From the slides with the 3rdP TRX/engagement matrix.
But its 22M for 1P, 33M total acc, not sure how MSFT accounts any rev/licensing from 3P.
22M*12 = 264M, but that assumes flat every month which I highly doubt. It likely follows how consoles have a huge spike in the holidays.
I'd say similarly, holiday quarter = 50% annual, so 396M.
In terms of units thats ~7.2M over 5M or so XBS.
Sounds about right, UK in 2024 had 0.5M XBS but controller units were 0.75M (Top 20 SKU alone), likely nearer 1M.
Oh, that's April 2022 then, not 2024. Also 1st party is $24.8M there, just controllers are $22.2M. 3rd party must be licensing since it shipped 0 units while making $8.6M, when it was also forecasted for 0 units but $2.7M. Also gross revenue was $33.4M but net revenue is reported as $32.1M with cost of goods at $17.2M and gross margin of $14.9M.
For calendar year 2022, hardware revenue was $3.588B. If we take your assumption of flat every month but 50% is holidays and no discounts, accessories would be just 16% of 2022 hardware revenue. Discounts are going to knock that down to the 10-15% range
A stable 3 months performance to shipped ac
cessories units would be ~1.4M for the quarter and would be more than fair, but would be less than the 1.8M XBS shipped. Revenue would also be ~$96M which would be 14% of the $685M. This would leave $589M for Xbox consoles and at 1.8M units that's an average price of $327. My method of estimating hardware has XBS at $381 MSRP in this quarter which is a 14% difference off that $327. And it's only 14% assuming a flat month to month performance for Xbox accessories.
We can look to PlayStation hardware results where Sony gives us the revenue for console only and a >10% or 10's of $ difference between MSRP and discounted shipment pricing is evident since the PS4 era.
| FY Quarter | Console Revenue Yen (M) | USD Average Exchange | USD Converted | PS4 Units | USD Revenue / Units |
|---|
| FY17 Q1 | $98,315 | 111.1 | $884,923,492 | 3,300,000 | $268.16 |
| FY17 Q2 | $137,398 | 111 | $1,237,819,820 | 4,200,000 | $294.72 |
| FY17 Q3 | $270,653 | 113 | $2,395,159,292 | 9,000,000 | $266.13 |
| FY17 Q4 | $84,258 | 108.4 | $777,287,823 | 2,500,000 | $310.92 |
| FY18 Q1 | $98,920 | 109.1 | $906,691,109 | 3,200,000 | $283.34 |
| FY18 Q2 | $126,534 | 111.5 | $1,134,834,081 | 3,900,000 | $290.98 |
| FY18 Q3 | $223,476 | 112.9 | $1,979,415,412 | 8,100,000 | $244.37 |
| FY18 Q4 | $78,771 | 110.3 | $714,152,312 | 2,600,000 | $274.67 |
| FY19 Q1 | $101,614 | 109.9 | $924,604,186 | 3,200,000 | $288.94 |
| FY19 Q2 | $78,850 | 107.4 | $734,171,322 | 2,800,000 | $262.20 |
| FY19 Q3 | $148,472 | 108.8 | $1,364,632,353 | 6,000,000 | $227.44 |
| FY19 Q4 | $42,975 | 109 | $394,266,055 | 1,400,000 | $281.62 |
| FY20 Q1 | $55,525 | 107.6 | $516,031,599 | 1,900,000 | $271.60 |
| FY20 Q2 | $41,461 | 106.2 | $390,404,896 | 1,500,000 | $260.27 |
| FY Quarter | Console Revenue Yen (M) | USD Average Exchange | USD Converted | PS5 & 4 Units | USD Revenue / Units |
|---|
| FY20 Q3 | $237,832 | 104.5 | $2,275,904,306 | 5,900,000 | $385.75 |
