Xbox Contents and Services + Hardware Revenue 2014 - Present (Update as of August 9, 2024)

[Astral_lion02]

Yup, I too think these estimates are on the optimistic end.
Ampere's 2023 estimate was made before the collapse of Xbox in the 2023 holidays, it was even before the November NPDs.

Also feel like Ampere is overestimating the amount of XBS sold outside US/UK. Their ratio of sales versus what we have from NPD/UK GFK gives a ratio of 0.54 in 2023, which again is before they knew about the full holiday collapse.

For reference XB1 is ~60%+ US+UK versus total shipments.

So Ampere had XBS at 27.1M end of 2023, I estimate it as 25M. This is sell in.
2023 Shipment is likely just 1M extra (low demand, even PS has lower channel buffers versus last gen) so 26M by end of 2023.

1.7-8M shipped so far in 2024 gives me a LTD rounded as 28M.
With ratio % errors and shipment leeway, I think 28-30M is the final shipment range at the end of Jun 2024.

25M Sell-in is too low when IDG have 81M for PS5+XBS Sell-through at the end of 2023.

81M - <55M = >26M.

If anything it's most likely that IDG and Ampere were undertracking Xbox.

Previous IDG estimate for EoY 2023 was this:

77M - <55M = >22M.

The main effect of IDG upward revision was to increase Xbox Series floor since with PS5 55M is in both case the absolute maximum given Sony Sell-in numbers.

The last time Ampere made a revision regarding to Xbox was to updrade total sell-through from 18.5M at the end of 2022 to 19.5M.

IDG and Ampere would not upgrade their numbers without data showing that they were previously undertracking consoles sales.

 

[enpleinjour]

25M Sell-in is too low when IDG have 81M for PS5+XBS Sell-through at the end of 2023.

81M - <55M = >26M.

If anything it's most likely that IDG and Ampere were undertracking Xbox.

Previous IDG estimate for EoY 2023 was this:

77M - <55M = >22M.

The main effect of IDG upward revision was to increase Xbox Series floor since with PS5 55M is in both case the absolute maximum given Sony Sell-in numbers.

The last time Ampere made a revision regarding to Xbox was to updrade total sell-through from 18.5M at the end of 2022 to 19.5M.

IDG and Ampere would not upgrade their numbers without data showing that they were previously undertracking consoles sales.

Are we sure Strauss is referring to end of calendar year or end of fiscal year?
End of fiscal year for them would be Mar 2024 right?

A 4M upward projection for just XBS would be a huge correction from IDG.

In terms of Ampere, yes that was in 2022. However in 2023 they gave us their projections before the holiday where a lot of us were surprised at how badly Xbox did. I would be very surprised if their estimates held as a result.

 

[Welfare]

Are we sure Strauss is referring to end of calendar year or end of fiscal year?
End of fiscal year for them would be Mar 2024 right?

A 4M upward projection for just XBS would be a huge correction from IDG.

In terms of Ampere, yes that was in 2022. However in 2023 they gave us their projections before the holiday where a lot of us were surprised at how badly Xbox did. I would be very surprised if their estimates held as a result.

IDG have a history of wonky initial estimates right when a year ends. 2015 is a notable example where they had PS3 at a LTD of 87.8M, 2 years before it ended at 87.4M. They also had 3DS millions below where it should have been at that point. Having PS5 too high or XBS too low at first wouldn't be out of the question.

And on the timing of Amperes projections I think that's a wash either way since they were released after the November Circana and before XBS corrected itself with a massive December fire sale which kept Q4 2023 only slightly lower than Q4 2022 in the US. UK was also flat that holiday quarter.

And just going off Ampere's estimates, US+UK LTD 2022 was 11.6M, or 59.5% of 19.5M. US+UK 2023 LTD is ~16.1M. 59-60% would mean a LTD of 26.8-27.3M.

 

[Lelouch0612]

Thanks for the work on the OP and the data crunching @Welfare

 

[TrunksWD]

As others have stated great work @Welfare! Especially with the limited amount of data available from Microsoft.

 

[Astral_lion02]

Something that might be interesting:



The tweet above said that 21M Xbox one S and X (likely just one S) were sold.

Then we have a picture with Xbox one at 22M including 14M from USA.

It's from a Microsoft conference that happened in October 3 2016:



So numbers have to be update as of June 2016.

 

[Welfare]

Something that might be interesting:



The tweet above said that 21M Xbox one S and X (likely just one S) were sold.

Then we have a picture with Xbox one at 22M including 14M from USA.

It's from a Microsoft conference that happened in October 3 2016:



So numbers have to be update as of June 2016.

You actually reminded me of that One S number, and yeah for a while I've had my estimates get to ~21M with only S by June 2019. If it were 21M S+X then I have no idea how XB1 would reach 57/58M. Not enough sales from 2013-2016 or after June 2019 to make up that gap. The best I can see XB1 at by June 2016 is ~24M, then after June 2019 the best I can see for XB1 is ~7.5M. 24 + 7.5 + 21M = 52.5M, well below where Microsoft would have it. The punctuation of Xbox One X, Xbox One S: 21M+ does lead me to believe it's only One S that 21M applies too.

I could use that as evidence in my post.

This is the breakdown I have for S/X starting from Q3 2016.

Quarter	Xbox One S	Xbox One S LTD	Xbox One X	Xbox One X LTD
2016 Q3 (Jul-Sep)	1,700,000	1,700,000	-	-
2016 Q4 (Oct-Dec)	5,300,000	7,000,000	-	-
2017 Q1 (Jan-Mar)	1,200,000	8,200,000	-	-
2017 Q2 (Apr-Jun)	800,000	9,000,000	-	-
2017 Q3 (Jul-Sep)	1,000,000	10,000,000	-	-
2017 Q4 (Oct-Dec)	3,900,000	13,900,000	1,600,000	1,600,000
2018 Q1 (Jan-Mar)	700,000	14,600,000	300,000	1,900,000
2018 Q2 (Apr-Jun)	800,000	15,400,000	300,000	2,200,000
2018 Q3 (Jul-Sep)	1,200,000	16,600,000	400,000	2,600,000
2018 Q4 (Oct-Dec)	4,200,000	20,800,000	1,200,000	3,800,000
2019 Q1 (Jan-Mar)	500,000	21,300,000	200,000	4,000,000
2019 Q2 (Apr-Jun)	500,000	21,800,000	100,000	4,100,000

I've also slightly adjusted up Q4 2017 and Q4 2018 because XB1 at a LTD of only 57.0M is a bit too low going by the Microsoft +79M XB1+XBS number.

For that 2016 presentation of 22M/14M, IIRC that was found out to source chartz. It's also got a similar issue to the One S and X being 21M or not. If XB1 were only 22M by that point, it's not even reaching 54M.