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Xbox Business Update Podcast: Phil Spencer, Sarah Bond, Matt Booty (3PM EST, 12PM PST, 8PM GMT)

Not sure how Xbox is supposed to sell hardware for the rest of this gen.
 
Sort of mixed messaging from Phil Spencer, he both wanted to downplay the amount of Microsoft games that will come to other platforms but he also stated ''The number of console exclusive games in the industry will decline considerably in the coming 5-10 years'', that can only mean that Microsoft will end up releasing much more than just 4 games to other platforms in the end. I think the mixed messaging is just a tactic to drip feed ports to other consoles over a longer period of time which will lessen the blow for Xbox diehard fans.
 
I'm glad I mostly ignored the rumors and doom posting of the last weeks.
My current impression of Xbox basically hasn't changed from 4 weeks ago.

The most interesting part was the announcing new hardware (news) for the holiday season.
I want to upgrade my Series S but at this point I'll wait for the Refresh/Pro X.
 
About what I expected to be honest.

If we're reading the extremely PR speak from Phil and co...
We can infer from the way they talked about the 4 games that are over a year old and the non-committal answer to the Starfield/Indy question to mean that this is some sort of 1-2 years exclusivity window kind of how PS talks about how PC ports of Premium Single Player games are not coming Day and Date to PC(yet).

So Starfield is coming, just a date after September 2024(Starfield released in September 2023).
They're just not saying it outright.
 
That’s why that line stood out to me. They barely did anything with this generation and they’re bragging about technical advancements for the next. Especially with how the Series flatlined.
That's what excites core audiences, who are the type of people who would watch things like this, so that's what they advertise here. The problem is, they have to be aware that it's just unsustainable, as with their comments in the same video about the current issue with growth in the industry. Even if the Series was doing better, just doing the same thing with hardware as now wouldn't mean growth, as we have seen with PS in recent days.
 
I'm glad I mostly ignored the rumors and doom posting of the last weeks.
My current impression of Xbox basically hasn't changed from 4 weeks ago.

The most interesting part was the announcing new hardware (news) for the holiday season.
I want to upgrade my Series S but at this point I'll wait for the Refresh/Pro X.

It's not coming until 2028, we saw their entire hardware schedule.

It's also going to be really hard for Microsoft to have a big leap without hitting the $700 to $800 range. 5nm, 3nm, and 2nm just suck. Obviously AMD and Microsoft's ray tracing and upscaling and TAA stuff with machine learning will be a lot better for the next Xbox, but it's going to be hard to push the actual specs much further without absurd prices.
 
MS and unclear messaging, name a better combo

somehow if feels they crafted a message that makes no one happy. kinda impressive

4 games are going multiplat, won't say which. stupid as fuck. just say them
new hardware, expected. all Path Tracing, all the time, I'm expecting
possible handheld? lawl. this is just gonna be xbox branded handheld PCs. maybe with 3nm, they can fit a series S into tablets for $600-$700

a week of hoopla for...this. aight
 
Feels like they are still fighting internally but for now sensible heads prevailed. I do think Switch 2 is a big hanging threat to them and they are preparing to support that.
 
Cloud integration, AI upscaling, and hopefully a ARM CPU base have me pretty excited about next gen as a hardware lover. Too early to say much really. Cloud integration is one of those buzzwords that never seems to really play out. But maybe this time.

I think dedicated AI upscaling chips are going to be a total given next gen, and could in theory allow a lot of punching above weight. Like people are talkng about with Switch 2. I think even the PS5 Pro is said to have one, thats years from proper next gen. That should be exciting no matter who you are.
 
The issue is: Why wait a week for this message? This should have been said 1-2 days after the disastrous rumours were spread.
These kinds of talks are usually planned out weeks in advance. They wanted to make sure that they keep the stories straight and don't promise something they aren't keeping in the long run. They also wanted to make it clear that they are still in the console business. A simple statement could have worked but, there would be conspiracies that invent narratives about what they aren't saying. A show like this leaves far less room to do that.
 
