Your Splatoon 3 Lifetime Sales Expectations in Japan? (10mil possible!?)

[Tbone5189]

Hello and greetings to everyone visiting and participating in this thread! Today and so on we will be discussing the phenomenon of the IP called Splatoon! Before answering how much you expect Splatoon 3 to sell in Japan, let's take a quick look at the splatoon/splatoon 2 and how they fared in Japan!

BEGINNING: Splatoon (WiiU) [1.79mil]

[Pic coming soon]

So in 2015, Nintendo released the game that would not only surprise everyone in a sales perspective but also claim the highest selling spot for the system in Japan... surpassing even that of Mario Kart 8! This IP was the first huge IP in the shooting genre that basically played like no other. Between its addictive gameplay and completely unique style, nothing came close! Going on and selling 1.79mil on an installbase of less than 3.40mil (so over 50% attach ratio)

THE ENDLESS NOW: Splatoon 2 (NSW) [5.11mil and counting]

Releasing 2 years later on the now popular Nsw In 2017, we have splatoon 2. A game which launched over 600k in its first week with an install base of less than 2mil. The game would have such huge legs, but unfortunately due to NSO killing its horrible legs, the game only sold 5.11mil in Japan (as of March 2022). But now we have Splatoon 3 launching and what does that mean for the franchise???.....




Now for the main Topic, your lifetime expectations for Splatoon 3 In Japan and can it reach 10mil? First.........

best-selling games in Japan

1. [NSW] Animal Crossing: New Horizons - 10.19m
2. [GB] Pokémon Red/Green - 8.22m
3. [GB] Pokémon Gold/Silver - 7.30m
4. [NES] Super Mario Bros. - 6.81m
5. [NDS] New Super Mario Bros. - 6.49m
6. [NSW] Super Smash Bros Ultimate - 6.37m
7. [NSW] Mario Kart 8 Dekuxe 6.26m
8. [3DS] Animal Crossing: New Leaf - 5.95
9. [NSW] Pokémon Sword/Shield - 5.84m (+200k untracked)
10. [NDS] Pokémon Diamond/Pearl - 5.85m
11. [NDS] Pokémon Black/White - 5.54m
12. [GBA] Pokémon Ruby/Saphire - 5.40m
13. [NDS] Animal Crossing: Wild World - 5.35m
14. [PSP] Monster Hunter Freedom 3 - 5.30m
15. [NSW] Splatoon 2 - 5.11m

Splatoon 2 already ,made it to top 15 best selling games of all time, and will probably finish at 15th place due to splatoon 3 and pokemon SV overtaking it while it overtakes the current 14th/15th spots!

Splatoon 3 already sold through 3.45mil. A figure no one every even thought possible yet here we are, legs will be telling but again I'll ask this... what are your lifetime expectations for splatoon 3 in Japan? Post your thoughts and answers!

Big shout out to @Nocturnal for seeing how big this could be before me. Check out his thread he made regarding splatoon 3!

BOLD Prediction: Splatoon 3 in Japan Will Become.....

Time to take a page from @Tbone5189 I've noticed that a lot of people in the M-C threads are expecting the latest Pokemon to be the best selling title this year Some seem to think that Splatoon 3 will sell below 5 million lifetime(only Splatoon 2 fans will buy it), so I wanted to check what are...

www.installbaseforum.com

.......

 

[RennanNT]

No 12 mi option, are you really TBone?

 

[Tbone5189]

No 12 mi option, are you really TBone?

AcNH job lol. 10mil would still be almost 2mil more than pokemon GR

 

[Agent42]

8-9.5 million. Second best-selling all-time. I´m a pessimist here.

 

[LunarKnite]

I voted for around 8. I definitely think it can sell more but 8 would be the minimum.

 

[Kirby]

8M. More if it gets a Switch 2 port next year or in 2024.

 

[Malden]

Going with 8. Depending on how legs I may raise it. I did 7 last poll and realized that was low.

 

[LoneRanger]

~8 million, possible overtop pokémon red/green and be the 2nd highest selling game ever in japan.

 

[Aleh]

7m, maaaaaybe 8m

 

[Koni]

8 or 9 million here.

 

[The_Liquid_Laser]

Definitely more than Smash Bros, but definitely less than Animal Crossing. I am not sure whether it will be closer to 8m or 9m, but I went ahead and voted 9m.

 

[wolftendo]

I'll be bold and say 10 million when all it's said and done.
I'll also see it making 20 million WW.

 

[epicene101]

I put my 10M vote down. I’m really feeling 8-9.5M, but I can actually see it leg out to 10M now. No less than 8M though.

