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Famitsu 2024 Hardware Sales: How Much will PS5/NSW Sell this Year?

Which will Sell More in 2024?

  • PS5 >>> NSW

    Votes: 6 4.8%

  • NSW >>> PS5

    Votes: 31 24.8%

  • PS5 > NSW

    Votes: 5 4.0%

  • NSW > PS5

    Votes: 77 61.6%

  • PS5 = NSW (essentially a tie aka only 100k difference)

    Votes: 6 4.8%
  • Total voters
    125
Tbone5189

Tbone5189

Member
Scholar
Though we dont have the full data yet, 2023 will end with PS5 selling over 2.6mil and n
NSW doing over 4.1mil (Being 53 week year).

Question is what will both systems sell this year? Will both have healthy drops? Sharp drops?
Nsw will be in its 8th calendar year with a possibility of the successor releasing and cutting off some of its incredible momentum for a system late in its life.

PS5 had a year which was Sony highest year in over a decade and reasons for it may be all over the place, this year will be interesting to see where it lands.

Where and what are your thoughts on how much each system will sell in 2024? Post them here!

Here some Info below for reference

PS5
2021: 0.97mil
2022: 1.15mil
2023: 2.60mil+ (estimate)

NSW
2017: 3.41mil
2018: 3.48mil
2019: 4.50mil
2020: 5.96mil
2021: 5.58mil
2022: 4.80mil
2023: 4.10mil (estimate)
 
All I know is Switch will sell more than PS5. I don’t know how large or small the gap will be though. That depends on what’s releasing for both throughout the year.
 
Tbone5189 said:
Though we dont have the full data yet, 2023 will end with PS5 selling over 2.6mil and n
NSW doing over 4.1mil (Being 53 week year).

Question is what will both systems sell this year? Will both have healthy drops? Sharp drops?
Nsw will be in its 8th calendar year with a possibility of the successor releasing and cutting off some of its incredible momentum for a system late in its life.

PS5 had a year which was Sony highest year in over a decade and reasons for it may be all over the place, this year will be interesting to see where it lands.

Where and what are your thoughts on how much each system will sell in 2024? Post them here!

Here some Info below for reference

PS5
2021: 0.97mil
2022: 1.15mil
2023: 2.60mil+ (estimate)

NSW
2017: 3.41mil
2018: 3.48mil
2019: 4.50mil
2020: 5.96mil
2021: 5.58mil
2022: 4.80mil
2023: 4.10mil (estimate)
Click to expand...
PS5 has had a 10% price increase and close to 30% price increase since launch. I think the PS5 will drop to 1m/year (similar to PS4) and he NSW will beat that.
 
So I think ps5 will drop by 50%+ so ,maybe around 1.2mil units 4th full year.

NSW will not collapse as much in terms of being this late in its life and I'll go with 2.2mil
 
I find predictions like this to be close to guess work so I’m not sure I can put any specific numbers out. The switch will have a steep drop, the timing of switch 2 could play a big role. I think it’ll cross 2 million but it’s hard to say by how much.

PS5 it’s hard to say, I’m confident it’ll drop and probably by a lot but that’s about where my thinking ends. I think sun 2 million is a safe bet and I’ll say sub 1.5 million. Hard to say with any confidence beyond that.
 
What do you consider the threshold between >>> and > in the poll?

Switch will easily outsell PS5. I don't think it'll sell 3 times more though.
 
Megiddo said:
What do you consider the threshold between >>> and > in the poll?

Switch will easily outsell PS5. I don't think it'll sell 3 times more though.
Click to expand...

> would be like around 500k difference while >>> feels more like closer to a million or more
 
I voted:
NSW > PS5


My actyual prediction could be something around

PS5: 1.85mil
Switch: 2.33mil
 
PS5 HW sales in Japan are a mystery to me but it wouldn't surprise me if the aging NSW would still come on top during its 8th year on the market.
 
Fluctuating yen and the upcoming Switch 2 are gonna be the wild cards of this prediction but I'm expecting YoY drops to be -50% for Switch and a -30% for PS5, so I voted 'NSW > PS5'.
 
Both will experience significant drops. I think PS5 will end up below 2M, at maybe 1.6-1.8M and Switch probably will be at around 2.5M or lower.
 
While a drop for the Switch is natural to expect, I think Nintendo has the margins for a number of options to increase buy-in this late into the game as well as the potential for very attractive software both mid-year and by the holidays, staving off the bleed in growth reasonably well. The PS5s increased pricing and continually meager software options with appeal to the regional market can cause the unit sales of that console to decrease despite the upward trend. I doubt tat the PS5 will start selling more or similarly to the Switch consistently regardless outside of external factors like exporting of hardware.
 
Switch sub 3M, PS5 sub 2M.

