Switch 2/Pro/Deluxe reveal-to-release speculation.

[ReddDreadtheLead]

That's how ridiculously late Nintendo have left the announcement of Switch 2.

How exactly is it late? That implies there was some deadline to meet.

They need a significant amount of lead-time from announcement to release in order to get stakeholders on-board and 3rd party support going prior to launch.

Which announcement? Announcement of the project or official unveiling of the console?

Because that’s not what they did at all for the 3DS. They announced it near the end of FY03/2010 and the system released less than a year later.

The system had a suite of third party games to lead with, but a poor first party slate at the time. How do you think these games came to be? They were made in less than a year? Because they certainly didn’t look like rushed jobs.

Devs get briefed privately about future hardware from the platform holder years before the system ever hits the market, key partners to be honest. They are lent property that does not belong to them so which they develop software for.

 

[SoonyXboneUhh]

I can’t imagine a less likely scenario than a mid-2023 announcement for a 2024 release, killing sales during holiday 2023.

Strong disagree.

They might not have stock anymore and phase out the old one.
So it's beneficial. Xbox did the same. Playstation to a lesser extent.
But it did hurt them, as it was corona and lockdowns with more demand than supply. They could've sold more.
I don't buy into the killing sales of the old generation argument. Enough will still be sold.

 

[VashDaStampede]

They might not have stock anymore

What? This makes no sense. They aren’t going to “run out” of Mariko before Xmas 2023.

Let’s make one thing clear: chip shortage is mostly over for most nodes. There are few exception. The companies who believed in (and argued for) a multi-year chip shortage proved to be idiots, and we are months away for a chip over-supply.

 

[SoonyXboneUhh]

What? This makes no sense. They aren’t going to “run out” of Mariko before Xmas 2023.

Let’s make one thing clear: chip shortage is mostly over for most nodes. There are few exception. The companies who believed in (and argued for) a multi-year chip shortage proved to be idiots, and we are months away for a chip over-supply.

If they stop production in mid 2023 like Xbox did, they will run low

 

[BTB123]

The poll result is beyond baffling.

 

[Tokuiten]

The poll result is beyond baffling.

Shows what people want.

Wonder how such poll would end on more mainstream platforms. "Do you want a Switch 2 or are you happy with Switch 1 for another year?"

 

[VashDaStampede]

Earlier in the thread
1. No big titles planned most TOTK
2. Maybe a revision, but no new gen
3. Hopes = crushed

As someone who follow all the news, I have no idea what’s going to happen. But I am losing confidence in us getting it in 1H23.

 

[BTB123]

Shows what people want.

Wonder how such poll would end on more mainstream platforms. "Do you want a Switch 2 or are you happy with Switch 1 for another year?"

The question in the OP is, which scenario sounds the most realistic, not which one you want. The red scenario is not realistic at all. It's just nonsensical and there's no way anyone who actually genuinely thought it over comes to the honest conclusion that it is more realistic and likely for the Switch 2 to launch in 6 months from now than in holiday 2023 or March 2024.
I wrote a long post in this thread and what I want was not in any way taken into account, because it isn't supposed to matter. But bias always gets in the way of reason and then we end up with this poll result.

 

[VashDaStampede]

If they stop production in mid 2023 like Xbox did, they will run low

Why would they stop production of the console before the holiday? Where is the commercial logic in this?

 

[TonyBaduy]

The question in the OP is, which scenario sounds the most realistic, not which one you want. The red scenario is not realistic at all. It's just nonsensical and there's no way anyone who actually genuinely thought it over comes to the honest conclusion that it is more realistic and likely for the Switch 2 to launch in 6 months from now than in holiday 2023 or March 2024.
I wrote a long post in this thread and what I want was not in any way taken into account, because it isn't supposed to matter. But bias always gets in the way of reason and then we end up with this poll result.

Wasn't the Switch official unveiling to release like 6 months from one to the other? It certainly didn't take 1 year. As far as we know, the SoC is finalized and it should be entering mass manufacturing soon if it hasn't already. If Nintendo planned to release this in 2023 back in 2019-2020 there is no way for them to delay it to 2024 or 2025. There is also the leaks and confirmation by Bloomberg that Nintendo told 3rd Parties to get 4k ready games by this holiday/early next year, so I doubt they'll force them to sit on their finished games for over a year.

