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Zelda: Echoes of Wisdom Lifetime Sales Expectations
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I'm thinking about making an avatar bet thread related to first quarter sales (which of course would just be launch week sales plus a little more, I think)
What do we figure are good ranges to put down based on results here?
Maybe
1. Under 1 Million
2. 1 Million to 2 Million
3. Above 2 Million
But I'm open to suggestions here. Anybody got launch quarter numbers for the Link's Awakening remake handy?
What do we figure are good ranges to put down based on results here?
Maybe
1. Under 1 Million
2. 1 Million to 2 Million
3. Above 2 Million
But I'm open to suggestions here. Anybody got launch quarter numbers for the Link's Awakening remake handy?
3.13M shipped, but it released in Sept 20th.
I suggest putting at least 3 and 4M options in the poll.
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- #154
Too safe. Princess Peach did 1.21mil Quarter launch. It's not even close to the same release and the remake of links awakening did 3.13mil
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Avatar bet would be
Under 5mil or over 5mil
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Over and under is on 5 million in the first shipment + a week of digital sales??? That feels *high*...
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- #158
It's not, or can just make an prediction launch thread instead.
As to you thinking it was too high, Links Awakening back in 2019 did 3.13mil in 2 weeks, I'm sure a mainline NEW 2D zelda and how big TotK did insay 5mil just over or under is fair. Everyone is entitled to their opinion but if you do 3mil or 4mil, your gonna have 90% of everyone bet over that.
At least 5mil would make people second guess themselves and the stakes are higher am I right?
It's 5 days. 5M is a lot, but I guess it's not impossible and even more likely than ever for a 2D Zelda to actually have such a big opening.
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Link's Awakening sold 3.13 million at launch; that's about ~47% of life-to-date sales, I think?
It's not wholly reasonable to assume similar ratios with future games in a series.... Zelda is definitely larger than it was when LA launched, but it might have the "sequel problem"...
How do we feel about 3.5M being the over/under for the launch quarter/first week? Given that a lot of people in this thread are predicting at or beneath 3.5 million lifetime, specifically because they think it will sell less than Link's Awakening I think it would get a pretty good split of folks voting for both options
If y'all think this is an OK amount, I'll ask a mod for permission; I don't think IB has ever had such a thread before, but it's always a fun bit of community building
It's not wholly reasonable to assume similar ratios with future games in a series.... Zelda is definitely larger than it was when LA launched, but it might have the "sequel problem"...
How do we feel about 3.5M being the over/under for the launch quarter/first week? Given that a lot of people in this thread are predicting at or beneath 3.5 million lifetime, specifically because they think it will sell less than Link's Awakening I think it would get a pretty good split of folks voting for both options
If y'all think this is an OK amount, I'll ask a mod for permission; I don't think IB has ever had such a thread before, but it's always a fun bit of community building
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I think that sounds fair, given that you've outlined the first-week to lifetime ratio for LA and around half of users in this thread voted for lifetime figures that would fall below expected FW sales with that same ratio applied.
EDIT: But RennanNT and BTB makes a point, maybe we need to adjust based on the number of days that were measured in that LA figure and adjust to match based on a guess on how those extra days could positively effect sales. LA was released 11 days before the end of the fiscal quarter, so it may be worth, say, finding the percentage of Famitsu sales in its first week compared the Famitsu total of 2 weeks and using that to determine if 3.5mil is high enough to be above expectation for 5 days of recorded sales.
So... napkin math time.
141,375 (Famitsu's first week sales) ÷ 187,150 (Famitsu total sales for 2 weeks) = 0.7554 = 75.54% of LA's 2-week sales were in the first week
75.54% of 3.13mil = 2.364mil
If close to half of LA's sales were in those first 2 weeks and EoW has half the days on sale, I'd say 3.5-4mil is a high enough number to be adequate for the purpose you intend. Not exactly down the middle, high enough that betting over that number would be considered a risk for IB patrons based on their lifetime predictions in the thread poll... yeah, it works.
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Not doing an avatar bet but my feelings are still that this will sell less than Link's Awakening. Most iterative follow ups on Switch have the original sell more with a couple of exceptions, generally the more multiplayer oriented ones like Splatoon and Pokemon.
