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Switch 2/Pro/Deluxe reveal-to-release speculation.

What scenario do you think they’ll do?

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ReddDreadtheLead

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The Nintendo Switch is approaching its 6th year on the market, it is not the spring chicken it once was. After March 3rd 2023, it will be entering its 7th year on the market.


For the sake of a conversation I’m gonna put a few scenarios and you tell me which, to you, sounds the most realistic:

Scenario 🟥 : Direct in January/February that announces hardware to May and it includes game lineup for it that stretches into the rest of the Fiscal year. Has a few that are exclusive to the new hardware and others that will hit both the Switch and the Switch 2. Aim to offer exclusive software for the system that are bigger titles, keeps support for both systems with smaller titles as Switch software support winds down after a year or two. Ex: Pikmin 4 will arrive to both systems, 3D Mario next will not as that is next gen only.

Scenario 🟦 : Announcement in a separate video/press release after the Fiscal Year starts, reveal in June/July or around the E3 time and release in September to November window 2023. Also has details of the launch software that stretches into 2024. Some games will be on both, but others will be New Hardware Exclusive. Ex: Pikmin 4 is hitting both platforms, Mario Kart NEXT will not.

Scenario 🟩 : Nintendo announces hardware before the current fiscal year ends, at around the E3 time they officially unveil it, set to release for March 2024 and its sales are included in the fiscal year (FY03/2024), details of games set for later on in 2023 that will span into FY03/2025. Ex: First and Third Party launch lineup.

Scenario 🟧 : there is no hardware at all for FY03/24. No reveal and no discussion of major games, but just smaller selling titles that can manage a million. It would be a tepid at best year outside of TOTK. Talk would be the following Fiscal Year for hardware. They coast the next fiscal year with the expansion passes and DLCs being high for the year. New hardware is at earliest a November 2024 launch. 2D and 3D Mario accompany that launch, new Mario Kart for 2025, etc.




You only have 1 choice.

Discuss

Hidetaka_Miyazaki.jpg
 
unkindlynice said:
Orange but I still think major releases will be coming to Switch.
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The only major release in Orange is TOTK. Switch will get “minor” releases and the next major release would be the Pokémon before they move to next hardware, since GameFreak is slow. Next generation Pokémon being like… 2025. 3 years. Like last time.


It outlined the scenarios clearly.

Then again, I suppose “major releases” depends on what you view as major. Because I’m referring to the 5-10M or so sellers that they can release.

Not the 1 to 2.5-3M sellers.

Maybe they’ll throw a new Donkey Kong at the switch in between, but that would hit both systems then as it is a cross gen game.
 
The first option is the most likely to me. But in any case, I don't see hardware missing calendar year 2023.

People might like to point to sales as Nintendo not needing a new system, but you can't make snap decisions like that. Hardware development and release is planned years ahead and eventually comes to a point where you CAN'T stop, not without major financial caveats. And I think the next system has long since passed that point.

As for software, it's the same as I always said: third party will move almost immediately, with overall support looking like a better version of Switch, won't get everything but a lot of major games will come if late; first party will support Switch as long as possible, but it won't be long before some games just don't come due to really bad performance
 
I expect a first unspecific hardware announcement (think NX2) to investors at the end of the FY with an intent to release in the coming FY (by the end of March 2024).

I think Odyssey 2 and Prime 4 will be cross-gen. Enhanced TOTK rerelease for launch (no upgrade path, lol).
 
ReddDreadtheLead said:
The only major release in Orange is TOTK. Switch will get “minor” releases and the next major release would be the Pokémon before they move to next hardware, since GameFreak is slow. Next generation Pokémon being like… 2025. 3 years. Like last time.


It outlined the scenarios clearly.

Then again, I suppose “major releases” depends on what you view as major. Because I’m referring to the 5-10M or so sellers that they can release.

Not the 1 to 2.5-3M sellers.

