UPDATED: How much will Xenoblade Chronicles 3 sell? POST-REVEAL POLL

[Tokuiten]

Now that Xenoblade Chronicles 3 has been officially announced and gave us a good look at what it's gonna be, we can have another vote, this time more informed than the last one. The last poll unfortunately got lost, so if you're confused why there's a new poll, that's the reason. If you have already posted you more detailed predictions earlier in this thread, either edit your old post of make a new one (if your prediction changed - if it's the same as before yesterday's game reveal, you're good). That's it for this time, let's wait and see who gets closest! Have fun."

See original OP:
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There has been more frequent talk about Xenoblade in recent days, Xenoblade 3 specifically, in context of when it releases, some saying 2022, others less optimistic and going for a later year. But there's another topic was touched upon before and that makes for a great prediction thread: How much will Xenoblade Chronicles 3 sell?

Things to keep in mind:
- Xenoblade 1 barely made it to the USA
- Xenoblade X was stifled by being tied to the flopped Wii U
- Despite that, the franchise became loved enough that Shulk made it into Smash Bros
- Xenoblade 2 became the best-selling Monolith Soft-game of all times with a little over 2 million units sold, beating any past Xeno-title
- it released not even a year into the Switch' life on a small installed hardware base
- Xenoblade 2 had extreme legs, very unusual for the genre, pointing towards good word of mouth
- Pyra and Mythra became popular enough to show up in Smash Bros as a second Xenoblade-fighter spot
- Xenoblade 1 was extensively remastered and sold over a million, too. Moreover, it brought the beginning part of the on-going overarching plot to Switch.

I've seen a lot of differing opinions on this topic and it also heavily depends on the time and platform you expect Xenoblade 3 to release on. Going by whatever you believe, what is the sales potential for Xenoblade 3?

The format I'd like to propose for this prediction is as follows:

Japan Sales FW:
Japan Sales LTD:
Worldwide LTD:

(Worldwide FW would probably be too hard to track data-wise, but the rest is data we should get at some point. Feel free to add your worldwide FW-prediction, too, though)

I chose to make this thread now before the game is revealed to gauge the potential of the franchise and not a specific game. It'd be interesting, however, if you revisted this thread after the game is revealed and add your revised preidction IF you feel like revising it, whether that's up or down. Leave your old prediction, though, makes it more interesting for everyone Anyway, have fun and feel free to write in full detail why you think what you predict. Poll is stays open until the end of the year.

 

[Tokuiten]

My prediction:

Japan Sales FW: 250k
Japan Sales LTD: 650k
Worldwide LTD: 3.2 mio

 

[Abzeronow]

Japan Sales FW: 350k
Japan Sales LTD: 800k
Worldwide LTD: 4.20 M

 

[Joseki]

Difficult to say but if it is really a direct sequel to both XC1 and XC2 it's gonna be hard for it to exceed XC2 by much if at all.

 

[WestEgg]

I think it should pretty easily become the best selling in the series, interest only seems to grow with each new game.

Japan Sales FW: 280K
Japan Sales LTD: 900K
Worldwide LTD: 3.9 million

 

[Kenka]

This thread is a bit rushed, we don't have a single element about the game to discuss. Gameplay, graphics, story elements, music. We have nothing.

Yes, I am cranky. No I don't care what you think.

Spoiler: Spoiler

Na.

 

[cw_sasuke]

This thread is a bit rushed, we don't have a single element about the game to discuss. Gameplay, graphics, story elements, music. We have nothing.

Yes, I am cranky. No I don't care what you think.

Spoiler: Spoiler

Na.

I agree.
Don't wanna come off as an hater, guess I just try to understand the appeal of predicting sales about unannounced games we know nothing about ?

At the same time i can recognize that its a good OP and the thread starter presented things as well as you can this point.

@Topic
Gonna post predictions once its unveiled.

 

[DecoReturns]

Well. Natural progression, So the goal should be to exceed Xenoblade 2 when it’s all said and done. Cross 3 million

 

[Lord Azrael]

Around what the second one did. So ~2m

 

[Tokuiten]

This thread is a bit rushed, we don't have a single element about the game to discuss. Gameplay, graphics, story elements, music. We have nothing.

Yes, I am cranky. No I don't care what you think.

Spoiler: Spoiler

Na.

I agree.
Don't wanna come off as an hater, guess I just try to understand the appeal of predicting sales about unannounced games we know nothing about ?

At the same time i can recognize that its a good OP and the thread starter presented things as well as you can this point.

@Topic
Gonna post predictions once its unveiled.

It's explained in the op, pls read. Prediction based on the franchise's potential rather than the specific game.

 

[Lord Azrael]

It's explained in the op, pls read. Prediction based on the franchise's potential rather than the specific game.

I don't blame anyone if they don't find that kind of exercise particularly interesting. Xeno games are so different between entries that any single new detail could wildly affect someone's prediction. Guessing solely based on franchise potential is a bit of a trite exercise of take however much the last entry sold, then adjust up/down a little based on generic market factors that apply to any game

 

[Tokuiten]

I don't blame anyone if they don't find that kind of exercise particularly interesting. Xeno games are so different between entries that any single new detail could wildly affect someone's prediction. Guessing solely based on franchise potential is a bit of a trite exercise of take however much the last entry sold, then adjust up/down a little based on generic market factors that apply to any game

That's ok. I'm the opposite, I find predicting based on specific information boring and trivial. Meanwhile as someone who's followed Xenoblade from the first game, I'm very excited to observe and predict its potential as a franchise akin to Final Fantasy, Persona, Dragon Quest or Tales of.

You're free to add your prediction after the reveal, though, if that's what you prefer.

 

[Aostia82]

At least 1 copy
Mine

 

[Judy]

At least 1 copy
Mine

You can make that two copies with mine as well! Future looking bright already.

