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GDC Rumor: World of Warcraft Subscriber Trends - 7.25M Current Subscriptions

Vena

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This was an interesting bit of data coming out from GDC on WoW. We don't often discuss MMOs so I thought this was an interesting thread to have. We may also want to think about putting up a general market research thread on MMOs but I'd need some help with any interested MMOers to help fill out information!

Otherwise, it looks like WoW has recovered quite well from Shadowlands. I don't play WoW but I had heard that this expac was... terrible and had dented the game quite a bit!

bellular_subnumbers.jpg


And since I originally saw this on Era, I should thank the people who posted it there in fairness to credit, so that would be Sabin and stopmrdomino.
 
That's quite the uptick. I haven't properly kept up with WoW for years but hard to believe Shadowlands did such damage to it, I remember reading about the lore being controversial but that is something else.

Would love to see a graph from the beginning if numbers were available because iirc WoTlK was peak WoW popularity? I played from TBC through to Cataclysm and I know it seemed wildly popular around that time.
 
Guild discord was just talking about this. Assuming true, had no idea it dropped that low. I don't mind dragonflight though wasn't fond of shadowlands.

@Kresnik it peaked around 12 million during WotLK which remains it's highest. My guild leader likes these sorts of graphs. Wonder if he has one. Must find out for science.
 
That's quite the uptick. I haven't properly kept up with WoW for years but hard to believe Shadowlands did such damage to it, I remember reading about the lore being controversial but that is something else.

Shadowlands was not only the worse expansion ever but it came off the back of BFA which was a weaker expansion than Legion itself. Two bad expansions in a row is incredibly damaging, especially for a game that has been out for a long time. It is extremely painful for a MMO to lose long term players when new player acquisition is not so simple.

Edit: As for what caused it, they have a good slide to explain it here in this same presentation:

lessons-learned-from-shadowlands-blizzard-at-gdc-v0-fusnl0yzm6qc1.jpeg



Story
Essentially, the afterlife setting and how it related to the world was just not as appealing to just seeing a normal new continent.
The Jailer(big bad of the expansion) was horrendously introduced and his motivations as well as his influence over WC3 and WoTLK lore(retcon) was very poorly done.
Missed opportunities to show old dead characters, some of them were missing entirely or badly used. Same with the current mainstay characters, some of them were kind of missing.

Gameplay
Borrowed Power after Legion and BFA was at a boiling point with the community, having another new treadmill every expansion was not a great idea and it blew up in their face something fierce with Shadowlands.
Content was not varied.

Community
Large gaps between the the 9.0/9.1/9.2 patches, probably COVID related and whatever the hell was going on at Blizzard at the time.
Lack of transparency was incredibly demoralizing, the playerbase never was told why X and Y changes were made and if they knew the WoW team was aware of their concerns.
DF and Season of Dicovery now have whole ass powerpoints presentations where they explain the changes, why they're doing it and even have pre-answers about potential pitfalls that might arise and how they're keeping an eye on things insead of saying: Here's a feature, you've tested it in the beta and saw something issues? We're not going to talk about that.

So yeah, WoW team has learned that players like to know when things happen, why they happen and they're more forgiving if you tell them what level of confidence you're at with any particular change and/or feature and it needs more improvement.






Would love to see a graph from the beginning if numbers were available because iirc WoTlK was peak WoW popularity? I played from TBC through to Cataclysm and I know it seemed wildly popular around that time.


Official numbers are available pre-WoD debacle(the expansion started at 10M with the hype from the cinematic and plumetted down to 5.5M-5.XM near the end). This is when they've stopped talking about sub numbers in any capacity.

wow-subscriptions-historical-2005-2015-p.webp
 
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The Shadowlands pre patch with Chromie Time is the single best thing to happen to the game in a decade at least. A monumental change that people chalk up to neither expansion even if it is the big 9.0 patch.

Shadowlands got a COVID winter boost to launch but also had no hope of keeping them post vaccines, on top of the other problems.

Classic being counter cyclical has helped a lot. Shadowlands and BFA plunge would have been worse without it.
 
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Guild discord was just talking about this. Assuming true, had no idea it dropped that low. I don't mind dragonflight though wasn't fond of shadowlands.

