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Zelda: Echoes of Wisdom Lifetime Sales Expectations
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I don't really trust Twitter stats these days tbf
It has sold more, but not by a big margin. Which is quite damning, given how Skyward Sword's sales on Wii had been analyzed and how it was therefore bound to perform significantly better on Switch based on the analysis of sales on the Wii. But the point remains that the popularity of one specific title doesn't necessarily do wonders for another game of the same IP.
The most notable effect on a Zelda game outside of the sequel Tears of the Kingdom that can be credited to Breath of the Wild is the second Hyrule Warriors title, which was based on the world of Breath of the Wild. Age of Calamity sold more than 3 million copies, a feat that wasn't accomplished by any other Warriors game on any system.
That's why Echoes of Wisdom is better judged on its own and without drawing parallels that actually do not apply. From what was shown so far, it's a puzzle game and that's different to what Zelda's DNA is. Another thing that nobody has been thinking of so far is that Echoes of Wisdom will most likely be a $60 game. It has happened so often that 2D/top-down games were derided before launch based on their price alone, including the Link's Awakening remake on Switch. What was in LA's favor, however, was that it was still a proper Zelda game at the end of the day, but Echoes of Wisdom doesn't look like one.
I know it looks weak from me that I am not making absolute statements across the board, but one thing that has commonly held true for Nintendo is that a reveal trailer can be rather low-key and then later trailers make a game much more appealing. I saw that a bet has been proposed in this thread, but I am not going to commit to it at this point in time because of Nintendo's history. Ask me about it again a week before the game's release and we can go for it.
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In China, people and live streamers have a much higher response to it than SS HD and LA.
I always remember how disappointed people were with SS HD. The views of EOW is 600K, while the other two are still less than 100K. Considering that most people here start playing Zelda since BOTW. I think its appeal to BOTW/TOTK fans is much greater than the other two traditional ZELDAs.
I always remember how disappointed people were with SS HD. The views of EOW is 600K, while the other two are still less than 100K. Considering that most people here start playing Zelda since BOTW. I think its appeal to BOTW/TOTK fans is much greater than the other two traditional ZELDAs.
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This is a hard one to predict for many reasons.
Pros:
I predict that this game will have a strong launch (2-3M sales Q3) but will have weaker legs than the Links Awakening remake.
Lifetime sales: ~4M
Pros:
- This is a new LoZ game, a series that has dramatically increased in popularity over the last 7 years.
- This game seems to channel the BotW ethos of open-ended problem solving with powerful tools fueling emergent gameplay. This may be appealing to much of the BotW/TotK audience.
- A playable Zelda is something many people have been asking for for a long time.
- The Switch installbase is massive and still quite active.
- Social media feedback on reveal has been very positive.
- Top-down Zelda is likely less appealing than 3D Zelda to many players.
- The more sandbox-y progression style may turn off some fans of “traditional” Zelda.
- Puzzle-focused games tend to sell less than traditional action-focused games.
- The “Switch effect” is beginning to diminish as the system ages.
I predict that this game will have a strong launch (2-3M sales Q3) but will have weaker legs than the Links Awakening remake.
Lifetime sales: ~4M
Fair point, guess i just have a bit more faith in Nintendo and how they would treat the first complete new 2D Zelda in a while and the first featuring playable Zelda. They could have easily sold this a some kind of Princess Peach side story game and give it different name, but its still a Legend of Zelda on the system were the series has reached widest audience and biggest success.
They could have gone the easy route and just gave people those Wind Waker/TP Ports and most would have been happy, yet they are still going with something potentially more ambitious and questionable - so yeah i chose to believe that it can be to 2D Zeldas what Wonder was for 2D Mario, maybe even a way for the younger devs to prove themselves with a different take on the Zelda formula.
Nintendos internal predications are mostly based on the budget and the floor of what a game is expected to sell - so they always going to be lower than what people here are gonna predict.
