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Switch 2/Pro/Deluxe reveal-to-release speculation.

What scenario do you think they’ll do?


  • Total voters
    204
I expect battery life the same as the OLED and graphics above the level which was achievable 8 years ago on a mid-range PC. So, I expect 1070 performance at least on a 5-hour battery.

If Nvidia can't get that tech right, then Nintendo should wait. The CPU performance also has to be greatly improved over a ps4. The next Nintendo console should be aiming to be on shelves until 2030. Just think about that.
A lot of people are so eager to get a new console, but if the next Nintendo console is already comparable to a console that was designed in 2011... what are we even doing here?
If the device is near completion then there is zero reason to wait. Hell just waiting in general would no be the best idea. They’ll lose money by just waiting instead of just releasing the device.
 
Voted red, but I want to stress that I see it being a Switch Pro type of device and not a Switch 2 (basically a DSi/GBC kind of device).
 
If the device is near completion then there is zero reason to wait. Hell just waiting in general would no be the best idea. They’ll lose money by just waiting instead of just releasing the device.
Agreed.

Maybe someone more knowledgable about the tech industry side of things can elaborate, but my impression is that leaks about the Switch 2 hardware have been known for, what, 2 years now, so what could possibly demand even more years to go from "yes, this is the SoC we want" to launch? Feels like the hardware would be dated from the start if they wait too long.
 
All we knew was what the console looked like in October. It was only in January that we found out the exact launch date, hardware details, online information, and launch year software lineup. And like I referenced earlier with the new 3DS announcement to release window being only a month and a half, it wouldn’t be that weird for a successor device with the same form factor to have a similar lead up. I’m just saying that the history is there, not that the new 3DS and this new switch are exactly the same in concept.

If you find it funny or hard to believe that they could announce this new system in March, then that’s fine by me. And March and April are both completely empty in terms of software from Nintendo. Now Nintendo could certainly have their usual February direct and have some type of titles released in those two months. But I find it strange that they reveal the exact date of tears of the kingdom, which is in their next fiscal year.

I do think they will at least have a special edition OLED model for Zelda, so I agree with you on that front. But six years is about the average for Nintendo and I certainly wouldn’t call them a normal company. That much I think we can agree on as well.

Different patterns, and prior history would all point to a hardware launch of some kind with Zelda next year in May. And mid May is pretty far out and I wouldn’t hesitate to call that early 2023 so I don’t think it would be rushed by any means.
Just to be clear although I don't think it's happening next May, I would personally want it lol. Switch is definitely long in the tooth and playing many other 3rd party games that it doesn't get or even just having them improved would be awesome. So if you are right, have fun telling everyone I told you so including me but I'll be just as happy as you lmao.
 
Agreed.

Maybe someone more knowledgable about the tech industry side of things can elaborate, but my impression is that leaks about the Switch 2 hardware have been known for, what, 2 years now, so what could possibly demand even more years to go from "yes, this is the SoC we want" to launch? Feels like the hardware would be dated from the start if they wait too long.
now that phone chips can have RT, that high that the TX1 had over phone SoCs won't last as long. though being able to play for more than 2h with RT is something that Drake will have to stabilize its throne. there's also the logistic of stockpiling chips that won't be used for years
 
now that phone chips can have RT, that high that the TX1 had over phone SoCs won't last as long. though being able to play for more than 2h with RT is something that Drake will have to stabilize its throne. there's also the logistic of stockpiling chips that won't be used for years
Do you REALLY expect Switch 2-games to actively feature RayTracing? Feels like a waste of power, when not even PS5-games use it.
 
Do you REALLY expect Switch 2-games to actively feature RayTracing? Feels like a waste of power, when not even PS5-games use it.
yes. RT is a lot more nuanced than that. games designed for raster first and have RT bolted on at the end isn't going bring out the best. not to mention new advancements in recent years showing a lot of promise in speeding up RT (for example, RTGI being done on non-accelerated hardware like a 5500M at high speeds).

once you stop thinking of RT as some sort of higher ceiling, visual enhancer, the floor will show itself to have not changed all that much. in a broad view, RT is a way of coloring the pixels of your monitor much like rasterizing is. it can scale really fuckin low
 
I expect battery life the same as the OLED and graphics above the level which was achievable 8 years ago on a mid-range PC. So, I expect 1070 performance at least on a 5-hour battery.