Maybe they’ll throw a new Donkey Kong at the switch in between, but that would hit both systems then as it is a cross gen game.
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Nintendo won’t hold back software. So any major release you might expect on Switch 2 if it had released in 23/24 would be on Switch.
 
unkindlynice said:
Nintendo won’t hold back software. So any major release you might expect on Switch 2 if it had released in 23/24 would be on Switch.
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Nintendo has literally held software before for when they need it, why is this a different scenario.


Perhaps I’m confusing the situation here, but in the orange scenario, the only titles that will be released that is a major title will be perhaps a donkey Kong, and most assuredly another Pokémon game for the Nintendo switch, and the game after that from Gamefreak would be on the Nintendo switch next device. But Nintendo proper does not really gain from the major titles being available on the Nintendo switch, because just having the quip of “play the same games that you can buy on the system you currently own but at a better frame rate and resolution” is going to be a harder sell for their audience who doesn’t strive or look for higher performance and graphics as the focus.


Let alone that Nintendo would have a new gimmick of sorts for their next hardware, if the cross games can’t really make use of the gimmick (assuming even minor) then it undermines the point of the addition of the hardware gimmick in my opinion.
 
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I don't care at this point anymore. I just want to know it exists and when it comes out.
Switch sales will slow down in 2023. I don't know the extend, but not having a successor during holidays 2023 or end of fiscal year 2024 would be a huge mistake.

Nintendo generally has shorter generations. So I'm a little in disbelieve.
 
Years before a successor hits market:

FC: 7.5 years
SFC: 6 years
N64: 5 years
GC: 5 years
Wii: 6 years
Wii U: 4.5 years

GB: 12 years
GBA: 3.5 years
DS: 6 years
3DS: 6 years

NSW: 6 years and counting...
 
I voted red, but I think it'll be either that or blue. Nintendo has used the Switch gen to strengthen relationships with third parties. Imo, waiting too long for the Drake will kinda burn all that progress.
 
PlayStation blue: I think they will introduce a Zelda themed OLED in May, right before the launch game.
After that they will reveal the DlsSwitch around / after E3, to launch in for the Holiday season, with automatic patch/performance boost for the vast majority of their existing Switch games (that will continue to receive software, that will perform better on the DlsSwitch), starting from Tears of the Kingdom of course
 
Aostia82 said:
PlayStation blue: I think they will introduce a Zelda themed OLED in May, right before the launch game.
After that they will reveal the DlsSwitch around / after E3, to launch in for the Holiday season, with automatic patch/performance boost for the vast majority of their existing Switch games (that will continue to receive software, that will perform better on the DlsSwitch), starting from Tears of the Kingdom of course
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You had me until you said automatic

None of it would be automatic unfortunately.

Unless you mean it in a different way.
 
I can't see BotW2 release not together with new hardware. Any later on "now when you play it on Switch 2, it will run in higher resoultion/framerate" will fall flat when the game has been out for months already. It needs to be there for Switch 2 day 1, with the option of running on Switch 1 as the option, not the other way round. There's never been such a clear road to repeat the EXACT same scenario for repeating another successfull decade:

- Switch 2 and BotW2 in May
- new content for MK8D
- New 3D Mario in October
- Xenoblade 3 DLC-Story in December

Edit: So, red is my vote.
 
Nintendo still have some multi-million selling IPs that have yet to have an original release on Switch such as:

- 2D Mario (I am not talking about Mario Maker- there is a huge gulf in the sales potential for a Mario Maker and a new Super Mario Bros. title)
- Top-down Zelda
- Donkey Kong
- Tomodachi Life
- Pokemon Mystery Dungeon
- Pikmin
- Nintendogs

We already know Zelda: TotK and Pikmin is releasing next FY (FY 2024). Most likely Detective Pikachu II and Metroid Prime 4 as well. Combine those with the games mentioned above (except for top-down Zelda- I don't believe Nintendo would release a 3d and a 2d Zelda in the same FY) and Nintendo can have a hell of a final software run on the Switch before releasing it's successor.

If there is a precipitous hardware drop during FY 2024, I believe the successor will release late FY 2024 (November 2023- March 2024). If hardware sales remain somewhat stable or have only a slight drop then the successor's release could be early FY 2025 (April 2024 or soon thereafter).
 