In seriousness:

Japan Sales FW: 250k
Japan Sales LTD: 700k
Worldwide LTD: 3.5M

It'll be the biggest in the series due to natural growth and Smash, but I think there's still a ceiling on this kinda game. It is also too early to really accurately predicy - having Pyra/Mythra in and prominent in promo materials would be a big boon, for example.

 

[VengefulMagus]

I think it will end up being the best selling Xenoblade, but still not reach 3mil.

Japan Sales FW: 240K
Japan Sales LTD: 600K
Worldwide LTD: 2.8 million

But I agree that it's too early to start talking about how this will sell. I think if you wanted to talk about the potential of the series you shouldn't have made it focus on Xenoblade 3 when we don't know anything about it.

 

[uncleoptimus]

So this made me go and google "xenoblade 3 announce" and ... Nothing??

 

[Tokuiten]

having Pyra/Mythra in and prominent in promo materials would be a big boon, for example.

That's actually something we do kinda know, though. At least if you believe insiders like Imran Khan. The rumor afaik was that Xenoblade 3 takes place a long time after 2, but some characters would return. By the nature of long-living characters, there's only a few options. Whether that's the aegisses or other options, it probably will help sales.

 

[Judy]

That's actually we do kinda know, though. At least if you believe insiders like Imran Khan. The rumor afaik was that Xenoblade 3 takes place a long time after 2, but some characters would return. By the nature of long-living characters, there's only a few options. Whether that's the aegisses or other options, it probably will help sales.

True! It would make sense from a marketing perspective to have the poster girl(s) from Smash in too.

So long as we get more Melia I'm game

 

[WestEgg]

So this made me go and google "xenoblade 3 announce" and ... Nothing??

There’s been enough smoke that the game’s existence is pretty common knowledge. Even then, it’s a hypothetical anyway, we don’t need the official confirmation to speculate.

 

[K samedi]

Wasn’t the ip born out of Iwata wanting a FF killer? I think with the experience of the team and Nintendo’s game crafting know how it can be a alternative to Final Fantasy. The series has been better managed the last years. I voted 4+ million.

 

[Tokuiten]

Wasn’t the ip born out of Iwata wanting a FF killer? I think with the experience of the team and Nintendo’s game crafting know how it can be a alternative to Final Fantasy. The series has been better managed the last years. I voted 4+ million.

Hm wasn't that the reason for The Last Story to exist? Which unfortunately never got a sequel.

4+ million would be great, but I'm going with a more linear progression and predit 3+ mio. However, I think it'd be a massive disappointment if the series failed to break 3 mio. The difference in userbase is so massive from when 2 released, plus the longer dev time (higher budget) and the exposure of Xenoblade in Smash Bros.. It really feels like the perfect storm for the series' big breakthrough, and Nintendo might demand that.

Either way, I'm excited for Xenoblade 3 from a sales perspective (and from a game perspective, too, ofc), because it really should give us a detailed picture of what this franchise is capable of selling. If Xenoblade 3 releases for Switch 1 and Nintendo doesn't do anything stupid to self-sabotage, there really is nothing this time that'd prevent the game from selling true to its potential. All previous Xenoblade-titles, actually all Xeno-titles really, were hindered in sales by some significant reason. Xenoblade 3 doesn't have any such obstacles, if anything, Corona will give it an additional boost like it did to the entire video game industry. Exciting times (minus Corona, that shit sucks).

 

[ILikeFeet]

if Xenoblade 3 does go full action rpg, I think it has the potential to sell better than 2. however if it's more auto-attack, I think that's gonna limit things

 

[DecoReturns]

if Xenoblade 3 does go full action rpg, I think it has the potential to sell better than 2. however if it's more auto-attack, I think that's gonna limit things

If it goes Full Action. I think it can go far beyond Xenoblade 2.

But I’m still expecting some form of Auto attacking. And this growth will probably happen but it’ll be smaller scale.

 

[Arthoneceron]

I think it will depend on the approach of the game. Due to the evolution of the franchise, I would expect something like 2.5-3M if the game went to a slight more action style. Also, if on Switch on it's late lifecycle, the game could benefit itself if the next console is backward compatible, for like 200k extras.

 

[Tokuiten]

To the 2-3 mio people:

Do you think that Xenoblade 3 basically cannot sell meaningfully more than Xenoblade 2, or is it that you consider, say, 2.8 mio a significant step up from Xenoblade 2's ca. 2.2 mio? Wondering.

 

[ILikeFeet]

To the 2-3 mio people:

Do you think that Xenoblade 3 basically cannot sell meaningfully more than Xenoblade 2, or is it that you consider, say, 2.8 mio a significant step up from Xenoblade 2's ca. 2.2 mio? Wondering.

given this series's aesthetic, there's probably a limit on how high it can go on a single platform. getting to Persona 5 numbers will probably take a good bit of rejiggering the look and whatnot

 

[Uniomni]

That's ok. I'm the opposite, I find predicting based on specific information boring and trivial. Meanwhile as someone who's followed Xenoblade from the first game, I'm very excited to observe and predict its potential as a franchise akin to Final Fantasy, Persona, Dragon Quest or Tales of.

You're free to add your prediction after the reveal, though, if that's what you prefer.

I put down more than 2 million less than 3 sales as a vote but if it wants to rival the series you named above, the art direction needs a severe overhaul.
They channel the baiten kaitos/chrono cross days of art + a novel battle system n they can easily approach 5 million sold.
More overdesigned art + mmo lite systems ala XB1 or the absolute nonsense hud+systems of xb2, 2 million is the adamantium ceiling.

I really hope they go back to the drawing board, as my gut tells me they're talented enough to kick in the door of the next level of sales.

