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UPDATED: How much will Xenoblade Chronicles 3 sell? POST-REVEAL POLL

Now that XC3 has been officially revealed, how much do you think it will sell? (Worldwide LTD)

  • Total voters
    164
  • Poll closed .
Reader mode
roseandcigaret said:
You are jumping to conclusions. I never said anime designs can't be used, I said that if certain anime tropes are heavily emphasized it will likely limit the sales of the next entry. I don't personally care if the games remain the same or deviate- I like Xenoblade 2. But it's clear some of the conventions based on anime will turn off a lot of new users. Hell, even a turn based system arguably does for some. Or a battle system that has a complicated set of options. There are a variety of factors and I don't think it's sacrilege to suggest that there may be ways that may make a Xenoblade 3 better sell.
Click to expand...
About those "anime tropes", that argument is moot because if someone doesn't like anime, won't be interested in the game in the first place so it won't matter if the game has those or not. And if someone likes some anime but not certain tropes, he won't find out until he tries the game itself (buying the game) or spoils himself reading reactions of other users that don't like them so he would be a bit conditioned (maybe those reactions are exaggerated i.e. one of those Xenoblade2 haters that won't pass one minimal thing in Xenoblade3 if it remembers remotely to it, even if not truly the same trope). Those kind of users, I think, won't buy a Xenoblade game regardless of the changes.

Anyway, about people that don't like things like turn based fights or complicated game systems, yeah it can reduce the sales potential, but as I stated in the past on the old site, MSI/Nintendo don't need to water down the experience for sales sake. There are plenty of games with simpler battle systems out there for those who prefers it. As a Xenoblade fan I want those elements to stay and evolve. If I want something different, I know where to look to find it.

If the sales stagnated at 2-3million for the series, that's a marvellous result for them after all previous efforts since Xenosaga/Baten Kaitos/Disaster and I doubt they won't be happy with it. I don't expect (or want) Xenoblade to become Pokemon or Dragon Quest TBH.
 
Compilation_Armor_Shulk.jpg
Compilation_Armor_Melia.jpg


It's crazy to me that people can look at the above and be like "this is fine".

Maybe because art is my thing from my distant youth to now but imo this is horrific.
Just cluttered and overly busy designs.

Let me make one thing clear.
I enjoy anime greatly. Always have, since I was first exposed to Vampire Hunter D and Record of the Lodoss War on the scifi Saturday morning block in the mid 90s.
I've watched Re:Zero/ Aot/ GrimGar/My life as a Slime/Bnha/etc.
I even plan on catching Belle early next year.

The above definitely doesn't strike me as Nintendo major ip class art direction, just being honest.
I'm just not seeing it.

For those who like/love it, happy for you. But I wouldn't expect the above to push past 2 million easily, if at all. Especially when it's paired with a dense battle system.
 
Uniomni said:
Compilation_Armor_Shulk.jpg
Compilation_Armor_Melia.jpg


It's crazy to me that people can look at the above and be like "this is fine".

Maybe because art is my thing from my distant youth to now but imo this is horrific.
Just cluttered and overly busy designs.

Let me make one thing clear.
I enjoy anime greatly. Always have, since I was first exposed to Vampire Hunter D and Record of the Lodoss War on the scifi Saturday morning block in the mid 90s.
I've watched Re:Zero/ Aot/ GrimGar/My life as a Slime/Bnha/etc.
I even plan on catching Belle early next year.

The above definitely doesn't strike me as Nintendo major ip class art direction, just being honest.
I'm just not seeing it.

For those who like/love it, happy for you. But I wouldn't expect the above to push past 2 million easily, if at all. Especially when it's paired with a dense battle system.
Click to expand...

Well, not the same game but XC2 is pushing well past 2M. That said, it's widely accepted that armour/suit design is one of the series' weak links, and Takahashi has more or less stated that they are still in search of a main artist who can become as recognisable as Nomura is.

On the other hand I think these posts are ignoring their outstanding environmental art direction, which makes the games very appealing for many people in spite of the less attractive (or more problematic) stuff.

Joseki said:
Difficult to say but if it is really a direct sequel to both XC1 and XC2 it's gonna be hard for it to exceed XC2 by much if at all.
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We can't be sure, but I don't think the game will be that obvious of a direct sequel. It will probably introduce its own setting and main cast, and a (mainly) self-contained story for first-timers. However some characters and connections to previous games may be explored, which long-time fans will surely appreciate. In other words, I believe they will repeat the XC2 approach in order to not alienate potential new buyers, only this time connections and returning characters will be a bit more evident.
 
