Atlus output strategy | Discussion thread

[Oregano]

Thing is, all these games arent announced for any system yet - but they are being used as negative against the Switch support and Pro for the other systems. We dont know when an how the next NieR is gonna show up, same deal with Persona. The next couple releases are Switch bound and the 3 Remake that is somewhat based on P5R should be on Switch as well. P6 isnt happening anytime soon. Automata has been out for nearly 6 years already and outside of one Remaster the fans been waiting years as well for a new game.

Fans on other systems been waiting ages for some of these games as well, dont know why we act as if only Nintendo customers or Switch owners have to play the waiting game. By the time some of these games hit Drake will probably have been out for 2-3 years as well, so i dont see how helpful it is to even expect some of these games to still arrive on the OG Switch.

Yeah, and a Soul Hackers sequel from the TMS team using SMTV assets should be on Switch as well?

I feel like you're willfully missing the point a bit. Those games aren't announced for anything else but based on Atlus current strategy as we know it we can make a pretty safe guess as to what systems they'll be hitting, otherwise we wouldn't be telling people to not complain about them inevitably skipping Switch.

... and you're missing the other point, Persona 6 and Nier 3 if they're in development right now are not Switch games, and they're not Drake games. Fans on other systems have to wait for follow ups but they'll be there day 1, there's fundamentally a track of games being produced, that isn't the case for Switch or its follow up.

 

[cw_sasuke]

Yeah, and a Soul Hackers sequel from the TMS team using SMTV assets should be on Switch as well?

I feel like you're willfully missing the point a bit. Those games aren't announced for anything else but based on Atlus current strategy as we know it we can make a pretty safe guess as to what systems they'll be hitting, otherwise we wouldn't be telling people to not complain about them inevitably skipping Switch.

... and you're missing the other point, Persona 6 and Nier 3 if they're in development right now are not Switch games, and they're not Drake games. Fans on other systems have to wait for follow ups but they'll be there day 1, there's fundamentally a track of games being produced, that isn't the case for Switch or its follow up.

They just released their biggest game, P5R, on Switch this week.
So im not quite following you, with the based on their current strategy. P5R is a much bigger and more important game than SH2. First Persona mainline game on Switch, very likely to be another million seller from Atlus/Sega on Switch alone after SMT V which should be there atp as well.

So they released a million seller in 2021(SMTV), very likely another one in 2022(P5R), yet for some reason all future games cant be on Switch/Drake ?

Based on their "current strategy" aka SH 2(PS/Xbox/PC) which underperformed Persona 6 and ReFantasy should be (PS/Xbox/PC) as well and we know how unlikely that is. There is no strategy that paints such a negative picture on on their Nintendo support, unless you really overestimate what SH 2 meant for the company as a project.

PS. Why wouldnt NieR or future Persona (outside of the Sony secured ones) game be on Drake if the hardware allows for it ? SE is literally one of the biggest Nintendo supporters out there.

 

[Tokuiten]

Based on this hardline argument you are saying that Atlus never properly supported the DS or 3DS - just because it didnt receive a handful of "big" games that were on consoles or Playstation ? I disagree.

People just love to big up every game as big and ambitious the moment its not on Switch and HD Twins only, we have seen how that worked out for SH2.

I doubt a full blow EO Next with UE4/5 foundation would be released a some kind of niche game in a world where even SH2 got a global simultaneous release.

Atlus is more than just Persona.

I find that a curious thing to say in response to my posting, cw_sasuke. I'm looking at the list of Atlus-games here and it's obvious imo that Atlus not only properly supported NDS and 3DS, but favored these systems over PlayStation 3, 4 and Vita! You're hopefully not saying a Soul Hackers 2 for PS5 is on the same level of support as a Devil Survivor for NDS?

