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Road to Switch 2: Is Monolith Soft ready for the next Jump in Sales?

Which of these options would lead to the best sales-result as Monolith Soft's first Switch 2-title?

  • Total voters
    71
  • Poll closed .
Tokuiten

Tokuiten

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Infected with 'Xenoblade'. 御免なさい🙇‍♀️
DISCLAMER: Please read the OP before voting, this is not a "which one do you personally want the most"-poll, but a sales-poll! The fun comes in the discussion! :p Poll-details at the end of this posting.

Hey guys,

I gave this thread a lot of thought as I didn't want it to end up a generic hype-thread, something that IB would be the wrong place to have to begin with. But that's okay, because approaching Monolith Soft's nextgen appearance from a sales perspective is quite exciting, too! And that's the thing: Nintendo revealed the Switch 1 together with Xenoblade 2. It's been very quiet from Monolith Soft for a relatively long time now, so I think, bear with me, it's pretty safe to assume that the Switch 2's reveal will be accompanied by a game-announcement from Monolith Soft, too. Could be wrong, but hey, that's a prediction-thread for you ^^

Before proceeding to the big discussion, let me give a quick overview of Monolith Soft's sales history. As no precise WW-numbers exist for these games, I'm going by what we have or what's found on Wikipedia, so take it with a bit grain of salt, although I personally don't think the overall trajectory would paint a different picture: Xenogears started out with at least 1.19 mio games sold WW, then came Xenosaga 1 with at least 1 mio, from there each sequel sold less, with Xenosaga 3 being the worst-selling entry in the trilogy, neither episode 2 nor 3 broke the 1 mio barrier. Xenoblade 1 on Wii didn't sell 1 mio, either, albeit not too far from it. Xenoblade X is hard to gauge, because despite being the lowest-selling game so far, it also released on the Wii U. There's a fair point to be made that, had the Wii U sold similarly to Wii, X' sales might have been just between Xenoblade 1 and the next game coming up: Xenoblade 2 finally marked Monolith Soft's first nextgen-title for the Switch and it catapulted the company's sales threshold to over 2 mio, with amazing legs pushing it to currently being close to the 3 mio barrier.

That is where the debate starts, if there even can be one: Do you think, Monolith Soft can achieve another explosive jump in sales with their first Switch 2-game? And if so, what TYPE of game do you think would be best suited for that goal?

Now, what is regarded as "explosive jump in sales" is a bit subjective; personally, I'd go for a nice round number and say that the 4 mio barrier is the one to look for. Technically, Monolith Soft haven't reached the 3 mio one, yet, but going from Xenoblade 2's 2.7 mio to 3 mio wouldn't exactly be "explosive" to me. ;> As the disclaimer at the top says, this thread isn't about what game you personally would like to see most from Monolith Soft, but which one you think would help them the most to achieve the best sales result. If anyone is wondering: This is about Monolith Soft's "own" games, ofc, so no Zelda, Animal Crossing or Mario Kart. I picked some carefully chosen options for the poll, but feel free to vote "other" and detail your own idea for the best possible sales achievement. Below, I'll give a little explanation for each poll option:

- Xenoblade 4 (straight forward the next numerical installment in the Xenoblade-franchise. Whether the story is connected to previous installments or not, for marketing purposes it's: Xenoblade continues)
- Xenoblade X (a game still with the Xenoblade-moniker, but quite different in terms of gameplay and feel. Loved by those who played it, not played by many due to Wii U. Whether this would be a port, remaster, remake or else)
- the medival-fantasy, open world, action-rpg (a fresh start in terms of IP, gameplay and else. Intentionally or not, following the crave for medieval-fantasy games like TotK, Elden Ring, Witcher 3 or FF16, with Monolith Soft's own spin on it. Possibly mecha, because you know it)
- a completely new game, no attachment to any past announcements or rumors, but obviously big enough in scale and ambition to raise the sales barrier)
- Xenogears Remake (by some miracle, Takahashi Tetsuya got the IP from Square Enix, the funding from Nintendo, and will at long last fully realize Xenogears in the style of Final Fantasy 7 REMAKE, making this his final project as a developer before retirement)

I'm looking forward to you guys' predictions and opinions. And, ofc, while we're trying to look at it from a sales pov, feel free to voice your hopes and wishes, too. The Switch 2's reveal should be very very close, and so would be Monolith Soft's next game. And, ofc, there's the perfectly valid expectation that NO sales jump will occur, that it isn't even possible, and that it might even be sensible to stay at the current level. No option for that in the poll, though, because we want to answer what COULD lead to raised sales. To a good discussion!
 
a couple of those options are somehow overlapping, but I'd say that Xenoblade reached its roof around 2.5mil and to go ahead of that they need something new
among the "new" I'd go with the medieval actin rpg, because I've seen a lot of interest in those supposed-to-be-real artworks and surely Souls/Elden Ring has demonstrated how attractive that setting could be (not saying they would sell that much lol)

a fresh-air approach will surely benefit them, if their usla open world/high production values/deep-intriguing lore will be there
 
I don't think Xenoblade as is will get any bigger, so I think a new IP with a more approachable combat system is the path forward to achieve better sales.
 