Arynio said:
Well, not the same game but XC2 is pushing well past 2M. That said, it's widely accepted that armour/suit design is one of the series' weak links, and Takahashi has more or less stated that they are still in search of a main artist who can become as recognisable as Nomura is.

On the other hand I think these posts are ignoring their outstanding environmental art direction, which makes the games very appealing for many people in spite of the less attractive (or more problematic) stuff.
Click to expand...
See, I wasn't aware that it's been a known and acknowledged weakness in the art design, even from the studio head.
Even in here, it was decried as concern trolling(wtf is that ne-ways) or "this is the popular anime look", when myself and others said the art design needs work to perhaps expand the sales potential.

And I have no issue with the world design for the most part.
Keep what works and fix/improve/ change what doesn't.
 
Uniomni said:
See, I wasn't aware that it's been a known and acknowledged weakness in the art design, even from the studio head.
Even in here, it was decried as concern trolling(wtf is that ne-ways) or "this is the popular anime look", when myself and others said the art design needs work to perhaps expand the sales potential.

And I have no issue with the world design for the most part.
Keep what works and fix/improve/ change what doesn't.
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You posted screenshots from the Wii-version of Xenoblade 1. I was talking about Xenoblade 2 the whole time (and so were you). Please don't do this.
 
I wonder how many people ITT realize Genshin Impact is a global phenomenon that trends on Twitter every time a character sneezes and is super anime like Xenoblade 2 in both artstyle, questionable female designs and tropes and literally everything.
 
Tokuiten said:
You posted screenshots from the Wii-version of Xenoblade 1. I was talking about Xenoblade 2 the whole time (and so were you). Please don't do this.
Click to expand...
I was talking about the Xenoblade series in its entirety.
You may have been referring to XB2 but I meant the series on the whole.
I own and played the Switch remake/remaster and the battle system was severely off-putting when the Monado came into play. When I looked at buying XB2, nothing I disliked seemed to be changed and if anything they doubled down on it via various guest artists and the battle system looked even more obtuse.
So I passed, and jrpgs are the genre I enjoy the most.
And tbh whether Wii/Switch DE FC version or Xb2, I never hid that imo it would need significant retooling to break into new ground saleswise.
This isn't me attacking you or anyone, this was me expressing surprise that even the studio head was aware of and confirmed the issues that might be holding the games back.
 
Uniomni said:
See, I wasn't aware that it's been a known and acknowledged weakness in the art design, even from the studio head.
Even in here, it was decried as concern trolling(wtf is that ne-ways) or "this is the popular anime look", when myself and others said the art design needs work to perhaps expand the sales potential.

And I have no issue with the world design for the most part.
Keep what works and fix/improve/ change what doesn't.
Click to expand...

Hmm, Takahashi never directly acknowledged any weakness, though. That's your reading. Since paraphrasing may lead to misunderstandings, here's his quote:

“We’re also looking for character designers. My decision for this is not really for this project specifically, but because I have a strong desire to find a designer who can become the face of Monolith Soft in the future. During my time at Square, I met very talented designers such as Nomura-kun (Tetsuya Nomura), and it would be a dream-come-true to have someone as talented (Although we did get Nomura-kun for Xenoblade 2). If only we had someone like that at Monolith Soft… Of course, we’re not looking just for character designers, but other artwork staff, too.” -Tetsuya Takahashi

Source: https://www.monolithsoft.co.jp/recruit/production01/

Unofficial translation: https://xenomira.wordpress.com/2018...shi-production-development-staff-recruitment/

Take that as you wish.

**************************

As for the concern-trolling accusations, there are historical reasons for that. It's literally impossible to have any discussion about any particular aspect of XC2 without the round of criticism at the game's problematic stuff, even when it has nothing to do with the topic at hand. Of course it's very important to be vocal about those issues, so that hopefully MS reconsiders certain choices and their next game is free from that, but I don't think it's entirely fair towards the game, their creators or the fanbase to spoon-feed the same arguments over and over and over again even when other unrelated aspects are being discussed.

Now since this is a thread about sales prospects I think there should be room for those discussions, but you probably agree with me that having someone so active in a thread about a series they dislike (or they rather be replaced with another IP, as you mentioned before in a post which IMO is completely off-topic) can ruffle some feathers.
 