So we know the strategy now.

- Any games that are no longer selling on Xbox will get ported if Xbox wants the franchise to grow.
- GAAS games will get ported to grow continued dev support and MAU.

This is like all of their games.
 
Sort of mixed messaging from Phil Spencer, he both wanted to downplay the amount of Microsoft games that will come to other platforms but he also stated ''The number of console exclusive games in the industry will decline considerably in the coming years'', that can only mean that Microsoft will end up releasing much more than just 4 games to other platforms in the end. I think the mixed messaging is just a tactic to drip feed ports to other consoles over a longer period of time which will lessen the blow for Xbox diehard fans.
The whole podcast just looks like a huge damage control trying to get Xbox fans to accept that games will start to be ported on Playstation and Nintendo.

They are very unclear about what's the real futur of Xbox and I don't like it.
 
The issue is: Why wait a week for this message? This should have been said 1-2 days after the disastrous rumours were spread.
They waited because they wanted to get their PR straight in response to the rumours which does take time. Panicking kinda gets no one anywhere especially if you have to revisit said rumours for another response.
 
So we know the strategy now.

- Any games that are no longer selling on Xbox will get ported if Xbox wants the franchise to grow.
- GAAS games will get ported to grow continued dev support and MAU.
Did he mention something about atleast a year?
 
Sounds like the doomers popped their "Microsoft is leaving the console industry" champagne a bit too prematurely.

Games that "make sense" (service games, niche games) are coming to other consoles (Hi-Fi, Grounded, Pentiment, SoT).
New hardware information later this year (refresh?).
Biggest leap next-gen console (whatever that means) -> big commitment to hardware.
All games are coming day one to Gamepass, Gamepass stays fully intact -> sounds like it's still profitable ;)
Big headliner games staying console exclusive.

To me it was a very clear podcast, nothing really vague about it.
 
Reading between the lines of what Spencer said i think Xbox is moving more towards timed exclusivity, i think they are open to port a lot of Xbox games after a certain timed exclusivity period in the coming years. Maybe 1 year or more exclusive releases before they are open to releasing those games to other platforms.
 
Sounds like the doomers popped their "Microsoft is leaving the console industry" champagne a bit too prematurely.

Games that "make sense" (service games, niche games) are coming to other consoles (Hi-Fi, Grounded, Pentiment, SoT).
New hardware information later this year (refresh?).
Biggest leap next-gen console (whatever that means) -> big commitment to hardware.
All games are coming day one to Gamepass, Gamepass stays fully intact -> sounds like it's still profitable ;)
Big headliner games staying console exclusive.

To me it was a very clear podcast, nothing really vague about it.

Why does Sea of Thieves on PS5 make more sense than Halo Infinite on PS5?

Why does Hi-Fi Rush on PS5 make more sense than Hellblade 2 (another hyper niche game without a physical release that isn't full price) on PS5?
 
Series X was pretty ambitious hardware and arguably more powerful than PS5 (even if we havent seen it a lot, a bit more lately on ue5 games etc).

I think the X in particular was great hardware that delivers huge value at the price point. A 8 core 16 thread (!) Zen CPU, SSD, and 12 TF GPU. You couldn't buy an equivalent Pc anywhere near $500 at launch (may still not be able to three yrs in, of course, we know theyre subsidizing it). "biggest graphical leap" is undefinable anyway, but do you have a link to that statement?

The SSD revolution alone paid off any lofty claims about this gen IMO. Of course it was a product of the times and not a revolutionary engineering feat.



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I mean, that's definitely not happening what else do you need? Almost nothing changes in fact. But they specifically mentioned, again, that they're doing next gen hardware.

Anyways good write up from the verge on the very miniscule hardware tidbits



I think here they mean integrating cloud and AI specifically. Exciting stuff, but we'll have to see what it ends up looking like in practice.

