Walmart.com Sales Tracker

[GamingCJ]

Actually looking back, Walmart dropped One S and X down to $199/$399 2 days before Microsoft revealed those as the official discounts, so there is some precedence to them doing random deals.

I see. Still, I've seen retailers take a headstart with discounts some times before. Doing completely random deals is on another level.
It really smells a bit like clearance, maybe you are right about the connection with Walmart abandoning physical Xbox games.

On the bright side: that insane $349 deal makes NPD December much more interesting!

 

[GamingCJ]

That $349 deal for all Series X skus is still going on. Absolutely crazy.
Did we ever have a holiday where Xbox was $150 cheaper than PS?

 

[salesguy]

wal mart must be selling a mertric button of xbox's. while the diablo 4 bundle is out for me the regular x is still available at 349.

 

[Welfare]

December as of Week 2 and Week 2 Minimums

XBS: +56,400 | +24,700
NSW: +44,400 | +20,400
PS5: +40,000 | +20,400

 

[Radagon07]

December as of Week 2 and Week 2 Minimums

XBS: +56,400 | +24,700
NSW: +44,400 | +20,400
PS5: +40,000 | +20,400

Series x, series x diablo, series s starter
The demand is very high, the 2 series X were Walmart's 2 best-selling consoles and the series S very close. More should send many more units, they had a forecast of 1.7B of hardware sales and if they push harder they could reach 2B

 

[Welfare]

I finally figured out how to force a Walmart.com listing to show.

This string: ?selectedSellerId=0

Needs to go after the initial string of numbers in a URL

This is the link to the Series S Starter Bundle, which defaults to the antonline listing for me: https://www.walmart.com/ip/Xbox-Ser...ing-3-Months-of-Game-Pass-Ultimate/3962953384

But turn the URL into this: https://www.walmart.com/ip/Xbox-Ser...e-Pass-Ultimate/3962953384?selectedSellerId=0

Bam. Now I know that SKU is still selling +1000 a day, when for a few days now it's been hidden.

 

[biglo25]

I finally figured out how to force a Walmart.com listing to show.

This string: ?selectedSellerId=0

Needs to go after the initial string of numbers in a URL

This is the link to the Series S Starter Bundle, which defaults to the antonline listing for me: https://www.walmart.com/ip/Xbox-Ser...ing-3-Months-of-Game-Pass-Ultimate/3962953384

But turn the URL into this: https://www.walmart.com/ip/Xbox-Ser...e-Pass-Ultimate/3962953384?selectedSellerId=0

Bam. Now I know that SKU is still selling +1000 a day, when for a few days now it's been hidden.

so there been some undercounting for the Series that has been fixed and that what the tweet was for?

 

[biglo25]

@Welfare who do you think is xbox big hardware partner because it looks like walmart with all those units you be posting

 

[Welfare]

@biglo25 I can't go back to older days and see what certain SKU sold, but we have 19 days of the Forza bundle probably selling at least 100 a day, like yesterday, and I think a few days of the Series S and Series S Starter Bundle that weren't showing true sales when yesterday they showed +500 and +1000.

I won't estimate what could've been sold but we can just say that whatever Xbox is at, we can add some additional sales on top.

Walmart probably received a ton of units because Microsoft thought sell through rates would be much faster and larger. Walmart is just the only retailer that went drastic with cutting the price to move supply.

 

[Welfare]

December as of Week 3 and Week 3 Minimums

XBS: +80,200 | +23,800
NSW: +70,400 | +26,000
PS5: +67,000 | +27,000

 

[theprodigy]

This feels like a stupid question but do these numbers include purchases done entirely in store? I'm guessing not but I'm just checking.

 

[Welfare]

This feels like a stupid question but do these numbers include purchases done entirely in store? I'm guessing not but I'm just checking.

I'm under the assumption they do. The Series X Forza Bundle doesn't have a shipping option (it says out of stock) yet still has it at +100 since yesterday.

 

[MarcoP90]

December as of Week 3 and Week 3 Minimums

XBS: +80,200 | +23,800
NSW: +70,400 | +26,000
PS5: +67,000 | +27,000

Looking at the previous posts: unless I'm mistaken, this means that every console (PS5 and Switch in particular) already saw higher sales at Walmart in December than in November, despite the fact that we're far from the end of the month.

 

[Welfare]

Looking at the previous posts: unless I'm mistaken, this means that every console (PS5 and Switch in particular) already saw higher sales at Walmart in December than in November, despite the fact that we're far from the end of the month.

Yeah right now everything is "up" MOM, looking only at what was sold at a minimum.

 

[Welfare]

December as of Week 4 and Week 4 Minimums

NSW: +101,800 | +31,400
XBS: +100,000 | +19,800
PS5: +95,100 | +28,100

 

[theprodigy]

What time does this refresh each day?

 

[Welfare]

What time does this refresh each day?

I think it updates two times day. I've seen the numbers change (months ago) around noon and in the night. I haven't been checking outside of midnight so I can't say when exactly it could update.

 

[Welfare]

December - 35 Days
Xbox

Week	Series S	S Gilded	S 1TB	S Starter	S Holiday	Series X	X D4	X FH5	X D4 + MW3	X D4 + Madden	Total
Nov 27 - Dec 02	4,500​	3,500​	700​	7,000​	-	6,500​	7,000​	2,300​	100​	100​	31,700​
Dec 03 - Dec 09	700​	6,000​	700​	3,700​	600​	7,000​	7,000​	0​	-	-	25,700​
Dec 10 - Dec 16	1,000​	5,000​	1,100​	3,500​	500​	7,000​	4,500​	200​	-	-	22,800​
Dec 17 - Dec 23	200​	6,000​	700​	4,600​	300​	7,000​	700​	100​	-	-	19,600​
Dec 24 - Dec 30	0​	4,500​	700​	2,700​	0​	7,000​	700​	0​	-	-	15,600​
Total	6,400​	25,000​	3,900​	21,500​	1,400​	34,500​	19,900​	2,600​	100​	100​	115,400​

Up to December 16, Xbox is likely thousands higher. I went over why in this post.

PS5

Week	PS5	Standard SM2	Slim SM2	Slim MW3	Slim DE	Slim	Total
Nov 27 - Dec 02	3,400​	7,000​	2,200​	7,000​	-	-	19,600​
Dec 03 - Dec 09	500​	7,000​	4,200​	7,000​	1,700​	-	20,400​
Dec 10 - Dec 16	0​	7,000​	7,000​	7,000​	6,000​	-	27,000​
Dec 17 - Dec 23	100​	7,000​	7,000​	7,000​	7,000​	-	28,100​
Dec 24 - Dec 30	500​	6,000​	7,000​	1,900​	7,000​	0​	22,400​
Total	4,500​	34,000​	27,400​	29,900​	21,700​	0​	117,500​

Switch

Week	MK8D	Neon	Smash OLED	White OLED	Red OLED	Neon OLED	Zelda OLED	Splatoon OLED	Blue Lite	Teal Lite	Pink Lite	AC Teal Lite	Total
Nov 27 - Dec 02	7,000​	700​	5,500​	700​	200​	200​	600​	300​	1,900​	700​	700​	5,500​	24,000​
Dec 03 - Dec 09	7,000​	700​	3,500​	700​	0​	0​	600​	500​	1,500​	700​	700​	4,500​	20,400​
Dec 10 - Dec 16	7,000​	2,800​	3,500​	700​	0​	0​	700​	600​	3,500​	1,100​	700​	5,500​	26,100​
Dec 17 - Dec 23	6,500​	7,000​	3,500​	2,000​	500​	700​	700​	200​	1,900​	700​	700​	7,000​	31,400​
Dec 24 - Dec 30	500​	1,600​	500​	3,600​	200​	200​	500​	0​	100​	100​	100​	2,400​	9,800​
Total	28,000​	12,800​	16,500​	7,700​	900​	1,100​	3,100​	1,600​	8,900​	3,300​	2,900​	24,900​	111,700​

Updated market share

Xbox

Month	Minimum Sales	Minimum Market Share
January	+35,000	+16.7%
February	+25,400	+9.8%
March	+9,000	+2.9%
May	+7,200	+5.5%
June	+12,000	+5.5%
September	+15,000	+5.1%
October	+12,000	+6.0%
November	+74,000	+12.8%

PS5

Month	Minimum Sales	Minimum Market Share
January	+40,000	+9.3%
February	+60,900	+10.7%
March	+67,000	+10.2%
May	+24,700	+8.8%
June	+45,000	+10.5%
September	+38,600	+8.0%
October	+28,100	+8.8%
November	+57,100	+5.5%

Switch

Month	Minimum Sales	Minimum Market Share
October	+9,600	+4.6%
November	+52,300	+9.2%

 

[Megiddo]

Hard to believe with such heavy discounts for Xbox Series X that PS5 has managed to stay relatively close to it in terms of Walmart sales in the month of December.

 

[Welfare]

Hard to believe with such heavy discounts for Xbox Series X that PS5 has managed to stay relatively close to it in terms of Walmart sales in the month of December.

+1000 as a minimum really undersells what each console could've sold in reality.

 

[Welfare]

Posting the following links to make my life easier

Xbox Series X
Xbox Series X Diablo IV Bundle
Xbox Series X Forza Horizon 5 Bundle
Xbox Series S
Xbox Series S Holiday
Xbox Series S Gilded Hunter Bundle
Xbox Series S Starter Bundle
Xbox Series S 1TB

PS5
PS5 Spider-Man 2 Bundle
PS5 Slim
PS5 Slim Spider-Man 2 Bundle
PS5 Slim Modern Warfare III Bundle
PS5 Slim Digital Edition
PS5 Slim Digital Edition Spider-Man 2 Bundle

Switch Neon
Switch Neon Mario Kart 8 Bundle
Switch OLED White
Switch OLED Neon
Switch OLED Red
Switch OLED Tears of the Kingdom
Switch OLED Splatoon 3
Switch OLED Super Smash Bros. Ultimate Bundle
Switch Lite Blue
Switch Lite Coral
Switch Lite Turquoise
Switch Lite Turquoise Animal Crossing: New Horizons Bundle

 

[ILikeFeet]

we trackin toasters or nah?