Up until Persona 5, Atlus basically was primarily developing for Nintendo-systems. Then with Persona 5 came the switch (lower s!). Some remainders kept Nintendo-support up for some time, but PlayStation-support was ramping up, more and more focus went to Persona and spinoffs that, with the exception of Persona Q, also only existed on PlayStation. And since Catherine: Full Body, support for Nintendo-games has basically dried up outside of Nintendo-funded projects. When I look at the past years of Atlus support, this is what I get:

- Catherine: Full Body (only later for Switch)
- Persona 5 Royal (only MUCH later for Switch)
- 13 Sentinels (again only later for Switch)
- Persona 5 Strikers (multiplat)
- SMT3 (multiplat)
- Soul Hackers 2 (not Nintendo)
- Re:Fantasy (likely not Nintendo)
- Persona 6 (likely not Nintendo)

1) Compare this to NDS- and 3DS-support and it's night and day. So many great Atlus-games for those older Nintendo-systems, and super ambitious stuff, too, like Radiant Historia or all the SMT-spinoffs that made full use of the hardware.
2) Where do you see future Switch 1/2-support existing? Maybe a SMT6 down the line and a very niche EO. But otherwise?

 

[Oregano]

They just released their biggest game, P5R, on Switch this week.
So im not quite following you, with the based on their current strategy. P5R is a much bigger and more important game than SH2. First Persona mainline game on Switch, very likely to be another million seller from Atlus/Sega on Switch alone after SMT V which should be there atp as well.

So they released a million seller in 2021(SMTV), very likely another one in 2022(P5R), yet for some reason all future games cant be on Switch/Drake ?

Based on their "current strategy" aka SH 2(PS/Xbox/PC) which underperformed Persona 6 and ReFantasy should be (PS/Xbox/PC) as well and we know how unlikely that is. There is no strategy that paints such a negative picture on on their Nintendo support, unless you really overestimate what SH 2 meant for the company as a project.

PS. Why wouldnt NieR or future Persona (outside of the Sony secured ones) game be on Drake if the hardware allows for it ? SE is literally one of the biggest Nintendo supporters out there.

Persona 5 R is a port of a three old game which is a re-release of a 6 year old of a PS3(!) game. You're looking backwards instead of forwards. What do you think they have in production right now that could be released on Switch?

As to the bolded it literally just took 5+ years for those games to come to Switch despite the hardware allowing it and any sequels to those games likely entered production long before any potential new hardware was a factor. We've literally just gone through several years of publishers not having projects in a position to launch on Switch, for good or bad reasons.

In Nier's case Replicant hasn't even been released on Switch despite being mostly a remaster of a PS3 game.

 

[Tungsten]

PS4?

It got Persona 5, the two internally developed Persona dancing games, Soul Hackers 2, and whatever else the next few years entails. It will inevitably get SMTV as well if you're counting P5R in Switch's favour.

But the issue is that this perspective is looking backwards. What are the future Atlus games? You say EO Next but the EO Director was working on SMTV for the last five years and is probably now working on porting that game to everything else.

I don't think the idea of Re Fantasy and Persona 6 skipping Switch is remotely surprising, and shouldn't be controversial but I don't get why we're pretending Atlus support isn't at a dead end then?


EDIT: Actually I think the fact that the Nier Automata and Persona 5 Royal ports are functionally dead ends for those publishers is pretty fascinating. The only follow ups they have are their less popular predecessors.

I don't think PS4 SMTV is inevitable. Those tags were removed from the game I subsequent patches and WW (minus JP) Nintendo published 3rd party games are often console exclusive and only see PC ports, with the exception of the first Octopath but that was clearly MS money for Game Pass. That said, I am surprised we haven't had SMTV for PC announced yet.

 

[skulkidcachi90]

Atlus really miss a great chance with switch.
Like damn, they really mess their chances this time.
Thank god Persona 5 port is doing great that should help to compensate the Soul Hackers 2 flop.

 

[Person]

New Steam peak of 35k.

 

[BoktaiFan]

Atlus really miss a great chance with switch.
Like damn, they really mess their chances this time.
Thank god Persona 5 port is doing great that should help to compensate the Soul Hackers 2 flop.

It is crazy to me theat Atlus and Level 5 were very prolific on 3DS and saw a bunch of success and both have basically missed the entire switch generation.

 

[Phantom Thief]

P5R is now the #3 bestselling game on the US eShop

 

[mousielilone]

It is crazy to me theat Atlus and Level 5 were very prolific on 3DS and saw a bunch of success and both have basically missed the entire switch generation.