| FY20 Q4 | $180,818 | 105.9 | $1,707,440,982 | 4,300,000 | $397.08 |
| FY21 Q1 | $120,629 | 109.5 | $1,101,634,703 | 2,800,000 | $393.44 |
| FY21 Q2 | $160,635 | 110.1 | $1,458,991,826 | 3,500,000 | $416.85 |
| FY21 Q3 | $201,534 | 113.7 | $1,772,506,596 | 4,100,000 | $432.32 |
| FY21 Q4 | $106,664 | 116.1 | $918,725,237 | 2,100,000 | $437.49 |
| FY22 Q1 | $131,861 | 129.4 | $1,019,018,547 | 2,500,000 | $407.61 |
| FY22 Q2 | $179,245 | 138.2 | $1,296,997,106 | 3,300,000 | $393.03 |
| FY22 Q3 | $440,715 | 141.7 | $3,110,197,601 | 7,100,000 | $438.06 |
| FY22 Q4 | $371,699 | 132.3 | $2,809,516,251 | 6,300,000 | $445.95 |
| FY23 Q1 | $186,985 | 137 | $1,364,854,015 | 3,300,000 | $413.59 |
| FY23 Q2 | $287,514 | 144.4 | $1,991,094,183 | 4,900,000 | $406.35 |
| FY23 Q3 | $474,260 | 147.9 | $3,206,626,099 | 8,200,000 | $391.05 |
| FY23 Q4 | $262,693 | 148.2 | $1,772,557,355 | 4,500,000 | $393.90 |
| FY24 Q1 | $146,348 | 155.6 | $940,539,846 | 2,400,000 | $391.89 |
| FY24 Q2 | $218,224 | 149.5 | $1,459,692,308 | 3,800,000 | $384.13 |
| FY24 Q3 | $584,806 | 152.2 | $3,842,352,168 | 9,500,000 | $404.46 |
| FY24 Q4 | $183,308 | 152.6 | $1,201,231,979 | 2,800,000 | $429.01 |
So thanks for reminding me of this slide. If anything it goes to confirm my stance that MSRP pricing would account for accessories and bulk pricing for Xbox.
And to the UK point, you're counting third party accessories when Microsoft doesn't as unit sales. This is what Microsoft accessories in the top 20 sold each year, also did Sony accessories as well. Also you can't assume that accessory units haven't declined for Xbox since 2022, if anything the following table suggests they have.
| Year | Xbox accessory sales in UK top 20 | PS5 accessory sales in UK top 20 |
|---|
| 2021 | 755,055 | 1,336,814 |
| 2022 | 750,025 | 1,094,600 |
| 2023 | 710,790 | 1,187,893 |
| 2024 | 646,831 | 1,303,819 |
So we know this is the actual leak and confirmed shipments by MSFT:
1. Q4 2020 + Q1 2021 was 4.6M.
2. Q3 2021 + Q4 2021 + Q1 2022 was 7.8M.
Where's this bit from?
3. Q3 2021 + Q4 2021 + Q1 2022 + Q2 2022 was 9.6M.
9.6M was the target for FY22 as stated by Phil Spencer in a December 4, 2020 email (EXHIBIT PX1145):
As a team we are starting to work through our FY22 plan. Right now we have 9.6M consoles in our FY22 plan, 31M Xbox Game Pass sub ending balance and 22.5M game streaming entitlements.
We know they had 7.8M for FY22 Q1-3, meaning they only had to ship to 1.8M in Q4 to hit the target. We also know XBS out shipped PS5 for a quarter in calendar year 2021
per Jim Ryan with the only quarter making sense to have happened was the holidays (so XBS bare minimum shipped 4.0M that Q) leaving <3.8M across FY22 Q1 and Q3, an average of <1.9M. Hardware revenue for each quarter of FY22:
Q1 (Jul-Sep 2021): $710M (average of <1.9M XBS split with Q3)
Q2 (Oct-Dec 2021): $1587M (at least 4.0M XBS)
Q3 (Jan-Mar 2022): $725M (average of <1.9M XBS split with Q1)
Q4 (Apr-Jun 2022): $685M
All of that lines up with Q4 being 1.8M to fill out the 9.6M plan and it being on track to do just that.
