driven by higher price and volume of consoles sold due to the Xbox Series X|S launches
-
(Q) Units up, price up
Q4 (Apr-Jun)
driven by higher price and volume of consoles sold due to the Xbox Series X|S launches
driven by higher price of consoles sold due to the Xbox Series X|S launches
(Q) Units up, price up
(FY) Price up
FY 2022 (July 2021 - June 2022)
Quarter
Quarter Impact Quote
Fiscal Year Impact Quote
Explainer
Q1 (Jul-Sep)
driven by higher volume and price of consoles sold due to continued demand for Xbox Series X|S
-
Units up, price up
Q2 (Oct-Dec)
driven by continued strong demand and better than expected console supply on a strong prior year comparable that included the launch of the Xbox Series X and S
driven by higher volume of consoles sold due to continued demand for Xbox Series X|S
(Q) Units up
(FY) Units up
Q3 (Jan-Mar)
better than expected as increased supply of consoles in quarter drove growth
due to continued demand for Xbox Series X|S
(Q) Units up
(FY) Units up
Q4 (Apr-Jun)
due to continued demand for Xbox Series X|S
due to continued demand for Xbox Series X|
-
FY 2023 (July 2022 - June 2023)
Quarter
Quarter Impact Quote
Fiscal Year Impact Quote
Explainer
Q1 (Jul-Sep)
driven by higher volume and price of consoles sold
-
Units up, price up
Q2 (Oct-Dec)
driven by lower price and volume of consoles sold
driven by lower price of consoles sold
(Q) Units down, price down
(FY) Price down
Q3 (Jan-Mar)
driven by lower volume of consoles sold
driven by lower volume and price of consoles sold
(Q) Units down
(FY) Units down, price down
Q4 (Apr-Jun)
driven by lower volume of consoles sold
driven by lower volume and price of consoles sold
(Q) Units down
(FY) Units down, price down
FY 2024 (July 2023 - June 2024)
Quarter
Quarter Impact Quote
Fiscal Year Impact Quote
Explainer
Q1 (Jul-Sep)
driven by lower volume of consoles sold, offset in part by higher price of consoles sold
-
Units down, price up
Q2 (Oct-Dec)
driven by sales mix shift to higher-priced consoles
-
Price up
Q3 (Jan-Mar)
driven by lower volume of consoles sold
driven by lower volume of consoles sold, offset in part by sales mix shift to higher-priced consoles
(Q) Units down
(FY) Units down, price up
Q4 (Apr-Jun)
driven by lower volume of consoles sold
driven by lower volume of consoles sold
(Q) Units down
(FY) Units down
FY 2025 (July 2024 - June 2025)
Quarter
Quarter Impact Quote
Fiscal Year Impact Quote
Explainer
Q1 (Jul-Sep)
driven by lower volume of consoles sold
-
Units down
Q2 (Oct-Dec)
driven by lower volume of consoles sold
driven by lower volume of consoles sold
Units down
Q3 (Jan-Mar)
Q4 (Apr-Jun)
If you want something on hardware units (and I know you do why are you on this site in the first place) look below. I want the OP to only contain official data.
Update August 9, 2024: So I was wrong but it's okay! Thanks to the leaked documents in the FTC trial for the Activision acquisition, I found out that hardware revenue does actually include accessory sales. This would mean that hardware sold to retailers is at a bulk rate discount. The thing with that is, looking at the rest of the post and future posts, whatever accessory sales are being made is made up for with assuming full price MSRP console sales. This update was needed for transparency.
Original post:
While Microsoft has refused to update hardware units for the Xbox brand since 2015, that hasn't stopped them from sharing revenue for the brand. Even then, Microsoft doesn't make it easy to figure out how much revenue software and hardware bring in. Thankfully, over the years it has become easier to figure the revenue splits for both and in turn revenue from previous years, going back to 2014.
Technically, this is all math based, BUT you can follow along!
Here is the page to easily go to every quarter. Click the Earnings Call Slides to find the per quarter total revenue. Important places to look for info is the slides, PR, and segment results pages. Do note that starting FY2020 they stop reporting the per quarter revenue. Fortunately, they report the amount of revenue the segment goes up or down by.
But wait! Couldn't we further math out hardware shipments if we know the revenue? Yeah. We would just need to figure out a good estimate for the Average Sale Price for each quarter.
We also need to clear up whether or not accessories like controllers are included in hardware revenue. I'll try to prove they aren't.
Firstly, you yourself can go through every single quarter for the past 8 years. Go find me a single mention of accessories whenever Microsoft talks about hardware. You won't find any mention of controllers like the Elite having an impact on revenue for a quarter, but what Microsoft does make note of, and only makes a note of, is whether or not Xbox hardware revenue is impacted by console unit sales going up or down, along with ASP going up or down. The only mentions regarding hardware for 8 years of reporting only refer to consoles. Never accessories.
Secondly, we can use the revenue we math'd out with known Xbox hardware unit sales Microsoft reported on in 2014/2015. These were combined Xbox 360 and Xbox One shipments but since we have a revenue number to work with and we have a general idea of what each console was selling for, if we can clear those out we will see if there's any money left over for non console revenue. Here's what I mean.
Official reported Xbox hardware shipments 2014 - 2015
Jul-Sep 2014: 2.4M
Oct-Dec 2014: 6.6M
Jan-Mar 2015: 1.6M
Apr-Jun 2015: 1.4M
Do note that for the fiscal year Microsoft reported 12.1M shipments so some or all quarters here are not exactly 2,400,000 for example.
The easiest quarter to work out is Jul-Sep 2014 as that is before the big US price cut to $349 in November. The vast majority of Xbox One's are going to be the $399 Xbox One. Something in the range of 70-80% as even though the $399 XB1 should have been a massive seller killing the Kinect SKU, we have a leak from the June 2014 NPD that shows only 55% of XB1 sales were from the $399 SKU, and the Kinect SKU wasn't even impacted negatively by its introduction. Over the next three months though there would be massive Fall releases like Madden (which had a successful $399 bundle) and Destiny which should've been pushing the lower priced SKU more.
Using a range of 70-80% $399 Xbox One's is an ASP of $420-$430.
The Xbox 360 is a bit harder to pin down but by September 2014 Microsoft was selling Kinect bundles and a 500GB bundle at $249. The $199 4GB should've stayed the same and any 250GB bundles would match the Kinect price until the 500GB SKU releases. So I dunno, $220 as an ASP? Lower if the 4GB is what's popular in 2014?
We could just do it now. ~2,400,000 hardware units were shipped and generated ~$893,000,000 in revenue.
Very quickly I end up at the following.
Xbox One: 1,800,000 * $425 = $765,000,000
Xbox 360: 600,000 * $220 = $132,000,000
Total: 2,400,000 = $897,000,000
And that's OVER the $893M
It being THAT close immediately just means there's some slight adjustments that need to be done to the ASP of each console and it hits all 100% of the hardware revenue. Quite simply, controllers, headsets and the like can not fit into hardware revenue. Microsoft has never made any mention of them when reporting what impacted hardware revenue and we just quickly math'd out console shipments taking up every dollar.
You can work this math out too if you still disagree. Just remember the following:
You need to hit 2,400,000 or slightly above combined XB1 and 360 units.
Xbox One SKU's at the time were $399 No Kinect and $499 Kinect
Xbox 360 SKU's at the time were ~$250 Kinect and 500GB bundle, possibly ~$200 4GB.
Like, even if you just use $400 and $200, 2.1M XB1 and 300K 360 is $900,000,000. All hardware is console revenue only.
Hmm you might really be right, that accessories are not included in hardware.
It's for sure not in games and service revenue, and equally sure is in the More Personal Computing Division.
The last FY Microsofts MPC Division made $54.093bn
Windows, Gaming, Search advertising and Devices had a combined $53.647bn revenue from external customers.
Devices is $6.791bn, Surface is $6.478bn and Devices is explicitly mentioned to include PC accessories
That leaves the "other" Product and Service category of $4.479bn, where accessories could be accounted for. But it could also be inter-division revenue responsible for the small gap of $0.5bn or just accounting.
That would make the Xbox division a little bigger than just the $15.370bn. It's really hard to figure out for certain.
There's also a few times Microsoft revealed XBS was ahead of XB1, so we have a cap for both consoles for certain quarters. XB1 can't be above where XBS can reasonably cap to, and vis versa.
Starting FY2014 Q2 Microsoft would only report combined hardware shipments until FY2015 Q4 where they would stop reporting hardware units entirely.
For 5 quarters we have an easy enough job of knowing exactly how many units were sold, we just need to figure out the split between Xbox 360 and XB1. We can do that through ASP estimating like we did in a previous post. To keep it easy to follow along for yourself since we are all using the same info, here's I'm setting this up.
I'm going to try and provide info and math with results. Also note that every PR from MS Financials compares Year over Year.
And REMEMBER, these are merely estimates. The revenue isn't going to be exact. Microsoft rounds to the nearest million. Units aren't uber accurate. They aren't meant to be some psychic look into Phil Spencer's spreadsheets. These are Welfare Estimates.
