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Xbox + Microsoft FY23 Q4 Results: Total Gaming +1% ($3.491B), Content & Services +5% (Game Pass growth), Hardware -13%

Concurseiro do Futuro said:
Your prediction for Q1? Could Starfield move 2 million consoles?
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Based on what Microsoft forecasts, this is what I calc'd

Total Revenue: 3.8B
Content and Service: 3.0B
Hardware: 0.8B

That hardware would be flat from 2022, but now that there are bundles, and Starfield should at least get a $560 Series X bundle, that'll put hardware units down YOY. I would say 1.7M at best case, with no special edition higher priced Starfield bundle.

Not sure on my own prediction for the quarter, but ~2M would be needed to be good.

Xbox 360 during the Halo 3 quarter shipped 1.8M then 4.3M the next. Peak Xbox One Q1's should be a little under 2M.
 
Lelouch0612 said:
They made the bad call of allocating Series X stock to build up their Cloud initiative, when it would have been way more benefitial to release to consumers.
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Didn't that ended last year?

enpleinjour said:
Continue to be shocked at how a console in full year 3 can have decline in hardware sales (well revenue in this case, but sales threads point to unit decline as well).

Screenshot-2023-07-26-at-00-06-49.png

To put this into perspective, these are usually the peak years of hardware revenue. Prices largely go down from here, as we see with the XB1 gen.

Big miss versus internal expectations
  • Expected +10-15% C&S, got +5%
  • Expected +5% total, got +1%
Next quarter is what is really surprising. Starfield launch, the biggest Xbox exclusive since like Halo 3 in 2007, and the guidance is shockingly low in both hardware and software:
  • Total, +5%
  • C&S, 5-9%
  • From this we can work out hardware expectations for the Q:
    • -10% to +5%
Despite releasing Starfield, MSFT is forecasting at most a 5% increase in hardware revenue and even takes the possibility of a decline in hardware revenue.
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enpleinjour said:
Assuming ~10% decline in unit sales and similar US to WW ratio as prior full years we get 1.15-1.25M sold (not shipped)



Thats because their hardware revenue has already collapsed. More price cuts will result in a place half of what XB1 did in a few years.

Screenshot-2023-07-26-at-00-06-49.png
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Hardware sales are really atrocious
 


Microsoft's latest 10-K filing gives definitive numbers on Xbox's FY23 earnings.The division made $15.466 billion in FY23, down $764 million year-over-year.The decrease in revenues was driven by a reduction of $325m in content & services, and $409 million reduction in HW.
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Does anyone know what the Q2 software numbers have looked like in the EU, UK and US?

I got 1% growth in the US for April and May, does include mobile.

Quick searches looks like
UK
Apr -8%
May +30%
June +7%

EU
Apr - 5.3%
May +33%
June +20%

These software numbers are full unit numbers and obviously not representative of all software content.
 
reksveks said:
Does anyone know what the Q2 software numbers have looked like in the EU, UK and US?

I got 1% growth in the US for April and May, does include mobile.

Quick searches looks like
UK
Apr -8%
May +30%
June +7%

EU
Apr - 5.3%
May +33%
June +20%

These software numbers are full unit numbers and obviously not representative of all software content.
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Europe Software (Q2 2023) :

F1d14nqWIAAJIkg
 
Baki said:
No. ABK only adds $7-8B in revenue. Xbox revenue will be between $15-16B. So the range is $22B-24B. Expectations will be sky high for Phil.
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I believe ABK is forecasting ~U$10 billion revenue for this FY.
 
1st_horseman said:
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I edited the post to include the transcription of the content of the quoted tweet, but it would be very appreciated if you (as well as all the members of the forum) could copy-paste and put in quote the text from the tweets you share from now on; it's all for archivial purposes, especially when dealing with the the worst-case-scenario where the original sources disappear in one way or another (especially in the case of Twitter given...let's just say recent events).

