Sony Q4 FY2021 (Jan-Mar) Results - PS5: 2.0m (LTD: 19.3m), PS4: 116.9m (+0.1m) / 47.4m PS+ Subscribers / FY2022 forecast : 18m

[awng782]

This is wrong.

ZHugeX talks about unit sales. The graph shows revenue.

In FY3/2020, digital software revenue accounted for 84% of PlayStation's overall software revenue (excluding add-on content), whereas digital software unit sales accounted for 51% of PlayStation's overall software unit sales.

That discrepancy can really only be explained by Sony's digital software revenue accounting for the entire sale and not just the royalty.

 

[enpleinjour]

Yeah, that's the problem.
If unit sales are roughly 50-50 AND they're counting only SIE's royalties on both digital and retail as you suggest, that would mean, from the numbers we have, digital sales are somehow worth double or more what retail sales are every single quarter. How do you explain that, when the majority of retail sales are still at full price and PS Store also has regularly-scheduled sale pricing?

EDIT: Or do you think they're making $16 on a $60 game on PS Store and then consistently taking $8 or less for retail copies?

In FY3/2020, digital software revenue accounted for 84% of PlayStation's overall software revenue (excluding add-on content), whereas digital software unit sales accounted for 51% of PlayStation's overall software unit sales.

That discrepancy can really only be explained by Sony's digital software revenue accounting for the entire sale and not just the royalty.

Sony makes far more money on digital than physical because physical has the retailers cut, distribution fees, cost of goods etc. This is a well known reason why pubs prefer digital and why digital margins are so much higher.

 

[MegaXZero]

Sony makes far more money on digital than physical because physical has the retailers cut, distribution fees, cost of goods etc. This is a well known reason why pubs prefer digital and why digital margins are so much higher.

That is true, but it’s just settled that SIE includes the full digital sale and not the commission. I don’t get why it’s hard to accept when they spell it out themselves.

 

[enpleinjour]

That is true, but it’s just settled that SIE includes the full digital sale and not the commission. I don’t get why it’s hard to accept when they spell it out themselves.

Not at all. I've already mentioned prior that it is the norm to count the commission as revenue for digital platforms so claiming due to there not being an explicit mention is jumping the gun.
Its very easy to find out an error by 300% by looking at the data, which I will soon.

 

[MegaXZero]

Not at all. I've already mentioned prior that it is the norm to count the commission as revenue for digital platforms so claiming due to there not being an explicit mention is jumping the gun.
Its very easy to find out an error by 300% by looking at the data, which I will soon.

I get that it’s the wider norm. But in this case we’ve had several people confirm already this is how Sony (and Xbox) counts digital revenue. It’s not an error, it’s just a different method. It’s not wrong, they sell the games themselves on their storefront, it’s revenue.

 

[Terrell]

Sony makes far more money on digital than physical because physical has the retailers cut, distribution fees, cost of goods etc. This is a well known reason why pubs prefer digital and why digital margins are so much higher.

So you’re suggesting that Switch, which sold ¥359.6 billion (~$2.78 billion) in digital software in FY2022 per their latest financial results, is making only 65% of the amount of digital software revenue that SIE made in FY2020 when both are allegedly accounting for their revenue by royalties only.

This is an awful lot of effort to ignore the accepted wisdom from past analyses already performed on these figures and corroborating evidence both from insiders and direct from SIE about what’s going on.

 

[Kenka]

Sony does clarify, they count the entirety of the third party digital sale. From their supplementary info:

Thank you so much.

If I recall correctly, Matt over on Era has mentioned in the past that Xbox/Sony count the $60/$70 as revenue.

Found it

This alone explains why Sony's revenue is so high compared to Nintendo's and why their margins are smaller. That's quite enlightening. So yeah, comparisons between digital revenues are moot. Sony's will always be 3-5 times higher no matter what.

 

[Fiendslayer]

At some point, y'all should accept some people are here to be deliberately obtuse even when others slam reality in the faces....For reasons that have nothing to do with finding out the truth and everything to do with protecting their worldview.

 

[cw_sasuke]

We never received any kind of official launch shipment data for Horizon FW right ?
With the official PS5 bundles launching in Europe/US it would have been dope to have at least one number before the bundles.

 

[Megiddo]

They always make less on retail copies because the the wholesaler pays less than a digital consumer does.