If Nvidia can't get that tech right, then Nintendo should wait. The CPU performance also has to be greatly improved over a ps4. The next Nintendo console should be aiming to be on shelves until 2030. Just think about that.
A lot of people are so eager to get a new console, but if the next Nintendo console is already comparable to a console that was designed in 2011... what are we even doing here?

What exactly about 6.5 TFlops at 5hrs is reasonable and suggests waiting what would likely be another 6-7 years? I don't understand this arbitrary expectation.

The Switch is a handheld. It is not going to be comparable in raw gpu grunt to contemporary devices with a power source. This is just a pointless ask. They should just make a stationar console then. Riding a ~400gflop platform for 12+ years because you want 6.5TFlops next makes no sense. The hardware exists right now to deliver a platform that is notably superior to the PS4 the same way the Switch is notably superior to the PS3/360.An A78 clocked at the same rate as the current Switch is about 2x the CPU of the PS4. Clocked to around 1.5GHz it's about 3x more performant. Even on the low clock side that's a notable jump advantage.

Leaving consumers waiting doesn't serve a purpose. Consumers aren't expecting what you are in the next platform because no one is trying to wait 12 years to get a new platform.
 
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I expect battery life the same as the OLED and graphics above the level which was achievable 8 years ago on a mid-range PC. So, I expect 1070 performance at least on a 5-hour battery.

If Nvidia can't get that tech right, then Nintendo should wait. The CPU performance also has to be greatly improved over a ps4. The next Nintendo console should be aiming to be on shelves until 2030. Just think about that.
A lot of people are so eager to get a new console, but if the next Nintendo console is already comparable to a console that was designed in 2011... what are we even doing here?
I legitimately cannot tell if this post is serious or not.


Edit: to get it clearer point and not leave this absent, creating a device that can compete with something like the 1070 and have a 5 hour battery life at minimum requires the Nintendo switch 2 to no longer be a Nintendo Switch. But a gaming laptop that costs several hundred to a few thousands of dollars.


It’s not realistic.
 
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I legitimately cannot tell if this post is serious or not.


Edit: to get it clearer point and not leave this absent, creating a device that can compete with something like the 1070 and have a 5 hour battery life at minimum requires the Nintendo switch 2 to no longer be a Nintendo Switch. But a gaming laptop that costs several hundred to a few thousands of dollars.


It’s not realistic.
A 1070 is a mid-tier card and is 3 generations old. This is exactly what Nintendo needs to make a switch 2 viable against the competition like valve.

If the device is near completion then there is zero reason to wait. Hell just waiting in general would no be the best idea. They’ll lose money by just waiting instead of just releasing the device.
The only people who believe this device is near completion also believe metroid prime trilogy HD is releasing this month..
 
A 1070 is a mid-tier card and is 3 generations old. This is exactly what Nintendo needs to make a switch 2 viable against the competition like valve.
Valve is beholden to the exact same limits of engineering and physics as Nintendo. It doesn't matter how much money or technological prowess you throw at Valve. A Steam Deck would not be able to achieve this either. The technology does not exist and will not for close to another 5-6 years.
 
It makes no sense to announce a new system in January. That's a great way to piss off the 10 million or so people who just got a Switch for the holidays.
I don’t really think people who bought a switch now for the holidays at this stage in the life of the switch will mind that much that Nintendo announced a system who will be noticeably more expensive and still plays switch games.



That said, I didn’t vote for red.
 
It makes no sense to announce a new system in January. That's a great way to piss off the 10 million or so people who just got a Switch for the holidays.
Not if the Switch 2 costs significantly more than the Switch 1.
 
Valve is beholden to the exact same limits of engineering and physics as Nintendo. It doesn't matter how much money or technological prowess you throw at Valve. A Steam Deck would not be able to achieve this either. The technology does not exist and will not for close to another 5-6 years.
By the time Nintendo release their next console both the Steam deck and the Xbox one S will be over 2-3 years old. If Nintendo ship a handheld hybrid which is not a jump in tech on the steam deck and is not at least on a level with the Xbox series S in dock mode, then they will be in trouble. That is my opinion.

JavelinR

It makes no sense to announce a new system in January. That's a great way to piss off the 10 million or so people who just got a Switch for the holidays.

I agree with you. And there is no benefit to it. This is people wanting shinny graphic upgrade to Zelda and no thought about business, shipping, marketing run, and harm to consumer brand trust.
 