Level 5 had other issues. And they are chasing mobile money. I think if they weren’t trying that angle they would be doing Switch games

 

[shoptroll]

Atlus's and Yoko Taro's games do not have technical budgets on par with Final Fantasy games. I would not bet against any of their upcoming titles being PS4/PS5/(Switch or Drake) if they're coming in 2023/2024.

But with how long they're taking to announce Persona 6 it will likely at least have the same 8 year release gap between it and 5 as there was between 5 and 4.

After doing some research...

Part of the reason there was a sizable gap between 4 and 5 was because that team also released Catherine (I don't remember how much involvement they had with P4 Golden) in that same period.

This is splitting hairs for convenience, but the new team took over starting with Royal right? If they're looking to do something similar with Soul Hackers 2 where they hold off announcing the title until it's mostly done, and if they're serious about wanting to have something to announce soon then I think we're looking at a 2023, maybe 2024 release date. Which would put them on a timeline closer to 4-5 years which is pretty average for the industry.

OG P5 was about 5 years of development so I rescind my earlier comment about Studio Zero not delivering in a timely fashion.

It got Persona 5, the two internally developed Persona dancing games, Soul Hackers 2, and whatever else the next few years entails. It will inevitably get SMTV as well if you're counting P5R in Switch's favour.

Do you think Switch and XBox won't inevitably get the 3 dancing games as well?

Also, I wouldn't expect SMTV to land on other platforms. Bayonetta 2 hasn't shown up even on PC yet and that's another Nintendo/Sega joint.

 

[Oregano]

Do you think Switch and XBox won't inevitably get the 3 dancing games as well? Just feels odd to cherry pick SMT V as a counter-argument for PS4 and discard what are likely going to be follow-up ports for the other systems.

Also, I wouldn't expect SMTV to land on other platforms. Bayonetta 2 hasn't shown up even on PC yet and that's another Nintendo/Sega joint.

Those games bombed, really badly. They could have been ported to Switch long ago if they really wanted.

Bayonetta 2 is actually owned by Nintendo and is a first party release. It's not comparable.

 

[mousielilone]

P5R is now the #3 bestselling game on the US eShop

I hope we get a sales update.

Those games bombed, really badly. They could have been ported to Switch long ago if they really wanted.

Catherine Fully Body didn’t do well and they still ported it.. To Switch anyway. I can’t see them bringing the dancing games to the Xbox ever. But they at least have Strikers to bring to Xbox (in order …)

 

[Phantom Thief]

They explicitly promised more Persona on Switch beyond the remasters so I think we're going to get at least some more spin off ports if nothing else. The Dancing games are prime candidates, and if rumours of the Persona 3 remake are real, I can see that being PS/PC/Xbox/Switch at launch as well.

 

[awng782]

Persona 5 Royale's peak CCU has beaten that of Persona 4 Golden, but not significantly so. The price tag will limit its sales to some degree.

 

[nayu]

My bet right now is that the Atlus team developing P6 is doing so with PS4/PS5 as the only target. The multiplatform release will be something done via outsourcing / Sega's involvement if it does happen, but I expect Sony to try to lock a deal for timed exclusivity.

 

[Person]

I think Atlus output has clearly changed, but little to none of that has to do with less desire to support Nintendo systems. As they’ve moved / are moving entirely into HD development, their total output has dropped significantly. Industry wide, even studios even studios that were already only doing HD games have seen widening gaps in their release cadence.

It would be unusual to see a subsidiary like Atlus, much less experienced than most in this area, to do better than the overall industry.

 

[mousielilone]

I think Atlus output has clearly changed, but little to none of that has to do with less desire to support Nintendo systems. As they’ve moved / are moving entirely into HD development, their total output has dropped significantly. Industry wide, even studios even studios that were already only doing HD games have seen widening gaps in their release cadence.

It would be unusual to see a subsidiary like Atlus, much less experienced than most in this area, to do better than the overall industry.

Here’s the issue, while I don’t disagree with this stamens of HD output; Covid had literally ransacked game development. 2023 has plenty of games meant to come out much earlier. Not to mention other global issues like the war in the Ukraine. It’s hard to say what the cadence does truly look like yet.

