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UPDATE 7: Monster Hunter Rise: Sunbreak Surpasses 6 Million Units Globally, MHR at 13M [NEW]

2m with PC included indicates slow start.
Slower than Inceborne perhaps but nearly a quarter of the base jumping into a premium expansion isn't anything to sneeze at. Retention is one thing I remember Capcom has mentioned in the past but the days of trains being filled with people playing the lastest MonHun are over. Far too much competition these days with purpose built persistent online GAAS like Destiny.
 
Heh.

Capcom will think hard and fast about which MH line it wants to prioritize, if it's resources are indeed limited going forward.

Still have to see where this ends up in the end. It is no surprise the 10 million game sells less expansion than the 13 million game.
I think you are right, didn’t consider it
 
I wonder if Capcom will plan their expansions closer to release date in the future I’d imagine that there is already a part of Rise Switch userbase that has no interest on going back to the game after almost one year and a half of release date. We know Nintendo is trying to release DLC for their games closer to release nowadays for that reason so I’d think that if Capcom can afford it they will do the same plus day 1 PC releases
 
I wonder if Capcom will plan their expansions closer to release date in the future I’d imagine that there is already a part of Rise Switch userbase that has no interest on going back to the game after almost one year and a half of release date. We know Nintendo is trying to release DLC for their games closer to release nowadays for that reason so I’d think that if Capcom can afford it they will do the same plus day 1 PC releases

I think their strategy is to treat expansions as new game launches. So a pattern that looks like Y1=New Game, Y2=Expansion... Maybe they release a new game in next year or do nothing so they can gobble up some legacy sales and give the other dev team more time putting new games on a 3 year cycle.
 
massive premium expansion... haha

Sunbreak might have a softer start than Iceborne but it's still a great start regardless
 
it is stunning how MH can be so succesfull in both its "pipeline": It's pretty obvious/evident how the Switch+pc / PS5+Xbox+PC lines are here to stay
I'm still questioning if it will. the higher games go, the more they can reduce to get running on lower end hardware. to the point where I figure MH6 could hit Drake at the same time if they desired it
 
Seems like a soft start on Switch. We'll see how the legs transpire though.

2m overall is still a good number.
 
Do people saying this is low also think that Iceborne sales were low? Cause 2/10 > 2.5/13
I wonder if Capcom will plan their expansions closer to release date in the future I’d imagine that there is already a part of Rise Switch userbase that has no interest on going back to the game after almost one year and a half of release date. We know Nintendo is trying to release DLC for their games closer to release nowadays for that reason so I’d think that if Capcom can afford it they will do the same plus day 1 PC releases
Very unlikely, Sunbreak is almost as big as base Rise as a whole. Putting them closer would only serve to delay the base game further, which would impact their financials. Having base games and expansions on separate FYs is a feature, not a bug. As MysticGon said, Capcom treats MH expansions as new releases because historically that's what they were.
 
If we go by percentage, the Rise/Sunbreak has a higher attach rate than World/Iceborne.
 
Do people saying this is low also think that Iceborne sales were low? Cause 2/10 > 2.5/13

Sales are not low but that 2.5/13 is not a correct comparison.

2.5/(13 - All MHW PC sales)

Iceborne didn't launch day and date on pc. You have to remove 2M/maybe 3M from that 13.
 
Given the leaks, on November 2020

For MHW
~8.4 million on PS (2 years and 10 months)
~6 million on PC (2 yr 3 months)
~1.8 million on Xbox (2yr 10mn)

And what we know of World as of now
-8 million on Switch (10 mn is at this number, we are now in the 1yr 3 mn mark so it's 8.X-9.X)
-Max 2 million sales on PC, likely significantly less (6mn).

In terms of rate of sales I believe NSWMHR is actually ahead of any single platform version of MH right now, so I am wondering what is a realistic number for PC MHR. This is because we know MHR PC intial performance was not high, so the acceleration from 8 to 10 million for MHR is of unclear allocation between NSW and PC.

Regardless, it does look like merely (2-X) million of SB for 8.X to 9.X copies of MHR NSW, so it looks like an pretty serious underperformance, assuming legs do not show up. You wonder what does Capcom think of this right now.
 