Calling it a regular iterative sequel is a bit dismissing when it's the biggest departure in terms of gameplay and playable character in the 2D series since....ever ? The scope also seems massive compared to past games.
Sure engine and style are the same, but this isn't Links Awakening 2 or what people would have expected from the next 2D Zelda - it's much more than that, checking a couple completely new boxes while also fulfilling the long-term wish of having Princess Zelda in the lead role.
Switch 2 is coming soon as well and these late gen Switch games will likely all have and get updates for the new system, which will have a positive effect in their legs compared to previous system transitions we have seen on the Nintendo side.
This gonna be a special release and a unique experience for quite a while, we wont get a similar game anytime soon so its gonna have that USP in the Switch family library. While there are plenty of similar traditional 2D Zeldas on Switch to chose on, this one is gonna be removed from that pack, until it potentially gets an actual iterative sequel years down the line.
A new Zelda Switch game launching right before the holiday quarter is likely to have a massive shipment anyway. It will be interesting to see where the game is after the holiday quarter. I’m curious to see if it’s overshipped at launch, so sell through outpaces shipments in the holiday quarter, or if they are need to send out additional shipments during the holidays because the launch shipments have sold out.
Is it really true when you compare Remake/Remasters -> New game tho ?
Wonder sold better than NSMBUDX, Pikmin 4 than Pikmin 3 DX, Hyrule Warriors AoC than Hyrule Warriors DX, Bayonetta 3 than Bayonetta 2...
Finding examples that go the other way around is the tricky way
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I think it should reach 5m due to aesthetics. It looks cute like a game.
I only read your post after posting mine, so let me elaborate on what I said Yesterday:
1- This poll was made after the first trailer and a common argument aagainst the game was not having sword combat or traditional gameplay loop. The Sword combat and dungeons trailer likely increased some of the more pessimistic votes.
2- This game is releasing very late. When LA launched in 2019, BotW reached 14.5M on Switch, which isn't even half of it's 32M LTD. Echoes is bounded to be way more frontloaded and TotK release is quite recent in people's mind too. So, even people expecting if it doesn't sells as much as LA may think it will do much better at launch.
I'm not participating on the avatar bet, so ignore me if you don't want an outsider opnion, but I also believe 4+ will get a lot more votes than sub 4 and I think a 4.5M would be a better split.
EDIT: And I would add that there aren't any other high profile Nintendo game competing for attention/hype aside from MPJ. From the top of my head, LA had MM2, 3 Houses and Sword and Shield releasing within 2 months of it (and New Horizons 6 months later).
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OP
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- #171
4.5mil is a good be for over/under. I'm gonna go hard though and say EoW will do allt more ship+digital than that at launch. Unlike Mario (2D/Kart/etc) Zelda fans are some of Nintendo most hardcore (looks at TotK launch) and will be there day 1 I'm comparison.
@Jimmy Joe you can make a thread if you want, just let me kno cuz I was going to make a launch prediction myself 3 weeks out, butnyour avatar bet thread is cool if mods are ok with it too.
@Jimmy Joe Avatar bets are totally okay 
However, I think that in order to get more variance in the predictions and to avoid the overshipment discourse, you should extend the tracking period to 2024.
That's just my 2ct
However, I think that in order to get more variance in the predictions and to avoid the overshipment discourse, you should extend the tracking period to 2024.
That's just my 2ct
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This is a good idea... in that case I'll crank it up to an even 5 million in 2024, which would put it ~801,000 ahead of Link's Awakening. Going much higher than that, I think, would mean it's in danger of outselling Link's Awakening in the first calendar year, which while possible would probably spook a lot of bettors@Jimmy Joe Avatar bets are totally okay
However, I think that in order to get more variance in the predictions and to avoid the overshipment discourse, you should extend the tracking period to 2024.