 

[BTB123]

Wasn't the Switch official unveiling to release like 6 months from one to the other? It certainly didn't take 1 year. As far as we know, the SoC is finalized and it should be entering mass manufacturing soon if it hasn't already. If Nintendo planned to release this in 2023 back in 2019-2020 there is no way for them to delay it to 2024 or 2025. There is also the leaks and confirmation by Bloomberg that Nintendo told 3rd Parties to get 4k ready games by this holiday/early next year, so I doubt they'll force them to sit on their finished games for over a year.

I missed the part where the Switch 2 was already officially revealed. And I also missed the part where I mentioned 2025.
We already had a codename for the Switch in 2015. For the Switch 2 on the other hand we don't. Nothing suggests a reveal happening before the end of this year.
Why would they say that they want the Switch to have a longer life but at the same time plan to do the opposite?
I don't buy everything that Bloomberg says.
To launch in May 2023 the Switch would already need to have entered mass manufacturing now. How are they gonna deal with it while having of certain parts.

Speculating about some leaks and all that stuff is a waste of time anyway.
In 2020 the pandemic started and everything was delayed but you're expecting them to release their most important product still on time or even earlier. 2023 is not just the first half.

 

[TonyBaduy]

I missed the part where the Switch 2 was already officially revealed. And I also missed the part where I mentioned 2025.
We already had a codename for the Switch in 2015. For the Switch 2 on the other hand we don't. Nothing suggests a reveal happening before the end of this year.
Why would they say that they want the Switch to have a longer life but at the same time plan to do the opposite?
I don't buy everything that Bloomberg says.
To launch in May 2023 the Switch would already need to have entered mass manufacturing now. How are they gonna deal with it while having of certain parts.

Speculating about some leaks and all that stuff is a waste of time anyway.
In 2020 the pandemic started and everything was delayed but you're expecting them to release their most important product still on time or even earlier. 2023 is not just the first half.

We only got it's codename as an assurance that Nintendo wouldn't stop making hardware because the Wii U was a colossal failure. The Switch reveal to release took around less than 6 months, they could and probably will do the same with Drake (codename of the SoC, which has fully leaked due to the Nvidia hack and recent Linux commits). I imagine Nintendo thought the 3DS was in the middle of it's life cycle by 2017, but we all know what happened to it, however Nintendo intended to keep it a live a while longer, people just moved on from it so fast that they couldn't keep it alive for too long. The pandemic didn't delay the launch of the PS5 or XBSS/X and I doubt it'll delay Drake's release. Lastly, we have no idea if it has or hasn't entered full manufacturing already, we only know the SoC is basically finished and neither Nvidia nor Nintendo will sit on it for long.

 

[SoonyXboneUhh]

Why would they stop production of the console before the holiday? Where is the commercial logic in this?

Because they need production capacity and lines for the new model ramp up.
Never in the history of transition was the last gen still at peak production while the new model was already made. And it saves money, when you clear shelf space, etc.
There are a lot of business reasons, why you want you get rid of your product before the next

 

[VashDaStampede]

Because they need production capacity and lines for the new model ramp up.
Never in the history of transition was the last gen still at peak production while the new model was already made. And it saves money, when you clear shelf space, etc.
There are a lot of business reasons, why you want you get rid of your product before the next

This is pretty poor logic imo. You’re arguing for them to cut production ahead of the holidays season but not launch until the following year.

Switch is no where near peak production. We will be lucky if they sell half of peak next year.

They don’t need to “save money and shelf space” ahead of holiday 2023 when new hardware won’t be out until 2024.

Sony/Xbox has new gens for the holidays. Plus, I don’t think Nintendo will stop selling Switch 1.

Once again, I can’t imagine a worse decision.

 

[Aostia82]

Shows what people want.

Wonder how such poll would end on more mainstream platforms. "Do you want a Switch 2 or are you happy with Switch 1 for another year?"

The more mainstream poll we have is the global worldwide market one

And looking at Switch sales even out of stock in some markets with 19mil forecasted for the FY we know how the market would reply to that question

If with mainstream instead you mean tech enthusiasts that bought the OG model day one, so almost 6 years ago, they would see as inevitabile a Switch pro for Xmas..'20.

