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2024 Full Year Circana (US Hardware) Predictions - Closes Thursday, February 22 [CLOSED]

Welfare

Welfare

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Circana results are delayed at least 5 times

Switch successor sells over 2,000,000 in 2024
Switch successor sells over 3,000,000 in 2024

Switch successor does not set a new launch unit record, below PS5
Switch successor will set a new record unit launch, beating the PS5

Switch successor launches in September
Switch successor launches in October
Switch successor launches in November
Switch successor launches in November Week 1
Switch successor launches in November Week 2
Switch successor launches in November Week 3
Switch successor launches in November Week 4
Switch successor launches in December

Switch successor is the #1 selling console in 2024
Switch successor is the #2 or higher highest selling console in 2024
Switch successor is the #3 or higher highest selling console in 2024

PS5 sells more units than Switch successor in its launch month
From launch month to December, Switch successor is the #1 console in units for that time frame

PS5 leads in both Units and Revenue for 2024

Xbox Series is #1 in at least 1 month, units or revenue
Xbox Series is #1 in at least 1 month, units and revenue SAME TIME
Xbox Series will be #2 in units in at least 7 months

Switch places #1 in at least one month for units

One of PS5, XBS, or NSW sells over 500K units in at least one month before November
This thread is for predictions of U.S. Hardware sales as reported by Circana (or estimations thereof where no public data is available) for the entire 2024 retail year (December 31, 2023 - January 4, 2025).

What is Circana?: Circana is one of the main retail tracking firms in the U.S., and also about the only one who specifically goes into detail on video games sales. This thread is to predict what the Circana hardware sales will be for the upcoming year.
What do I win?: Bragging rights, but SalesEra followers have fun seeing how well we can do with it. (^_^)

Prediction entries must be in and finalized by 8 p.m. EST on Thursday, February 22nd. (Day before the January 2024 NPD release) Format use is absolutely required.

Do not use decimal points or "m"/"million" in your predictions. If you predict over 1 million for a system, you can use 1000K or more to get to your prediction. Be careful to use the appropriate number of place values so you don't over or understate your predictions by a factor of 10. People who have such outliers will be disqualified.

You will also be predicting the revenue ranking winner, which will be denoted by 1., 2., or 3. placements.

Format to use for predictions

1. [NSW]
2. [PS5]
3. [XBS]
4. [NS2]

Yes, we are assuming Switch 2 [NS2] is out this year. If for some reason it isn't, we take that L. If you want to be brave and predict it doesn't come out this year, be my guest ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Good
1. [XBS] 4500K
2. [XBS] 4500000
3. [XBS] 4,500,000

Bad
[XBS] 4.500.000
[XBS] 4.5 million
[XBS] 4.5m
[XBS] - 4.5 m
XBS - 4 million

2023 Results
Officially undetermined as of now, but a decent maximum for all three consoles.

1. [PS5] <6.8M
2. [NSW] <4.8M
3. [XBS] <3.8M

2022 Results
1. [PS5] 5660K
2. [NSW] 5820K
3. [XBS] 4480K

2021 Results
Xevross said:
2021 approx totals:

NSW 7.67M
PS5 4.28M
XBS 3.74M
Click to expand...

2020 Results
Welfare said:
While we wait for the results to get #1 predictors for PS4 and XB1, we already have the 2020 sales for the consoles we will be predicting for this year

2020 YTD Rounded To Nearest 10K
NSW: 8980K
PS5: 1960K
XBS: 1490K
Click to expand...

2019 Results
Welfare said:
YTD 2019 Rounded to the nearest 10K

NSW: 6.5M
PS4: 3.87M
XB1: 3.05M
Click to expand...

Potentially significant sales-related events for 2024
53 Weeks (typically 52 Weeks)

(No guarantee these'll all happen. Also, this list is not meant to be comprehensive.)

