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Square Enix recently had a livestream titled: "SYMBIOGENESIS AWARD 一章 SEASON1" on February 28, 2024. They handed out awards to players and started clapping. Two things of relevance, they announced they were moving to "Layer 2" which is something that is supposed to "significantly reduce gas fees". I don't know when the move happens. The other thing is that May 2024 is when they will release Chapter 2 Season 2 and an auction event will occur (for acquiring NFTs).
The video is here:
Moving onto the NFT Markets themselves. Is it fair to say that the NFT markets for Symbiogenesis and Project Zircon have crashed?
Let's first look at Symbiogenesis, since Square Enix uses a third-party to list their NFTs, that third-party (OpenSea) provides statistics for the NFTs.
Here is the activity page for Symbiogenesis on OpenSea: https://opensea.io/collection/symbiogenesis/activity?search[eventTypes][0]=AUCTION_SUCCESSFUL
Before looking at the chart, let's talk about the information in the Symbiogenesis profile. I'll repeat information I said in one of my other threads:
The profile says, "Items 500". This most likely indicates that Square Enix has created only 500 NFTs so far. The current Total Volume is 110 ETH, total volume is most likely referring to the value of the total number of NFTs that have been traded. 110 ETH is approximately $415k as of this date. The Floor price is 0.1999 ETH (approximately $755), according to OpenSea, the floor price is the "lowest price for collection items". The best offer currently is around 0.1 WETH (Wrapped Ether) which is approximately $377. There are 5% of the items listed currently i.e. 25 NFTs listed. 277 (55%) of the 500 NFTs have owners.
The analytics page has data on who owns the NFTs and the owner distribution: https://opensea.io/collection/symbiogenesis/analytics?tab=items
Here is an image of the chart from the activity page:
The chart's date range is "all time". If you look at the roadmap: https://docs.symbiogenesis.app/docs/roadmap
It mentions that Chapter 1 Character Mints happened on November 27, 2023 and then the game released on December 21, 2023.
You can see then how the chart image looks like the sales and price value crashed approximately one month after the game launched.
Here are the chart values in a table:
When Season 2 rolls around in May 2024, we can compare how the trading activity is in the first five weeks to Season 1.
Moving onto Project Zircon from Konami, here is the Resella (Konami's NFT marketplace) page for Project Zircon: https://resella.jp/service/1754514282
Since Konami owns Resella, we do not get the benefit of analytics like on OpenSea. At most, you can search for NFTs and I was able to find 210 NFTs listed for sale on the Resella marketplace. I do not even know if the NFTs are selling or not. The prices still vary wildly between NFTs of the same kind. You would remember that Konami did a promotion where you received an NFT of a flag from a selection of four. If you were holding two flag NFTs by a particular date, then you would be given a bonus NFT. Here is the post explaining it: https://www.installbaseforum.com/fo...-nft-marketplace-at-tgs-2023.1970/post-220474
Since it is past that date, you can see the new bonus NFTs on the marketplace and their prices vary wildly. Without any analytics, it is unknown if sales have crashed. When looking at the NFTs on the page, a seller has the option of leaving a note.
Here is someone trying to sell their bonus NFT for ¥4,000,000: https://resella.jp/service/1754514282/item/705
They have a note which machine translated says: "I'm in debt and in trouble, please help me"
Here is someone else trying to sell their flag NFT for ¥10,000: https://resella.jp/service/1754514282/item/210
They have a note which machine translated says: "If you are a man, I would appreciate it if you could buy it"
No, I still don't know what value these NFTs have or what they even do in Project Zircon. All I can see without analytics is some negative sentiment from the notes on people trying to sell their NFTs.
At least if I wait a month, I could count how many NFTs are still listed on Resella. The lowest price currently for a flag NFT on sale is ¥1,000. The cheapest bonus NFT on sale is ¥2,900.
Think about this for a moment where NFTs in Symbiogenesis at the floor price is $755 currently, meanwhile there are people trying to sell their Project Zircon flag NFTs for as cheap as $10 and bonus NFTs for as cheap as $29 and they are still listed. (I know the JPY is much weaker compared to USD currently)
Oh wait, I just realised something. On Resella, you can search for sold NFTs by changing the search settings. Here is the link: https://resella.jp/service/1754514282/search?seller_type=0&status=2&sale_type=0&sort_type=1
The cheapest flag NFTs have sold for ¥100 (~$1), the cheapest bonus NFTs have sold for ¥1,800 (~$18). The most expensive flag NFT sold for ¥15,000 (~$150) and the most expensive bonus NFT sold for ¥7,777 ($77.77). I have counted approximately 446 NFTs sold that are listed on that page. I don't know if those are unique listings or are recording every transaction.
For example, if you go to this NFT: https://resella.jp/service/1754514282/item/675
Its transaction history will show that it has been traded twice. Also note that the seller made a loss of ¥300 from buying that NFT for ¥2,300 and then selling it for ¥2,000.
If you are wondering why the Project Zircon NFTs are in Japanese Yen and not a cryptocurrency, that is because Resella does not require the use of gas fees, wallets and cryptocurrency, details here: https://www.installbaseforum.com/fo...try-part-2-the-asset-economy.2243/post-220517
That's all the data we have Symbiogenesis from Square Enix and Project Zircon from Konami, so far, the data suggests that they're not a massive success.
The video is here:
Moving onto the NFT Markets themselves. Is it fair to say that the NFT markets for Symbiogenesis and Project Zircon have crashed?
Let's first look at Symbiogenesis, since Square Enix uses a third-party to list their NFTs, that third-party (OpenSea) provides statistics for the NFTs.