Next FY2023/24 is a good bet.

The moment is very hard to guess honestly.

For me its a launch with Zelda next may or march 2024 with whatever software they think can sell new hardware.
 
Nenned said:
Nintendo still have some multi-million selling IPs that have yet to have an original release on Switch such as:

- 2D Mario (I am not talking about Mario Maker- there is a huge gulf in the sales potential for a Mario Maker and a new Super Mario Bros. title)
- Top-down Zelda
- Donkey Kong
- Tomodachi Life
- Pokemon Mystery Dungeon
- Pikmin
- Nintendogs

We already know Zelda: TotK and Pikmin is releasing next FY (FY 2024). Most likely Detective Pikachu II and Metroid Prime 4 as well. Combine those with the games mentioned above (except for top-down Zelda- I don't believe Nintendo would release a 3d and a 2d Zelda in the same FY) and Nintendo can have a hell of a final software run on the Switch before releasing it's successor.

If there is a precipitous hardware drop during FY 2024, I believe the successor will release late FY 2024 (November 2023- March 2024). If hardware sales remain somewhat stable or have only a slight drop then the successor's release could be early FY 2025 (April 2024 or soon thereafter).
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why should they wait though? that software can be played on new hardware, probably with better performance. and said hardware would be more expensive, so those who are eager for better performance would jump in immediately and still buy the same software. by putting out new hardware sooner, Nintendo would make more money through folks buying a $400+ system
 
ReddDreadtheLead said:
Scenario 🟩 : Nintendo announces hardware before the current fiscal year ends, at around the E3 time they officially unveil it, set to release for March 2024 and its sales are included in the fiscal year (FY03/2024), details of games set for later on in 2023 that will span into FY03/2025. Ex: First and Third Party launch lineup.
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Why would they announce the next hardware before the current fiscal year ends? I believe March 2024 to be the most likely time for a successor to the Switch to launch, but announcing more than a year prior is a bit to early I think.

Red is imo the by far most unlikely scenario and makes no sense beyond people either wanting to have the console asap or having a hard time grasping that the Switch 2 doesn't need to launch with TotK.

3D Mario, 2D Mario, Donkey Kong, Luigi's Mansion 4, Mario Kart 9, Super Mario Party 2, Tomodachi 3, Pokémon BW Remake, these are easy 10M sellers that are all candidates for a great 2024 lineup exclusively for the Switch 2. Add to those other possible games like a new 2D Zelda, Style Savvy, Excite Trucks, Captain Toad 2, Kirby etc etc etc.
Why do people think 3D Zelda is 100% needed at launch? "It makes sense" is what I frequently read and sure it does, but why does that make it more likely than March 2024?

Shuntaro Furukawa has often stated that they plan for the Switch to have a longer than usual life cycle. As you can see up above in @fiendcode 's post 6 years isn't really longer than usual. It's more like the standard. Of course then you can say that it will still be alive after the Switch 2 launches with cross-gen releases and that's a good argument, but do they really mean that? If so, the DS and 3DS both had a 9 year life, so the Switch would have at least 10 years before they stop shipping it, right? If the Switch 2 launches next May that suggests that the Switch 1 would keep being produced into it's successor's fourth year. Unlikely and not very realistic. Based on that I conclude that it's more likely that Furukawa means that the timeframe between Switch launch and the launch of it's successor is intended to be longer than usual. 7 years fits the bill there.

Additionally currently they are still suffering under semiconductor shortages and experience record software sales that could continue far into 2023 without issue. A successor launching in May next year would mean the shortest period between reveal and release of a console Nintendo has ever had and lead to massive even bigger shortages for the Switch 2. "That software can be played on new hardware" says @ILikeFeet but how many Switch 2 units would Nintendo be able to produce in time if at this point there aren't even any signs of them being in production at all?
Having a $400 system for performance enthusiasts (not the biggest part of Nintendo's audience) on it's own is not a good reason to launch it asap. A new console will have a way smaller profit margin and would potentially make less profit than the current $300 Switch. The audience is still incredibly active and software sales are extremely strong.