"exciting stuff comin out in hardware" "sharing this holiday" has to be the adorable all digital right? Way too early/doesnt make sense to unveil next gen.

If PS5 Pro is still coming out (I'm unconvinced) that will certainly nip it though, to already start talking about a much much more powerful next gen console, why would anyone invest in PS5 Pro?



I've been thinking the time is right for Sony/MX to revisit a dedicated handheld. There isn't much there to this statement though. And on windows, they are really lagging. Steam Deck has gained a niche precisely because Windows doesnt have a decent handheld or tablet mode and despite all MS resources, the fact they've made zero progress in that direction is very damming imo. They love to talk but seem incapable of doing much about that.

I could care less about this since no game they released so far felt like they took advantage of these things. This entire generation felt like a .5 to the PS4 Pro generation. They even went back on their promised that 60fps would become the new standard.
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If we're reading the extremely PR speak from Phil and co...
We can infer from the way they talked about the 4 games that are over a year old and the non-committal answer to the Starfield/Indy question to mean that this is some sort of 1-2 years exclusivity window kind of how PS talks about how PC ports of Premium Single Player games are not coming Day and Date to PC(yet).

So Starfield is coming, just a date after September 2024(Starfield released in September 2023).
They're just not saying it outright.

People forget, the rumored Starfield rumor was for after the DLC comes out. So naturally, it wouldn't come out this year. Indiana is more iffy since the rumor was a few months after the Xbox launch while Phil was talking about the 'now'.
 
Plenty of speculation still left in the air but it was expected. Curious that the first four titles weren't outright mentioned but at this point, it seems to be given what those games are.

All in all, nothing surprising was said and I fail to see why this needed a 20-minute podcast.
 
Why does Sea of Thieves on PS5 make more sense than Halo Infinite on PS5?
Halo is a "big headliner game". Though I agree that at least the multiplayer would make sense to port, but might be too much of a pain in the ass with the engine.
Why does Hi-Fi Rush on PS5 make more sense than Hellblade 2 (another hyper niche game without a physical release that isn't full price) on PS5?
Hellblade 2 is not "hyper niche", Hellblade 1 sold several million units.
 
Sounds like the doomers popped their "Microsoft is leaving the console industry" champagne a bit too prematurely.

Games that "make sense" (service games, niche games) are coming to other consoles (Hi-Fi, Grounded, Pentiment, SoT).
New hardware information later this year (refresh?).
Biggest leap next-gen console (whatever that means) -> big commitment to hardware.
All games are coming day one to Gamepass, Gamepass stays fully intact -> sounds like it's still profitable ;)
Big headliner games staying console exclusive.

To me it was a very clear podcast, nothing really vague about it.
The Verge article from Tom Warren stated that Gears, Flight Simulator, and Doom have been considered for other platforms, so I don't think it stops with smaller titles and live-service games.
 
The whole podcast just looks like a huge damage control trying to get Xbox fans to accept that games will start to be ported on Playstation and Nintendo.

They are very unclear about what's the real futur of Xbox and I don't like it.
But fair play to Spencer, looking at what people here and on twitter are writing it seems he have managed to calm every Xbox fan, with most of them seeming to think nothing is changing and just 4 games will be released. But everyone in the industry seems to think its just a tactic from Spencer and Xbox will release much more than just 4 games to other platforms in the end, but drip feeding those releases over a long period of time will just be much easier than stating it openly at the beginning.
 
It includes Core. There wouldn't be a big jump from 25M to 34M without that happening.

Well I'm not entirely sure. Would the figure have risen by such a small margin if it was? I don't know the exact stats.

Sony was estimating 29 million console and ultimate in November 2022 per CMA filings:

"Game Pass leads PlayStation Plus significantly," Sony says. "Microsoft already has a substantial lead in multi-game subscription services. Game Pass has 29 million subscribers to Xbox Game Pass Console and Xbox Game Pass Ultimate, and is expected to grow substantially in the future. The multi-game subscription tiers of PlayStation Plus considerably lag with fewer than [redacted] the number of subscribers."