People and the internet are gonna rally behind this game if its a quality title. Dont underestimate "Zelda" fans, its not just the internet xD
That'strue, but still Link's Awakening is the best selling 2D zelda and Dread is the best selling Metroid (not only 2D, but globally)
I get your points, still to me going by the 6.5mil of Link's Awakening to less than 3mil would be surprising (aka I don't blame OP for not including it), also because it is THE game of the last part of the year for the "core gamers", alongside the larger Switch potential active user base of course
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I think it's worth pointing out that, though Echoes of Wisdom is a top-down game, it is not a 2D game
2D Zelda games take place on a flat plane, with depth and height being illusions created by careful visual design and impassable barriers. This game takes place on a three-dimensional grid comprised of cubes—tables are 0.5 units high, 1 unit wide, and 1 unit deep, while a crate is 1 unit in every direction. Zelda can freely swim up and down in water, as shown when she has a "surface" and "dive" command while ascending through the water blocks
Zelda is capable of genuinely three-dimensional movement. She can walk on top of trees. When she has four triangle charges and the water cubes, she might be able to scale any mountain in the game
It's top-down, but if you think of it as a 2D game you''ll miss what Nintendo is doing here. This is something quite new for the series
2D Zelda games take place on a flat plane, with depth and height being illusions created by careful visual design and impassable barriers. This game takes place on a three-dimensional grid comprised of cubes—tables are 0.5 units high, 1 unit wide, and 1 unit deep, while a crate is 1 unit in every direction. Zelda can freely swim up and down in water, as shown when she has a "surface" and "dive" command while ascending through the water blocks
Zelda is capable of genuinely three-dimensional movement. She can walk on top of trees. When she has four triangle charges and the water cubes, she might be able to scale any mountain in the game
It's top-down, but if you think of it as a 2D game you''ll miss what Nintendo is doing here. This is something quite new for the series
you are right, I was overly-simplifying just to separate it from the "full-AAA-home" episodes (damn, I don't know how to categorize Nintendo games anymore, due to the Switch lol)
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This wasn't aimed at you in particular, it's about general discussions
People will just call 2D when they actually mean top-down. It's a lost battle.
ALBW played a lot with the Y axis but still is called 2D Zelda.
Thats exactly my prediction too.
Don't really see much of a reason for this to necessarily break out besides Zelda being the MC. If nothing else this should be a decent barometer for how representative the online demand for playable Zelda is. There is potential downside in trying out a newer direction but at this stage it doesn't seem like it's going to end up subpar. The biggest hurdle is being the 2nd 2D top down Zelda on Switch and it being year 8, but with how strong software sales still are I think it will perform very strongly compared to most late cycle Nintendo games. Voted 5M.
Skyward Sword HD is a simple remaster of the most controversial Zelda game ever and it still sold over 4.15M copies as of 1.5 years ago. It's legs weren't very strong, but it should still be closer to 4.5M than to 4M now. This is a fully new game, with no bagage like that and is likely to get much more positive reception.
None of this makes any sense.
Why do A Link to the Past fans matter here in any significant capacity? And it's not like fans of BotW only like BotW and games that are 100% the same and don't play any other games.
It still very clearly has the typical Zelda gameplay loop with exploration, combat and puzzles. If it's "Zelda, but only in name" then BotW and TotK aren't Zelda games and Zelda II, Four Swords, Four Swords Adventures and Tri Force Heroes aren't either. When ALttP first released you might have said the same about that one.
The golden Switch Lite won't move a million units, that's ridiculous. And even if it did, why would a million people only get the game if it's bundled with the hardware but not at all otherwise?
Excitement for the game is very big right now. It'll have no problem selling over 2M at launch, I bet. It's releasing in the last week of September, so we'll know exactly what it's launch will look like.
Edit: From what I read here now Link's Awakening shipped 3.13M in it's first 10 days. Echoes of Wisdom has 5 days in the quarter. I predict around 3M for that.
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The late argument is a bit odd this time around, is not like we are in the Wii-WiiU era where backwards compatibility was just that, playing your old games. Will see many of these games getting upgrades (of varying qualities, i guess...) which might give the game new life on the next system.
This artstyle with better quality texture, lighting and 1440p/4k can be a game changer, and marketing can do that.
This artstyle with better quality texture, lighting and 1440p/4k can be a game changer, and marketing can do that.
And what you stated is highly illogical.
seeing the fans of botw take wont bite takes is kind of odd. My friends who got into zelda with botw are telling me they are getting this day 1. and yes these friends had no interest in playing skyward sword hd
Anyway I think this does 10 million also and probably 3 million launch week
Anyway I think this does 10 million also and probably 3 million launch week
A cherished classic featuring Link vs a new concept with completely different gameplay as a different character.
There’s such a thing as agreeing to disagree. Neither of these are.
Of Link's Awakening, since it plays almost the exact same but with a new gimmick. It doesn't matter if it takes place on a different map or if it's not narratively connected to it, or are we going to say Majora's Mask isn't a sequel?
Majora's Mask is narratively a direct sequel to Ocarina of Time. I don't even know what you're trying to say.
Echoes of Wisdom very obviously does not play almost exactly the same. It simply doesn't. Not only is combat is approached completely differently in EoW, that "gimmick" is very clearly leading to a very different way puzzles are going to be approached, closer to BotW and TotK than any other Zelda game.
