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Your argument is literally based on "opinions" though.
Can Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom reach/surpass BOTW total lifetime sales (Switch+Wii U)? How much will it do compared to BOTW?
- Thread starter War Inquisitor
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Your argument is literally based on "opinions" though.
Agreed. I think 7-8 million in the launch weekend is possible for TOTK. Probably around 15 million by the end of the quarter (June 30) then 20-22 million by the end of 2023. After that, I can see it legging it out to 30 million by the end of its lifetime.
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This is tough.
I would expect it to follow the Majora’s Mask trajectory compared to Ocarina of Time on N64, or Skyward Sword compared to Twilight Princess on Wii - being that late Zelda game that comes at the end of the console life cycle.
But the Switch is special case I believe, and BotW is special case indeed - still in the top 20 on NPD charts 5 years and 8 months after its release. So I believe TotK will be MASSIVE. And Nintendo could release an enhanced version for launch on the Switch Next. But whether or not it'll beat BoTW, I don't know... I will say it'll fall short. But it will still put up incredible numbers and probably hit 20 million units sold faster than BoTW did.
That's pretty much my take.
I would expect it to follow the Majora’s Mask trajectory compared to Ocarina of Time on N64, or Skyward Sword compared to Twilight Princess on Wii - being that late Zelda game that comes at the end of the console life cycle.
But the Switch is special case I believe, and BotW is special case indeed - still in the top 20 on NPD charts 5 years and 8 months after its release. So I believe TotK will be MASSIVE. And Nintendo could release an enhanced version for launch on the Switch Next. But whether or not it'll beat BoTW, I don't know... I will say it'll fall short. But it will still put up incredible numbers and probably hit 20 million units sold faster than BoTW did.
That's pretty much my take.
My bet is something like Mario Galaxy to Galaxy 2. But if it the new hardware is a successor instead of an upgrade I won’t be surprised if it sell like or even more than BOTW.
The other Zelda, besides late cycle, also needed a peripheral.
Preorders now open, any new/updated predictions?
For now sticking with this, but (unless this game is received poorly) starting to feel like it could go higher.
In JP my 1.5M is about 41% of the current LTD shipments of BOTW. SPL3 and Scarlet/Violet both hit close to 70% of the LTD shipments in the opening 3 days. Even if TOTK isn't as frontloaded, I could easily see it hitting the 50% mark of BOTW, so maybe 1700-1900K (depending on if we're counting NSW only or all releases) instead.
Overseas standing by 8-8.5M. That would be a similar share of BOTW OS LTD (25.6M now, should be ~26.4M then) as SV just did with SwSh, and would also be similar to the OS advantage BOTW has over SwSh (30-35%) vs SV.
For now sticking with this, but (unless this game is received poorly) starting to feel like it could go higher.
In JP my 1.5M is about 41% of the current LTD shipments of BOTW. SPL3 and Scarlet/Violet both hit close to 70% of the LTD shipments in the opening 3 days. Even if TOTK isn't as frontloaded, I could easily see it hitting the 50% mark of BOTW, so maybe 1700-1900K (depending on if we're counting NSW only or all releases) instead.
Overseas standing by 8-8.5M. That would be a similar share of BOTW OS LTD (25.6M now, should be ~26.4M then) as SV just did with SwSh, and would also be similar to the OS advantage BOTW has over SwSh (30-35%) vs SV.
Would be great if TOTK sells over 10m in its first weekend like SV did (considering how it will almost certainly deserve it more than SV), but I just don't see that happening. It's not launching during the holidays and Pokemon as a brand is much bigger than Zelda. I think 8-9 million worldwide in the first weekend is more likely and then about 15-16 million by the end of June. 20-22 million by the end of 2023. Over 30 million at the end of its life (by which time BOTW will probably be over 36 million or over 37 million if you count the Wii U version).
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Somehow forgot my own thread.
Anyway, prediction is at least 10M WW first Quarter (tho it could do it in the first week) and 20M by the end of the FY.