@Kresnik it peaked around 12 million during WotLK which remains it's highest. My guild leader likes these sorts of graphs. Wonder if he has one. Must find out for science.

That lowest part of Shadowlands around 4.5M~ must've been incredibly scary for the WoW team considering that it's only 500k~ more than BFA's worst period.
We have to all remember that this period saw the release of TBC and WotlK Classic which helped prevent a complete freefall compared to BFA.

So is this just people playing retail or is it also counting the various Classic offshoots?

The sub numbers is everything combined, so WoW is nowhere near Legion/BFA retail numbers(at least during their launch spike) but its recovery have been achieved from the Shadowlands disaster.

Something worth pointing out is that Dragonflight has been able to retain more players post launch than any other modern expansion. The drop off has been less steep.
In my opinion this has a lot to do with more varied types of content and things to do within the retail game but also players not having some ridiculous borrowed power mechanic that sours them on the game quicker due to them feeling like they HAVE to grind whatever boring content they don't want to do but feel forced to stay relevant.
 


This was an interesting bit of data coming out from GDC on WoW. We don't often discuss MMOs so I thought this was an interesting thread to have. We may also want to think about putting up a general market research thread on MMOs but I'd need some help with any interested MMOers to help fill out information!

Otherwise, it looks like WoW has recovered quite well from Shadowlands. I don't play WoW but I had heard that this expac was... terrible and had dented the game quite a bit!

bellular_subnumbers.jpg


And since I originally saw this on Era, I should thank the people who posted it there in fairness to credit, so that would be Sabin and stopmrdomino.


This graph's numbers are not certain. Its all based on assumption that the yellow line is 5.8M when there is no clear answer from Blizzard on what the sub numbers were back then.

The investor call is unclear if it is referring to subs or revenue.

Iirc the last number was 5.5M a year before where this graph starts and the sub count was dropping rapidly.
 
This graph's numbers are not certain. Its all based on assumption that the yellow line is 5.8M when there is no clear answer from Blizzard on what the sub numbers were back then.

Iirc the last number was 5.5M a year before where this graph starts and the sub count was dropping rapidly.

I agree with you that the numbers are not certain, more a guesstimate, even if there's more than one supporting data points unrelated to the graph itself. But even with imprecise numbers/and a greater margin of error than usual, I think it's good enough to talk about the general trend of the game.

After Shadowlands, depending on what happened next, there was a real timeline in which the future of WoW was in serious jeopardy. Which would've been wild to entertain just a few years prior.

It also speaks to the strength of WoW's pull as a game.
It can have two bad expansions spanning from August 2018(BFA Launch) to November 2022(Dragonflight launch) and not be completely dead. Most GaaS would've been K.O'd by years of products being perceived THAT negatively by the community.
 
It also speaks to the strength of WoW's pull as a game.
It can have two bad expansions spanning from August 2018(BFA Launch) to November 2022(Dragonflight launch) and not be completely dead. Most GaaS would've been K.O'd by years of products being perceived THAT negatively by the community.
Also bear in mind that Blizzard’s reputation completely collapsed over that time you mentioned as well, with one major incident per year. That definitely had an influence, and the fact that WoW has managed to recover is astonishing.
 
Also bear in mind that Blizzard’s reputation completely collapsed over that time you mentioned as well, with one major incident per year. That definitely had an influence, and the fact that WoW has managed to recover is astonishing.

Absolutely, the way they did communication(basically only talked about what they wanted to talk and ignored everything else) must've been partially as a result of whatever internal turmoil was going within Blizzard.

WoW team went from only announcing things and sometime gas lighting their fans about why their decision(s) were good for the game in Shadowlands.
Then things changed and suddenly you had clearly defined roadmaps, devs being more open in interviews with content creators, being more frank about features/balance and how they felt about where they were at.
They even felt confident in sometime dropping hints and teases about things for the next patch cycle.

For basically the entirety of the first year schedule of Dragonflight, content creators and long timeplayers were having the same reaction: This degree of communication is possible? Surely I'll wake up and Blizzard is going to start fucking up major features and things, but no, the regression never happened.
Nothing bad in DF has ever been as bad as the worse features/decisions from Legion/BFA/Shadowlands.

