Media Create Prediction League : November 2023 [FINAL RESULTS!]
- Thread starter Lelouch0612
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- Start date
- Predictions
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- #54
[PS5+PS4] Like a Dragon: Gaiden (4 days) - 117.000
[PS5] PS5 hardware for the Slim launch (7 days) - 100.000
[NSW] Momotaro Dentetsu World (4 days) - 288.000
[NSW] Super Mario RPG (3 days) - 266.000
[NSW] Super Mario Bros. Wonder (35 days) - 372.000
[PS5] PS5 hardware for the Slim launch (7 days) - 100.000
[NSW] Momotaro Dentetsu World (4 days) - 288.000
[NSW] Super Mario RPG (3 days) - 266.000
[NSW] Super Mario Bros. Wonder (35 days) - 372.000
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[PS5+PS4] Like a Dragon: Gaiden (4 days) - 93.213
[PS5] PS5 hardware for the Slim launch (7 days) - 113.222
[NSW] Momotaro Dentetsu World (4 days) - 279.435
[NSW] Super Mario RPG (3 days) - 249.321
[NSW] Super Mario Bros. Wonder (35 days) - 391.323
[PS5] PS5 hardware for the Slim launch (7 days) - 113.222
[NSW] Momotaro Dentetsu World (4 days) - 279.435
[NSW] Super Mario RPG (3 days) - 249.321
[NSW] Super Mario Bros. Wonder (35 days) - 391.323
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- Thread starter
- #57
Less than 30 minutes left !
The results
[PS5+PS4] Like a Dragon: Gaiden (4 days) - 123.453
[PS5] PS5 hardware for the Slim launch (7 days) - 107.953
[NSW] Momotaro Dentetsu World (4 days) - 314.699
[NSW] Super Mario RPG (3 days) - 301.334
[NSW] Super Mario Bros. Wonder (35 days) - 348.701
Like a Dragon was underpredicted by everyone, PS5 Slim launch number underpredicted by a large majority, Momotaro was underpredicted by a notable majority, Mario RPG was spot on and Mario Wonder overpredicted by a notable majority
[PS5+PS4] Like a Dragon: Gaiden (4 days) - 123.453
[PS5] PS5 hardware for the Slim launch (7 days) - 107.953
[NSW] Momotaro Dentetsu World (4 days) - 314.699
[NSW] Super Mario RPG (3 days) - 301.334
[NSW] Super Mario Bros. Wonder (35 days) - 348.701
Like a Dragon was underpredicted by everyone, PS5 Slim launch number underpredicted by a large majority, Momotaro was underpredicted by a notable majority, Mario RPG was spot on and Mario Wonder overpredicted by a notable majority
LAD and PS5 results !
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- #60
[PS5+PS4] Like A Dragon: Gaiden
Like A Dragon: Gaiden came out well above IB expectations. This is an excellent launch for a smaller title in the franchise, very notably above Ishin earlier in the year (86.000 units). One factor often underestimated by our members is pricing, with Gaiden being notably cheaper than usual games in the series. Therefore, the error margin of the IB consensus is 46%.
Congrats to @Lelouch0612 with their good 117.000 units prediction, @Nocturnal and @Iraiza are at #2 and #3. In total, only 2 members were below 10% of error margin.
PS5 Hardware during the Slim launch week
PS5 came out above IB expectations. With around 89.000 units sold at launch, the error margin of the IB consensus is this time 17,7%.
Congrats to @Damage2 with their extremely impresive 107.900 units prediction, @Chris1964 and @Joxer are also close and round up the podium very nicely. In total, 16 members were below 10% of error margin, big congrats to them !
Like A Dragon: Gaiden came out well above IB expectations. This is an excellent launch for a smaller title in the franchise, very notably above Ishin earlier in the year (86.000 units). One factor often underestimated by our members is pricing, with Gaiden being notably cheaper than usual games in the series. Therefore, the error margin of the IB consensus is 46%.
Congrats to @Lelouch0612 with their good 117.000 units prediction, @Nocturnal and @Iraiza are at #2 and #3. In total, only 2 members were below 10% of error margin.
PS5 Hardware during the Slim launch week
PS5 came out above IB expectations. With around 89.000 units sold at launch, the error margin of the IB consensus is this time 17,7%.
Congrats to @Damage2 with their extremely impresive 107.900 units prediction, @Chris1964 and @Joxer are also close and round up the podium very nicely. In total, 16 members were below 10% of error margin, big congrats to them !
Momotaro, SMPRG and Wonder results
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- Thread starter
- #61
[NSW] Momotaro Densetsu: World
Momotaro Densetsu: World came out a bit above IB expectations. This is an good launch for the sequel of 2020's breakout hit. With around 315.000 units at launch, the error margin of the IB consensus is a very good 4,7%.
Congrats to @kyo2004 with their excellent 312.000 units prediction, @brutaka3 and @Fatih_656 are tied at #2. In total, only 19 members were below 10% of error margin.
Super Mario RPG
Super Mario RPG came right on point with IB expectations. With around 301.000 units sold at launch, the error margin of the IB consensus is this time a very impressive 0,4%.
Congrats to @Malden and @BTB123 with their similarly impresive 300.000 units prediction, @Ystad rounds up the podium very nicely. In total, 15 members were below 10% of error margin, big congrats to them !
Super Mario Bros. Wonder
Wonder came a bit below IB expectations. With around 349.000 units sold at launch, the error margin of the IB consensus is 9,0%.
Congrats to @Aleh, @brutaka3, @Joxer, @RavensShade and @Yeshua which are all tied at #1 with their excellent 350.000 units prediction. In total, 25 members were below 10% of error margin, big congrats to them !
Momotaro Densetsu: World came out a bit above IB expectations. This is an good launch for the sequel of 2020's breakout hit. With around 315.000 units at launch, the error margin of the IB consensus is a very good 4,7%.
Congrats to @kyo2004 with their excellent 312.000 units prediction, @brutaka3 and @Fatih_656 are tied at #2. In total, only 19 members were below 10% of error margin.
Super Mario RPG
Super Mario RPG came right on point with IB expectations. With around 301.000 units sold at launch, the error margin of the IB consensus is this time a very impressive 0,4%.
Congrats to @Malden and @BTB123 with their similarly impresive 300.000 units prediction, @Ystad rounds up the podium very nicely. In total, 15 members were below 10% of error margin, big congrats to them !
Super Mario Bros. Wonder
Wonder came a bit below IB expectations. With around 349.000 units sold at launch, the error margin of the IB consensus is 9,0%.
Congrats to @Aleh, @brutaka3, @Joxer, @RavensShade and @Yeshua which are all tied at #1 with their excellent 350.000 units prediction. In total, 25 members were below 10% of error margin, big congrats to them !
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Final results
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- Thread starter
- #62
Congrats to @Damage2 for being the top predictor of the month (after an already excellent #2 position last month) and to @Lelouch0612 and @Nocturnal who round up the podium very nicely. It was a pretty good month with 20 predictors below 20% error margin, in addition to the IB Consensus.
Overall the IB consensus was really solid, at #14 for the month, with a 15,5% error margin on average. That's a good recovery after a tough October!
Congrats and thanks everyone !
Were you expecting over 200k every single week?
Haha. My prediction is namba one as well baby.... from bottom.T_T
I actually did thanks to NSMB Wii being a thing.
In retrospect, based on passed patterns, I feel like SMBW is kinda underperforming. Yes, digital is a major thing now but even when accounting for that, the totals at retail seem low.