That's just my 2ct
Extending it to cover all of 2024 means it won't overlap with @Tbone5189 's launch sales thread, and in fact Tbone's thread will help contextualize or ratchet up the tension for the avatar bet
I'll try to get it up tonight, then
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- #176
Ok great, I'll make a launch thread later in the month. It's just for predictions for basically the first week and we will get our answer for that thread by early Nov
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Hey now, Wonder hasn’t outsold NSMBU yet!Wonder sold better than NSMBUDX, Pikmin 4 than Pikmin 3 DX, Hyrule Warriors AoC than Hyrule Warriors DX, Bayonetta 3 than Bayonetta 2...
Finding examples that go the other way around is the tricky way
Been watching the trailers from a distance, feeling pretty stupid for doubting the game's ambition at its reveal. I'm feeling very optimistic. I'm going to guess 5 million this year, 9 million total. That is, of course, assuming the game reviews like a Zelda game (90 MC+)
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- #179
Never judge a reveal trailer from Nintendo. It’s the one company that trailer wise is “Don’t judge a book by its cover”
We been going through this for years lol
Same for Bayonetta 3 outselling Bayonetta 2 on Switch btw.
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Is it really true when you compare Remake/Remasters -> New game tho ?
Wonder sold better than NSMBUDX, Pikmin 4 than Pikmin 3 DX, Hyrule Warriors AoC than Hyrule Warriors DX, Bayonetta 3 than Bayonetta 2...
Finding examples that go the other way around is the tricky way
Lelouch said NSMBUDX, because that's the same comparison as Echoes to Link's Awakening HD - a current gen Switch game and a Switch remake of an older game.
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Yes, Wonder has not outsold NSMBUDX.
List of best-selling Nintendo Switch video games - Wikipedia
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Nintendo only updates a game's numbers quarterly in the fiscal year it launched in or once it achieves 1mil sales in a fiscal year, whereas NSMBUDX gets the benefit of quarterly updates by being in the Top 10 best sellers, and it's there partly by virtue of being a 2019 game that's frequently on sale during the holidays.Yes, Wonder has not outsold NSMBUDX.
List of best-selling Nintendo Switch video games - Wikipedia
en.wikipedia.org
Launch-aligned, SMBW has easily surpassed NSMBUDX, as SMBW already has shipped in 6 recorded months what it took NSMBUDX 3 full years to achieve (for balance, NSMBUDX shipped 4.1mil in 8 months). Even when accounting for differences in hardware units sold, it cannot fully compensate for a more than three-fold increase in sales within a similar time period.
SMBW should appear with a new number in Q2 of Nintendo's financials, maybe Q3 at latest, because it's performing steadily quite great at retail in North America (is currently the highest-selling evergreen in Nintendo's catalog in NA rn according to Amazon), continues to move good unit numbers weekly in Japan and regularly features as a top 3 evergreen on eShop across multiple regions, so reaching 1mil in a single FY should be doable by the end of September at its current pace. And who knows how well it will perform in its 2nd holiday period during Q3; that feels like when we'll know whether the game will meet or exceed current figures for other 2D Marios, NSMBUDX in particular.
That aside... as of this moment, the only thing EoW shares with LA anyways is developer Grezzo, aesthetics and a top-down perspective. It's not another remake (maybe if this was the Oracle games in this style, the point would be better made), it has different primary play mechanics, different protagonist, etc. So I dunno how framing it as a LA follow-up really tracks.
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The original NSMBU has by far been surpassed by Wonder. Obviously Deluxe was meant.
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I am going to go bold and say 10m+ LTD
I hadn't logged in in months here, but this prediction thread is a loose end for me, so I had to get back in time before the game's release to revise my prediction. I did not read the 50+ new posts in this thread, but if anyone responded to me and still thinks they deserve an answer, just let me know.
The trailers after the initial ones left a very good impression on me, so Nintendo did what I suspected they could do: This is another game where they laid the bar purposefully low with the announcement trailer. And as I said, if this happens, it will have an impact on my prediction. The things that matter are:
1. Zelda will be able to fight with a sword. Sure, it's an ability with a time limit that can be presumably extended over the course of the game, but that's still a lot better than the sole reliance on throwing items or summoning monsters for combat purposes. This is a great option for a game that set out to present plenty of solutions for its puzzle-solving, so it would have been a crime if Zelda had had no weapons at all. Choice matters.