By the time Nintendo release their next console both the Steam deck and the Xbox one S will be over 2-3 years old. If Nintendo ship a handheld hybrid which is not a jump in tech on the steam deck and is not at least on a level with the Xbox series S in dock mode, then they will be in trouble. That is my opinion.
Describe trouble? WiiU sized flop? N64 type sales? 3DS? Wii? Or in trouble as in you don't like it and the market still loves it and it goes on to sale as much as its competitors or more.
 
Describe trouble? WiiU sized flop? N64 type sales? 3DS? Wii? Or in trouble as in you don't like it and the market still loves it and it goes on to sale as much as its competitors or more.


Wii u type situation. Has the same brand name but is not a significant upgrade and can't compete with competitors on power or price. Even 3ds situation would be a major issue. Think about the troubles the 3ds had at launch.

I voted PS situation, but I actually think the console will not release until November 2024.. I just didn't read it.
 
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Wii u type situation. Has the same brand name but is not a significant upgrade and can't compete with competitors on power or price. Even 3ds situation would be a major issue. Think about the troubles the 3ds had at launch.

I voted PS situation, but I actually think the console will not release until November 2024.. I just didn't read it.

So if it's not as powerful as Xbox series S or a jump in hardware over Steam Deck, Switch's successor will sell WiiU territory bad. This should be fun but it will probably be around Steam Deck level in handheld mode and PS4 pro in dock mode. I think that's high enough power to match or exceed PS5's hardware sales.
 
Just to be clear although I don't think it's happening next May, I would personally want it lol. Switch is definitely long in the tooth and playing many other 3rd party games that it doesn't get or even just having them improved would be awesome. So if you are right, have fun telling everyone I told you so including me but I'll be just as happy as you lmao.
Nah, I’m not vindictive like that. Just a little crazy from following the “future Nintendo hardware thread” for over two years.

But I might still say “told ya so” to the doubters…just once as a general post. Not the type to @ individuals. I’d be too busy commenting in the “future Nintendo hardware thread - OT 2” for that.
 
Wii u type situation. Has the same brand name but is not a significant upgrade and can't compete with competitors on power or price. Even 3ds situation would be a major issue. Think about the troubles the 3ds had at launch.

I voted PS situation, but I actually think the console will not release until November 2024.. I just didn't read it.
Should I remind everyone of that legendary GAF thread after the January Switch presentation and how the "lack" of power and price would have the Switch DoA?

Also, by all accounts the SoC for the Switch 2 has already been physically made (according to thr Linux commit reports) and may start manufacturing at any point, if it hasn't already.
 
By the time Nintendo release their next console both the Steam deck and the Xbox one S will be over 2-3 years old. If Nintendo ship a handheld hybrid which is not a jump in tech on the steam deck and is not at least on a level with the Xbox series S in dock mode, then they will be in trouble. That is my opinion.
that's not a well based opinion. Nintendo have never been in trouble due to underpowered hardware. just look at the Switch. anyone who cares that much about performance probably wasn't even buying Nintendo in the first place. hell, why Steam Deck when there's a new handheld that trumps the SD that was just announced?

ONEXPLAYER-2-SPECS.jpg
 
that's not a well based opinion. Nintendo have never been in trouble due to underpowered hardware. just look at the Switch. anyone who cares that much about performance probably wasn't even buying Nintendo in the first place. hell, why Steam Deck when there's a new handheld that trumps the SD that was just announced?

ONEXPLAYER-2-SPECS.jpg
And that's not to mention the SD isn't even a threat to the Switch, when are we expecting it to even reach 10 million units sold? Ever? After SD2? The Switch is so far above and beyond that that the SD family would not even begin to affect it. Putting things in context makes it ridiculous to believe it could outcompete the Switch. This will also be the case with the Switch 2, it'll sell at very high volumes, it'll outsell the SD day 1 most likely.

By the way, when is that handheld that you are showing supposed to launch? Because I don't think LPDDR5x is launching that soon and I can't find any info on any launch date for it.
 
And that's not to mention the SD isn't even a threat to the Switch, when are we expecting it to even reach 10 million units sold? Ever? After SD2? The Switch is so far above and beyond that that the SD family would not even begin to affect it. Putting things in context makes it ridiculous to believe it could outcompete the Switch. This will also be the case with the Switch 2, it'll sell at very high volumes, it'll outsell the SD day 1 most likely.

By the way, when is that handheld that you are showing supposed to launch? Because I don't think LPDDR5x is launching that soon and I can't find any info on any launch date for it.
2023, preorders start this week. they shipped products before, so I don't think it'll be far into 2023

 
Should I remind everyone of that legendary GAF thread after the January Switch presentation and how the "lack" of power and price would have the Switch DoA?

