (25M)
10. Super Mario Party (22M)
11. New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe (19M)
12. Mario Party Superstars (18M)
13. Super Mario 3D World + Bowser's Fury (17M)
14. Nintendo Switch Sports (17M)
15. Ring Fit Adventure (17M)
16. Pokémon Legends: Arceus (16M)
17. Pokémon Let's Go Pikachu and Let's Go Eevee (16M)
18. Pokémon Brilliant Diamond and Shining Pearl (15M)
19. Luigi's Mansion 3 (15M)
20. Splatoon 2 (14M)
21. Splatoon 3 (13M)
22. Super Mario Maker 2 (11M)

 

[BTB123]

I'm going to update my whole list at a later point. I'm expecting Super Mario Bros. Wonder to sell over 30M, so at least 7th relative to my current list.

 

[Maluigi]

The reveal of Super Mario Bros Wonder and TOTK’s massive launch are reason to revive this thread.

1. Mario Kart 8 Deluxe - 72 million
2. Animal Crossing New Horizons - 49 million
3. Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild - 36 million
4. Super Smash Bros Ultimate - 36 million
5. Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom - 31 million
6. Super Mario Bros Wonder - 30 million
7. Pokémon Scarlet and Violet - 29 million
8. Super Mario Odyssey - 29 million
9. Pokémon Sword and Shield - 27 million
10. Super Mario Party - 21 million

At this point it’s safe to say any game that could make the top 10 has already been announced. Nintendo simply doesn’t have any potential 20m+ franchises left that aren’t on Switch yet, so the remaining questions are where TOTK and the new Mario will end up.

Imagine telling someone in 2013-2015 that the next Animal Crossing and a port of MK8 combined would have the chance to break 120M/PS4 sales.

 

[Eddy]

Will update my list because Super Mario Bros Wonder got announced, so I can take NSBMUD from the list

I will keep my really optimistic prediction for SW & HW totals by the end of March 31, 2024; but I will make some changes to some games and I will not update my list anymore (I will check the results on May 2024) :

1. MK8 Deluxe: 64m
2. AC NH: 45m
3. BOTW: 34m
4. SSBU: 33m
5. Pokemon SV: 30m
6. SMO: 29m
7. TOTK: 27m
8. Pokemon SWSH: 27m
9. Mario Wonder: 23m
10. SMP: 21m

TOP 10 SW TOTAL: 333m
Hardware at that date: 140m

 

[Eternium]

1st: MK8D
2nd: AC:NH
3rd: TLOZ:BOTW
4th: SSBU
5th: Odyssey
6th: TLOZ:BOTW2
7th: Pokemon SwSh
8th: *MineCraft, but won’t get numbers* Super Mario Party
9th: Pokemon BD/SP
10th: Splatoon 2

I am guessing that we’ll get Nintendo Selects and All-In-One packages for these games that keep them moving units. If Splatoon 2 doesn’t get one, RFA will easily surpass it even if there is a new iteration of RFA.

I definitely did not see the decay of BD/SP coming nor did I think there would be a new Pokémon iteration, but otherwise I was pretty spot on.

Almost two years later and now I’m thinking:
1. MK8D - 62M
2. AC:NH - 48M
3. SSBU - 40M
4. TLOZ:BOTW - 36M
5. Odyssey - 30.5M
6. TLOZ:TOTK - 30M
7. Pokemon S/V - 29M
8. Mario Wonder - 25M
9. Minecraft - 25M
10. Super Mario Party - 23M

 

[Torpoleon]

I'd like to revise my 10m sellers list:

