Media Create Prediction League : December 2022 [FULL RESULTS!]

[Lelouch0612]

Mario + Rabbids Sparks of Hope

The Install Base consensus was way too high for Mario, around 24.000 units too high, despite the first game performing notably stronger out of the gate. However, as we come to know by now, the game has rebounded pretty nicely.

Congrats to @PillFencer with their 23.222 prediction, followed by @Ystad and @MarcoP90 at #2 and #3. They all were below 40% (yes, this is right) of error margin.

 

[Lelouch0612]

Dragon Quest Treasures

The Install Base consensus was way too low for Dragon Quest Treasures, around 40.000 units too low, despite being a DQ spin-off. It is true however, that the project always seems off given its development history.

Congrats to @Damage2 with their 148.000 prediction, followed by @Levitate and @Yeshua both at #2. They all were below 5% of error margin.

Crisis Core: Final Fantasy VII Reunion

The Install Base consensus was too low for Crisis Core too, around 35.000 units too low. The remake/remaster performed notably strong for a FF remaster project.

Congrats to @ktpoison with their 152.000 prediction, followed by @Welfare and @MarcoP90 at #2 and #3. They all were below 5% of error margin.

 

[Lelouch0612]

Pokémon Scarlet/Violet

The Install Base consensus was too low for Pokémon, that held well in December despite a record-breaking launch and softer hardware sales than expected in December. At the end of the day, it was around 140.000 units too low.

Hats off to @ikaben with their jaw dropping 1.380.000 prediction (only 55 units off the mark!!), followed by @BTB123 and @Rellik at #2 and #3. They all were below 1% of error margin so big congrats.

Nintendo Switch Hardware

It is pretty clear that we were collectively too optimistic about the Switch potential in December. The IB consensus is 210.000 units off, which represents an overestimation of 40.000 units per week. In the end, the biggest week of the year was not in December in 2022, it was during Splatoon 3 launch week (182.000 units).

The three closest were @Damage2, @kyo2004 and @Joxer, in that order.

 

[Lelouch0612]

Congrats to @PillFencer for being the top predictor of the month and to @Ystad and @MarcoP90 who round up the podium very nicely. You denied me the podium but no hard feelings from me. They were all below 25% error margin on average.

It was a difficult month to predict, with many peculiar performances. Overall the IB consensus was 50% off the mark on average and shows how much difficult to predict the Holiday period can be.