 

[ILikeFeet]

The more mainstream poll we have is the global worldwide market one

And looking at Switch sales even out of stock in some markets with 19mil forecasted for the FY we know how the market would reply to that question

If with mainstream instead you mean tech enthusiasts that bought the OG model day one, so almost 6 years ago, they would see as inevitabile a Switch pro for Xmas..'20.

I think for a wider audience than tech enthusiasts, the virtues of a switch 2 would be apparent to them. "Switch in 4K and better graphics" and "better games that won't run on the current switch" would be convincing. that might be what held the PS4 Pro and One X back: they're upgraded systems, but not "new successors"

 

[ReddDreadtheLead]

If I’m not mistaken the PS2 and DS were operating at pretty “normal” capacity around the time of their respective successors launching. The PS2 remained for a while with a slow decline but the DS who was already in decline, selling about 17M for the FY11 that the 3DS was announced for, and then about 5M the following Fiscal Year.


So I’m a bit confused on the full capacity part of discussion. Historically at this stage they are operating at a much lower capacity for all consoles. How successful it is or not isn’t something they know several years how it’ll pan out, if it’ll hold or if it’ll Peter out quickly.

I don’t think Sony knew how successful the PS2 was possibly from the year the PS3 released. And with the switch I don’t think Nintendo expected it to be this successful. They expected the Wii U to do really well and we know that didn’t happen.

 

[JavelinR]

Orange if not latter. They should release when they have another strong exclusive launch year line set up and not a month sooner. That more than anything is what's proven to work. Nothing kills a Nintendo system faster than the perception it doesn't have games. And if you get that reputation in the first year it's hard to come back.

 

[Pancracio17]

Years before a successor hits market:

FC: 7.5 years
SFC: 6 years
N64: 5 years
GC: 5 years
Wii: 6 years
Wii U: 4.5 years

GB: 12 years
GBA: 3.5 years
DS: 6 years
3DS: 6 years

NSW: 6 years and counting...

Switch will hit its sixth year on March no? So still a bit left before its due. I do think its 7 years tops, stretching the gen as long as they can until spring 2024, but I do think it could be a bit earlier.

I mean, both the PS360 and the Xbone 4 gen lasted 7 years, so its not out of the ordinary now. Though the Xbone 4 gen specifically had Pro consoles extending the lifetime of the gen, no such thing here.

 

[mariodk18]

For people talking about lead time: the new 3DS was revealed Aug 29, 2014 and released Oct 11 that same year. That’s barely a month and a half. And for manufacturing heads up from insiders regarding hardware, Bloomberg published their “imminent” article on the OLED model with the 7 in screen from Samsung 4.5 months before launch. There’s still time before they have to begin manufacturing.

And remember that Nintendo was denying the existence of a new 3DS in 2014 all the way until they announced. My assumption is that Nintendo wants to at least get past the holiday shopping season so that any early potential rumors/denials won’t impact their end of year sales too much.

 

[Phenom08]

For people talking about lead time: the new 3DS was revealed Aug 29, 2014 and released Oct 11 that same year. That’s barely a month and a half. And for manufacturing heads up from insiders regarding hardware, Bloomberg published their “imminent” article on the OLED model with the 7 in screen from Samsung 4.5 months before launch. There’s still time before they have to begin manufacturing.

And remember that Nintendo was denying the existence of a new 3DS in 2014 all the way until they announced. My assumption is that Nintendo wants to at least get past the holiday shopping season so that any early potential rumors/denials won’t impact their end of year sales too much.

Those aren't new platforms, they are the same platforms with enhanced features.

 

[Tokuiten]

Those aren't new platforms, they are the same platforms with enhanced features.

The New 3DS was basically a new hardware generation, only held back by Nintendo choosing not develop much exclusive software for it.

 

[mariodk18]

Those aren't new platforms, they are the same platforms with enhanced features.

I had two points:
- that if Switch 2 were launching in May with TotK, they could theoretically wait until late March to announce it given history
- again assuming the same launch date, it’s not strange that we haven’t heard of manufacturing starting yet. That could begin between late this month and up to early January (just after the end of Japan’s holiday shopping season). Then that way they don’t have to field and deny questions from media and investors in the middle of their peak sales season.

 

[ReddDreadtheLead]

The New 3DS was basically a new hardware generation, only held back by Nintendo choosing not develop much exclusive software for it.

It really was not. It was the same architecture expanded upon, and same control scheme. It was no different from the PS4P or the XB1X. It didn’t add a new feature set or changed the control scheme.