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Given the leaks, on November 2020

For MHW
~8.4 million on PS (2 years and 10 months)
~6 million on PC (2 yr 3 months)
~1.8 million on Xbox (2yr 10mn)

And what we know of World as of now
-8 million on Switch (10 mn is at this number, we are now in the 1yr 3 mn mark so it's 8.X-9.X)
-Max 2 million sales on PC, likely less (6mn).

In terms of rate of sales I believe NSWMHR is actually ahead of any single platform version of MH right now, so I am wondering what is a realistic number for PC MHR. This is because we know MHR PC intial performance was not high, so the acceleration from 8 to 10 million for MHR is of unclear allocation between NSW and PC.

Regardless, it does look like merely (2-X) million of SB for 8.X to 9.X copies of MHR NSW, so it looks like an pretty serious underperformance, assuming legs do not show up. You wonder what does Capcom think of this right now.

Capcom is thinking they just sold over 2 million copies in a few days of their expansion and it will have little trouble doubling if not more that number.

It is soft but it isn't like MH hasn't traditionally had great legs. We're so far from worry territory. I don't know why you're pushing this gloom position so much.
 
I was expecting a bigger opening too, considering it launchs days one on pc i was expecting even bigger opening than iceborne (or equal at least), IB on xbox didn´t even reach half million when sales leaked at the end of 2020, launch numbers were probably negligible and i expected SB on pc to crush them, fact that seeing the user numbers on steam must have happened, so for the moment it does look like SB on switch launched quite lower than i expected
 
Given the leaks, on November 2020

For MHW
~8.4 million on PS (2 years and 10 months)
~6 million on PC (2 yr 3 months)
~1.8 million on Xbox (2yr 10mn)

And what we know of World as of now
-8 million on Switch (10 mn is at this number, we are now in the 1yr 3 mn mark so it's 8.X-9.X)
-Max 2 million sales on PC, likely less (6mn).

In terms of rate of sales I believe NSWMHR is actually ahead of any single platform version of MH right now, so I am wondering what is a realistic number for PC MHR. This is because we know MHR PC intial performance was not high, so the acceleration from 8 to 10 million for MHR is of unclear allocation between NSW and PC.

Regardless, it does look like merely (2-X) million of SB for 8.X to 9.X copies of MHR NSW, so it looks like an pretty serious underperformance, assuming legs do not show up. You wonder what does Capcom think of this right now.
If Capcom wasn't happy about the sales, they wouldn't be releasing PR about it.
 
I was expecting a bigger opening too, considering it launchs days one on pc i was expecting even bigger opening than iceborne (or equal at least), IB on xbox didn´t even reach half million when sales leaked at the end of 2020, launch numbers were probably negligible and i expected SB on pc to crush them, fact that seeing the user numbers on steam must have happened, so for the moment it does look like SB on switch launched quite lower than i expected
I’d doubt that PC sunbreak sales crushed Xbox’s iceborne’s. Maybe bigger but consider that most likely Xbox had a bigger install base for MH at the expansion launch.

Based on the PR they are including the Rise sunbreak set in the 10 million while master edition wasn’t including in PR for world until quite recently, nor was it included in the leaked numbers for base world.
 
I think there's a few reasons for Sunbreak's launch being as soft as it has:

1. Lack of content in Rise: Rise didn't engage people for as long as Monster Hunter World did. MHW was designed as a "lite" GaaS title, with daily login bonuses, procedurally-generated quests, and constant little updates to keep people coming back for post-game stuff. The game also did a better job of curating its content, and making every new monster feel like an event. In contrast, Rise was released with a bunch of its end-game content missing, provided very little in the form of a post-game grind, and took a rather stripped-down, oldschool approach to how it presented all of its content. As a result, engagement dropped off quicker, and it's always more difficult to get people to come back to a game they've stopped playing for good.​
2. A lack of impressive new features in Sunbreak: Capcom has always called Sunbreak a "massive expansion," which is the same term they used for Iceborne. However, in contrast to Iceborne, Sunbreak doesn't actually feel like a massive expansion. There are a bunch of returning monsters and a handful of new ones, but two core issues still remain: A) The lack of a proper post-game grind, and B) The lack of anything that really makes you go, "Wow, that's a super cool new thing." For better or worse, Sunbreak is just more Rise and with less content than IB.​

Point no. 2 also ties into marketing, which is where its effects were most felt. I don't think Sunbreak has been marketed particularly well. Save for that final trailer during the Mini Direct, the other showings have felt rather underwhelming, and they definitely tempered people's expectations for Sunbreak. In contrast to SB, Iceborne had multiple showings, a couple of lengthy streams, and a lot more excitement around its launch.