 

[Oregano]

HD development explains the lack of Etrian Odyssey, because the team had to merge with the SMT team to develop SMTV. But at the same time that's happening P-Studio split into two and started working on two major games, and the other part of Atlus that was focused on Nintendo systems developed a game for PS/XB/PC.

At the end of the day there might be less resources, but there is also less going towards the Switch/Nintendo platforms at this point. The lack of output, if anything, makes it worse.

 

[Joseki]

.

 

[Terrell]

Sorry, but some of you are making an awful lot of excuses for Atlus to further ignore the Switch. At the end of the day, can we agree that Atlus SHOULD try to put their games on Switch? Ignoring the market leader, the #1 system for jrpgs, too. And Atlus is not some tech-power house, implaying that their games require PS5-power is, frankly, absurd.

Who mentioned PS5? Games that target PS4-level specs frequently need their bones broken to fit the specs, with no small amount of effort to make that happen.
What I'm arguing is, should they be there for Switch near the end of its cycle and fight harder against its technical restraints or early to the market leader that comes after it where such a struggle is not likely to exist?
I don’t think it’s arguable that Switch releases would not be preferable, but it’s important to work within the info we have now.

That's not a sustainable strategy, Atlus(and most other publishers) do not have a whole bunch of PS4 games to port any more and in Atlus' case(and others) are evidently not working to Switch specs for new games.

It’s like you didn’t read past what you bolded, where I said Atlus’ future games do not meet either criteria regarding what future Switch support will be. Plus, to what I bolded, you also said…

we're talking about a publisher who could put an enhanced PS3 game on Vita in 2019(2 years after Switch launched) and is potentially going to be launching PS4 games when the platform is 10+ years old. They released PS2 games post-PS3 and 3DS games post Switch.

So, do they have PS4 games coming or not? You seem to be oscillating on whether or not that’s the case. Choose one.

 

[Phantom Thief]

P5R has hit #2 on the eShop

 

[AruanaRiva]

Level 5 had other issues. And they are chasing mobile money. I think if they weren’t trying that angle they would be doing Switch games

L5 is chasing nothing in the end. As not only their Switch support dried up. Their multiplat tactics bomb like hell, they don't even have any mobile game success to show off.

What a mess

 

[Oregano]

Who mentioned PS5? Games that target PS4-level specs frequently need their bones broken to fit the specs, with no small amount of effort to make that happen.
What I'm arguing is, should they be there for Switch near the end of its cycle and fight harder against its technical restraints or early to the market leader that comes after it where such a struggle is not likely to exist?
I don’t think it’s arguable that Switch releases would not be preferable, but it’s important to work within the info we have now.

It’s like you didn’t read past what you bolded, where I said Atlus’ future games do not meet either criteria regarding what future Switch support will be. Plus, to what I bolded, you also said…

So, do they have PS4 games coming or not? You seem to be oscillating on whether or not that’s the case. Choose one.

What on Earth are you even on about?

I never once suggested they wouldn't have future PS4 games?

You're the one who said that Atlus' current/future games are not suitable for Switch?

 

[Tokuiten]

Who mentioned PS5? Games that target PS4-level specs frequently need their bones broken to fit the specs, with no small amount of effort to make that happen.
What I'm arguing is, should they be there for Switch near the end of its cycle and fight harder against its technical restraints or early to the market leader that comes after it where such a struggle is not likely to exist?
I don’t think it’s arguable that Switch releases would not be preferable, but it’s important to work within the info we have now.

Terrell, pls tell us: Which Atlus-game for PS4 could not have easily run on Switch for a day 1-release? Catherine? Persona 5 Royal? 13 Sentinels? Soul Hackers 2? The arguably most ambitious Atlus-game in existence is SMT5, a Switch-title.

You're making a statement that could be taken as true for ports like Witcher 3 or Dragon Quest 11. But Atlus? Atlus is no highend-tech developer. They're famously known to take forever for developing a game, causing the tech of their games always to somewhat outdated, but balanced out by their great art design. There is no Atlus-game in existence that needed to "have its bones broken" so it could be re-arranged for the Switch' hardware. Really confused about your posting.