Then again this is the same company that thought “hey let’s take this cube and attach a TV remote to it and call it a new gen console” without blinking.

But it was pretty clear with how they pushed it that it was not the same as the NEW3DS

 

[fiendcode]

Switch will hit its sixth year on March no? So still a bit left before its due. I do think its 7 years tops, stretching the gen as long as they can until spring 2024, but I do think it could be a bit earlier.

I mean, both the PS360 and the Xbone 4 gen lasted 7 years, so its not out of the ordinary now. Though the Xbone 4 gen specifically had Pro consoles extending the lifetime of the gen, no such thing here.

Switch is currently in it's 6th year. Next March will start it's 7th.

I think I agree on early 2024 but at the end of next FY. So like Feb or March basically.

 

[Phenom08]

The New 3DS was basically a new hardware generation, only held back by Nintendo choosing not develop much exclusive software for it.

It certainly was not and you are forgetting Nintendo will certainly have a new "gimmick" or "hook" for Switch 2. Revisions do not offer new ways to play like new platforms. That's how you can tell the difference between Nintendo platforms.

I had two points:
- that if Switch 2 were launching in May with TotK, they could theoretically wait until late March to announce it given history
- again assuming the same launch date, it’s not strange that we haven’t heard of manufacturing starting yet. That could begin between late this month and up to early January (just after the end of Japan’s holiday shopping season). Then that way they don’t have to field and deny questions from media and investors in the middle of their peak sales season.

I find it hard too believe they would start manufacturing just 5 months out of release and announcing a new platform with a new hook just two months out of release is certainly a new thing for Nintendo. Again revisions and new platforms aren't the same.

 

[mariodk18]

I find it hard to believe they would start manufacturing just 5 months out of release and announcing a new platform with a new hook just two months out of release is certainly a new thing for Nintendo. Again revisions and new platforms aren't the same.

Sounds like the original Switch to me.

 

[ReddDreadtheLead]

I find it hard too believe they would start manufacturing just 5 months out of release and announcing a new platform with a new hook just two months out of release is certainly a new thing for Nintendo. Again revisions and new platforms aren't the same.

A console production starting isn’t really fixed. XBox Series started in like early August and launched in November.


As for announcing a new platform it varies. But in all honesty they start announcing or talking about about it a few years before they even reveal it. And it’s by alluding of “prepping for the next generation” or “next gen set out for 20XX” or “for the subsequent platform” when the platform doesn’t come out for like 3 years or so.

 

[Phenom08]

Sounds like the original Switch to me.

Nope not at all but I guess we will just have to wait and see. I see you are already prepared to move the announcement back each month it doesn't get annouced. Already marking down March as a last resort if Jan and Feb don't happen. Are you giving up on May release if April and still no announcement?

 

[mariodk18]

Nope not at all but I guess we will just have to wait and see. I see you are already prepared to move the announcement back each month it doesn't get annouced. Already marking down March as a last resort if Jan and Feb don't happen. Are you giving up on May release if April and still no announcement?

Did they not fully detail the console and its software lineup a month and a half before release in mid January? And I don’t think we’ll hear about TotK or Switch 2 until after FE Engage at the earliest. I think March is more likely after Kirby, especially since both that month and April are empty.

And it’s not really about being “prepared” or “giving up”. I don’t have anyone to report to or answer to other than myself. You’re free to disagree with my prediction, but it’s no skin off my back if we go past May without new hardware.

I mean, we’re at the point where we are farther from the beginning of Switch’s life and closer to the next hardware. We’ve even heard (or haven’t heard) it from Furukawa himself: we are no longer in the midpoint of the system’s lifecycle. If that’s not the cue to start expecting the next thing, than I don’t know what is.

 

[Terrell]

Because they need production capacity and lines for the new model ramp up.
Never in the history of transition was the last gen still at peak production while the new model was already made. And it saves money, when you clear shelf space, etc.
There are a lot of business reasons, why you want you get rid of your product before the next

3 words: Game Boy Advance.
And while the data is harder to find, NES/Famicom was seemingly the same at the time, still killing it at retail (relative to the size of the market at the time) when SNES hit the scene.
The greater likelihood is that production on new hardware is not zero-sum but additive, as it almost always is with hardware transitions, especially transitions involving still-popular hardware.