 

[GrndMagus]

I put down more than 2 million less than 3 sales as a vote but if it wants to rival the series you named above, the art direction needs a severe overhaul.
They channel the baiten kaitos/chrono cross days of art + a novel battle system n they can easily approach 5 million sold.
More overdesigned art + mmo lite systems ala XB1 or the absolute nonsense hud+systems of xb2, 2 million is the adamantium ceiling.

I really hope they go back to the drawing board, as my gut tells me they're talented enough to kick in the door of the next level of sales.

This seems to me like a really strange position to take, given that the Baiten Kaitos sold really poorly, and Chrono Cross sold far worse than Xenoblade 2 (despite RPGs and Square being really big at the time, RPGs taking off in the west and becoming a bit of a fad, PS1 being super hot, PS2 being backward compatible, Cross being a sequel to the more popular Trigger, and Cross eventually being price cut to $20.) Xenoblade 2 was able to break out with the art style it has, selling over 2.05 million units as of June 2020, and largely at full price. Can you support that position with any examples?

Most players really do seem to like Xenoblade 2, including its art style. I certainly loved it. I agree that the art style does impose a cap on total sales, especially in the west, but the only way you'd much improve things is going photo-realistic, in my opinion. Changing the battle system to a pure action style, like Zelda, would also provide a huge boost (though I prefer Xenoblade as it is, and don't personally wish for this.)

 

[Arynio]

As excited as I am for this game, I feel like this question arrives a bit too early. We know nothing about the game (at least officially, and even the rumours don't provide much detail beyond the setting). If it's similar to XC2 it could reach 3M (faster than XC2; see below). If it successfully veers towards the ARPG subgenre and streamlines certain systems it could see further growth.

I think it will depend on the approach of the game. Due to the evolution of the franchise, I would expect something like 2.5-3M if the game went to a slight more action style. Also, if on Switch on it's late lifecycle, the game could benefit itself if the next console is backward compatible, for like 200k extras.

To the 2-3 mio people:

Do you think that Xenoblade 3 basically cannot sell meaningfully more than Xenoblade 2, or is it that you consider, say, 2.8 mio a significant step up from Xenoblade 2's ca. 2.2 mio? Wondering.

XC2 was at 2.05M back in June 2020. It's been selling at very decent levels for an extra year and a half since then, and that includes the huge Smash boost. For the last month and a half (a very competitive season btw) it has been consistently charting in the lower part of the JP eShop Top 50.

We can't know for sure, but taking all this into account, from my point of view there is no way the game has only sold 150k WW in the last ~18 months. Probably more like double that. When the 2021 White Paper releases next year we'll hopefully get updated figures as of June 2021, or maybe even December 2021 if we're lucky.

And the game won't stop selling now. As a matter of facts it will probably receive another great boost when the sequel is announced and during the lead-up to its launch. The point I'm trying to make is XC2 will at the very least end up clearing 3M LT sales at some point (I'm saying 'at the very least' because if the Switch becomes an incremental-upgrade platform, who knows for how long its games could be sold digitally), so any growth projection for XC3 should start from here.

TLDR: if we want to talk about growth for XC3, 3M+ is the entry point.

 

[Tokuiten]

This seems to me like a really strange position to take, given that the Baiten Kaitos sold really poorly, and Chrono Cross sold far worse than Xenoblade 2 (despite RPGs and Square being really big at the time, RPGs taking off in the west and becoming a bit of a fad, PS1 being super hot, PS2 being backward compatible, Cross being a sequel to the more popular Trigger, and Cross eventually being price cut to $20.) Xenoblade 2 was able to break out with the art style it has, selling over 2.05 million units as of June 2020, and largely at full price. Can you support that position with any examples?

Most players really do seem to like Xenoblade 2, including its art style. I certainly loved it. I agree that the art style does impose a cap on total sales, especially in the west, but the only way you'd much improve things is going photo-realistic, in my opinion. Changing the battle system to a pure action style, like Zelda, would also provide a huge boost (though I prefer Xenoblade as it is, and don't personally wish for this.)

I agree that any argument along the lines of "Xenoblade 2's artstyle hinders its sales" is a tough one to support with facts/data. The character designs are very likely big part of why Xenoblade 2 became the success it did become, including a very active fanart community even to this day. I realize that some people have personal gripes with some of the character designs (a debate I neither want to start nor does it belong on Install Base), but it's safe to say that most people who played Xenoblade 2 liked the designs.

To claim that the weird artstyle of Baten Kaitos would somehow help sales is especially odd to me, because even though I love Baten Kaitos, its artstyle is not one of its strong points. At least not when talking from a massmarket pov. If one wants to say that Baten Kaitos featured a more unique, distinct artstyle, that'd be true. But that's not what sells as far as my observation goes.

However, I immensely disagree that Xenoblade would benefit from an action-battle system (I assume action-battle means every button input equals an action of the character you control, as opposed to choosing certain techniques/skills). That would easily alienate a large chunk of the existing Xenoblade-fanbase. I'm a huge Xenoblade-fan and never once did I think "it'd be great if combat was more like Zelda" nor have I witnessed some wider demand amongst other fans for this. Action-combat would remove the laid-back nature of Xenoblade's gameplay. Right now, you progress, you grow, and you make sure to choose the best skills during combat. But you can mostly relax, watch your party do their thing, and can even afford to look somewhere else for a moment without dying. Action-combat would fundamentally change Xenoblade and I don't think for the better. I'm not worried, though, because if the rumors are anything to go by, Xenoblade 3 strives to have more characters on screen, and it makes no sense imo to have action-combat AND a larger party. I'd expect the opposite.

I do agree with your TLDR, though. 3 million is the base line to speak of noticeable growth for the Xenoblade-franchise. We could argue at the time whether 2.85 mio are close enough to 3 mio to call it "noticeable growth", but in general, 3 mio is where I'd acknowledge that the franchise broke another "seal" on its way towards becoming a big player in the jrpg-field.

