Being a mobile game pretty much kills any chance of hard content IMO, except if it's purely for competitive purposes. It's way harder to perform well, or even decently, when playing on my phone.
Mobile (Gacha) Market Tracking
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- #802
The fight for #1 on JP charts is funny to see now, Genshin has been displaced by NIKKE now. @MegaXZero so that banner seems to be starting strong there. #2 in KR too. Nothing notable in US/EU markets though.
MonoGO has snatched the crown from a lot of the previous big games.
MonoGO has snatched the crown from a lot of the previous big games.
I always believe that the more the game being more general/mainstream in style as well as target audience. If it has breakout. It can easily beat any more hardcore big success there. Simply by the sheer number of users to sell.
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티키타카 스튜디오가 개발하고 컴투스홀딩스(Com2uS Holdings)가 서비스하는 모바일 방치형 RPG 《소울 스트라이크!》는 1월 17일에 글로벌 출시되었습니다. 빠른 캐릭터 성장과 몰입감 높은 액션성을 가미하며 출시 후 시장에서 두각을 나타내고 있습니다.
《2024年美国市场亚太游戏品牌数字广告洞察》- 排名前十的游戏品牌广告投放提升23%超过7.5亿美元，YouTube和Meta系平台为热门渠道
本报告将深入解读2024年亚太游戏品牌在美国市场的数字广告趋势，热门投放产品和主要投放渠道。报告同时通过案例分析，探析Bandai Namco如何通过数字广告扩展IP海外影响力，实现海外市场战略目标。
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It’s a game that markets itself for the msot part with the fi our miis community and fanworks.
Star rail doesn’t have a fraction of that even if it bring in similar money.
Promoting star rail more often is a smart decision as it needs it much more.
Genshin at worst will slowly decline.
Though they’ve really been trying to push Honkai star rail when clearly it’s not catching on as Genshin did.
April Sensor Tower rankings
Pretty weak for NIKKE compared to last year. Guess this is the new normal.
Around July last year, it dropped notably and this is in line with new normal set from that. Generally, I would expect these kinds of gradual drops as it cools off. Still, grossing millions monthly will generally prove to last a long time.
Edit: In other news, according to Appmagic, Honkai: Star Rail has passed $1 billion during its first anniversary
Honkai: Star Rail zooms beyond $1 billion on its first anniversary
HoYoverse ’s second star Honkai: Star Rail reached its first anniversary on April 26th, 2024, with plenty of cause to celebrate . After all, the title proved that HoYoverse could capture lig...
www.pocketgamer.biz
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- #811
Thanks for posting the links, I am swamped at work so haven't had much time.
With the advertising report/leak, it's kinda wild how much MHY is spending on HSR relative to the returns, especially compared to Genshin. The return on invested $ is really low. They spent 400$ million to make a 1$B, huge numbers but one has to wonder how sustainable that sort of expenditure is long term and if HSR can sustain like Genshin has if it doesn't have millions propping it up, a question of organic vs inorganic growth.
I wonder if we'll see a similar "this must succeed at all costs" marketing blitz for ZZZ.
Around July last year, it dropped notably and this is in line with new normal set from that. Generally, I would expect these kinds of gradual drops as it cools off. Still, grossing millions monthly will generally prove to last a long time.
Edit: In other news, according to Appmagic, Honkai: Star Rail has passed $1 billion during its first anniversary
Honkai: Star Rail zooms beyond $1 billion on its first anniversary
HoYoverse ’s second star Honkai: Star Rail reached its first anniversary on April 26th, 2024, with plenty of cause to celebrate . After all, the title proved that HoYoverse could capture lig...
With the advertising report/leak, it's kinda wild how much MHY is spending on HSR relative to the returns, especially compared to Genshin. The return on invested $ is really low. They spent 400$ million to make a 1$B, huge numbers but one has to wonder how sustainable that sort of expenditure is long term and if HSR can sustain like Genshin has if it doesn't have millions propping it up, a question of organic vs inorganic growth.
I wonder if we'll see a similar "this must succeed at all costs" marketing blitz for ZZZ.
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Maybe in May it will grow a bit more, April only had the first 6 days of the 1.5 Anniversary Event, and the banner of April had a unit that wasn't meta at all (tho it is really popular betweent fan artists for obvious reasons).
The ratio seems similar to Monopoly Go!'s $1 billion marketing spend. I would suspect the marketing spend will go down as a lot of the advertising was for launch to attract users. I definitely seen more Honkai ads than Genshin recently but, I'd expect within the next few months, it will drop drastically. More than likely, it has dropped from launch period advertising.