It certainly was not and you are forgetting Nintendo will certainly have a new "gimmick" or "hook" for Switch 2. Revisions do not offer new ways to play like new platforms. That's how you can tell the difference between Nintendo platforms.

That was certainly Iwata’s way of doing things, radical new design features that become the focal point of new hardware.
Prior to him being president, more powerful new hardware with “new ways to play” being limited to additive controller revisions and optional peripherals was de rigueur under Yamauchi, with the analog stick and 3D being the most transformative.
As this will be the first new hardware that Iwata wasn’t involved in, it’s too early to consider what Furukawa’s Nintendo will do, but all expectations are that any new features will not detract from its primary hook and focal point of being a hybrid device, because consumers are clearly not disenchanted with that.

 

[fully engaged]

I still don't think the tech is ready for the Switch 2, so the longer Nintendo leave it the better it will be.

 

[ILikeFeet]

I still don't think the tech is ready for the Switch 2, so the longer Nintendo leave it the better it will be.

What isn't ready? The process node? The cpu/gpu architecture? Rendering technology? Because all of these have advanced a long way since 2015 when the TX1 released

 

[Notsowise]

Just so you know this puts you in the green pile still.

They really haven’t grown complacent, they just didn’t expect this success to be this good.

It’s not the first time they’ve done non-Christmas launches. They’ve done it multiple times really.

even on successful consoles.

Actually, they only go no Christmas when they are in though position.

The 1st DS, Switch after Wii U…

All companies always try to focus on Christmas. The only exception was really 3ds, where they were in comfortable position, unless the piracy put Nintendo in a though position.

Post automatically merged: Nov 20, 2022

What? This makes no sense. They aren’t going to “run out” of Mariko before Xmas 2023.

Let’s make one thing clear: chip shortage is mostly over for most nodes. There are few exception. The companies who believed in (and argued for) a multi-year chip shortage proved to be idiots, and we are months away for a chip over-supply.

What are you talking about? The wait line for cars in Brazil is 8 plus months.

Over suply? Are you crazy?

 

[VashDaStampede]

hat are you talking about? The wait line for cars in Brazil is 8 plus months.

Over suply? Are you crazy?

Just wait. It’s ending very fast.

 

[Uniomni]

I chose red because it makes the most sense to ME.

Saw a reply saying 2026-2027.....like really?

They'd deserve the mockery waiting a full ten years would get them if they pulled that.

Switch appears to be doing exceptionally well, even if it's now on the other side of the hill.

So release a successor that can still dine on 3rd party support because as the ps5/Xsx ramp up, the gulf between that and the Switch will seem that much wider.

Why sacrifice the inroads made with 3P to squeeze the last bit of blood from an old stone?

The successor should be out imo next year, 2024 at the latest.

Beyond that, they deserve the mockery, I repeat.

 

[Phenom08]

Did they not fully detail the console and its software lineup a month and a half before release in mid January? And I don’t think we’ll hear about TotK or Switch 2 until after FE Engage at the earliest. I think March is more likely after Kirby, especially since both that month and April are empty.

And it’s not really about being “prepared” or “giving up”. I don’t have anyone to report to or answer to other than myself. You’re free to disagree with my prediction, but it’s no skin off my back if we go past May without new hardware.

I mean, we’re at the point where we are farther from the beginning of Switch’s life and closer to the next hardware. We’ve even heard (or haven’t heard) it from Furukawa himself: we are no longer in the midpoint of the system’s lifecycle. If that’s not the cue to start expecting the next thing, than I don’t know what is.

So that was the first we heard of Switch? They annouced and acknowled Switch before detailing in January. You are predicting Nintendo will annouce and detail Switch successor in March and release in May. I'm just not so sure and I found it funny you are already including March. March and April are not empty, there is a blockbuster Movie releasing in that time period and yes that could effect hardware sales. We don't know if they have something planned alongside it like say a Mario special edition Switch Oled and/or Mario day sales on 3/10 for Mario day. If they had nothing then we would have probably had nothing in Jan, Kirby in Feb, and Fire Emblem in March. We are certainly at the end for Switch but this just to me seems rushed. Early 2023 is only being entertained because of Zelda.