Anyway, prediction is at least 10M WW first Quarter (tho it could do it in the first week) and 20M by the end of the FY.
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Trailers and marketing have been bad for this so far but the hype is still rightly insane. I'm still agreeing with myself from when this thread opened of under BOTW Switch lifetime (~25M range) and maybe even closer if it gets a good quality Switch 2 version.
Currently I would guess ~6M first week sellthrough, maybe up to 8M if they decide to make a good trailer and market it very well.
Currently I would guess ~6M first week sellthrough, maybe up to 8M if they decide to make a good trailer and market it very well.
The trailers haven't been bad. The reception was very good.
The hype of the initial trailer was thru the roof... but they have been a bit off on continuing that same level of hype. I wonder if the play the secret game or give us a blowout marketing spree.
I enjoyed the new trailers, but it definitely feels like they are holding things close to their chest. We haven't gotten a trailer like the 2017 Switch Presentation one that Zelda got (which was only 2 months from launch, so there's still time). I guess they don't want Zelda hype to diminish other games like Engage & Return to Dream Land DX.
Obviously my Nintendo bias would lead me to believe that TOTK will sell more by the end of 2023 and lifetime. But we will see what happens. Hogwarts Legacy does have more time for 2023 since it just came out and TOTK still has a few months to go. Technically, the install base for both is huge, so one doesn't have an advantage over the other here. Over 120m Switches for Zelda vs the PS4, XBO, PS5, XSX, Switch & PC install bases for Hogwarts (I imagine most sales will be for the PS5 & XSX versions though, so technically advantage Zelda).
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Alright, Bumping this thread again with the new gameplay demonstration. Anyone wants to change their prediction?
Now that it’s confirmed to be the Mario Galaxy to Galaxy 2 type of sequel I’m reassured it will can get closer to Switch version but won’t surpass it.
Don’t see it appealing to anyone who already didn’t buy BOTW.
EDIT: just noticed I voted it could sell more than BOTW Switch. I was considering a new hardware alongside Totk would be a lock. Changed my vote.
Don’t see it appealing to anyone who already didn’t buy BOTW.
EDIT: just noticed I voted it could sell more than BOTW Switch. I was considering a new hardware alongside Totk would be a lock. Changed my vote.
It should go over 30 million sometime next year which will be crazy. The question is can it reach 40-50 million?
Agreed but it's so difficult to handicap without sounding crazy bc many don't view the upside limit so high. People using Wii era comparisons of sequels are most likely going to be extremely low in their projections. The active install base is immense and unlike anything ever seen at this stage of lifecycle.
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If they were to remaster it for the next system, then I think it could. But, I don't see that happening otherwise.
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Don’t think this will surpass the original but over 20 million easily unless it’s an utter catastrophe for some reason. I just haven’t seen much indicating it will actually surpass the original, especially when all the marketing is focused on reminding you of the original.
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New trailer so it's time to ask again: Has your prediction changed after the new trailer?
It is hard to know without info on their next platform. TotK will cross 20m without much issue but BOTW is heading for 35 to 37 million. It is hard to see a same system sequel hitting that bar this late in the generation. It does happen on occassion but I am less inclined to believe it. But if it is enhanced on the next system perhaps it becomes a strong ever green. I'm gonna say it hits 25m when all is said and done.
30M on Switch 1 alone is basically guaranteed now after the glowing reception to the newest trailer. But that won't be enough to surpass BotW. It will likely leg along strongly on the next gen system though through backwards compatibility or an upgraded port.
Over 40M LT is not out of the question.
Over 40M LT is not out of the question.
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30 million+ at this point is guaranteed. A 20m launch quarter would also not be totally out of the blue.
My prediction hasn't changed at all. Lifetime total of this game will be half or less of BotW.
I expect TotK to have a huge opening just like everyone else. However, I think it's legs will be terrible while BotW will continue to have strong legs.
Care to explain? I mean, this doesn't make any sense.
All marketing activity will be focused on TOTK. It'll have high review scores and user engagement. Why its legs will be terrible after an explosive launch then?