 

[Arthoneceron]

XC2 was at 2.05M back in June 2020. It's been selling at very decent levels for an extra year and a half since then, and that includes the huge Smash boost. For the last month and a half (a very competitive season btw) it has been consistently charting in the lower part of the JP eShop Top 50.

We can't know for sure, but taking all this into account, from my point of view there is no way the game has only sold 150k WW in the last ~18 months. Probably more like double that. When the 2021 White Paper releases next year we'll hopefully get updated figures as of June 2021, or maybe even December 2021 if we're lucky.

And the game won't stop selling now. As a matter of facts it will probably receive another great boost when the sequel is announced and during the lead-up to its launch. The point I'm trying to make is XC2 will at the very least end up clearing 3M LT sales at some point (I'm saying 'at the very least' because if the Switch becomes an incremental-upgrade platform, who knows for how long its games could be sold digitally), so any growth projection for XC3 should start from here.

TLDR: if we want to talk about growth for XC3, 3M+ is the entry point.

I would say Xenoblade isn't a traditional Nintendo game where you can plug & play. In the Nintendo catalogue, Xenoblade is almost an alien - It's a story-oriented exploration-focused JRPG game where you break most of the Nintendo conventions with voice-acting, dark/existential themes, philosophy and even adult-oriented stuff. There's a lot of humour, and some jrpg cliché to break the serious tone of it, but overall is an imaginative series from the beggining till the end. And also pushes the hardware to it's limit - Xeno 1 is a miracle on Wii, and XenoX still need to be beaten on the exploration standard IMO.

These days I could say that yeah, Nintendo has a great IP that can evolve nice and steady, but it's not like the Xeno franchise is the biggest franchise on their catalogue. But it's a game where it's quality surpass it's perceived sales potential. So, I think 3M+ isn't the entry point - It's more like a natural growth than anything else.

Take a look on Fire Emblem, for example - it needed 20 years and the departure of Shouzou Kaga for the series reach it's full sales and popularity potential. Luckly Xeno will take less time than that, and Takahashi will still be around to share his ideas and potential.

 

[GrndMagus]

I agree that any argument along the lines of "Xenoblade 2's artstyle hinders its sales" is a tough one to support with facts/data. The character designs are very likely big part of why Xenoblade 2 became the success it did become, including a very active fanart community even to this day. I realize that some people have personal gripes with some of the character designs (a debate I neither want to start nor does it belong on Install Base), but it's safe to say that most people who played Xenoblade 2 liked the designs.

When he listed "art direction" as a criticism of Xenoblade 2, I kind of wondered whether the poster was naively taking the grumblings of a selection of people from Twitter and the old place, and confusing that for popular opinion, or whether he was concern trolling, especially given he cited unpopular/unsuccessful games as an argument to change the art style of the two million-plus selling Xenoblade 2. I chose to assume the former, out of good will, and for the sake of more productive discussion. Good point on fanart, too. Xenoblade 2, especially, gets a lot of it, and I didn't really make note of that.

However, I immensely disagree that Xenoblade would benefit from an action-battle system (I assume action-battle means every button input equals an action of the character you control, as opposed to choosing certain techniques/skills). That would easily alienate a large chunk of the existing Xenoblade-fanbase. I'm a huge Xenoblade-fan and never once did I think "it'd be great if combat was more like Zelda" nor have I witnessed some wider demand amongst other fans for this.

Yes. Action games are much, much, more popular than turn based games. Look at the breakout of the Fallout series when it switched to action with the third game. Or how Final Fantasy XV sold two million-plus more copies than XIII, in a far shorter time frame, when switching to action. Granted action gameplay wasn't the only reason for the sales increase in those cases, but I'd argue it was the biggest, and many more example exist, besides those two. If switching to action alienates some portion of the fanbase, that probably wouldn't be a problem from a sales perspective, as you would now have the prospect to grow explosively beyond the bubble the Xenoblade fanbase occupies; Zelda sold over twenty-five million, Witcher 3 over thirty, Skyrim probably over fourty by now (mind you, I'm not advocating for this.)

Regarding the topic, if we assume a straight sequel (same console, roughly the same gameplay, similar artstyle), I'm guessing about two million in the first month, maybe a little over three million lifetime. Xenoblade 2 sold 1.06 M in the first month (https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2018/180131_3e.pdf, page 6), and given the game's strong legs, I'm expecting a much better opening. That said, I'm also expecting shorter and stumpier legs.

 

[Uniomni]

This seems to me like a really strange position to take, given that the Baiten Kaitos sold really poorly, and Chrono Cross sold far worse than Xenoblade 2 (despite RPGs and Square being really big at the time, RPGs taking off in the west and becoming a bit of a fad, PS1 being super hot, PS2 being backward compatible, Cross being a sequel to the more popular Trigger, and Cross eventually being price cut to $20.) Xenoblade 2 was able to break out with the art style it has, selling over 2.05 million units as of June 2020, and largely at full price. Can you support that position with any examples?

Most players really do seem to like Xenoblade 2, including its art style. I certainly loved it. I agree that the art style does impose a cap on total sales, especially in the west, but the only way you'd much improve things is going photo-realistic, in my opinion. Changing the battle system to a pure action style, like Zelda, would also provide a huge boost (though I prefer Xenoblade as it is, and don't personally wish for this.)

