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Zelda: Echoes of Wisdom Lifetime Sales Expectations

Echoes of Wisdom will sell lifetime roughly

  • Around 3mil

    Votes: 9 4.0%

  • 4mil

    Votes: 28 12.4%

  • 5mil

    Votes: 58 25.7%

  • 6mil

    Votes: 41 18.1%

  • 7mil

    Votes: 34 15.0%

  • 8mil

    Votes: 28 12.4%

  • 9mil

    Votes: 9 4.0%

  • 10mil

    Votes: 19 8.4%
  • Total voters
    226
Tbone5189

Tbone5189

Member
Analyst
What are your predictions and expectations for Zelda: Echoes of Wisdom?



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Game is releasing in a few months, this is one of two 2D Zelda games released for the nsw with this one being an original title in comparison to the remake (Links Awakening) which released back in 2019. That game thanks to the "Nsw effect"has become the best selling 2D Zelda coming close to 7mil lifetime!



Despite being a new title, second games released on the same system tend to sell less than the first but will it happen here? What are your Lifetime Worldwide expectations for the title?



Just to add a few notes before posting your predictions...



*Second 2D game released on NSW
*Starring  Link Zelda as the main protagonist
*Still Very Puzzle based game despite the mechanic difference
*Releasing special Edition Zlite with the game

And to top off some sales comparsion...

6.63mil: Links Awakening [NSW]
6.51mil: Zelda [NES]
4.61mil: A Link to the Past [SNES]
4.26mil: A Link Between Worlds [3DS]
3.99mil: Oracle of Ages/Seasons [GBC]
3.83mil: Links Awakening [GBC]

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POST your predictions below
 
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This wouldn't be a prediction thread without any outlandish predictions, I think this game gonna sell 10mil+, y'all predict your safe 4-5mil predictions lol. Nintendo knows what's up and they have the Zlite backing it up!

4320747-switchlite.jpeg


10,000,000.000
 
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I think the reviews will be a major fact in the sales.
If the game is outstanding, my prediction is 5/7 millions copies.
If not….3/4 millions copies.
 
I am expecting 8+ million. Two factors in its favor, Playable Zelda and its a New Game.

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An interesting thing on Nintendo of America's channel, the trailer was #2 yesterday on overall trending (behind the direct) and its #4 as of a couple of minutes ago. Those numbers don't mean much, but consider the overall direct is 4+million people seems to be resonating with the trailer
 
At least 5M I think, but not more than 7M. Could possibly end up on par with Link's Awakening, but that depends on the quality. There's no chance it ends up below 4M though.
 
5 to 6m if u ask me. I think thats the safe prediction. Hard to imagine it past more than that.
 
4.5 million. It's an iterative sequel on aging hardware, and I think Zelda being the MC does more against it than for it appeal-wise.
 
I'll put it down as "north of Link's Awakening"

People have been waiting a pretty long time to play as Zelda, and I think that'll help position it as one of Nintendo's major releases this year. And if the gameplay systems they've set up work nicely, making for good puzzle design? Oh this one's going to have legs
 
4M I’ve put but can fall either side of that easy. Similar to Links Between Worlds but obviously with the Switch user base it could completely break that however this feels like a central Zelda fan game and less the BotW audience honestly.

I get the ‘people want to play as Zelda’ but I think that’s core fan commentary; they play every game already.
 
unkindlynice said:
4M I’ve put but can fall either side of that easy. Similar to Links Between Worlds but obviously with the Switch user base it could completely break that however this feels like a central Zelda fan game and less the BotW audience honestly.

I get the ‘people want to play as Zelda’ but I think that’s core fan commentary; they play every game already.
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So are you suggesting that a new Zelda game, starring Zelda, built on freeform puzzle solving with a widely applicable and brand-new mechanic, has less appeal to "the BOTW audience" than the Link's Awakening remake?
 
On Switch 1 at least, 5M would be really really good. It's very late in the gen and Link's Awakening already sold a lot for quite a long time so a more casual audience had something to buy already. I'd say anything under 4M would be slightly disappointing and anything over 6 would be incredible.
 