Microsoft and Sony have already established longer life cycles, Nintendo has certainly followed suite. 7 years is now normal after 6 years was normal. Ps3 to Ps4 and Ps4 to Ps5 were both 7 years. Nintendo went from 5 years normally to 6 years normally with their home consoles. Wii to WiiU was 6 years and WiiU had a shorter life span for obvious reasons.

 

[Phenom08]

That was certainly Iwata’s way of doing things, radical new design features that become the focal point of new hardware.
Prior to him being president, more powerful new hardware with “new ways to play” being limited to additive controller revisions and optional peripherals was de rigueur under Yamauchi, with the analog stick and 3D being the most transformative.
As this will be the first new hardware that Iwata wasn’t involved in, it’s too early to consider what Furukawa’s Nintendo will do, but all expectations are that any new features will not detract from its primary hook and focal point of being a hybrid device, because consumers are clearly not disenchanted with that.

That wasn't just an Iwata thing because you really can't believe one man dictates everything. That is in Nintendo's DNA, to create new experiences and sometimes it works and sometimes it doesn't. Just more powerful hardware is far harder to rely on for creative new ways to play all on its own. The gimmicks/new concepts provide new ways to interact with your console. They have done that for generations before Iwata. Also focal point? You only say that because of Wii's new concept being so massively popular. That's why Wii gets far more criticism than DS because it's hook wasn't quite as overwhelming as motion controls. None of the platforms relied on the gimmicks, if they made sense then they would be utilized in the games. Super Smash Bros Brawl was a Wii game with no motion controls. Nintendo's software developers would use the new concepts if they fit because they are new ways to interact with your console.

Let's say you are right though, maybe that was all Iwata. Why in the world would the current president risk changing that? What other era in Nintendo's history comes close? Remember Iwata has DS, Wii, 3DS, WiiU, and Switch. Even against GB/GBC, GBA, NES, SNES, and N64 all of Nintendos next 5 highest selling, Iwata's legacy smokes them. That company is full of Iwata's legacy dude, that ain't changing after the man lost his life. He has plenty of friends in that company and did a fantastic job. He's responsible for their current turnaround lmao.

 

[mariodk18]

So that was the first we heard of Switch? They annouced and acknowled Switch before detailing in January. You are predicting Nintendo will annouce and detail Switch successor in March and release in May. I'm just not so sure and I found it funny you are already including March. March and April are not empty, there is a blockbuster Movie releasing in that time period and yes that could effect hardware sales. We don't know if they have something planned alongside it like say a Mario special edition Switch Oled and/or Mario day sales on 3/10 for Mario day. If they had nothing then we would have probably had nothing in Jan, Kirby in Feb, and Fire Emblem in March. We are certainly at the end for Switch but this just to me seems rushed. Early 2023 is only being entertained because of Zelda.

Microsoft and Sony have already established longer life cycles, Nintendo has certainly followed suite. 7 years is now normal after 6 years was normal. Ps3 to Ps4 and Ps4 to Ps5 were both 7 years. Nintendo went from 5 years normally to 6 years normally with their home consoles. Wii to WiiU was 6 years and WiiU had a shorter life span for obvious reasons.

All we knew was what the console looked like in October. It was only in January that we found out the exact launch date, hardware details, online information, and launch year software lineup. And like I referenced earlier with the new 3DS announcement to release window being only a month and a half, it wouldn’t be that weird for a successor device with the same form factor to have a similar lead up. I’m just saying that the history is there, not that the new 3DS and this new switch are exactly the same in concept.

If you find it funny or hard to believe that they could announce this new system in March, then that’s fine by me. And March and April are both completely empty in terms of software from Nintendo. Now Nintendo could certainly have their usual February direct and have some type of titles released in those two months. But I find it strange that they reveal the exact date of tears of the kingdom, which is in their next fiscal year.

I do think they will at least have a special edition OLED model for Zelda, so I agree with you on that front. But six years is about the average for Nintendo and I certainly wouldn’t call them a normal company. That much I think we can agree on as well.

Different patterns, and prior history would all point to a hardware launch of some kind with Zelda next year in May. And mid May is pretty far out and I wouldn’t hesitate to call that early 2023 so I don’t think it would be rushed by any means.

 

[ReddDreadtheLead]

Actually, they only go no Christmas when they are in though position.

The 1st DS, Switch after Wii U…

All companies always try to focus on Christmas. The only exception was really 3ds, where they were in comfortable position, unless the piracy put Nintendo in a though position.