Uniomni said:
See, I wasn't aware that it's been a known and acknowledged weakness in the art design, even from the studio head.
Click to expand...
Xenoblade 1's armor designs have been a point of criticism literally since the day it released. If you had not read about it that's okay but like, this isn't a unique take.

Uniomni said:
Even in here, it was decried as concern trolling(wtf is that ne-ways) or "this is the popular anime look"
Click to expand...
No one has ever said this about Xenoblade 1 armour designs. Literally no one lol. The default outfits of the cast are pretty solid though. Dunban ♡

Uniomni said:
I was talking about the Xenoblade series in its entirety.
You may have been referring to XB2 but I meant the series on the whole.
I own and played the Switch remake/remaster and the battle system was severely off-putting when the Monado came into play.
Click to expand...

The Mondao comes into play literally at the beginning of the game :/ Like the very first battle.

But you don't have to use them if you don't want to. Though the gameplay is take it or leave it like most JRPGs. I wouldn't consider it a major issue. The Xenoblade series is still selling 1.5m+ units per entry. JRPGs as a whole dont really cross 3m so there isn't a huge reason to believe that gameplay is the limiting factor vs the genre and budget.
 
Arynio said:
Hmm, Takahashi never directly acknowledged any weakness, though. That's your reading. Since paraphrasing may lead to misunderstandings, here's his quote:

“We’re also looking for character designers. My decision for this is not really for this project specifically, but because I have a strong desire to find a designer who can become the face of Monolith Soft in the future. During my time at Square, I met very talented designers such as Nomura-kun (Tetsuya Nomura), and it would be a dream-come-true to have someone as talented (Although we did get Nomura-kun for Xenoblade 2). If only we had someone like that at Monolith Soft… Of course, we’re not looking just for character designers, but other artwork staff, too.” -Tetsuya Takahashi

Source: https://www.monolithsoft.co.jp/recruit/production01/

Unofficial translation: https://xenomira.wordpress.com/2018...shi-production-development-staff-recruitment/

Take that as you wish.

**************************

As for the concern-trolling accusations, there are historical reasons for that. It's literally impossible to have any discussion about any particular aspect of XC2 without the round of criticism at the game's problematic stuff, even when it has nothing to do with the topic at hand. Of course it's very important to be vocal about those issues, so that hopefully MS reconsiders certain choices and their next game is free from that, but I don't think it's entirely fair towards the game, their creators or the fanbase to spoon-feed the same arguments over and over and over again even when other unrelated aspects are being discussed.

Now since this is a thread about sales prospects I think there should be room for those discussions, but you probably agree with me that having someone so active in a thread about a series they dislike (or they rather be replaced with another IP, as you mentioned before in a post which IMO is completely off-topic) can ruffle some feathers.
Click to expand...
Acknowledged
 
Gotdatmoney said:
Xenoblade 1's armor designs have been a point of criticism literally since the day it released. If you had not read about it that's okay but like, this isn't a unique take.


No one has ever said this about Xenoblade 1 armour designs. Literally no one lol. The default outfits of the cast are pretty solid though. Dunban ♡



The Mondao comes into play literally at the beginning of the game :/ Like the very first battle.

But you don't have to use them if you don't want to. Though the gameplay is take it or leave it like most JRPGs. I wouldn't consider it a major issue. The Xenoblade series is still selling 1.5m+ units per entry. JRPGs as a whole dont really cross 3m so there isn't a huge reason to believe that gameplay is the limiting factor vs the genre and budget.
Click to expand...

I guess I don't see much of a difference between the art direction of 1 and 2, tbh.
1 is definitely worse than 2 but imo it's still close. And no, I wasn't aware that Xb1 art was derided from day one.
I was interested in MonolithSoft since Somabringer, before Operation Rainfall was a thing. It wasn't until I actually got to play the game that I saw how bad it was.

Not the opening scene but when the robot aliens at the city and you have to use the monado to beat them in successive battles.
I legit had no idea what I was meant to do.
Before that I just grinded out quests, killing the local monsters and running through the factory caves, trying to get higher rated equipment.
 