Robot or human?

 

[SoonyXboneUhh]

we trackin toasters or nah?

Robot or human?

I like that more than the mini fridge, because it's more useful.

 

[Malden]

we trackin toasters or nah?

Robot or human?

Will there be a black model that holds twice as much bread?

 

[salesguy]

the burning in the xbox logo seems problematic, that's untoasted bread spots.

 

[theprodigy]

we trackin toasters or nah?

Robot or human?

Getting a toaster cause the Xbox Series S is toast.

 

[Welfare]

Looks like certain or potentially all hardware SKU could show +50 sold now. The PS5 old model showed it yesterday and the Switch Red OLED does as well.

 

[theprodigy]

Looks like certain or potentially all hardware SKU could show +50 sold now. The PS5 old model showed it yesterday and the Switch Red OLED does as well.

Apparently 25+ is a thing now? (not sure if carts only or sold too)

Spoiler: Kirby

 

[Welfare]

January 2024 - 35 Days
"-" means the SKU didn't register at least 100+ for a day up to January 11, and 50+ for a day after January 11.

Xbox

Week	Series S	S Gilded	S Starter	S Holiday	S 1TB	Series X	X D4	Total
Dec 31 - Jan 06	-	2,700​	500​	500​	-	1,100​	400​	5,200​
Jan 07 - Jan 13	-	3,100​	0​	700​	-	700​	-	4,500​
Jan 14 - Jan 20	100​	1,900​	150​	700​	150​	1,100​	-	4,100​
Jan 21 - Jan 27	250​	700​	200​	450​	250​	1,100​	50​	3,000​
Jan 28 - Feb 03	50​	700​	250​	450​	300​	700​	-	2,450​
Total	400​	9,100​	1,100​	2,800​	700​	4,700​	450​	19,250​

PS5

Week	PS5	Standard SM2	Slim	Slim SM2	Slim MW3	Slim DE	Total
Dec 31 - Jan 06	-	700​	-	6,500​	700​	3,500​	11,400​
Jan 07 - Jan 13	200​	700​	700​	2,700​	600​	3,500​	8,400​
Jan 14 - Jan 20	400​	700​	1,100​	700​	350​	3,500​	6,750​
Jan 21 - Jan 27	400​	700​	2,700​	650​	300​	2,700​	7,450​
Jan 28 - Feb 03	50​	600​	2,700​	600​	200​	3,500​	7,650​
Total	1,050​	3,400​	7,200​	11,150​	2,150​	16,700​	41,650​

Switch

Week	Neon	MK8D	White OLED	Red OLED	Blue Lite	AC Teal Lite	Total
Dec 31 - Jan 06	700​	-	700​	-	-	700​	2,100​
Jan 07 - Jan 13	700​	-	600​	100​	-	700​	2,100​
Jan 14 - Jan 20	700​	50​	500​	50​	200​	700​	2,200​
Jan 21 - Jan 27	600​	-	500​	50​	150​	500​	1,800​
Jan 28 - Feb 03	700​	-	600​	-	100​	450​	1,850​
Total	3,400​	50​	2,900​	200​	450​	3,050​	10,050​

Something I'm going to start doing since we have a new bottom for low selling items is trying to estimate out what Walmart really sold, beyond the minimum. I do this over in the Amazon thread.

Here's every day what each SKU sold. Any dash up to Day 12 means that the item sold less than 100 units. Starting Day 13 Walmart began displaying 50+ as the new minimum for sales without defaulting to number of carts, so any dash after that day is assumed to be under 50. Also, the numbers go as follows:

- = wasn't tracking until it sold at least 100 (before Day 13) or 50 (Day 13 on)
0 = sold out
100c = 100-200 carts
200c = 201 carts or higher (no greater milestone)
50 = 50-100
100 = 101-500
500 = 501-1000
1000 = 1001 or higher (no greater milestone)

Xbox

Day	Series S	S Gilded	S Starter	S Holiday	S 1TB	Series X	X D4
Day 1​	-​	500​	100​	-​	-​	500​	-​
Day 2​	-​	100​	100​	-​	-​	100​	-​
Day 3​	-​	100​	100​	100​	-​	100​	100​
Day 4​	-​	500​	100​	100​	-​	100​	100​
Day 5​	-​	500​	100​	100​	-​	100​	100​
Day 6​	-​	500​	200c​	100​	-​	100​	100​
Day 7​	-​	500​	200c​	100​	-​	100​	200c​
Day 8​	-​	500​	200c​	100​	-​	100​	200c​
Day 9​	-​	500​	200c​	100​	-​	100​	200c​
Day 10​	-​	100​	200c​	100​	-​	100​	100c​
Day 11​	-​	500​	200c​	100​	-​	100​	100c​
Day 12​	-​	500​	200c​	100​	-​	100​	100c​
Day 13​	-​	500​	200c​	100​	-​	100​	100c​
Day 14​	-​	500​	200c​	100​	-​	100​	100c​
Day 15​	-​	500​	200c​	100​	-​	100​	100c​
Day 16​	-​	100​	200c​	100​	-​	100​	100c​
Day 17​	-​	100​	200c​	100​	-​	100​	100c​
Day 18​	-​	100​	200c​	100​	50​	100​	100c​
Day 19​	-​	100​	50​	100​	200c​	100​	100c​
Day 20​	50​	500​	50​	100​	50​	100​	200c​
Day 21​	50​	500​	50​	100​	50​	500​	200c​
Day 22​	50​	100​	50​	100​	50​	100​	50​
Day 23​	200c​	100​	200c​	100​	200c​	100​	200c​
Day 24​	200c​	100​	200c​	50​	200c​	100​	200c​
Day 25​	50​	100​	200c​	50​	50​	100​	200c​
Day 26​	50​	100​	50​	50​	50​	100​	200c​
Day 27​	50​	100​	50​	50​	50​	100​	200c​
Day 28​	50​	100​	50​	50​	50​	500​	100c​
Day 29​	200c​	100​	200c​	100​	50​	100​	100c​
Day 30​	200c​	100​	200c​	100​	200c​	100​	100c​
Day 31​	200c​	100​	50​	50​	50​	100​	200c​
Day 32​	0​	100​	50​	50​	50​	100​	200c​
Day 33​	200c​	100​	50​	50​	50​	100​	200c​
Day 34​	200c​	100​	50​	50​	50​	100​	200c​
Day 35​	50​	100​	50​	50​	50​	100​	200c​

PS5

Day	PS5	Standard SM2	Slim	Slim SM2	Slim MW3	Slim DE
Day 1​	-​	100​	-​	1000​	100​	500​
Day 2​	-​	100​	-​	1000​	100​	500​
Day 3​	-​	100​	-​	1000​	100​	500​
Day 4​	-​	100​	-​	1000​	100​	500​
Day 5​	-​	100​	-​	1000​	100​	500​
Day 6​	-​	100​	-​	1000​	100​	500​
Day 7​	-​	100​	-​	500​	100​	500​
Day 8​	-​	100​	100​	500​	100​	500​
Day 9​	-​	100​	100​	500​	100​	500​
Day 10​	-​	100​	100​	500​	100​	500​
Day 11​	-​	100​	100​	500​	100​	500​
Day 12​	-​	100​	100​	500​	200c​	500​
Day 13​	100​	100​	100​	100​	100​	500​
Day 14​	100​	100​	100​	100​	100​	500​
Day 15​	100​	100​	100​	100​	50​	500​
Day 16​	50​	100​	100​	100​	50​	500​
Day 17​	50​	100​	100​	100​	50​	500​
Day 18​	50​	100​	100​	100​	50​	500​
Day 19​	50​	100​	100​	100​	50​	500​
Day 20​	50​	100​	100​	100​	50​	500​
Day 21​	50​	100​	500​	100​	50​	500​
Day 22​	50​	100​	500​	100​	50​	500​
Day 23​	100​	100​	500​	100​	50​	100​
Day 24​	50​	100​	500​	100​	50​	100​
Day 25​	50​	100​	100​	100​	50​	500​
Day 26​	50​	100​	100​	50​	50​	500​
Day 27​	50​	100​	500​	100​	50​	500​
Day 28​	50​	100​	500​	100​	200c​	500​
Day 29​	50​	100​	100​	50​	200c​	500​
Day 30​	200c​	100​	100​	50​	200c​	500​
Day 31​	200c​	50​	500​	100​	0​	500​
Day 32​	200c​	50​	500​	100​	50​	500​
Day 33​	200c​	100​	500​	100​	50​	500​
Day 34​	200c​	100​	500​	100​	50​	500​
Day 35​	200c​	100​	500​	100​	50​	500​

Switch

Day	Neon	MK8D	White OLED	Red OLED	Blue Lite	AC Teal Lite
Day 1​	100​	-​	100​	-​	-​	100​
Day 2​	100​	-​	100​	-​	-​	100​
Day 3​	100​	-​	100​	-​	-​	100​
Day 4​	100​	-​	100​	-​	-​	100​
Day 5​	100​	-​	100​	-​	-​	100​
Day 6​	100​	-​	100​	-​	-​	100​
Day 7​	100​	-​	100​	-​	-​	100​
Day 8​	100​	-​	100​	-​	-​	100​
Day 9​	100​	-​	100​	-​	-​	100​
Day 10​	100​	-​	200c​	-​	-​	100​
Day 11​	100​	-​	100​	-​	-​	100​
Day 12​	100​	-​	100​	-​	-​	100​
Day 13​	100​	-​	100​	50​	-​	100​
Day 14​	100​	-​	100​	50​	-​	100​
Day 15​	100​	-​	100​	200c​	-​	100​
Day 16​	100​	-​	50​	200c​	-​	100​
Day 17​	100​	-​	50​	200c​	-​	100​
Day 18​	100​	-​	50​	100c​	50​	100​
Day 19​	100​	-​	50​	100c​	50​	100​
Day 20​	100​	-​	100​	100c​	50​	100​
Day 21​	100​	50​	100​	50​	50​	100​
Day 22​	100​	200c​	100​	50​	50​	100​
Day 23​	50​	200c​	50​	100c​	200c​	50​
Day 24​	50​	200c​	50​	100c​	200c​	50​
Day 25​	100​	200c​	50​	100c​	200c​	50​
Day 26​	100​	200c​	50​	100c​	200c​	50​
Day 27​	100​	200c​	100​	100c​	50​	100​
Day 28​	100​	200c​	100​	100c​	50​	100​
Day 29​	100​	200c​	100​	200c​	200c​	50​
Day 30​	100​	200c​	100​	200c​	200c​	50​
Day 31​	100​	200c​	100​	200c​	200c​	50​
Day 32​	100​	200c​	50​	100c​	200c​	100​
Day 33​	100​	200c​	50​	100c​	200c​	100​
Day 34​	100​	200c​	100​	100c​	50​	50​
Day 35​	100​	200c​	100​	200c​	50​	50​

