FTC leak: Xbox Series LTD is expected to reach between 56M and 59M by 2027. Refreshes to add 25M to 29M
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This leaked information just continues rolling.
Sony must be quite happy. They're able to look at the entire roadmap of their rival for free.
Just incredible.
Absolutely, in terms of how the industry moves, this is the biggest leak of all time. Just crazy times, and we're still so early, pertinent information is getting found each couple of minutes.
Sony must be quite happy. They're able to look at the entire roadmap of their rival for free.
Just incredible.
Absolutely, in terms of how the industry moves, this is the biggest leak of all time. Just crazy times, and we're still so early, pertinent information is getting found each couple of minutes.
I wonder if Sony and Nintendo have the business connections and the experience to sketch a fairly reliable view of Microsoft's plans regarding the Xbox consoles lifecycles, even without access to this kind of documents.
I assume they do (bruh), and that's why there are rumors of Nintendo willing to launch Drake before Q3 next year. They might have assumed (rightfully so. going by these leaks) that mid-gen refreshes from their competitors were coming.
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Hardware is known, it's kind of hard to hide such huge movement with manufacturers around the world. Same with software releases, studio employees and support contractors are not really quiet about what they're working on.
But seeing slides with releases and long term plans laid completely bare probably saves them some hassle in terms of opposition research when it comes to some finer details.
So their projection is about ~Xbox One. Not exactly blowing anybody's doors off.
But if I get this right, the slide is basically projecting that adding some potential doo dads to the controller vs not, will account for 3 million extra Series shipped? Not sure I buy that.
But if I get this right, the slide is basically projecting that adding some potential doo dads to the controller vs not, will account for 3 million extra Series shipped? Not sure I buy that.
if they will be around 30mil before refresh, it is an achievable goal
it is falling behing, but many actions still need to be put in place (starting from actual first party games, like Starfiled that just released and seems to be able to provide a push to hw too)
this would probably mean selling half than PS5 LT sales or less: not an extraordinary target, but probably if GamePass subs will follow increase they will see the generation as a worth one
I expect Series to have much better legs than One. It would be enough to comfortably outsell the One.
Curious to see why your bullish when Microsoft doesn't share your view according to the forecast.
They did have incomplete and second-hand information, however developers and component manufacturers cannot reveal any information about clients.
Much better value proposition compared to X1. Games will be coming throughout the gen (ABK will push this even further). Gamepass will also become better in turn. The consoles themselves are better (X1 was just a strictly worse PS4). I see 60m as the bare minimum and expect 70m+ by the end of the gen.
Microsoft projects $36B in gaming revenue by 2030:
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A lot of this was before ABK deal. ABK deal has changed their plans for sure, so post ABK these roadmaps are probably not relevant anymore even.
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probably revised from Covid delays and production and how they see the market and covid threw some games and other stuff out of wack
Games D1 on PC and Cloud need to be considered too
FTC claims they weren't responsible for this. so it would fall on MS and their lawyers
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Xbox sales cratered during Xbox One to a point where it erase Xbox presence in some countries.
well, that is their statement: we can't be sure that MS will actually sue them, if after an internal investigation this hasn't been actually caused by MS nor by their lawyers
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According to VGC, turns out this was on Microsoft. They accidentally submitted a bunch of unredacted documents which were then uploaded online.
https://www.videogameschronicle.com...y-responsible-for-this-weeks-giant-xbox-leak/
Wait so Microsoft expects sales in line with Xbox one? Lol. They are probably banking everything on the pc, mobile and cloud market, if they go below expectations in these areas, the consequences could be catastrophic for the Xbox division
After ABK I think cloud ambitions have been scaled back. Mobile will be a big (and vital) bet for them though, will be interesting to see how things progress there.
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Selling around Xbox One would mean reversing a downward trend, combined with their PC approach it seems pretty reasonable.
By the way, from what year are these slides? I wonder if theyre after MS realized Cloud wasnt worth it.
These plans already included activision. You don't plan to make 36 billion by 2030 unless you are going to make some major move. Because Xbox without Activision and in its current state cannot remotely expect to meet these goals, or achieve a significant growth in markets like mobile, cloud, or PC. It is clear that these projections are recent and include activision or if not Activision another big company. As for consoles, maybe microsoft simply does not believe that with Activision it can increase console sales much, and probably it is right, because it is very likely that cod in gamepass will not push console sales that much. In the end, Cod will remain multiplatform for a long time maybe forever, and it is the only Activision game that really makes a difference. It is clear IMO that microsoft is going all in on PC, mobile and cloud to achieve its goals.... From those markets the future of Microsoft's games division and/or the future of Xbox consoles will be decided. If they fail Microsoft might in the short-medium term get out of the games business or stay in the video game business and leave the console market to downsize the division, reduce costs and maximize revenue and profits by became a fully third-party publisher company and a cloud gaming only platform holder
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Thanks!