Somewhere in the same ballpark as other recent 2D entries. Not sure there’s much justification for predicting a huge breakout 10+ million sales. Not saying it won’t happen as switch has obviously seen some ludicrous SW performances but right now I don’t see any reason to think that’s likely.
 
I don't see it outselling Switch version of Link's awakening but it won't be far bellow.

Launch sales will likely be stronger given the current Switch install base.
 
Tbone5189 said:
This wouldn't be a prediction thread without any outlandish predictions, I think this game gonna sell 10mil+, y'all predict your safe 4-5mil predictions lol. Nintendo knows what's up and they have the Zlite backing it up!

4320747-switchlite.jpeg


10.00mil for me
Click to expand...
I originally did not want to buy lite - as I have the standard Switch and OLED - but this one looks so good.
 
I voted 5mil

- brand new episode, not remake
- playable Zelda

but

- still "simplified" for the mass market perception, compared to the "AAA" nature of BOTW or TOTK
- late in the life cycle
- different gameplay, more puzzle/less combat
 
My first thought after watching the trailer is 8M.

But realizing that this work was likely outsourced, I reduced it to 6M+, just like LA.

The carefully crafted trailer and Aonuma have indeed raised many people's expectations for this game. The first year sales of the game should be slightly higher than LA.

If we only consider the Switch, its sales should be between 4M and 5M.
 
I think it will sell about 5-8 million, depending on how good the legs are. Maybe it will have som good legs on Switch 2 given that we probably won't have a new Zelda game at all next year so this will be the newest Zelda game available on Switch 2.
 
Wockio said:
4.5 million. It's an iterative sequel on aging hardware, and I think Zelda being the MC does more against it than for it appeal-wise.
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Iterative sequel? Of what game exactly? It's definitely not a direct sequel to any specific Zelda game and does it's own thing in terms of game play mechanics. Not like TotK or Spirit Tracks. It's only the visual style that is the same as with Link's Awakening.

It does seem like it will have more traditional dungeons at least in terms of traditional Zelda things and looking at the trailer there are definitely going to be more items/mechanics than just the wand thingy.
 
I'm thinking around 4 million on the Switch, and maybe adding 2 million more if it releases on the next Switch.
 
SergioPL said:
I think the reviews will be a major fact in the sales.
If the game is outstanding, my prediction is 5/7 millions copies.
If not….3/4 millions copies.
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I think reception both from audience and critics will play a big role.

I’m betting on it being well received like 88+ on Metacritic and tons of memes and content sharing online, so I am saying 8 million.

But I could see it just doing moderately well at 4 million too if it’s a muted reception.

Would be really cool if it broke 10 million though. There is a chance, but I’ll be a little more conservative and say 8 million is the ceiling.
 
Agree that reception might play an important role.

This one is tricky for me. I feel like playable Zelda and no sword/shield might gives to the general public a spin-off vibe. So it makes me look at sales of Hyrule Warriors, Triforce heroes, Cadence of Hyrule...

Using the same artstyle of LA: Remake and not being a traditional Zelda will limit its potential among people who bought LA: Remake.
So the question resides on how the open ended gameplay will attract fans of BOTW/TOTK to a 2D experience.

I feel like if it ends up selling less than 3M I wouldn't be suprised but if sells more than LA I wouldn't be surprised either. So let's be conservative, 5M for me.
 
balgajo said:
This one is tricky for me. I feel like playable Zelda and no sword/shield might gives to the general public a spin-off vibe. So it makes me look at sales of Hyrule Warriors, Triforce heroes, Cadence of Hyrule...
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TriForce Heroes wasn't a spin-off. Nintendo doesn't really declare many of the games spinoffs. the ones that they do tend to not have "The Legend of Zelda" in the title
 
ILikeFeet said:
TriForce Heroes wasn't a spin-off. Nintendo doesn't really declare many of the games spinoffs. the ones that they do tend to not have "The Legend of Zelda" in the title
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I'm aware of this. Just that it gives the impression it isn't a mainline title.
 