Uniomni said:
I guess I don't see much of a difference between the art direction of 1 and 2, tbh.
1 is definitely worse than 2 but imo it's still close. And no, I wasn't aware that Xb1 art was derided from day one.
I was interested in MonolithSoft since Somabringer, before Operation Rainfall was a thing. It wasn't until I actually got to play the game that I saw how bad it was.
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The armour design is so so so bad in Xenoblade 1. Like legitimately awful. The art direction in 1 is definitely more coherent if you stick to the default outfits but the armour design is just poor. It's been a point of contention in all their titles. I'd say, their modeling has improved a lot but designs are hit and miss. If you look at Torna the Golden Country I'd say that is the top end of their art direction for characters.

Uniomni said:
Not the opening scene but when the robot aliens at the city and you have to use the monado to beat them in successive battles.
I legit had no idea what I was meant to do.
Before that I just grinded out quests, killing the local monsters and running through the factory caves, trying to get higher rated equipment.
Click to expand...

I'd say play it more, at that point in the game it isn't really complicated. You just use monado enchant and then everything else is basically the same as before.

The world design is the main thing the Xenoblade games are known for. Character designs have generally been a poorly received aspect though imo it's more mixed bag than bad.
 
Gotdatmoney said:
The armour design is so so so bad in Xenoblade 1. Like legitimately awful. The art direction in 1 is definitely more coherent if you stick to the default outfits but the armour design is just poor. It's been a point of contention in all their titles. I'd say, their modeling has improved a lot but designs are hit and miss. If you look at Torna the Golden Country I'd say that is the top end of their art direction for characters.



I'd say play it more, at that point in the game it isn't really complicated. You just use monado enchant and then everything else is basically the same as before.

The world design is the main thing the Xenoblade games are known for. Character designs have generally been a poorly received aspect though imo it's more mixed bag than bad.
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They get a brilliant, gifted head artist and rethink the battle systems and I'm in there like swimwear.
It seems like questionable art design is kinda hitting many studios these days.
I saw the new Star Ocean(which definitely looks like it's taking cues from Xenoblade) and the character designs are wtf?
Maybe they need new blood or something over there.
 
Between 3-4 million. I assume this has much higher budget than Xeno 1 and 2.

I think Monolith can think of introducing somekind of PvP multiplayer, or even a PvE battle royale style mode. With a good multiplayer mode, they can aim for +5 millions.
 
You know what though? I'm sorry.
I just did a bit of a deep dive into MonolithSoft's past works and concept art and while their character/costume design isn't to my exact tastes, it's unfair and wrong to say they're not talented.

They definitely are.

The environmental concepts and pieces are beautiful, flatout.

I'm just huffy because that medieval high fantasy project they teased before never materialized.

They're a talented studio and one of Nintendo's best moves in terms of purchases.
Just waiting for some of that Chrono Cross magic to resurface in another project.
 
Uniomni said:
They get a brilliant, gifted head artist and rethink the battle systems and I'm in there like swimwear.
It seems like questionable art design is kinda hitting many studios these days.
I saw the new Star Ocean(which definitely looks like it's taking cues from Xenoblade) and the character designs are wtf?
Maybe they need new blood or something over there.
Click to expand...

For Monolith it really is their character design that is all over the place. Their environmental design is legitimately incredible. All 3 Xenoblade games have amazing world art and design.

I don't want to post Golden Country characters cause some people are spoiler crazy but legit Addam, Lora, Hugo, Haze and Minoth all have great designs (look them up). I personally have always enjoyed Malos design as well. Oozes douchebag in the best way.

I think mostly Monolith has good artists but they just need to reign them in a bit on certain aspects.
 
TheWon said:
Kind of related to this topic on potential sales for part 3. In the TvAsahi Top 100 fan poll Xenoblade2 ranked at 35 and Xenoblade came in at 43 behind Persona 5. Xenoblade is a up and coming ip that is ready for its big sales break through. https://www.gematsu.com/2021/12/ove...sole-games-in-tv-asahi-poll-top-100-announced
Click to expand...

Also related, Xenoblade 2 merch are also quite popular as well. Thanks to Joseki from the MC thread for bringing this up.



Just really shows how the game and characters' popularity overall are quite high. Monolithsoft really needs to capitalize on the Xenoblade brand while it's hot.
 