This is..bad. I wonder who has already been fired.
Is there a source for the claim about the inclusion of Activision? Because I have seen in this thread other people sure about the opposite and I would like to understand where is the truth
Btw: IF this was not including Activision I would say these were legitimate goals: stop a downward trend, stabilize their proprietary hardware baseline, increase the user engagement through Gamepass, set a solid base for cloud service and subscription model
Including Activision, these would be disappointing goal
Anyway I dont get why some people see these target as both disappointing and hard to get: these two seems to me uncoherent claims
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because people don't get the context and the full story so they just run with their preconceived notions
It would be weird to include Activision and then project a mobile revenue of $2.6B for 2030 when Activision already had a mobile revenue of $3.5B in 2022.
And don't worry, Xbox isn't going anywhere.
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So basically if I'm reading right ~40 million gamepass subs by 2023 without Activision is the rough goal.Microsoft projects $36B in gaming revenue by 2030:
After the merger I assume this will get bumped up, but to what would be the questions. Probably needs to be greater than 10 billion in sub revenue I'd think but probably even more.
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With what's going on the film industry and its streaming model has come under fire with it causing two different unions to strike at the same time, over the lack of transparency and questionable at best numbers. Its made me wonder if this whole subscription model is even viable in the long term for the film industry, a model that MS is clearly taking inspiration from. I honestly question if they can reach that 36 billion by 2030 even with Activision, because right now things are ugly in the film industry with strikes, shows/movies getting removed as tax writes off, rasising prices contantly, password sharing crackdown, streaming as whole just being a black hole for money. I don't think this kind of model fits at all with the infinite growth expected from billion/trillion dollar publicly traded companies.
Thing is there's no way the film/TV industry goes back from streaming. I mean, it just doesnt make sense, noone is going back to cable. i cut the cable cord 15 years ago. Noone is going to not watch most content via the internet tube. Most people transitioned to watching youtube almost exclusively over TV in the last decade alone. Is there going to be consolidation etc? Of course.
That doesnt mean games sub services is an automatic W though, IMO it's different.
Also if I'm not mistaken Netflix is pretty profitable, at least.
The fact people try to act like it's a bad thing having mountains of content and just about every movie ever made at their fingertips is wild to me LOL. Like so many things in modern day it's clearly just better but not really appreciated.
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That's why as it pains me to say (since I got a film production degree) things are very bleak in the film/television industry. The model by making all these expensive shows and movies for streaming only isn't sustainable, but its impossible for the industry to go back to the cable model. Hell the reason why the big 5 haven't given up on theaters, is because its the only way movies can make money these days now that dvd sales have fallen off a cliff.
Things are very bleak in the industry right now. As the current model is basically built on a house of cards and has a fair shot of tumbling down in the next few years.
My advice just enjoy it while lasts, because this shit aint sustainable with the infinite growth of capitalism.
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Yep. Companies would rely on DVD sales to make back any money lost in theaters, or get additional money if it was a success in theaters. And because of that they could take more risks, make more movies, make more shows. But with the collapse of DVD sales and the rise of streaming services, hardly anybody is making any money, and it has lead to a lot of stagnation and companies becoming very risk adverse, and why so many movies are multiverses, heroes, name brands, toys, proven IPs that are known to sell. Because following trends brings in some viewership and what bits of money you can get today. It also has the ramifications we see with show cancelations and show removals giving no time for a show to even find its audience and grow or become a hit. Things need to be an instant hit to survive now.
Would have never thought at the beginning of this gen that expectations would settle around trying to beat the xbox one. The pandemic really made everything seem so much more explosive than what it ended up being in the mid term.
I don’t have the highest expectations of microsoft when it comes to selling hardware but i would have thought the 360 would have been the goal
This is what I’ve been seeing in music and video services and i see it and feel it anecdotally with my friends and family. People are already exhausted by streaming and companies are paying more and more to secure content on their platforms. Seeing HBO lease shows out to Netflix is damning, and now they are all slowly introducing ad-tiers and cutting off password sharing, prices go up every couple of months, etc.
