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November 2021 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, December 7th [SUBMISSIONS CLOSED]
- Thread starter donny2112
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Only if they set a record. We didn't get PR last year because it was down from 2019.
UK result seems like a good sign. If they had enough stock for a record week in the UK, that would have still taken a backseat to maximizing US shipments.
so we had scarce supply for months just that console manufacturers could throw millions of consoles at once onto shelves.
if they really just held back for that, it's stupid.
if they really just held back for that, it's stupid.
I mean it makes sense. It sucks for those hunting during the previous months, but people buying outside the holiday season are far more likely to buy after the holiday season than most of the people buying as gifts
Q2 and Q3 are always the biggest manufacturing quarters too so they simply also have more consoles to ship.
Sony used to report production shipments (so units leaving factory) in the past
Here is peak PS1 production shipments (FY1998):
Q1: 4.5 million
Q2: 5.82 million
Q3: 7.56 million
Q4: 3.72 million
=21.6 million
Here for PS2 (FY2002)
Q1: 4.59 million
Q2: 8.29 million
Q3: 8.03 million
Q4: 1.61 million
=22.52 million
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thanks for the info, but i think it's difficult to make that a rule.
first of all, it's a hen-egg-problem. shipment goes up, because there's black friday and holiday season, not the other way round. consoles era no agricultural products with harvesting cycles, so there is no real reason to have low production in Q4 or Q1. demand/the calendar dictates production.
let's ignore that your examples are 20 years old. I absolutely believe that it has not changed a bit in the meantime, only become worse.
but, right now we have extremely high demand and low production because of wafer shortage, logistics crisis, whatever. so, for the last months, the last year even, they threw all they got onto the market and every thing was bought immediately (or did they?).
and that's why it does not make sense. why not selling early and catching as many people as possible right away? if I sell you a Playstation in september, you might not buy an xbox on black friday, but instead a new TV, a segway or 20 pounds of pork loin because you already have console. new consoles are so rare, that there was almost no good black friday special deal for them anyway.
you also not only keep a customer uncaught for months (and potentially lost to the competition), you also miss out on potential subscriptions, software etc. sales.
so, if they did not have any goods earlier, it's fine. but if they held back consoles on purpose, only to sacrifice them on the altar of shopping frenzy it's stupid.
@Xbro made a good point. Let's say that during the 3 first quarters of the year you have an untapped demand from mostly enthousiast players.
Q1-Q3 : Untapped demand
However in Q4, because of BF and Christmas, you have an opportunistic demand. It is the gifting season after all and you won't find that incremental level of demand in the other quarters.
Q4 : Untapped demand + Opportunistic demand
Just to make the example clearer, let's say that the untapped demand is 4m and the opportunistic demand is 2m but you can only ship 4m for the whole year.
If you ship 1m per quarter:
--> Total sales : 4m
--> Untapped demand : 4m - 3m - 0.5m = 0.5m
If you ship 50% during Q4 like companies are doing :
--> Total sales : 4m
--> Untapped demand : 4m - 2m - 1m = 1m
So you sell the same amount of units at the end of the year but you start the next one with a stronger untapped demand in this scenario.
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thats so unsatisfying omg, kinda wish theyd just go all out one november to complete the 12/12 lol
IIRC the Wii was similar. It took every home console (so practically but not technically the same comparison) month record during its life except for June. Never beat PS2 2002.
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Biggest November of all time is Wii, November 2008, 2.04 million.
Biggest December of all time is still Wii, December 2009, 3.81 million.
Nintendo was a sales monster that couldn't be stopped back then. Peak fad, lightning in a bottle without much direct competition, and supply was able to meet demand harmoniously. I wonder if we will ever reach those heights again.
I think it is impossible. Even last year when Nintendo managed to beat Wii's peak year WW with around 28m units sold, they only sold 1.4m and 2.0m in Nov/Dec.
The market is less concentrated around the US and there are many markets that grew significantly in 15 years.
A console would probably need to get close to 35m WW to reach this amount. That's less true for Xbox tho.
I actually feel that if Nintendo had had enough supply for Wii in 2008 those records would be even higher. In 2009 before the price cut Wii had already slowed down somewhat before holidays. In 2008 it was still constantly sold out even with huge non holiday months. I also think that November record is still beatable. PS4 got reasonably close in 2017 and that was with them supplying limited amount of PS4s for that $199 deal.
If and only if Nintendo can secure enough units in 2022 and have a price cut (deal or permanent), we could see them break 2M in November.
So many people have already bought the Switch though that as time goes on, less and less people will buy it. I feel like 2020 was the last reasonable chance until the next Nintendo console to have broken the Wii's November and December record. Switch Q1 2021 was insane because of unfulfilled demand from the holidays.
So many people have already bought the Switch though that as time goes on, less and less people will buy it. I feel like 2020 was the last reasonable chance until the next Nintendo console to have broken the Wii's November and December record. Switch Q1 2021 was insane because of unfulfilled demand from the holidays.
The November record seems so much more achievable. A year in which Thanksgiving/BF fall in week 3 and CM slips into Nov like 2018 would create the right conditions, then we just need a mid-cycle console with the right BF/CM price promotion. PS4 2017 last 3 weeks of Nov + first week of Dec must have been pretty close.
Eh I estimate that 4 weeks to have been ~1.7M still. December 2017 was pretty weak for PS4.
Only way I see the 2m record being broken is a game phenomenon like Fortnite, Minecraft or GTAV being exclusive to either PS5 or Xbox Series when they already had a price cut of $100 across all models. So $199 Series S, $299 PS5 digital and $399 Series X or PS5.
But normally games don't become cultural phenomenons without being on as many platforms as possible.
Or Switch 2 with 1 - 2 big exclusives, good price point and enough stock.
The US is still growing. 400m+ people by 2050.
So there is always a chance.
But normally games don't become cultural phenomenons without being on as many platforms as possible.
Or Switch 2 with 1 - 2 big exclusives, good price point and enough stock.
The US is still growing. 400m+ people by 2050.
So there is always a chance.
November is all about deals. There's no doubt that if the Switch had a true price cut to 199$ for BF and enough stock, it would have cleared 2m.
The PS4 went very high when Sony got aggressive with the 199$ PS4 and the 199$ PS4 + Spider-Mand bundle the following year.
The PS4 went very high when Sony got aggressive with the 199$ PS4 and the 199$ PS4 + Spider-Mand bundle the following year.
Just do $149.99 Lite and $249.99 With Mario kart 8D and boom
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