What I estimate beyond minimum:

PS5:66,000
XBS: 44,000
Switch: 21,000

Updated market share
Xbox

Month	Minimum Sales	Minimum Market Share
January 2023	+35,000	+16.7%
February 2023	+25,400	+9.8%
March 2023	+9,000	+2.9%
May 2023	+7,200	+5.5%
June 2023	+12,000	+5.5%
September 2023	+15,000	+5.1%
October 2023	+12,000	+6.0%
November 2023	+74,000	+12.8%
December 2023	+115,400	+10.0%
January 2024	+19,250

PS5

Month	Minimum Sales	Minimum Market Share
January 2023	+40,000	+9.3%
February 2023	+60,900	+10.7%
March 2023	+67,000	+10.2%
May 2023	+24,700	+8.8%
June 2023	+45,000	+10.5%
September 2023	+38,600	+8.0%
October 2023	+28,100	+8.8%
November 2023	+57,100	+5.5%
December 2023	+117,500	+7.8%
January 2024	+41,650

Switch

Month	Minimum Sales	Minimum Market Share
October 2023	+9,600	+4.6%
November 2023	+52,300	+9.2%
December 2023	+111,700	+8.9%
January 2024	+10,050

 

[Welfare]

February 2024 up to Week 3

PS5 Week 1: 7,650
PS5 Week 2: 8,800
PS5 Week 3: 13,650
Total: 30,100

XBS Week 1: 2,500
XBS Week 2: 4,150
XBS Week 3: 4,500
Total: 11,150

NSW Week 1: 1,650
NSW Week 2: 2,200
NSW Week 3: 2,950
Total: 6,800

Below I have what I collected for last year up to March. Just a reminder that Xbox had a significant amount of units sold at Walmart this time last year because of the $249 Series S deals still lasting. 2024 is down big YOY yet in Circana the XBS was up YOY.

January

Week	Series S Holiday	Series S Gilded	Series X	Total	Estimated Circana	Minimum market share
Jan 01 - Jan 07 * Missing Jan 01	6,000​	600​	2,600​	9,200​
Jan 08 - Jan 14 * Missing Jan 10	5,500​	600​	6,000​	12,100​
Jan 15 - Jan 21 * Missing Jan 17	3,000​	600​	2,000​	5,600​
Jan 22 - Jan 28	3,500​	?​	2,000​	5,500​
Total	18,000​	1,800​	12,600​	32,400+​	200,000​	+16.2%​

Accounting for all missing days, XBS probably goes up to a minimum of 35,000. Market share minimum would then be +17.5%.

Week	PS5 GOW	Digital Edition GOW	Total	Estimated Circana	Minimum market share
Jan 01 - Jan 07 * Missing Jan 01, 02, 04	4,000​	3,000​	7,000​
Jan 08 - Jan 14 * Missing Jan 10	6,000​	2,500​	8,500​
Jan 15 - Jan 21 * Missing Jan 17	4,000​	2,000​	6,000​
Jan 22 - Jan 28	7,000​	3,500​	10,500​
Total	21,000​	11,000​	32,000+​	430,000​	+7.4%​

Accounting for all missing days, PS5 probably goes up to a minimum of 40,000. Market share minimum would then be +9.3%.

February

Week	Series S Holiday	Series S Gilded	Series X	Series X FH5	Total	Estimated Circana	Minimum market share
Jan 29 - Feb 04	5,500​	0​	100​	?	5,600​
Feb 05 - Feb 11	7,000​	0​	0​	?	7,000​
Feb 12 - Feb 18	7,000​	0​	0​	?	7,000​
Feb 19 - Feb 25	5,100​	0​	500​	200​	5,800​
Total	24,600​	0​	600​	200​	25,400+​	240,000	+10.6%

Week	PS5 GOW	DE GOW	PS5	Digital Edition	Total	Estimated Circana	Minimum market share
Jan 29 - Feb 04	7,000​	3,000​			10,000​
Feb 05 - Feb 11	7,000​	1,900​	5,000​	4,000​	17,900​
Feb 12 - Feb 18	6,000​	3,500​	6,000​	0​	15,500​
Feb 19 - Feb 25	7,000​	5,500​	5,000​	0​	17,500​
Total	27,000​	13,900​	16,000​	4,000​	60,900​	560,000	+10.9%

March

Week	Series S Holiday	Series S Gilded	Series X	Series X FH5	Total	Estimated Circana	Minimum market share
Feb 26 - Mar 04	700​	700​	500​	?	1,900​
Mar 05 - Mar 11	700​	600​	500​	?	1,800​
Mar 12 - Mar 18	700​	500​	600​	?	1,800​
Mar 19 - Mar 25	200​	600​	1,500​	?	2,300​
Mar 26 - Apr 01 * Missing Mar 29, Mar 30, Mar 31, Apr 01	?	300​	300​	?	600​
Total	2,300​	2,700​	3,400​	?	8,400+​	280,000	+3%

Accounting for all missing days, XBS probably goes up to a minimum of 9,000. Market share minimum would then be +3.2%.

Week	PS5 GOW	DE GOW	PS5	Digital Edition	Total	Estimated Circana	Minimum market share
Feb 26 - Mar 04	7,000​	5,500​	6,000​	4,000​	22,500​
Mar 05 - Mar 11	4,000​	1,400​	6,000​	3,000​	14,400​
Mar 12 - Mar 18	3,500​	700​	7,000​	0​	11,200​
Mar 19 - Mar 25	1,100​	700​	7,000​	2,100​	10,900​
Mar 26 - Apr 01 * Missing Mar 29, Mar 30, Mar 31, Apr 01	1,500​	300​	1,500​	?	3,300​
Total	17,100​	8,600​	27,500​	9,100​	62,300​	660,000	+9.4%

Accounting for all missing days, PS5 probably goes up to a minimum of 67,000. Market share minimum would then be +10.1%.

 

[Welfare]

February 2024 - 28 Days
"-" means the SKU didn't register at least 50+ for a day before being tracked.

Xbox

Week	Series S	S Gilded	S Starter	S Holiday	S 1TB	Series X	X D4	Total
Feb 04 - Feb 10	300​	700​	250​	150​	300​	700​	100​	2,500​
Feb 11 - Feb 17	350​	700​	550​	-	150​	2,300​	100​	4,150​
Feb 18 - Feb 24	650​	500​	700​	-	650​	1,900​	100​	4,500​
Feb 25 - Mar 02	500​	300​	700​	-​	700​	3,500​	-	5,700​
Total	1,800​	2,200​	2,200​	150​	1,800​	8,400​	300​	16,850​

PS5

Week	PS5	Standard SM2	Slim	Slim SM2	Slim MW3	Slim DE	Total
Feb 04 - Feb 10	-	500​	3,100​	600​	350​	3,100​	7,650​
Feb 11 - Feb 17	-	550​	3,500​	550​	200​	4,000​	8,800​
Feb 18 - Feb 24	100​	1,100​	5,000​	1,500​	450​	5,500​	13,650​
Feb 25 - Mar 02	-	1,500​	6,000​	4,700​	350​	6,000​	18,550​
Total	100​	3,650​	17,600​	7,350​	1,350​	18,600​	48,650​

Switch

Week	Neon	White OLED	Neon OLED	Blue Lite	Pink Lite	Teal Lite	AC Teal Lite	Total
Feb 04 - Feb 10	550​	550​	-	50​	-	-	500​	1,650​
Feb 11 - Feb 17	700​	700​	50​	-	50​	-	700​	2,200​
Feb 18 - Feb 24	700​	700​	250​	300​	150​	150​	700​	2,950​
Feb 25 - Mar 02	700​	700​	50​	150​	150​	-	700​	2,450​
Total	2,650​	2,650​	350​	500​	350​	150​	2,600​	9,250​

Something I'm going to start doing since we have a new bottom for low selling items is trying to estimate out what Walmart really sold, beyond the minimum. I do this over in the Amazon thread.