TL;DR: I think people were willing to forgive MH Rise as a relatively content-light experience (or were simply being exposed to it for the first time as new fans), but I don't think they were willing to do the same thing a second time around with Sunbreak. I love the game dearly, but I do personally feel Capcom dropped the ball on Sunbreak rather hard.
 
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I think there's a few reasons for Sunbreak's launch being as soft as it has:

1. Lack of content in Rise: Rise didn't engage people for as long as Monster Hunter World did. MHW was designed as a "lite" GaaS title, with daily login bonuses, procedurally-generated quests, and constant little updates to keep people coming back for post-game stuff. The game also did a better job of curating its content, and making every new monster feel like an event. In contrast, Rise was released with a bunch of its end-game content missing, provided very little in the form of a post-game grind, and took a rather stripped-down, oldschool approach to how it presented all of its content. As a result, engagement dropped off quicker, and it's always more difficult to get people to come back to a game they've stopped playing for good.​
2. A lack of impressive new features in Sunbreak: Capcom has always called Sunbreak a "massive expansion," which is the same term they used for Iceborne. However, in contrast to Iceborne, Sunbreak doesn't actually feel like a massive expansion. There are a bunch of returning monsters and a handful of new ones, but two core issues still remain: A) The lack of a proper post-game grind, and B) The lack of anything that really makes you go, "Wow, that's a super cool new thing." For better or worse, Sunbreak is just more Rise and with less content than IB.​

Point no. 2 also ties into marketing, which is where its effects were most felt. I don't think Sunbreak has been marketed particularly well. Save for that final trailer during the Mini Direct, the other showings have felt rather underwhelming, and they definitely tempered people's expectations for Sunbreak. In contrast to SB, Iceborne had multiple showings, a couple of lengthy streams, and a lot more excitement around its launch.

TL;DR: I think people were willing to forgive MH Rise as a relatively content-light experience (or were simply being exposed to it for the first time as new fans), but I don't think they were willing to do the same thing a second time around with Sunbreak. I love the game dearly, but I do personally feel Capcom dropped the ball on Sunbreak rather hard.


Isn't Sunbreak pretty similar to vanilla Iceborne, content-wise?
Btw

if there are 2 days less, on a 7-day tracked period
if the Master edition is counted for Iceborne and not for Sunbreak
if the convertion rate (from base game --> into expansion) is higher for Rise-to-Sunbreak than World-to-Iceborne

I'd say that we are looking at pretty similar numbers, both simply great

(if those assumptions are not correct, my bad)
 
I’d doubt that PC sunbreak sales crushed Xbox’s iceborne’s. Maybe bigger but consider that most likely Xbox had a bigger install base for MH at the expansion launch.

Based on the PR they are including the Rise sunbreak set in the 10 million while master edition wasn’t including in PR for world until quite recently, nor was it included in the leaked numbers for base world.
IB on xbox sold <0,5m in a year or so, we don´t know launch numbers of course but given that we have to let some room for "legs" maybe it was 0,2 or 0,3m with luck. With the CCU numbers in steam it seems completely logical to think that SB launch on pc is much bigger IB launch on xbox and even bigger than the <0,5m from the leak.

And I see quite a few users assuming that the master edition of SB does not count in these numbers, and capcom only count it rise´s numbers, which would be a change of criteria to capcom, although it is not specified that SB numbers include this edition it also does not specify that it is not included (and the box look like the master edition for IB, it literally says that it also includes the base game). I think the simplest explanation is that capcom maintains criteria and is simply announcing that rise has reached 10 million milestone including the master edition
 
Isn't Sunbreak pretty similar to vanilla Iceborne, content-wise?