The GBA to DS transition is a bad comparison, before anyone does that, because they had the looming threat of the PSP on the horizon. There is no such competition in sight now. 2023 is that year they should ride out with big software sales, several more mid sized games that haven't been announced yet and ideally another big game for the holiday. Mario Kart DLC, Splatoon 3 (being a live service game) having just launched and potential Pokémon S/V DLC next year are further things that make a May 2023 launch very unlikely imo.

The Red and Orange scenarios are complete nonsense. The green scenario is flawed but as a whole not unlikely. The blue scenario is not unlikely either.
 
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The timing of the hardware release also makes one wonder if a few of the currently released/announced Switch titles like Splatoon 3 or TOTK would end up getting the MK8D treatment on the Switch successor
 
fiendcode said:
Years before a successor hits market:

FC: 7.5 years
SFC: 6 years
N64: 5 years
GC: 5 years
Wii: 6 years
Wii U: 4.5 years

GB: 12 years
GBA: 3.5 years
DS: 6 years
3DS: 6 years

NSW: 6 years and counting...
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Until any evidence otherwise, I’m still going to take multiple Nintendo statements over the last 2 years as fact…they see Switch having an unusually long life cycle compared to what we normally view console lifecycles.

Switch is currently in the middle of its life cycle and “ready to break a pattern of our past consoles”…Furukawa said this in 2022, just this year.

Releasing a “successor” in 2023 would be exactly what one would consider a normal pattern of console lifecycle treatment. They see 5 years in as the “mid point” when past consoles lifecycles saw ~2-3 years in as a midpoint.

This is all to say, there is no use looking at normal console years nor looking at this new model as a “successor” type thing.

My viewpoint now, is an announcment of the Switch premium/upgrade model in Jan/Feb with a March 2023 release.

(Especially considering their sales goals. They expect to sell ~13 million units the second half of the FY which I don’t think is possible without new hardware being in the mix)

Most Nintendo published games for the next 4-5 years will be playable on the current Switches as well. Drake will only get a handful of exclusives from Nintendo that won’t be playable on the OLED. Mostly considered “niche” type games that utilize tensor core AI in gameplay or something like that that the OLED Switch simply cannot do.

They aren’t going to use big Nintendo games to try and drive Switch gamers to expensive new hardware. Quick adoption rate for Drake isn’t necessary.

A true Switch “successor” will probably be around 2026/2027 where you start to see a concerted effort by Nintendo to slow down software/services support for the current 100+ million Switch models out there
 
Red leading the pole is hilarious, why would Nintendo unveil the exact launch date of Zelda if it was meant to launch the successor? I guess we don't remember Nintendo holding off on Zelda BoTW launch date until after Switch was revealed. Nintendo could have easily just said Spring 2023 and left it at that but instead gave us an exact date. Surprise us with Switch 2 and Zelda launch date if that was the plan.

I'm leaning towards sometime in 2024 due to Zelda not seemingly being timed with Switch 2. Holiday 2023 is still possible but at that point why not just time with Zelda. My pick is orange because I think they have one final send off for Switch like the rumored 3D Donkey Kong or whatever the Mario Odyssey team has been doing. Switch 2023 looks pretty solid already with what has been announced, finish the year with Pikmin 4, Metroid Prime 4, another WiiU port (Xenoblade X), and final send off with 3D Donkey Kong or Mario Odyssey 2. Sprinkle in 3rd support and the major dlc releases like Mario Kart, Pokemon, and Spaltoon 3.
 
ILikeFeet said:
why should they wait though? that software can be played on new hardware, probably with better performance. and said hardware would be more expensive, so those who are eager for better performance would jump in immediately and still buy the same software. by putting out new hardware sooner, Nintendo would make more money through folks buying a $400+ system
Click to expand...
Nintendo likes to boast to their investors about revenue growth each year. They are indifferent as to whether the majority of revenue comes from hardware or software revenue. If Nintendo thinks they can continue their streak of yearly revenue growth without new hardware in FY 2024 due to strong software sales to compensate for falling hardware revenue, they may elect to do that and then release the successor the next fiscal year (FY 2025). That would start FY 2025 with a big boost in hardware revenue. I'm not saying they will, it is just one strategy to achieve their goal of revenue growth each year.
 