Here's every day what each SKU sold. Any dash means that the item sold less than 50 units. The numbers go as follows:

- = wasn't tracking until it sold at least 50
0 = sold out
100c = 100-200 carts
200c = 201 carts or higher (no greater milestone)
50 = 50-100
100 = 101-500
500 = 501-1000
1000 = 1001 or higher (no greater milestone)

Xbox

Day	Series S	S Gilded	S Starter	S Holiday	S 1TB	Series X	X D4
Day 1​	50​	100​	50​	50​	50​	100​	-​
Day 2​	50​	100​	50​	50​	50​	100​	50​
Day 3​	50​	100​	200c​	50​	50​	100​	50​
Day 4​	200c​	100​	200c​	200c​	200c​	100​	200c​
Day 5​	50​	100​	50​	100c​	50​	100​	200c​
Day 6​	50​	100​	50​	50c​	50​	100​	200c​
Day 7​	50​	100​	50​	50c​	50​	100​	200c​
Day 8​	50​	100​	50​	50c​	200c​	100​	200c​
Day 9​	200c​	100​	50​	50c​	200c​	100​	200c​
Day 10​	200c​	100​	100​	50c​	200c​	100​	200c​
Day 11​	50​	100​	100​	50c​	200c​	500​	200c​
Day 12​	50​	100​	50​	50c​	200c​	500​	200c​
Day 13​	100​	100​	100​	50c​	50​	500​	50​
Day 14​	100​	100​	100​	50c​	100​	500​	50​
Day 15​	100​	100​	100​	50c​	100​	100​	200c​
Day 16​	100​	50​	100​	50c​	50​	100​	100c​
Day 17​	50​	50​	100​	50c​	100​	100​	100c​
Day 18​	100​	50​	100​	0​	100​	100​	100c​
Day 19​	100​	100​	100​	0​	100​	500​	50​
Day 20​	100​	100​	100​	50c​	100​	500​	50​
Day 21​	100​	50​	100​	0​	100​	500​	100c​
Day 22​	100​	50​	100​	0​	100​	500​	100c​
Day 23​	50​	50​	100​	0​	100​	500​	100c​
Day 24​	50​	50​	100​	50c​	100​	500​	100c​
Day 25​	50​	50​	100​	0​	100​	500​	100c​
Day 26​	50​	50​	100​	0​	100​	500​	100c​
Day 27​	100​	200c​	100​	0​	100​	500​	100c​
Day 28​	100​	50​	100​	0​	100​	500​	100c​

PS5

	PS5	Standard SM2	Slim	Slim SM2	Slim MW3	Slim DE
Day 1​	-​	50​	500​	100​	50​	500​
Day 2​	-​	50​	100​	50​	50​	100​
Day 3​	-​	50​	500​	50​	50​	500​
Day 4​	-​	100​	500​	100​	50​	500​
Day 5​	-​	100​	500​	100​	50​	500​
Day 6​	-​	100​	500​	100​	50​	500​
Day 7​	-​	50​	500​	100​	50​	500​
Day 8​	-​	50​	500​	50​	200c​	500​
Day 9​	-​	50​	500​	50​	200c​	500​
Day 10​	-​	50​	500​	50​	200c​	500​
Day 11​	-​	100​	500​	100​	50​	500​
Day 12​	-​	100​	500​	100​	50​	500​
Day 13​	-​	100​	500​	100​	50​	500​
Day 14​	-​	100​	500​	100​	50​	1000​
Day 15​	-​	100​	500​	100​	50​	500​
Day 16​	-​	100​	500​	100​	50​	500​
Day 17​	-​	100​	500​	100​	200c​	500​
Day 18​	-​	100​	500​	100​	50​	1000​
Day 19​	50​	100​	1000​	500​	100​	1000​
Day 20​	50​	500​	1000​	500​	100​	1000​
Day 21​	200c​	100​	1000​	100​	100​	1000​
Day 22​	200c​	100​	1000​	100​	50​	1000​
Day 23​	200c​	100​	500​	100​	50​	500​
Day 24​	200c​	100​	500​	500​	50​	500​
Day 25​	200c​	500​	1000​	1000​	50​	1000​
Day 26​	200c​	500​	1000​	1000​	50​	1000​
Day 27​	200c​	100​	1000​	1000​	50​	1000​
Day 28​	200c​	100​	1000​	1000​	50​	1000​

Switch

	Neon	White OLED	Neon OLED	Blue Lite	Pink Lite	Teal Lite	AC Teal Lite
	Neon	white oled	neon oled	blue lite	pink lite	teal lite	ac teal lite
Day 1	100​	100​	-	50​	-	-	50​
Day 2	50​	100​	-	200c	-	-	50​
Day 3	50​	50​	-	200c	-	-	100​
Day 4	50​	50​	-	100c	-	-	50​
Day 5	100​	50​	-	100c	-	-	50​
Day 6	100​	100​	-	100c	-	-	100​
Day 7	100​	100​	-	200c	-	-	100​
Day 8	100​	100​	-	200c	-	-	100​
Day 9	100​	100​	-	200c	-	-	100​
Day 10	100​	100​	-	200c	-	-	100​
Day 11	100​	100​	-	100c	-	-	100​
Day 12	100​	100​	-	100c	-	-	100​
Day 13	100​	100​	-	100c	50​	-	100​
Day 14	100​	100​	50​	200c	200c	-	100​
Day 15	100​	100​	200c	200c	200c	-	100​
Day 16	100​	100​	200c	200c	200c	-	100​
Day 17	100​	100​	50​	200c	200c	-	100​
Day 18	100​	100​	50​	50​	100c	-	100​
Day 19	100​	100​	50​	100​	50​	50​	100​
Day 20	100​	100​	50​	100​	50​	50​	100​
Day 21	100​	100​	50​	50​	50​	50​	100​
Day 22	100​	100​	50​	50​	50​	100c	100​
Day 23	100​	100​	100c	50​	200c	100c	100​
Day 24	100​	100​	100c	200c	200c	100c	100​
Day 25	100​	100​	100c	50​	200c	100c	100​
Day 26	100​	100​	100c	200c	200c	100c	100​
Day 27	100​	100​	200c	200c	50​	100c	100​
Day 28	100​	100​	200c	200c	50​	200c	100​

What I estimate beyond minimum:

PS5: 65,000
XBS: 29,000
Switch: 18,000

Updated market share
Xbox

Month	Minimum Sales	Minimum Market Share
January 2023	+35,000	+16.7%
February 2023	+25,400	+9.8%
March 2023	+9,000	+2.9%
May 2023	+7,200	+5.5%
June 2023	+12,000	+5.5%
September 2023	+15,000	+5.1%
October 2023	+12,000	+6.0%
November 2023	+74,000	+12.8%
December 2023	+115,400	+10.0%
January 2024	+19,250	+9.2%
February 2024	+16,850

PS5

Month	Minimum Sales	Minimum Market Share
January 2023	+40,000	+9.3%
February 2023	+60,900	+10.7%
March 2023	+67,000	+10.2%
May 2023	+24,700	+8.8%
June 2023	+45,000	+10.5%
September 2023	+38,600	+8.0%
October 2023	+28,100	+8.8%
November 2023	+57,100	+5.5%
December 2023	+117,500	+7.8%
January 2024	+41,650	+9.9%
February 2024	+48,650

Switch

Month	Minimum Sales	Minimum Market Share
October 2023	+9,600	+4.6%
November 2023	+52,300	+9.2%
December 2023	+111,700	+8.9%
January 2024	+10,050	+4.0%
February 2024	+9,250

 

[GamingCJ]

February 2024 - 28 Days
"-" means the SKU didn't register at least 50+ for a day before being tracked.

Xbox

Week	Series S	S Gilded	S Starter	S Holiday	S 1TB	Series X	X D4	Total
Feb 04 - Feb 10	300​	700​	250​	150​	300​	700​	100​	2,500​
Feb 11 - Feb 17	350​	700​	550​	-	150​	2,300​	100​	4,150​
Feb 18 - Feb 24	650​	500​	700​	-	650​	1,900​	100​	4,500​
Feb 25 - Mar 02	500​	300​	700​	-​	700​	3,500​	-	5,700​
Total	1,800​	2,200​	2,200​	150​	1,800​	8,400​	300​	16,850​

PS5

Week	PS5	Standard SM2	Slim	Slim SM2	Slim MW3	Slim DE	Total
Feb 04 - Feb 10	-	500​	3,100​	600​	350​	3,100​	7,650​
Feb 11 - Feb 17	-	550​	3,500​	550​	200​	4,000​	8,800​
Feb 18 - Feb 24	100​	1,100​	5,000​	1,500​	450​	5,500​	13,650​
Feb 25 - Mar 02	-	1,500​	6,000​	4,700​	350​	6,000​	18,550​
Total	100​	3,650​	17,600​	7,350​	1,350​	18,600​	48,650​

Switch

Week	Neon	White OLED	Neon OLED	Blue Lite	Pink Lite	Teal Lite	AC Teal Lite	Total
Feb 04 - Feb 10	550​	550​	-	50​	-	-	500​	1,650​
Feb 11 - Feb 17	700​	700​	50​	-	50​	-	700​	2,200​
Feb 18 - Feb 24	700​	700​	250​	300​	150​	150​	700​	2,950​
Feb 25 - Mar 02	700​	700​	50​	150​	150​	-	700​	2,450​
Total	2,650​	2,650​	350​	500​	350​	150​	2,600​	9,250​

Something I'm going to start doing since we have a new bottom for low selling items is trying to estimate out what Walmart really sold, beyond the minimum. I do this over in the Amazon thread.