Dragonflight was WoW's most important expansion to not fuck things up and they were able to mostly achieve it.
Recovery and growth is not over though, the 2nd most important expansion is coming up next.
The War Within is VERY important to get right, especially in terms of tone/story because it's a Part 1 of a trilogy.
If people REALLY like this expansion, they're going to be much more likely to continue on in Midnight and/or The Last Titan to see the storyline through.
The War Within is continuing with DF's core gameplay refinement, breaking down old tech barriers(cross character progression with Warbands) and adding more QoL features that player have been waiting for quite some time.

But I will say, Midnight(the expansion after) probably will need a true "You've got to play THIS" major expansion defining feature to continue that upward trajectory.
This has not been present in DF and is not there with TWW as well.


In the near future, Retail will have to perform better because I have a sneaking suspicion that Cataclysm will see a sizable regression in terms of players compared to TBC+WotLK. That would only continue on if they decide to also do the Mists of Pandaria expansion.
There's also still a big question mark as to what Blizzard will do after Season of Discovery, so many directions they can go for, but some of the ideas would require a far bigger team than the skeleton crew they currently have working on SoD.
 
This graph's numbers are not certain. Its all based on assumption that the yellow line is 5.8M when there is no clear answer from Blizzard on what the sub numbers were back then.

The investor call is unclear if it is referring to subs or revenue.

Iirc the last number was 5.5M a year before where this graph starts and the sub count was dropping rapidly.

For posterity, I updated the thread title to say "Rumor" as well.
 
As a total WoW-noob: Have there ever been musings about a proper "World of Warcraft 2" or is that completely not-happening? Seems like a real sequel could be really hype, "real sequel" like FF11 -> FF14 I mean.
Not that I've ever heard anyway. I've heard folks wanting a Warcraft 4 at best.
 
As a total WoW-noob: Have there ever been musings about a proper "World of Warcraft 2" or is that completely not-happening? Seems like a real sequel could be really hype, "real sequel" like FF11 -> FF14 I mean.

Never any serious considerations. WoW has been their consistent(well there's been a few bumps) cash cow, taking a gamble on such a project is probably not advisable.

The only thing close to another MMO with Blizzard was Project Titan(new IP) before it was scrapped, the project then became Overwatch.
 
BFA wasn’t a bad expansion, it just wasn’t a compelling story and horde players felt burned again with a mop 2.0 storyline.

But BFA 8.2 and onwards was a masterful expansion. The lands, continents, lore, raids, dungeons. Everything was top notch. Covid did hurt the last patch with reused zones (vale and uldum) but visions were loads of fun and I really had a great time overall.
 
As a total WoW-noob: Have there ever been musings about a proper "World of Warcraft 2" or is that completely not-happening? Seems like a real sequel could be really hype, "real sequel" like FF11 -> FF14 I mean.
In the past I’ve suggested they should do a whole sequel you look at the GAAS market and some of the dips WoW has seen - I instead think they should do incremental updates/upgrade to modernise the visuals but beyond that - leave as is and continue with their development cycle.
 
As a total WoW-noob: Have there ever been musings about a proper "World of Warcraft 2" or is that completely not-happening? Seems like a real sequel could be really hype, "real sequel" like FF11 -> FF14 I mean.

Sub MMO sequels are cursed and basically never work or really meet expectations. The one main example that worked ever is FF14 and that started as a huge failure but FF11 being the most successful game in company history made SE pull resources from every other project to fix it.

I'm not convinced these numbers are right, but no other MMO has EVER had 2M subscribers. Even below one million was enough to make FF11 the highest grossing SE game ever by the time 14 was out.
 
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BFA wasn’t a bad expansion, it just wasn’t a compelling story and horde players felt burned again with a mop 2.0 storyline.But BFA 8.2 and onwards was a masterful expansion. The lands, continents, lore, raids, dungeons. Everything was top notch. Covid did hurt the last patch with reused zones (vale and uldum) but visions were loads of fun and I really had a great time overall.
I was listening to the latest PoddyC podcast with Liquid Maximum and he touched a bit on this and even agreed with your particular take here about end BFA.
Legion, BFA, Shadowlands, in large part due to the nature of their expansion wide borrowed power, caused enough player friction to have people leave quite early in the expansion for various reasons.
Things DID get better as the new expansion systems were refined and the pain point(s) reduced.
But he pointed out that it felt rather counter productive that the expansion's best seasons were often near the end, where the least amount of players would be experiencing it.