P5R has hit #2 on the eShop

Oh man, the extreme shift to digital might make me lose my prediction league-prediction despite secretly winning it

 

[AruanaRiva]

Terrell, pls tell us: Which Atlus-game for PS4 could not have easily run on Switch for a day 1-release? Catherine? Persona 5 Royal? 13 Sentinels? Soul Hackers 2? The arguably most ambitious Atlus-game in existence is SMT5, a Switch-title.

You're making a statement that could be taken as true for ports like Witcher 3 or Dragon Quest 11. But Atlus? Atlus is no highend-tech developer. They're famously known to take forever for developing a game, causing the tech of their games always to somewhat outdated, but balanced out by their great art design. There is no Atlus-game in existence that needed to "have its bones broken" so it could be re-arranged for the Switch' hardware. Really confused about your posting.

Oh man, the extreme shift to digital might make me lose my prediction league-prediction despite secretly winning it

Everything can't run on Switch till it can lol.

 

[skulkidcachi90]

At this point I think is just a matter of time.
Like after the Automata sales is obviously ported to Switch later, the sales of Persona 5 on switch are kinda blowing up big time and that should make Atlus question if treat the console like second class maybe isn't the best move.

 

[Person]

Maybe you guys think super highly of Soul Hackers 2, but if I was someone who didn’t have a Switch I would trade everything the Switch missed out on in the modern era from Atlus in exchange for SMTV and I wouldn’t even blink.

 

[fiendcode]

After these initial P5R sales, I feel pretty sure Switch and Steam will also see at least P3R.

 

[cw_sasuke]

Maybe you guys think super highly of Soul Hackers 2, but if I was someone who didn’t have a Switch I would trade everything the Switch missed out on in the modern era from Atlus in exchange for SMTV and I wouldn’t even blink.

The funny thing is in the past even big efforts like SMT V were downplay because Switch didnt recieve mainline Persona games. Now its getting mainline Persona games, that will be very successful and pretty much outsell most other 3rdParty JRPGs on the platform - but people are still complaining.

P5R and the other ports doing numbers will establish the fact that these mainline games will do numbers on a Nintendo system, so the platforms gonna be considered for all future games unless moneyhats are involved and/or hardware related shortcomings.

Looking forward to Drake unveiling, SMT/Atlus were among the earliest mayor announcements for the Switch 5 years ago. I dont think its gonna be much different this time.

 

[fiendcode]

But the issue is that this perspective is looking backwards. What are the future Atlus games? You say EO Next but the EO Director was working on SMTV for the last five years and is probably now working on porting that game to everything else.

If SMTV ports are happening, they're almost certainly being farmed out (Sonic Team, ArtDink, I.T.L., etc). The core of Team Maniax and SQ Project will move on to new titles, probably either a SMTV direct sequel or EO6.

 

[Tokuiten]

The funny thing is in the past even big efforts like SMT V were downplay because Switch didnt recieve mainline Persona games. Now its getting mainline Persona games, that will be very successful and pretty much outsell most other 3rdParty JRPGs on the platform - but people are still complaining.

P5R and the other ports doing numbers will establish the fact that these mainline games will do numbers on a Nintendo system, so the platforms gonna be considered for all future games unless moneyhats are involved and/or hardware related shortcomings.

Looking forward to Drake unveiling, SMT/Atlus were among the earliest mayor announcements for the Switch 5 years ago. I dont think its gonna be much different this time.

But at what point can a moneyhat no longer be justified within business reason? In other words, just how much would you think Sony is paying Sega to keep P6 exclusivity, when the biggest sales potential for the game is on Switch 1/2?

It's just weird to keep the game OFF the platform where it'd sell the most. That's intentionally crippling the series' growth. It should take a ridiculous amount of money to justify doing that.

 

[Oregano]

The funny thing is in the past even big efforts like SMT V were downplay because Switch didnt recieve mainline Persona games. Now its getting mainline Persona games, that will be very successful and pretty much outsell most other 3rdParty JRPGs on the platform - but people are still complaining.

P5R and the other ports doing numbers will establish the fact that these mainline games will do numbers on a Nintendo system, so the platforms gonna be considered for all future games unless moneyhats are involved and/or hardware related shortcomings.