And then around or slightly before core got rolled in in 2023, we got a LinkedIn profile claiming 30 million, followed by an immediate removal of the post.


Neither of these are anything like ironclad data points due to uncertainties, but it doesn't seem facially implausible that it could have 34 million right now based on this all being a bit fuzzy and millions of consoles sold since the 2022 January milestone (and possibly being higher than 25 at that time, just being announced as a round number).
 
Hellblade 1 sold several million copies*

*At a release MSRP of $30 and after being released on 8000 different systems and being discounted down to $5 and $10 many timesj

"Hellblade 2 is not niche, which is why we're not doing a physical release and we don't think we can sell this game at full price."
 
One thing for sure: Microsoft definitely has not stopped overpromising and underdelivering. The "ultra powerful next-gen" promise 4 years before its launch is gonna become the next gaming meme.

Imagine Nintendo announcing a "ultra powerful next gen Switch" in 2020.
 
The Verge article from Tom Warren stated that Gears, Flight Simulator, and Doom have been considered for other platforms, so I don't think it stops with smaller titles and live-service games.
Spencer even states in his interview with Tom Warren that these 4 releases are just their test run to gauge the level of demand of Xbox games on other platforms, if they get the sales they want out of these 4 releases than naturally more and bigger titles will also be ported over.

So the best hope for Xbox fans is that these releases bomb when they come to PS5 and Switch, because that could lessen the chance that they port over more games.
 
MS and unclear messaging, name a better combo

somehow if feels they crafted a message that makes no one happy. kinda impressive

4 games are going multiplat, won't say which. stupid as fuck. just say them
new hardware, expected. all Path Tracing, all the time, I'm expecting
possible handheld? lawl. this is just gonna be xbox branded handheld PCs. maybe with 3nm, they can fit a series S into tablets for $600-$700

a week of hoopla for...this. aight

Their core base is happy because they have a) Day 1 GamePass is still a thing, b) new powerful consoles for next generation, c) Starfield wasn't announced as going to the PS5, and d) ABK games are coming to GamePass.

But yeah, this entire podcast could have been a newsletter last week. However, Phil is lying through his teeth saying that this isn't a change.
 
Well I'm not entirely sure. Would the figure have risen by such a small margin if it was? I don't know the exact stats.

Sony was estimating 29 million console and ultimate in November 2022 per CMA filings:

"Game Pass leads PlayStation Plus significantly," Sony says. "Microsoft already has a substantial lead in multi-game subscription services. Game Pass has 29 million subscribers to Xbox Game Pass Console and Xbox Game Pass Ultimate, and is expected to grow substantially in the future. The multi-game subscription tiers of PlayStation Plus considerably lag with fewer than [redacted] the number of subscribers."

And then around or slightly before core got rolled in in 2023, we got a LinkedIn profile claiming 30 million, followed by an immediate removal of the post.


Neither of these are anything like ironclad data points due to uncertainties, but it doesn't seem facially implausible that it could have 34 million right now based on this all being a bit fuzzy and millions of consoles sold since the 2022 January milestone (and possibly being higher than 25 at that time, just being announced as a round number).
I would just say that they wouldn't give out the smaller number when an even larger number exists for a service they only want positive PR on.
 
I could care less about this since no game they released so far felt like they took advantage of these things. This entire generation felt like a .5 to the PS4 Pro generation. They even went back on their promised that 60fps would become the new standard.

That was always fake news, devs will always go for fidelity over performance if they have to pick one or the other(and they often do because consoles are inherently about compromises).

One thing for sure: Microsoft definitely has not stopped overpromising and underdelivering. The "ultra powerful next-gen" promise 4 years before its launch is gonna become the next gaming meme.

Imagine Nintendo announcing a "ultra powerful next gen Switch" in 2020.

That just means that AMD will finally have hardware that is actually capable of RT at an acceptable level.
Basically next gen console will join the current very high end PCs that can manage Path Tracing or almost the whole suite of RT.