Here's every day what each SKU sold. Any dash means that the item sold less than 50 units. The numbers go as follows:

- = wasn't tracking until it sold at least 50
0 = sold out
100c = 100-200 carts
200c = 201 carts or higher (no greater milestone)
50 = 50-100
100 = 101-500
500 = 501-1000
1000 = 1001 or higher (no greater milestone)

Xbox

Day	Series S	S Gilded	S Starter	S Holiday	S 1TB	Series X	X D4
Day 1​	​ 50​	​ 100​	​ 50​	​ 50​	​ 50​	​ 100​	-​
Day 2​	​ 50​	​ 100​	​ 50​	​ 50​	​ 50​	​ 100​	​ 50​
Day 3​	​ 50​	​ 100​	200c​	​ 50​	​ 50​	​ 100​	​ 50​
Day 4​	200c​	​ 100​	200c​	200c​	200c​	​ 100​	200c​
Day 5​	​ 50​	​ 100​	​ 50​	100c​	​ 50​	​ 100​	200c​
Day 6​	​ 50​	​ 100​	​ 50​	50c​	​ 50​	​ 100​	200c​
Day 7​	​ 50​	​ 100​	​ 50​	50c​	​ 50​	​ 100​	200c​
Day 8​	​ 50​	​ 100​	​ 50​	50c​	200c​	​ 100​	200c​
Day 9​	200c​	​ 100​	​ 50​	50c​	200c​	​ 100​	200c​
Day 10​	200c​	​ 100​	​ 100​	50c​	200c​	​ 100​	200c​
Day 11​	​ 50​	​ 100​	​ 100​	50c​	200c​	​ 500​	200c​
Day 12​	​ 50​	​ 100​	​ 50​	50c​	200c​	​ 500​	200c​
Day 13​	​ 100​	​ 100​	​ 100​	50c​	​ 50​	​ 500​	​ 50​
Day 14​	​ 100​	​ 100​	​ 100​	50c​	​ 100​	​ 500​	​ 50​
Day 15​	​ 100​	​ 100​	​ 100​	50c​	​ 100​	​ 100​	200c​
Day 16​	​ 100​	​ 50​	​ 100​	50c​	​ 50​	​ 100​	100c​
Day 17​	​ 50​	​ 50​	​ 100​	50c​	​ 100​	​ 100​	100c​
Day 18​	​ 100​	​ 50​	​ 100​	​ 0​	​ 100​	​ 100​	100c​
Day 19​	​ 100​	​ 100​	​ 100​	​ 0​	​ 100​	​ 500​	​ 50​
Day 20​	​ 100​	​ 100​	​ 100​	50c​	​ 100​	​ 500​	​ 50​
Day 21​	​ 100​	​ 50​	​ 100​	​ 0​	​ 100​	​ 500​	100c​
Day 22​	​ 100​	​ 50​	​ 100​	​ 0​	​ 100​	​ 500​	100c​
Day 23​	​ 50​	​ 50​	​ 100​	​ 0​	​ 100​	​ 500​	100c​
Day 24​	​ 50​	​ 50​	​ 100​	50c​	​ 100​	​ 500​	100c​
Day 25​	​ 50​	​ 50​	​ 100​	​ 0​	​ 100​	​ 500​	100c​
Day 26​	​ 50​	​ 50​	​ 100​	​ 0​	​ 100​	​ 500​	100c​
Day 27​	​ 100​	200c​	​ 100​	​ 0​	​ 100​	​ 500​	100c​
Day 28​	​ 100​	​ 50​	​ 100​	​ 0​	​ 100​	​ 500​	100c​

PS5

	PS5	Standard SM2	Slim	Slim SM2	Slim MW3	Slim DE
Day 1​	-​	​ 50​	​ 500​	​ 100​	​ 50​	​ 500​
Day 2​	-​	​ 50​	​ 100​	​ 50​	​ 50​	​ 100​
Day 3​	-​	​ 50​	​ 500​	​ 50​	​ 50​	​ 500​
Day 4​	-​	​ 100​	​ 500​	​ 100​	​ 50​	​ 500​
Day 5​	-​	​ 100​	​ 500​	​ 100​	​ 50​	​ 500​
Day 6​	-​	​ 100​	​ 500​	​ 100​	​ 50​	​ 500​
Day 7​	-​	​ 50​	​ 500​	​ 100​	​ 50​	​ 500​
Day 8​	-​	​ 50​	​ 500​	​ 50​	200c​	​ 500​
Day 9​	-​	​ 50​	​ 500​	​ 50​	200c​	​ 500​
Day 10​	-​	​ 50​	​ 500​	​ 50​	200c​	​ 500​
Day 11​	-​	​ 100​	​ 500​	​ 100​	​ 50​	​ 500​
Day 12​	-​	​ 100​	​ 500​	​ 100​	​ 50​	​ 500​
Day 13​	-​	​ 100​	​ 500​	​ 100​	​ 50​	​ 500​
Day 14​	-​	​ 100​	​ 500​	​ 100​	​ 50​	​ 1000​
Day 15​	-​	​ 100​	​ 500​	​ 100​	​ 50​	​ 500​
Day 16​	-​	​ 100​	​ 500​	​ 100​	​ 50​	​ 500​
Day 17​	-​	​ 100​	​ 500​	​ 100​	200c​	​ 500​
Day 18​	-​	​ 100​	​ 500​	​ 100​	​ 50​	​ 1000​
Day 19​	​ 50​	​ 100​	​ 1000​	​ 500​	​ 100​	​ 1000​
Day 20​	​ 50​	​ 500​	​ 1000​	​ 500​	​ 100​	​ 1000​
Day 21​	200c​	​ 100​	​ 1000​	​ 100​	​ 100​	​ 1000​
Day 22​	200c​	​ 100​	​ 1000​	​ 100​	​ 50​	​ 1000​
Day 23​	200c​	​ 100​	​ 500​	​ 100​	​ 50​	​ 500​
Day 24​	200c​	​ 100​	​ 500​	​ 500​	​ 50​	​ 500​
Day 25​	200c​	​ 500​	​ 1000​	​ 1000​	​ 50​	​ 1000​
Day 26​	200c​	​ 500​	​ 1000​	​ 1000​	​ 50​	​ 1000​
Day 27​	200c​	​ 100​	​ 1000​	​ 1000​	​ 50​	​ 1000​
Day 28​	200c​	​ 100​	​ 1000​	​ 1000​	​ 50​	​ 1000​

Switch

	Neon	White OLED	Neon OLED	Blue Lite	Pink Lite	Teal Lite	AC Teal Lite
	Neon	white oled	neon oled	blue lite	pink lite	teal lite	ac teal lite
Day 1	100​	100​	-	50​	-	-	50​
Day 2	50​	100​	-	200c	-	-	50​
Day 3	50​	50​	-	200c	-	-	100​
Day 4	50​	50​	-	100c	-	-	50​
Day 5	100​	50​	-	100c	-	-	50​
Day 6	100​	100​	-	100c	-	-	100​
Day 7	100​	100​	-	200c	-	-	100​
Day 8	100​	100​	-	200c	-	-	100​
Day 9	100​	100​	-	200c	-	-	100​
Day 10	100​	100​	-	200c	-	-	100​
Day 11	100​	100​	-	100c	-	-	100​
Day 12	100​	100​	-	100c	-	-	100​
Day 13	100​	100​	-	100c	50​	-	100​
Day 14	100​	100​	50​	200c	200c	-	100​
Day 15	100​	100​	200c	200c	200c	-	100​
Day 16	100​	100​	200c	200c	200c	-	100​
Day 17	100​	100​	50​	200c	200c	-	100​
Day 18	100​	100​	50​	50​	100c	-	100​
Day 19	100​	100​	50​	100​	50​	50​	100​
Day 20	100​	100​	50​	100​	50​	50​	100​
Day 21	100​	100​	50​	50​	50​	50​	100​
Day 22	100​	100​	50​	50​	50​	100c	100​
Day 23	100​	100​	100c	50​	200c	100c	100​
Day 24	100​	100​	100c	200c	200c	100c	100​
Day 25	100​	100​	100c	50​	200c	100c	100​
Day 26	100​	100​	100c	200c	200c	100c	100​
Day 27	100​	100​	200c	200c	50​	100c	100​
Day 28	100​	100​	200c	200c	50​	200c	100​

What I estimate beyond minimum:

PS5: 65,000
XBS: 29,000
Switch: 18,000

Updated market share
Xbox

Month	Minimum Sales	Minimum Market Share
January 2023	+35,000	+16.7%
February 2023	+25,400	+9.8%
March 2023	+9,000	+2.9%
May 2023	+7,200	+5.5%
June 2023	+12,000	+5.5%
September 2023	+15,000	+5.1%
October 2023	+12,000	+6.0%
November 2023	+74,000	+12.8%
December 2023	+115,400	+10.0%
January 2024	+19,250	+9.2%
February 2024	+16,850

PS5

Month	Minimum Sales	Minimum Market Share
January 2023	+40,000	+9.3%
February 2023	+60,900	+10.7%
March 2023	+67,000	+10.2%
May 2023	+24,700	+8.8%
June 2023	+45,000	+10.5%
September 2023	+38,600	+8.0%
October 2023	+28,100	+8.8%
November 2023	+57,100	+5.5%
December 2023	+117,500	+7.8%
January 2024	+41,650	+9.9%
February 2024	+48,650

Switch

Month	Minimum Sales	Minimum Market Share
October 2023	+9,600	+4.6%
November 2023	+52,300	+9.2%
December 2023	+111,700	+8.9%
January 2024	+10,050	+4.0%
February 2024	+9,250

Nice work.
Interesting that PS5:Xbox ratio went from ~2:1 in January (which is roughly in line with the Circana result) to 3:1 in February.
Looks like we'll see a massive month for PS5.

 

[Welfare]

Nice work.
Interesting that PS5:Xbox ratio went from ~2:1 in January (which is roughly in line with the Circana result) to 3:1 in February.
Looks like we'll see a massive month for PS5.

It wasn't 2:1 in January. I just wasn't confident in putting XBS at a specific value but it was at least 210K, which is why I used > for it and not ~ like PS5 and NSW.

Walmart XBS in January had a lot of the $269 Gilded Hunter bundle which ran out of stock towards the end of February. Target had the Starter bundle at $269 for half of February and a few days at $219, so that should be making up for (if not more than enough) the units "lost" at Walmart.

Also, when looking at both Amazon and Walmart, Amazon sold less PS5 in the 28 February span than the 35 days of January, and while minimum sales at Walmart increased somewhat in February over January, I don't think the overall unit sales increased MOM. I would be thinking February at best matches January for PS5, so ~400K again.

 

[Kowalski]

It wasn't 2:1 in January. I just wasn't confident in putting XBS at a specific value but it was at least 210K, which is why I used > for it and not ~ like PS5 and NSW.

Walmart XBS in January had a lot of the $269 Gilded Hunter bundle which ran out of stock towards the end of February. Target had the Starter bundle at $269 for half of February and a few days at $219, so that should be making up for (if not more than enough) the units "lost" at Walmart.

Also, when looking at both Amazon and Walmart, Amazon sold less PS5 in the 28 February span than the 35 days of January, and while minimum sales at Walmart increased somewhat in February over January, I don't think the overall unit sales increased MOM. I would be thinking February at best matches January for PS5, so ~400K again.