BTB123 said:
Why would they announce the next hardware before the current fiscal year ends?
Click to expand...

That’s all I was getting that with that one.

Nenned said:
Nintendo still have some multi-million selling IPs that have yet to have an original release on Switch such as
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I don’t really think this would be a limiting point, as games will be BC and won’t be original releases. And even in the case that it release during the moments of those titles releasing, they would be built with the switch in mind first and foremost anyway.

A portion of the ones listed anyway.
Kenka said:
Noooo Reddread, you brought that insanity here :x
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The madness was already bubbling, it just needed a little push in the right direction. ;)
Aostia82 said:
I mean if you put the game on DlsSwitch, hardware will read it anyway improving output and performance
Click to expand...
Oh, they’d just run at the highest they are set to run.
 
Nenned said:
Nintendo likes to boast to their investors about revenue growth each year. They are indifferent as to whether the majority of revenue comes from hardware or software revenue. If Nintendo thinks they can continue their streak of yearly revenue growth without new hardware in FY 2024 due to strong software sales to compensate for falling hardware revenue, they may elect to do that and then release the successor the next fiscal year (FY 2025). That would start FY 2025 with a big boost in hardware revenue. I'm not saying they will, it is just one strategy to achieve their goal of revenue growth each year.
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the biggest problem with this idea is that it assumes they can change the release date of hardware based on a recent quarter's results. that's not how hardware is made. it's based on predictions made long in advance and simply holding onto materials because you decided to wait wastes money. not only that, you still could have made more revenue by releasing than not releasing. releasing hardware wouldn't impact software sales, so if that was still high, then added revenue would have come from the increased revenue from new consoles
 
ReddDreadtheLead said:
Nintendo has literally held software before for when they need it, why is this a different scenario.
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Yes and they changed their development pipeline as a result. They talked about this a lot in the Wii U era. Nothing stopping any major release for Switch 2 being brought forward to Switch. The only big games it doesn’t work for are Mario Kart and Smash - which are generational releases.

The rest can release on Switch.
 
unkindlynice said:
Yes and they changed their development pipeline as a result. They talked about this a lot in the Wii U era. Nothing stopping any major release for Switch 2 being brought forward to Switch. The only big games it doesn’t work for are Mario Kart and Smash - which are generational releases.

The rest can release on Switch.
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If they release a lot of the major releases for the Switch 2 as cross gen, it majorly undermines a purpose of why someone should buy it for some time.
 
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ILikeFeet said:
the biggest problem with this idea is that it assumes they can change the release date of hardware based on a recent quarter's results. that's not how hardware is made. it's based on predictions made long in advance and simply holding onto materials because you decided to wait wastes money. not only that, you still could have made more revenue by releasing than not releasing. releasing hardware wouldn't impact software sales, so if that was still high, then added revenue would have come from the increased revenue from new consoles
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They would not make a decision based on a recent quarter's results. Nintendo at the end of this fiscal year will give investors their outlook for the next fiscal year. That will include how much hardware they expect to sell next FY. I am sure they have a whole dedicated team that predicts next FY's results per quarter based on a ton of metrics and variables that we are not privy to in order to arrive at this figure. They should be able to make the determination at that point if the successor is a FY 2024 or 2025 release based on that data. Sure, their predictions could be way off and force them to release earlier than they had planned, but their original plans of a FY 2024 or 2025 release should be known by end of this FY.

As for 2024 releases, I can see:

Exclusive:

- 3D Mario
- Mario Kart
- Astral Chain 2
- Monolithsoft ARPG if it is actually a thing
- New IP that takes advantage of some new functionality of the successor

Cross-Gen:

- 2D Zelda
- 2D Kirby
- Pokemon Black/White Remakes
- Fire Emblem Remake
- Bandai Namco Action Title Remake
- Captain Toad 2
- Rhythm Heaven
 
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My Tulpa said:
Until any evidence otherwise, I’m still going to take multiple Nintendo statements over the last 2 years as fact…they see Switch having an unusually long life cycle compared to what we normally view console lifecycles.