Also, by all accounts the SoC for the Switch 2 has already been physically made (according to thr Linux commit reports) and may start manufacturing at any point, if it hasn't already.
That was an unknown factor. A lot of things have changed. For one, the Switch has a lot of the PS4 gen games on it already, for example DOOM and the Witcher 3.
So, the only thing a new Switch can offer is handheld versions of new games, which there just have not been that many. I am not trying to move goal posts, just pointing out more issues for why it needs to come out later rather than sooner. By the time, it does come out will PS4 have been abandoned?

Even if all the rumors are true, arent the chip rumors only from February of this year? Wouldnt that be a fast turnaround from parts to product?
 
2023, preorders start this week. they shipped products before, so I don't think it'll be far into 2023


Just checked the price, that's certainly expensive, I wonder if the LPDDR5x is increasing the cost too much? Too bad the Switch 2 will probably not use it.
That was an unknown factor. A lot of things have changed. For one, the Switch has a lot of the PS4 gen games on it already, for example DOOM and the Witcher 3.
So, the only thing a new Switch can offer is handheld versions of new games, which there just have not been that many. I am not trying to move goal posts, just pointing out more issues for why it needs to come out later rather than sooner. By the time, it does come out will PS4 have been abandoned?

Even if all the rumors are true, arent the chip rumors only from February of this year? Wouldnt that be a fast turnaround from parts to product?
Those aren't rumors, the SoC info was literally hacked away from Nvidia itself, which confirmed the info was real. We learned about NVN2 API (NVN API is used exclusively for Switch games) and a description of the GPU. I can post that info here if you want to read it, but it's quite a beefy GPU.

Furthermore, in the Linux commits Nvidia engineers have been uploading info on the T239, about what needs to be fixed, and interestingly enough, the info that it's CPU is in 1 cluster with 8 cores, which can only mean it's the A78C. If the real hardware already exists, then it won't take too long to start manufacturing.
 
that's not a well based opinion. Nintendo have never been in trouble due to underpowered hardware. just look at the Switch. anyone who cares that much about performance probably wasn't even buying Nintendo in the first place. hell, why Steam Deck when there's a new handheld that trumps the SD that was just announced?

ONEXPLAYER-2-SPECS.jpg
Nintendo have definitely suffered in the past because of power. The Switch was a reasonably powerful handheld when it launched.
That is to say, there was very little competition if any. I also despise this argument.. If you cared about power, you wouldn't buy Nintendo! As a Nintendo fan for thirty years this makes me sad.. I feel you care more about being right than having an honest discussion about the realities of shipping a product which has had no product announcement, which is still not needed from the point of view of sales, and which if launched at the wrong time could have serious consequences for a company like Nintendo.
Just checked the price, that's certainly expensive, I wonder if the LPDDR5x is increasing the cost too much? Too bad the Switch 2 will probably not use it.

Those aren't rumors, the SoC info was literally hacked away from Nvidia itself, which confirmed the info was real. We learned about NVN2 API (NVN API is used exclusively for Switch games) and a description of the GPU. I can post that info here if you want to read it, but it's quite a beefy GPU.

Furthermore, in the Linux commits Nvidia engineers have been uploading info on the T239, about what needs to be fixed, and interestingly enough, the info that it's CPU is in 1 cluster with 8 cores, which can only mean it's the A78C. If the real hardware already exists, then it won't take too long to start manufacturing.
I think the data is fine, but this still isnt a chip we can physically see. This is a product which is in development. It certainly doesnt point to it being ready to ship in 6 months.
 
Nintendo have definitely suffered in the past because of power. The Switch was a reasonably powerful handheld when it launched.
That is to say, there was very little competition if any.

I think the data is fine, but this still isnt a chip we can physically see. This is a product which is in development. It certainly doesnt point to it being ready to ship in 6 months.
The Linux commits point to an already manufacturing hardware, samples tracing back to April this year, so the hardware is not only possible, but already made. Physical units of the SoC exist at Nvidia.
 
The Linux commits point to an already manufacturing hardware, samples tracing back to April this year, so the hardware is not only possible, but already made. Physical units of the SoC exist at NvidiA
Prototypes exist for years.
If lines had been set in China or Vietnam, something would have leaked. Nintendo is still struggling to meet demand for the OLED switch never mind getting lines assigned for a new product.
 