TheWon said:
Kind of related to this topic on potential sales for part 3. In the TvAsahi Top 100 fan poll Xenoblade2 ranked at 35 and Xenoblade came in at 43 behind Persona 5. Xenoblade is a up and coming ip that is ready for its big sales break through. https://www.gematsu.com/2021/12/ove...sole-games-in-tv-asahi-poll-top-100-announced
Click to expand...
A bit sad that the mention of Xenoblade and Xenoblade 2 were just a few seconds without any fanfare, ala The Game Awards giving some minor award lol. They deserved a bit more, even some Takahashi declarations lol :p Probably not a main featurette like the big games, but a bit more that what they got. It was pretty easy to miss those sections.
 
I just want MonolithSoft to contract whoever did the art of Triangle Strategy to do the art design for the next MonolithSoft new ip.

A cellshaded 3d jrpg, complete with cozy towns of various settings, a novel battle system + maybe scenario/story design by whoever wrote FE:3H.

I'd rather Matsuno but it's unlikely to happen.

Such an ip would bring back the lapsed gamers who left jrpgdom because the dearth of proper towns in the HD era.
4.5 million sold within a year and a half.
 
It's half wishful half curiosity but I'd like Monolith to make a game that would have next to nothing from Xb2 and see if it'd grow, stay flat or or do less.
Maybe even 2 games, 1 with very different theme, mood ans gameplay and one kind of like the Baten Kaitos.

They could keep the "Xenoblade" name to see if it did anything. But how much would the number make a difference (if it's "3" versus what people would call spin off).

I guess I might already be answering my own question awhen it comes to numbered versus not, I think, are usually prioritised by people, unfortunately.

Maybe MH-like titles would be interesting to see. Rise, World...
But I'm sure "fans" would be arbitrarily say that this or this title is 3, 4... while the rest is spin off anyway ha ha.
 
Japan Sales FW: 310k
Japan Sales LTD: 900k
Worldwide LTD: 4.5 M

I am going to be bullish on this game's prospects.
 
rAndom said:
Also related, Xenoblade 2 merch are also quite popular as well. Thanks to Joseki from the MC thread for bringing this up.



Just really shows how the game and characters' popularity overall are quite high. Monolithsoft really needs to capitalize on the Xenoblade brand while it's hot.
Click to expand...

The Xenoblade 2 characters are popular, and I wouldn't disagree with that. But I see the AmiAmi thing get mentioned a lot, and it's misleading. AmiAmi has an exclusive on all of the Xenoblade 2 figures. The only places you can buy them are AmiAmi and Amazon JP. This is rare. Most exclusives the store has are just for bonus items that come with figures. The Xenoblade figures will have inflated positions at AmiAmi due to this. The figures and characters are still popular, no doubt. But this stat gets posted a lot and it gives the impression that these are the most popular characters among the people who buy figures, and that's most likely not the case.
 
UnusMundus said:
The Xenoblade 2 characters are popular, and I wouldn't disagree with that. But I see the AmiAmi thing get mentioned a lot, and it's misleading. AmiAmi has an exclusive on all of the Xenoblade 2 figures. The only places you can buy them are AmiAmi and Amazon JP. This is rare. Most exclusives the store has are just for bonus items that come with figures. The Xenoblade figures will have inflated positions at AmiAmi due to this. The figures and characters are still popular, no doubt. But this stat gets posted a lot and it gives the impression that these are the most popular characters among the people who buy figures, and that's most likely not the case.
Click to expand...
Are you sure? I just checked and playasia was selling them, too (now sold out ofc).
 
Tokuiten said:
Are you sure? I just checked and playasia was selling them, too (now sold out ofc).
Click to expand...
Yes, I'm sure. I pre-ordered the figures during their first print run, and those were the only two online retailers in Japan stocking the figures. AmiAmi marketed them as exclusives as well. PlayAsia is not (at least normally) an official distributor of figures. They are a reseller. They are basically like people who buy PS5s from Japan to resell in other countries. That's why their prices on figures are usually higher than on Japanese sites; they are buying them from Japanese retailers and marking them up so they can make a profit. At this point there have been multiple print runs of the figures, so you'll be able to find second-hand product listed at a variety of stores in and out of Japan.

If you need proof, check the listings for various prints of the figures themselves.
Hikari:

AmiAmi [Character & Hobby Shop]

www.amiami.com www.amiami.com

KOS-MOS:

AmiAmi [Character & Hobby Shop]

www.amiami.com www.amiami.com

Homura:

AmiAmi [Character & Hobby Shop]

www.amiami.com www.amiami.com

AmiAmi [Character & Hobby Shop]

www.amiami.com www.amiami.com

Looks like the listings for the original printings are pulled, but these are the most recent prints, which would have been what was being ordered in the 2021 numbers cited. Every listing has them shown as "Exclusive Sale."
 