If it's a 85-88 MC title than around 5m on OG Switch, if it turns out to be a modern classic and is part of GotY conversations like ALBW on 3DS was I can see it getting relatively close to 8m across all Switch systems.
 
Where's the poll option for under 3m?

I put no stock in a Breath of the Wild effect when we've already seen sales of Skyward Sword HD fall flat. Fans of BotW aren't going to bite and I have a hard time imagining that fans of A Link to the Past will find this good. The trailer already had a bait-and-switch vibe, going from "a new Zelda game is coming" to "it's Zelda, but only in name."

The most important question is if the Switch Lite SKU will come with a copy of Echoes of Wisdom. If it does, then maybe the game can come close to 3m. If it doesn't, then around 2m is the best case scenario.
 
ILikeFeet said:
TriForce Heroes wasn't a spin-off. Nintendo doesn't really declare many of the games spinoffs. the ones that they do tend to not have "The Legend of Zelda" in the title
Click to expand...
They can say Triforce Heroes wasn't a spinoff but the audience sure treated it like it was!
 
AViewtifulMind said:
Where's the poll option for under 3m?

I put no stock in a Breath of the Wild effect when we've already seen sales of Skyward Sword HD fall flat. Fans of BotW aren't going to bite and I have a hard time imagining that fans of A Link to the Past will find this good. The trailer already had a bait-and-switch vibe, going from "a new Zelda game is coming" to "it's Zelda, but only in name."

The most important question is if the Switch Lite SKU will come with a copy of Echoes of Wisdom. If it does, then maybe the game can come close to 3m. If it doesn't, then around 2m is the best case scenario.
Click to expand...
No chance that a 2D Zelda game on Switch sell that low. 2D Zelda games have lower sales potential than 3D Zelda games but not that BIG of a difference. Also the view count of the trailer on social media is big and the response seems much more leaning at the positive spectrum.

Skyward Sword HD did have a positive Switch effect, in the fact that a HD port of a decade old game sold better on the Switch than the original game sold on the Wii.
 
AViewtifulMind said:
Where's the poll option for under 3m?

I put no stock in a Breath of the Wild effect when we've already seen sales of Skyward Sword HD fall flat. Fans of BotW aren't going to bite and I have a hard time imagining that fans of A Link to the Past will find this good. The trailer already had a bait-and-switch vibe, going from "a new Zelda game is coming" to "it's Zelda, but only in name."

The most important question is if the Switch Lite SKU will come with a copy of Echoes of Wisdom. If it does, then maybe the game can come close to 3m. If it doesn't, then around 2m is the best case scenario.
Click to expand...
What makes you think that BotW fans aren't gonna be interesting when they seem to be pushing the same buttons in terms of freedom on how to tackle situations for a 2D Zelda in EoW.

We haven't seen the real hype trailer yet either, if an average Peach game can sell upwards to 3m I don't think a quality actual Zelda game is gonna fall short of that.

EoW is also releasing just before the Holidays and potential Switch 2 bumps - so it should have a very solid sales arc between launch in September, Holidays Nov/Dec and maybe an early Spring Switch 2 launch.

You can say what you want about the Switch audience, but they usually respond quite well to quality first party releases. So if Nintendo delivers on their part in terms of quality and marketing this could be really big.
 
Danny said:
No chance that a 2D Zelda game on Switch sell that low. 2D Zelda games have lower sales potential than 3D Zelda games but not that BIG of a difference. Also the view count of the trailer on social media is big and the response seems much more leaning at the positive spectrum.
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I put no stock in social media either. That's because there's a bubble who will say something positive about the ability to play as Zelda, but actually doesn't care to buy the game.

In order to change my mind about sales expectations, Nintendo will have to release another trailer that shows that Zelda can create echoes of weapons. This should actually be blatantly obvious and logical, that Zelda's magic works not only for furniture, but also objects like weapons. But I expect that we can't have that.

In response to cw_sasuke, there won't be freedom if Zelda can't pick up any weapons. BotW wasn't just about freedom in puzzle solutions, but also plenty of choice in how to tackle enemies.
 