FY 2014 (July 2013 - June 2014)
Quarter
Xbox 360
Xbox One
Notes
Q1 (Jul-Sep 2013)
1,200,000
-
Official Numbers
Q2 (Oct-Dec 2013)
3,500,000
3,900,000
Official Numbers
Q3 (Jan-Mar 2014)
800,000
1,200,000
Official Numbers
Q4 (Apr-Jun 2014)
500,000
600,000
[1] 1.1M Combined
Total (Life to Date)
6,000,000 (84,200,000)
5,700,000
[1] Immediately and I might have an aneurysm on this one.
Basically Amy Hood, the executive vice president and chief financial officer, said that Microsoft would be working clearing out existing inventory of Xbox hardware. Xbox One at the end of 2013 had a confirmed 900,000 units unsold (3M sell through / 3.9M shipped) and by the end of March 2014 the best estimate would put XB1 at another 900,000 units unsold (~4.2M sell through / 5.1M shipped).
Then there's the Xbox 360 which we know was announced at 84M shipped on June 9, 2014. We could assume it just hit 84.0M the week prior (June 9 was a Monday) but it was a number announced at E3, so it's possible it was hit some time before E3. This would realistically only be between 400K-500K for X360, thus leaving 600K-700K for XB1.
A while ago, I had assumed Microsoft pretty much stopped XB1 shipments up to the release of the $399 edition, but I found out about a Forza Motorsport 5 bundle Microsoft released alongside the Titanfall bundle, but the Forza bundle didn't take off until the TF bundle ran out. That could account for a couple to even a few 100K from April to June, in addition to what the $399 sold.
FY 2015 (July 2014 - June 2015)
Quarter
Xbox 360
Xbox One
Notes
Q1 (Jul-Sep 2014)
600,000
1,800,000
[2] 2.4M Combined / XB1 +28 markets
Q2 (Oct-Dec 2014)
1,700,000
4,900,000
[3] 6.6M Combined / XB1 Price Cut
Q3 (Jan-Mar 2015)
400,000
1,200,000
[4] 1.6M Combined
Q4 (Apr-Jun 2015)
200,000
1,200,000
[5] 1.4M Combined / 12.1M FY
Total (Life to Date)
2,900,000 (87,100,000)
9,100,000 (14,800,000)
[2] Taken from here, "due mainly to 102% higher volume and a 93% increase attributable to higher premium mix of consoles sold" I'm guessing the 93% is to the price.
This quarter is when the second wave of nations got Xbox One, in addition to the typical build up towards the holidays. Honestly this quarter can be anything like 1.7M/700K or 1.8M/600K, so nailing it down isn't too important.
[3] Taken from here, "driven by a 10% decline in total console volume, the transition from Xbox 360 to Xbox One with lower prices compared to the prior year"
With Xbox One, LTD as of this quarter has to cap out somewhere around 12.5M. We know that later on Xbox Series will be the fastest selling Xbox as of the 5th quarter, and with what we know about that, the most that can be given to that is ~12.5M.
[4] Taken from here, "driven by a 20% decline in console volume and lower prices of Xbox One consoles compared to the prior year.". So total hardware units are down along with Xbox One ASP. Could mean both Xbox 360 and XB1 are down in units, or that only the 360 is down but XB1 didn't increase.
From the above, that would mean 400K Xbox 360 if XB1 isn't up from 1.2M. In the US, XB1 stayed at its $349 base price. This is a massive drop from the $499 of 2014.
[5] Taken from here, "driven by higher volumes of consoles sold, offset in part by lower prices of Xbox Ones sold.". This increase is all Xbox One. The base price is now $349 in the US and a new 1TB model at $399 in was introduced in June. The UK also saw a £30 price cut, along with the general slowdown of Kinect sales in 2015, the ASP of XB1 should be approaching closer to $349. Xbox 360 should be around the same.
Also, despite the sum for the past 4 quarter being 12.0M, Microsoft says that the FY was 12.1M. Little annoying, but you can just add 20-30K a quarter to whatever console(s) you want. FY 2016 (July 2015 - June 2016)
Quarter
Xbox 360
Xbox One
Notes
Q1 (Jul-Sep 2015)
200,000
1,900,000
[6]
Q2 (Oct-Dec 2015)
600,000
5,200,000
[7]
Q3 (Jan-Mar 2016)
100,000
1,100,000
[8]
Q4 (Apr-Jun 2016)
100,000
1,100,000
[9] / Xbox 360 Discontinued
Total (Life to Date)
1,000,000 (88,100,000)
9,300,000 (24,100,000)
[6] Taken from here, "mainly due to lower volumes of Xbox 360 consoles sold." If the reason for revenue decline was Xbox 360 units, that should mean Xbox One is either flat at worst or up YOY, since they didn't say anything about XB1 offsetting this decline, it should only be slightly up if at all (+100K).
[7] Taken from here, "Xbox One revenue decreased slightly, due to higher console volume, offset by lower prices of consoles sold."
Also taken from here, "(Fiscal Year YTD) mainly due to a decline in Xbox 360 console volume. Xbox One revenue decreased, due to higher console volume, offset by lower prices of consoles sold" For the quarter XB1 is up in units, and for the 2 quarters of the current FY, XB1 is up YOY.
[8] Taken from here, "mainly due to a decline in Xbox 360 console volume and lower prices of Xbox One consoles sold." Now because they mention Xbox 360 volume (units) and XB1 prices (ASP) being the main reason for the decline in revenue, XB1 units should be flat or slightly down at worst.
Also taken from here, "(Fiscal Year YTD) mainly due to a decline in Xbox 360 console volume and lower prices of Xbox One consoles sold, offset in part by higher Xbox One console volume". After 3 quarters, XB1 is still up in units YOY.
Xbox 360 should just be considered near dead at this point. We know from NPD leaks that it sold >200K in 2016, so it should only be shipping a couple 100K this year as after 2016 there are next to no more units to be sold. It doesn't get production discontinued until April 2016, so it'll still be shipping some units until then and somewhat after.
[9] Taken from here, "mainly due to a decline in consoles sold and lower prices of consoles sold."
Also taken from here, "(Fiscal Year) mainly due to lower prices of Xbox One consoles sold and a decline in Xbox 360 console volume, offset in part by higher Xbox One console volume." Xbox One FY 2016 is higher than FY 2015.
April 20, 2016: Xbox 360 manufacturing discontinued Source FY 2017 (July 2016 - June 2017)
Quarter
Xbox One
Notes
Q1 (Jul-Sep 2016)
1,700,000
[10] Xbox One S Launch
Q2 (Oct-Dec 2016)
5,300,000
[11]
Q3 (Jan-Mar 2017)
1,200,000
[12]
Q4 (Apr-Jun 2017)
800,000
[13]
Total (Life to Date)
9,000,000 (33,100,000)
[10] Taken from here, "mainly due to lower prices of consoles sold and a decline in volume of consoles sold." If you look down to the next Note, they'll mention Xbox 360 volume and not XB1, so we could assume either XB1 is also down or that Xbox 360 had more of an impact in the next quarter.
[11] Taken from here, "mainly due to lower prices of consoles sold and a decline in volume of consoles sold."
However, the above is clarified in the earnings call with "due to lower console hardware pricing and Xbox 360 volume" Since Xbox One volume isn't mentioned it can be assumed to either be flat, slightly down, or slightly up.
Also taken from here, "(Fiscal Year YTD) mainly due to lower prices of consoles sold and a decline in volume of consoles sold". Again, total Xbox is down in units, but nothing is specified to this being due to Xbox One. It's also not saying that XB1 offset this decline, so if it were up in units, it would only be a slight amount.
[12] Taken from here, "(Fiscal Year YTD) mainly due to lower prices of consoles sold and a decline in volume of consoles sold"
For the quarter Microsoft decided not to say anything about hardware. Seeing the revenue, it wasn't anything to note, but with the prices XB1 is at it should be flat or slightly up YOY, but not enough to pass XB1+360.
[13] Taken from here, "driven by lower prices and a decline in volume of consoles sold." No idea why they mention hardware now. This is the worst quarter!
Also taken from here, "(Fiscal Year) mainly due to lower prices of consoles sold and a decline in volume of consoles sold." FY 2018 (July 2017 - June 2018)
Quarter
Xbox One
Notes
Q1 (Jul-Sep 2017)
1,000,000
[14]
Q2 (Oct-Dec 2017)
5,500,000
[15] Xbox One X Launch
Q3 (Jan-Mar 2018)
1,000,000
[16]
Q4 (Apr-Jun 2018)
1,100,000
[17]
Total (Life to Date)
8,600,000 (41,700,000)
[14] Taken from here, "mainly due to a decline in volume of consoles sold and lower prices of consoles sold." It was around here that the 500GB went down to $279.
[15] Taken from here, "primarily due to the launch of Xbox One X." Xbox One X was $499 which would represent a massive ASP spike. Nothing about volume or price itself. The FY YTD doesn't mention a reason for revenue decline.
[16] Literally nothing on hardware for the quarter or FY YTD.
[17] Literally nothing on hardware for the quarter or FY YTD, again. At this point PUBG and Fortnite were so strong for Xbox they were driving growth alone. FY 2019 (July 2018 - June 2019)
Quarter
Xbox One
Notes
Q1 (Jul-Sep 2018)
1,600,000
[18]
Q2 (Oct-Dec 2018)
5,400,000
[19]
Q3 (Jan-Mar 2019)
700,000
[20]
Q4 (Apr-Jun 2019)
600,000
[21]
Total (Life to Date)
8,300,000 (50,000,000)
[18] Taken from here, "against a low prior year comparable due to timing of the Xbox One X launch in the second quarter of fiscal year 2018."