In February, there was a discount on the Spider-Man 2 bundle for $449 for a week in several places, including Walmart. Wouldn't this likely increase PS5 sales significantly? Or was there a limited number of the bundle?

 

[Welfare]

In February, there was a discount on the Spider-Man 2 bundle for $449 for a week in several places, including Walmart. Wouldn't this likely increase PS5 sales significantly? Or was there a limited number of the bundle?

The deal was only active for a few days at the end of the month. Between GameStop, Best Buy, and Walmart, maybe a couple 10K were sold of the $449 SM2 bundles.

 

[salesguy]

It wasn't 2:1 in January. I just wasn't confident in putting XBS at a specific value but it was at least 210K, which is why I used > for it and not ~ like PS5 and NSW.

Walmart XBS in January had a lot of the $269 Gilded Hunter bundle which ran out of stock towards the end of February. Target had the Starter bundle at $269 for half of February and a few days at $219, so that should be making up for (if not more than enough) the units "lost" at Walmart.

Also, when looking at both Amazon and Walmart, Amazon sold less PS5 in the 28 February span than the 35 days of January, and while minimum sales at Walmart increased somewhat in February over January, I don't think the overall unit sales increased MOM. I would be thinking February at best matches January for PS5, so ~400K again.

still incredibly healthy ps5 sales. xbox just seems to have nothing in the tank. i was listening to some guys talk and (i realize this is anecdotal and meaningless) but they talk like ps5 is the only console that existed this gen "when did you get yours, how much did you pay for yours" etc talking about the ps5 shortages. this just wasnt the case before. it's like most laypeople dont even consider xbox anymore.

xbox cant get to a new hardware generation fast enough. really cant. maybe the digital x and a accompanying price cut etc can help i think thats a good move, but overall it's just ugly. well, that and ps5 pro is the next major event assuming it comes out. and i'm not 100% certain it helps ps5 (but it would seem too at a first approximation as nate silver would say). sku's are a weird thing and can upset the apple cart see series s.

i still maintain ps5 won on simplicity (and of course having acceptable although not strictly best in class power, that's a prerequisite). every layperson immediately understand what a ps5 is. xbox name is written in kanji. hell when i ask alexa a xbox question like a release date, she calls it "xbox series x vertical bar S" lol. Like "halo infinite released for Xbox Series X vertical bar S in blah blah blah". Vertical bar. How utterly stupid, this is what you did phil.

 

[GamingCJ]

It wasn't 2:1 in January. I just wasn't confident in putting XBS at a specific value but it was at least 210K, which is why I used > for it and not ~ like PS5 and NSW.

Walmart XBS in January had a lot of the $269 Gilded Hunter bundle which ran out of stock towards the end of February. Target had the Starter bundle at $269 for half of February and a few days at $219, so that should be making up for (if not more than enough) the units "lost" at Walmart.

Also, when looking at both Amazon and Walmart, Amazon sold less PS5 in the 28 February span than the 35 days of January, and while minimum sales at Walmart increased somewhat in February over January, I don't think the overall unit sales increased MOM. I would be thinking February at best matches January for PS5, so ~400K again.

Even if Xbox managed to sell 210k in January, that would be pretty much exactly a 2:1 ratio, with PS5 being somewhere in the 400-450k ballpark.

I don't think a few days of $219 Series S at Target move the needle here. What's the total amount sold in that timeframe, maybe 2k? (Targets market share is lower than Walmarts). Looking at the Walmart numbers, the SM2 PS5 bundle at $449 is the bigger factor here.

Amazon was a big PS5 anomaly for January though, with it being the only place where the SM2 bundle was available for most of the month. Hence Amazon market share will be lower for PS5 in February

Overall, Walmart prices and stock behaved pretty representative for the overall market in January and February.
The PS5 Disc and DE sold close to or even above 1000 units for a big part of the month, at $499, demand was simply strong.

 

[Welfare]

Even if Xbox managed to sell 210k in January, that would be pretty much exactly a 2:1 ratio, with PS5 being somewhere in the 400-450k ballpark.

I don't think a few days of $219 Series S at Target move the needle here. What's the total amount sold in that timeframe, maybe 2k? (Targets market share is lower than Walmarts). Looking at the Walmart numbers, the SM2 PS5 bundle at $449 is the bigger factor here.

Amazon was a big PS5 anomaly for January though, with it being the only place where the SM2 bundle was available for most of the month. Hence Amazon market share will be lower for PS5 in February

Overall, Walmart prices and stock behaved pretty representative for the overall market in January and February.
The PS5 Disc and DE sold close to or even above 1000 units for a big part of the month, at $499, demand was simply strong.

I'm saying Xbox sold more than 210K. The ratio wasn't 2:1. Still large, but not 2:1 large.

At Target, the Series S Starter went from #6 best seller before the deals, behind the PS5, PS5 DE, Switch Neon and OLED White, and Series X, to #1 for 2 weeks straight. It's actually still #1 today even after the $269 deal ended back on the 2nd, meaning the sales gap created there has yet to be reached by any SKU behind it.

Amazon has had a very consistent market share for PS5 between 8-11%, with only 3 months so far being either 7% or 12%. January fell in that range. When the SM2 bundle went out of stock it was quickly replaced by increased sales of the DE and regular Slim. Nothing would indicate Amazon has a much different market share outside of that range for February.

I'm not saying PS5 demand hasn't been strong. It likely sold another ~400K in February which is what the PS4 was doing at the 4th February in 2017.

still incredibly healthy ps5 sales. xbox just seems to have nothing in the tank. i was listening to some guys talk and (i realize this is anecdotal and meaningless) but they talk like ps5 is the only console that existed this gen "when did you get yours, how much did you pay for yours" etc talking about the ps5 shortages. this just wasnt the case before. it's like most laypeople dont even consider xbox anymore.

xbox cant get to a new hardware generation fast enough. really cant. maybe the digital x and a accompanying price cut etc can help i think thats a good move, but overall it's just ugly. well, that and ps5 pro is the next major event assuming it comes out. and i'm not 100% certain it helps ps5 (but it would seem too at a first approximation as nate silver would say). sku's are a weird thing and can upset the apple cart see series s.

i still maintain ps5 won on simplicity (and of course having acceptable although not strictly best in class power, that's a prerequisite). every layperson immediately understand what a ps5 is. xbox name is written in kanji. hell when i ask alexa a xbox question like a release date, she calls it "xbox series x vertical bar S" lol. Like "halo infinite released for Xbox Series X vertical bar S in blah blah blah". Vertical bar. How utterly stupid, this is what you did phil.

Microsoft definitely failed this gen at the start. Confirmed production delays before launch lead to them being behind XB1 in multiple regions, US included, and caused the XBS to be outsold 2:1 in the US for that first quarter 2021. They only then slowly got more units produced after that but focusing on cloud hardware by sacrificing console sales was a blunder and something Phil shouldn't try again. They lost significant potential there where everyone was buying any console that was available, and PS5 simply got more units out faster which helped speed up the typical snowball effect that occurs in a generation.

Add on the complete travesty that was 2022 with no software up to Starfield in September 2023, XBS was just a console that existed for nearly 20 months straight with nothing going on.

 

[GamingCJ]

@Welfare

What's your source for Series consoles selling more than 210k last month? I see nothing indicating that.

You are way overestimating the Target numbers. Series S sells virtually zero units at most big shops. Gamestop, the retailer with the biggest market share has PS5 in #1, #2, #3 and the PSP in #4! Series S is always far down the bestseller list, same with Best Buy and the retailer with the 2nd biggest market share: Walmart, where PS5 is consistenly outselling Series ~3:1 since start of February.
As far as I can see, Target even has PS5 supply issues. I repeat Series S being #1 for a while there is probably below 10k units.

But yes, the SM2 at Amazon was very close to 20k (~19.5k) after 30 days of January, so roughly ~23k accounted for the entire 5 week Circana month. In February it fell to 10k+ (maybe ~11k), so it lost ~12k.
Meanwhile PS5+DE only gained ~7k (from ~11k for full 35-days January to ~18k Februar).
So overall Amazon market share probably dropped by 15-20% in February (e.g. from 9% in Jan to 7.5% in Feb)

Edit:
Looking just at the best selling console charts doesn't show how abysmal Series S are outside of Target and Amazon (at least outside of holidays).
The SM2 bundle is currently 5th best selling item of all Best Buy items, PS5 Slim at #33 (used to be ~#14 before SM2 bundle was discounted), PS5 DE at #52, Series X at ~#60 and Series S at #163. I assume Gamestop will be very similar.

 

[Welfare]

@Welfare

What's your source for Series consoles selling more than 210k last month? I see nothing indicating that.

You do realize I'm the "source" for Xbox even being at least 210K right? It was the absolute minimum Xbox would've been with Switch at ~250K and PS5 ~420K. And here's the math on that.

Total January 2024 revenue: $378M

PS5: 300K PS5 ASP = $495 = $148.5M | 120K DE ASP = $53.4M | Total: 420K ASP = $481 = $201.9M
Switch: 250K ASP = $300 = $75M
XBS: 130K X ASP = $465 = $60.45M | 80K S ASP = $295 = $23.6M | Total = 210K ASP = $400 = $84.05M

Total for all 3 above = $360.95M = $17.05M left over. I typically put Others + PS4 to equal around $10M or less, meaning $7M wiggle room for the other consoles. I would genuinely put that to XBS because I stopped at 210K precisely because that was the 2:1 mark, and getting XBS to at least that much was good enough for a public post on estimates, which was laid out exactly like

PS5: ~420K
NSW: ~250K
XBS: >210K

An additional $7M in revenue for XBS would be 140K X and 90K S = 230K ASP = $398 = $91.65M. That leaves $9.45M for Others + PS4.

You are way overestimating the Target numbers. Series S sells virtually zero units at most big shops. Gamestop, the retailer with the biggest market share has PS5 in #1, #2, #3 and the PSP in #4! Series S is always far down the bestseller list, same with Best Buy and the retailer with the 2nd biggest market share: Walmart, where PS5 is consistenly outselling Series ~3:1 since start of February.
As far as I can see, Target even has PS5 supply issues. I repeat Series S being #1 for a while there is probably below 10k units.