1. MK8 DX: 70 million
2. ACNH: 50 million
3. SSBU: 37.5 million
4. BOTW: 36 million
5. SMO: 31 million
6. TOTK: 30 million
7. SV: 29 million
8. SWSH: 28.5 million
9. SMP: 22 million
10. NSMBU: 21 million
11. RFA: 20 million
12. Switch Sports: 18 million
13. Arceus: 17.7 million
14. LGPE: 16.7 million
15. BDSP: 16 million
16. LM3: 15 million
17. Splatoon 3: 15 million
18. Mario Party Superstars: 14 million
19. 3D World + BF: 14 million
20. Splatoon 2: 13.45 million
21. Kirby FL: 12 million
22. Mario Maker 2: 10 million

Adjusted in part because I feel like the successor will now launch in 2024 as opposed to 2025. Also because of the recent financial results. BDSP has fallen off a cliff and Arceus & LGPE probably will as well. Arceus could've been a 20 million seller if they spaced out the releases, but I at least see it narrowly passing DP. I also see LGPE narrowly passing all 3DS Pokemon games. I see BDSP narrowly passing BW. Mario Maker 2 will probably just barely squeak past 10m.

Switch Sports could reach 20m. I could even see it reaching 20m and RFA not reaching 20m possibly. Still not sold on SV reaching 30m (I definitely don't think SWSH will). Either way, I still feel like the top 10 will have 20m sales each. Even if Switch Sports & RFA miss it, NSMBU should still reach it, SMP should reach it possibly next year and TOTK should reach it easily (like before the end of this year if I had to guess).

Updating my prediction for 10m sellers:

1. MK8 DX: 70 million
2. ACNH: 50 million
3. SSBU: 37.5 million
4. BOTW: 36 million
5. SMO: 31 million
6. TOTK: 30 million
7. SV: 29 million
8. SWSH: 28.5 million
9. SMBW: 25 million
10. SMP: 22 million
11. NSMBU: 20 million
12. RFA: 18.5 million
13. Switch Sports: 18 million
14. Arceus: 17.7 million
15. LGPE: 16.7 million
16. BDSP: 16 million
17. LM3: 15 million
18. Splatoon 3: 15 million
19. Mario Party Superstars: 14 million
20. 3D World + BF: 14 million
21. Splatoon 2: 13.45 million
22. Kirby FL: 12 million
23. Mario Maker 2: 10 million

Didn't change too much. I believe that SMBW will sell at least 25 million. Could even reach 30 million but I think it's too early to predict that. As a result of SMBW, I lowered NSMBU DX's amount but could still see it hitting 20 million. I think RFA will fall short though. SMRPG could potentially land in the 10 million club, but it's too early to predict that as well. Also, this list does not include games that haven't been announced. A new DK game could easily be a 10 million seller. I also feel that we are going to get one more Pokemon remake, so that would also be a 10 million seller. The Switch has the potential to have over 25 games sell over 10 million copies each!

 

[Wockio]

75m - Mario Kart 8 Deluxe
51m - Animal Crossing: New Horizons
40m - Super Smash Bros. Ultimate
39m - The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild
36m - The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom
33m - Super Mario Odyssey
29m - Pokémon Scarlet and Violet
28m - Pokémon Sword and Shield
25m - Super Mario Bros. Wonder
23m - Super Mario Party

 

[Torpoleon]

Updating my prediction for 10m sellers:

1. MK8 DX: 70 million
2. ACNH: 50 million
3. SSBU: 37.5 million
4. BOTW: 36 million
5. SMO: 31 million
6. TOTK: 30 million
7. SV: 29 million
8. SWSH: 28.5 million
9. SMBW: 25 million
10. SMP: 22 million
11. NSMBU: 20 million
12. RFA: 18.5 million
13. Switch Sports: 18 million
14. Arceus: 17.7 million
15. LGPE: 16.7 million
16. BDSP: 16 million
17. LM3: 15 million
18. Splatoon 3: 15 million
19. Mario Party Superstars: 14 million
20. 3D World + BF: 14 million
21. Splatoon 2: 13.45 million
22. Kirby FL: 12 million
23. Mario Maker 2: 10 million

Didn't change too much. I believe that SMBW will sell at least 25 million. Could even reach 30 million but I think it's too early to predict that. As a result of SMBW, I lowered NSMBU DX's amount but could still see it hitting 20 million. I think RFA will fall short though. SMRPG could potentially land in the 10 million club, but it's too early to predict that as well. Also, this list does not include games that haven't been announced. A new DK game could easily be a 10 million seller. I also feel that we are going to get one more Pokemon remake, so that would also be a 10 million seller. The Switch has the potential to have over 25 games sell over 10 million copies each!