UnusMundus said:
Yes, I'm sure. I pre-ordered the figures during their first print run, and those were the only two online retailers in Japan stocking the figures. AmiAmi marketed them as exclusives as well. PlayAsia is not (at least normally) an official distributor of figures. They are a reseller. They are basically like people who buy PS5s from Japan to resell in other countries. That's why their prices on figures are usually higher than on Japanese sites; they are buying them from Japanese retailers and marking them up so they can make a profit. At this point there have been multiple print runs of the figures, so you'll be able to find second-hand product listed at a variety of stores in and out of Japan.

If you need proof, check the listings for various prints of the figures themselves.
Hikari:

AmiAmi [Character & Hobby Shop]

www.amiami.com www.amiami.com

KOS-MOS:

AmiAmi [Character & Hobby Shop]

www.amiami.com www.amiami.com

Homura:

AmiAmi [Character & Hobby Shop]

www.amiami.com www.amiami.com

AmiAmi [Character & Hobby Shop]

www.amiami.com www.amiami.com

Looks like the listings for the original printings are pulled, but these are the most recent prints, which would have been what was being ordered in the 2021 numbers cited. Every listing has them shown as "Exclusive Sale."
Click to expand...
Hm, I'm not 100% sure here. I have a friend who bought Kos-Mos on release (had her preordered) at PlayAsia and he paid less than I did at Amiami. Maybe some weird case? That aside I have no reason not to believe you :)
 
Tokuiten said:
Hm, I'm not 100% sure here. I have a friend who bought Kos-Mos on release (had her preordered) at PlayAsia and he paid less than I did at Amiami. Maybe some weird case? That aside I have no reason not to believe you :)
Click to expand...
I can't explain PlayAsia's sourcing/pricing in every case, so I don't know what to say. Maybe you're not taking into account differences in shipping and taxes. Or maybe Play-Asia got a good deal somehow. I have no clue. But you can clearly see that AmiAmi has an exclusive per the listings. Other Japanese places like Hobby Search didn't carry them.

If you really doubt me, you can check records on My Figure Collection.
myfigurecollection.net

Xenoblade 2 - Homura - 1/7 (Good Smile Company, Max Factory)

Xenoblade 2 - Homura - 1/7 (Good Smile Company, Max Factory)
myfigurecollection.net myfigurecollection.net
myfigurecollection.net

Xenoblade 2 - Hikari - 1/7 (Good Smile Company)

Xenoblade 2 - Hikari - 1/7 (Good Smile Company)
myfigurecollection.net myfigurecollection.net
myfigurecollection.net

Xenoblade 2 - KOS-MOS - 1/7 - Re: (Good Smile Company, Max Factory)

Xenoblade 2 - KOS-MOS - 1/7 - Re: (Good Smile Company, Max Factory)
myfigurecollection.net myfigurecollection.net
myfigurecollection.net

Xenoblade Definitive Edition - Melia Ancient - 1/7 (Good Smile Company)

Xenoblade Definitive Edition - Melia Ancient - 1/7 (Good Smile Company)
myfigurecollection.net myfigurecollection.net

You can see they are all listed as exclusives, for all print runs. The Homura listing actually goes into details on the exclusive, specifying it was exclusive to AmiAmi, Amazon, and the GoodSmile shop.
 
TheWon said:
Any updates on the sale numbers of 2 at least Digital numbers! Seems it got a new audience in 2021 thanks to SmashBros! https://automaton-media.com/en/news/20220113-8428/amp/
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Not until CESA publishes its 2021 White Paper in Spring.

However we do know XC2 charted in the JP eShop top 30 of H1 2021 (https://www.installbaseforum.com/fo...les-week-50-2021-dec-13-dec-19.390/post-27916) with sales estimated at <70k, and must have just missed it in the FY chart. Sensible estimates for the lower charting games in the latter chart were at ~100k (https://www.installbaseforum.com/fo...les-week-50-2021-dec-13-dec-19.390/post-27855), so it seems likely that XC2 sold below but probably not far from that figure (maybe 80-90k?) in the JP eShop in 2021 alone.
 