Also taken from here, "with earlier than expected sell in of holiday hardware bundles." This quarter was bigger than expected and considering the timing, the holiday bundles that were early should be the One S Fortnite and One X Fallout 76 bundles.
[19] Taken from here, "due to the launch of Xbox One X in the second quarter of fiscal year 2018."
Nothing about console volume for the quarter or FY YTD.
[20] Taken from here, "primarily due to a decrease in volume of consoles sold." Nothing on lower prices so the ASP should be similar to last year or the units drop is so massive the lower prices didn't matter as much.
[21] Taken from here, "primarily due to a decrease in volume of consoles sold." Units down from last year.
Also taken from here, "(Fiscal Year) primarily due to a decrease in volume of consoles sold." Units are down from last FY.
According to Mandy Woo's LinkedIn (Microsoft Project Manager from August 2016 - August 2019) she says "Managed 6 vendors across 3 time zones, prioritizing workload, driving alignment on key issues, managing schedule/status updates to stakeholders, to ensure on-time, high quality, and on-budget product launch. Notable launches: Xbox One X, Xbox One S: 21M+ units sold"
Based on the comma, to me that is separating X and S with S alone being what is 21M+. I'd assume her data is as of the previous quarter/fiscal year. You can see the tables at the bottom of this post I have One S above 21M as of this FY. FY 2020 (July 2019 - June 2020)
Quarter
Xbox One
Notes
Q1 (Jul-Sep 2019)
1,000,000
[22]
Q2 (Oct-Dec 2019)
3,500,000
[23]
Q3 (Jan-Mar 2020)
600,000
[24]
Q4 (Apr-Jun 2020)
1,000,000
[25]
Total (Life to Date)
6,100,000 (56,100,000)
[22] Taken from here, "primarily due to a decrease in volume of consoles sold." Units down again.
[23] Taken from here, "primarily due to a decrease in volume and price of consoles sold." So ASP and units are down. The SAD hit $149, One S $199, and One X $349. The SAD was also really popular this holiday.
[24] Taken from here, "primarily due to a decrease in price of consoles sold." ASP went down while units not so much if at all.
This March is the start of the COVID 19 pandemic. Mid-March is when consoles start selling out. Microsoft found it smart to also give the One X a permanent price drop to $399 after having a $299 promo in February.
[25] Taken from here, "primarily due to an increase in volume of consoles sold." Xbox is up from last year. This is thanks entirely to the pandemic.
Taken from here, "(Fiscal Year) primarily due to a decrease in volume and price of consoles sold." Price and units down from last FY.
The Xbox One X was pretty much sold at $299 this entire quarter and on June 5 the SAD went to $199 while supplies lasted. This would also be the last quarter the One X and SAD were shipped as only the One S was the remaining unit selling after June. The Verge was given a statement from Microsoft that confirmed One X and SAD were discontinued in July, but this would be the confirmation, not that they were discontinued in July.
FY 2021 (July 2020 - June 2021)
Quarter
Xbox One
Xbox Series
Notes
Q1 (Jul-Sep 2020)
900,000
-
[26]
Q2 (Oct-Dec 2020)
400,000
3,100,000
[27]
Q3 (Jan-Mar 2021)
-
1,500,000
[28]
Q4 (Apr-Jun 2021)
-
1,900,000
[29]
Total (Life to Date)
1,300,000 (57,400,000)
6,500,000
[26] Taken from here, "driven by a decrease in volume of consoles sold ahead of new console launches." The only thing shipped this quarter was the $299 Xbox One S. This is pretty easy to calculate.
[27] Taken from here, "driven by higher price of consoles sold due to the Xbox Series X|S launches." Basically the ASP being higher is the reason for an increase, so XBS + XB1 Q4 2020 units shouldn't be much different from XB1 Q4 2019 last year.
Also taken from here, "(Fiscal Year YTD) driven by higher price of consoles sold due to the Xbox Series X|S launches". Again, only the price is being mentioned, so units shouldn't be much different from last FY.
For this quarter I'm going to throw a lot of info at you at once because it's important to establish that we know a lot more about Xbox Series 2020 - 2022 thanks to the FTC trial for the Activision acquisition. It's better to establish it all here for the launch of XBS than to have the logic disjointed between different quarters and years.
This slide tells us the Gen 9 console market share for Microsoft's FY 21 and 22 quarters 1 + 2 + 3. We know that XBS shipped 4.6M in the first 3 quarters of FY21 and 7.8M in FY22 first 3 quarters. We also know from this leaked email that Microsoft planned to ship 9.6M in FY22. Considering that they had shipped 7.8M with one quarter left, and the revenue for that quarter allows for 1.8M units (9.6M - 7.8M = 1.8M, easy math), I see no reason to assume Microsoft didn't hit that 9.6M target.
That would mean we have this timeline for Xbox Series shipments, all from official sources.
Quarter
Sales
LTD
1+2
4,600,000
-
3
?
?
4+5+6
7,800,000
>12,400,000
7
1,800,000
>14,200,000
We have a pesky missing quarter there, but I think we can solve it. The revenue for that quarter leads to either 1.8M or 1.9M. For quarter 7, Microsoft doesn't note whether console volume was up or down. Looking at 9.6M, it would be a straight 50% increase over a hypothetical 6.4M, which would point to 1.8M for Quarter 3. Something that is important to keep in mind is that Phil Spencer confirmed that Xbox Series was the fastest selling Xbox after 2021 ("At this point, we’ve sold more of this generation of Xboxes, which is Xbox Series X and S, than we had any previous version of Xboxes."), so Quarter 3 needs to be high enough, plus Quarters 4 and 5 to be ahead of XB1. XB1 can be either 12.4M or 12.5M because with how the revenue math works out XBS can't be much higher if it all than 12.5M while keeping to the 7.8M maximum for that stretch of time, so 1.9M would give a little more wiggle room for XBS to be ahead. It's only 100K, but I think we have a solid enough case for this being the first 7 Quarters of XBS.
Quarter
Sales
LTD
1+2
4,600,000
-
3
1,800,000 or 1,900,000
6,400,000 or 6,500,000
4+5+6
7,800,000
14,200,000 or 14,300,000
7
1,800,000
16,000,000 or 16,100,000
Xbox Series has two SKU, the $499 X and $299 S. The split between both is assumed to be in the 70-80:30-20 range at this point, favoring the X. Xbox One S would take the remainder of what's left. Because of the math works out for the next quarter which doesn't change from 1.5M, that would leave 3.1M for this quarter and then 400K XB1 from remaining revenue.
[28] Taken from here, "driven by higher price and volume of consoles sold due to the Xbox Series X|S launches." Total units up YOY.
[29] Taken from here, "driven by higher price and volume of consoles sold due to the Xbox Series X|S launches."
Also taken from here, "(Fiscal Year) driven by higher price of consoles sold due to the Xbox Series X|S launches."
Microsoft also announced Xbox Series is the fastest selling Xbox ever. Here are the other Xbox consoles after 3 quarters:
Xbox: 3,900,000
Xbox 360: 5,000,000
Xbox One: ~5,700,000
Now what's weird is that Microsoft doesn't note in the FY that console volume is up, despite Q1 being down YOY, Q2 nothing being noted, and the Q3 and Q4 being up YOY. We also know XBS is ahead of XB1 this quarter, which means it needs to ship at least 1.2M, meaning at least 5.8M with just XBS. XB1 should be well more than enough to push FY21 above FY20 in units because I can't see XB1 being much higher than what I estimated. FY 2022 (July 2021 - June 2022)
Quarter
Xbox Series
Notes
Q1 (Jul-Sep 2021)
1,900,000
[30]
Q2 (Oct-Dec 2021)
4,200,000
[31]
Q3 (Jan-Mar 2022)
1,700,000
[32]
Q4 (Apr-Jun 2022)
1,800,000
[33]
Total (Life to Date)
9,600,000 (16,100,000)
[30] Taken from here, "driven by higher volume and price of consoles sold due to continued demand for Xbox Series X|S, on a low prior year comparable impacted by a slowdown in volume of consoles sold ahead of Xbox Series X|S launches." Units and price up YOY.
[31] Taken from here, "driven by continued strong demand and better than expected console supply on a strong prior year comparable that included the launch of the Xbox Series X and S".
Also taken from here, "(Fiscal Year YTD) driven by higher volume of consoles sold due to continued demand for Xbox Series X|S." Units up.
Jim Ryan confirmed that Xbox Series outsold PS5 for a 3 month period in 2021. This quarter has been the only one that makes sense, and is also something I'm glad to have called years before it was confirmed. PS5 shipped 3.9M here.
[32] Taken from here, "Xbox hardware revenue was better than expected as increased supply of consoles in quarter drove growth". Considering XB1 was dead last year and XBS is versus itself here, increased supply from last year should mean units are up. FY YTD only mentions "continued demand" for growth.
Also, like mentioned back in Note [27] This quarter plus the previous two need to equal 7.8M.