This is actually a forum's guidance has been introduced a few months ago, as can be seen here
 
Baki said:
Do you mind sharing. Did a quick scan of their Q2 report and couldn’t see any forecasts. I thought they stopped forecasting due to the impending sale.
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www.installbaseforum.com

Activision Blizzard Q2 CY2023 Financial Results

https://investor.activision.com/news-releases/news-release-details/activision-blizzard-announces-second-quarter-2023-financial Second Quarter Net Bookings Grew 50% Year-Over-Year Second Quarter GAAP Operating Income and Segment Operating Income Each Grew Over 70% Year-Over-Year Blizzard...
www.installbaseforum.com www.installbaseforum.com

I just saw on this forum. They already made more than U$4 billion this year, and CoD didn't even come out. They should do more than U$10 billion.
 
Final Fantasy 14 coming to XBOX:


Square Enix CEO Takashi Kiryu thanks Phil Spencer as being "the reason" Final Fantasy XIV is coming to Xbox Series X|S.Phil also stated to "expect more Final Fantasy content on Xbox".
 
Concurseiro do Futuro said:
www.installbaseforum.com

Activision Blizzard Q2 CY2023 Financial Results

https://investor.activision.com/news-releases/news-release-details/activision-blizzard-announces-second-quarter-2023-financial Second Quarter Net Bookings Grew 50% Year-Over-Year Second Quarter GAAP Operating Income and Segment Operating Income Each Grew Over 70% Year-Over-Year Blizzard...
www.installbaseforum.com www.installbaseforum.com

I just saw on this forum. They already made more than U$4 billion this year, and CoD didn't even come out. They should do more than U$10 billion.
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Don’t see a forecast for $10 billion? Their record year was 2021, which was $8B, I’d be surprised to see growth to $10B in FY24 due to the cooling in the gaming market when compared to FY21.
 
The Hunter said:
I mean ff14 on Xbox was already being talked for years.
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It's a bit different when 1. a formal announcement rather than something mentioned in interviews and 2. it's the head of Xbox and executives from SE shaking hands on stage. Like the statement from Square Enix during the presentation about "planning to bring our games to Xbox for players to enjoy" is too vague to suggest that the FF7R trilogy or FFXVI is coming but, they outright state FFXIV is coming.
 
Astrogamer said:
It's a bit different when 1. a formal announcement rather than something mentioned in interviews and 2. it's the head of Xbox and executives from SE shaking hands on stage. Like the statement from Square Enix during the presentation about "planning to bring our games to Xbox for players to enjoy" is too vague to suggest that the FF7R trilogy or FFXVI is coming but, they outright state FFXIV is coming.
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i think ff7 remake and ff16 eventually might come to xbox, the problem is that they will come much later than the PS version . For FF16 and ff7 rebirth I wouldn't be surprised if they came to xbox at the end of the generation in 2027 or 2028.

And think it will be the same for FF17 , ff7 remake part 3 and maybe some other square games as long Sony will pay Square to have them exclusively for a long period of time.
 
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Astrogamer said:
It's a bit different when 1. a formal announcement rather than something mentioned in interviews and 2. it's the head of Xbox and executives from SE shaking hands on stage. Like the statement from Square Enix during the presentation about "planning to bring our games to Xbox for players to enjoy" is too vague to suggest that the FF7R trilogy or FFXVI is coming but, they outright state FFXIV is coming.
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hey it's apparently not news even though this is the only concrete thing we've heard in years and in between those years we were met with pure silence. not news, just saying.
 
While this could turn into an EA "unprecendent partnership" WiiU situation, I think it's far more plausible that SE has probably been planning to bring more titled to Xbox for awhile and this is just the formal announcement of it. It's hard to imagine Sony paid for lifetime exclusivity deals for things like 7R, Forspoken, or 16 despite how people sometimes act about it online. At some point SE was going to be able to port those games to Xbox (and possible the Switch successor).
 
awng782 said:
This has nothing to do with this thread topic, but I really really doubt Star Wars Jedi Fallen Order has sold more digitally than Hogwarts Legacy.
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This is only in Europe, and digital data is given directly by companies so 0 chance it’s wrong.
 