Looking forward to Drake unveiling, SMT/Atlus were among the earliest mayor announcements for the Switch 5 years ago. I dont think its gonna be much different this time.

You're ignoring the context. Like you would agree that Atlus is slow to move and that's why 1) it took until 2020 for them to release a Switch game and 2) it took until 2022 for Persona to show up on Switch.

So based on that and the knowledge that the development decisions for stuff like Soul Hackers 2, Persona 6 and Re Fantasy were made several years ago when do you expect the potential success of Persona 5 Royal to have any affect on their support towards Nintendo systems?

So then do we expect any other original Atlus title for the remainder of Switch's lifetime? Do we expect that Switch 2 will receive games day 1 despite not existing for the bulk of development of these titles and despite the fact Atlus was slow to support Switch?

If Switch 2 gets a Soul Hackers 2 port in 2025 but misses out on all the actual new stuff Atlus is putting out around time what does that actually mean for their support?

I feel like we're just dancing around the obvious point.

 

[enpleinjour]

But at what point can a moneyhat no longer be justified within business reason? In other words, just how much would you think Sony is paying Sega to keep P6 exclusivity, when the biggest sales potential for the game is on Switch 1/2?

It's just weird to keep the game OFF the platform where it'd sell the most. That's intentionally crippling the series' growth. It should take a ridiculous amount of money to justify doing that.

The biggest sales of Persona/fanbase is on Playstation, which is why its easier for Sony to get exclusivity. Not to mention the series has exploded while being Playstation exclusive.

Considering they are able to get timed exclusives like FF16, FF7R, KOTOR, Persona 6 is not going to be that expensive. All depends if Sony/SEGA deem its worth it.

Rumours are Persona 6 is PS5/4 exclusive.

 

[fiendcode]

You're ignoring the context. Like you would agree that Atlus is slow to move and that's why 1) it took until 2020 for them to release a Switch game and 2) it took until 2022 for Persona to show up on Switch.

So based on that and the knowledge that the development decisions for stuff like Soul Hackers 2, Persona 6 and Re Fantasy were made several years ago when do you expect the potential success of Persona 5 Royal to have any affect on their support towards Nintendo systems?

So then do we expect any other original Atlus title for the remainder of Switch's lifetime? Do we expect that Switch 2 will receive games day 1 despite not existing for the bulk of development of these titles and despite the fact Atlus was slow to support Switch?

If Switch 2 gets a Soul Hackers 2 port in 2025 but misses out on all the actual new stuff Atlus is putting out around time what does that actually mean for their support?

I feel like we're just dancing around the obvious point.

I'd expect the global success of SMTV a year ago to be more relevant to the future of Atlus' Nintendo platform selection. Also encouraging sales from previous external efforts like P5S, SMTIII HD and 13 Sentinels. P5R is really just additive, it more likely helps affirm plans already underway.

We'll probably see EO and maybe SMTV-2 on Switch yet for internal titles. Possibly the TMS team moves back to Nintendo too after the failure of SH2 and does something like Devil Survivor 3 but their trajectory's a mystery at this point. I'm not expecting P6 or likely Re:F on Switch but P3R seems like it'd have a decent shot, perhaps with the port being farmed out again.

For external stuff, it's probably all Switch bound for the foreseeable future (Persona spinoffs, PS2 remasters, Vanillaware, etc).

 

[Tokuiten]

The biggest sales of Persona/fanbase is on Playstation, which is why its easier for Sony to get exclusivity. Not to mention the series has exploded while being Playstation exclusive.

The most sales happen on PlayStation, because the game is released their first and exclusively.

Do you think Persona 6 would sell more on PlayStation 4/5 if a Switch 1/2-version also released the same day? Do you think Persona 5 Royal would have sold more on PlayStation than Switch had they released the same day?

 

[shoptroll]

Didn’t the DF analysis of Soul Hackers 2 uncover that there was significant performance issues with previous gen versions? Like I could easily see that title needing more time in the oven to optimize for Switch or they just decided to hold it another 12-18 months for a Definitive Edition on the next Nintendo hardware which would also have a less crowded market given its early in the system lifecycle (aka banking on a P4 Golden Vita moment).