Isn't that $1B just Mobile though? I imagine the actual revenue would probably be twice that. Still a lot of marketing spend for sure though.
Probably also doesn't contain stuff like the concert two days ago that had absurd production (projections, set changing all the time, lots of different performences in addition to live orchestra, band and singers, and so on) that surely wasn't cheap.
I have a hard time getting a read on ZZZ. I think its pre-release marketing is pretty similar to Star Rail with the web events and trailers and stuff, but it's also the first project of a "fledgling team" where none of the founders are involved, unlike Genshin and Honkai.
Probably the best combined month they've had since Star Rail released, but still less than Genshin did solo during its peak.
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- #816
No. Raiden's original run in 09/21 was over 250M$, and her rerun in 02/22 was over over 200M$ and around the current result of both HSR+GI. In 2021 to mid-2022 Genshin was doing 150-200M$ on its own month to month on mobile. A big part of that strength was Genshin's global market share which nowadays both Genshin and HSR have failed to recapture/maintain. Raiden's first run global result was 120M$, but the HSR+GI combo of today is 72M$.
Raiden's big release also wasn't nearly as propped up as HSR has been with a massive marketing blitz that has been innundating the airwaves with ads since the launch of 2.0 for HSR.
It is just mobile but HSR's not exactly had the best console release or presence. PC of course is probably quite large but we're still talking of hundreds of millions in marketing spend and as you said the marketing doesn't account for a lot of the other things they are also spending on to 'market' the game.
I have a feeling they will do the same with ZZZ and maybe actually even moreso now given the tepid response to it thus far and kind of nonexistent presence on the global market side. I'm actually surprised they didn't do much of anything for HI3rd 2.0 to market it, since that has now come and gone with a very real wet thud and hasn't seemingly done much to revitalize the game at all.
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Star rail feels like a bubble that will burst at some point.
Crazy marketing spending and players who pay way more than average in Genshin. When a dead path or bad banner comes it’s going to be rough for it.
It’s pretty clear they want to recapture Genshin but I doubt they will be able to do that again.
Crazy marketing spending and players who pay way more than average in Genshin. When a dead path or bad banner comes it’s going to be rough for it.
It’s pretty clear they want to recapture Genshin but I doubt they will be able to do that again.
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- #818
I'd not go so far as to say it's a bubble, but we will have to see if it has the same fast shrinkage once the marketing and anni hype cool off as it did on launch.
Wait $400m for just the US alone? Or is that WW.
doubt it's a bubble. They've been doing a good job so far at maintaining interest so far with new modes/SU updates + the main events actually being good and permanent. Only thing that could damage it is another Mihoyo turn based rpg or having too many characters.
as for dead patches, 1.1 was the closest to that (no main story continuation) and next patch is a close second because of the underwhelming banners and being stuck between Acheron and Firefly, with the latter looking to be even more hyped than the Raiden expi
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- #821
Worldwide.
Dang, it includes china cost as well and 1b includes china right? Sounds about right looking at sensor tower.
1b(rev) - 300k(commission fee) = 700k
700k - 400k(marketing cost) = 300k
With dev cost, they aren't profiting at all, but I would assume they're betting on long-term profit like Genshin.
These marketing costs are crazy, but looking at Monopoly Go, and recently games like AFK Journey, it does work. I remember when they marketed League of Legends like crazy back in the days, and it's so successful now. Although there are games like Raid Shadow Legends, not sure if they are making much in contrast to ad cost.
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C6
They are throwing everything they have into this game.
They cannot do that forever, they would lose 100’s of millions
They can pretend Genshin never exist and it will still take them billions over the years, the same is not true for star rail.
look at the marketing cost.
They are throwing everything they have into this game.
They cannot do that forever, they would lose 100’s of millions
They can pretend Genshin never exist and it will still take them billions over the years, the same is not true for star rail.
Again this does not include PS + PC revenue. The bilibili revenue person has a 0.6 - 0.9 multiplier for that in China and a 0.9-1.2 multiplier for the rest of the world, I think. So that 1.3 billion would be almost double in reality (and on PC they get 100% of outside of a 12% cut for some purchases going through Epic using Epic's payment option iirc).
They're spending a lot of money on marketing, but it doesn't strike me as unsustainable for now. Even with marketing, dev and other costs they probably still made a billion in pure profit.
Some mobile companies had their financial results
COLOPL announced their general plan including their game led by Kazuma Kaneko.