Reducing player attrition through the first season(s) like what happened with DF is a much more desirable stable outcome. I don't know if they can replicate that again with TWW, but I'm sure they're hoping for that.


If these numbers are even close to accurate that’s super impressive IMO. A proper classic plus will absolute boost these numbers significantly.

Yeah the whole Classic division is a big ???? to me after Cataclysm Classic, there's so many routes they go down, but probably not all options are available to the Classic teamd epending on how much resources they will have access to.
The retail team parallel development is even more aggressive and they are trying to deliver expansions quicker(probably 18 months~ instead of 24~) and do a trilogy story arc. That's going to take a lot of manpower and effort.
Honestly seeing the content cadence for DF and them basically saying, yeah we're going to zoom at the same speed maybe even faster is wild to me. I know their hired so many more people for DF and beyond but still.

In the past I’ve suggested they should do a whole sequel you look at the GAAS market and some of the dips WoW has seen - I instead think they should do incremental updates/upgrade to modernise the visuals but beyond that - leave as is and continue with their development cycle.
DF has shown that there's the possibility for WoW to have less dips post expansion launch, a much more aggressive patch release cadence is clearly keeping people subbed at better rate/length of time over the course of the expansion.
Sub MMO sequels are cursed and basically never work or really meet expectations. The one main example that worked ever is FF14 and that started as a huge failure but FF11 being the most successful game in company history made SE pull resources from every other project to fix it
There's also the difference in that WoW folks still want WoW and not a different setting than FF11 --->
FF14.
Doing some sort of huge sequel project like this when you're not introducing a new world and keeping the same lore seems like an awful lot of work that's better served just continuing doing what you've been doing.

I also question current's Blizzard ability to ship new games tbh, so many cancellations of games in the last few years that never seen the light of day.
I'm not convinced these numbers are right, but no other MMO has EVER had 2M subscribers. Even below one million was enough to make FF11 the highest grossing SE game ever by the time 14 was out.

WoW vs FFXIV Endwalker(released in Dec 2021) around early 2022 was probably the closest any MMO got to WoW's sub count in its history.
Considering WoW had TBC, I would not be surprised if FF XIV and Shadowlands by itself were farly close in terms of MAUs for a 1-2 month period where everyone was doing the Endwalker Main Story Quest.
Again, real dark times for WoW around that time.
 
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WoW vs FFXIV Endwalker(released in Dec 2021) around early 2022 was probably the closest any MMO got to WoW's sub count in its history.
Considering WoW had TBC, I would not be surprised if FF XIV and Shadowlands by itself were pretty neck and neck in terms of MAUs for a 1-2 month period where everyone was doing the Endwalker MSQ.
Again, real dark times for WoW around that time.

FF14 had a good thing going when it was countercyclical to WoW. It now being synced by year and with WoW doing a better job of managing content than any point in history, plus Classic alternate modes, plus the mod arcade that Plunderstorm is just the first part of, might seriously impact FF14.
 
FF14 had a good thing going when it was countercyclical to WoW. It now being synced by year and with WoW doing a better job of managing content than any point in history, plus Classic alternate modes, plus the mod arcade that Plunderstorm is just the first part of, might seriously impact FF14.

WoW doing more little fun things during the course of an expansion because they're not running around like headless chickens trying to douse fires popping left and right in terms of game design is an incredible boon for the future.

Also seeing the WoW team do an experiment like Plunderstorm(and quite likely more of these down the line) when the motto of Blizzard for the longest time has always been "It'll be ready when ready, delay it otherwise" is quite a change having been following/playing Blizzard games and WoW since forever.

Although I will say, they should probably do pure PvE one(s) next(like that rumoured Vampire Survivor thing that had been datamined previously) instead of a BR. WoW players being forced to PvP for progression and cosmetics is never going to go down well with everyone(as seen by some of the negative discourse surrounding the event).


Also, you forgot the biggest impact(I'm only half joking here).
The return of Chris "Green Jesus" Metzen in more than just a consultant fashion.
He's probably the only MMO game figure that might be loved as in the same realm as Yoshi-P.
When I saw him on stage at the last Blizzcon and saw the crowd just hanging and laughing at his words even when he was doing big word salads that didn't mean much and seeing the reaction(online as well) I knew people were getting reeled back in.