That isn’t really true.

The GameBoy released April 1989. With its “Pro” model being October 1998.

The GameBoy Advance released June 2001. Not a pro model but the GBA-SP was February 2003.

The DS released November 2004. It’s “Pro” model being November 2008.

The 3DS released February 2011. It’s “Pro” model being October 2014.

 

[Tokuiten]

Seeing the news about another old Compile Hearts-game coming to Switch, here's another argument to entertain for why Switch 2 should launch in 2023 and now a couple years later: 3rd-parties might be running out of old games worth porting to Switch at some point. You can't port ports. Sure, if they go all-in on VERY old classics, there's much more, but other than that, there's only so much.

 

[ILikeFeet]

it ain't like compile heart makes hardware pushing games. the JP publishers that do are doing good business without Nintendo platforms. good JP performance is just a cherry on top

 

[fiendcode]

The external licensed Idea Factory ports are weird. I guess there's a market but couldn't pubs scrounge up other better stuff?

 

[Gotdatmoney]

I don't actually think third parties are running out of games to port to the Switch. We know the hardware's general capability. There are still lots of titles that could be brought over from both the 7th and 8th gens. It is more a question of whether 3rd parties want to use resources to port games to the Switch.

We're at the point in the Switch's life where third parties should be launching same date games or exclusives. That's where the most potential lies. But just finding viable games to port doesn't strike me as that difficult.

I still don't think the tech is ready for the Switch 2, so the longer Nintendo leave it the better it will be.

The tech is more than adequate to launch a system that washes a PS4 with little effort. Will Nintendo lean into the node necessary to get the most out of currently available technology? Who knows. Is it possible? Very much so.

What exactly would you be expecting from 6.5 years of tech advancement?

 

[ILikeFeet]

What exactly would you be expecting from 6.5 years of tech advancement?

obviously ray tracing on a mobile plat...



oh...

/s

The external licensed Idea Factory ports are weird. I guess there's a market but couldn't pubs scrounge up other better stuff?

the only better stuff available is are new games

 

[Mr Swine]

I’m thinking they will announce Switch 2 during summer 2024 and release it at November 2024. 2023 will be a somewhat slow year but Nintendo will save those heavy hitters for 2024

 

[fully engaged]

I don't actually think third parties are running out of games to port to the Switch. We know the hardware's general capability. There are still lots of titles that could be brought over from both the 7th and 8th gens. It is more a question of whether 3rd parties want to use resources to port games to the Switch.

We're at the point in the Switch's life where third parties should be launching same date games or exclusives. That's where the most potential lies. But just finding viable games to port doesn't strike me as that difficult.



The tech is more than adequate to launch a system that washes a PS4 with little effort. Will Nintendo lean into the node necessary to get the most out of currently available technology? Who knows. Is it possible? Very much so.

What exactly would you be expecting from 6.5 years of tech advancement?

I expect battery life the same as the OLED and graphics above the level which was achievable 8 years ago on a mid-range PC. So, I expect 1070 performance at least on a 5-hour battery.

If Nvidia can't get that tech right, then Nintendo should wait. The CPU performance also has to be greatly improved over a ps4. The next Nintendo console should be aiming to be on shelves until 2030. Just think about that.
A lot of people are so eager to get a new console, but if the next Nintendo console is already comparable to a console that was designed in 2011... what are we even doing here?

 

[Aostia82]

I expect battery life the same as the OLED and graphics above the level which was achievable 8 years ago on a mid-range PC. So, I expect 1070 performance at least on a 5-hour battery.

If Nvidia can't get that tech right, then Nintendo should wait. The CPU performance also has to be greatly improved over a ps4. The next Nintendo console should be aiming to be on shelves until 2030. Just think about that.
A lot of people are so eager to get a new console, but if the next Nintendo console is already comparable to a console that was designed in 2011... what are we even doing here?

Wasn’t the Switch somehow comparable to a console designed in 2005/6? I mean the PS3

 

[ILikeFeet]

Wasn’t the Switch somehow comparable to a console designed in 2005/6? I mean the PS3

if by comparable, it stands over them, then yes

 

[Aostia82]

if by comparable, it stands over them, then yes

As the Switch 2 is supposed to be over ps4, not comparable to ps5
What I meant is that it seems pretty obvious that an hybrid system won't be comparable with the high-end performances of the current gen