DeNA announced they will release 3 titles based on major IP over the next fiscal year. The first announced is Pokemon Trading Card Game Pocket
gamebiz.jp
Goddess of Victory: NIKKE has passed the $750 million milestone according to Appmagic data
www.pocketgamer.biz
COLOPL announced their general plan including their game led by Kazuma Kaneko.
DeNA announced they will release 3 titles based on major IP over the next fiscal year. The first announced is Pokemon Trading Card Game Pocket
DeNAの新作パイプライン、25年3月期中は『Pokémon Trading Card Game Pocket』など3本を予定 リスクを大幅に軽減する新しい開発手法も導入 | gamebiz
ディー・エヌ・エー(DeNA)<2432>は、この日(5月8日)開催した2024年3月期の決算説明会において、2025年3月期中に合計3本程度のグローバル向けの大型IPを使った新作をリリースすることを明らかにした。そのうち1本は、ポケモンとの合弁会社が開発している『Pokémon Trading Card Game Pocket』で2024年中にリリースする予定。 同社では、これとは別にリスク…
Goddess of Victory: NIKKE has passed the $750 million milestone according to Appmagic data
Goddess of Victory: Nikke reaches $750 million in 1.5 years
May 4th marked 1.5 years of Goddess of Victory: Nikke, the popular mobile shooter RPG from Shift Up . To celebrate this milestone, the dev has promised "free stuff inbound" like SSR characte...
www.pocketgamer.biz
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- #826
Some mobile companies had their financial results
COLOPL announced their general plan including their game led by Kazuma Kaneko.
DeNA announced they will release 3 titles based on major IP over the next fiscal year. The first announced is Pokemon Trading Card Game Pocket
DeNAの新作パイプライン、25年3月期中は『Pokémon Trading Card Game Pocket』など3本を予定 リスクを大幅に軽減する新しい開発手法も導入 | gamebiz
ディー・エヌ・エー(DeNA)<2432>は、この日(5月8日)開催した2024年3月期の決算説明会において、2025年3月期中に合計3本程度のグローバル向けの大型IPを使った新作をリリースすることを明らかにした。そのうち1本は、ポケモンとの合弁会社が開発している『Pokémon Trading Card Game Pocket』で2024年中にリリースする予定。 同社では、これとは別にリスク…
Goddess of Victory: NIKKE has passed the $750 million milestone according to Appmagic data
Goddess of Victory: Nikke reaches $750 million in 1.5 years
May 4th marked 1.5 years of Goddess of Victory: Nikke, the popular mobile shooter RPG from Shift Up . To celebrate this milestone, the dev has promised "free stuff inbound" like SSR characte...
Probably looking at 1B for NIKKE at 2 years. Not bad at all, especially for a game not released in China. They also don't spend like MonoGO or MHY, with a much narrower target market.
This is just from the mobile apps right? Pc client isnt tracked?Some mobile companies had their financial results
COLOPL announced their general plan including their game led by Kazuma Kaneko.
DeNA announced they will release 3 titles based on major IP over the next fiscal year. The first announced is Pokemon Trading Card Game Pocket
DeNAの新作パイプライン、25年3月期中は『Pokémon Trading Card Game Pocket』など3本を予定 リスクを大幅に軽減する新しい開発手法も導入 | gamebiz
ディー・エヌ・エー(DeNA)<2432>は、この日(5月8日)開催した2024年3月期の決算説明会において、2025年3月期中に合計3本程度のグローバル向けの大型IPを使った新作をリリースすることを明らかにした。そのうち1本は、ポケモンとの合弁会社が開発している『Pokémon Trading Card Game Pocket』で2024年中にリリースする予定。 同社では、これとは別にリスク…
Goddess of Victory: NIKKE has passed the $750 million milestone according to Appmagic data
Goddess of Victory: Nikke reaches $750 million in 1.5 years
May 4th marked 1.5 years of Goddess of Victory: Nikke, the popular mobile shooter RPG from Shift Up . To celebrate this milestone, the dev has promised "free stuff inbound" like SSR characte...
- Thread starter
- #828
Solo Leveling: ARISE (from Netmarble) seems to be doing quite well on downloads in NA, SK, and JP, hitting #1 in all of those markets for downloads on release. It has dropped to #2 in NA but still strong openning.
I know nothing of the IP, I believe it is an anime... from a webtoon manhwa. I believe the anime was rather successful as there's a second season on the way. So this seems to be a strong IP to work off of for a mobile tie-in game.