Iceborne is much better curated and paced, had Investigations to keep people playing, and rewarded players with the Guiding Lands near the end. And yeah, people complain about the Guiding Lands (and a lot of those complaints were addressed in subsequent patches), but it was a very cool feature that they kept hidden for their most committed players. SB in contrast feels rather barebones, even in terms of the number of monsters it adds, let alone other major features.
 
IB on xbox sold <0,5m in a year or so, we don´t know launch numbers of course but given that we have to let some room for "legs" maybe it was 0,2 or 0,3m with luck. With the CCU numbers in steam it seems completely logical to think that SB launch on pc is much bigger IB launch on xbox and even bigger than the <0,5m from the leak.
Using CCU is not a great criteria when it's the base game being used. Sunbreak did lose to steamdeck it's opening week. But I don't disagree it probably beat it launch wise.
And I see quite a few users assuming that the master edition of SB does not count in these numbers, and capcom only count it rise´s numbers, which would be a change of criteria to capcom, although it is not specified that SB numbers include this edition it also does not specify that it is not included (and the box look like the master edition for IB, it literally says that it also includes the base game). I think the simplest explanation is that capcom maintains criteria and is simply announcing that rise has reached 10 million milestone including the master edition
Actually including the bundled set is a change for Capcom. World's IR numbers are without master edition, as well as the leaked numbers. Only recently have they included an asterisk in some PR to include the master edition. But based on what is said in the PR, the bundled set for Rise is included in the 10 million. Which is disappointing since it means Capcom continues it's history of confusing sales reporting.
 
Iceborne is much better curated and paced, had Investigations to keep people playing, and rewarded players with the Guiding Lands near the end. And yeah, people complain about the Guiding Lands (and a lot of those complaints were addressed in subsequent patches), but it was a very cool feature that they kept hidden for their most committed players. SB in contrast feels rather barebones, even in terms of the number of monsters it adds, let alone other major features.

We're only talking about numbers based off the first 2 days. The end game grind and reception would not play a factor here. Most players would not have touched the stuff you're speaking of. We're talking about less than 500k difference with 2 days less tracking.

The overall reception of Sunbreak has been good thus far. We'll see how it shakes it long term for sales but I think some of this analysis is over complicating things. Rise has always posted numbers lower than World. Sunbreak being lower than Iceborn is not particularly shocking.
 
We're only talking about numbers based off the first 2 days. The end game grind and reception would not play a factor here. Most players would not have touched the stuff you're speaking of. We're talking about less than 500k difference with 2 days less tracking.

The overall reception of Sunbreak has been good thus far. We'll see how it shakes it long term for sales but I think some of this analysis is over complicating things. Rise has always posted numbers lower than World. Sunbreak being lower than Iceborn is not particularly shocking.

The post-game grind was never even touched upon in the game's marketing, which means most people probably just assumed it didn't exist. Under different circumstances, that may have been okay (ie; a surprise being withheld for people to discover themselves), but in the case of Rise specifically, the lacking post-game was a major topic of conversation and something that people hoped would be addressed in an expansion.

This is just me theorizing/speculating, but it feels as though Capcom wasn't prepared for Rise to sell as well as it did. And as a result, they weren't really prepared to build on its success in any meaningful way, either. I sincerely believe both Rise and Sunbreak had the potential to do even better.

Topic for another time, but it does make you wonder what the future of the "secondary" line of Monster Hunter games is going to be. I'd imagine the lesson they'll (rightfully) take away from Rise is that you can very well have two parallel lines of MH games, with both designed for greater engagement. There will continue to be stylistic differences, of course, but I believe there's no need for the "portable" MH games to be designed completely around being played only in smaller bursts, going forward. There's room to do a lot more with these.
 
Sunbreak does seem to have a meatier endgame grind with afflicted monsters and level 10 weapons. And it's got a pretty ambitious DLC schedule mapped out too, I'm not sure the endgame complaint applies anymore like with Rise.
 