Prototypes exist for years.
If lines had been set in China or Vietnam something would have leaked. Nintendo is still struggling to meet demand for the OLED switch never mind getting lines assigned for a new product.
I wouldn't call the sample of the finalized hardware a "prototype". It may or may not be in full production now, or it may start in January. They won't sit on a finalized design for 1-2 years either.
 
I wouldn't call the sample of the finalized hardware a "prototype". It may or may not be in full production now, or it may start in January. They won't sit on a finalized design for 1-2 years either.
If the design is finalized, then Dev kits will have shipped last year, because the tech is DLSS, right? Forgive me if I am wrong, but that tech has not been around for 2 years, has it? From my understanding, and I am no expert at all, but don't dev kits ship around a year to two years ahead of launch? What is more, what are the expected launch games for this system? I get that people are heavily invested in the idea of Breath of the Wild 2.. I don't really see why that investment exists as the Wii launched with Twilight princess and one of its last games was Skyward Sword and the 3DS had Zelda games towards the end of its life cycle too... but sure.. Because ZELDA.. is an argument I guess..

I would not be surprised to see a new Zelda on Switch 2 as the game shipping in May is basically a continuation of the first game which appeared on Switch. But maybe I am just wishing on a star for more Zelda.

The only thing that really makes me think Nintendo might announce hardware this year is if the Mario movie does really well, and they want to tie in with that.

Here is what I see as huge negatives to the launching this year.

Game development is not going smoothly around the world in general.
Nintendo just launched Splatoon 3 and I imagine they would like to launch Splat4 with a new Switch in Japan.
Nintendo has a dlc cycle for a number of first party games still running.
I would imagine Nintendo needs these games in launch year

MK9
SPlatoon 4
3d Mario
A new art style Zelda.

I think MK9 and 3D Mario could be ready next year, but Splatoon 4 this close to splatoon 3 would be a bad move.
New Zelda would be a few years away, but a teaser would need to be ready.
 
If the design is finalized, then Dev kits will have shipped last year, because the tech is DLSS, right? Forgive me if I am wrong, but that tech has not been around for 2 years, has it? From my understanding, and I am no expert at all, but don't dev kits ship around a year to two years ahead of launch? What is more, what are the expected launch games for this system? I get that people are heavily invested in the idea of Breath of the Wild 2.. I don't really see why that investment exists as the Wii launched with Twilight princess and one of its last games was Skyward Sword and the 3DS had Zelda games towards the end of its life cycle too... but sure.. Because ZELDA.. is an argument I guess..

I would not be surprised to see a new Zelda on Switch 2 as the game shipping in May is basically a continuation of the first game which appeared on Switch. But maybe I am just wishing on a star for more Zelda.

The only thing that really makes me think Nintendo might announce hardware this year is if the Mario movie does really well, and they want to tie in with that.

Here is what I see as huge negatives to the launching this year.

Game development is not going smoothly around the world in general.
Nintendo just launched Splatoon 3 and I imagine they would like to launch Splat4 with a new Switch in Japan.
Nintendo has a dlc cycle for a number of first party games still running.
I would imagine Nintendo needs these games in launch year

MK9
SPlatoon 4
3d Mario
A new art style Zelda.

I think MK9 and 3D Mario could be ready next year, but Splatoon 4 this close to splatoon 3 would be a bad move.
New Zelda would be a few years away, but a teaser would need to be ready.
Dev kits don't usually have final hardware in them when they are first distributed to 3rd parties, furthermore, virtual dev kits can also be made so devs can start developing right away. They get updates on software and hardware as they develop the hardware further. Leaks had already pointed out that some devs had dev kits since late 2020. Usually it takes about 2 years from this to release.

Why do you think Nintendo would want to launch with Splatoon 4? No Splatoon game has been at launch. A 3D Mario will probably be present during the launch year, we are already due for one. MK9 is not really necessary in launch year either. I am not sure why you think a new Zelda with different art style is needed. TotK will sell tens of millions, specially if launched in both systems and with one of them giving a superior experience. We don't really know what Nintendo has planned for next year either, I am quite sure we already knew about a bunch of 1st party games at this point last year, make of that what you will.
 
Red seems likely to me but even in that scenario it could be a more minor upgrade to the hardware than people seem to think. I think there is a change it will not be a major Switch 2 type of upgrade but more like a Switch 1.5 type of thing. I also think they will have some kind of new game play feature.

I do believe it will release in 2023 though. And if it doesn't, I think they will go for something completely different for the next hardware and ride the Switch out as long as they can (2024 or 2025).
 