 

[Aleh]

Right now I feel people are getting too carried away by the hype of the launch numbers. The game is definitely selling faster, it will definitely sell more, but there’s no reason to assume it’s gonna sell twice as much as Splatoon 2

 

[DrWong]

3.45M reasons to be that optimistic.

The game should be around 6M end of this fiscal year. Give it 3 more years to get to 10 ^^

 

[RennanNT]

Right now I feel people are getting too carried away by the hype of the launch numbers. The game is definitely selling faster, it will definitely sell more, but there’s no reason to assume it’s gonna sell twice as much as Splatoon 2

I don't think anyone is assuming it will sell 10 mi, as if it's a sure thing, we're all just predicting, some with more optimism others with pessimism. And the best opening ever by a decent margin does bring the TBone inside us all.

But IMO, your 7mi prediction is far more unlikely than 10 mi. You're saying that a very well received game on a non-frontloaded genre and with 2+ years of support is only going to sell in the next 5+ years what it sold in 1 single week.

 

[Aleh]

I don't think anyone is assuming it will sell 10 mi, as if it's a sure thing, we're all just predicting, some with more optimism others with pessimism. And the best opening ever by a decent margin does bring the TBone inside us all.

But IMO, your 7mi prediction is far more unlikely than 10 mi. You're saying that a very well received game on a non-frontloaded genre and with 2+ years of support is only going to sell in the next 5+ years what it sold in 1 single week.

7m is still 2 whopping millions over Splatoon 2, and since I said 8m is a maybe too, I implied going over 7m is also likely. It’s good to be optimistic but huge launches late in a console’s life are more expected even if they don’t outsell previous entries in the end. Like Pokémon BW had the biggest opening in Japan for a long time and yet it didn’t even outsell DP

 

[PillFencer]

7m is still 2 whopping millions over Splatoon 2, and since I said 8m is a maybe too, I implied going over 7m is also likely. It’s good to be optimistic but huge launches late in a console’s life are more expected even if they don’t outsell previous entries in the end. Like Pokémon BW had the biggest opening in Japan for a long time and yet it didn’t even outsell DP

Still more than doubled its opening and Splatoon 3 has every reason to be much more leggy than Pokémon BW

 

[Aleh]

Still more than doubled its opening and Splatoon 3 has every reason to be much more leggy than Pokémon BW

Yes, which is why I expect it to outsell Splatoon 2 by a lot!

 

[RennanNT]

7m is still 2 whopping millions over Splatoon 2, and since I said 8m is a maybe too, I implied going over 7m is also likely. It’s good to be optimistic but huge launches late in a console’s life are more expected even if they don’t outsell previous entries in the end. Like Pokémon BW had the biggest opening in Japan for a long time and yet it didn’t even outsell DP

Let's look at your example.

Pokemon Black&White, first week (Sep 2010):
01. / 00. [NDS] Pokemon Black / White (Pokemon Co.) - 2.557.779 / NEW

Pokemon Black&White, CY 2013:
661. [NDS] Pokemon Black # <RPG> (Pokemon Co.) {2010.09.18} (¥4.800) - 5.785 / 2.887.325
637. [NDS] Pokemon White # <RPG> (Pokemon Co.) {2010.09.18} (¥4.800) - 6.262 / 2.629.217
Total by 2013: 5.516.542
Total by 2012: 5.504.495

Even though they released B2W2 in 2012 and XY in 2013, it wasn't available digitally among other reasons we would expect Splatoon 3 have better legs than BW, BW still sold over 2.15x it's first week in the 2 years and 3 months following that.

With identical legs, Splatoon would reach 7.4 in about 2 years and wouldn't stop there unlike BW.

See how 8 mi is more likely a floor than a "maaaaaybe"?

 

[Aleh]

Let's look at your example.

Pokemon Black&White, first week (Sep 2010):
01. / 00. [NDS] Pokemon Black / White (Pokemon Co.) - 2.557.779 / NEW

Pokemon Black&White, CY 2013:
661. [NDS] Pokemon Black # <RPG> (Pokemon Co.) {2010.09.18} (¥4.800) - 5.785 / 2.887.325
637. [NDS] Pokemon White # <RPG> (Pokemon Co.) {2010.09.18} (¥4.800) - 6.262 / 2.629.217
Total by 2013: 5.516.542
Total by 2012: 5.504.495

Even though they released B2W2 in 2012 and XY in 2013, it wasn't available digitally among other reasons we would expect Splatoon 3 have better legs than BW, BW still sold over 2.15x it's first week in the 2 years and 3 months following that.

With identical legs, Splatoon would reach 7.4 in about 2 years and wouldn't stop there unlike BW.