PS5 has zero supply constraints anywhere in the US at any big retailer.

PS5 Amazon lost sales from January to February and if you look at only Walmart minimum sales, the increase there only negates the loss at Amazon.

Xbox would also have that kind of sales negation between Target and Walmart. I'm telling you why Walmart saw a drop in Xbox sales from January to February. January had a bunch of those $269 Gilded Hunter bundles that then became way less available to in February. You can look back at those posts above to see that trend down. Every other main Series S SKU (not including the 2022 Holiday) gained in February. 7K minimum GH bundle was lost due to that drop. I'm just saying, two weeks of sales for the #1 SKU at Target is going to equal somewhere over 7K.

Looking at the ratios for Walmart between both months would only make sense if the market conditions everywhere else also remained the same month to month, but we know that isn't the case. Walmart ran out of the $269 S and Target had the S on sale for $269 for 2 weeks and $219 for a few days. Xbox also saw a very tiny drop in sales over on Amazon month to month, less than what PS5 fell by.

Minimum sales being a 3:1 difference at Walmart in February only happened because of what laid out above. Less units of the $269 S at Walmart, Target had a $269 deal with a crazy $219 deal sprinkled in. Again, Series S Starter went from #6 there to being a clear #1 for two weeks, still registered as #1 days after the sale ended. Target is also a big retailer for video games and is one of two retailers Switch was consistently above PS5 despite the nationwide results being PS5 > NSW. For all of January, Switch was above PS5. Now in February, Xbox and PS5 are above Switch. That alone is indicative of how well the Series S did on sale, for it to have jumped not only over PS5, but Switch at Target.

Edit:
Looking just at the best selling console charts doesn't show how abysmal Series S are outside of Target and Amazon (at least outside of holidays).
The SM2 bundle is currently 5th best selling item of all Best Buy items, PS5 Slim at #33 (used to be ~#14 before SM2 bundle was discounted), PS5 DE at #52, Series X at ~#60 and Series S at #163. I assume Gamestop will be very similar.

That's all in the March period, after the SM2 bundle price drop.

 

[Welfare]

March 2024 - 35 Days
"-" means the SKU didn't register at least 50+ for a day before being tracked.

Xbox

Week	Series S	S Starter	S 1TB	Series X	Total
Mar 03 - Mar 09​	350​	700​	550​	3,500​	5,100​
Mar 10 - Mar 16​	400​	700​	400​	3,500​	5,000​
Mar 17 - Mar 23​	400​	700​	300​	3,500​	4,900​
Mar 24 - Mar 30​	300​	700​	-​	3,500​	4,500​
Mar 31 - Apr 06​	100​	700​	-​	3,500​	4,300​
Total​	1,550​	3,500​	1,250​	17,500​	23,800​

PS5

Week	Standard SM2	Slim	Slim SM2	Slim DE	Slim DE SM2	Total
Mar 03 - Mar 09​	450​	2,700​	7,000​	4,000​	1,500​	15,650​
Mar 10 - Mar 16​	-​	700​	7,000​	700​	6,000​	14,400​
Mar 17 - Mar 23​	-​	650​	7,000​	700​	2,400​	10,750​
Mar 24 - Mar 30​	-​	700​	7,000​	600​	7,000​	15,300​
Mar 31 - Apr 06​	-​	700​	3,100​	700​	6,000​	10,500​
Total​	450​	5,450​	31,100​	6,700​	22,900​	66,600​

Switch

Week	Neon	Mario Kart	White OLED	Neon OLED	Red OLED	Splat 3 OLED	AC Teal Lite	Total
Mar 03 - Mar 09​	700​	-​	700​	-​	-​	-​	700​	2,100​
Mar 10 - Mar 16​	700​	-​	700​	200​	-​	-​	700​	2,300​
Mar 17 - Mar 23​	700​	-​	700​	-​	-​	-​	650​	2,050​
Mar 24 - Mar 30​	700​	-​	700​	50​	200​	200​	700​	2,550​
Mar 31 - Apr 06​	700​	50​	250​	-​	-​	-​	550​	1,550​
Total​	3,500​	50​	3,050​	250​	200​	200​	3,300​	10,550​

Here's every day what each SKU sold. Any dash means that the item sold less than 50 units. The numbers go as follows:

- = wasn't tracking until it sold at least 50
0 = sold out
100c = 100-200 carts
200c = 201 carts or higher (no greater milestone)
50 = 50-100
100 = 101-500
500 = 501-1000
1000 = 1001 or higher (no greater milestone)

Xbox

Day	Series S	S Starter	S 1TB	Series X
Day 1​	50​	100​	100​	500​
Day 2​	50​	100​	50​	500​
Day 3​	200c​	100​	50​	500​
Day 4​	50​	100​	50​	500​
Day 5​	50​	100​	100​	500​
Day 6​	50​	100​	100​	500​
Day 7​	100​	100​	100​	500​
Day 8​	100​	100​	100​	500​
Day 9​	50​	100​	50​	500​
Day 10​	50​	100​	50​	500​
Day 11​	50​	100​	50​	500​
Day 12​	50​	100​	100​	500​
Day 13​	50​	100​	50​	500​
Day 14​	50​	100​	200c​	500​
Day 15​	50​	100​	50​	500​
Day 16​	50​	100​	50​	500​
Day 17​	50​	100​	200c​	500​
Day 18​	50​	100​	50​	500​
Day 19​	200c​	100​	50​	500​
Day 20​	100​	100​	50​	500​
Day 21​	100​	100​	50​	500​
Day 22​	100​	100​	200c​	500​
Day 23​	50​	100​	200c​	500​
Day 24​	50​	100​	200c​	500​
Day 25​	200c​	100​	200c​	500​
Day 26​	200c​	100​	200c​	500​
Day 27​	50​	100​	200c​	500​
Day 28​	50​	100​	200c​	500​
Day 29​	50​	100​	200c​	500​
Day 30​	50​	100​	200c​	500​
Day 31​	200c​	100​	200c​	500​
Day 32​	200c​	100​	200c​	500​
Day 33​	200c​	100​	200c​	500​
Day 34​	200c​	100​	200c​	500​
Day 35​	200c​	100​	200c​	500​

PS5

Day	Standard SM2	Slim	Slim SM2	Slim DE	Slim DE SM2
Day 1​	50​	500​	1000​	1000​	-​
Day 2​	100​	500​	1000​	500​	-​
Day 3​	100​	500​	1000​	500​	-​
Day 4​	100​	500​	1000​	500​	-​
Day 5​	100​	500​	1000​	500​	-​
Day 6​	200c​	100​	1000​	500​	500​
Day 7​	200c​	100​	1000​	500​	1000​
Day 8​	200c​	100​	1000​	100​	500​
Day 9​	200c​	100​	1000​	100​	500​
Day 10​	200c​	100​	1000​	100​	1000​
Day 11​	200c​	100​	1000​	100​	1000​
Day 12​	200c​	100​	1000​	100​	1000​
Day 13​	200c​	100​	1000​	100​	1000​
Day 14​	200c​	100​	1000​	100​	1000​
Day 15​	200c​	100​	1000​	100​	500​
Day 16​	200c​	100​	1000​	100​	100​
Day 17​	200c​	100​	1000​	100​	100​
Day 18​	200c​	100​	1000​	100​	100​
Day 19​	200c​	100​	1000​	100​	100​
Day 20​	200c​	100​	1000​	100​	500​
Day 21​	200c​	50​	1000​	100​	1000​
Day 22​	200c​	100​	1000​	50​	1000​
Day 23​	200c​	100​	1000​	50​	1000​
Day 24​	200c​	100​	1000​	100​	1000​
Day 25​	200c​	100​	1000​	100​	1000​
Day 26​	200c​	100​	1000​	100​	1000​
Day 27​	200c​	100​	1000​	100​	1000​
Day 28​	200c​	100​	1000​	100​	1000​
Day 29​	200c​	100​	500​	100​	1000​
Day 30​	200c​	100​	500​	100​	1000​
Day 31​	200c​	100​	500​	100​	1000​
Day 32​	200c​	100​	500​	100​	1000​
Day 33​	200c​	100​	500​	100​	1000​
Day 34​	200c​	100​	500​	100​	500​
Day 35​	200c​	100​	100​	100​	500​

Switch

Day	Neon	Mario Kart	White OLED	Neon OLED	Red OLED	Splat 3 OLED	AC Teal Lite
Day 1​	100​	-​	100​	-​	-​	-​	100​
Day 2​	100​	-​	100​	-​	-​	-​	100​
Day 3​	100​	-​	100​	-​	-​	-​	100​
Day 4​	100​	-​	100​	-​	-​	-​	100​
Day 5​	100​	-​	100​	-​	-​	-​	100​
Day 6​	100​	-​	100​	-​	-​	-​	100​
Day 7​	100​	-​	100​	-​	-​	-​	100​
Day 8​	100​	-​	100​	50​	-​	-​	100​
Day 9​	100​	-​	100​	50​	-​	-​	100​
Day 10​	100​	-​	100​	200c​	-​	-​	100​
Day 11​	100​	-​	100​	50​	-​	-​	100​
Day 12​	100​	-​	100​	50​	-​	-​	100​
Day 13​	100​	-​	100​	200c​	-​	-​	100​
Day 14​	100​	-​	100​	200c​	-​	-​	100​
Day 15​	100​	-​	100​	200c​	-​	-​	100​
Day 16​	100​	-​	100​	200c​	-​	-​	100​
Day 17​	100​	-​	100​	100c​	-​	-​	50​
Day 18​	100​	-​	100​	100c​	-​	-​	100​
Day 19​	100​	-​	100​	100c​	-​	-​	100​
Day 20​	100​	-​	100​	200c​	-​	-​	100​
Day 21​	100​	-​	100​	200c​	-​	-​	100​
Day 22​	100​	-​	100​	200c​	-​	-​	100​
Day 23​	100​	-​	100​	200c​	-​	-​	100​
Day 24​	100​	-​	100​	200c​	-​	-​	100​
Day 25​	100​	-​	100​	100c​	-​	-​	100​
Day 26​	100​	-​	100​	100c​	-​	-​	100​
Day 27​	100​	-​	100​	100c​	100​	100​	100​
Day 28​	100​	-​	100​	50​	100​	100​	100​
Day 29​	100​	-​	50​	200c​	100c​	50c​	100​
Day 30​	100​	-​	50​	200c​	100c​	50c​	50​
Day 31​	100​	-​	200c​	200c​	50c​	100c​	200c​
Day 32​	100​	-​	200c​	200c​	50c​	100c​	100​
Day 33​	100​	50​	50​	200c​	50c​	100c​	100​
Day 34​	100​	200c​	50​	200c​	50c​	50c​	100​
Day 35​	100​	100c​	50​	200c​	0​	50c​	100​