I know nothing of the IP, I believe it is an anime... from a webtoon manhwa. I believe the anime was rather successful as there's a second season on the way. So this seems to be a strong IP to work off of for a mobile tie-in game.
I read the manhwa, but it originated from a web novel first.
The MC gradually turns into the most OP person on Earth, making even his strongest colleagues (who are already superhuman) a bunch of fodder weaklings compared to him. There also aren't many female characters. Thus, I think the gacha will focus more on different versions of the same main characters, rather than adding completely new ones (think Sword Art Online gacha-style).
As an aside, for all the talk about the (justifiably so) bad blood between South Korea and Japan, in the case of this IP I never saw anything mentioned.
I don't see this game popping off, it's probably going to follow the typical IP/Anime-related mobile game cycle like the Jujutsu Kaisen and My Hero Academia game. I feel like "current-gen" anime isn't really suitable for mobile games (especially gacha) because they are shorter, resulting in less characters and content devs can utilize. It would get a huge launch because of the popularity of the IP, but usually won't last long.
Successful mobile games focused on a popular media franchises have 3 things in common.
1. Has a huge community/fan base
2. Has a long history
3. Has a wide range of characters, weapons, or anything of that sort
Examples include Dragon Ball, One Piece, Naruto, Marvel.
There were some that did decent like Seven Deadly Sins made by the same developer or Isekai Slime, but even those eventually fell off. Games based off of current-gen anime would be better off with a b2p game imo, like Demon Slayer. Or just stick with collaborations of already successful games like with Monster Strike, etc.
Neither of those particularly fell off. Seven Deadly Sins recently passed $1 billion in revenue and contributed a lot to Netmarble's revenue. Meanwhile the Slime Isekai game has been keeping pace in Japan with similarly big Bandai Namco games. Meanwhile, Naruto seems to barely have a presence outside China. Solo Leveling feels like it can do similar to Blue Lock/ Jujutsu Kaisen for a relatively short term high. Demon Slayer is supposed to have a F2P game but it got stuck in dev hell and now seems to completely miss the train.
Yeah but I would assume most of that 1 billion came from the first 2-3 years. I don't have data, but player count is most likely dropping as well. 1 billion in ~5 years. Accounting for commission fee, licensing fee, marketing cost and development cost, I don't see them profiting as much. Netmarble's financial report also proves that it's not enough, but I didn't look into it too deeply so correct me if I'm wrong. I just feel like investing in a b2p game is significantly less risky and efficient for established IPs. For live-service, original IP would be better because it's not restricted by an existing community.
At the same time, live-service games are hard to sell nowadays due to market saturation. So maybe it's not a terrible idea for short-term gains after all. Although there are benefits with an original IP such as less restriction, more potential, and able to spend more budget (without any licensing fees) towards the game. Established IPs definitely has a higher chance of success than starting with an original IP.
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- #833
Player tracker has been updated. I have been keeping it updated but been busy, however I'm going to shift to updating it on Sundays now rather than Wednesdays. I transitioned to Sun with the 56th week. Just easier for me this way due to work and life.
Graph here: https://www.installbaseforum.com/forums/threads/mobile-gacha-market-tracking.1544/#post-153742
Main notable thing that sticks out to me is that it looks like HSR has permanently peeled players off of Genshin. One is down, the other is up, but the total players MHY has hasn't really changed in sum. Will add Wuthering Waves to this list once it is out!
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BiliBili data.
Honkai 3rd 2.0 has been a total flop:
Genshin's revenue continues to see revenue drops, this year its been mostly in CN market where it's down a third:
Honkai Star Rail, our first YoY (though only a few days):
Arknights:
Love&Deepspace, still going strong:
FGO:
Blue Archive, game is very stable but it seems to have lost its upward momentum at the moment:
Uma Musume, on the topic of losing steam:
NIKKE:
Graph here: https://www.installbaseforum.com/forums/threads/mobile-gacha-market-tracking.1544/#post-153742
Main notable thing that sticks out to me is that it looks like HSR has permanently peeled players off of Genshin. One is down, the other is up, but the total players MHY has hasn't really changed in sum. Will add Wuthering Waves to this list once it is out!
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BiliBili data.
Honkai 3rd 2.0 has been a total flop:
Genshin's revenue continues to see revenue drops, this year its been mostly in CN market where it's down a third:
Honkai Star Rail, our first YoY (though only a few days):
Arknights:
Love&Deepspace, still going strong:
FGO:
Blue Archive, game is very stable but it seems to have lost its upward momentum at the moment:
Uma Musume, on the topic of losing steam:
NIKKE: