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NPD Hardware Predictions for 2022 (entire year) - Closes Thursday, February 10 [Results In]

Welfare

Welfare

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Scholar Archivist Staff
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Thanks to donny2112 for hosting these for years and for the format I'll be stealing using! Also make sure to predict in the January 2022 thread HERE

This thread is for predictions of U.S. Hardware sales as reported by NPD (or estimations thereof where no public data is available) for the entire 2022 retail year (January-December 2022).

What is NPD?: NPD is one of the main retail tracking firms in the U.S., and also about the only one who specifically goes into detail on video games sales. This thread is to predict what the NPD hardware sales will be for the upcoming year.
What do I win?: Bragging rights, but SalesEra followers have fun seeing how well we can do with it. (^_^)

Prediction entries must be in and finalized by 8 p.m. EST on Thursday, February 10th. (Day before the January 2022 NPD release) Format use is absolutely required.

Do not use decimal points or "m"/"million" in your predictions. If you predict over 1 million for a system, you can use 1000K or more to get to your prediction. Be careful to use the appropriate number of place values so you don't over or understate your predictions by a factor of 10. People who have such outliers will be disqualified.

Format to use for predictions

[NSW]
[PS5]
[XBS]

Good
[XBS] 4500K
[XBS] 4500000
[XBS] 4,500,000

Bad
[XBS] 4.500.000
[XBS] 4.5 million
[XBS] 4.5m
[XBS] - 4.5 m
XBS - 4 million

2021 Results
Xevross said:
2021 approx totals:

NSW 7.67M
PS5 4.28M
XBS 3.74M
Click to expand...

2020 Results
Welfare said:
While we wait for the results to get #1 predictors for PS4 and XB1, we already have the 2020 sales for the consoles we will be predicting for this year

2020 YTD Rounded To Nearest 10K
NSW: 8980K
PS5: 1960K
XBS: 1490K
Click to expand...

2019 Results
Welfare said:
YTD 2019 Rounded to the nearest 10K

NSW: 6.5M
PS4: 3.87M
XB1: 3.05M
Click to expand...

Potentially significant sales-related events for 2022
(No guarantee these'll all happen in 2022. Also, this list is not meant to be comprehensive.)

Less impact from stay-at-home orders for Covid-19 pandemic
NSW - Price drop
PS5 - Availability; FFXVI, GT7
XSX - Availability; Starfield

2020 NPD Prediction Thread
2019 NPD Prediction Thread
2018 NPD Prediction Thread

NPD Prediction Thread Archive
 
Last edited:
[NSW] 6300K
[XBS] 5050K
[PS5] 4940K
 
Last edited:
[NSW] 7250k
[PS5] 4750k
[XBS] 4000k

If Switch 2 launches this year:

[NSW] 5000k
[NS2] 3000k

Reasoning:
I see Xbox going up slightly from the acquisition showing its first effects. But only slightly. PS5 also goes up only modestly, because the chip situation hopefully improves a little bit. Switch will continue to sell well, but has hit its saturation peak, so sales will be a little lower than in 2021. However, should Switch 2 launch at the end of the year, I expect a good 5 mio for Switch 1 from remaining popularity plus being the cheaper option, plus 3 mio. of Switch 2. Nintendo probably won't launch with less for November/December. It will be sought after product, but with its premum price at at least 399 dollars, 3 mio. for the end of the year will be a reasonable amount.
 
Let me try this for the first time:

[NSW] 7450K
[PS5] 5000K
[XBS] 5500K

I foresee Switch more or less repeating last year mainly due to resolution of the supply issues which prevented Q4 from being as high as it could offset by a natural decline at this stage of the lifecycle. Looking at the strong software slate this year as well, I expect a strong hold through most months and growth in Q4.

I am not too sure about PS5s ability to resolve their chip issues but I would expect some growth and Xbox surpassing them this year as things like Starfield and XBSS Supply should be better.
 
Sure, trying to get more involved in here.

[NSW] 7000K
[PS5] 4950K
[XBS] 4900K

I think production will still kick everyone in the butt and I don't see Nintendo releasing or even announcing new hardware this year.
 
Because of a combination of shortages and secular decline, I think we'll see continued YoY drops for the Switch, though it'll still easily be #1 again for the year. And also because of stock shortages, I doubt we'll see significant growth in combined PS5 & XBS sales, but they both could improve some, maybe 10-15% at most. In terms of market share split between them, Xbox may benefit from its major acquisitions, as while their full benefits haven't materialized yet, it may convince people to think long-term about what system they might buy. While I'm far from certain, I think the XBS could edge out the PS5 this year, stock allowing.

So, I think I'm gonna go with this:

[NSW] 6500k
[XBS] 4750k
[PS5] 4500k

Here's hoping for a repeat of me being #1 for the year, though I doubt I'll be that lucky.
 
Important update regarding PS5: Sony has revised down their FY forecast to 11.5M units, which would mean only 2M PS5's will be shipped this current quarter. This is down from last year's 3.3M.

How this shakes up the rest of the year is unclear but Sony is currently experiencing harsh production constraints.
 
[NSW] 8000k
[XBS] 5500K
[PS5] 4500k
 
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