Which I feel like is pretty expected?
The only reason why this wasn't the case this gen is because RDNA2 just can't cut it without tanking the resolution and/or FPS.
 
That just means that AMD will finally have hardware that is actually capable of RT at an acceptable level.
Basically next gen console will join the current very high end PCs that can manage Path Tracing or almost the whole suite of RT.

Which I feel like is pretty expected?
The only reason why this wasn't the case this gen is because RDNA2 just can't cut it without tanking the resolution and/or FPS.

Maybe AMD will be only 3 years behind Nvidia instead of 5 years.
 
Halo is a "big headliner game". Though I agree that at least the multiplayer would make sense to port, but might be too much of a pain in the ass with the engine.

Hellblade 2 is not "hyper niche", Hellblade 1 sold several million units.

Where are you getting that several million? This is the last sales report on Hellblade:


Do you mean this:


Because this is players, not units sold.
 
But fair play to Spencer, looking at what people here and on twitter are writing it seems he have managed to calm every Xbox fan, with most of them seeming to think nothing is changing and just 4 games will be released. But everyone in the industry seems to think its just a tactic from Spencer and Xbox will release much more than just 4 games to other platforms in the end, but drip feeding those releases over a long period of time will just be much easier than stating it openly at the beginning.
Yup. This gives some mild 2016 vibes: Phil Spencer says not every Xbox game will come to PC

He specifically said that they have yet to make a final decision, but yeah, who knows what will happen in the future.
Wonder if the team at Xbox knows it either.
 
That was always fake news, devs will always go for fidelity over performance if they have to pick one or the other(and they often do because consoles are inherently about compromises).



That just means that AMD will finally have hardware that is actually capable of RT at an acceptable level.
Basically next gen console will join the current very high end PCs that can manage Path Tracing or almost the whole suite of RT.

Which I feel like is pretty expected?
The only reason why this wasn't the case this gen is because RDNA2 just can't cut it without tanking the resolution and/or FPS.

I know it was. I have been hearing "60fps standard" since the 360 days so I knew it was BS. But the fact that MS pushed this during the Series should be called out since ignoring third-parties, they don't even do this for their first-parties games like Nintendo.
 
Yup. This gives some mild 2016 vibes: Phil Spencer says not every Xbox game will come to PC


Wonder if the team at Xbox knows it either.
And in the end what he stated in the presentation was that they want to release these games on other platforms to grow their revenue streams, releasing Hi-Fi Rush on PS5 will not grow Microsoft revenue, but releasing games like Starfield and Indiana Jones on PS5 after an Xbox/PC exclusivity period certainly will. These 4 first game releases are just chosen as an easy test run for what they really want to do in the future.
 
Nothing is of the table now. They are not going to confirm Starfield if its not being ported soon. They didn't even name 4 games that are confirmed to come to other platforms. This is historic day, Microsoft will release XBOX "console exclusive" games on Playstation and Nintendo.
 
But fair play to Spencer, looking at what people here and on twitter are writing it seems he have managed to calm every Xbox fan, with most of them seeming to think nothing is changing and just 4 games will be released. But everyone in the industry seems to think its just a tactic from Spencer and Xbox will release much more than just 4 games to other platforms in the end, but drip feeding those releases over a long period of time will just be much easier than stating it openly at the beginning.

That is because Xbox fans on the internet almost blindly believes everything that comes out of Phil's mouth. They're also ignorance that Starfield getting a PS5 released was rumored after the Shattered Space DLC, so the soonish it will release is next year. They're sure in hell aren't going to announced that in February.
 
More of an opinion, but it's one I find interesting:


Matt Booty's comment of "today, big games like a Roblox or a Fortnite can actually be bigger than any one platform, and that really has changed the way we think about things" was a key point that's getting glossed over and shouldn't be.

The black hole games of Fortnite, Minecraft, Roblox, GTA and Call of Duty (and some others) are pulling in more players and more player time and every new game has to fight for air.

