Media Create Prediction League : February 2022 [FINAL RESULTS !]

[Lelouch0612]

We just got the results for our first big software launches of February, let's see how we all did !

[NSW] Touken Ranbu (4 days)

This one threw a lot of people off because of the IP it is using (not well-known in the West) and the fact that it was the first iteration of this Musou subseries. As a result, the Median ended up 45% off and only 2 members predicted above the actual result.

Big congrats to @PillFencer who topped both the units and % error margin rankings with his excellent 111 000 prediction, only 2048 units away from the target which is a 1,8% margin of error. I was the only other member below 10% of error margin with my 121 000 prediction (6,9% off).

Horizon: Forbidden West (3 days)

The sequel of Guerilla's acclaimed Horizon launched this month and managed the put good numbers (even if down over HZD at retail). Its PS5 split was almost even with the PS4 one which is noticeable. The PS5 preorders trend on Comg! probably misled some members.

For this game, the crown is shared by three members ! Congrats to @Cocodor , @Rellik and @kamaitachi which were all extremely close with their 92000 forecast. Congrats to @PillFencer too (and again!) who had 1% of error margin !


More generally, on these software predictions, we collectively underpredicted how these games would during the month. Overall that's a good news for the market so let's hope this trend continues !

 

[Lelouch0612]

Elden Ring was the most anticipated release of February in Japan, we mostly all know that, but let's see how we all did faced to its great critical reception and buzz !

[PS4] Elden Ring (3 days)

Elden Ring managed to beat everyone's prediction for the PS4 version thanks to its 190k launch. Our consensus was around 50% off the mark.

Congrats to @Yeshua who topped both the units and % error margin rankings with his excellent 180 000 prediction, less than 10 000 units away from the target with a 4,5% margin of error. The only other member below 10% of error margin was @Fukuzatsu with 175 000 units predicted (7,2% off).

[PS5] Elden Ring (3 days)

Once again, most people were caught off guard by Elden Ring's launch. The game managed to instantly become the best-selling PS5 game and will eventually be the first to cross the 100k treshold.

For this SKU, a huge congrats to @ESCK Swiss ! He managed an exceptionnally close prediction, only 17 units away from the real number !! He was the only member with a sub-10% error margin too ! Although @PillFencer was close (10,1%).


More generally, on these software predictions, we collectively underpredicted how Elden Ring would do but that was way before knowing the game would be rated as one of the greatest of all times

 

[Lelouch0612]

After Elden Ring, let's finish off this month's prediction league results with Atelier and Pokémon

[PS4+NSW] Atelier Sophie 2 (4 days)

After Ryza blew up, the question was whether this success would translate to another subseries, the Sophie one which was already quite popular. However, as you can see, this didn't really translate 1:1.

Congrats to @kamaitachi who topped both the units and % error margin rankings with their excellent 42 000 prediction, less than 1 000 units away from the target with a 2,4% margin of error. Two other members were very close, @Will776 and @Aleh so congrats to you both !

[NSW] Pokémon Legends Arceus (4 weeks)

For Arceus, the big question was whether, after its record launch, this would translate well one month later and despite being out of the Holiday window. As Geo pointed out, this entry attracted a lot of people in their 20's and 30's but it failed to attract the same kids audience as past games, probably because of the release window.

For Arceus, a huge congrats to @Ryng™ ! He managed an exceptionnally close prediction, only 5108 units away from the real number !! He had a sub-1% error margin so huge congrats ! @ESCK Swiss, @kamaitachi & @Kano followed a bit farther.

More generally, on these software predictions, we collectively overpredicted how these games would fare, probably because of new elements that made 1:1 comparison with previous entries more difficult.

 

[Lelouch0612]

Okay now is the time to bring an answer to the question everyone's been asking. It is time to reveal the best predictors of February 2021 !

First, we had an impressive attendance this month with 48 predictions ! That's a bit below January.

Second, let's present how the IB consensus (its Median) did this month :

• Install Base Consensus error by units : 431 241 units
• Install Base Consensus error by % : 41,5%

So yeah, overall a very rough month with expectations being very much challenged !

Now, here are the rankings for the best predictors of February 2021 (ranked by %error):

Congrats to the winner @kamaitachi, I believe this is a first. @PillFencer continues his good run with his second place and just like @ESCK Swiss that completes the podium, congrats again !

They all predicted with around 20% of error margin which is a good feat given the month.

Overall thanks everyone for the participation, we had an good turnaround. For those looking for a higher ranking, don't be discouraged, it will eventually come

Congrats to the winners again and let's look forward to a very exciting year to predict !