EDIT: A bit redundant, my bad. I didn't notice there was another page of replies.

 

[acezam]

https://www.sony.com/en/SonyInfo/IR/library/presen/irday/pdf/2022/GNS_E.pdf

 

[ArkhamFantasy]

GOW2 would do insane numbers if it were on steam day and date, there's no reason not to do it unless you think the port would delay the game past holidays.

 

[Jorge]

https://www.sony.com/en/SonyInfo/IR/library/presen/irday/pdf/2022/GNS_E.pdf

Just with GOW, Uncharted and whatever bungie makes you arw not reaching those numbers...seems like theres a lot of games coming this fiscal year?

 

[MysticGon]

Just with GOW, Uncharted and whatever bungie makes you arw not reaching those numbers...seems like theres a lot of games coming this fiscal year?

Looks like a GaaS Turismo 7 hint to me.

 

[BoktaiFan]

Whats interesting is that even GoW, the most recent titles has an average sale price of only ~$27.

If that holds true for future games you'd either need a heavy Gaas title or you'd need to sell ~11 million units!

 

[Blue Monty]

https://www.sony.com/en/SonyInfo/IR/library/presen/irday/pdf/2022/GNS_E.pdf

Almost 2.4M for Horizon on PC is amazing for a late port, Days Gone numbers seem disappointing and GoW I expected at least to hit 1M but missing by 30k means nothing really.

Whats interesting is that even GoW, the most recent titles has an average sale price of only ~$27.

If that holds true for future games you'd either need a heavy Gaas title or you'd need to sell ~11 million units!

The revenue numbers take into account also the steam cut in sales, it’s only money Sony makes of the games not the money the games generate in total. It should be more around 38$ish per unit if it’s a 30% cut

 

[BoktaiFan]

Almost 2.4M for Horizon on PC is amazing for a late port, Days Gone numbers seems disappointing and GoW I expected at least to hit 1M but missing by 30k means nothing really.


The revenue numbers take into account also the steam cut in sales, it’s only money Sony makes of the games not the money the games generate in total. It should be more around 38$ish per unit if it’s a 30% cut bu

Ahh ok that makes a bit more sense, but still the revenue target assessment still remains.

 

[Blue Monty]

Ahh ok that makes a bit more sense, but still the revenue target assessment still remains.

I think if that includes Bungie is possible if they release multiple PC ports. Destiny 2 money, catalog sales and all the rumored PC ports should make it possible. It’s rumored all Sony first party output from 2016 onwards is coming to PC and if they start flooding the market they should make enough to cover the target but I don’t expect them to do it so quickly to hit 200m 22 FY.

GOW2 would do insane numbers if it were on steam day and date, there's no reason not to do it unless you think the port would delay the game past holidays.

I think Sony still wants to keep the image of some games being only playeable in PS at least at launch, this may change during the generation but at least right it seems that it’s something they still value quite a lot. We even see it in some 3rd party games like FFXVI even if that isn’t the norm anymore with most PS exclusives now being just console exclusives.

 

[Jorge]

Looks like a GaaS Turismo 7 hint to me.

It seems they arent even counting Destiny 2 in that and they expect 2 unnaounced games to do the lifting...but again, dont see gow, uncharted 4, TLOU factions and the other 1 will make them reach those numbers.

 

[sixsilum]

Interesting that they are not counting GT7 as GaaS.

Also Jim Ryan said that Destiny 2 is not counted on their slide about GaaS games that are planing to lauch witch means that 2 unannounced GaaS releases for this FY, alongside with GOW:R and probably TLOU remake.

 

[awng782]

PS5 vs PS4 sales in China 72 weeks after global launch:

 

[J-Cat]

PS5 vs PS4 sales in China launch-aligned:

This is interesting especially as we know that grey market for imported Japanese PS5s is huge, these sales figures don't even include those.

 

[Blue Monty]

PS5 vs PS4 sales in China launch-aligned:

It’s only launch-aligned for the global launch not for the chinese one, PS5 released 21 weeks after global launch while in PS4 case it took 70 weeks for it.

 

[awng782]

It’s only launch-aligned for the global launch not for the chinese one, PS5 released 21 weeks after global launch while in PS4 case it took 70 weeks for it.

Well damn, then the sales comparison is actually kinda useless then.