Skyward Sword is an excellent game despite it's linearity, it's a shame more peoplearent willing to get into it.
3 million for launch week isn't realistic when SMB Wonder took 10 days to get to 4 million coming right off the Mario Movie and closer to the holidays
What?, MM plays exactly the same as OoT, even with the new forms, TotK plays exactly the same as BotW apart from the creation aspect, on top of looking exactly the same, both of those games are the definition of iterative sequels, Metroid Prime and it's sequels are another example.
This game plays nothing like LA, how you interact with the world is completely different.
Anyway, all of these games are releasing way too late in the life of the platform to break any records, and no, these games will not have the same legs even if backwards compatible with the new system as Switch games released in 2017-2020, when they have to compete other Switch backward compatible games on top of brand new Succ games.
I don't know, man. If you see the typical Zelda gameplay loop in Echoes of Wisdom, then I don't know what to tell you anymore. The list of games you used as other examples of "it's Zelda, but only in name" is all over the place and therefore completely incoherent.
The reason why A Link to the Past matters is because it is the quintessential top-down Zelda game. It retained and refined the concept of the original The Legend of Zelda which is rough by today's standards while ALttP is truly timeless. There's demand for this type of Zelda formula, but Echoes of Wisdom isn't like that, so it will be challenging for it to draw from this pool of established fans.
I'd sooner say this game takes more from LBW where you manipulate the world to achieve your goal.
Not sure why the parallel is to LA aside from the similar art style from the remake. LA is a linear game, LBW was psuedo non-linear and this appears to likely be entirely non-linear.
Not sure why the parallel is to LA aside from the similar art style from the remake. LA is a linear game, LBW was psuedo non-linear and this appears to likely be entirely non-linear.
the only negative i can see on this game sales is simply it is releasing at tail end of switch life. Outside that, i don't see this game not doing well.
The freedom to solve puzzle and potential memes stuff to do things can lead to viral social media stuff lol.
The freedom to solve puzzle and potential memes stuff to do things can lead to viral social media stuff lol.
We haven't seen enough to know what the general gameplay loop will be. I'm actually surprised people are so definitely saying what the game is or is not at this point. Structurally it's hard to know what this game will present but at least to me, on first glance it still looks like a Zelda game.
I don't see how we know Echoes won't channel any of the spirit of other 2D Zelda games. Zelda is at its most popular right now and ALttP is over 30 years old. I don't think comparisons to that game will be the end all be all for potential buyers. I bought Link's Awakening Remake and I think Echoes of Wisdom looks a lot more interesting than that game. And A Link to the Past was my favourite Zelda game before Breath and Tears released.
I think you're being a bit too stringent on what people who like Zelda have as expectations. I think this will depend more on if the game is good and not so much, whether Zelda swings a sword and collects a boomerang.
Either way, less than 3 million puts this in the range of the Xenoblades and average Yoshi games. I find it hard to believe that's the range unless the game is bad .
"Zelda in name only" is a patently absurd claim. The game is a top-down perspective action-puzzle game, the core of multiple mainline games including the first entry. Switching out the character and their primary weapon does not change the fact that you wander between an overworld and underworld/dungeons, gain items or abilities that help you traverse that overworld via simple puzzle-solving, to reach the next item/ability. That is the Zelda loop, not "press button to generate a melee hitbox in front of your character", which is an absurd reduction that spans so many videogames as to be meaningless. You've just decided you dislike it Because Weapons, and you have also decided that positive social media reception is a mere "bubble" that will not actually buy the game , but a tiny minority of the audience have Legitimate Concerns that must be catered to, despite the objective metrics about engagement with this game so far.
Any upper limit of this game's sales is due to the Switch's current lifespan, not a themed Switch Lite.
I don't know, man. If you don't see the typical Zelda gameplay loop in Echoes of Wisdom, then I don't know what to tell you anymore.
/(half)jk
I mean: we have some gameplay changes of course, based on the "copycat-baton" but also:
exploration of Hyrule-like landscape
environmental puzzle-solving
combat (is there, even if you are not using a sword)
we dont know (or am I wrong?) if there will be actual dungeons, but it still seems pretty Zelda-like
it's not a platform, it's not an action, it's not something else, but seems like a small deviation from the usual adventure-like play pattern to me
the gameplay feeling I've got is akin the Phantom Zelda phases of Phantom Hourglass
It's early days but I totally could see it doing so. It has the best individual metrics of any game out of the Direct, its getting an amazing groundswell of support online, and the new gameplay style and playable Zelda are huge hooks for the game. It also has the benefit of being a brand new game over a remake. The main thing going against it is being a very late Switch release, but I'm bullish on the game.