Dev kits don't usually have final hardware in them when they are first distributed to 3rd parties, furthermore, virtual dev kits can also be made so devs can start developing right away. They get updates on software and hardware as they develop the hardware further. Leaks had already pointed out that some devs had dev kits since late 2020. Usually it takes about 2 years from this to release.

Why do you think Nintendo would want to launch with Splatoon 4? No Splatoon game has been at launch. A 3D Mario will probably be present during the launch year, we are already due for one. MK9 is not really necessary in launch year either. I am not sure why you think a new Zelda with different art style is needed. TotK will sell tens of millions, specially if launched in both systems and with one of them giving a superior experience. We don't really know what Nintendo has planned for next year either, I am quite sure we already knew about a bunch of 1st party games at this point last year, make of that what you will.
Splatoon 2 launched 3 months after the Switch was launched.. that is basically launch window.

I just think Zelda has to evolve the fans expect that. I view the new game as more Majora's mask than a new Zelda. I know it will be more than that, but it reuses assets and is not a new take. It is the same characters in a developed story.
Traditionally that is not what Zelda has been.
What did we know about last year at this time?
Bayonetta had no release date, Splatoon 3 was announced maybe.. Xenoblade was announced.. Kirby in a 3d game.. Switch sports and maybe Mario strikers Oh and the Open world pokemon?
So, we had 4-5 games
This year, we have Fire Emblem, Kirby, Zelda and Pikmin 4.

Seems about the same? If anything this year has 2 bigger games than last year.
 
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If the design is finalized, then Dev kits will have shipped last year, because the tech is DLSS, right? Forgive me if I am wrong, but that tech has not been around for 2 years, has it? From my understanding, and I am no expert at all, but don't dev kits ship around a year to two years ahead of launch? What is more, what are the expected launch games for this system? I get that people are heavily invested in the idea of Breath of the Wild 2.. I don't really see why that investment exists as the Wii launched with Twilight princess and one of its last games was Skyward Sword and the 3DS had Zelda games towards the end of its life cycle too... but sure.. Because ZELDA.. is an argument I guess..

I would not be surprised to see a new Zelda on Switch 2 as the game shipping in May is basically a continuation of the first game which appeared on Switch. But maybe I am just wishing on a star for more Zelda.

The only thing that really makes me think Nintendo might announce hardware this year is if the Mario movie does really well, and they want to tie in with that.

Here is what I see as huge negatives to the launching this year.

Game development is not going smoothly around the world in general.
Nintendo just launched Splatoon 3 and I imagine they would like to launch Splat4 with a new Switch in Japan.
Nintendo has a dlc cycle for a number of first party games still running.
I would imagine Nintendo needs these games in launch year

MK9
SPlatoon 4
3d Mario
A new art style Zelda.

I think MK9 and 3D Mario could be ready next year, but Splatoon 4 this close to splatoon 3 would be a bad move.
New Zelda would be a few years away, but a teaser would need to be ready.
  • You don't actually need dev kits to start working on Switch games. A windows pc would be suffice in the beginning until you're ready to tune the game for proper hardware. Not to mention, other compatible hardware exists in the form of Jetson Orin boards
  • DLSS 2 has been around since 2019, the same year as the earliest T239 reference
  • Waiting for splatoon dlc to be over to release Drake means you're waiting until 2026 to release it. Hardware R&D does not last that long. The Series and PS5 didn't last that long given what we know of their hardware development
Nintendo have definitely suffered in the past because of power. The Switch was a reasonably powerful handheld when it launched.
That is to say, there was very little competition if any
when there was competition, Nintendo never won based on power. the wii was notorious and still came out ahead until late; the Game Boy was hella underpowered compared to its contemporaries; as was the DS and 3DS, and now the switch. it did mean that these systems didn't get the same games, but that didn't put a dent in their retail performance. Drake is not going to suffer from the same
 
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I'd love for it to be Red. But this is a prediction, not a wish, so I bet my cards into Blue.
Though I wouldn't be surprised if it turns out to be Green.
Orange though would be just wild, no new games except for TOTK and new hardware release until holiday 2024? That is worse than Wii U/Wii levels of drought and drop of support. I don't see it honestly.
 
Some context.
Oh right yes, you do not seem to really need a actual hardware developer kit to develop switch games and I don’t see that changing for the switch 2.

The graphics API for it is based on windows and allows for game development even without using a physical developer kit.

The earliest dates for the Graphics API dubbed NVN2 is circa late 2019. When the overall project started on the other hand seems to be about summer 2019, and taking full swing mid-summer (August) of that year.