BotW will keep selling but the new game won't? What?
I think this game is going to to sell crazy big numbers in its first month. I think 17-20 million in the first year is possible. If the next switch is backwards compatible it’ll definitely surpass BotW.
I am betting on 6-8M copies sold day 1.I'm starting to believe it can sell 10M in a first weekNo less than 7-8M in first weekend for sure
This game will be GIGANTIC.
By the way @Lelouch0612, can we have an official betting thread on that very question?
The triple threat of a massive launch, potential big performance update on the Switch successor as well a more substantial DLC will allow it to close the gap to BotW very fast in the best case scenario.
May 23 Launch
Nov 23 Drake/Switch 2 Update
Spring 24 DLC Part 1
Fall 24 DLC Part 2
May 23 Launch
Nov 23 Drake/Switch 2 Update
Spring 24 DLC Part 1
Fall 24 DLC Part 2
If we get any number it will be sell through for the first three days.
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That makes no sense. Why would BOTW keeps selling but TOTK doesn't ?
If anything TOTK is also the one more likely to receive a crossgen version whenever new hardware shows up resulting in another wave of sales while BOTW itself might never get any kind of graphical upgrade.
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I'm not sure how you can still stand by this conclusion. It doesn't make sense.
What is your rationale behind this?
Some things to consider.
1) Zelda is not a wildly popular brand. BotW is wildly popular, but Zelda is not. People did not buy Skyward Sword or Link's Awakening on the Switch like they bought BotW. Age of Calamity sold really well for a Warriors game, but it likewise did not put up numbers like BotW. BotW has some really amazing sales and legs, but that is not translating into sales for other Zelda/Hyrule titles.
2) The title, i.e. the branding, for TotK is terrible. How is a casual gamer supposed to know that this game is like BotW? I.e. a casual gamer is someone who doesn't go to internet forums or social media to talk about gaming or look at gaming videos. They look at the box cover and talk to friends. Box art like BotW is not enough, because you can look at Age of Calamity sales to see that box art is not enough. The Zelda name is not enough either, e.g. Skyward Sword. This game needs "Breath of the Wild" somewhere in the title or something like it.
3) The gameplay is going to be disappointing for a lot of people. I can tell this, because they aren't really showing off the gameplay. Recall E3 2016 when Nintendo was the punching bag for the gaming press and internet gaming culture. They come in and show off basically one game: Breath of the Wild, and they show off hours of gameplay. They also say, "Hey this is just the starting plateau and there is tons more left to show." They knew they had something great and they wanted to show it off. They aren't showing off this game. They don't seem to have faith in it.
Given, there are also a lot of people out there who are highly anticipating the sequel to BotW. That is why I think TotK is going to sell well initially. But once the most enthusiastic BotW fans have bought the game, legs are not going to be like BotW. Legs are going to be disappointing.
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None of these points make for a strong argument, especially the latter two, which is based solely on your opinion.
The title of the game is not an opinion.
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You said the title of the game is terrible. Unless you can prove that is mostly the consensus, then yes it is.The title of the game is not an opinion.
@The_Liquid_Laser
Age of Calamity sold less than BotW because it's not called The Legend of Zelda and because people know what type of game it is. People are not all oblivious. Nintendo's marketing is huge. BotW didn't just sell because of it's fucking boxart. It sold because of marketing, reception and wom.
People know that TotK is the sequel to BotW and not Skyward Sword 2.0, the audience for this isn't a bunch of 70 year olds that don't or barely use the internet.
TotK got plenty of gameplay shown. The rest is not to dissimilar from BotW or simply shouldn't be spoiled. The trailers showed off a ton of new content and changes to the overworld.
The reception to what was shown is overwhelmingly positive. The new gameplay mechanics hold near infinite potential for experimentation, replayability and viral clips that spurr positive wom.
BotW is famous for having an endless amount of things to discover and TotK won't be different in that regard.