All the other public facing figures for WoW just don't have the public speaking skills and charisma he has.
Admitelly Ion Hazzikosta (Game Director) is getting better now that he doesn't look like a zombie that hates his job and is cracking jokes here and there.
But John Hight(General Manager) is so whatever.
Holly Longdale(Executive Producer) is sort of okay in that cringe relatable way but that vibe is better in small doses, it can't last too long.


If Yoshi P wants to boost sub numbers for XIV he'd be wise to target Switch 2 for 8.0's launch.
In general, I do wonder about Switch 2 MMO support compared to Switch 1 which basically had none.
One would think a few would try to get such a version running, especially the older ones.
 
The best FFXIV ever did was about a third of WoW's worse. They were never neck and neck and Square Enix messaging around "accounts created" versus actual active users was part of the reason many people believed they were close (or that FXIV had overtaken it)

Also a big chunk of WoW subscribers were in China, now that there's a new partnership just in time for the end of DF and the start of TWW, expect numbers to rise again.
 
Also a big chunk of WoW subscribers were in China, now that there's a new partnership just in time for the end of DF and the start of TWW, expect numbers to rise again.

I do wonder if Chinese numbers are and were ever on those graphs?
I don't see any regression around the Jan 2023 time where we should be seeing it due to Blizzard/NetEase closing the services at that time.

Also, do you have any link to the return to China?
I heard they were working on it but has the deal been finalized or anything yet?
 
Wow, this is amazing. I'd never thought we'd ever get official subscriber numbers from Blizzard since the time they stopped reporting them when subs tanked during Warlords of Draenor. (edit: I jumped the gun, these are not official numbers, thanks evilnemesis8)

As a total WoW-noob: Have there ever been musings about a proper "World of Warcraft 2" or is that completely not-happening? Seems like a real sequel could be really hype, "real sequel" like FF11 -> FF14 I mean.
Way back when World of Warcraft first came out, its main competitor was EverQuest 2, which released the same month (November 2004). Gaming publications frequently compared the two, with some suggesting that the more established EQ2 would beat WoW since Blizzard was, at the time, merely an upstart in the MMO space. So why did World of Warcraft crush EverQuest 2? Well, there are multiple reasons, but one big one was that the EverQuest playerbase was split. Many opted to stay with EverQuest 1 instead of moving on to 2 (many people couldn't even play EQ2 due to its high system requirements). So if I were a Blizzard executive, and I knew my product was extremely successful due in part to my competitor making a numbered sequel.....I'd avoid doing that at all costs. Their sub numbers aren't even that bad - 7+ million for a 20 year old game - so launching a WoW2 would be taking a huge risk for little reward.

If Yoshi P wants to boost sub numbers for XIV he'd be wise to target Switch 2 for 8.0's launch

Hey, it's got DC Universe Online! Seriously. I was really surprised to learn an MMO that old was on Switch.
 
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Wow, this is amazing. I'd never thought we'd ever get official subscriber numbers from Blizzard since the time they stopped reporting them when subs tanked during Warlords of Draenor.

It's not really official numbers, more an estimations by Bellular based on past a bunch of earnings reports as well as the last sub counts numbers and extrapolating from there.
But it's true that we actually have a graph and the trend lines since legion, something we hadn't had since part way in WoD in 2015 like you mentioned. Man, just typing this makes me feel old, WoD is almost 10 years old at this point...

Honestly, I can't wait for the GDC video to be uploaded.
I'm sure there's a lot more slides as well as additional context surrounding those from the spoken words accompanying them.
 
I think the big thing WoW has going for it is the huge latent userbase who are willing to come back if the right corcumstances arrive. Whilst the game peaked at 12.5 million subscribers the amount of people who have played the game is FAR higher than that. Also generally people who have played WoW have been very invested whilst they’re involved.

I know tons of people who would jump back in given the right circumstances.
 
I do find it impressive - even with the many more competitors right now for gaming time and other MMOs - WoW is able to maintain a relatively high MAU being on a single platform (PC). Even games like FF has multiple platforms and "free until certain level", while I don't think WoW F2P at all. That 12.5m peak was in 2011 - even before the rise of proper multiplatform GaaS games.