Isn't Sunbreak pretty similar to vanilla Iceborne, content-wise?
Btw

if there are 2 days less, on a 7-day tracked period
if the Master edition is counted for Iceborne and not for Sunbreak
if the convertion rate (from base game --> into expansion) is higher for Rise-to-Sunbreak than World-to-Iceborne

I'd say that we are looking at pretty similar numbers, both simply great

(if those assumptions are not correct, my bad)

I'm assuming the set sales for Sunbreak are counted in the 2M number because it wouldn't make sense otherwise. I was confused at first but since both are individual SKUs (there's no Master Edition for Rise+Sunbreak) then numbers should be straightforward this time. But hopefully this will become clear once they update the platinum page next month.

Conversion rate is likely higher for Iceborne since you'd have to remove the PC version from the equation. When Iceborne launched for PS/XB the PC version was already out for more than a year, so the numbers are likely pretty significant considering we know that the PC version from base World was ~36% of the total sales (which where at ~16.5M when the Capcom leaked happened in 2020).

But we'll see how things evolve. For comparison sake we know that by the end of september 2021 the attach rate for the Iceborne expansion was at ~34% (for those who only bought base World and acquired IB after). If you include the Master Edition then the overall IB attach rate would be ~42%.
 
How far in are you, do you know for a fact that is not the case?

Yup! There's a finite amount of stuff to do in the game. Going to be careful with spoilers, but basically:

• There's a "hidden" monster to fight at MR100
• There are "afflicted" (more aggressive) monsters to fight after the story
• You get "afflicted materials" for this, which allows you to upgrade any weapon all the way to Rarity 10
• You also get Outfit Vouchers for Master Rank layered armours

In some ways, that sounds like World/Iceborne, but the key thing is that it's a fairly stripped down, oldschool approach to grinding. Nothing on the level of the Guiding Lands, where you're actually doing procedurally-generated stuff in procedurally-generated environments, which helped keep things a little more interesting and exploratory.
 
Yup! There's a finite amount of stuff to do in the game. Going to be careful with spoilers, but basically:


In some ways, that sounds like World/Iceborne, but the key thing is that it's a fairly stripped down, oldschool approach to grinding. Nothing on the level of the Guiding Lands, where you're actually doing procedurally-generated stuff in procedurally-generated environments, which helped keep things a little more interesting and exploratory.
Not going to look at the spoiler, I am 15-20 hours in, but at my pace, which is a snail's pace, doing MR2 missions plus fooling around with follower quests and such, relearning in the meantime some of my lost skills bit by bit.
 
Everyone hated guiding lands though, they only did it for the rewards.

Only if you listened to the grumpy streamers/speedrunners! Guiding Lands got a ton of play from the audience, and Capcom spent a lot of time and effort tweaking and fine-tuning that system through patches. It was part of why MHW had such staying power, especially on PC.
 
Only if you listened to the grumpy streamers/speedrunners! Guiding Lands got a ton of play from the audience, and Capcom spent a lot of time and effort tweaking and fine-tuning that system through patches. It was part of why MHW had such staying power, especially on PC.
In fairness, the complaints abotu the structure of the endgame of Rise came from essentially the same breadth and source of people who complained about the Guiding Lands

For the vast, overwhelming majority of players, that stuff doesn't actually matter that much, and doesn't have a deleterious effect on the word of mouth. Blaming Sunbreak's late-game structural realities for its (still-excellent) sales in the first couple of days is attributing knowledge that the general public couldn't have at the time
 
We are looking at an actual "If you take away all the people who complained, there is noone who actually complained" argument here. I am wondering where this belief that we "know" how majority people are playing the game for are playing for come from.

I mean I got a 1000 sample size survey dismissed for being "bad data", so I am interested to see where the data is to supports this

What I am seeing is that the complaints for SB endgame is largely the same as IB. I have not specifically seen anyone saying "man I wish SB is like IB with its procedurally generated content". The only things I see are GFX comparisons and, of course, platform warring.
 