Launching early on the console lifecycle might help the game sales regardless of its nature, as happened with Xenoblade 2. I'd follow the same formula of Xenoblade games (action RPG with open world) but introducing a new IP and enhancing some elements that were discared later on, like mecha.
 
I don't really agree with putting entirely new game as an option. If it can literally just be anything with budget thrown at it, there is 0 reason not to pick that option as it just becomes whatever best case scenario title people can think of.

If Monolith wants to have a step forward in sales they'll have to walk away from Xenoblade imo. Or really change it up which to me just suggests making something different opposed to messing with the formula of a franchise that finally has become a consistent 2m seller after 3 generations.

The open world medieval rpg is their best bet but they'll have to take an axe to a lot of their over complicated systems and visual noise while still maintaining the depth they are known for. Not the easiest task but certainly doable. But there aren't a ton of JRPGs selling 5m+. There has to be some level of reason put forward on projections out of this studio imo.
 
ILikeFeet said:
Anything more open, player driven, and has simpler combat. So an open/semi-open action rpg that doesn't have screen vomit
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Yeah let’s be real, it’s this, and with their incredible expertise and technical abilities, it could be a mega seller.
 
Xenoblade X has a good template for success. Add more online functions and build a big open world and people will definitely buy it. A new IP would be too risky at this point. Better to leave that for after a new successful Xenoblade.
 
ILikeFeet said:
Anything more open, player driven, and has simpler combat. So an open/semi-open action rpg that doesn't have screen vomit
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Agreed. Whether it's the medieval-fantasy ip that might once have existed OR an entirely new game, a more immersive, more interactive experience that, imo, would build upon Xenoblade X, is the way to go. Big question is whether Nintendo would fun it, as it's probably the most expensive option.

Gotdatmoney said:
I don't really agree with putting entirely new game as an option. If it can literally just be anything with budget thrown at it, there is 0 reason not to pick that option as it just becomes whatever best case scenario title people can think of.
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Obviously it's implied that if you choose that option, it excludes the other options.
 
I think the Xenoblade brand is way too limited for them to go past 3-4m copies if that's the goal. It's viewed as having overly complicated gameplay systems and a bunch of weird weeb stuff and that puts a hard cap on your potential audience that Xenoblade has already reached. Doing a new IP like Xenoblade but with simpler systems and without some of the weirdness has the potential to be bigger, but Monolith Soft seems completely uninterested in that and want to make Xenoblade 4 instead.
 
As much as I love the Xeno series, those games have complex/confusing systems and stories that prevent it them from reaching mainstream appeal. I would say a new game not attached to the Xeno lore and systems in any way would have the best chance of a sales jump if designed to appeal to a greater audience.
 
A game like Xenoblade doing 3M is already an insane performance considering its battle system.

If they want to reach way above that, they would probably need to develop a more conventional battle system. Something like Horizon would be cool as a basis, with interactively taking down parts of monsters (of course with their newly developed systems on top of that to keep it interesting and to differentiate it).

But it's always risky to make such a big departure, and personally I love the XB battle system, so I'm fine with them sticking with XB games tbh.
 
How viable do you think it would be for Monolith to lean into the MMO-esque nature of Xenoblade X further for future instalments? I'm imagining a scenario where they release an updated Wii U game that includes more online-focused content, such as raids and squad goals, but sell additional single-player DLC story packs rather than releasing a separate Xenoblade X2, for example.

As I understand it MMOs are hugely expensive to produce and maintain, but Nintendo may want a title that drives interest in their online service. I wonder if they would be able to gain some of the benefits of MMO games without having to commit to the resources required for constant content development.
 
Semajer said:
How viable do you think it would be for Monolith to lean into the MMO-esque nature of Xenoblade X further for future instalments? I'm imagining a scenario where they release an updated Wii U game that includes more online-focused content, such as raids and squad goals, but sell additional single-player DLC story packs rather than releasing a separate Xenoblade X2, for example.

As I understand it MMOs are hugely expensive to produce and maintain, but Nintendo may want a title that drives interest in their online service. I wonder if they would be able to gain some of the benefits of MMO games without having to commit to the resources required for constant content development.
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Way too crowded of a genre to be likely to succeed and way too expensive to make.
 