I just knew someone was going to reference Baiten Kaitos and Cross's sales against Xenoblade and look to rebut it.
My argument rides on the belief that the videogame market has grown markedly since then. Baiten came out for GameCube, which itself was a hugely unpopular system + the battle system was card game based.
I myself had a Gc and Ps2 that generation, and bought both Tales of Symphonia day one, as well as Baiten. Baiten I traded back the same day, as the card based battle system wasn't my thing.
Cross released and sold 1.5 million without Europe seeing a copy. And the market has only grown since then.
Back then, Mario Kart topped out at around 7 million sales, today its basically 5x from there.
Mario platformers are 2-3x from those days, and platformers aren't a booming genre at the moment.
Atlus is selling rpgs that dwarf the returns of the golden age ps1-ps2 Era rpgs, and they look a generation behind in gloss.
If Nintendo could either get MonolithSoft to release a proper medieval jrpg, without the bad habits Xenoblade embody like complex for complexities sake battle systems, and a ground up evocative art design that catches eyes, there's absolutely no reason why the boom that has hit Nintendo's first party in the Switch Era shouldn't be reflected there as well.
As it is, Xenoblade is almost completely anathema to what I and many others expect from a Nintendo first party big release.
Needlessly complex, no "aha gotcha" mechanical moment early on, too busy art design(my goodness the armor and weapon designs look like something I'd see passing tables in a middle school cafeteria), it's just all ick to me, as someone who's been playing games for decades sporadically.
Personally, the most beautiful art of any current gen jrpg I've seen in recent memory, is with the unknown Atlus rpg, Re:fantasy.
They outdo that and get a novel system in place, they can easily push on 5+ millions.

 

[PillFencer]

Seems like many are on board with the idea that XC3 will same in the same range as FF16 in Japan

 

[Uniomni]

When he listed "art direction" as a criticism of Xenoblade 2, I kind of wondered whether the poster was naively taking the grumblings of a selection of people from Twitter and the old place, and confusing that for popular opinion, or whether he was concern trolling, especially given he cited unpopular/unsuccessful games as an argument to change the art style of the two million-plus selling Xenoblade 2. I chose to assume the former, out of good will, and for the sake of more productive discussion. Good point on fanart, too. Xenoblade 2, especially, gets a lot of it, and I didn't really make note of that.


Yes. Action games are much, much, more popular than turn based games. Look at the breakout of the Fallout series when it switched to action with the third game. Or how Final Fantasy XV sold two million-plus more copies than XIII, in a far shorter time frame, when switching to action. Granted action gameplay wasn't the only reason for the sales increase in those cases, but I'd argue it was the biggest, and many more example exist, besides those two. If switching to action alienates some portion of the fanbase, that probably wouldn't be a problem from a sales perspective, as you would now have the prospect to grow explosively beyond the bubble the Xenoblade fanbase occupies; Zelda sold over twenty-five million, Witcher 3 over thirty, Skyrim probably over fourty by now (mind you, I'm not advocating for this.)

Regarding the topic, if we assume a straight sequel (same console, roughly the same gameplay, similar artstyle), I'm guessing about two million in the first month, maybe a little over three million lifetime. Xenoblade 2 sold 1.06 M in the first month (https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2018/180131_3e.pdf, page 6), and given the game's strong legs, I'm expecting a much better opening. That said, I'm also expecting shorter and stumpier legs.

I'm not referencing anything but my own tastes, from playing the games. If my dislike lines up with what others have made known, that's just mutual feedback.
And for the record, only Baiten was unpopular. And I suspect the card based system + unpopular console played a huge part in the reception.
Cross sold well while skipping an entire region, and while the story isn't universally loved, if a remake released tomorrow, I'd put money on it outselling Xenoblade 2.

 

[Tokuiten]

I just knew someone was going to reference Baiten Kaitos and Cross's sales against Xenoblade and look to rebut it.
My argument rides on the belief that the videogame market has grown markedly since then. Baiten came out for GameCube, which itself was a hugely unpopular system + the battle system was card game based.
I myself had a Gc and Ps2 that generation, and bought both Tales of Symphonia day one, as well as Baiten. Baiten I traded back the same day, as the card based battle system wasn't my thing.
Cross released and sold 1.5 million without Europe seeing a copy. And the market has only grown since then.
Back then, Mario Kart topped out at around 7 million sales, today its basically 5x from there.
Mario platformers are 2-3x from those days, and platformers aren't a booming genre at the moment.
Atlus is selling rpgs that dwarf the returns of the golden age ps1-ps2 Era rpgs, and they look a generation behind in gloss.
If Nintendo could either get MonolithSoft to release a proper medieval jrpg, without the bad habits Xenoblade embody like complex for complexities sake battle systems, and a ground up evocative art design that catches eyes, there's absolutely no reason why the boom that has hit Nintendo's first party in the Switch Era shouldn't be reflected there as well.
As it is, Xenoblade is almost completely anathema to what I and many others expect from a Nintendo first party big release.
Needlessly complex, no "aha gotcha" mechanical moment early on, too busy art design(my goodness the armor and weapon designs look like something I'd see passing tables in a middle school cafeteria), it's just all ick to me, as someone who's been playing games for decades sporadically.
Personally, the most beautiful art of any current gen jrpg I've seen in recent memory, is with the unknown Atlus rpg, Re:fantasy.
They outdo that and get a novel system in place, they can easily push on 5+ millions.

1.) Sorry for the nitpicking, but since you repeatedly misspelled it: It's called "Baten Kaitos", not "Baiten Kaitos". Since you appear to like the game, you might want to use its correct name ^^

2.) While the video game market overall has grown, I'd oppose that the market for JRPGs has grown with it. If you take a look at the majority of jrpgs, it's still an incredibly niche genre where 1 million global sales is still considered a big success for most of them. The reason why Persona 5 is being praised as a success is because breaking 3 million is such a unique feat, even in 2021. In other words: monster-collecting jrpgs aside, Final Fantasy is the only true big-selling jrpg in the world. Then comes Tales of, Persona and Dragon Quest. Then you have Xenoblade 2. And then you're reached the true niche with anything below. Imo the market for jrpgs has not grown. It is specific, singular franchises that, depending on their unique quality and word of mouth and timing of release that manage to see breakout-success beyond the usual scope of the genre. I doubt that the old jrpgs you mentioned would sell significantly differently today.