Welfare said:
My shipment (not sell through) estimates for Xbox hardware

This quarter: ~1.2M

Xbox 360 official (launch aligned): 20.3M
Xbox Series total: ~23.9M
Xbox One total (launch aligned): ~24.7M
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What are your estimates per quarter?

Using your revenue hardware chart my estimates for shipped are below. I am about 1 million under, which quarters did i under estimate?

Oct - Dec 20: 3.1M
Jan - Mar 21: 1.5M
Apr - Jun 21: 1.8M
Jul - Sep 21: 1.7M
Oct - Dec 21: 3.6M
Jan - Mar 22: 1.8M
Apr - Jun 22: 1.6M
Jul - Sep 22: 1.9M
Oct - Dec 22: 3.2M
Jan - Mar 23: 1.3M
Apr - Jun 23: 1.4M

Total: 22.9M
 
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Luminoth 4545 said:
What are your estimates per quarter?

Using your revenue hardware chart my estimates for shipped are below. I am about 1 million under, which quarters did i under estimate?

Oct - Dec 20: 3.1M
Jan - Mar 21: 1.5M
Apr - Jun 21: 1.8M
Ju; - Sep 21: 1.7M
Oct - Dec 21: 3.6M
Jan - Mar 22: 1.8M
Apr - Jun 22: 1.6M
Jul - Sep 22: 1.9M
Oct - Dec 22: 3.2M
Jan - Mar 23: 1.3M
Apr - Jun 23: 1.4M

Total: 22.9M
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The big difference would be down to Q4 2021. S did way better than the X that holiday. Beyond that it's just slight variance quarter to quarter.
 
Astrogamer said:
It's a bit different when 1. a formal announcement rather than something mentioned in interviews and 2. it's the head of Xbox and executives from SE shaking hands on stage. Like the statement from Square Enix during the presentation about "planning to bring our games to Xbox for players to enjoy" is too vague to suggest that the FF7R trilogy or FFXVI is coming but, they outright state FFXIV is coming.
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They literally did the same thing with FF series coming to GP... and then SE had FF16, FF7R2, Forspoken as exclusives and removed FF from GP iirc.

As always, its a money thing. If Xbox pays up, I'm sure SE will follow. And if Sony pays for exclusivity then Xbox needs to counter offer or pay up to get the titles later on.

Luminoth 4545 said:
What are your estimates per quarter?

Using your revenue hardware chart my estimates for shipped are below. I am about 1 million under, which quarters did i under estimate?

Oct - Dec 20: 3.1M
Jan - Mar 21: 1.5M
Apr - Jun 21: 1.8M
Ju; - Sep 21: 1.7M
Oct - Dec 21: 3.6M
Jan - Mar 22: 1.8M
Apr - Jun 22: 1.6M
Jul - Sep 22: 1.9M
Oct - Dec 22: 3.2M
Jan - Mar 23: 1.3M
Apr - Jun 23: 1.4M

Total: 22.9M
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You might be more accurate. Its still unclear if that 21M+ was shipment or sold. The 58M XB1 figure was shipment.
 
enpleinjour said:
You might be more accurate. Its still unclear if that 21M+ was shipment or sold. The 58M XB1 figure was shipment.
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58M XB1 would be sold through we already have data for major nations after 2020 that show XB1 sold next to nothing.

Ampere had XBS at 21.3M as of March 2023.

It's like, abundantly clear.
 
Welfare said:
58M XB1 would be sold through we already have data for major nations after 2020 that show XB1 sold next to nothing.

Ampere had XBS at 21.3M as of March 2023.

It's like, abundantly clear.
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Its not clear at all. Being clear would be mentioning if its shipment or sold.
Too make things even more unclear MSFT told the CMA the following:

Screen-Shot-2022-10-12-at-12-04-46-PM.png


XBS sold were 10.5M by end of 2021, giving a XB1 total sales of 53.2M. Even here its hard to know if shipment or sales are being talked about.