Switch is currently in the middle of its life cycle and “ready to break a pattern of our past consoles”…Furukawa said this in 2022, just this year.

Releasing a “successor” in 2023 would be exactly what one would consider a normal pattern of console lifecycle treatment. They see 5 years in as the “mid point” when past consoles lifecycles saw ~2-3 years in as a midpoint.

This is all to say, there is no use looking at normal console years nor looking at this new model as a “successor” type thing.

My viewpoint now, is an announcment of the Switch premium/upgrade model in Jan/Feb with a March 2023 release.

(Especially considering their sales goals. They expect to sell ~13 million units the second half of the FY which I don’t think is possible without new hardware being in the mix)

Most Nintendo published games for the next 4-5 years will be playable on the current Switches as well. Drake will only get a handful of exclusives from Nintendo that won’t be playable on the OLED. Mostly considered “niche” type games that utilize tensor core AI in gameplay or something like that that the OLED Switch simply cannot do.

They aren’t going to use big Nintendo games to try and drive Switch gamers to expensive new hardware. Quick adoption rate for Drake isn’t necessary.

A true Switch “successor” will probably be around 2026/2027 where you start to see a concerted effort by Nintendo to slow down software/services support for the current 100+ million Switch models out there
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I feel like this is what will happen.
 
Nenned said:
They would not make a decision based on a recent quarter's results. Nintendo at the end of this fiscal year will give investors their outlook for the next fiscal year. That will include how much hardware they expect to sell next FY. I am sure they have a whole dedicated team that predicts next FY's results per quarter based on a ton of metrics and variables that we are not privy to in order to arrive at this figure. They should be able to make the determination at that point if the successor is a FY 2024 or 2025 release based on that data. Sure, their predictions could be way off and force them to release earlier than they had planned, but their original plans of a FY 2024 or 2025 release should be known by end of this FY.
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the determination point probably would have come sooner than that given chip production can take up to six months to a year. and wafer allocation is bought up some time before that
 
ReddDreadtheLead said:
The madness was already bubbling, it just needed a little push in the right direction. ;)
Click to expand...

Now I have a reason for posting in this thread. The following is just my opinion based on my experiences with the Wii U Speculation Threads and the NX speculation threads in previous forums. Hardware speculation threads end up being very counter-productive, I would suggest to anyone participating to give their opinion of what they think will happen and then just leave the thread and never come back. There are so many things you could do with your time that would be more productive than to spend every day following rumours and waiting to hear from the random "insider" that appears in the thread to string everyone along by leaving vague posts.

Think about this for a moment, every year since before the Switch even released in 2017, there were speculation threads and rumour threads about a Switch Pro. It is now 2022, if you have been spending a significant amount of time every year speculating about a Switch Pro then I'm sure you regret wasting all that time because honestly, what are you getting out of it? If you can spend all those hours making posts every day about hardware speculation, then you can surely do something more productive with your time.

I remember how angry people were in the Wii U speculation threads because they spent all that time hyping themselves up over what they thought the Wii U was going to be that my experience with watching the E3 event where it was revealed was very different to theirs. I also remember in the NX speculation threads how I wasted my time arguing with people on Twitter who were spreading rumours that were completely baseless because they were expecting Nintendo to release a "PS4 Pro with x86 CPU architecture" style console.

In the end, all that time spent reading or posting in hardware speculation threads gave nothing of value in return. I already had the skills to be critical when checking sources and seeing how people take quotes out of context to give their own interpretation i.e. The most common one being the: "Iwata said NX was not going to be a hybrid!", that one was always a pain in the ass because it was easy to debunk but someone new would always come along and bring it up. All that time spent didn't make my skills better since it was the same thing over and over again. I would have been better off doing something else with my time because the decisions you make can really affect you in the long term.

You can make the decision to post/read in hardware speculation threads a lot and then come back years later thinking you could have done something much better with your time or, you can make the decision to start managing your time better to at least do something productive that will benefit you in the long-term. Yes, you have to put in a lot more effort to do something productive and yet you'll still get something out of it that it could be applicable to something in the future that it doesn't become a waste of time.
 