AViewtifulMind said:
In response to cw_sasuke, there won't be freedom if Zelda can't pick up any weapons. BotW wasn't just about freedom in puzzle solutions, but also plenty of choice in how to tackle enemies.
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Freedom is about more than just weapons and she absolutely will have more than enough ways to tackle enemies.

For all we know she might be able to turn into Shiek or alternative Zelda forms later into the game. This is mainline Zelda game and they know what people expect of it.
 
Nah. We need spice

We need an avatar bet thread

Three ranges: 4 million and below, 4-6, and 6+. The winners determine what avatars the losers get
 
AViewtifulMind said:
I put no stock in social media either. That's because there's a bubble who will say something positive about the ability to play as Zelda, but actually doesn't care to buy the game.

In order to change my mind about sales expectations, Nintendo will have to release another trailer that shows that Zelda can create echoes of weapons. This should actually be blatantly obvious and logical, that Zelda's magic works not only for furniture, but also objects like weapons. But I expect that we can't have that.

In response to cw_sasuke, there won't be freedom if Zelda can't pick up any weapons. BotW wasn't just about freedom in puzzle solutions, but also plenty of choice in how to tackle enemies.
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I would be very surprised if it sold only 2 million copies. That would put Echoes of Wisdom close in sales to something like Tri force heroes. I think the Switch has such a big user base that its impossible for it to sell that low.
 
cw_sasuke said:
Freedom is about more than just weapons and she absolutely will have more than enough ways to tackle enemies.

For all we know she might be able to turn into Shiek or alternative Zelda forms later into the game. This is mainline Zelda game and they know what people expect of it.
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Doesn't look like a mainline Zelda game and it also doesn't look like Nintendo knows what people expect. One of the core ingredients of a Zelda game is "get a sword and kill monsters." If Nintendo goes out of their way to remove this - again, it's still possible that Zelda can fight in a conventional way in Echoes of Wisdom - then sales are going to be in trouble. In trouble relative to what people expect in this thread, because Nintendo's internal expectations are probably lower than the average prediction here.
 
unkindlynice said:
Quite literally what I stated.
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Yes, I—I know it's what you said. I was using a rhetorical device to illustrate the elements that Echoes of Wisdom shares with BOTW that Link's Awakening didn't; in terms of design, it's a lot closer to BOTW than Link's Awakening was
 
I think a lot of the fans that want a classic Zelda formula game are hoping that this game flops so that they can get 2D Zelda games following the classic formula. So i think its more their hope than something that will realistically happen.
 
Danny said:
I think a lot of the fans that want a classic Zelda formula game are hoping that this game flops so that they can get 2D Zelda games following the classic formula. So i think its more their hope than something that will realistically happen.
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I feel the opposite will happen. I think it will reach new audiences.

As someone with zero interest with Zelda in general, playable Zelda in a TotK-lite font has intrigued me.
 
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There’s no way this game tops out at 2 million lifetime. 2 million at launch is way more likely. Link’s Awakening did over 6 million lifetime, and that’s a remake.

Like it or not, open-air Zelda seems to have a lot more mainstream appeal than the traditional formula, though more importantly it seems to be the format of Zelda that Aonuma has envisioned all this time. We dunno what the game will fully be like, though.

Zelda bring playable in a mainline game will definitely have people buying, too.
 
AViewtifulMind said:
Where's the poll option for under 3m?

I put no stock in a Breath of the Wild effect when we've already seen sales of Skyward Sword HD fall flat. Fans of BotW aren't going to bite and I have a hard time imagining that fans of A Link to the Past will find this good. The trailer already had a bait-and-switch vibe, going from "a new Zelda game is coming" to "it's Zelda, but only in name."

The most important question is if the Switch Lite SKU will come with a copy of Echoes of Wisdom. If it does, then maybe the game can come close to 3m. If it doesn't, then around 2m is the best case scenario.
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Hasn't SS sold more on Switch than Wii?

And even without being BotW related, and even being a remake, Links Awakening is the best selling 2D/portable game in the series?

Or not, maybe I am wrong
 
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