See how 8 mi is more likely a floor than a "maaaaaybe"?

It’s not identical legs, you can’t use multipliers when the initial numbers are so distant. They’re barely comparable situations yes, it was just an example.

 

[RennanNT]

It’s not identical legs, you can’t use multipliers when the initial numbers are so distant. They’re barely comparable situations yes, it was just an example.

Then, how about you explain why your predicted range is more accurate than of those voting 10 mi, rather than just say it can't double S2 sales or that S2 + 2mi is a lot already?

There's no comparable situation. Splatoon was a million seller in a flop console, did over 5 millions in the second entry and opened at 3.45 mi in the 3rd. Pokemon and Mario had an even better start but didn't grow like Splatoon after. Animal Crossing went from almost 6 mi to the best opening ever, so it could be considered close, but the previous game was on another console (3DS) and it was following another 5 mi seller on DS. Splatoon 3 in Japan is simply uncharted territory.

 

[Aleh]

Then, how about you explain why your predicted range is more accurate than of those voting 10 mi, rather than just say it can't double S2 sales or that S2 + 2mi is a lot already?

There's no comparable situation. Splatoon was a million seller in a flop console, did over 5 millions in the second entry and opened at 3.45 mi in the 3rd. Pokemon and Mario had an even better start but didn't grow like Splatoon after. Animal Crossing went from almost 6 mi to the best opening ever, so it could be considered close, but the previous game was on another console (3DS) and it was following another 5 mi seller on DS. Splatoon 3 in Japan is simply uncharted territory.

I’m not saying it’s more accurate lol. I’m saying how I feel, launch numbers sent hype into overdrive. Whether it ends up at 10m or not doesn’t change that. As you said Splatoon 3 is uncharted territory so anything goes.

 

[Tbone5189]

I’m not saying it’s more accurate lol. I’m saying how I feel, launch numbers sent hype into overdrive. Whether it ends up at 10m or not doesn’t change that. As you said Splatoon 3 is uncharted territory so anything goes.

I'm not even sure if hype overdrive is the reason for 8mil being the floor. Let's look at some facts.

Splatoon 2 is around 5.2mil Ltd and end up around 5.3mil-5.4mil

Splatoon 3 end of Sept will be just around that or slightly below in under a month (first 10 days should be 4300k-4500k imo)

Splatoon 3 by end of the year will easily be 6mil+ (I personally think 7mil)

Its genre is very leggy just like smash/AC/etc was/is. Add to the fact we will have 2 years of support and a very huge dlc.

10mil might be high, but anyone expecting under 8mil might have to rethink their prediction. Well regardless we shall see. If splat3 is 7mil by years end, 8mil is not the floor but instead the dirt itself
Lol

 

[BTB123]

9M is in the cards. Not sure about 10M yet.

 

[epicene101]

It’s definitely landing in the 8-10M range for sure. I put my vote in for 10M because I feel like I initially underestimated it last time (a respectable 6-7M). Luckily I always knew that S3 would sell better than S2 not only in Japan, but WW as well, so I don’t feel too bad lol.

I didn’t see that 3.45M in Japan in 3days coming though lol.

 

[Tbone5189]

It’s definitely landing in the 8-10M range for sure. I put my vote in for 10M because I feel like I initially underestimated it last time (a respectable 6-7M). Luckily I always knew that S3 would sell better than S2 not only in Japan, but WW as well, so I don’t feel too bad lol.

I didn’t see that 3.45M in Japan in 3days coming though lol.

No one did, not even my overly the top expectations self lol

 

[Nocturnal]

I already made my prediction on this topic 10M at least in my opinion is assured below are some expectations based on the first two weeks of sales and Nintendo sell-through report

With second week result sell-through is likely between 4.1M & 4.4M depending on the ratio between physical and digital. Meaning that at the shipment is between 4.3M & 4.7M.
With one week left of the Quarter its pretty much certain that next week its unlikely for Famitsu to report less than 200K sales.

1) Famitsu sales will be over 2.6M
2) Shipments + Digital will be over 4.5M
3) Famitsu sales by EOY will end up over 3.75M
4) Shipments + Digital for the year will be higher than 6M

There is simply no way for Splatoon 3 to ship less than 1.5M for the fall quarter this year based on its explosive start.
In fact it's possible with high end results like 5M for this Quarter the actual result at the end of the year to be closer to 7M

Meaning it would need 3-4M in 2023 & 2024 to surpass 10M Shipments in Japan.
In 2018 Splatoon 2 was the best selling evergreen title with 1.12M sales per Famitsu. So for 2023 I think 2M+ shipments is definetly a likely outcome.