[33] All that's mentioned for hardware is "continued demand" for growth. We already know from back in Note [27] that XBS was at 7.8M for 3 quarters, much higher than the 4.6M it had in the prior FY, and XB1 wouldn't be enough to push FY21 above FY22.
Xbox Series was once again stated to be the fastest selling Xbox ever. Here are the other Xbox consoles after 3 quarters:
Xbox: 9,400,000
Xbox 360: 11,600,000
Xbox One: ~14,800,000 FY 2023 (July 2022 - June 2023)
Quarter
Xbox Series
Notes
Q1 (Jul-Sep 2022)
2,000,000
[34]
Q2 (Oct-Dec 2022)
4,000,000
[35]
Q3 (Jan-Mar 2023)
1,200,000
[36]
Q4 (Apr-Jun 2023)
1,500,000
[37]
Total (Life to Date)
8,700,000 (24,800,000)
[34] Taken from here, "driven by higher volume and price of consoles sold." Units up YOY and Series X share as well.
Also taken from here, "We’ve sold more Xbox Series S and Series X consoles life-to-date than any previous generation of Xbox" So up to this quarter XBS is still the fastest selling Xbox.
[35] Taken from here, "driven by lower price and volume of consoles sold." Units are down and Series S was on discount for $249.
Also taken from here, "(Fiscal Year) driven by lower price of consoles sold."
This might be the most difficult/controversial quarter because of 3 reasons.
1. After last quarter, Microsoft never again stated that XBS was the fastest selling Xbox, and this quarter is when the XBS can realistically fall behind XB1.
2. Keystone, a data analytics group, was used by Microsoft in the Activision acquisition to present some data to the FTC that Xbox consoles were not in a position to usurp PlayStation's market share, and Keystone said Xbox Series shipped 3.2M
3. For the FY, Microsoft doesn't mention that console volume is the reason for lowered revenue, but instead calls out lowered prices. We know that the first quarter of the FY was up YOY in units and price, and that Microsoft said that this quarter was down in units and price, but apparently only the price is enough to be standout over the 2 quarter totals.
To tackle each reason:
1. This is somewhat irrelevant because the only reason we know XBS was ahead of XB1 at the end of 2021 was from a Phil Spencer interview. Microsoft only mentioned XBS was the fastest selling Xbox during the earnings call for the full Fiscal Year results, and Satya Nadella once in a letter on LinkedIn. Additionally, Microsoft never stated Xbox One was the fastest selling Xbox in earnings calls up until it fell behind the Xbox 360 after 19 quarters, and Microsoft is infamous for changing what stats will be given out to shareholders regarding the Xbox business. A lack of update on if XBS is the fastest isn't evidence of it no longer being the case.
Before the Phil Spencer interview, my math had already put XBS ahead of XB1. It was a neat confirmation of the estimates, but these estimates shouldn't be pigeonholed into a particular thinking needing confirmation about the numbers, otherwise my estimates that had put XB1 far above 50M like the final LTD ended up being years before that was confirmed wouldn't have been possible.
2. In the same document that Keystone says Xbox shipped 3.2M, they gave a "history" of shipments for Xbox, Nintendo, and PlayStation, that are all 100%, completely inaccurate. This thread contains the data that when looked at with a keen eye shows that even 100% public info isn't included from Xbox, Nintendo, or PlayStation shipments. 3.2M isn't a Microsoft official number, otherwise Keystone would've been provided and presented a graph for Xbox that lines up with what Microsoft itself reported back in the Xbox 360 days. Keystone's 3.2M is likely on the same level of accuracy as IDG's reporting that PS3 had a LTD of 87.8M in 2015, 2 years before it would officially hit a final LTD of 87.4M.
3. This is the most interesting of the 3 because Microsoft isn't a stranger to calling out console volume being the reason for lowered revenue alongside prices, and when they didn't mention console volume when it should be an impact before this was back in Q2 2021, when it's obvious that console volume was actually up YOY. Again, we have a quarter that was up in units and price, and then a quarter that was down in units and price, and of the two combined quarters, only the price is noted for the reason why revenue decline from the prior FY. And to drive this point further, next quarter is when Microsoft brings in the "driven by lower volume and price of consoles sold." for the FY. To illustrate that:
1. Quarter 1 is up in units and price.
2. Quarter 2 is down in units and price. Fiscal Year is down driven by price.
3. Quarter 3 is down in units, price isn't mentioned. Fiscal Year is down driven by units and price
Quarter 2 units can't be so far down that it brings total FY units down to a point where Microsoft would've called it out like they did price.
[36] Taken from here, "driven by lower volume of consoles sold." Units down.
Also taken from here, "(Fiscal Year YTD) driven by lower volume and price of consoles sold." Units and price down.
[37] Taken from here, "driven by lower volume of consoles sold". Units are down by a bigger margin than prices, if those fell at all. It was this June that Phil Spencer confirmed Xbox Series X was seeing a production increase.
Also taken from here, "(Fiscal Year) driven by lower volume and price of consoles sold". FY23 units and price down from FY22.
This is going to be controversial, something I thought sure about but upon closer inspection on what Microsoft has provided each quarter as well as FY updates, my estimates do not actually have XBS behind XB1 as of this quarter. I went over this in Note [35] but I'll reiterate it here. Microsoft is infamous for taking away information that would be positive for the brand in earnings for no reason other than they can. The only fact we have is that Microsoft did not state Xbox Series was the fastest selling Xbox like they have the last two FY. That alone doesn't mean it no longer is, but I would not declare that it is or isn't the case. Unless provided clear evidence otherwise, I'm going to do what I've been doing since I started these estimates years ago in the old Xbox One days. Look at the revenue and statements provided and go from there. To me, if my numbers were telling me XBS was ahead of XB1 each quarter before Microsoft did reveal that to be the case, and that XB1 was much higher than others were estimating, I shouldn't change my thinking or methodology without concrete evidence otherwise.
FY 2024 (July 2023 - June 2024)
Quarter
Xbox Series
Notes
Q1 (Jul-Sep 2023)
1,800,000
[38]
Q2 (Oct-Dec 2023)
3,900,000
[39]
Q3 (Jan-Mar 2024)
900,000
[40]
Q4 (Apr-Jun 2024)
900,000
[41]
Total (Life to Date)
7,500,000 (32,300,000)
[38] Taken from here, "driven by lower volume of consoles sold, offset in part by higher price of consoles sold." Units down, price up. This quarter saw the release of the $349 Series S 1TB
[39] Taken from here, "driven by sales mix shift to higher-priced consoles." So, revenue increased because of sales going more towards Series X and Series S 1TB(?) than Series S last year. This makes sense since Series X saw its first price promotion this holiday down to $399 and even $349 for a length of time, prices that are higher than the Series S ever was. This was also the first holiday with Series X fully in supply and saw more sales than the S in regions like the US. Nothing about console volume being impacted, like last quarter or the upcoming quarter, like last year.
Nothing was mentioned for the FY YTD.
[40] Taken from here, "driven by lower volume of consoles sold." Units down.
Also taken from here, "(Fiscal Year YTD) driven by lower volume of consoles sold, offset in part by sales mix shift to higher-priced consoles." Okay so here is where I think the prior quarter didn't see a notable decrease in units because this quarter calls out a volume decrease being offset by the mix shift, while last quarter did not mention volume with the mix shift.
[41] Taken from here, "driven by lower volume of consoles sold" Units down.
Also taken from here, "(Fiscal Year) driven by lower volume of consoles sold". FY24 units down from FY23, but price isn't notable to be called out. FY 2025 (July 2024 - June 2025)
Quarter
Xbox Series
Notes
Q1 (Jul-Sep 2023)
1,300,000
[42]
Q2 (Oct-Dec 2023)
Q3 (Jan-Mar 2024)
Q4 (Apr-Jun 2024)
Total (Life to Date)
[42] Taken from here, "driven by lower volume of consoles sold" Units down with no mention of price changing. This is somewhat significant as last year had the 1TB Series S launch at $349 while this year it had been sold out since July, meaning shipments had ceased for it. That would then lead to Series X needing to have a larger share of total sales this quarter to offset the loss of the 1TB Series S to keep the total price of the console from declining.
Roundup
Here's an easy place to see the per quarter sales of each console that I estimated.
the biggest difference i have with your estimate are the numbers from holiday 2014.
For some reasons i had a total different estimate for 360/XB1. (way higher for the 360 and worse for XB1)
the rest of my estimate are just 100k different or less so no big deal.
Overall i always put the 360 something in the 88-89 million range lifetime.
As for XB1 i just gived up shipments numbers after they stopped reporting total XBOX hardware, i just used estimate here and there.
the biggest difference i have with your estimate are the numbers from holiday 2014.
For some reasons i had a total different estimate for 360/XB1. (way higher for the 360 and worse for XB1)
the rest of my estimate are just 100k different or less so no big deal.
Overall i always put the 360 something in the 88-89 million range lifetime.
As for XB1 i just gived up shipments numbers after they stopped reporting total XBOX hardware, i just used estimate here and there.
If it's from the GAF days then I'm sure we estimated XB1 lower but that was more of a concession that the US:worldwide gap was much closer to 60:40. I didn't agree and that's why it's higher now.