3.) This is the artstyle that's most popular and sells the most:


Xenoblade 2 followed that generic artstyle (but within managed to create many highly memorable character designs) and ended up the best-selling Xeno-game of all times. I strongly think that it is a vocal minority's misconception that Xenoblade 2 in any way suffered from its artstyle/character designs. We're getting close to a topic I do not want to discuss, but if it's in the context of sales, I guess there is no choice: Moe blob-designs sell. Sexy designs sell. It is no coincidence that 99% of all anime that air nowadays have the same or similar artstyle. Something I'm not a fan of personally, too, but it is what it is. These companies wouldn't all go for these artstyles if it went counter to success. I'm an older weeb/anime-fan and I love artstyles like that of "Vision of Escaflowne", you know, back when characters still had noses, lol. But to point at Xenoblade 2's art and use it against future sales prospects just doesn't make sense when all the most popular anime in the world have a similar look. There is no "ick" factor that hinders the Xeno-franchise's sales success.

Also, let me just personally disagree with the "needlessly complex". I consider Xenoblade 2's combat the best, most fun combat I've ever experienced in a jrpg. It has variety, gives a lot of options, lots of strategy, and is super accessible with no menus that you have to go through to execute commands. Then came Torna and dumbed it down so much that it lost all that strategy and options, really disappointed me. I often saw people praise Torna's combat, but imo that praise comes from people that only want to rush a game and proceed to the next one, whereas Takahashi Tetsuya's goal is to create games with a world you want to stay inside, something that a more complex, more interactive combat system supports better with its longevity. In that I don't see it "anathema" to Nintendo, who's games often follow a "easy to learn, hard to master" principle. Xenoblade 2 might be little harder to learn, admittedly, but the pay off is immensely rewarding, something that Torna doesn't have.

Anyway. I don't think it can be supported by facts/data that artstyle nor combat hurt Xenoblade 2's sales.

 

[ReddDreadtheLead]

JP: 200K FW
JP: 450k LTD

WW: 3M

 

[ArkhamFantasy]

Idk, if you made a list of the best selling JRPGs, it would be a giant long list of Pokemon games and all of them are turn based. All the pokemon spin offs that don't have turn based combat don't do nearly as well. Even if you say pokemon doesn't count (lol) then i think it would be FFVII and FFX right after those.

JRPG fans don't really seem to have a preference, the way a game looks and the quality of the game seem like more important factors. Persona and SMT have very similar combat systems and the sales of those two series aren't close anymore.

 

[Adventureracing]

I think it’ll definitely be the best selling entry so far. I think it would have been cool to see the game given a large budget and used as a showpiece title for the switch successor whatever form it took.

 

[Uniomni]

1.) Sorry for the nitpicking, but since you repeatedly misspelled it: It's called "Baten Kaitos", not "Baiten Kaitos". Since you appear to like the game, you might want to use its correct name ^^

2.) While the video game market overall has grown, I'd oppose that the market for JRPGs has grown with it. If you take a look at the majority of jrpgs, it's still an incredibly niche genre where 1 million global sales is still considered a big success for most of them. The reason why Persona 5 is being praised as a success is because breaking 3 million is such a unique feat, even in 2021. In other words: monster-collecting jrpgs aside, Final Fantasy is the only true big-selling jrpg in the world. Then comes Tales of, Persona and Dragon Quest. Then you have Xenoblade 2. And then you're reached the true niche with anything below. Imo the market for jrpgs has not grown. It is specific, singular franchises that, depending on their unique quality and word of mouth and timing of release that manage to see breakout-success beyond the usual scope of the genre. I doubt that the old jrpgs you mentioned would sell significantly differently today.

3.) This is the artstyle that's most popular and sells the most:


Xenoblade 2 followed that generic artstyle (but within managed to create many highly memorable character designs) and ended up the best-selling Xeno-game of all times. I strongly think that it is a vocal minority's misconception that Xenoblade 2 in any way suffered from its artstyle/character designs. We're getting close to a topic I do not want to discuss, but if it's in the context of sales, I guess there is no choice: Moe blob-designs sell. Sexy designs sell. It is no coincidence that 99% of all anime that air nowadays have the same or similar artstyle. Something I'm not a fan of personally, too, but it is what it is. These companies wouldn't all go for these artstyles if it went counter to success. I'm an older weeb/anime-fan and I love artstyles like that of "Vision of Escaflowne", you know, back when characters still had noses, lol. But to point at Xenoblade 2's art and use it against future sales prospects just doesn't make sense when all the most popular anime in the world have a similar look. There is no "ick" factor that hinders the Xeno-franchise's sales success.

Also, let me just personally disagree with the "needlessly complex". I consider Xenoblade 2's combat the best, most fun combat I've ever experienced in a jrpg. It has variety, gives a lot of options, lots of strategy, and is super accessible with no menus that you have to go through to execute commands. Then came Torna and dumbed it down so much that it lost all that strategy and options, really disappointed me. I often saw people praise Torna's combat, but imo that praise comes from people that only want to rush a game and proceed to the next one, whereas Takahashi Tetsuya's goal is to create games with a world you want to stay inside, something that a more complex, more interactive combat system supports better with its longevity. In that I don't see it "anathema" to Nintendo, who's games often follow a "easy to learn, hard to master" principle. Xenoblade 2 might be little harder to learn, admittedly, but the pay off is immensely rewarding, something that Torna doesn't have.

Anyway. I don't think it can be supported by facts/data that artstyle nor combat hurt Xenoblade 2's sales.