Switch successor - Holiday launch, $399, 3D Mario, Pokemon Gen 10
NSW - Price drop, 3D Mario, Pokemon Gen 10
PS5 - Price drop, PS5 Pro
XSX - Price drop, digital only Series X

NPD Prediction Thread Archive
 
1. [PS5] 5200K
2. [XBS] 3800K
3. [NSW] 3200K
 
Last edited:
1. [PS5] 5150K
2. [XBS] 3750K
3. [NSW] 3050K
4. [NS2] 0k
Assuming the Switch 2 is indeed delayed to 2025
In the case that Switch 2 is still on track for 2024
[NS2] 2700k
[NSW] 2500k
 
Last edited:
1. [PS5] 5432K
2. [XBS] 3579K
3. [NSW] 3210K
4. [NS2] 0K

Assuming Nov launch for Switch 2

Welfare said:
Switch successor - Holiday launch, $399, 3D Mario, Pokemon Gen 10
Click to expand...
While some type of Pokemon title is expected to launch this year, it won't be Pokemon Gen 10 (which would arrive in Nov 2025 if the 3 year development cycle is maintained).
 
Last edited:
1. [PS5] 4999k
2. [XBS] 3444k
3. [NSW] 2999k


if NS2 somehow actually launches this holidays, i had it as 3222k and NSW as 2111k (with 3rd and 4th revenue in that order).
 
Last edited:
Oh shit, Switch 2 huh? Gonna have to give this one some thought and probably leave it until the last minute in case there's news/ concrete rumours.
 
1. [PS5] 5500K
2. [XBS] 4100K
3. [NS2] 2400K
4. [NSW] 3000K

Xevross said:
Oh shit, Switch 2 huh? Gonna have to give this one some thought and probably leave it until the last minute in case there's news/ concrete rumours.
Click to expand...
can always edit until the deadline
 
1. [PS5] 5800k
2. [XBS] 3500k
3. [NSW] 3000k


I'm going to assume the reports of the Switch 2 not coming until Q1 2025 are true, so that's what I'm going to go with. If the Switch 2 was for sure coming this year, I would have said:

[NSW] 2500k
[NS2] 2750k

Though that would be hard to call as we still wouldn't know exactly when this fall the Switch 2 would have come out. In either case, tough year to predict.
 
Last edited:
1. [PS5] 5555K
2. [XBS] 3939K
3. [NSW] 3645K
4. [NS2] 0K

Yeah so we did find out Switch 2 isn't coming this year before the prediction window ends. That means I'm going with 0 for it. Originally I was thinking Switch 2 would launch late in the year and I'd have gone for something like Switch 3.0M, Switch 2 2.0M.

I think PS5 will decline a fair bit from last year but still not be too far off PS4's peak year. Xbox will grow slightly from last year due to Activision games on GP and new X model, but it will still be bad.
 
Limabean01 said:
[PS5] 5432k
[XBS] 3210k
[NS2] 3210k
[NSW] 2109k
Click to expand...

theprodigy said:
[PS5] 5500K
[XBS] 3500K
[NSW] 3300K
[NS2] 0
Click to expand...

BTB123 said:
[PS5] 5300K
[XBS] 3600K
[NSW] 3300K
Click to expand...

bf2142 said:
[PS5] 5100K
[XBS] 3100K
[NSW] 3000K
Click to expand...

Shadow of the Void said:
[PS5] 5800k
[XBS] 3500k
[NSW] 3000k


I'm going to assume the reports of the Switch 2 not coming until Q1 2025 are true, so that's what I'm going to go with. If the Switch 2 was for sure coming this year, I would have said:

[NSW] 2500k
[NS2] 2750k

Though that would be hard to call as we still wouldn't know exactly when this fall the Switch 2 would have come out. In either case, tough year to predict.
Click to expand...

Ystad said:
[PS5] 5310K
[XBS] 2999K
[NSW] 3468K
[NS2] 0
Click to expand...
Add the

1.
2.
3.
4.

For revenue ranking
 
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