Japan sales FW: 300K
Japan sales LTD: 750K
Worldwide LTD: 3.8 million

Was thinking something lower but glad i forgot all about this until the direct. Raising my expectations.
 
I'll make a new thread tomorrow or so (when immediate hype has calmed down a bit) with a poll added, so now we can make predictions WITH knowing a little about the game ;)
 
Haven't really changed my stance because it's basically exactly what I expected from the rumors. 3m is still the ceiling imo
 
DarkDetective said:
You can also just add a poll to this thread, right?
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OHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH :D

Sorry, I never saw a forum that allowed the peasant user to add a vote AFTER a thread has already been created :D Then I will do that.

Fake-edit #2 OHHHHHHH, I can edit the title, too! IB be based <3

Uguu :( Just had the new vote finished, clicked save, then this page loads:

"Oops! We ran into some problems.​


You do not have permission to view this page or perform this action."

Guess a mod/admin has to do it after all. @DarkDetective if it's okay I'll send you a PM with the vote and update I had in mind.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Tokuiten said:
Uguu :( Just had the new vote finished, clicked save, then this page loads:

"Oops! We ran into some problems.​


You do not have permission to view this page or perform this action."

Guess a mod/admin has to do it after all. @DarkDetective if it's okay I'll send you a PM with the vote and update I had in mind.
Click to expand...
Yeah, let's do that. Really weird though. Something for us to look into.


Edit: for me, the poll shows?
 
Then it's time to post my updated sales prediction ^^ I definitely feel more bullish about Xenoblade 3's sales after yesterday's reveal. Really looks like a game that's coming together nicely. The grand story from Xenoblade 1, the likeable characters from Xenoblade 2 and the vast world from Xenoblade X. All held together by Yasunori Mitsuda's otherworldish music. And the modern day (or maybe "futuristic" even) outfits of the characters should appeal even moreso to a wider audience than the fantastical outfits from 1 and 2. Here goes:

Japan Sales FW: 480k
Japan Sales LTD: 1100k
Worldwide LTD: 4.3 mio

I'm going with some huge milestones here, but I'd really love for this franchise to hit the 1 mio mark. Maybe that's too early, but a perfect storm is in the making imo. Maybe Xenoblade 3 can actually surpass FF16 in Japan? Hm ...
 
I think Xenoblade 3 will do similar number to Xenoblade 2 LTD wise, so 2.5-3m. I doubt the online forum obsession against XBC2 character design is really an issue for xenoblade audience.

XBC2 is a well received game with good legs for JRPG on a successful platform. The only thing that may have hold back its sales is that it released early on when switch installbase is still very small. However, considering its leg, I don’t think it was much of an issue.
 
I say 3-4M. Xenoblade has attracted alot of attention in the past 5 years from Xenoblade 2 and Pyra/Mythra in Smash.
At the very least it's going to be the best selling game in the series.
 
Voted 3 - 3.49 mio.
DarkDetective said:
Xenoblade Chronicles 3
Xenoblade Chronicles 2 expanded the audience of this series a lot, and this new release ties into it. I don't follow the series, so I have no idea what to think of the trailer from the Direct, but assuming a positive reception upon launch, I expect Xenoblade Chronicles 3 to provide healthy growth for the franchise. The hardcore audiences are still active on the Switch, so that shouldn't cause any problems. My guess is Xenoblade Chronicles 2's life-to-date shipments are currently around 2.50 million. For 3, my target is 3 million.
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Tokuiten said:
but it's safe to say that most people who played Xenoblade 2 liked the designs.
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I loved XC and X. X2 not so much.

X2 was in some parts embarrassing bad. Its like you look at the third continuation of your favorite movie and because the first two had few viewer than expected they producer put more boobs, soft porn and some weird pedo stuff in there and on top of that made characters and storyline more childish, so everything in the handbook to boost at least niche viewer sales. X2 is a weird conglomerate.

X2 sold more than the predecessors because it is on Switch not because it has more widespread appeal than the first two.
 
edit: doesnt matter
 
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Tokuiten said:
To the 2-3 mio people:

Do you think that Xenoblade 3 basically cannot sell meaningfully more than Xenoblade 2, or is it that you consider, say, 2.8 mio a significant step up from Xenoblade 2's ca. 2.2 mio? Wondering.
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The genre has its limits. Half a million difference is quite huge.
 
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