As a total WoW-noob: Have there ever been musings about a proper "World of Warcraft 2" or is that completely not-happening? Seems like a real sequel could be really hype, "real sequel" like FF11 -> FF14 I mean.
I don't think that ever happening - too much risk for a little reward. WoW classic launch and continuous WoW mainline expansions are as close we can get at this point. And I don't really think it is worth it. History told that unless the new version launches close enough to the original - it will do nothing aside fragmenting the community.
 
I agree with you that the numbers are not certain, more a guesstimate, even if there's more than one supporting data points unrelated to the graph itself. But even with imprecise numbers/and a greater margin of error than usual, I think it's good enough to talk about the general trend of the game.

After Shadowlands, depending on what happened next, there was a real timeline in which the future of WoW was in serious jeopardy. Which would've been wild to entertain just a few years prior.

It also speaks to the strength of WoW's pull as a game.
It can have two bad expansions spanning from August 2018(BFA Launch) to November 2022(Dragonflight launch) and not be completely dead. Most GaaS would've been K.O'd by years of products being perceived THAT negatively by the community.

Well, the absolute numbers frame the discussion. If the numbers were 4-5M, the discussion would be very different no?

Another question, WoW is huge in China, this graph takes place when it got pulled from China, is said loss of millions of subs reflected here? Did they remove Chinese subs from this graph?

On a relative basis from end of 2016 I think this graph spells it better:
wGnTR7d.png


The only thing that seems to have a big effect stopping bleeding is WoW Classic. The new expansion however as noted had bucked the trend, I don't know WoW to say why exactly.

However whats going to happen when they run out of the popular Classic expansions?
 
WoW is able to maintain a relatively high MAU being on a single platform (PC). Even games like FF has multiple platforms and "free until certain level",
The Insomniac leak showed surprisingly little of FFXIV's revenue came from console though. LTD it's made less on console than even SFV did for example.

I think for MMORPGs it's more that globally PC is the only platform that really matters (bar mobile). Only exception might be DQX but that's almost singularly regionally targeted to console heavy Japan and isn't exactly a huge title either.
 
The Insomniac leak showed surprisingly little of FFXIV's revenue came from console though. LTD it's made less on console than even SFV did for example.

I think for MMORPGs it's more that globally PC is the only platform that really matters (bar mobile). Only exception might be DQX but that's almost singularly regionally targeted to console heavy Japan and isn't exactly a huge title either.
Wait, I don't remember seeing anything about FFXIV in the Insomniac leak. Can you point me to the relevant documents?
 
Well, the absolute numbers frame the discussion. If the numbers were 4-5M, the discussion would be very different no?

Another question, WoW is huge in China, this graph takes place when it got pulled from China, is said loss of millions of subs reflected here? Did they remove Chinese subs from this graph?

On a relative basis from end of 2016 I think this graph spells it better:
wGnTR7d.png


The only thing that seems to have a big effect stopping bleeding is WoW Classic. The new expansion however as noted had bucked the trend, I don't know WoW to say why exactly.

However whats going to happen when they run out of the popular Classic expansions?
Given that we're currently in the expansion released in 2010, with more expansions planned for the base game, how is this expected to happen? Unless you're referring to 10 years or more, which would imply that WoW Classic still has over a decade left. If "War Within" is assumed to be the final expansion, there are at least 7 more expansions yet to be released for WoW Classic.
 
Given that we're currently in the expansion released in 2010, with more expansions planned for the base game, how is this expected to happen? Unless you're referring to 10 years or more, which would imply that WoW Classic still has over a decade left. If "War Within" is assumed to be the final expansion, there are at least 7 more expansions yet to be released for WoW Classic.

The popularity of those prior expansions took a big decline starting with Cataclysm, sure they can continue up till WoD but won't they be seeing increasingly diminishing returns.
 
The Insomniac leak showed surprisingly little of FFXIV's revenue came from console though. LTD it's made less on console than even SFV did for example.

I think for MMORPGs it's more that globally PC is the only platform that really matters (bar mobile). Only exception might be DQX but that's almost singularly regionally targeted to console heavy Japan and isn't exactly a huge title either.
Well I guess a lot of MMOs are basically PC centric stuff that rarely come to consoles I guess it created a whole set of people who never experienced MMOs that much on consoles and do not care about them there. I guess PC is also better at paying monthly for subs, while mobile is all about F2P.
 