Also considering we are talking about 1-2M sales difference, its within everyone's error margin.
 
Welfare said:
The big difference would be down to Q4 2021. S did way better than the X that holiday. Beyond that it's just slight variance quarter to quarter.
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So it could be over 4 million even 4.5 million? Yes i remember retailers having a super cheap offer for Series S in holiday 2021.
 
enpleinjour said:
Its not clear at all. Being clear would be mentioning if its shipment or sold.
Too make things even more unclear MSFT told the CMA the following:

Screen-Shot-2022-10-12-at-12-04-46-PM.png


XBS sold were 10.5M by end of 2021, giving a XB1 total sales of 53.2M. Even here its hard to know if shipment or sales are being talked about.

Also considering we are talking about 1-2M sales difference, its within everyone's error margin.
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And we've gone over how the data Microsoft provided to the CMA was 3rd party, not internal data. Keystone had inaccurate historical shipment data for Microsoft consoles and Keystone was used in the FTC case to provide info on the market.

You'd have to argue there's 5 million Xbox One's unsold somewhere if you accept the 53.2M back in 2021.

There's also the context of where those numbers were shared, an indie dev showcase. Developers can't sell games to unsold consoles, and with that, we have Ampere saying sell through was 21.3M as of March 2023.

21M sell through for XBS is not inconsistent, so XB1 would be new information.
 
Welfare said:
And we've gone over how the data Microsoft provided to the CMA was 3rd party, not internal data. Keystone had inaccurate historical shipment data for Microsoft consoles and Keystone was used in the FTC case to provide info on the market.

You'd have to argue there's 5 million Xbox One's unsold somewhere if you accept the 53.2M back in 2021.

There's also the context of where those numbers were shared, an indie dev showcase. Developers can't sell games to unsold consoles, and with that, we have Ampere saying sell through was 21.3M as of March 2023.

21M sell through for XBS is not inconsistent, so XB1 would be new information.
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But if that's the case wouldn't Ampere be wrong since we only got the 21+ mill XBS sales recently like last month? That's a 3 month gap.
 
MarcoP90 said:
I edited the post to include the transcription of the content of the quoted tweet, but it would be very appreciated if you (as well as all the members of the forum) could copy-paste and put in quote the text from the tweets you share from now on; it's all for archivial purposes, especially when dealing with the the worst-case-scenario where the original sources disappear in one way or another (especially in the case of Twitter given...let's just say recent events).

This is actually a forum's guidance has been introduced a few months ago, as can be seen here
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Ok. No problem
 
SoonyXboneUhh said:
You also have to reduce Activision revenue on Xbox. That's $1bn less
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Right, because MS already counts ABK's digital revenue under Xbox like they do all 3rd party digital revenue. There's a decent chunk of double counted revenue here just by adding Xbox and ABK as is.

This also happened with Sony and Bungie, MS and Bethesda, etc. Only Nintendo would work differently since they don't include 3rd party digital revenue as their own (in line with Apple & Alphabet and their mobile stores, or MS with Windows store iirc).
 
fiendcode said:
Right, because MS already counts ABK's digital revenue under Xbox like they do all 3rd party digital revenue. There's a decent chunk of double counted revenue here just by adding Xbox and ABK as is.

This also happened with Sony and Bungie, MS and Bethesda, etc. Only Nintendo would work differently since they don't include 3rd party digital revenue as their own (in line with Apple & Alphabet and their mobile stores, or MS with Windows store iirc).
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So Sony's and Microsoft's gaming revenues are inflated due to counting %100 of the 3rd party sales (which is the majority of revenues these days vs physical) while the likes of Nintendo and Apple only count their %30 cut in their financial statements ?
 
Concurseiro do Futuro said:
Pentiment and Hi-Fi Rush couldn't save Xbox on FY23, and Redfall was a major flop.

Starfield + Forza + ABK should push the Xbox division to like ~U$25 billion on FY24. That's massive. And their profit could be higher than Playstation division.
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I'd like to see net profit for their division. Buying a bunch of profit is meaningless.
 
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