What I estimate beyond minimum:

PS5: 87,000
XBS: 38,000
Switch: 22,000

Updated market share
Xbox

Month	Minimum Sales	Minimum Market Share
January 2023	+35,000	+16.7%
February 2023	+25,400	+9.8%
March 2023	+9,000	+2.9%
May 2023	+7,200	+5.5%
June 2023	+12,000	+5.5%
September 2023	+15,000	+5.1%
October 2023	+12,000	+6.0%
November 2023	+74,000	+12.8%
December 2023	+115,400	+10.0%
January 2024	+19,250	+8.4%
February 2024	+16,850	+8.4%
March 2024	+23,800

PS5

Month	Minimum Sales	Minimum Market Share
January 2023	+40,000	+9.3%
February 2023	+60,900	+10.7%
March 2023	+67,000	+10.2%
May 2023	+24,700	+8.8%
June 2023	+45,000	+10.5%
September 2023	+38,600	+8.0%
October 2023	+28,100	+8.8%
November 2023	+57,100	+5.5%
December 2023	+117,500	+7.8%
January 2024	+41,650	+9.9%
February 2024	+48,650	+11.9%
March 2024	+66,600

Switch

Month	Minimum Sales	Minimum Market Share
October 2023	+9,600	+4.6%
November 2023	+52,300	+9.2%
December 2023	+111,700	+8.9%
January 2024	+10,050	+4.0%
February 2024	+9,250	+4.0%
March 2024	+10,550

 

[Welfare]

April 2024 - 28 Days
"-" means the SKU didn't register at least 50+ for a day.

Xbox

Week	Series S	S Starter	S 1TB	Series X	Total
Apr 07 - Apr 13​	-​	700​	-​	3,100​	3,800​
Apr 14 - Apr 20​	150​	700​	-​	1,900​	2,750​
Apr 21 - Apr 27​	650​	-​	300​	2,300​	3,250​
Apr 28 - May 04​	650​	300​	500​	1,900​	3,350​
Total​	1,450​	1,700​	800​	9,200​	13,150​

PS5

Week	Slim	Slim SM2	Slim DE	Slim DE SM2	Total
Apr 07 - Apr 13​	700​	700​	700​	1,500​	3,600​
Apr 14 - Apr 20​	700​	1,100​	700​	700​	3,200​
Apr 21 - Apr 27​	700​	1,100​	700​	700​	3,200​
Apr 28 - May 04​	1,900​	700​	1,500​	700​	4,800​
Total​	4,000​	3,600​	3,600​	3,600​	14,800​

Switch

Week	Neon	White OLED	Neon OLED	AC Teal Lite	Total
Apr 07 - Apr 13​	700​	600​	-​	700​	2,000​
Apr 14 - Apr 20​	700​	400​	-​	700​	1,800​
Apr 21 - Apr 27​	700​	700​	-​	500​	1,900​
Apr 28 - May 04​	700​	700​	200​	100​	1,700​
Total​	2,800​	2,400​	200​	2,000​	7,400​

Here's every day what each SKU sold. Any dash means that the item sold less than 50 units. The numbers go as follows:

- = wasn't tracking until it sold at least 50
0 = sold out
100c = 100-200 carts
200c = 201 carts or higher (no greater milestone)
50 = 50-100
100 = 101-500
500 = 501-1000
1000 = 1001 or higher (no greater milestone)

Xbox

Day	Series S	S Starter	S 1TB	Series X
Day 1​	-​	100​	-​	500​
Day 2​	-​	100​	-​	500​
Day 3​	-​	100​	-​	500​
Day 4​	-​	100​	-​	500​
Day 5​	-​	100​	-​	100​
Day 6​	-​	100​	-​	500​
Day 7​	-​	100​	-​	500​
Day 8​	-​	100​	-​	500​
Day 9​	-​	100​	-​	100​
Day 10​	-​	100​	-​	100​
Day 11​	-​	100​	-​	100​
Day 12​	-​	100​	-​	100​
Day 13​	50​	100​	-​	500​
Day 14​	100​	100​	-​	500​
Day 15​	100​	200c​	-​	500​
Day 16​	100​	200c​	-​	500​
Day 17​	50​	200c​	-​	100​
Day 18​	100​	200c​	-​	100​
Day 19​	100​	200c​	100​	100​
Day 20​	100​	200c​	100​	500​
Day 21​	100​	200c​	100​	500​
Day 22​	100​	200c​	200c​	500​
Day 23​	100​	200c​	100​	100​
Day 24​	100​	200c​	100​	100​
Day 25​	100​	200c​	200c​	100​
Day 26​	100​	100​	100​	500​
Day 27​	100​	100​	100​	500​
Day 28​	50​	100​	100​	100​

PS5

Day	Slim	Slim SM2	Slim DE	Slim DE SM2
Day 1​	100​	100​	100​	100​
Day 2​	100​	100​	100​	100​
Day 3​	100​	100​	100​	100​
Day 4​	100​	100​	100​	100​
Day 5​	100​	100​	100​	500​
Day 6​	100​	100​	100​	500​
Day 7​	100​	100​	100​	100​
Day 8​	100​	100​	100​	100​
Day 9​	100​	100​	100​	100​
Day 10​	100​	100​	100​	100​
Day 11​	100​	100​	100​	100​
Day 12​	100​	100​	100​	100​
Day 13​	100​	500​	100​	100​
Day 14​	100​	100​	100​	100​
Day 15​	100​	500​	100​	100​
Day 16​	100​	100​	100​	100​
Day 17​	100​	100​	100​	100​
Day 18​	100​	100​	100​	100​
Day 19​	100​	100​	100​	100​
Day 20​	100​	100​	100​	100​
Day 21​	100​	100​	100​	100​
Day 22​	100​	100​	100​	100​
Day 23​	100​	100​	100​	100​
Day 24​	100​	100​	100​	100​
Day 25​	100​	100​	100​	100​
Day 26​	500​	100​	100​	100​
Day 27​	500​	100​	500​	100​
Day 28​	500​	100​	500​	100​

Switch

Day	Neon	White OLED	Neon OLED	AC Teal Lite
Day 1​	100​	-​	-​	100​
Day 2​	100​	100​	-​	100​
Day 3​	100​	100​	-​	100​
Day 4​	100​	100​	-​	100​
Day 5​	100​	100​	-​	100​
Day 6​	100​	100​	-​	100​
Day 7​	100​	100​	-​	100​
Day 8​	100​	200c​	-​	100​
Day 9​	100​	200c​	-​	100​
Day 10​	100​	200c​	-​	100​
Day 11​	100​	100​	-​	100​
Day 12​	100​	100​	-​	100​
Day 13​	100​	100​	-​	100​
Day 14​	100​	100​	-​	100​
Day 15​	100​	100​	-​	100​
Day 16​	100​	100​	-​	100​
Day 17​	100​	100​	-​	100​
Day 18​	100​	100​	-​	100​
Day 19​	100​	100​	-​	100​
Day 20​	100​	100​	-​	200c​
Day 21​	100​	100​	-​	200c​
Day 22​	100​	100​	-​	200c​
Day 23​	100​	100​	-​	200c​
Day 24​	100​	100​	-​	200c​
Day 25​	100​	100​	-​	200c​
Day 26​	100​	100​	-​	100​
Day 27​	100​	100​	100​	200c​
Day 28​	100​	100​	100​	200c​

What I estimate beyond minimum:

PS5: 36,000
XBS: 20,000
Switch: 14,000

Month	PS5	XBS	Switch
January 2024	66,000	44,000	21,000
February 2024	65,000	29,000	18,000
March 2024	87,000	38,000	22,000
April 2024	36,000	20,000	14,000

Updated market share
Xbox

Month	Minimum Sales	Minimum Market Share
January 2023	+35,000	+16.7%
February 2023	+25,400	+9.8%
March 2023	+9,000	+2.9%
May 2023	+7,200	+5.5%
June 2023	+12,000	+5.5%
September 2023	+15,000	+5.1%
October 2023	+12,000	+6.0%
November 2023	+74,000	+12.8%
December 2023	+115,400	+10.0%
January 2024	+19,250	+8.4%
February 2024	+16,850	+8.4%
March 2024	+23,800	+11.9%
April 2024	+13,150

PS5

Month	Minimum Sales	Minimum Market Share
January 2023	+40,000	+9.3%
February 2023	+60,900	+10.7%
March 2023	+67,000	+10.2%
May 2023	+24,700	+8.8%
June 2023	+45,000	+10.5%
September 2023	+38,600	+8.0%
October 2023	+28,100	+8.8%
November 2023	+57,100	+5.5%
December 2023	+117,500	+7.8%
January 2024	+41,650	+9.9%
February 2024	+48,650	+11.9%
March 2024	+66,600	+12,7%
April 2024	+14,800

Switch

Month	Minimum Sales	Minimum Market Share
October 2023	+9,600	+4.6%
November 2023	+52,300	+9.2%
December 2023	+111,700	+8.9%
January 2024	+10,050	+4.0%
February 2024	+9,250	+4.0%
March 2024	+10,550	+4.5%
April 2024	+7,400