People always overstate how bad an expansion is

Cataclysm was called the worst expansion ever with green Jesus and yet here we are.

WoD condensed over 12 months would be seen as an amazing experience with some of the best raids ever made by Blizzard.

Likewise a 12 months BFA with all the grinding eased and fixed would be highly praised

There’s no salvaging Shadowlands storyline but zones and raids were nice and innovative. A 9-12 months long cycle would probably ease it too

It’s the last patch cycle that often sees big declines because they typically last a whole year.

Also I have a soft spot for Shadowlands as the raids were loads of fun
 
People always overstate how bad an expansion is

Cataclysm was called the worst expansion ever with green Jesus and yet here we are.

WoD condensed over 12 months would be seen as an amazing experience with some of the best raids ever made by Blizzard.

Likewise a 12 months BFA with all the grinding eased and fixed would be highly praised

There’s no salvaging Shadowlands storyline but zones and raids were nice and innovative. A 9-12 months long cycle would probably ease it too

It’s the last patch cycle that often sees big declines because they typically last a whole year.

Also I have a soft spot for Shadowlands as the raids were loads of fun

Also, the revised leveling experience that came with Shadowlands is I think fundamental to the game rebounding. Being able to catch up and experiment with new classes is a huge draw.

People view expansions too much by the content schtedule and not the overall system updates that come with them. The game has gotten better cycle by cycle.
 
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People always overstate how bad an expansion is

Cataclysm was called the worst expansion ever with green Jesus and yet here we are.
WoD condensed over 12 months would be seen as an amazing experience with some of the best raids ever made by Blizzard.
Yeah content cadence is really important.
TBC/Wotlk/Cataclysm had painfully long back half of the expansion seasons.
I do remember remaking new arena teams constantly during the eternally long Season 3 of Arena(same with Season 8 of WotlK).
Cataclysm was the first to see big falls as the expansion progressed, followed by a even steeper curve with MoP and let's not get into WoD.

The graph does show us that modern WoW is more steep in its decline post Season 1 compared to pre-WoD.
Raiding/Mythic+ numbers from Season 2 and Season 3 DF(and the graph) also shows us its possible to not have those big valleys.

Also, the revised leveling experience that came with Shadowlands is I think fundamental to the game rebounding. Being able to catch up and experiment with new classes is a huge draw.

People view expansions by content schthen. and not the overall system updates that come with them.

Which is why DF's new flying traversal system, revamped renown, revamped gear system and tweaks to Mythic+ and easier Normal/Heroic raids and so many more things has made it the best expansion at retaining players in the modern time. Sure some of that is probably due to running paralell to Classic content and having a greater amount of "hardcore" players remaining post Shadowlands,but it cannot be understated how much cleaning up the various systems and removing friction and pain points along the way has done to make players stick around for longer.

With the War Within seemingly being more alt friendly with the Warband system working with Reputations/Delves and other things I can see that trend continuing if the content is of relative similar quality(or better) and the content cadence remains the same.

The moment to moment experience is so important to how players feel about your game.

@Fularu is right to note that quite a few things in BFA and Shadowlands were great(or became great) but if only one or two feature within the your game makes people happy and the other hundreds things with the game is a cause of frustration, many players are just going to unsub and play something that makes them happy 95% of the time.
 
Well, the absolute numbers frame the discussion. If the numbers were 4-5M, the discussion would be very different no?

Another question, WoW is huge in China, this graph takes place when it got pulled from China, is said loss of millions of subs reflected here? Did they remove Chinese subs from this graph?

On a relative basis from end of 2016 I think this graph spells it better:
wGnTR7d.png


The only thing that seems to have a big effect stopping bleeding is WoW Classic. The new expansion however as noted had bucked the trend, I don't know WoW to say why exactly.

However whats going to happen when they run out of the popular Classic expansions?
Judging by how much SoD has boosted numbers I’m assuming the next big boost will be from an actual classic plus.
 