Considering they are able to get timed exclusives like FF16, FF7R, KOTOR, Persona 6 is not going to be that expensive. All depends if Sony/SEGA deem its worth it.

Rumours are Persona 6 is PS5/4 exclusive.

Person had a huge glow-up with P4G and P5. Sega may not want to take an exclusivity agreement for peanuts unlike the Atlus of old which was probably resource constrained and could only focus on a small number of platforms.

Like @Tokuiten is saying… that agreement has to (or should unless Sega/Atlus are that dumb) offset the sales potential of having the game on more platforms. Especially Sony’s biggest competitor which has established itself as the destination for games in Persona’s genre.

 

[Person]

Very skeptical that P6’s biggest platform would be PlayStation if the game received a simultaneous multi-platform launch. And the rumors of its exclusivity seem to have their origins in very inconclusive posts on Era without much evidence.

Could still happen, but not something I’d bet on right now.

 

[Vergus]

First Persona mainline game on Switch, very likely to be another million seller from Atlus/Sega on Switch alone after SMT V which should be there atp as well.

I just want to say that it's amazing we just got our first million-selling mainline SMT title and will likely have a million-selling mainline Persona title on the SAME PLATFORM. Both of them are the fifth mainline title of their respective series and are released one year apart. It's unprecedented for the entire Megami Tensei franchise. Too early to celebrate, but it would be a nice milestone for the entire franchise.

Edit: Wait a sec. Soul Hackers 2 is technically the fifth game in the Devil Summoner series too. Too bad that it wouldn't sell a million even if it was released a Switch. If it was a good game, it really could've become a third-pillar.

 

[reksveks]

Waiting for everyone including myself to be confused when the next Altus game has a weird business strategy

 

[Phantom Thief]

Debuting at 16 on the most played chart on Xbox… eh

Seems like the other ports are doing well at least I guess

 

[Chris1964]

Atlus strategy on Switch isn't so big mystery, we'll see soon what will happen with Re Fantasy and Persona 6 and if Soul Hackers 2 was outlier.

 

[reksveks]

Debuting at 16 on the most played chart on Xbox… eh

Seems like the other ports are doing well at least I guess

10th in the UK (might have to check if I am looking at the cloud chart) but there is a bit of delay. Only 2 single player games ahead of it, Plague Tale 2 and Assassin Creed. I would like it to beat Assassin Creed but might be unlikely.

 

[mousielilone]

Debuting at 16 on the most played chart on Xbox… eh

Seems like the other ports are doing well at least I guess

That’s GP most popular and it’s already moved to 13th. This is from Benji



Most played won’t be updated until tomorrow I think. Could be Wednesday somewhere in there.

 

[enpleinjour]

The most sales happen on PlayStation, because the game is released their first and exclusively.

Do you think Persona 6 would sell more on PlayStation 4/5 if a Switch 1/2-version also released the same day? Do you think Persona 5 Royal would have sold more on PlayStation than Switch had they released the same day?

Well yeah, that's how platforms build fanbases. Persona has been exclusive or timed exclusive on Playstation for so long, no doubt the majority of Persona fans will buy it on Playstation even if it becomes multiplatform.

We already saw this with Persona Strikers.

Being timed exclusive, or even just having exclusive DLC/marketing campaigns can lead to a fanbase buying more on one platform, if it did not, then you wouldn't see Sony, MS, Nintendo spend so much money doing it.

Didn’t the DF analysis of Soul Hackers 2 uncover that there was significant performance issues with previous gen versions? Like I could easily see that title needing more time in the oven to optimize for Switch or they just decided to hold it another 12-18 months for a Definitive Edition on the next Nintendo hardware which would also have a less crowded market given its early in the system lifecycle (aka banking on a P4 Golden Vita moment).


Person had a huge glow-up with P4G and P5. Sega may not want to take an exclusivity agreement for peanuts unlike the Atlus of old which was probably resource constrained and could only focus on a small number of platforms.

Like @Tokuiten is saying… that agreement has to (or should unless Sega/Atlus are that dumb) offset the sales potential of having the game on more platforms. Especially Sony’s biggest competitor which has established itself as the destination for games in Persona’s genre.