PS5 Pro is a bit of a wild card (is that still coming?) but I don't expect it to move the needle too much.
 
PS5 has good software for Q1, but I can't see much for the rest of the year so far.

I think 2.5 million for Switch, 1.9 million for PS5.
 
Baki said:
PS5 DE was 39,980 yen at launch. It’s now 60,000 yen. PS5 disc was 49,980 yen and is now 66,000 yen. It’s simply too expensive.
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. The cost for a PS5 is incredibly high & it’s gone up which has never happened before as far as I know. I have actually been asking a ton of smaller Japanese streamers on YT various questions related to PS in Japan & for what it’s worth every single one said it’s expensive. (Included) a screen shot of one of my discussions.
 
Neo_arcadia7 said:
. The cost for a PS5 is incredibly high & it’s gone up which has never happened before as far as I know. I have actually been asking a ton of smaller Japanese streamers on YT various questions related to PS in Japan & for what it’s worth every single one said it’s expensive. (Included) a screen shot of one of my discussions.
Click to expand...


Yeah. It’s not like salaries have increased by 30% in the same timeframe. It’s an unfortunate situation with the rapid devaluation of the yen against the USD. 30+% drop against the USD in 18 months. The Switch 2 is in an awkward place with regards to the potential Japanese price.
 
Baki said:
Yeah. It’s not like salaries have increased by 30% in the same timeframe. It’s an unfortunate situation with the rapid devaluation of the yen against the USD. 30+% drop against the USD in 18 months. The Switch 2 is in an awkward place with regards to the potential Japanese price.
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Seriously it’s an interesting issue. All things considered the PS5 selling at this pace with that cost in mind is actually not bad at all. SW is an entirely different story.
 
If switch 2 comes out this year, I think it’ll come out in august or September. I think switch will still sell a good chunk before then. I also think PS5 sales will decline fairly harshly (just a gut feeling).

My prediction:
PS5= 1.5m
Switch = 3m
 
Tbone5189 said:
That would be insane for both, 3mil for nsw would put it at over 35mil lifetime (shipped)

PS5 flat would be 100x more impressive then what it did this year
Click to expand...
Yeah. On second thought, 3M is way too generous. With the holidays being down over 40% YoY and much of 2023 being inflated by Zelda and the exchange rate thing, the Switch is probably going to be down a lot this year. So, maybe 2.4-2.5M for the Switch.

I still want to say the PS5 will be flat from 2023, so around 2.5M itself. FF7R Part 2 is coming soon, which should give it a decent if short-lived boost, and there's also the rumored PS5 Pro. Then again, the PS5 did have that anomalous bump in February, plus big bumps from FF16 and the Slim, only to turn around and have a rough holiday season of its own, with December not being anything remarkable compared to the rest of the year. So, it could be down a good bit itself, maybe only selling 2M. I guess we'll have to see what kind of baseline it gets to once we start getting sales data for the weeks past New Year's.

So, it could be very close, or the Switch still wins despite being down because both systems end up down. Hard to say at this point.
 
Neo_arcadia7 said:
Seriously it’s an interesting issue. All things considered the PS5 selling at this pace with that cost in mind is actually not bad at all. SW is an entirely different story.
Click to expand...
Shadow of the Void said:
Yeah. On second thought, 3M is way too generous. With the holidays being down over 40% YoY and much of 2023 being inflated by Zelda and the exchange rate thing, the Switch is probably going to be down a lot this year. So, maybe 2.4-2.5M for the Switch.

I still want to say the PS5 will be flat from 2023, so around 2.5M itself. FF7R Part 2 is coming soon, which should give it a decent if short-lived boost, and there's also the rumored PS5 Pro. Then again, the PS5 did have that anomalous bump in February, plus big bumps from FF16 and the Slim, only to turn around and have a rough holiday season of its own, with December not being anything remarkable compared to the rest of the year. So, it could be down a good bit itself, maybe only selling 2M. I guess we'll have to see what kind of baseline it gets to once we start getting sales data for the weeks past New Year's.

So, it could be very close, or the Switch still wins despite being down because both systems end up down. Hard to say at this point.
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PS5 is too expensive. Without a price drop, I think we see PS5 drop to sub 20k/week and 1M YTD for 2024.
 
Really depends on how much Nintendo supports switch in the second half of the year and timing of Switch 2. As well as how aggresive Nintendo is on pricing, new models and holiday deals

But I'll say ~2.3m. I think 3M is the ceiling and the floor is probably about 1.5m

For PS5 -1.7m

MH wilds being 2025 pretty much killed any chance of PS5 being flat or growing this year IMO. Probably the only game that would push real units at this point...and it very well could come to Switch 2 as well.
 
derby_440 said:
NSW - 2.2m
PS5 - 1.6m

PS5 need price drop in 2024!
Click to expand...
If there are no price drops for PS5, I think sales will be closer to 1.2M range and maybe even closer to 1M. If Sony drops the price by September, then I can see PS5 get closer to 2M this year.