Firstly, thanks for correcting me. That's a game I haven't thought about in decades tbh, I owned it for mere hours before trading it in.
I always did think the art style was beautiful though.

Tbh, I'd expect a Nintendo tentpole jrpg series to easily upset the cart in regard to market expectations vs performance. Especially in a generation where the phrase Switch boost is a thing.

As for the artstyle thing, I always maintained that it was to my tastes that Xenoblade stylistic choices were off-putting.
I just gather I'm not alone in my disenchantment with anime trends.
My time with Xenoblade DE where I kept grinding to get the best armor and weapons early on(before Gaur Plains and that silly robot attack) and it just was all bad to my eyes.

If you like the systems in play, more power to you. They terrified me though, and I imagine for other lapsed players it's similar.

I admit that I might be wrong about where the series needs to go.
I just know that as a lifelong Nintendo fan, I've been disappointed with the finished product so far. Both in look and play.
For those who love it, may you have all the more of it.

To reiterate the point of this thread, if it remains as is, 2-3 million is my predicted height.
I just hope it one day becomes more, in both production and market response.

 

[Aleh]

4m+ guaranteed
Userbase is HUGE and Xenoblade is actually known as a series now, also thanks to Smash on top of XC2

 

[ComradeYurika]

I see it clearing 3 million for sure.

Japan Sales FW: 230k
Japan Sales LTD: 690k
Worldwide LTD: 3,300,000

 

[ika]

Japan Sales FW: 260K
Japan Sales LTD: 530K
Worldwide LTD: 2.8M

 

[GrndMagus]

My argument rides on the belief that the videogame market has grown markedly since then. Baiten came out for GameCube, which itself was a hugely unpopular system + the battle system was card game based.
I myself had a Gc and Ps2 that generation, and bought both Tales of Symphonia day one, as well as Baiten. Baiten I traded back the same day, as the card based battle system wasn't my thing.
Cross released and sold 1.5 million without Europe seeing a copy. And the market has only grown since then.

The market has grown in general, but turn-based RPGs sell only marginally better now than they did back then; most of the growth in the market has gone to FPS games, open-world action RPGs, cinematic-style third-person shooters, etc. Infamously, the category-leading Final Fantasy series sells worse now than it did then (9.8M across PS4, XBO, and Windows for XV and 7.8M across PS3, 360, and Windows for XIII, versus 10.02M for Final Fantasy VII, and 8.6M for VIII, both on PS1 alone. And Tales sells only marginally higher than it did in the aughts, despite far more SKUs.

Back then, Mario Kart topped out at around 7 million sales, today its basically 5x from there.
Mario platformers are 2-3x from those days, and platformers aren't a booming genre at the moment.
Atlus is selling rpgs that dwarf the returns of the golden age ps1-ps2 Era rpgs, and they look a generation behind in gloss.

Mario got stuck in a sand trap during the transition from 2D to 3D. 3D games were less broadly appealing than 2D games, as evidenced by the huge rebound once Miyamoto relented, and Nintendo started making new 2D Mario games again (Mario 64 sold 11.91M units, Sunshine did 5.91. Odyssey has done far better, selling over 22M, but that's not only due to Switch, but also thanks to a new generation of kids who've grown up on 3D games, especially Minecraft. For comparison, NSMB sold 30.80M units, and NSMB Wii sold 30.32M. Even NSMB2 sold about 550k more units than M3DL, despite releasing nine months later than it, and generally being a bit low effort. Mario is a far more famous brand, and platformers and kart racers are more broadly appealing, giving these series more room to grow. As for Atlus, let's not exaggerate; they are selling one RPG (Persona 5) that dwarfs the returns of many-but-not-all golden-age RPGs (PKMN, FF, and DQ were well ahead), and some other niche things besides.

If Nintendo could either get MonolithSoft to release a proper medieval jrpg, without the bad habits Xenoblade embody like complex for complexities sake battle systems, and a ground up evocative art design that catches eyes, there's absolutely no reason why the boom that has hit Nintendo's first party in the Switch Era shouldn't be reflected there as well.
As it is, Xenoblade is almost completely anathema to what I and many others expect from a Nintendo first party big release.
Needlessly complex, no "aha gotcha" mechanical moment early on, too busy art design(my goodness the armor and weapon designs look like something I'd see passing tables in a middle school cafeteria), it's just all ick to me, as someone who's been playing games for decades sporadically.

The point of Xenoblade is to inject a little diversity into Nintendo's first-party catalogue, so that everything isn't a cutesy platformer. Games with large worlds, deep characters, engaging stories, deeper battle systems. Nintendo believes in leading by example, so acquiring Monolith Soft, teaching them to make games The Nintendo Way™, and then putting them to work on their systems has helped to make Nintendo consoles into destinations for fans of Japanese RPGs.

Personally, the most beautiful art of any current gen jrpg I've seen in recent memory, is with the unknown Atlus rpg, Re:fantasy.
They outdo that and get a novel system in place, they can easily push on 5+ millions.

Beauty is subjective; I love 2's art style and designs. Also, Re:fantasy is far from release, so we can't say what it'll sell, much less how its art will contribute (or not) to its sales. And no JRPG is ever selling over five million, unless its name is Pocket Monsters, Final Fantasy, or Dragon Quest. If they really want 5+ million from Xenoblade, they'll target photo-realism, and make it an open-world action RPG.

 

[rAndom]

It's hard to predict when we don't know what the game looks like or when it will appear. But I will predict based on the following assumptions:

- design looks closer to XC2
- gameplay is also closer to XC2
- releases next year on an advantageous schedule, like near holidays
- themes focus on the classic Xenoblade
- gets really good marketing, better than the previous game.

I'd say 3M worldwide minimum, with 500k in Japan is achievable. XC2 has a really surprising legs and has an enduring popularity, so all Monolithsoft have to do is ride the momentum and do what they do best for the next entry.