I mean the fact that Sony can get far bigger titles like FF16 or Kotor exclusive/timed shows third parties do allow it and Sony finds it worthwhile to pay.

 

[Tokuiten]

Well yeah, that's how platforms build fanbases. Persona has been exclusive or timed exclusive on Playstation for so long, no doubt the majority of Persona fans will buy it on Playstation even if it becomes multiplatform.

We already saw this with Persona Strikers.

I'm not sure if you're being serious here. Persona Strikers was a de-facto story-sequel to the maingame-Persona 5, so obviously people who were able to play the first part of the story already would come from a PlayStation background. And even then, the Switch-version sold very well. Strikers' sales have no relevance for how a new Persona-game would sell.

But while we don't have numbers for this, I think it's extremely unlikely that a same-day Persona 6 would sell more on PS4/5 than on Switch 1/2. We have countless examples of multiplat-games selling better on Switch, even from franchises that used to be PlayStation-exclusive. And Persona got its modern popularity only starting with Persona 4 Golden, a portable version of Persona. Really, I'd bet A LOT on Persona 6 selling better on Switch if it released same day as the PlayStation-version.

 

[Person]

Well yeah, that's how platforms build fanbases. Persona has been exclusive or timed exclusive on Playstation for so long, no doubt the majority of Persona fans will buy it on Playstation even if it becomes multiplatform.

We already saw this with Persona Strikers.

Being timed exclusive, or even just having exclusive DLC/marketing campaigns can lead to a fanbase buying more on one platform, if it did not, then you wouldn't see Sony, MS, Nintendo spend so much money doing it.



I mean the fact that Sony can get far bigger titles like FF16 or Kotor exclusive/timed shows third parties do allow it and Sony finds it worthwhile to pay.

Your listed games are showing something you might not have noticed, which is that Sony’s big exclusivity deals all involve paying to exclude Xbox, and not the much more successful Switch.

Can Sony get exclusivity for Persona 6? Yes, absolutely. It’s not impossible, every game is potentially available for exclusivity. But just a few potential obstacles on the way.

Price of that exclusivity just went up a great deal with demonstrated market for the game on both Switch and PC. Marquee Persona title performance outside of PlayStation is no longer a potential but actually demonstrated.

It’s likely that it’s much more expensive to exclude Switch than exclude Xbox. And Sega has a strategic plan to grow the Persona IP.

This, again, doesn’t mean that exclusivity is out of the question, but it does mean rather than paying to make up for lost sales on Xbox, the weakest performing platform for JRPGs, you would pay for that, plus lost sales for Switch… and that wouldn’t be enough because Sega could realize those sales while growing the IP, so Sony would need to pay a premium that is worth enough to Sega to put its strategic goals on hold. Simply getting the difference in lost sales is not likely to be that attractive to Sega, this is not some risky and unknown IP they need Sony’s help to sell and market.

 

[fiendcode]

Strikers generally being just 1:2 on Switch : PS4 with all going against the former version so early on probably just casts more doubt than anything on PS automatically maintaining it's franchise lead if it ever did go truly multiplatform. If it did happen, like with most other AA series, they'd probably find themselves bumped down to 2nd or 3rd globally.

Fortunately for Sony, I sort of doubt they'll have to face that for P6 upfront.

 

[Zalman]

Very skeptical that P6’s biggest platform would be PlayStation if the game received a simultaneous multi-platform launch. And the rumors of its exclusivity seem to have their origins in very inconclusive posts on Era without much evidence.

Could still happen, but not something I’d bet on right now.

I agree with this. If Persona 6 does release on everything at the same time with no caveats, I strongly doubt PlayStation would be able to maintain its lead. I also expect P5R to do a million on Switch alone, which should be an eye-opener for Atlus. Whether they'll act on that remains to be seen, though.

 

[reksveks]

10th in the UK (might have to check if I am looking at the cloud chart) but there is a bit of delay. Only 2 single player games ahead of it, Plague Tale 2 and Assassin Creed. I would like it to beat Assassin Creed but might be unlikely.

Now #8 in the uk cloud charts, just behind Assassin Creed.

Shock horror #2 in the Japanese chart.