Nvidia is the one designing and creating the chip within Nintendo’s specifications and requirements and what they are paying for. They rely on a super computer they created that does the work. Here and here and I guess here? If you want to read similar articles about it that is.


You may be wondering, how do we know that this is actually for Nintendo?

In the data breach that happened this year, February/March 2022, it had detailed information on a chip and the graphics API for it. Not only that it also had information about other nvidia products that came to be this year, such as NVidia’s ORIN series of automotive focused System-on-Chips, NVidia’s Desktop next-generation GPUs of the RTX 4000 series dubbed as the Ada Lovelace Architecture. It also had information about datacenter/HPC products such as the nVidia Grace CPUs and the nVidia Hopper GPUs. It has the hardware configurations and what differs between the Ampere (RTX 3000) and the Ada Lovelace Architecture, finer details such as caches, number of cores, number of channels, etc.

nVidia confirmed that the information in these are real and that they did suffer a massive data breach.

Wait but you haven’t actually told me how this is related to Nintendo or that it is for Nintendo?

Oh I apologize. In the data breach that they suffered, it contained information about the NVN2 API which had detailed information about the hardware it is meant for. It also has mentions of HOS (Horizon OS) that the Switch and the 3DS use. Has mention of NX product. And has mention of the product device HOVI. All of these are related to Nintendo here, and about the environment of it.

That’s how we know that this Drake SoC has a strong tie to Nintendo. Curiously, internally the device that DRAKE is meant for is still called NX, not anything else.

Not like how Cafe was different from Dolphin or Citrus was different from NX. It refers to it all as NX still and not NX2. The only thing that is reference to as ‘2’ is the graphical portion, as the GPU is different. But it doesn’t seem like the chip is meant for a device that isn’t a Switch (NX). Or that the product that NVN2 is meant for is still… a switch and not something else.




So it’s based off an existing chip?



Of what we know about the chip, called Drake, it has features that are only useful in a video game console, it has worse AI performance than the original chip it is based on (which is for cars), and worse graphical performance for testing and developing neural networks. It also completely lacks hardware for automotive use that are meant for dedicating processing for certain aspects useful in cars such as detection and safety.



So it isn’t a chip meant for cars, and the other chip(ORIN) isn’t something meant for a gaming console. They are meant for different segments.

Can’t nVidia just use it for a new nVidia Shield just like the original chip inside the switch?

Of course they can, but the chip itself is completely overkill for that segment. If they wanted something with better streaming capabilities and just runs Android like the original TX1, they would have made something much smaller, leaner and appropriate for that segment. I need to you though that the last time Nvidia released a consumer grade product that is for people like you and me in a regular living environment was in 2015, since then they have released multiple system on chips but they were for professionals in the automotive and artificial intelligence sector.

They have not released anything that is meant for consumers in such a long time, that if you want to entertain the possibility that a new shield TV can come to the market before this chip comes to the market with a new switch, and that the next switch can come a few years later, you also have to recognize that the chance of that happening is low, considering that the company doesn’t dive into that segment anymore.

Not to mention the last time that they released a new version of a chip that was a consumer grade product was after Nintendo announced and revealed the Nintendo switch lite and the Nintendo switch V2 model. They didn’t do it before, they released it after. In a sense, the shield follows after what Nintendo has released. It was October 2019 while the Lite was September 2019.

If a new consumer segment product does come to pass, it seems likelier that it is after the Switch NEXT, not necessarily before.




Ok what else?

So, it should be 3.5 years since the project for this chip started in January/February.


Let me put this into perspective, if it releases in May 2023(Scenario 🟥), that means that the project has had about 3.8 years of Start-to-Market. That does not mean the same for the concept of the device that could have been 4-5 years from start-to-market.

If the device releases for the Sept-November window (Scenario 🟦), that means that the Drake project has had about 4.1-4.3-ish years of Start-to-Market. Like with scenario red, that does not mean that the project of the console shares the same time, it can be a start-to-market of 5 years or so.


If the device releases March 2024 (Scenario 🟩), the Chip has had a time of 4.6-4.65 years of Start-to-Market. Console project is probably 5-6 years by this point in time.


If the device releases by November 2024 (Scenario 🟧) then the chip has taken over 5 Years of start-to-market. The console project has also taken perhaps 5-6 years in this case.
 
Splatoon 2 launched 3 months after the Switch was launched.. that is basically launch window.