Player dissatisfaction reaching a boiling point in 2021 is due to both years of frustration with certain design decisions coming to a head and particular elements of Shadowlands evoking frustration. Borrowed power was a sore point from day 1, with Legion's RNG legendary drops and alt unfriendly systems like artifact knowledge being major pain points for the expansion early on. The game was able to weather this in part due to the novelty of it and the sheer amount of content. It's well known that Warlords of Draenor was dropped early to push support to Legion, but as of this past Blizzcon, we now also know that Battle for Azeroth's development was hampered by the team deciding to focus on Legion's post-launch support more than usual (which funnily enough, we can see didn't make much of an impact on retention).

That brings us to BfA where you can see the wheels starting to burn out. Leveling from 110 to 120 involved the slow loss of all your Legion powers, and player outcry over how awful it felt was enormous. Azerite armor wasn't tested on the beta until shortly before release and its implementation is so poorly thought out it feels like the first iteration of artifact weapons rather than an improvement on them. Other new features like Warfronts feel so half-baked that it makes complete sense to me now knowing that Legion was cannibalizing BfA's development time: many of BfA's new features feel like they had very little internal testing and were rushed out the door. They no longer had the WoD problem of having too little content, their problem now was that much of the content was perceived as both unenjoyable and mandatory.

Player sentiment going into SL is then already cautious; borrowed power has a negative connotation. Issues with major features like the covenant system were raised the day they were announced, and all Blizzard had to reassure was effectively "trust me bro". The popular perception of the developers is that they were closed off, unresponsive to feedback, and held a quiet disdain for the playerbase that leaked through sarcastic comments made on official livestreams or Twitter posts. Once the brief honeymoon phase ended and SL's design was revealed to have the same problems players expected all along, frustration only grew.

9.1 ended up being the head for this because it just made those issues worse, which was a first. 7.1 and 8.1 may not have had major improvements to the flaws of their respective expansions, but they didn't exacerbate them. Players were immensely tired of the gray, bland Maw endgame zone; the new zone in 9.1 just introduced more of it. Players were exhausted with borrowed power and convoluted systems; 9.1 introduced Domination Shards which were effectively a worse version of tier set bonuses with much more RNG and grinding involved and no cosmetic appeal. The story is something that could have its own separate tirade, but in summary the reactions to the writing were so universally negative that even if you didn't care about it much, it was going to color your opinions about the game. The lawsuit followed a few weeks after this patch dropped, and the rest is history.

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Back to the present, an element I think needs to be brought up regarding increased retention is the addition of the trading post, a rotating monthly cosmetic reward shop that uses currency easily earned with a few hours of play once per month. I know two people that admit they haven't played the game much in months, but still stay subbed and log in to complete their trading post monthly. These are players that would be quitting outright in past expansions, and it'll be much less effort to pull them back in comparison. The comparative lack of friction in Dragonflight makes it much easier for players to both take breaks from the game on good terms and to return to it without much worry.
 
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Back to the present, an element I think needs to be brought up regarding increased retention is the addition of the trading post, a rotating monthly cosmetic reward shop that uses currency easily earned with a few hours of play once per month. I know two people that admit they haven't played the game much in months, but still stay subbed and log in to complete their trading post monthly. These are players that would be quitting outright in past expansions, and it'll be much less effort to pull them back in comparison. The comparative lack of friction in Dragonflight makes it much easier for players to both take breaks from the game on good terms and to return to it without much worry.

Agreed. I think people see spikes in numbers purely as new players and declines as purely losing players, but the long history of WoW numbers is the net of cancels, renewels, returnees, and new players. DF's actual content cadence and content quality have been great, but the Classic modes have helped with both returnees and keeping people renewed. It is easy for people see the classic expansions as having no effect but in practice it has led to people staying subscribed. Same with Trading Post. Overall reducing the number of cancels means that the actual spikes from the major things end being huge net numbers.

WoW isn't just the biggest subscription game ever, but is by like 3x, 4x, or sometimes 5x. A whole lot of things are working together and Blizzard's investment in buying a bunch of extra studios has paid off.

There was always a ton of cancels and churns during the WOTLK peak, but the overall number kept growing because it was drawing in totally new players that more than balanced it out.
 


@JezCorden

Lolol. It's cuz I was told BellularGaming's Warcraft subscriber figures analysis was "roughly on the money," although I admit I don't have the exact numbers. But either way the real story there is that the game is finding growth and resilience imo.
I would consider these numbers to be mostly confirmed going by what Jez was told.
 
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