 

[Hidden04]

Idk, but I think fanart will carry 3 higher than 2 tbh. I also think it might release in the summer instead of the holiday, as releasing close to BOTW 2 would be bad.

 

[Uniomni]

The market has grown in general, but turn-based RPGs sell only marginally better now than they did back then; most of the growth in the market has gone to FPS games, open-world action RPGs, cinematic-style third-person shooters, etc. Infamously, the category-leading Final Fantasy series sells worse now than it did then (9.8M across PS4, XBO, and Windows for XV and 7.8M across PS3, 360, and Windows for XIII, versus 10.02M for Final Fantasy VII, and 8.6M for VIII, both on PS1 alone. And Tales sells only marginally higher than it did in the aughts, despite far more SKUs.


Mario got stuck in a sand trap during the transition from 2D to 3D. 3D games were less broadly appealing than 2D games, as evidenced by the huge rebound once Miyamoto relented, and Nintendo started making new 2D Mario games again (Mario 64 sold 11.91M units, Sunshine did 5.91. Odyssey has done far better, selling over 22M, but that's not only due to Switch, but also thanks to a new generation of kids who've grown up on 3D games, especially Minecraft. For comparison, NSMB sold 30.80M units, and NSMB Wii sold 30.32M. Even NSMB2 sold about 550k more units than M3DL, despite releasing nine months later than it, and generally being a bit low effort. Mario is a far more famous brand, and platformers and kart racers are more broadly appealing, giving these series more room to grow. As for Atlus, let's not exaggerate; they are selling one RPG (Persona 5) that dwarfs the returns of many-but-not-all golden-age RPGs (PKMN, FF, and DQ were well ahead), and some other niche things besides.


The point of Xenoblade is to inject a little diversity into Nintendo's first-party catalogue, so that everything isn't a cutesy platformer. Games with large worlds, deep characters, engaging stories, deeper battle systems. Nintendo believes in leading by example, so acquiring Monolith Soft, teaching them to make games The Nintendo Way™, and then putting them to work on their systems has helped to make Nintendo consoles into destinations for fans of Japanese RPGs.


Beauty is subjective; I love 2's art style and designs. Also, Re:fantasy is far from release, so we can't say what it'll sell, much less how its art will contribute (or not) to its sales. And no JRPG is ever selling over five million, unless its name is Pocket Monsters, Final Fantasy, or Dragon Quest. If they really want 5+ million from Xenoblade, they'll target photo-realism, and make it an open-world action RPG.

My point about Xenoblade being anathema to what most expect from a big Nintendo release is more so the lack of a novel hook that permeates the game, that will get twisted and turned upside down as the game progresses.
Skyward Sword = motion controls to win.
Mario Galaxy = Gravity breaking + waggle to win.
Botw = Play your way, and use your imagination to break the game.
Odyssey = Use the hat to break the map/stage.
Splatoon = 3rd person shooter but with the Nintendo twist via novel mechanics.
Xenoblade = Overdone story and superbusy art + super dense mechanical battle system?
That's nothing new to jrpgs. Where's the Nintendo twist is my point?
A jrpg with a novel twist I'd expect from Nintendo would be something like Radiant Historia(time travel mechanic) or Radiata Stories(kick to recruit almost anyone mechanic).
That's what I meant in regards to with a Nintendo twist.

And I definitely wouldn't think a Nintendo jrpg would be capped at 5 million.
FE3H probably would've sold a bit more if the game wasn't so flat out ugly. Probably not 5 million but at least another couple hundred thousand.

The real problem with jrpgs feels like the same attitude that says 5 million is the ceiling, is the one holding them back.
Selling to the same base without branching past them is a recipe for stagnation.
People famously don't know what they want until it's shown to them.

I'll drop it now though.

 

[Glio]

My point about Xenoblade being anathema to what most expect from a big Nintendo release is more so the lack of a novel hook that permeates the game, that will get twisted and turned upside down as the game progresses.
Skyward Sword = motion controls to win.
Mario Galaxy = Gravity breaking + waggle to win.
Botw = Play your way, and use your imagination to break the game.
Odyssey = Use the hat to break the map/stage.
Splatoon = 3rd person shooter but with the Nintendo twist via novel mechanics.
Xenoblade = Overdone story and superbusy art + super dense mechanical battle system?
That's nothing new to jrpgs. Where's the Nintendo twist is my point?
A jrpg with a novel twist I'd expect from Nintendo would be something like Radiant Historia(time travel mechanic) or Radiata Stories(kick to recruit almost anyone mechanic).
That's what I meant in regards to with a Nintendo twist.

And I definitely wouldn't think a Nintendo jrpg would be capped at 5 million.
FE3H probably would've sold a bit more if the game wasn't so flat out ugly. Probably not 5 million but at least another couple hundred thousand.

The real problem with jrpgs feels like the same attitude that says 5 million is the ceiling, is the one holding them back.
Selling to the same base without branching past them is a recipe for stagnation.
People famously don't know what they want until it's shown to them.

I'll drop it now though.

If I remember correctly, Xenoblade 1 was revolutionary at the time for its open world approach to a JRPG.

 

[Astral_lion02]

Japan Sales FW: 130k
Japan Sales LTD: 560k
Worldwide LTD: 3,100,000

(FW include only physical sales, LTD include digital)

 

[roseandcigaret]

I suspect it will perform similarly to Xenoblade Chronicles 2 unless it's a drastically different type of game. Bear in mind that Xeno 2 was an early Switch game (holidays 2017 I believe) so that probably actually aided it a bit because there was less software competition at the time

I would guess 2 or 3 million although if the setting is interesting or the style a bit different maybe it could surprise and do better. Xenoblade CHronicles 2 has that heavily JRPG anime style which typically seems to create a ceiling on the audience