Semajer said:
How viable do you think it would be for Monolith to lean into the MMO-esque nature of Xenoblade X further for future instalments? I'm imagining a scenario where they release an updated Wii U game that includes more online-focused content, such as raids and squad goals, but sell additional single-player DLC story packs rather than releasing a separate Xenoblade X2, for example.

As I understand it MMOs are hugely expensive to produce and maintain, but Nintendo may want a title that drives interest in their online service. I wonder if they would be able to gain some of the benefits of MMO games without having to commit to the resources required for constant content development.
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rather than go full MMO, they can do some stuff that's more destiny-like and and some large content drops. a bunch of ghost players in your world, some infinite dungeons, and new landmasses. and have a dedicated end date for new content like Splatoon
 
I think they would need a game that has more streamlined combat while also making the player feel like they have a more direct input in what's happening in combat. So I imagine a new IP would be their best bet moving forward. And adding to that, I feel the Xenoblade IP also needs a relatively long rest to avoid becoming stale.
 
If they are going to continue doing Xenoblade. They will need to leave the numbering behind first as having number will often be barrier of entry for newcomers.

I still believe having that battle system is not the problem. With further refinement and further growth from Monolith Soft, new Xenoblade can easily shows growth as well.

But if we are talking easier bet. Doing new IP has better chance of growth as it wont have xenoblade title. It also may backfire though considering new IP= bigger risk after all.

Semajer said:
How viable do you think it would be for Monolith to lean into the MMO-esque nature of Xenoblade X further for future instalments? I'm imagining a scenario where they release an updated Wii U game that includes more online-focused content, such as raids and squad goals, but sell additional single-player DLC story packs rather than releasing a separate Xenoblade X2, for example.

As I understand it MMOs are hugely expensive to produce and maintain, but Nintendo may want a title that drives interest in their online service. I wonder if they would be able to gain some of the benefits of MMO games without having to commit to the resources required for constant content development.
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I can see this actually being successful there. Dont go full MMO but kinda like Destiny. Like do weekly smaller content with like one big expansion every year.

Considering the title will be Switch/Nintendo platform exclusive. It will not need to compete with other big GaaS title on other platform. Also Nintendo of course would love to have audience that locked forever on their NSO system there.
 
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The current Switch was the Monolith explosion.

I don’t see why any Monolith game exclusive to new Switch hardware would sell anywhere near as well as the most recent Xenoblade game.

Now, if you are talking about Xenoblade 4 as a game released on all Swirch hardwrre, old and new, ala Metroid Prime 4? Maybe could reach 5-6 million in sales. Maybe.
 
For biggest sales potential, I guess I'd vote for a brand new, totally disconnected, and also unnumbered Xenoblade title. Xenoblade name to draw people in, but no number or "baggage" so it's crystal clear to everyone that you can jump in without any past knowledge of the series. I suppose having some other new Xeno-name could also work.

And then also release it within 6 months of the Switch 2 while people are thirsty for RPGs on the system, and make sure it gets a new character in the next Smash, lol.
 
Anything Xenoblade related or even Xenoblade style will not sell well. The series isn't seeing any growth sadly, so I wouldn't focus much on that series besides keeping the brand alongside another entire new IP.

It also needs something more accessible and simple, Xenoblade has deep mechanics that will turn anyone except for the most hardcore JRPG fans away.

Also I'm confused why this medieval action RPG is being talked about? Imo this never existed. There was only ever 1 piece of concept art (which every company makes, and they make lots of different ones which mean absolutely nothing), and Monolith never said anything about making a medieval action RPG.
Wasn't it only used with a job listing for an action game? That doesn't tell us anything at all. It could be for literally any Nintendo game, they are after all assisting development of many different games.
 
Ahmed said:
Also I'm confused why this medieval action RPG is being talked about? Imo this never existed. There was only ever 1 piece of concept art (which every company makes, and they make lots of different ones which mean absolutely nothing), and Monolith never said anything about making a medieval action RPG.
Wasn't it only used with a job listing for an action game? That doesn't tell us anything at all. It could be for literally any Nintendo game, they are after all assisting development of many different games.
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There's at least 3 artworks of it: - the knight in some court, a woman with a red dragon flying above, and an overview of some grand city/continent.
 
You know recruitment art isn't necessarily indicative of what a game will look like, (like X's recruitment art ended up looking absolutely nothing like X), insisting on calling this otherwise completely unknown project a medieval game creates expectations that might not end up being met
 
Ahmed said:
Anything Xenoblade related or even Xenoblade style will not sell well. The series isn't seeing any growth sadly, so I wouldn't focus much on that series besides keeping the brand alongside another entire new IP.