SoonyXboneUhh said:
I don't care at this point anymore. I just want to know it exists and when it comes out.
Switch sales will slow down in 2023. I don't know the extend, but not having a successor during holidays 2023 or end of fiscal year 2024 would be a huge mistake.

Nintendo generally has shorter generations. So I'm a little in disbelieve.
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The Nvidia hack and the linux commitments already have shown it not only exists, but the SoC is already basically finalized, if it hasn't entered full manufacturing yet, it should do so soon.

My Tulpa said:
Until any evidence otherwise, I’m still going to take multiple Nintendo statements over the last 2 years as fact…they see Switch having an unusually long life cycle compared to what we normally view console lifecycles.

Switch is currently in the middle of its life cycle and “ready to break a pattern of our past consoles”…Furukawa said this in 2022, just this year.

Releasing a “successor” in 2023 would be exactly what one would consider a normal pattern of console lifecycle treatment. They see 5 years in as the “mid point” when past consoles lifecycles saw ~2-3 years in as a midpoint.

This is all to say, there is no use looking at normal console years nor looking at this new model as a “successor” type thing.

My viewpoint now, is an announcment of the Switch premium/upgrade model in Jan/Feb with a March 2023 release.

(Especially considering their sales goals. They expect to sell ~13 million units the second half of the FY which I don’t think is possible without new hardware being in the mix)

Most Nintendo published games for the next 4-5 years will be playable on the current Switches as well. Drake will only get a handful of exclusives from Nintendo that won’t be playable on the OLED. Mostly considered “niche” type games that utilize tensor core AI in gameplay or something like that that the OLED Switch simply cannot do.

They aren’t going to use big Nintendo games to try and drive Switch gamers to expensive new hardware. Quick adoption rate for Drake isn’t necessary.

A true Switch “successor” will probably be around 2026/2027 where you start to see a concerted effort by Nintendo to slow down software/services support for the current 100+ million Switch models out there
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Have you seen the specs from the hack and the leaks? Drake is in no way just an upgrade of the Switch, it's a completely different architecture and even in the worst scenario (minimum frequencies possible) it'd easily surpass the Switch and even PS4 powerwise before DLSS, that is not something one can call just a Switch Pro, at that point it's a complete successor, no matter how Nintendo wants to market it. It most likely give the Series S good competition in certain areas too, like RT and may even have more RAM available. If they really wanted to make a Switch Pro, they'd probably just shrink the TX1 again for a TX1++ and increase it's frequencies, maybe they'd also improve the CPU, as many games are limited by it. That'd be enough for an upgraded model. I need to add that because they are different architectures, games for Switch will only run in Drake's compatibility mode, they aren't autoported to it, thus they need to be manually ported... which means having 2 versions of the game, which means it's not just an upgrade. That's why I said that if they wanted an upgrade they'd keep the TX1 and just improve it more.
 
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BTB123 said:
Shuntaro Furukawa has often stated that they plan for the Switch to have a longer than usual life cycle. As you can see up above in @fiendcode 's post 6 years isn't really longer than usual. It's more like the standard. Of course then you can say that it will still be alive after the Switch 2 launches with cross-gen releases and that's a good argument, but do they really mean that?
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Yes, they will support the Switch after the new hardware launches. This is why they now report average annual players - they want to grow total engagement while maintaining engagement on prior platforms.

Longer life cycle also means that Nintendo also supports the system better within its life cycle. Yes, prior generations were about six years each, but they entered a decline phase after your three, typically, because Nintendo needed to start ramping up software development for the next console. They are not abandoning the switch after year 3 this time around.
 
Nenned said:
Nintendo likes to boast to their investors about revenue growth each year. They are indifferent as to whether the majority of revenue comes from hardware or software revenue.
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I don’t recall them every saying this. Source?

If fact, my perspective is the opposite bc their newest financial incentives are a 3-year average operating profit.
 
None of the above.

First announcement at (what would be) E3 2023, release in March 2024.