Pikachupwnage said:
Really depends on how much Nintendo supports switch in the second half of the year and timing of Switch 2. As well as how aggresive Nintendo is on pricing, new models and holiday deals

But I'll say ~2.3m. I think 3M is the ceiling and the floor is probably about 1.5m

For PS5 -1.7m

MH wilds being 2025 pretty much killed any chance of PS5 being flat or growing this year IMO. Probably the only game that would push real units at this point...and it very well could come to Switch 2 as well.
Click to expand...

Q1 has some good games for the JP market: Granblue, Persona 3, Tekken 8, FF7: Rebirth, DD2 and Rise of the Ronin. In addition to big tentpoles like MH, PS5 needs frequent titles that are also well-known franchises. If they can continue Q1 cadence through 2024, that would be good for their sales prospects.
 
I honestly expect them to fall pretty close to eachother. Maybe not 100K but I don't think it'll be more than 300K either.

PS5: 2.2m
Switch: 2.0m

Or the reverse

Switch: 2.2m
PS5: 2.0m

Ultimately though I see Switch 2's release, if it is in fact this year, will eat into both.

I do think that Switch 2 early adoption will happen rather fast with the non-oled being the first to be phased out starting from the announcement. If Switch 2 is indeed a Fall release as opposed to their earlier releases than I think we'll see a pretty big dip for the holiday season even if most of the software is cross-gen. As for the PS5. While it does have a good Japanese-oriented lineup for the first half of the year, I don't really think any of those games I'd classify as system sellers besides maybe 7 Rebirth. The real system seller will of course be Monster Hunter in 2025.
 
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I think Switch will comfortably beat PS5 because I expect PS5 will do poorly in 2024 now that imports are less attractive.

derby_440 said:
NSW - 2.2m
PS5 - 1.6m

PS5 need price drop in 2024!
Click to expand...

If they drop the price WW ok, otherwise japanese consoles will start to flood other markets again.

PS5 remains being cheaper than in US, japanese consumers will need to adapt to a weaker yen.
 
allan-bh said:
I think Switch will comfortably beat PS5 because I expect PS5 will do poorly in 2024 now that imports are less attractive.



If they drop the price WW ok, otherwise japanese consoles will start to flood other markets again.

PS5 remains being cheaper than in US, japanese consumers will need to adapt to a weaker yen.
Click to expand...
What are the margins on mass exporting of PS5s? Are the margins enough to sustain exporting at essentially an industrialised scale? The yen, up until recently, was not weak enough to sustain such a large volume of exports and for folks to make sufficient margin to make that business attractive. Was / is there exporting? Sure? But exporting at a scale of 10-20K units a week. I doubt that. Happy to hear your thoughts on the margins and how everyone gets paid out to make it worthwhile.
 
Baki said:
What are the margins on mass exporting of PS5s? Are the margins enough to sustain exporting at essentially an industrialised scale? The yen, up until recently, was not weak enough to sustain such a large volume of exports and for folks to make sufficient margin to make that business attractive. Was / is there exporting? Sure? But exporting at a scale of 10-20K units a week. I doubt that. Happy to hear your thoughts on the margins and how everyone gets paid out to make it worthwhile.
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Wasn't it very profitable up until shortages ended? Profits scalpers were getting up until then were huge, right? Even the Switch was being exported in large numbers in 2023 as has been talked about in MC threads. Besides the best evidence for large amounts of exporting/scalping is the lack of domestic sw sales and always has been in my view. The recent leaks pretty much kill the idea of free games from ps plus being a driving factor of a disastrous ps5 attach rate, and those same leaks showed digital ratios being surprisingly tame.
 
Tbone5189 said:
So I think ps5 will drop by 50%+ so ,maybe around 1.2mil units 4th full year.

NSW will not collapse as much in terms of being this late in its life and I'll go with 2.2mil
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At first I thought that both would hold a bit better than that (~1.5M for PS5 and ~2.5M for Switch) so I picked option #2 in the poll. That said, it seems that both platforms were a bit inflated this year due to exports, so a larger drop might make sense now that the situation has mostly corrected itself. Or has it? Now that holiday promotions are over, and since the yen value is so far still very low, could Switch enjoy yet another year of augmented baseline due to exports?

Of course the uncertainty around the Switch successor makes this prediction quite hard. If it were not to arrive until 2025, I could see Switch doing closer to 3M. If, on the other hand, the successor were to release in the Summer, then Switch would have a hard time doing far above 2M.
 
I think the PS5 may outsell the Switch this year in Japan, but it will of course come down to if/when the Switch successor is announced.

I say PS5 @ 1.4M > NSW @ 1.3M
 
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