It also needs something more accessible and simple, Xenoblade has deep mechanics that will turn anyone except for the most hardcore JRPG fans away.

Also I'm confused why this medieval action RPG is being talked about? Imo this never existed. There was only ever 1 piece of concept art (which every company makes, and they make lots of different ones which mean absolutely nothing), and Monolith never said anything about making a medieval action RPG.
Wasn't it only used with a job listing for an action game? That doesn't tell us anything at all. It could be for literally any Nintendo game, they are after all assisting development of many different games.
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Not seeing growth? It can potentially reach a million sales in Japan only if you look at the trajectory. It has certainly seen growth with Xenoblade 2 and I think that 3 lacked the quality of 2. With enough care I can see the series grow further. Why would a new IP sell better?
 
Seeing one person has now voted for Xenogears REMAKE. Honestly, I'm a bit surprised about the weak poll result for that option. After the latest FF7R2-trailer and demo, don't you think a Xenogears REMAKE in similar manner would be quite the sales magnet?
 
Tokuiten said:
Seeing one person has now voted for Xenogears REMAKE. Honestly, I'm a bit surprised about the weak poll result for that option. After the latest FF7R2-trailer and demo, don't you think a Xenogears REMAKE in similar manner would be quite the sales magnet?
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Nah. It's thematically dense which might hurt some of its appeal. And with SE moving as they are, who'd even make thr game? Because it sure as hell isn't going to be Monolith Soft. But SE is depreciating external development, so it might be internal, if it even gets made and have something of a budget to it
 
ILikeFeet said:
Nah. It's thematically dense which might hurt some of its appeal. And with SE moving as they are, who'd even make thr game? Because it sure as hell isn't going to be Monolith Soft. But SE is depreciating external development, so it might be internal, if it even gets made and have something of a budget to it
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Huh, ofc, Monolith Soft would made it in the given scenario, see OP. Nothing else would make sense, you cannot remake Xenogears without Takahashi Tetsuya.

I dunno. Imagining Xenogears with FF7R2-graphics would be pretty attractive imo. But I guess it'd be the least cost-effective project possible, lol.
 
That visual they released with the chick and the red dragon: I want that game, but I also think that setting could do them really well. It would be a change from their more high tech fantasy games.

But it would require a new action based system that is easier to sell to the average consumer. Some here don’t want to admit that the combat in Xenoblade is not attractive to the average player.

Let monolith tackle a more pure action system with that medieval setting and a semi-open world because I think they could make a really appealing game to the masses.
 
Tokuiten said:
Seeing one person has now voted for Xenogears REMAKE. Honestly, I'm a bit surprised about the weak poll result for that option. After the latest FF7R2-trailer and demo, don't you think a Xenogears REMAKE in similar manner would be quite the sales magnet?
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If we were talking about Japanese sales alone I might have voted for that option (unlikely as I think it is) since the game is surprisingly beloved there. None of the Xeno games since then have managed to match it in sales over there and it ranked at number 40 in that famous TV Asahi poll. Worldwide though? Much tougher proposition
 
Renmazuo said:
If we were talking about Japanese sales alone I might have voted for that option (unlikely as I think it is) since the game is surprisingly beloved there. None of the Xeno games since then have managed to match it in sales over there and it ranked at number 40 in that famous TV Asahi poll. Worldwide though? Much tougher proposition
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Is there a link to the actual footage of that thing? I only see the rankings without any actual point totals from google.
 
Wait why are we acting as if the Xenoblade games havent sold well? This was a franchise that couldnt even hit a million copies years ago. The franchise is an incredble success. Not everything can sell 5 + million and thats okay. Im sure Nintendo knows that and budgets to suit too
 
404LinkNotFound said:
Wait why are we acting as if the Xenoblade games havent sold well? This was a franchise that couldnt even hit a million copies years ago. The franchise is an incredble success. Not everything can sell 5 + million and thats okay. Im sure Nintendo knows that and budgets to suit too
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I think the topic was created to undestand if, after the growth of the second episode, the brand has reached its ceiling and, if so, if Monolith should try something different to find a 3+ million seller (now that Xenoblad seems established as a stable 2+ million seller)
 
404LinkNotFound said:
Wait why are we acting as if the Xenoblade games havent sold well? This was a franchise that couldnt even hit a million copies years ago. The franchise is an incredble success. Not everything can sell 5 + million and thats okay. Im sure Nintendo knows that and budgets to suit too
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If you think 3 mio is the ceiling for Monolith Soft, that's okay, too, see the OP. But the question is basically, which type of game would harbor the best sales results for the upcoming console-generation.
 
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