It seems like companies are spending more and more money and seeing less growth every year. This is why this writers strike exist now because they aren’t paying people. They are trying to cut corners everywhere
I honestly fear for this taking hold of gaming. Especially now that it looks like Microsoft and Sony are trying to phase out physical media just like movies and tv
I don’t have the highest expectations of microsoft when it comes to selling hardware but i would have thought the 360 would have been the goal
This is what I’ve been seeing in music and video services and i see it and feel it anecdotally with my friends and family. People are already exhausted by streaming and companies are paying more and more to secure content on their platforms. Seeing HBO lease shows out to Netflix is damning, and now they are all slowly introducing ad-tiers and cutting off password sharing, prices go up every couple of months, etc.
It seems like companies are spending more and more money and seeing less growth every year. This is why this writers strike exist now because they aren’t paying people. They are trying to cut corners everywhere
I honestly fear for this taking hold of gaming. Especially now that it looks like Microsoft and Sony are trying to phase out physical media just like movies and tv
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Looking at the scenario before the generation start my bet was Xbox Series beating One due to better first party lineup and affordable Series S option.
If in the end became just on par, I will consider disappointing, but I still believe it can be in the 65-70m range depending on the quality of upcoming first party games and CoD on gamepass.
If in the end became just on par, I will consider disappointing, but I still believe it can be in the 65-70m range depending on the quality of upcoming first party games and CoD on gamepass.
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I think that when it comes to streaming, the reason why so much money is being burned is a lot of them are just trying to race each other to the bottom. Some of these shows on amazon/netflix/etc do VERY good numbers and yet get cancelled after the first season.
I don't know if it's paying the big bucks to secure some film actors or just trying to one up each other in terms of overall scene quality budget but a lot of shows in the last few years have been cancelled simply because producers did not keep costs in check. A lot of them don't need the type of pristine presentation, there was just no path to viability no matter the quality and audience the show could garner unless it hit their highest expectations.
It's the same with movies, some of these budgets just befuddles the mind, even with COVID costs inflating the final number.
Some of these suits need to come down to Earth and use their money more wisely.
There's no reason a TV season with 6 episodes should be costing things like 200-250M.
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Hell Disney is planning on doing physical releases for their Marvel and Star Wars shows. With Loki getting a blu-ray release in a couple weeks, Wandavision and the first two seasons of Mandalorian getting one before the year is over and in 2024 both Andor and FATWS will get one. Because yeah, there is a not only lot of died hard Star Wars and Marvel fans that want a complete collection, but also its the only way these shows can make money without making them tax writes which would seriously damage both brands.
In one of those Phil's emails, he suggests the idea that Take-Two could create their own subscription service. Which creates a lot of implications for the future of the game's industry if we start see more and more subscription services. Like keep in mind both Ubisoft and EA have their own one. Hell, Nintendo just released a game that is locked behind their service. Its only a matter of time before some company makes a AAA game and locks behind these services without even a way to buy it digitally and if it flops, they could pull a Hollywood and make it a tax write off. Sounds insanely bleak and scary to me.
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I should add because of flat rates and having access to thousands of movies, it turns out, not a lot of money is rolling compared to how much you're spending on licenses and creating new shows and movies. And because infinite growth is impossible, subscriptions do stagnate, so you see price hikes and new additional tiers from free with ads to much higher tiers promising something extra.
Of course none of this is helped by how obfuscated many details are about streaming, like viewership, how well episodes are performing, etc. A show could be trending #1 worldwide on Netflix but still not be enough to make back its money, and nobody, even the showrunner, don't get any details as to why.
Of course none of this is helped by how obfuscated many details are about streaming, like viewership, how well episodes are performing, etc. A show could be trending #1 worldwide on Netflix but still not be enough to make back its money, and nobody, even the showrunner, don't get any details as to why.
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Wait what's this about a tax write off for a subscription only game?
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Just a prediction. Considering the state of the film/tv industry and how quite a few companies want to be the Netflix of games, despite unsustainable the model actually is. Its something I wouldn't be shocked happens eventually, considering its already happened a number of times on near every streaming service from Paramount+, Disney+, Netflix, and of course HBO Max who kicked off this awful trend of tax write offs.
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I think one thing to keep in mind that differentiates games subs from movies/TV is that there is potential to upsell. Look at any of the big AAA publishers or hell even Sony's revenue. Add on/MTX are the big money makers nowadays anyway. Huge games are already FTP.
Due to this I don't think game subs would be unsustainable at all. MS has already shown ways to do this with their own games. MTX for online games like Halo and upselling for DLC/early access for single player games like Starfield.
It's not easy and there is lots of competition but games have clear paths to extra revenue streams in addition to the sub itself.