At least user spend per active console is way higher on PS5.

 

[Blue Monty]

Well damn, then the sales comparison is actually kinda useless then.

At least user spend per active console is way higher on PS5.

User spending per active user also only goes up when the time passes, chinese PS4 owners only had 2 weeks to spend money while PS5 owners had 51 weeks. I think this shows though how important Sony sees the chinese market they are sending there more units than traditional strong regions for them like Spain and tried to make the official release as close as possible to the global one. There is still growth it’s not just them releasing PS5 earlier, but the stats can make the growth seem be bigger than it really is without the context.

 

[MysticGon]

PS5 vs PS4 sales in China 72 weeks after global launch:

That's thread worthy yo.

 

[reksveks]

It’s only launch-aligned for the global launch not for the chinese one, PS5 released 21 weeks after global launch while in PS4 case it took 70 weeks for it.

Yeah that's a pretty big factor imo

 

[HK-47]

Almost 2.4M for Horizon on PC is amazing for a late port, Days Gone numbers seem disappointing and GoW I expected at least to hit 1M but missing by 30k means nothing really.


The revenue numbers take into account also the steam cut in sales, it’s only money Sony makes of the games not the money the games generate in total. It should be more around 38$ish per unit if it’s a 30% cut

It isn’t. Days Gone isnt the critical and commercial darling GoW or Horizon are.

 

[AruanaRiva]

GOW2 would do insane numbers if it were on steam day and date, there's no reason not to do it unless you think the port would delay the game past holidays.

I don't think SIE will ever do that though? They seems to still hold the idea of PS exclusives for maybe 1 year? And then PC launch to get those PC extra sales. That way PS will still the go to platform to get if u want to experience those high quality first party title day one

 

[enpleinjour]

PS5 vs PS4 sales in China 72 weeks after global launch:

China being so high up on PS5 relative to other countries is very surprising, even if in a supply constrained market, Sony is directly dictating how much goes where. I'm wondering of Sony expects Chins to maintain such a positon. If it did, that would result in 4-6M PS5's sold there, pretty big growth. It may even become the 5th biggest market.

 

[reksveks]

Next earning calls on the 29th July - https://www.sony.com/en/SonyInfo/IR/library/presen/er/

Also introducing a new class of shares that then converts into normal shares as far as I understand it - https://www.sony.com/en/SonyInfo/IR/news/20220630_E.pdf

Having a look at their assumed currency conversion rates from the FY22 reports;

USD:JPY = 123 (126 in April, 128 in May, 133 in June)
EUR:JPY = 135 (136 in April, 136 in May, 141 in June)

 

[Luminoth 4545]

Next earning calls on the 29th July - https://www.sony.com/en/SonyInfo/IR/library/presen/er/

Also introducing a new class of shares that then converts into normal shares as far as I understand it - https://www.sony.com/en/SonyInfo/IR/news/20220630_E.pdf

Having a look at their assumed currency conversion rates from the FY22 reports;

USD:JPY = 123 (126 in April, 128 in May, 133 in June)
EUR:JPY = 135 (136 in April, 136 in May, 141 in June)

I'm predicting 2.5 million PS5's shipped for the quarter. To meet their 18million FY target they would want a 3 to 3.5 million quarter but i don't think Sony shipped enough going off the sales data we do have.

 

[SoonyXboneUhh]

I'm predicting 2.5 million PS5's shipped for the quarter. To meet their 18million FY target they would want a 3 to 3.5 million quarter but i don't think Sony shipped enough going off the sales data we do have.

Their FY target comes down the the holiday quarter and Q4.
I know it's a bit premature, but i also don't expect the September quarter to be very good.
Sure 3 million is possible, maybe even 3.5m, but that's still 12 million units left.

 

[Luminoth 4545]

Their FY target comes down the the holiday quarter and Q4.
I know it's a bit premature, but i also don't expect the September quarter to be very good.
Sure 3 million is possible, maybe even 3.5m, but that's still 12 million units left.

I'm thinking around 3 to 3.5 million for the normal quarters and 8 to 9 million for the holiday quarter would be what is required.

 

[reksveks]

Anyone got a good idea of the typical PS5 regional split between USA, UK, Europe, Japan and ROW ?

Created a rough calculator to figure out the fx impact over the last 3 months.