Updating:

1. MK8 DX: 75 million
2. ACNH: 50 million
3. SSBU: 38.5 million
4. BOTW: 38 million
5. TOTK: 33.5 million
6. SMO: 33 million
7. SMBW: 31.5 million
8. SV: 29 million
9. SWSH: 28.5 million
10. SMP: 22 million
11. NSMBU: 20 million
12. RFA: 18.5 million
13. Switch Sports: 18 million
14. Arceus: 17.7 million
15. LGPE: 16.7 million
16. BDSP: 16 million
17. LM3: 15 million
18. Splatoon 3: 15 million
19. Mario Party Superstars: 14 million
20. 3D World + BF: 14 million
21. Splatoon 2: 13.8 million
22. Kirby FL: 12 million
23. Mario Maker 2: 10 million

This is obviously based on announced titles. Mario RPG is a big question mark for me. For now, I'll assume that it won't hit 10m. If a new DK game is confirmed, that could be an easy 10m seller, as would another Pokemon game. I don't see anything else hitting 10m, like Link's Awakening.

 

[BTB123]

Updating with my current expectations:

1. Mario Kart 8 Deluxe 69M - 75M
2. Animal Crossing: New Horizons 48M - 48M
3. The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild 38M - 38M
4. Super Smash Bros. Ultimate 36M - 37M
5. The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom 33M - 36M
6. Super Mario Bros. Wonder 35M
7. Pokémon Scarlet/Violet 32M - 30M
8. Super Mario Odyssey 30M - 32M
9. Pokémon Sword/Shield 27M - 27M
10. Super Mario Party 22M - 21M

11. New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe 21M - 22M
12. Nintendo Switch Sports 20M - 17M
13. Mario Party Superstars 18M - 18M
14. Ring Fit Adventure 17M - 17M
15. Pokémon Legends: Arceus 17M - 17M
16. Super Mario 3D World + Bowser's Fury 16M - 18M
17. Pokémon Let's Go, Pikachu! and Let's Go, Evee! 16M - 16M
18. Pokémon Brilliant Diamond/Shining Pearl 15.5M - 16M
19. Splatoon 3 15M - 16M
20. Luigi's Mansion 3 15M - 15M
21. Splatoon 2 14M - 14M
22. Super Mario Maker 10M - 10M
23. Kirby and the Forgotten Land 9M - 9M
24. The Legend of Zelda: Link's Awakening 7.5M - 7.5M

Bolded numbers are my now current expectations. Not everything changed.
I'm not convined anymore that S/V will surpass R/G/B, but the DLC could still give it a significant boost.

Edit: added in SMBW, had somehow forgotten it at first. 35M is my current cautious minimum expectation.

 

[zroid]

it really cannot be overstated how ridiculous Mario Kart 8 Deluxe is

 

[Eddy]

Small piece of trivia:
Wii TOP 10 Software sales total = 291.03
Switch TOP 10 Software sales total = 296.04

As of September 30 2023, Switch SW TOP 10 as finally surpassed Wii SW TOP 10!

 

[Tbone5189]

Small piece of trivia:
Wii TOP 10 Software sales total = 291.03
Switch TOP 10 Software sales total = 296.04

As of September 30 2023, Switch SW TOP 10 as finally surpassed Wii SW TOP 10!

that bundled game really helps wii out

 

[Eddy]

that bundled game really helps wii out

Absolutely, the Switch still overcame that in the end :O