Here is the activity page for Symbiogenesis on OpenSea: https://opensea.io/collection/symbiogenesis/activity?search[eventTypes][0]=AUCTION_SUCCESSFUL
Before looking at the chart, let's talk about the information in the Symbiogenesis profile. I'll repeat information I said in one of my other threads:
The profile says, "Items 500". This most likely indicates that Square Enix has created only 500 NFTs so far. The current Total Volume is 110 ETH, total volume is most likely referring to the value of the total number of NFTs that have been traded. 110 ETH is approximately $415k as of this date. The Floor price is 0.1999 ETH (approximately $755), according to OpenSea, the floor price is the "lowest price for collection items". The best offer currently is around 0.1 WETH (Wrapped Ether) which is approximately $377. There are 5% of the items listed currently i.e. 25 NFTs listed. 277 (55%) of the 500 NFTs have owners.
The analytics page has data on who owns the NFTs and the owner distribution: https://opensea.io/collection/symbiogenesis/analytics?tab=items
Here is an image of the chart from the activity page:
The chart's date range is "all time". If you look at the roadmap: https://docs.symbiogenesis.app/docs/roadmap
It mentions that Chapter 1 Character Mints happened on November 27, 2023 and then the game released on December 21, 2023.
You can see then how the chart image looks like the sales and price value crashed approximately one month after the game launched.
Here are the chart values in a table:
| Date | Number of Sales | Average Price (ETH) | Volume (ETH) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27 NOV 2023 | 41 | 0.2232 | 9.1492 |
| 4 DEC 2023 | 46 | 0.3522 | 16.201 |
| 11 DEC 2023 | 19 | 0.53 | 10.0693 |
| 18 DEC 2023 | 58 | 0.5045 | 29.2607 |
| 25 DEC 2023 | 29 | 0.6709 | 19.455 |
| 1 JAN 2024 | 20 | 0.4617 | 9.2342 |
| 8 JAN 2024 | 16 | 0.3098 | 4.9574 |
| 15 JAN 2024 | 17 | 0.2479 | 4.214 |
| 22 JAN 2024 | 6 | 0.2298 | 1.379 |
| 29 JAN 2024 | 9 | 0.2023 | 1.821 |
| 5 FEB 2024 | 4 | 0.2012 | 0.805 |
| 12 FEB 2024 | 14 | 0.1997 | 2.796 |
| 19 FEB 2024 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 26 FEB 2024 | 2 | 0.1164 | 0.2327 |
When Season 2 rolls around in May 2024, we can compare how the trading activity is in the first five weeks to Season 1.
Moving onto Project Zircon from Konami, here is the Resella (Konami's NFT marketplace) page for Project Zircon: https://resella.jp/service/1754514282
Since Konami owns Resella, we do not get the benefit of analytics like on OpenSea. At most, you can search for NFTs and I was able to find 210 NFTs listed for sale on the Resella marketplace. I do not even know if the NFTs are selling or not. The prices still vary wildly between NFTs of the same kind. You would remember that Konami did a promotion where you received an NFT of a flag from a selection of four. If you were holding two flag NFTs by a particular date, then you would be given a bonus NFT. Here is the post explaining it: https://www.installbaseforum.com/fo...-nft-marketplace-at-tgs-2023.1970/post-220474
Since it is past that date, you can see the new bonus NFTs on the marketplace and their prices vary wildly. Without any analytics, it is unknown if sales have crashed. When looking at the NFTs on the page, a seller has the option of leaving a note.
Here is someone trying to sell their bonus NFT for ¥4,000,000: https://resella.jp/service/1754514282/item/705
They have a note which machine translated says: "I'm in debt and in trouble, please help me"
Here is someone else trying to sell their flag NFT for ¥10,000: https://resella.jp/service/1754514282/item/210
They have a note which machine translated says: "If you are a man, I would appreciate it if you could buy it"
No, I still don't know what value these NFTs have or what they even do in Project Zircon. All I can see without analytics is some negative sentiment from the notes on people trying to sell their NFTs.
At least if I wait a month, I could count how many NFTs are still listed on Resella. The lowest price currently for a flag NFT on sale is ¥1,000. The cheapest bonus NFT on sale is ¥2,900.
Think about this for a moment where NFTs in Symbiogenesis at the floor price is $755 currently, meanwhile there are people trying to sell their Project Zircon flag NFTs for as cheap as $10 and bonus NFTs for as cheap as $29 and they are still listed. (I know the JPY is much weaker compared to USD currently)
Oh wait, I just realised something. On Resella, you can search for sold NFTs by changing the search settings. Here is the link: https://resella.jp/service/1754514282/search?seller_type=0&status=2&sale_type=0&sort_type=1
The cheapest flag NFTs have sold for ¥100 (~$1), the cheapest bonus NFTs have sold for ¥1,800 (~$18). The most expensive flag NFT sold for ¥15,000 (~$150) and the most expensive bonus NFT sold for ¥7,777 ($77.77). I have counted approximately 446 NFTs sold that are listed on that page. I don't know if those are unique listings or are recording every transaction.
For example, if you go to this NFT: https://resella.jp/service/1754514282/item/675
Its transaction history will show that it has been traded twice. Also note that the seller made a loss of ¥300 from buying that NFT for ¥2,300 and then selling it for ¥2,000.
If you are wondering why the Project Zircon NFTs are in Japanese Yen and not a cryptocurrency, that is because Resella does not require the use of gas fees, wallets and cryptocurrency, details here: https://www.installbaseforum.com/fo...try-part-2-the-asset-economy.2243/post-220517
That's all the data we have Symbiogenesis from Square Enix and Project Zircon from Konami, so far, the data suggests that they're not a massive success.