So for 5 quarters we have an easy enough job of knowing exactly how many units were sold, we just need to figure out the split between Xbox 360 and XB1. We can do that through ASP estimating like we did in a previous post. To keep it easy to follow along for yourself since we are all using the same info, here's I'm setting this up.
Go into Google Sheets or Excel or whatever you use and just do something like this
The higher numbers are the Known Revenue (Top), Calculated Revenue from the lower numbers (Bottom), and the difference between the Top and Bottom (Right).
The lower numbers on the left are the Calculated Revenue from ASP and Units (Left), ASP (Center), and Units (Right). The numbers on the right are for the 5 quarters with known numbers and are meant to be a guide to make sure we are reaching the total. After the Xbox 360 is gone we will still need a total as we will try to estimate Xbox One S and X when they come along.
It would take literal hours to have to explain every single quarter in detail so only for those that absolutely need it, I'm going to try and provide basic info and math with results. Also for easiness I'm going to table these in calendar year, not fiscal year. Also note that every PR from MS Financials compares Year over Year.
And REMEMBER these are merely estimates. The revenue isn't going to be exact. Microsoft rounds to the nearest million. Units aren't uber accurate. They aren't meant to be some psychic look into Phil Spencer's spreadsheets. These are Welfare Estimates.
2014
Quarter
Xbox 360
Xbox One
Notes
Q1 (Jan-Mar)
800,000
1,200,000
Known Official Numbers
Q2 (Apr-Jun)
600,000
500,000
[1] / 1.1M Combined
Q3 (Jul-Sep)
600,000
1,800,000
[2] / 2.4M Combined / XB1 +28 markets
Q4 (Oct-Dec)
1,450,000
5,160,000
[3] / 6.6M Combined / XB1 Price Cut
Total (Life To Date)
3,550,000 (86,450,000)
8,660,000 (12,560,000)
[1] Immediately and I might have a aneurysm on this one.
Basically Amy Hood, the executive vice president and chief financial officer, said that Microsoft would be working clearing out existing inventory of Xbox hardware. Xbox One at the end of 2013 had a confirmed 900,000 units unsold (3M sell through / 3.9M shipped) and by the end of March 2014 the best estimate would put XB1 at another 900,000 units unsold (~4.2M sell through / 5.1M shipped).
Thanks to NPD leaks from June 2014 we know the $399 SKU only sold 108K units, meaning the $499 Kinect sold 281K total in Q2. That would be ~470K total worldwide following trends at the time, meaning the unsold units purely from end of March 2014 would drop to ~430K. Considering it took 3 whole months to move ~470K (~36K a week) it would take a further 11 weeks to sell out remaining Kinect units. Needing to ship anymore Kinect units seems unnecessary for Q2.
That leaves the only Xbox One thing that would be shipped is the $399 SKU, and as I said it sold through 108K in the US in June 2014. Now obviously shipments are going to be higher than that, probably have to account for another month's worth since Microsoft and retailers probably expected big things out of the price cut.
XB1 in total ($399 + $499) would sell 131K in July. Let's just say that's the extra shipments in June and put the US shipment of the $399 SKU at ~240K. US was ~60% of worldwide sales at the time so that's an easy extrapolation to 400K exactly.
Now that might seem absurd to you. Only 400K XB1 compared to 700K 360's? Why would Microsoft ship so many 360's? Well, all I can comment on is that XB1 sell through was dreadful in 2014 and the Amy Hood quote above would be most relevant to XB1. Maybe Microsoft shipped ~100K XB1 Kinect's at the beginning of April then stopped and the total is ~500K? Possible. Another possible reason this is correct is because, maybe Xbox 360 shipping more than XB1 was exactly the reason Microsoft started hiding numbers.
[2] This is easier to explain since I did it in this post here. I'll further elaborate and say the ASP I used was XB1: $425 / 360: $214 which equaled $893,400,000 ($400,000 "off" as the revenue is rounded to the millions)
[3] You are going to have to trust me on this but I remember Microsoft saying somewhere that Xbox One sold 10 Million units on December 3 yet I can't find it!
Xbox 360 ASP is going to be below $200 considering some Black Friday sales were $179 or $99 4GB depending on the retailer. Worldwide I'm not sure how drastic the cuts were so we could keep put 360 something at $180-$190 ASP this quarter.
Xbox One had a ton of SKU variety along with a US price cut to $349 in November and a further $329 Black Friday price. Now, this wouldn't mean the ASP is going to be ~$349 worldwide. Other regions would obviously have deals but if we were to estimate a US ASP, we might have to lob on a few extra dollars as insurance.
Basically even with the $329 deal for Black Friday, the COD and Kinect bundle should have kept the ASP a bit over $349. Like $360-$370, then with worldwide we'll add on an extra $10, so $370-$380
I came to the following ASP. XB1: $370 / 360: $184 which equaled $2,176,000,000 ($0 "off" as the revenue is rounded to the millions). Remember from an earlier post that FY 2015 shipments equaled 12.1M, so we have some wiggle room to do something like XB1 5.16M
2015
Quarter
Xbox 360
Xbox One
Notes
Q1 (Jan-Mar)
450,000
1,170,000
[4] / 1.6M Combined
Q2 (Apr-Jun)
200,000
1,230,000
[5] / 1.4M Combined
Q3 (Jul-Sep)
190,000
1,900,000
[6]
Q4 (Oct-Dec)
440,000
5,370,000
[7]
Total (Life To Date)
1,280,000 (87,730,000)
9,670,000 (22,130,000)
[4] Taken from here, "driven by a 20% decline in console volume and lower prices of Xbox One consoles compared to the prior year.". So total hardware units are down along with Xbox One ASP. Could mean both Xbox 360 and XB1 are down in units, or that only the 360 is down but XB1 didn't increase.
In the US, XB1 stayed at its $349 base price. This is a massive drop from the $499 of 2014. Xbox 360 should've just gone back up to what it was selling before Q4 2014, so around that $210-$220 range.
I came to the following ASP. XB1: $378 / 360: $215 which equaled $539,010,000 ($10,000 "off" as the revenue is rounded to the millions). I just reused the Q4 ASP for XB1 since the lower sales of the Kinect and COD bundles would be countered by the increase in price worldwide in a non holiday quarter. I also just made sure XB1 was slightly down in units.
[5] Taken from here, "driven by higher volumes of consoles sold, offset in part by lower prices of Xbox Ones sold.". Makes sense since the base price is now $349, even with the introduction of a new 1TB model at $399 in June. The UK also saw a £30 price cut, along with the general slow down of Kinect sales in 2015, the ASP of XB1 should be approaching closer to $349. Maybe like $360. Xbox 360 should be around the same.
I came to the following ASP. XB1: $365 / 360: $210 which equaled $490,950,000 ($50,000 "off" as the revenue is rounded to the millions).
[6] Taken from here, "Xbox hardware revenue decreased 17%, mainly due to lower volumes of Xbox 360 consoles sold." If the reason for revenue decline was Xbox 360 units, that should mean Xbox One is either flat at worst or even up YOY. ASP should be well down from 2014 Q3 so it's actually highly likely Xbox One is up in units.
A "spoiler" but for the Fiscal Year 2016 (July 2015 - June 2016) Microsoft reported Xbox One was up in units.
There were some more $399 bundles released so the ASP should increase slightly. Xbox 360 could be going down in ASP as the year goes on. Less stock but in general way lower base demand at standard prices as 8th gen gets into high gear and retailers want to clear inventory.
I came to the following ASP. XB1: $370 / 360: $200 which equaled $741,000,000 ($0 "off" as the revenue is rounded to the millions).
[7] Taken from here, "Xbox One revenue decreased slightly, due to higher console volume, offset by lower prices of consoles sold." I calculated Xbox One revenue to be $1,909,200,000 so we just have to get nit picky on what "slightly" means. Personally I take it to mean <$10M, so still above $1,900,000,000.
Now because Xbox One is determined by itself, it's pretty important to the the Xbox 360 as that will be the remainder. To keep the number from being massively inflated (like +500K) that's how I came to my Xbox One estimates for 2014.
In Q4, XB1 was available at $299 during Black Friday and Christmas shopping which would help bring ASP down from 2014. There were still plenty of new $399 bundle along with the introduction of new $499 options such as the Halo 5 Bundle, Elite, and another Kinect bundle. Every Xbox One would receive a price cut during the holidays so the ASP should be well below the ~$380 it was last year. Xbox 360 should be massively discounted going by 2014 but I can't find deals. Since the 360 is near dead in 2016 I'm assuming even bigger drops in ASP this holiday.
I came to the following ASP. XB1: $355 / 360: $168 which equaled $1,980,270,000 ($270,000 "off" as the revenue is rounded to the millions).
2016
Quarter
Xbox 360
Xbox One
Notes
Q1 (Jan-Mar)
60,000
1,080,000
[8]
Q2 (Apr-Jun)
30,000
1,020,000
[9] / Xbox 360 Discontinued
Q3 (Jul-Sep)
0
1,810,000
[10]
Q4 (Oct-Dec)
0
5,340,000
[11]
Total (Life To Date)
90,000 (87,820,000)
9,250,000 (31,380,000)
[8] Taken from here, "Xbox hardware revenue decreased 26%, mainly due to a decline in Xbox 360 console volume and lower prices of Xbox One consoles sold." Now because they mention Xbox 360 volume (units) and XB1 prices (ASP) being the main reason for the decline in revenue, XB1 units should be flat or slightly down at worst.