They have shown the gameplay off, it is looking good to by far most people and nothing suggests that Nintendo EPD's highest profile development department doesn't have faith in it's biggest project ever after never having made anything but critical successes.
"Gameplay will be disappointing because they aren't really showing off the gameplay."
Troll
Age of Calamity sold less than BotW because it's not called The Legend of Zelda and because people know what type of game it is. People are not all oblivious. Nintendo's marketing is huge. BotW didn't just sell because of it's fucking boxart. It sold because of marketing, reception and wom.
People know that TotK is the sequel to BotW and not Skyward Sword 2.0, the audience for this isn't a bunch of 70 year olds that don't or barely use the internet.
TotK got plenty of gameplay shown. The rest is not to dissimilar from BotW or simply shouldn't be spoiled. The trailers showed off a ton of new content and changes to the overworld.
The reception to what was shown is overwhelmingly positive. The new gameplay mechanics hold near infinite potential for experimentation, replayability and viral clips that spurr positive wom.
BotW is famous for having an endless amount of things to discover and TotK won't be different in that regard.
They have shown the gameplay off, it is looking good to by far most people and nothing suggests that Nintendo EPD's highest profile development department doesn't have faith in it's biggest project ever after never having made anything but critical successes.
"Gameplay will be disappointing because they aren't really showing off the gameplay."
Troll
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They don't need to show as much from TOTK in comparison to BOTW, it's a sequel. We saw the same happening with GOW Ragnarok (which showed even less, like 2 trailers and a few small clips of gameplay from Game Informer coverage). It doesn't mean they have no faith in it, that's nonsense.
Honestly the ~13m gameplay video they did recently showcasing the new mechanics was perfect to give players a glimpse of some of the new stuff to expect (which is very significant gameplay wise), without really spoiling much.
I think the game will have massive sales both at launch and throughout the years, and I'm pretty sure @The_Liquid_Laser will be proven wrong, but we'll have to wait. No clue if it can reach BOTW sales, but even if it doesn't I doubt the difference will be big.
Honestly the ~13m gameplay video they did recently showcasing the new mechanics was perfect to give players a glimpse of some of the new stuff to expect (which is very significant gameplay wise), without really spoiling much.
I think the game will have massive sales both at launch and throughout the years, and I'm pretty sure @The_Liquid_Laser will be proven wrong, but we'll have to wait. No clue if it can reach BOTW sales, but even if it doesn't I doubt the difference will be big.
You argue that S/V sold better than Sw/Sh because the latter was a "disappointing entry". What's that based on if not on random internet opinions? Considering Sw/Sh were literally the second best-selling Pokemon editions of all time that conclusion doesn't seem to be based on the market's general perception.
1) Link's Awakening outsold the original Link's Awakening. Skyward Sword HD outsold the original Skyward Sword. Age of Calamity is the most successful Warriors. That the Zelda franchise is in a stronger position than before Switch is hard to deny. Of course none of these games reach the heights of BotW, but that wouldn't have been a reasonable expectation in the first place. 2D Zelda simply isn't as popular as 3D Zelda, Skyward Sword is a rather barebones remaster of one of the least popular Zelda games. Neither of the games play much like BotW, neither of them are new games. These factors don't suddenly change just because of BotW's popularity. TotK as a brand new game that follows into BotW's footsteps is a completely different case.
2) "Gamer who buys games solely based on its boxart" is a fantastical construct and not representative of actual customers. Game trailers are mainstream, video game streamers/influencers are mainstream, video game media is mainstream, commercials and other kind of marketing exist.
The kind of casual gamer you describe is not someone who buys games day 1 in the first place, but later down the road based on WoM. And even then they'll have watched trailers and/or gameplay.
3) That's just a silly assumption. Nintendo in 2016 was in a position where it needed to proof itself. Zelda was in a position where it needed to demonstrate why people should be excited for this radical new approach to the franchise. Neither of these things hold true in 2023. Nintendo keeping TotK in an aura of mystery doesn't mean much except that they deem keeping a certain mystery and element of surprise to be beneficial to the game.