I just think Zelda has to evolve the fans expect that. I view the new game as more Majora's mask than a new Zelda. I know it will be more than that, but it reuses assets and is not a new take. It is the same characters in a developed story.
Traditionally that is not what Zelda has been.
What did we know about last year at this time?
Bayonetta had no release date, Splatoon 3 was announced maybe.. Xenoblade was announced.. Kirby in a 3d game.. Switch sports and maybe Mario strikers Oh and the Open world pokemon?
So, we had 4-5 games
This year, we have Fire Emblem, Kirby, Zelda and Pikmin 4.

Seems about the same? If anything this year has 2 bigger games than last year.
I don't think Zelda needs to get a new artstyle for the new platform, nor that Nintendo will sit on Drake for 5-7 more years to release the Switch 2, which at that point it'd be maybe as underpowered as the GBC was in 1998. For Splatoon, they could add enhancements for the Drake version, same with all other games.
 
Zelda fans would riot if there was yet another delay, especially with such a blatantly obvious "try to push Drake sales" reason for the dealy when a solid release date finally just got nailed down.
Can confirm. I wouldn't hold back.
 
Skyward sword released a whole year before the Wii U release date on what nowadays is considered a dying system (Wii in Holiday 2011). On that same year's E3, 5 months before, the Wii U had already been unveiled, a trailer had already come out, and everyone knew about the gamepad, and that didn't stop SS from releasing on the old system.

I'm a firm believer that TOTK and the Switch 2 are completely disconnected from each other, and that, if anything, the only way to play the former in the latter is through BC (or an enhanced port down the line).

Thus, a new hardware announcement in spring 2023 with a holiday 2023 / spring 2024 release date wouldn't be surprising, considering the lack of a proven connection between Zelda and the new hardware release.

EDIT: Another tidbit: BOTW was revealed to be multi-platform by April 2016, almost 11 months before release, by a Nintendo tweet. By that time the existence of BOTW and the NX was acknowledged, but none of them had a full blown reveal yet.
 
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Famicom Red.
In May 2023, the infamous "Switch Pro" will be released along with Zelda 2. It will be able to play games in 4K/60fps/HDR in docked mode and 1080p/60fps/HDR in handheld mode. All games already released via the Cloud for current Nintendo Switch models will be released both physically and digitally for Switch Pro. And it should be like that with the big third party games. In the last quarter of 2024, Nintendo announces the Switch 2 to be released in March 2025. However, if the Switch Pro already arrives with an enormous success, Nintendo may well postpone the real successor of the Switch to 2026 or 2027.
 
Famicom Red.
In May 2023, the infamous "Switch Pro" will be released along with Zelda 2. It will be able to play games in 4K/60fps/HDR in docked mode and 1080p/60fps/HDR in handheld mode. All games already released via the Cloud for current Nintendo Switch models will be released both physically and digitally for Switch Pro. And it should be like that with the big third party games. In the last quarter of 2024, Nintendo announces the Switch 2 to be released in March 2025. However, if the Switch Pro already arrives with an enormous success, Nintendo may well postpone the real successor of the Switch to 2026 or 2027.
this is pretty unrealistic given the state of hardware. if the Pro is the T239, then the 2 can't exist
 
Famicom Red.
In May 2023, the infamous "Switch Pro" will be released along with Zelda 2. It will be able to play games in 4K/60fps/HDR in docked mode and 1080p/60fps/HDR in handheld mode. All games already released via the Cloud for current Nintendo Switch models will be released both physically and digitally for Switch Pro. And it should be like that with the big third party games. In the last quarter of 2024, Nintendo announces the Switch 2 to be released in March 2025. However, if the Switch Pro already arrives with an enormous success, Nintendo may well postpone the real successor of the Switch to 2026 or 2027.
This is about as realistic as any random copypasta I've seen.
 
I don't think Zelda needs to get a new artstyle for the new platform, nor that Nintendo will sit on Drake for 5-7 more years to release the Switch 2, which at that point it'd be maybe as underpowered as the GBC was in 1998. For Splatoon, they could add enhancements for the Drake version, same with all other games.
I sort of think it does. I think it looks great now, but the whole thing that makes Zelda exciting is how it evolves. If the current artstyle is the end of development that would be pretty depressing.
Going with Green! Announcement at E3 or over event with a 2024 March release!
This is honestly the most realistic schedule in my opinion; however, a lot depends on manufacturing... I am really going to miss the day I could preorder my Switch back in February 2017 and people were not that interested... Now, it will be a battle to get a new Switch whenever they release it...
 
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