Xbox One ASP is confirmed down and should actually be close to $349 as March saw a quick $299 price promotion. Above Q4 ASP due to length of price cuts but still below Q1 2015.
Xbox 360 should just be considered dead at this point and retailers should be pushing the price down to get rid of inventory left over. Low ASP probably near holiday prices.
I came to the following ASP. XB1: $359 / 360: $185 which equaled $398,820,000 ($180,000 "off" as the revenue is rounded to the millions).
[9] Taken from here, the fiscal year result is "Xbox hardware revenue decreased 16%, mainly due to lower prices of Xbox One consoles sold and a decline in Xbox 360 console volume, offset in part by higher Xbox One console volume." Xbox One FY 2016 is higher than FY 2015.
Taken from here, the quarter result is "Xbox hardware revenue decreased 33%, mainly due to a decline in consoles sold and lower prices of consoles sold." So in general the decline in XB1 units this quarter should be bigger than I've been calculating before.
April 20, 2016: Xbox 360 manufacturing discontinued Source
Now Q2 is a big quarter in that Xbox just went "Fuck this" and dropped the prices super low in June. 500GB and Kinect bundles were $279 and the 1TB was $299. April had continued the March price promo so really only May sales would keep up the ASP above $300.
Xbox 360 is almost meaningless at this point. Microsoft doesn't even to bother mention it as a reason for declining revenue.
I came to the following ASP. XB1: $317 / 360: $175 which equaled $328,590,000 ($410,000 "off" as the revenue is rounded to the millions).
[10] Taken from here, "Xbox hardware revenue decreased 26%, mainly due to lower prices of consoles sold and a decline in volume of consoles sold." No question, Xbox One is down YOY. Xbox 360 shipments should be dead since manufacturing ended in April.
The Xbox One S launched at $299, $349, and a limited $399. The Xbox One also went even lower to $249 in July. We also had ASP leaks for NPD for this quarter that lead to revenue looking like this: Q3 Revenue = ~$234,760,000 and with units that leads to the following ASP of $301. Pretty easy that one huh?
I came to the following ASP. XB1: $304 which equaled $550,240,000 ($240,000 "off" as the revenue is rounded to the millions).
[11] Taken from here, "Xbox hardware revenue decreased 22%, mainly due to lower prices of consoles sold and a decline in volume of consoles sold." All this points to is Xbox One 2016 is lower than the combined Xbox 360 + Xbox One 2015. Could even be up YOY.
We had an ASP leak for October but it won't matter as much since November and December had massive $249 deals. ASP should be in the $280-$290 range as the 1TB bundles were still popular at $349 and then $299.
I came to the following ASP. XB1: $291 which equaled $1,553,940,000 ($60,000 "off" as the revenue is rounded to the millions).
2017
Quarter
Xbox One
Notes
Q1 (Jan-Mar)
1,190,000
[12]
Q2 (Apr-Jun)
730,000
[13]
Q3 (Jul-Sep)
940,000
[14]
Q4 (Oct-Dec)
5,400,000
[15]
Total (Life To Date)
8,260,000 (39,640,000)
[12] This quarter Microsoft decided to just not say anything about hardware. Seeing the revenue, it wasn't anything to note. It would be weird to not mention Xbox hardware units are up YOY as even with an ASP of $350 (impossible) Xbox would still be up YOY.
There was another $50 cut. Not really much else to say other than ASP should be in a range of $300-$320 depending how high sales spiked during the promotions.
I came to the following ASP. XB1: $317 which equaled $377,230,000 ($230,000 "off" as the revenue is rounded to the millions).
[13] Taken from here, the fiscal year result is "Xbox hardware revenue decreased 21%, mainly due to lower prices of consoles sold and a decline in volume of consoles sold." Xbox FY 2017 is lower than FY 2016.
Taken from here, the quarter result is "Xbox hardware revenue decreased 29%, driven by lower prices and a decline in volume of consoles sold." No idea why they mention hardware now. This is the worst quarter!
There was certainly a price promotion in June but because of the announcement of the Xbox One X the One S just stagnates. The ASP shouldn't be that different from the last quarter.
I came to the following ASP. XB1: $319 which equaled $232,870,000 ($130,000 "off" as the revenue is rounded to the millions).
[14] Taken from here, "Xbox hardware revenue decreased 48%, mainly due to a decline in volume of consoles sold and lower prices of consoles sold." It was around here that the 500GB went down to $279. Will lower the ASP a bit but it shouldn't be much. Other than that nothing happened.
I came to the following ASP. XB1: $303 which equaled $284,820,000 ($180,000 "off" as the revenue is rounded to the millions).
[15] Taken from here, "Xbox hardware revenue increased 14%, primarily due to the launch of Xbox One X." Xbox One X was $499 which would represent a massive ASP spike.
There was a leak for Xbox One X NPD November that put it over 430K. This holiday is also when Xbox One S would go below $200. At this point the ASP guessing is going to be hard as now the One X is going to have a big impact. In general, over the years, it's been assumed the One X averaged ~30% of sales after launch.
I came to the following ASP. XB1: $329 which equaled $1,775,000,000 ($0 "off" as the revenue is rounded to the millions). I estimate 1.7M X's were shipped.
2018
Quarter
Xbox One
Notes
Q1 (Jan-Mar)
1,040,000
[16]
Q2 (Apr-Jun)
1,110,000
[17]
Q3 (Jul-Sep)
1,640,000
[18]
Q4 (Oct-Dec)
5,090,000
[19]
Total (Life To Date)
8,880,000 (48,520,000)
[16] Literally nothing on hardware. Ugh
There were some $229/$249 deals on the S. Around here is where I feel the 500GB falls in favor of the 1TB as the PUBG and Sea of Thieves bundle were that. The X saw some love where for two weeks you could PUBG or Sea of Thieves free.
I came to the following ASP. XB1: $341 which equaled $354,980,000 ($20,000 "off" as the revenue is rounded to the millions).
[17] Literally nothing on hardware, again. At this point PUBG and Fortnite were so strong for Xbox they were driving growth alone.
This quarter saw the first Xbox One X promo to $449 and steeper One S cuts to $199 for the 500GB. ASP will be lower than Q1 and in turn higher units since revenue actually increased quarter over quarter.
I came to the following ASP. XB1: $327 which equaled $363,270,000 ($270,000 "off" as the revenue is rounded to the millions).
[18] Taken from here, "Xbox hardware revenue growth of 94%, against a low prior year comparable due to timing of the Xbox One X launch in the second quarter of fiscal year 2018." Nothing from this other than everything is up.
No price cuts this quarter so everything should be near MSRP.
I came to the following ASP. XB1: $338 which equaled $553,760,000 ($240,000 "off" as the revenue is rounded to the millions).
[19] Taken from here, "...offset in part by a decline in Xbox hardware of 19% due to the launch of Xbox One X in the second quarter of fiscal year 2018."
There were massive sales again this holiday going back to $199 and the One X was on sale for $399 for the entirety of Black Friday week through December.
I came to the following ASP. XB1: $281 which equaled $1,430,150,000 ($150,000 "off" as the revenue is rounded to the millions).
2019
Quarter
Xbox One
Notes
Q1 (Jan-Mar)
710,000
[20]
Q2 (Apr-Jun)
580,000
[21]
Q3 (Jul-Sep)
1,120,000
[22]
Q4 (Oct-Dec)
3,490,000
[23]
Total (Life To Date)
5,900,000 (54,420,000)
[20] Taken from here, "...offset in part by a decline in Xbox hardware of 33% primarily due to a decrease in volume of consoles sold." Nothing on lower prices so the ASP should be similar to last year or the units drop is massive the lower prices didn't matter as much.
The One X went to $399 in February with the Fallout 76 bundle. Only that bundle as others were still $499. The One S went to $249 a couple of times but never went as low as it did in 2018.
I came to the following ASP. XB1: $337 which equaled $239,080,000 ($80,000 "off" as the revenue is rounded to the millions).
[21] Taken from here, the fiscal year result is "...offset in part by a decline in Xbox hardware of 13% primarily due to a decrease in volume of consoles sold." So units are down from last fiscal year.
Taken from here, the quarter result is "Xbox hardware revenue declined 48%, primarily due to a decrease in volume of consoles sold." Units down from last year.
This quarter saw the release of the Xbox One S All Digital Edition at $249, but it was a limited release in the US that wouldn't expand until the holidays and no mention was made of it here so it shouldn't have had much impact. There were some price cuts but sales at this point weren't getting boosted by them.
I came to the following ASP. XB1: $325 which equaled $188,750,000 ($250,000 "off" as the revenue is rounded to the millions).
[22] Taken from here, "...driven by a decrease in Xbox hardware of 34%, primarily due to a decrease in volume of consoles sold." Units down again.
There was one week of a price cut but it was nothing, really. I think the Fallout bundle deal ended here so that should be $499 again. Everything should be close to MSRP.
I came to the following ASP. XB1: $327 which equaled $366,320,000 ($320,000 "off" as the revenue is rounded to the millions).
[23] Taken from here, "Xbox hardware revenue decreased 43%, primarily due to a decrease in volume and price of consoles sold." So ASP and units are down big time.