Due to this I don't think game subs would be unsustainable at all. MS has already shown ways to do this with their own games. MTX for online games like Halo and upselling for DLC/early access for single player games like Starfield.
It's not easy and there is lots of competition but games have clear paths to extra revenue streams in addition to the sub itself.
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I remember a lot of people were talking about this regarding Netflix around 2012 to 2014. Because Netflix was still the go to place to see everything, eventually this would have to fracture off because companies were always going to see they can make money themselves through their own services, rather than having to deal with other parties. Why only get partial of the money when you can get all of the money?
Similarly, in games, look at Virtual Console-like programs and how companies split off from those programs to release their own collections.
We also know Square Enix has been toying with the idea of having their own subscription service too because of their understanding of Gamepass.
Article is from 2019. Whether they to do it or not is still up in the air.
Square Enix eyes its own subscription service
Square Enix is the latest AAA games studio that wants to launch its own subscription service.The Final Fantasy publishe…
www.gamesindustry.biz
EDIT: I also forget there is Project EGG as well. This subscription service has been around awhile though, and the people behind it are the sole distributers of MSX, PC-98 and PC-88 games. They have plans to release on Switch as well.
Project EGG retro games coming to Switch
D4 Enterprise has announced plans to release titles from its retro games distribution service Project EGG for Switch.
www.gematsu.com
It is mainly for old games, but already sub services already feel like they're piling up and are likely to continue.
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Gaming is proving to be different than movies and TV in terms of sub services so far. Hardware is still in the equation complicating things, and a sub service has been rolled into another with EA Access and gamepass.
Any non-platform holder publisher just doesnt have the content for a sub service that is anything other than moderately succesful. They dont have the output. At least going by what we see with Ubisoft+ and EA Access. I dont think we will see tons of sub services competiting the same way we see movies.
If anything you could say that sub services are already close to plateuing on consoles. Attatch rates for PS+/gamepass dont change that much YoY. PC is where gamepass is seeing its growth for a reason.
Any non-platform holder publisher just doesnt have the content for a sub service that is anything other than moderately succesful. They dont have the output. At least going by what we see with Ubisoft+ and EA Access. I dont think we will see tons of sub services competiting the same way we see movies.
If anything you could say that sub services are already close to plateuing on consoles. Attatch rates for PS+/gamepass dont change that much YoY. PC is where gamepass is seeing its growth for a reason.
Yeah there's a whole stack of reasons it's always been somewhat different. It also seems like they have more diverse monetization outlets.
The platform holders can and do run multiple (or multi-segmented) subscriptions. You're paying for online and you're also paying for a game buffet. People who don't want the buffet still often want to pay for online, and sometimes vice versa. Then you have premium game sales which have not completely gone away, not least because most games aren't on the buffets, and the platform holders accrue revenue from that. Then you have micro-transaction revenue for recurring monetization opportunities. Sometimes these are so attractive they don't even charge for them (F2P). And we're seeing more experiments with tiered release window DLC up-sells to play first, and these are sometimes moving millions of copies.
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EoY 2022 XBS: 20-21M
2022 shipment ~ 9-10M
At best MSFT expects XBS to be on par with XB1. Limited investment results in -5% of XB1
However 2023 is not going to plan. They are down 20% YTD and this or next year may be the peak.
So shipping 9.7M (on avg) for FY25, FY26, FY27 doesn't seem feasible at all.
A good reference would be XB1 drop off in US. 17,18,19 -> the drop off was ~ x, x, 0.7x = 2.7x (x is the peak)
So to achieve 29M, XBS would need a peak of 10.7M.
Current outlook seems to be a decline of 5-10% of XB1, however 23,24 sales will decide it.
I can tell you straight away this a big let down compared to what MSFT was forecasting at the beginning of the generation:
2022 shipment ~ 9-10M
At best MSFT expects XBS to be on par with XB1. Limited investment results in -5% of XB1
However 2023 is not going to plan. They are down 20% YTD and this or next year may be the peak.
So shipping 9.7M (on avg) for FY25, FY26, FY27 doesn't seem feasible at all.
A good reference would be XB1 drop off in US. 17,18,19 -> the drop off was ~ x, x, 0.7x = 2.7x (x is the peak)
So to achieve 29M, XBS would need a peak of 10.7M.
Current outlook seems to be a decline of 5-10% of XB1, however 23,24 sales will decide it.
I can tell you straight away this a big let down compared to what MSFT was forecasting at the beginning of the generation:
- getting sales near 12M for some/a year
- gaining marketshare
- their hardware CAGR of 8%