I was monitoring how EOW reveal video on NOA channel compares to LA: Remake reveal and it's a little bit ahead. After 3 days LA had 2.6M and EOW is with 2.7M. Likes proportion almost the same. 3.7% for LA and 3.8% for EOW.
Iterative?
well im thinking it'll be more frontloaded than a 2d mario would be obviously.
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Yeah my socials immediately lit up with art and memes about the echoes and it being "The Legend of Link" now that you play as Zelda instead of Link.
Youtube views and such are also doing very well. Def off to a very positive pre release start so far.
Are Nintendo youtube videos also frontloaded these days? 
For some reason NOA LA Remake surpassed EOW 6 days viewership. 3.1M vs 2.8M. Maybe given the direct thirsty it reached people faster this time.
Another interesting thing is that NOA channel had 5.1M subscribers by then and now it has 9.54M. Had no idea it had such growth in 5 years. Switch gen is another league for Nintendo. This probably also helped the video to reach more people faster.
For some reason NOA LA Remake surpassed EOW 6 days viewership. 3.1M vs 2.8M. Maybe given the direct thirsty it reached people faster this time.
Another interesting thing is that NOA channel had 5.1M subscribers by then and now it has 9.54M. Had no idea it had such growth in 5 years. Switch gen is another league for Nintendo. This probably also helped the video to reach more people faster.
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There's so many factors that go into youtube views like this, you can't read that much into it. Was Link's Awakening's trailer on the trending tab longer, did the algorithm push it more, was it used as ads by Nintendo? 3.1 vs 2.8 is negligible at this point.Are Nintendo youtube videos also frontloaded these days?
For some reason NOA LA Remake surpassed EOW 6 days viewership. 3.1M vs 2.8M. Maybe given the direct thirsty it reached people faster this time.
Another interesting thing is that NOA channel had 5.1M subscribers by then and now it has 9.54M. Had no idea it had such growth in 5 years. Switch gen is another league for Nintendo. This probably also helped the video to reach more people faster.
Anecdotal information, but a friend of mine who's absolutely out of the gaming world (she's never even owned a videogame in her life) just told me today that she had seen the latest Zelda game and she wanted it. I don't even know how the trailer reached her, but Nintendo might have another winner with this game.
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One thing that I have noticed is how put off some people are by the combat, and how that can be a deterrent to the sales of the game.
Personally, I don't get it. The combat in Zelda has always been middling at best. The game has always been about exploration over anything, and to me the game can have heeps of it.
I'm kinda excited to be honest, I loved BOTW and TOTK but personally I'm really tired of that formula after 2 massive, massive games, and just want to play something different in the franchise.
Personally, I don't get it. The combat in Zelda has always been middling at best. The game has always been about exploration over anything, and to me the game can have heeps of it.
I'm kinda excited to be honest, I loved BOTW and TOTK but personally I'm really tired of that formula after 2 massive, massive games, and just want to play something different in the franchise.
Zelda, Doom and Astro Bot were the top wishlisted games of the summer showcases
Updated: The Legend of Zelda: Echoes of Wisdom, Doom: The Dark Ages and Astro Bot are the three most wishlisted games s…
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I don't see the game selling less than 5M to be honest. Should be very close it by the end of the year.
Tell me you only use items in Zelda for puzzle solving and the enemies imune to sword without saying it. 
I played all single-player Zelda games and as times goes, I've been relying less and less on the sword, specially top down Zelda.
And that gameplay is very similar to other top down Zelda, including combat when you're using items. This games feels like ALBW got it's TotK-like sequel, but forcing the combat to focus on throwing/shooting fused items/weapons/arrows and making enemies attack each other instead of swinging fused melee weapons. Oh, and the MC is actually named Zelda this time.
There were plenty of praises to how you could be imaginative in BotW fights (while enemies had little HP, at least), so the reception to the no-sword combat could go either way. And I'm doubtful using another iconic character is a problem, specially the one the series is named after.
This game sales will be very interesting to keep track, cause I'm at loss to what poll option I find more likely, most of them feel just as likely
I played all single-player Zelda games and as times goes, I've been relying less and less on the sword, specially top down Zelda.
And that gameplay is very similar to other top down Zelda, including combat when you're using items. This games feels like ALBW got it's TotK-like sequel, but forcing the combat to focus on throwing/shooting fused items/weapons/arrows and making enemies attack each other instead of swinging fused melee weapons. Oh, and the MC is actually named Zelda this time.