The SAD hit $149, One S $199, and One X $349. The SAD was also really popular this holiday.
I came to the following ASP. XB1: $235 which equaled $819,790,000 ($210,000 "off" as the revenue is rounded to the millions).
2020
Quarter
Xbox One
Xbox Series
Note
Q1 (Jan-Mar)
680,000
0
[24]
Q2 (Apr-Jun)
1,050,000
0
[25]
Q3 (Jul-Sep)
890,000
0
[26]
Q4 (Oct-Dec)
300,000
3,190,000
[27]
Total (Life To Date)
2,920,000 (57,340,000)
3,190,000
[24] Taken from here, "Xbox hardware revenue decreased 20%, primarily due to a decrease in price of consoles sold." So ASP went down while units not so much.
Now, this March is the start of the Covid 19 pandemic. Mid March is when the shit really hits and consoles start selling out. MS found it smart to also give the One X a permanent price drop to $399 after having a $299 promo in February.
I came to the following ASP. XB1: $283 which equaled $192,480,000 ($480,000 "off" as the revenue is rounded to the millions).
[25] Taken from here, the fiscal year result is "Xbox hardware revenue declined 31%, primarily due to a decrease in volume and price of consoles sold."
Taken from here, the quarter result is "Xbox hardware revenue increased 49%, primarily due to an increase in volume of consoles sold." Xbox is up from last year. This is thanks entirely to the pandemic.
The Xbox One X was pretty much sold at $299 this entire quarter and on June 5 the SAD went to $199 while supplies lasted. This would also be the last quarter the One X and SAD were shipped as only the One S was the remaining unit selling after June.
I came to the following ASP. XB1: $269 which equaled $282,000,000 ($0 "off" as the revenue is rounded to the millions).
[26] Taken from here, "Xbox hardware revenue declined 27%, driven by a decrease in volume of consoles sold ahead of new console launches."
The only thing shipped this quarter was the $299 Xbox One S. This is pretty easy to calculate.
I came to the following ASP. XB1: $300 which equaled $267,000,000 ($0 "off" as the revenue is rounded to the millions).
[27] Taken from here, "Xbox hardware revenue increased 86%, driven by higher price of consoles sold due to the Xbox Series X|S launches." Basically the ASP being higher is the reason for an increase.
Now here's a complicated quarter. What did Xbox Series ship? We have an idea. Leaks put XBS at 1.5M sold through in the US. Because of the pandemic, everything was (and is still) sold out. We also know XBS sales for all of January were only slightly over 100K. We can reasonably put US shipments in 2020 as 1.55M - 1.6M.
Ampere Analytics put XBS at 2.8M sold through in 2020 here, and following known lead times on shipments can be a few weeks off (PS4/5 had a 300,000 difference in sell through and shipments despite being sold out), we can assume total shipments of XBS exceed 3M and maybe slightly more.
Xbox Series has two SKU, the $499 X and $299 S. The split between both is assumed to be in the 70-80:30-20 range at this point, favoring the X.
I'm assuming a ~75:25 split for XBS this quarter leading to 2,400,000 X and 790,000 S which equaled $1,437,000,000 and the remaining revenue is Xbox One S.
2021
Quarter
Xbox One
Xbox Series
Notes
Q1 (Jan-Mar)
30,000
1,460,000
[28]
Q2 (Apr-Jun)
30,000
1,800,000
[29]
Q3 (Jul-Sep)
Q4 (Oct-Dec)
Total (Life To Date)
60,000 (57,400,000)
3,260,000 (6,450,000)
[28] Taken from here, "Xbox hardware revenue increased 232%, driven by higher price and volume of consoles sold due to the Xbox Series X|S launches."
This is the highest quarter revenue for hardware on record (going back to FY 2015).
From Ampere Analysis (here), XBS is estimated to have done ~1.2M sell through worldwide, LTD of ~4M. US sales are estimated somewhere in the ~500K-600K range from limited info. It's still sold out in this quarter so shipments wouldn't be much higher. This quarter is when the S started to become more available so I'll bump its share of the pie.
Xbox One has been dead at retail since December 2020. Nowhere is it being sold in any meaningful amount and really even 10K might be too much.
I'm assuming a ~65:35 split for XBS this quarter leading to 950,000 X and 510,000 S which equaled $628,000,000 and the remaining revenue is Xbox One S.
[29] Taken from here, the fiscal year result is "Xbox hardware revenue increased 92% driven by higher price of consoles sold due to the Xbox Series X|S launches."
Taken from here, the quarter result is "Xbox hardware revenue increased 172% driven by higher price and volume of consoles sold due to the Xbox Series X|S launches."
Microsoft also announced Xbox Series is the fastest selling Xbox ever (here). Here's the other Xbox consoles after 3 quarters:
Xbox: 3,900,000
Xbox 360: 5,000,000
Xbox One: ~5,500,000
From Ampere Analysis (here), XBS is estimated to have done ~1.35M sell through worldwide, LTD of ~5.3M. US sales are estimated somewhere in the ~600K-700K range from limited info.
Series S again became more available than the X and is starting to become a trend that the X is taking up less and less of the total share.
I'm assuming a ~60:40 split for XBS this quarter leading to 1,090,000 X and 710,000 S which equaled $758,000,000 and the remaining revenue is Xbox One S.
Roundup
So let's clear some things up for potential questions about this.
1. Isn't the gap between XBS sell through and shipments too big? Yes, but this assumes Ampere isn't underestimating sell through. Additionally, folks from Europe and elsewhere have been reporting the Series S is readily available there and has been for months. Entirely possible the Series S + some under estimating accounts for the gap. Series X is 100% sold out though. No one can buy that
Xbox One could be shipping more than I'm estimating, but where? It died at US retail in December 2020. UK sells next to nothing now. It's doubtful they were even manufacturing any this year.
2. So the 360 shipped more than PS3? That's what I estimate. Nothing ever pointed to the PS3 surpassing the Xbox 360, and I've seen some try and pass this EEDAR report around that proves the PS3 did pass the 360, but it's wildly inaccurate.
They have the PS3 at 87.8M at the end of 2015. Sony reported the PS3 shipped 87.4M by March 2017. 3DS is also massively under tracked by literal millions.
3. Xbox One over 50M by that much? Yeah. There's only so much variance in the ASP and I think I was pretty fair on how low the ASP went. But that's what's so great about all this. Literally everything I worked with is the same stuff you can work with. Don't find my numbers accurate? I gave you every source, every revenue number. Work it out yourself and see what you come up with.
And here's an easy place to see the per quarter sales of each console that I estimated.
Great work. Your Xbox One numbers make sense because someone actually asked Daniel Ahmad on Twitter - I don't remember if in 2019 or 2020 - if Xbox One was over 50 million and he said it had been "for a while" or something to that effect. It's definitely closer to 60 than to 50.
Great work. Your Xbox One numbers make sense because someone actually asked Daniel Ahmad on Twitter - I don't remember if in 2019 or 2020 - if Xbox One was over 50 million and he said it had been "for a while" or something to that effect. It's definitely closer to 60 than to 50.
That was during March 2020 when Zhuge said that X1 was over 50 mil. as a reaction to AMDs statement how they shipped chips in over 150 mil. consoles. BUT there was a problem. AMD used VGChartz numbers :
While cruising through the slides from AMD's recent financial analyst day I noticed something interesting: They sourced VG Chartz for their console sales data. I've seen a few websites through up headlines like "AMD: Consoles have sold 150 million units since 2013". Others have used simple...
www.resetera.com
Also, both PS4 and X1 sales declined heavily in 2020, more so X1 ( discountinued just 4 months after AMDs statement ). So, i doubt that X1 passed even 55 mil. Just as a reminder, PS4 passed 110 mil. sold units as of March 2020.
That was during March 2020 when Zhuge said that X1 was over 50 mil. as a reaction to AMDs statement how they shipped chips in over 150 mil. consoles. BUT there was a problem. AMD used VGChartz numbers :
While cruising through the slides from AMD's recent financial analyst day I noticed something interesting: They sourced VG Chartz for their console sales data. I've seen a few websites through up headlines like "AMD: Consoles have sold 150 million units since 2013". Others have used simple...
www.resetera.com
Also, both PS4 and X1 sales declined heavily in 2020, more so X1 ( discountinued just 4 months after AMDs statement ). So, i doubt that X1 passed even 55 mil. Just as a reminder, PS4 passed 110 mil. sold units as of March 2020.
Where else would they include other hardware revenue? I tried doing something similar with Sony's FY where hardware is just console sales and the numbers were notably below MSRP prices of PS4.
Things get even more anbiguous with next gen as there are two separately priced SKUs, so now you would need a weighted average, the assumptions being the weights which afaik we haven't got a global number for either Xbox or Playstation.
Below is my annual letter, published today in our Annual Report 2022. Dear shareholders, colleagues, customers, and partners: We are living through a period of historic economic, societal, and geopolitical change.