Rightfully, if Nintendo hadn't grown complacent, it should really be coming out in 2023; but that's clearly not going to happen now. Hopefully the current Switch doesn't completely fall off a cliff before March 2024... because that would mean that Nintendo would have another Wii U situation on their hands as a result... Either way, they've made a mistake by waiting too long to announce and release a successor; the question now is how much of a mistake they have made and how much the "Switch" branding is going to die off throughout this upcoming year...

The last thing Nintendo need is to repeat the same mistake as with the Wii U... waiting too long to release a successor and eventually releasing a new console using a dead brand.

The second question as well, is what Nintendo will have available to release during that launch window... They've wasted TOTK, Switch Sports, Xenoblade 3, Splatoon 3 and Bayonetta 3 on the current Switch model, while Mario Kart definitely won't be coming out early in the Switch 2's life, since the team are currently busy with the MK8 DLC and winding down support for MKT on mobile. So I think that their big launch games will be a new 3D Mario title (which will probably a BOTW style open world game), since it should really be ready by March 2024 (Roughly 4 years after Bowser's Fury & almost 7 years after Mario Odyssey), and Metroid Prime 4 (also probably an open world game, given that this was the original plan for Metroid Prime 3). Will that be enough? Hard to say...
 
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It would help if we knew what Furukawa's definitions of these terms are. "Longer lifecycle than usual" could just mean a return to an NES/Famicom situation, where they stuck around and continued to meet with success long after new hardware arrived and has not been replicated exactly the same since. Or it could mean they're hoping for a Game Boy situation. It's impossible to know without finite details that are never provided. Same thing with Switch being the "middle" of its lifecycle, it requires a definition of what the "end" looks like, as I've brought up before, and no one can definitively say what is meant by this, because it could just mean that they expect software and hardware sales after a new hardware launch, including with new software releases and continued support for Switch by Nintendo.
We need to define these terms, otherwise, everyone can just ascribe whatever meaning they want to them.
 
DCSales said:
None of the above.

First announcement at (what would be) E3 2023, release in March 2024.
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Just so you know this puts you in the green pile still.
DCSales said:
Rightfully, if Nintendo hadn't grown complacent
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They really haven’t grown complacent, they just didn’t expect this success to be this good.
Notsowise said:
If a new hardware is coming, it’s 23 Christmas. Not before… i find it very hard that nintendo will try again another non-Christmas launch.
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It’s not the first time they’ve done non-Christmas launches. They’ve done it multiple times really.

even on successful consoles.
 
Reading the discussion it really feels like:
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The poll. :)
 
I can't exclude a new system launching after 6 years, but acting like it's a done deal after years of imminent more powerful "New Switch" launch predictions and constant goalpost moving, is something I won't take seriously.

What we know for sure, is that Nintendo wants an extended lifecycle and 2023 looks like another good year for Nintendo Switch.

I'll enjoy the party and will take the more reasonable wait and see approach.
 
VashDaStampede said:
I can’t imagine a less likely scenario than a mid-2023 announcement for a 2024 release, killing sales during holiday 2023.

Strong disagree.
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You mean... a normal console announcement to release cycle? Like every other console that has ever been released in the whole history of the medium?

Consoles aren't mobile phones. They need a significant amount of lead-time from announcement to release in order to get stakeholders on-board and 3rd party support going prior to launch. All consoles get announced at least 1 year prior to their respective release (usually quite a bit more actually). This timeline would actually still be significantly compressed compared to the industry standard as I'm suggesting it.

That's how ridiculously late Nintendo have left the announcement of Switch 2.
 
ReddDreadtheLead said:
If they release a lot of the major releases for the Switch 2 as cross gen, it majorly undermines a purpose of why someone should buy it for some time.
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Considering how many games look and perform on Switch i dont think they will need too much convincing on why people with modern TV sets and expectation would want to upgrade. Hell the SWOLED is the best selling Switch and many upgrade to that system despite the games running the same.

Let alone the fact that its gonna be difficult to get a Switch 2 early on anyway, unless they charge 600 bucks for it i dont think lack of demand for the systems is gonna be an issue in its first two years.
 
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