It's a public recognition from the folks at Xbox that the big games like Roblox or Fortnite are not just played on Xbox or PlayStation or whatever, but that they're also competitors to the platforms themselves.
 
Hellblade 1 sold several million copies*

*At a release MSRP of $30 and after being released on 8000 different systems and being discounted down to $5 and $10 many timesj

"Hellblade 2 is not niche, which is why we're not doing a physical release and we don't think we can sell this game at full price."

I'm almost certain Hellblade 1 reached at best 2 million sold since that one million update from 2018 was never updated from what I've seen.
 
I would just say that they wouldn't give out the smaller number when an even larger number exists for a service they only want positive PR on.
They're giving out the number who get to play Diablo IV. That could be headed to Core too for sure but we don't really know yet.

I feel like it could go either way.
 
I'm pretty fresh from finishing it and this is what I think:

Xbox wants to be another Steam. It will launch its games first on their platform (Xbox and Windows) and then grow from there. They say it's four games now, but let's be honest, those other big games will come eventually. Based on what Sarah Bond said, they view every screen as an Xbox and--the Xbox hardware is not the core of the business anymore--the Xbox "platform" is the core now. I mean that was already the strategy, but they made that clear now. In addition, it sounds like they want their hardware to be the best place to play a game in general, like how Steam strives to be the best platform for PC with its user experience. Obviously they are not going to be Steam 2.0, but it seems like to me they are taking some of that spirit with favoring its platform, but not being beholden to it. Thus, Xbox will have its services and games available on other platforms where it makes sense.

It’ll be interesting to see how this strategy will go. I wish them the best and this could potentially be a good long term strategy. But they are definitely shifting to being a hybrid first/third party. We are entering a new era for gaming and we'll see who turns out to be the winners and losers in 10 years.
 
This is some surely one of the cluster fuck podcast. So much mixed messaging. And waiting for a whole week


So we know the strategy now.


When Starfield stops selling on Xbox, it'll get ported

It already did. You can bet port is happening.

The whole podcast just looks like a huge damage control trying to get Xbox fans to accept that games will start to be ported on Playstation and Nintendo.

They are very unclear about what's the real futur of Xbox and I don't like it.

Considered... and decided against? We'll see what happens in the future.


Reading between the lines of what Spencer said i think Xbox is moving more towards timed exclusivity, i think they are open to port a lot of Xbox games after a certain timed exclusivity period in the coming years. Maybe 1 year or more exclusive releases before they are open to releasing those games to other platforms.

The Verge article from Tom Warren stated that Gears, Flight Simulator, and Doom have been considered for other platforms, so I don't think it stops with smaller titles and live-service games.

He specifically said that they have yet to make a final decision, but yeah, who knows what will happen in the future.


Looks like we are back to square one

Tom Warren: Microsoft was previously weighing bringing Gears, Flight Sim, and the next Doom to rival platforms. Final decision has not made yet​





Spencer on ruling out Starfield/Indiana Jones exclusivity: “I don't think we should as an industry ever rule out a game going to any other platform”​



You mentioned that Starfield and Indiana Jones aren't part of the four despite rumors, but will those ever come to PS5? Can you rule that out?
I don't think we should as an industry ever rule out a game going to any other platform. We're focused on these four games and learning from the experience.
But I don't want to create a false expectation on those other platforms that this is somehow the first four to get over the dam and then the dam's going to open and that everything else is coming, that's not the plan today. I also don't want to mislead customers on those other platforms. We're launching these four games, and we're excited about it. We're excited about the announce and everything else, but we'll see what happens for our business.
 
More of an opinion, but it's one I find interesting:


As always, Mat Piscatella gives a lot of welcome news that's wonderful to have info on but it's very US-based. Xbox is very US-oriented so also say the same but this time only make it look positive for themselves. What Mat Piscatella is saying isn't really the case in EU and Asia.
 
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