PS5 had a 63% market share in Microsoft's FY2021 Q1-3 PS5 Calendar Year 2020 Quarter 4: 4,500,000 PS5 Calendar Year 2021 Quarter 1: 3,300,000 Total: 7,800,000 7,800,000 / 0.63 = 12,380,000 Xbox Series = ~4,600,000 PS5 had a 54% market share in Microsoft's FY2022 Q1-3 PS5 Calendar Year 2021...
www.installbaseforum.com
In summary, Xbox Series October 2020 to March 2021 shipments were 4.6M, and Xbox July 2021 to March 2022 shipments were 7.8M
Monday, December 3, 2014Meydenbauer Center, Bellevue WA
web.archive.org
Finally, our gaming business is thriving with the Xbox One hitting 10 million units sold. I am thrilled to welcome Mojang and Minecraft community to Microsoft.
I've updated this thread a lot. The OP now has direct quotes from Microsoft's investor relations material relating to how hardware revenue was impacted for the quarter and fiscal year year to dates. I've also completely revamped this post with my up to date estimates, if you're curious.
They are selling less than xbox one, so they are doing bad. The numbers are not good.
Not to mention that we are talking about estimates, for all we know the numbers could be even lower
Are selling less than xbox one, so they are doing bad. Not to mention that we are talking about estimates, for all we know the numbers could be even lower
Uh ok. Want to point out why? I mean, I'm also the same guy that was saying Xbox One was closer to 60M years before that was confirmed, at the same time people were saying it was at best 50M. I'm not saying these are objectively correct numbers, but it wouldn't be incorrect of me to point out that year after year the typical assumption is Xbox being low and then it ends up being revealed years later to be higher than what most thought.
The numbers also have reasoning behind them in each quarter. Pick any quarter or time out and we can have a discussion.
Is this backed by something, apart your hope for it to be that way?
That is an honest question because when I see well argumented reasoning I try to follow them, even if my opinion is different
Like with @Astral_lion02 US projection
other times with some users it seems more a.matter of will and desire against or pro
would you prefer them to be lower, for example?
and if so: why?
Uh ok. Want to point out why? I mean, I'm also the same guy that was saying Xbox One was closer to 60M years before that was confirmed, at the same time people were saying it was at best 50M.
The numbers also have reasoning behind them in each quarter. Pick any quarter or time out and we can have a discussion.
We have Microsoft who said at the end of June 2023 that Xbox SX/SS were at 21+.
I don't think Microsoft sold/distributed 11+ million consoles in about a year, that is why I consider it an optimistic estimate.
For me, the sales are 1 to 2 million less than that, or little more.
In any case I think it is realistic enough to say that these estimate, in this case can only be revised downward and not upward.
We have Microsoft who said at the end of June 2023 that Xbox SX/SS were at 21+.
I don't think Microsoft sold/distributed 11+ million consoles in about a year, that is why I consider it an optimistic estimate.
For me, the sales are 1 to 2 million less than that, or little more.
In any case I think it is realistic enough to say that these estimate, in this case can only be revised downward and not upward.
From the person I got that info from who was at the BIG Festival when that slide was shown, they also told me that a MS guy confirmed that same slide was shown earlier at GDC. So that +21M is from March or earlier (GDC ran March 20-24, 2023).
Ampere had XBS at 21.3M sell through end of March 2023.
We have Microsoft who said at the end of June 2023 that Xbox SX/SS were at 21+.
I don't think Microsoft sold/distributed 11+ million consoles in about a year, that is why I consider it an optimistic estimate.
For me, the sales are 1 to 2 million less than that, or little more.
In any case I think it is realistic enough to say that these estimate, in this case can only be revised downward and not upward.
From the person I got that info from who was at the BIG Festival when that slide was shown, they also told me that a MS guy confirmed that same slide was shown earlier at GDC. So that +21M is from March or earlier (GDC ran March 20-24, 2023).
Ampere had XBS at 21.3M sell through end of March 2023.
Considering that distributed and unsold units cannot be more than 3 or 4 million units, by your estimates you are essentially saying that Xbox SX/SS SOLD to consumers, over 7-8 million consoles, in just over a year. I don't know, but I consider them to be slightly high figures. I still think Xbox Series X-S are at 29-30 million units distribuited today
Considering that distributed and unsold units cannot be more than 3 or 4 million units, by your estimates you are essentially saying that Xbox SX/SS SOLD to consumers, over 7-8 million consoles, in just over a year. I don't know, but I consider them to be slightly high figures. I still think Xbox Series X-S are at 29-30 million units distribuited today
Just going off Ampere's 21.3M, XBS US sales were 10.5M at the time. That's a 49.3% share for US sales. April 2023 - March 2024 XBS US sales were 3.7M. 50% share of that would mean 7.4M sold in 12 months.
There's also the unfortunate lack of recent Ampere numbers to look at, since Ampere projected XBS to hit ~27M by end of 2023 but we don't have the actual end of year report, and they've adjusted XBS up before after initial reporting. They had XBS end of 2022 at 18.5M and then later updated to 19.5M.
We also have this Take Two figure from IDG that says there were 81M Gen 9 consoles end of 2023. PS5 was at 54.8M shipped and if you want to be charitable to its sell through being 53M, that means IDG were seeing ~28M XBS end of 2023.
Just going off Ampere's 21.3M, XBS US sales were 10.5M at the time. That's a 49.3% share for US sales. April 2023 - March 2024 XBS US sales were 3.7M. 50% share of that would mean 7.4M sold in 12 months.
There's also the unfortunate lack of recent Ampere numbers to look at, since Ampere projected XBS to hit ~27M by end of 2023 but we don't have the actual end of year report, and they've adjusted XBS up before after initial reporting. They had XBS end of 2022 at 18.5M and then later updated to 19.5M.
We also have this Take Two figure from IDG that says there were 81M Gen 9 consoles end of 2023. PS5 was at 54.8M shipped and if you want to be charitable to its sell through being 53M, that means IDG were seeing ~28M XBS end of 2023.
The Take-Two report using IDG estimates had gen 9 at 77M at the end of 2023. I am pretty sure the 81 million figure was done during the earnings call for the quarter ending March 2024.
Sony has PS5 sell-through at 56M at the end of March 2024 (Likely rounded). PS5 was at 59.2M shipped for a gap between 2.7 - 3.7M, depending on the rounding.
The Take-Two report using IDG estimates had gen 9 at 77M at the end of 2023. I am pretty sure the 81 million figure was done during the earnings call for the quarter ending March 2024.
Sony has PS5 sell-through at 56M at the end of March 2024 (Likely rounded). PS5 was at 59.2M shipped for a gap between 2.7 - 3.7M, depending on the rounding.
The pic I posted was from May and Zelnick says the 81M is from end of last year. The slide that says 77M was reused in the next quarter earnings, but there is either 77M or 81M according to IDG. 81M is the more recent figure that is used for end of 2023.
That's an awful way to reason. We have had plenty of Circana leaks that were way off from Welfares estimates.
Going from Amperes ~27m estimate by end of 2023, I also think Xbox is actually ~2m lower now than what's estimated here.
That's an awful way to reason. We have had plenty of Circana leaks that were way off from Welfares estimates.
Going from Amperes ~27m estimate by end of 2023, I also think Xbox is actually ~2m lower now than what's estimated here.
I am not here speaking for them
I will just saynhe does a great work at gaining fata and adjusting them without bias while other just "think" or wish
He already responded even to the Ampere end23 data, I wonder what others have to said about that apart "no I think is this other way around"
Remember that everything started from "these are estimates so can be lower" while estimate by definition can be lower or higher being a range, unless there is a definitive data setting a flore and/or a roof
Argumented and neutral different opinions and projections are always welcome as for Astral in the Circana topic, but when it is clear an opinion is given always painting the worst possible scenario, providing opinions as facts, pointing also toward the complete failure of a company, is harder to judge those as reliable: those are the actual awful way of reasoning and behave imho
That's an awful way to reason. We have had plenty of Circana leaks that were way off from Welfares estimates.
Going from Amperes ~27m estimate by end of 2023, I also think Xbox is actually ~2m lower now than what's estimated here.
A new Ampere report would be very helpful in this regard, strange that they haven't reported anything for many months. In the end these are just estimates, Welfare could be right just as we could be right instead. The only thing I feel confident about is that Xbox ss/sx can't be above Welfare estimates, and that these estimates can be either confirmed or revised downward. Anyway i also think like you that Xbox ss/sx are at 29-30 million
That's an awful way to reason. We have had plenty of Circana leaks that were way off from Welfares estimates.
Going from Amperes ~27m estimate by end of 2023, I also think Xbox is actually ~2m lower now than what's estimated here.
Yup, I too think these estimates are on the optimistic end.
Ampere's 2023 estimate was made before the collapse of Xbox in the 2023 holidays, it was even before the November NPDs.
Also feel like Ampere is overestimating the amount of XBS sold outside US/UK. Their ratio of sales versus what we have from NPD/UK GFK gives a ratio of 0.54 in 2023, which again is before they knew about the full holiday collapse.
For reference XB1 is ~60%+ US+UK versus total shipments.
So Ampere had XBS at 27.1M end of 2023, I estimate it as 25M. This is sell in.
2023 Shipment is likely just 1M extra (low demand, even PS has lower channel buffers versus last gen) so 26M by end of 2023.
1.7-8M shipped so far in 2024 gives me a LTD rounded as 28M.
With ratio % errors and shipment leeway, I think 28-30M is the final shipment range at the end of Jun 2024.
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