Without data to back it up and so early in the life of such a long game, it feels like trying to attribute any aspect of its sales to endgame structure, positive or negative, is more of a conversation about what the participants do or do not like about Sunbreak itself. That's not completely divorced from what makes the game popular, but it's not data-driven at all
 
In fairness, the complaints abotu the structure of the endgame of Rise came from essentially the same breadth and source of people who complained about the Guiding Lands

For the vast, overwhelming majority of players, that stuff doesn't actually matter that much, and doesn't have a deleterious effect on the word of mouth. Blaming Sunbreak's late-game structural realities for its (still-excellent) sales in the first couple of days is attributing knowledge that the general public couldn't have at the time

The thing is, Sunbreak is an expansion, so it naturally relies on the more passionate fans to evangelize it and sell it to everyone else. The biggest tell in this regard is how the marketing specifically targeted Monster Hunter's core audience with reveals of old favourites. These folks are the most likely to be sceptical and questioning of the game's feature set.

That said, it's only one part of all the possible reasons that Sunbreak's seen a somewhat tepid launch. Ultimately, Rise and World are two very different games, and I think there are aspects of World—including things like the presentation, the grandeur, the attempt at a more "epic" story spanning multiple locales, ongoing engagement mechanics etc.—that have played a role in that game's long-term performance as well.

And yes, this is obviously all conjecture at this point. We'll see how Sunbreak holds up over the next few weeks/months. It could rebound.
 
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Sunbreak includes PC sales which is why there's the talk. As of now, it is not far-fetched to think that it will lag behind Iceborne, more than it did with World.
Right, it won't get the same double dipping purchases Iceborne did from it's staggered launch. Though tbh, retention on both Iceborne and Sunbreak is well behind the PSP or 3DS G expansions anyway. This was probably inevitable with the more global (and also frankly more casual) audience explosion.

Honestly I think cross-play and cross-save would've helped Rise a bit in that area generally and with only two platforms it's something Capcom should've prioritized. It's going to be a necessity for MH6+ imo.
 
I still need to get to the end of Sunbreak but thus far I've had fun with it. I'm not sure how long the post game will last but it has been good so far. Can't really comment on it more than that though the monster count is light imo. Really should have had around 25 to start. What is there is fun and what they have added feels really nice.
 
There's a couple of reasons Sunbreak's launch sales are a point of discussion:

a) The game is on two highly successful platforms, both with a healthy software market
b) Back in 2014, Monster Hunter 4 Ultimate launched to 1.6 million copies sold at retail on a single platform in Japan alone
c) Subsequently, in 2017, Monster Hunter XX launched to 1 million copies sold at retail on a single platform in Japan alone

Given how much more of a global brand MH is now, it isn't outlandish to expect a stronger start than we're seeing. The next couple of weeks should be telling, in terms of what sort of short-term post-launch interest it's seeing, so that will inform the discussion further.
 
There's a couple of reasons Sunbreak's launch sales are a point of discussion:

a) The game is on two highly successful platforms, both with a healthy software market
b) Back in 2014, Monster Hunter 4 Ultimate launched to 1.6 million copies sold at retail on a single platform in Japan alone
c) Subsequently, in 2017, Monster Hunter XX launched to 1 million copies sold at retail on a single platform in Japan alone

Given how much more of a global brand MH is now, it isn't outlandish to expect a stronger start than we're seeing. The next couple of weeks should be telling, in terms of what sort of short-term post-launch interest it's seeing, so that will inform the discussion further.
This assumes two things that I don't think the data currently supports

1. That other regions buy expansions at the same rate as Japan
2. That the World/Rise audiences are as likely to buy expansions as the Gen 4-and-older audiences
 
There's a couple of reasons Sunbreak's launch sales are a point of discussion:

a) The game is on two highly successful platforms, both with a healthy software market
b) Back in 2014, Monster Hunter 4 Ultimate launched to 1.6 million copies sold at retail on a single platform in Japan alone
c) Subsequently, in 2017, Monster Hunter XX launched to 1 million copies sold at retail on a single platform in Japan alone

Given how much more of a global brand MH is now, it isn't outlandish to expect a stronger start than we're seeing. The next couple of weeks should be telling, in terms of what sort of short-term post-launch interest it's seeing, so that will inform the discussion further.
But this all also applies to Iceborne, yet I don't remember much real talk about a tepid launch or needing a rebound for it then?
 
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