2. There's a quest log to keep track of your tasks which suggests that sidequests will be a lot more plentyful than in previous top-down Zelda games. Dungeons and in particular the rifts also point toward a longer game than usual for top-down Zelda standards.
3. You can ride a horse. This isn't that important, but it puts a welcome feature into top-down Zelda that has previously been exclusive to the 3D games.
I won't dedicate a point to additional puzzle-solving mechanics, because I had expected them to exist originally.
So what does this mean for my prediction?
I am going from previously 3m tops lifetime to 3m in the first quarter (which is actually only five days as you know), 5m at the end of 2024 and 7m lifetime.
The trailers after the initial ones left a very good impression on me, so Nintendo did what I suspected they could do: This is another game where they laid the bar purposefully low with the announcement trailer. And as I said, if this happens, it will have an impact on my prediction. The things that matter are:
1. Zelda will be able to fight with a sword. Sure, it's an ability with a time limit that can be presumably extended over the course of the game, but that's still a lot better than the sole reliance on throwing items or summoning monsters for combat purposes. This is a great option for a game that set out to present plenty of solutions for its puzzle-solving, so it would have been a crime if Zelda had had no weapons at all. Choice matters.
2. There's a quest log to keep track of your tasks which suggests that sidequests will be a lot more plentyful than in previous top-down Zelda games. Dungeons and in particular the rifts also point toward a longer game than usual for top-down Zelda standards.
3. You can ride a horse. This isn't that important, but it puts a welcome feature into top-down Zelda that has previously been exclusive to the 3D games.
I won't dedicate a point to additional puzzle-solving mechanics, because I had expected them to exist originally.
So what does this mean for my prediction?
I am going from previously 3m tops lifetime to 3m in the first quarter (which is actually only five days as you know), 5m at the end of 2024 and 7m lifetime.
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- #188
That's a huge turnaround! Jesus Christmas
Did you actually expect them to have shown everything the game has to offer in the very first trailer? It was blatantly obvious and always is, that in subsequent trailers they'd be showing more mechanics and other content the game has to offer like they do with every one of their games.
This is like the "BotW has no towns" nonsense. BotW only got any towns at all shown in the last trailer and lynels were never shown at all. And the depths from TotK were only minimally shown for a few seconds where you could mistake it for just another cave.
They still haven't shown nearly everything EoW has to offer.
No, I did not expect that. But it wasn't blatantly obvious that Zelda would be able to fight by herself, hence why I even got responses that a sword does not matter at all.
Another thing is that the precedent of Triforce Heroes exists. That's a game that didn't get any better with trailers and new info towards its launch and remained a lot of wasted potential. The point is that there's no guarantee that Nintendo gets it right, so don't act like that's the case.
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- #193
It wont change Shiiiiiiiii...... IMO. Reviews are good, from some I read, has weird takes. I guess some people want link back or sword/shield all game
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Yeah I think reviews themselves will likely have minimal impact, it's just how well that translates to reaction from players. A low 90s quality game you'd expect to have better WoM and legs than a mid 80s, but that's only an average trend and there'll be plenty of exceptions.
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- #195
Its notnkiek triforce heroes where the game reviewed bad, just not peak like zelda games are known for
I was very confident in my prediction because I expected >90, now I'm less confident but I'm sticking to it.
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Link's Awakening has sold just under 6.7 million units.
Minus:
- The surprise effect
- The unprecedented art style
- The nostalgia because of the remake
- The performance problems that were not criticised at the time, which have not been fixed in this game either
- The fans who call this game 'woke'
- The Andrew Tate followers
- All the time Link's Awakening had to reach that number, which this side project won't have once the next main game is made by the actual Zelda developers.
I'm going to say 3 million.
Minus:
- The surprise effect
- The unprecedented art style
- The nostalgia because of the remake
- The performance problems that were not criticised at the time, which have not been fixed in this game either
- The fans who call this game 'woke'
- The Andrew Tate followers
- All the time Link's Awakening had to reach that number, which this side project won't have once the next main game is made by the actual Zelda developers.
I'm going to say 3 million.
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Can't tell if this is a joke or not (probably is)