There were plenty of praises to how you could be imaginative in BotW fights (while enemies had little HP, at least), so the reception to the no-sword combat could go either way. And I'm doubtful using another iconic character is a problem, specially the one the series is named after.
This game sales will be very interesting to keep track, cause I'm at loss to what poll option I find more likely, most of them feel just as likely
I'm voting 8M lifetime, based on the assumptions that 1) NG Switch will be backwards compatible with Switch titles, and 2) EOW will be an "evergreen" title that just slowly and steadily ticks up over time. First year maybe 3-4M?
Reasoning:
1) The response has been net positive from the TotK group on Facebook that is extremely heavily populated by new fans from the Wild/Tears era. I'm even seeing a lot of them saying they plan to, or asking if they should, play LAHD before EOW is released, so it even seems to be driving some of those new casual fans to become newly interested in a 2019 release. Which leads into...
2) There are long droughts between mainline Zelda games and I constantly see people who are impatient for the next big release decide to delve into older titles to tide themselves over, which is what drives a lot of the long fat tail evergreen sales of Zelda titles. People who weren't that excited by it at launch eventually reach a point where a lack of other games high on their priority list and a vague itch for the Zelda universe will cause them to stretch their gaming parameters and try a title that's not quite like what they usually go for. I think being available on Switch, playable on NG Switch (see assumption #1), and being new enough to play like a modern game in terms of QOL features will make EOW a top candidate for those restless Zelda fans looking for something they haven't played yet that isn't too drastically different or hard to obtain because it's stuck on a system they don't own.
3) Wild/Tears really broke out with the cozy gaming communities over the last 5 years as those communities came into existence. The chibi art style will play well with cozy gamers' sense of aesthetics, as will the crafty/building aspects. There were a ton of cozy gamers who had never played a game with combat before Wild/Tears and I frequently saw people who were interested in BotW because they kept seeing it recommended so much, but hesitating and asking questions along the lines of, "Is the combat hard/Will I be able to play it if I don't have any experience with combat games?" If the game does turn out to be more 80/20 puzzles/combat instead of 50/50, that's only going to appeal to this community more, and I could see those kinds of questions start to receive recommendations like, "If you're not sure about BotW/TotK combat, try EOW first, it's a smaller game with less reliance on combat but will still give you some practice to ease in."
The $60 price tag will probably have the biggest downward influence on first-year sales, but I imagine after 2-3 years they'll start marking it down to $35 or $40 two or three times a year when they do their big first-party sales and that's what'll keep evergreen sales chugging along.
Reasoning:
1) The response has been net positive from the TotK group on Facebook that is extremely heavily populated by new fans from the Wild/Tears era. I'm even seeing a lot of them saying they plan to, or asking if they should, play LAHD before EOW is released, so it even seems to be driving some of those new casual fans to become newly interested in a 2019 release. Which leads into...
2) There are long droughts between mainline Zelda games and I constantly see people who are impatient for the next big release decide to delve into older titles to tide themselves over, which is what drives a lot of the long fat tail evergreen sales of Zelda titles. People who weren't that excited by it at launch eventually reach a point where a lack of other games high on their priority list and a vague itch for the Zelda universe will cause them to stretch their gaming parameters and try a title that's not quite like what they usually go for. I think being available on Switch, playable on NG Switch (see assumption #1), and being new enough to play like a modern game in terms of QOL features will make EOW a top candidate for those restless Zelda fans looking for something they haven't played yet that isn't too drastically different or hard to obtain because it's stuck on a system they don't own.
3) Wild/Tears really broke out with the cozy gaming communities over the last 5 years as those communities came into existence. The chibi art style will play well with cozy gamers' sense of aesthetics, as will the crafty/building aspects. There were a ton of cozy gamers who had never played a game with combat before Wild/Tears and I frequently saw people who were interested in BotW because they kept seeing it recommended so much, but hesitating and asking questions along the lines of, "Is the combat hard/Will I be able to play it if I don't have any experience with combat games?" If the game does turn out to be more 80/20 puzzles/combat instead of 50/50, that's only going to appeal to this community more, and I could see those kinds of questions start to receive recommendations like, "If you're not sure about BotW/TotK combat, try EOW first, it's a smaller game with less reliance on combat but will still give you some practice to ease in."
The $60 price tag will probably have the biggest downward influence on first-year sales, but I imagine after 2-3 years they'll start marking it down to $35 or $40 two or three times a year when they do their big first-party sales and that's what'll keep evergreen sales chugging along.